Political Preferences Research Articles

Impact of higher income on environmental interest

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between income levels and pro-environmental behavior using a utility customer survey. Amid urgent environmental challenges like pollution and climate change, it investigates how household income influences such behavior. Respondents were divided into high-income (90% or above) and lower income (below 90%) groups. While results were inconclusive, indicating no significant inclination toward pro-environmental behavior in higher-income groups, commonalities in perceived behaviors were observed. Notable differences included larger household sizes, greater satisfaction with natural gas utilities, and longer residency among higher-income respondents. However, factors like age, political preferences, and utility satisfaction showed no significant disparity. Although the high-income group was slightly more inclined toward energy-saving measures, both groups prioritized energy conservation similarly. Income-related discrepancies in self-awareness regarding home efficiency compared to neighbors were negligible. This study augments existing research but suggests the necessity for further research across different jurisdictions and timeframes to measure income’s impact.

The Rule of Law in Red and Blue: Affective Polarization and Support for Legal Institutions in the United States

A defining feature of democracies is an independent legal system, where elites and the public alike accept the broader legitimacy of its actions, even if they run counter to political preferences. Existing scholarship suggests that public support for rule of law institutions is rooted in perceptions of procedural fairness. However, amid increasing levels of affective polarization, we posit a partisan presidential heuristic wherein citizens’ views of legal institutions are influenced by their partisanship and signals from the president. Through multiple experiments, we demonstrate that support for two key institutions—the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice—is substantially derived from the intersection of one’s partisan identity and their partisan proximity to the president. These effects are strongest among respondents exhibiting high levels of affective partisanship. Our results suggest that in forming perceptions of the rule of law, partisan politics is increasingly competing with perceptions of procedural fairness, thereby subverting support for legal institutions in the United States.

Embattlement and Resilience Among White Evangelical Democrats

Why do individuals defect from the partisan pull of their social identities? Previous explanations of social sorting often neglect to account for these defectors whose partisanship cannot be explained by simply tallying up their social identities. I call these individuals political heretics. To better understand this phenomenon, I leverage white evangelicals, one of the most socially and politically sorted groups in the United States, who support the Democratic Party as a case study. I find that, based upon 68 face-to-face interviews across seven churches, two explanations emerge that explain their heresy. First, some find their way into Democratic congregations that shield them from the pressure exerted by residing in a religious tradition that has undergone extensive political sorting. Second, some choose to remain in predominately Republicans churches and offset the cost of this political pressure with some other benefit. However, for those who choose the latter, electing to remain in a church where they are in the political minority, they face significant headwinds to either update their political preferences or leave. Despite these embattled defectors choosing to remain in Republican congregations, the pressure of polarization may eventually force them out.

Political Choices of Muhammadiyah Citizens as a Muslim Minority in the 2018 Bali Governor Election in Indonesia

Purpose: the primary aim of this study is to explore how the Muhammadiyah community in Bali, a minority Muslim group, engaged in the 2018 Bali gubernatorial election to assert and navigate their political identity. This research seeks to understand the impact of their political participation within the broader dynamics of identity politics in a predominantly non-Muslim setting. Theoretical Reference: the study is framed within theories of political identity and political communication, which provide insights into how identities are formed, communicated, and leveraged in political contexts. These theories help elucidate the complex interactions between minority groups and the political environment, particularly in areas where identity politics play a significant role. Method: A qualitative descriptive approach was employed to capture the political preferences and behaviors of Muhammadiyah members during the 2018 gubernatorial election. Data was gathered through interviews, focus groups, and analysis of campaign materials and public statements. This method enabled a detailed and nuanced understanding of the Muhammadiyah community's political engagement. Results and Conclusion: the findings indicate that Muhammadiyah members actively participated in the election, using it as a platform to advocate for their political and social interests. Their engagement was shaped by their minority status and the need to assert their identity in a socio-political landscape dominated by different religious and cultural norms. The election outcomes revealed both the challenges and opportunities faced by Muhammadiyah in navigating identity politics in Bali. Implications of Research: this study highlights the critical role of minority religious communities in shaping political landscapes, even in regions where they do not form the majority. Understanding these dynamics is essential for policymakers, political leaders, and civil society organizations that aim to foster inclusive political processes. It also underscores the importance of effective political communication strategies that cater to diverse communities. Originality/Value: this research contributes to the limited literature on the political behavior of Islamic organizations like Muhammadiyah in regional politics, particularly within non-Muslim majority regions. It offers a unique insight into how identity politics and minority status influence political engagement and communication, adding depth to the discussions on multiculturalism and political inclusion in Southeast Asia.

