Political Settlement Research Articles

Relations between the State and Business in the Conditions of the “Developmental State”

Aim. To identify the mechanism of state regulation of private enterprise initiative operating in the “developmental states” of East and Southeast Asia, which ensures consistently high rates of economic growth and an increase in public welfare.Tasks. Based on a comparative analysis, to determine the characteristic features of the model of relations between the state and business in the “developmental states”, to reveal its strengths and weaknesses, the role of the ruling elite in its functioning.Methods. The central concept is the “developmental state”, the elements of which are revealed by Zia Onish, the concepts of “planned-rational state” (C. Johnson), “built-in autonomy” (P. Evans), “neopatrimonial state”, “cohesive capitalist state” and “fragmented multi-class state” (A. Koli). The model of the relationship between the state and business is based on works related to Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.Results. It has been established that in “developmental states” the relations between the state and business are built into the political structure of society, in which centralized governance allows states to ensure political stability, reduce transaction costs for private entities, motivate entrepreneurship and create additional opportunities for economic development, and as a result - increasing the welfare of society.Conclusions. The example of the countries of East and Southeast Asia shows that the success of a “developmental state” is possible only when the political settlement enables the ruling elites to have the law enforcement capabilities to conduct an effective, nationally-oriented industrial policy necessary for the further improvement of the country’s technological capabilities. The rapid economic development of “developmental states”, which has led to talk of a “miracle”, raises the question of the possibility of using this experience in other regions of the world, including the EAEU countries.

The Political Economy of Shock-Responsive Social Protection: Analysis from Malawi

Using social assistance systems to address acute needs arising from wide-scale shocks – commonly known as ‘shock-responsive social protection’ (SRSP) – raises significant political economy questions. Previously, acute needs caused by disasters across sub-Saharan Africa have primarily been met by humanitarian actors alone. SRSP disrupts the status quo by reducing humanitarian actors’ access to and control over humanitarian funding. This raises significant political questions; likewise, the introduction by SRSP of greater accountability and transparency into the implementation of humanitarian responses. This article addresses a current gap in the literature: the politics of SRSP. Referencing the concept of political settlements, the article asks what explains the evolution of SRSP in Malawi by examining the actions of domestic and international actors. It finds that there is scant evidence of national ownership of SRSP and that lack of consensus among international actors is a key obstacle to the concept becoming embedded within the political settlement.

Mapping disability in war-to-peace transitions: global patterns and the Lebanese experience

The inclusion of people with disabilities can facilitate sustainable peace after civil war. To shed a novel light on the relationship between war-to-peace transitions and disability, we map approaches to impairments in 286 worldwide intra-state political agreements, before considering the experience of Lebanon. Through a rigorous mixed methods research design, we show that war-to-peace transitions entrench the marginalisation of people with disabilities. Political agreements reproduce oversimplified understandings of disability; emphasise war-related physical impairments over non-physical and congenital ones; and prioritise support for former combatants. In Lebanon, disability-related legislation suffers from similar blind spots and remains unimplemented because of lack of financial resources, of weak capacity and cooperation among responsible local and international agencies, and of the features of the local political settlement. We discuss some significant implications for the lives of people with disabilities and their families, before providing recommendations to promote inclusive war-to-peace transitions. POINTS OF INTEREST Peace processes provide a crucial window of opportunity to build more inclusive societies. At a global level, civil war peace agreements overlook people with disabilities. Even when they mention impairments, peace accords adopt over­simplified understandings of disability, prioritise war-related physical impairments over non-physical and congenital ones, and emphasise interventions in support of former combatants. In Lebanon, lack of financial resources, weak capacity and cooperation among responsible local and international agencies, and local political dynamics further constrain the implementation of disability-focused policies. Globally, discourses on transition between civil war and a peaceful and just future, remain ableist and disempowering.

Toward an Understanding of Economic Development in Post-2003 Iraq

Citizen inclusion in politics and voluntary organizations, a vibrant press and media, regular elections, or greater “political inclusion” more generally are often presented—both by international organizations as well as some researchers—as elements likely, even necessary, to promote “economic inclusion” and a more equitable distribution of material benefits. We avoid structural approaches that emphasize oil and instead utilize institutional analysis to understand Iraq’s post-2003 economic and social trajectory. Specifically, we analyze how Iraq’s post-2003 political settlement along with its already deteriorating economic institutions and unfavorable economic and social conditions have combined to shape poor economic outcomes. We show, using the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators as well as other data that the more inclusive political institutions that were established in Iraq post-2003 have worked to impede economic development and inclusion. That is, increased political openness and inclusion has not resulted in greater economic inclusion; instead, Iraq’s political institutions have worked to constrain economic inclusion and a more egalitarian distribution of oil income. This revisits a classic debate in development economics and casts doubt on the reliability of the often-promoted relationship between political pluralism and economic development.

Bringing the state back in the lithium triangle: An institutional analysis of resource nationalism in Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia

International efforts to tackle climate change have ignited a global surge in demand for the “critical metals” that are used in the production of lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles (EVs). Among them, lithium represents a critical strategic component that is concentrated in only a limited number of extractive zones. In theory, limited availability and strong demand creates favourable conditions for producer states. In practice, many states have struggled to nationalize the production of battery-grade lithium, reflecting the dominant role that multinational corporations play in the sector. This paper explores the strategies that producer states in Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia have used to navigate this rapidly changing dynamic, making the case that the recent surge in demand for battery metals has created new opportunities for challenging the oligopoly of multinational capital but the ability of governments to reorient production linkages for enhancing incomes, technical capacity, and economic opportunity in the production of lithium derivatives remains structurally and historically constrained by the institutional legacies of nationalization and social mobilization that vary across the three states. Drawing upon the “political settlements” literature, we contend that national and subnational efforts to exert greater control over the lithium sector can be attributed to the institutional legacy of political contestation and the role of social actors in crafting new power configurations that challenge dominant state-business coalitions.

Going ‘cold turkey’: Oil addiction and ‘traumatic’ decarbonization in fragile fossil fuel producers

Decarbonization, or the replacement of fossil fuels by renewables or ‘cleaner’ forms of energy, is an essential response to global warming. A gap in the debate on decarbonization is its implications for fragile fossil fuel-producing states (FFFPs). Unable to implement strategies for planned decarbonization, FFFPs face the prospect of rapid, unmanaged ‘traumatic’ decarbonization. This paper examines the political economy of this phenomenon drawing on six countries that have experienced dramatic losses in carbon revenues in the recent past: Ecuador, Iraq, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela. It also draws on two thematic papers – on peace-making during oil shocks and a review of the literature on energy transition in fragile states. The paper finds that in decarbonizing FFFPs, the rules of the political game tend to be ‘sticky’ and elites react to the loss of oil revenues by looking for alternate sources of rent and turning to coercion. Political settlements including peace agreements are structured around the allocation of oil rents to elites and their future viability is in question. We find only modest evidence for sustainable and democratic paths away from a carbon-based political settlement, despite the efforts of civic movements.

Explaining institutional change in Nepal and El Salvador: A cultural political economy approach to political settlements analysis

AbstractUnderstanding progressive institutional change remains a central concern in development studies. This paper examines two such cases: constitutional change in Nepal, which broadened political rights, and the outlawing of metal mining in El Salvador, which redistributed resources. To understand institutional change, this paper proposes a cultural political economy approach to Khan's ‘political settlements analysis’. Applying the proposed approach to these cases demonstrates how political movements organise around beliefs and identities as well as interests to achieve rights and status, not just material gain. Identifying cultural as well as material sources of power allows a fuller explanation of institutional change processes.

The political economy of energy transitions in Africa: Coalitions, politics and power in Tanzania

The understanding of the political economy of energy transitions in lower-income African countries is little developed. A focus on coalitions has emerged as a promising approach, but it was largely developed based on experiences from higher-income countries. This article has two interrelated purposes. First, it explores and develops the coalition approach to the study of the prioritisation between energy sources in lower-income countries by combining it with a political settlement framework that has been adapted to analysing energy transitions. Secondly, it researches the promotion and implementation of non-hydro renewable energy in mainland Tanzania as a case. The article covers the period from 2008, when the first potent coalitions around private non-hydro renewable energy emerged, up until today. Until recently, these coalitions were overtaken by stronger coalitions around state-owned gas and hydropower. Only with a new president and administration in power and a donor that was pragmatic with regard to state ownership did a large-scale solar plant materialize. Based on the Tanzanian example, the article argues first, that large-scale energy projects are of such importance politically that the analysis of coalitions at the sector level must take into account how these coalitions are embedded in a country's broader distribution of power. Secondly, that for renewable energy policies and projects to get implemented they must fit with the priorities and ideas about broader development held by a country's ruling political elite. A number of implications for the study of the political economy of energy transitions are further unfolded in the article.

Understanding power, culture and institutional change: a revised approach to political settlements analysis

ABSTRACT The institutions that govern how we distribute resources, protect rights, and accord status are widely recognised as important for progressive development outcomes. Political settlements analysis is an increasingly influential framework for (post)institutional analysis within development studies, arguing that institutions and their outcomes are shaped by political economy relations of power. This article builds on the strengths of political settlements analysis (PSA) but argues that its strongly materialist foundations overlook the role of social identity, status and moral beliefs in shaping institutional change. Future research employing PSA needs rebalancing, incorporating an understanding of power relations as ideational as well as material and based on cultural as well as political and economic sources. Drawing on insights from cultural political economy, this article presents an alternative approach to power in PSA. This emphasises the contingency inherent in meaning-making processes and conceives of power as embedded in cultural understandings, as well as political organisation and economic control. Adopting this cultural political economy approach to power allows PSA to produce a fuller understanding of the causal mechanisms generating institutional change.

Regional security and the role of regional players

The article examines the importance and necessity of creating a new international organization designed to take on the role of ensuring regional security. As an example, the Astana process to resolve the Syrian crisis, which was created with the participation of Russia, Iran and Turkey, is considered. Thus, the countries demonstrated the ability to take responsibility for ensuring regional security in the conflict zone. Russia, Iran and Türkiye were able to develop specifi c ways to resolve this crisis situation. Using the experience of the Astana format, such major players as Russia, Türkiye and Iran could find ways to solve other international problems. And here they may be joined by another influential world power — China. The strength of the new international security architecture will depend on these states. China has long played an important role in maintaining global stability. And here we can note the special role of mediation diplomacy, which has recently become the most striking calling card of Chinese diplomacy. Thus, in March 2023, with the participation of China, a historic reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran took place. In light of the recent escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli confl ict, China has published a position paper on a political solution to the crisis. The document off ers recommendations to resolve the problem, namely, a complete cessation of hostilities, protection of civilians, provision of humanitarian assistance, strengthening diplomatic mediation and the search for a political settlement. The authors come to the conclusion that, taking into account the accumulated experience in fi nding ways to resolve acute regional conflicts, and by joining forces, Russia, China, Iran and Türkiye are able to create an international structure for resolving crisis situations, which will become a guarantor for ensuring international security and stability.

Intermediary organizations, international cooperation and the changing social contract: Morocco’s new development model

ABSTRACT In 2021, King Mohammed VI’s appointed commission released a new vision for Moroccan state-society relations: the New Development Model (Nouveau Modèle de Développement, NMD). Presented as a ‘national collective and federative project’, it entailed a social protection system called a ‘social pact’ or ‘social contract’. The King’s vision articulated in the NMD promises changes that many Moroccans have long been calling for. The government has created several intermediary organizations mandated to work on reforms, which reflect citizens’ expectations but keep the pace of change under control. From an international cooperation perspective, these bodies are potential partners for reforms and achieving common development objectives. This article addresses two related questions: what scope of action do Moroccan intermediary organizations have to press for changes to the social contract under the NMD? Do they require international support in fulfilling their roles as change makers? Our analytical framework is based on scholarship exploring political settlements and institutional mandates in neo-patrimonial political systems. We focus on three intermediary organizations relevant to the deliverables of the social contract and discuss the extent to which they push the limits of their mandates to facilitate change. We then turn to the support that international development cooperation could provide.

The Rise of India's Second Republic

Abstract: At first glance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s narrow 2024 general election victory—a win only made possible thanks to the cooperation of alliance partners—suggests a return to a previous era of coalition government in India. While the ruling party may be weakened, the nature of the political order has fundamentally shifted in ways that will have a lasting impact on Indian democracy. India is witnessing the dawn of a "Second Republic," an inflection point that is equal in magnitude to the constitutional moment in 1950, when India's "First Republic" was established. Several elements of the Second Republic were visible prior to these elections, and the BJP's narrow victory has not dislodged them. The nature of electoral democracy, liberal constitutionalism, national identity, secularism, and federalism have all undergone significant transformations. Yet, true to India's nature, its new political settlement cannot be readily captured using simple binary distinctions.

Distinction between law enforcement activity and military activity in article 298(1)(b) of UNCLOS: Commentary on recent international decisions

The war between Russia and Ukraine has brought the previously dormant military activity exception back into the spotlight. Yet, considering the sensitivity of military actions and the multifaceted functions performed by warships and coast guard vessels in practice, one may question whether a viable standard for distinguishing between law enforcement activity and military activity is possible at all. Therefore, instead of focusing on the intricacies of legal doctrines, it might be helpful to look at the issue from the perspective of the role of international judicial bodies in dealing with disputes with wide political ramifications. While it is always possible for courts and tribunals to identify legal issues arising from a broader political context, it must be recognized that piecemeal judicial solution is a poor substitute for political dispute settlement mechanisms. The harsh truth remains that, in a decentralized legal system dominated by the will of states, judicial restraint is perhaps the only way forward for international adjudication.

Modernizing cocoa production in Ghana: successes, constraints, and future possibilities of innovation diffusion in the cocoa sector

ABSTRACT This paper employs the political settlement framework, diffusion theory, and data generated through a mixed methods design to examine the adoption of innovations and technology in Ghana’s cocoa sector, with particular reference to the Juaboso district, a major cocoa producing area. The findings indicate that while most farmers have adopted improved cocoa planting methods in rows, the use of hybrid varieties and application of chemicals because of perceived benefits of these innovations and state support in adopting them, the use of fertilizers on cocoa farms is very low due to political economy issues, economic challenges, and neopatrimonialism. Historically, corrupt state politicians have used the fertilizer subsidy programme to strengthen patronage networks and reward crony capitalists. We conclude that the socio-political dimension of innovation-diffusion overrides the technical-economic reasons often cited in the literature for the failure of cocoa farmers to adopt these technologies. Addressing neopatrimonialism and recent politicization of input distribution is needed to enhance adoption of innovation and improved technology in Ghana’s cocoa sector.

The Political Settlements Dataset: Power Configurations and Political Blocs in the Global South, 1946-2018

Political scientists have long sought to understand power dynamics across the Global South, but efforts to systematically capture political power have been limited, and existing datasets have faced conceptual and measurement challenges. The Political Settlements (PolSett) dataset was developed to address these issues. This original expert survey-based dataset includes over one hundred political economy variables coded for forty two countries from 1946 or independence to 2018 (totalling 2,718 country years). It allows for a detailed mapping of countries’ power configurations, capturing information on the relative size, power and social composition of competing political blocs in society, as well as their internal cohesion, accountability relations and distribution of benefits. The dataset is expected to enable more direct and rigorous analyses of power differentials in the Global South and their impact on political and economic developments. This letter describes the conceptual background of the dataset, how it was constructed, discusses its validity, and highlights some of its key features.

Lessons for Israel's Gaza War In America's Strategic Blunders

AbstractLessons learned from counterterrorism operations indicate that purely military solutions are doomed to fail, and Israel is primed to repeat many of these mistakes. The comparison between America's post‐9/11 wars and the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict is not perfect: Al‐Qaeda was in Afghanistan but was not native to the country, and the transnational ISIS emerged out of the chaos in Iraq and Syria. Hamas, by contrast, represents a resistance movement indigenous to Gaza. The militant group is deeply rooted in the political and social struggle for Palestinian self‐determination, and its activities and support are motivated by desperate conditions on the ground. If Israel's assaults on Gaza in retaliation for the October 2023 Hamas bloodbath are to achieve enduring security, key questions arise, including whether the conflict will end with military occupation or political settlement. I argue that Israel should learn from the US strategic blunders in Afghanistan and Iraq. Absent a political solution, Israelis are likely to face terrorist assaults in the future. The military campaign may weaken or impair Hamas's infrastructure and power bases in Gaza, but without a plan for governance and development, Israel is likely to face the re‐emergence of a broadly based resistance movement.

Securing the peace or renegotiating the political settlement? Understanding popular support for post-conflict constitutions

ABSTRACT How do ordinary citizens view elite-driven, post-conflict constitutional reforms? Established theories emphasize the role of constitutional reform in both postwar democratization and preventing conflict resurgence. This article contends that emphasis on fostering political inclusion and settling conflicts resonates differently across post-conflict societies. Focusing on Nepal, this study draws on a survey implemented with over 1,000 respondents shortly after the ratification of the country’s constitution in 2015. The exploratory analysis shows that even when post-conflict constitutions grant greater rights to historically marginalized groups in absolute terms, they may still perceive that greater concessions would be possible; this makes such groups more likely to oppose the constitution and more likely to prefer extended negotiation periods. Conversely, Nepalis exposed to higher violence during the Maoist insurgency from 1996 to 2006 view the constitution as the conclusion of the peace process and are more supportive of the constitution and opposed to longer negotiation periods. The analysis further highlights that some excluded groups were less likely to learn about constitutional negotiations at all. We identify new pathways influencing the democratic legitimacy of post-conflict constitutions, offering insights for internal and external stakeholders involved in constitutional reform processes and their aftermath.

Opportunity Hoarding and Elite Reproduction: School Segregation in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Abstract School integration is an important indicator of equality of opportunity and racial reconciliation in contemporary South Africa. Despite its prominence in public and political discourse, however, there is no systemic evidence on the levels and patterns of school segregation. Drawing on the literature on the post-apartheid political settlement and sociological theories of opportunity hoarding, we explain how the small White minority and, to a lesser extent, the new Black middle class monopolized access to South Africa’s most prestigious schools following the abolition of de jure segregation in 1994. Using the 2021 Annual School Survey—an administrative dataset covering all South African schools—and the 2019 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study school survey, we find very high levels of school segregation along racial as well as socioeconomic lines. White students almost exclusively attend former White schools, have little exposure to the low-income Black majority, and are vastly overrepresented in elite public and private schools. We argue that in South Africa and other contexts with under-resourced education systems, elite capture of the few high-performing schools serves to reproduce race and class privilege.

Political Settlement and China’s Overseas Operation: The Case of Ethiopia

Abstract Political settlement analysis (PSA) has become a common approach scholars use to study socioeconomic differences among African countries. However, less attention has been given to how political settlement influences how African countries interact with their foreign counterparts. In this article, we illustrate the impact of political settlement on foreign policy by analyzing Ethiopia’s interactions with China. As one of China’s closest economic partners in Africa, Ethiopia, with its long-standing ethnic cleavages and political instability in the last few years, represents an ideal case for this topic. We find that the evolving political settlement in Ethiopia has greatly influenced the official engagements between the two countries. Over time, various Chinese actors have also developed a more nuanced understanding of the political dynamics of Ethiopia and the associated risks of investing in the country. Our study contributes to an emerging literature that emphasizes the power of local agencies in influencing China–Africa relations.

Does decentralisation promote learning? Local political settlements and education policies in Indonesia

ABSTRACT This article examines the effect of local political settlements on education policies in a decentralised political system. Under what conditions does decentralisation promote learning-enhancing policies? Despite the numerous works on decentralisation and education, little is known about how local politics influences student learning. We develop a novel approach to the politics of education policies by looking at the effect of local political settlements on education policymaking. Using a heuristic case study method comparing three districts in Indonesia, we found that constraints on the discretionary power of the district head over employment decisions in the bureaucracy matter for the development of learning-enhancing policies. Such a constraint can pave the way for the development of the bureaucratic capacity required for local governments to pursue quality-promoting reforms. In the absence of such a constraint, the extent to which district governments will implement learning-enhancing policies depends on district heads’ commitment to learning.