The effect of different extreme weather events on attitudes toward climate change.

Can exposure to extreme weather change political opinion and preferences about climate change? There is a growing literature on both the effects of extreme weather events and the factors explaining attitudes toward global warming, though there remains no clear consensus about whether being exposed to extreme weather influences public opinion about climate change. We contribute to this literature by studying the impact of a variety of extreme weather events associated with climate variability, including severe storms, floods, fires, and hurricanes, on attitudes toward climate change. Specifically, we use a three-wave panel survey and a dynamic difference-in-differences design to analyze public opinion data at the individual level in the US. We find that exposure to only one extreme weather type-fires-has a small but significant effect on acknowledging the existence of climate change and supporting the need for action. However, that impact quickly vanishes, and other types of extreme weather do not appear to have any effect on opinion.

By the people, for the people: Local government's representation of voter preferences under the Affordable Care Act

AbstractDecentralized government is hypothesized to lead public service investments to better align with political preferences across geographical regions, yet there has been limited rigorous testing of this hypothesis. We examine how local public provision of hospital services varied according to political preferences between 2006 and 2016. We use state Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as a source of exogenous variation. Consistent with the motivation for federalism, we find that areas less supportive of the ACA tended to convert the state expansion into lower property taxes with lower public hospital expenditures, whereas, in states that expanded Medicaid, local governments tended to increase public provision of healthcare.

The Enforcement of Political Norms

Abstract Democracies generate norms prescribing what behaviours and preferences are deemed acceptable. But what keeps these political norms in place? We expect that they are enforced by observers who disapprove of norm-breaching behaviour and are willing to apply sanctions that make it socially costly. We test this expectation with a survey in Spain, where respondents were shown pictures of individuals with different political views. We focus on norms against radical-right preferences, one of the most established political norms. In line with our expectations, individuals disapprove of radical-right preferences more than other political preferences. This makes them more likely to socially sanction those preferences, which they do mainly in indirect ways that do not force interaction with the person breaching the norm. We provide evidence on the individual-level predictors of norm enforcement. Our findings highlight the micro-level mechanisms by which social influence affects the behaviour of democratic citizens.

Socioeconomic marginalization and political preferences: evidence from Palestinian Arabs in Israel

AbstractWe examine the relationship between socioeconomic characteristics and voting patterns among Arabs in Israel. We combine panel data on sixty-three Arab localities with election results and socioeconomic indicators for seven election years between 1996 and 2015. Exploiting the variation in political preferences and socioeconomic status across localities and over time, we find that the trends in Arab turnout are consistent with the substantive representation and political exclusion theories: that is, the representation of Arabs in Jewish-majority parties contributed to turnout, while the events of the second Intifada, which included clashes between Arabs in Israel and the Israeli police, were associated with a long-term decline in turnout. We also found that the preference for Arab parties over Left-wing Zionist parties is related to the instrumental voting theory. As the socioeconomic status of Arabs in Israel improved, they were less dependent on Jewish-majority parties for public goods provision and thus had less reason to support them. These findings contribute to understanding the experience of minorities in other contexts and to policymakers in Israel and beyond.

The Political Representation of Women Politicians from Mass-Based Islamic Parties in Palembang City Regarding the Low Representation of Women in Legislative Bodies (A Study on the PAN and PKS Parties in Palembang City)

The background of this research provides an in-depth understanding of the representation of female politicians from Islamic mass-based parties in Palembang, highlighting the ongoing issue of insufficient female representation. Despite the implementation of a 30% quota, women's representation in parliament does not reach this threshold due to various obstacles to political participation. This research specifically examines the representation of female politicians in the PAN and PKS parties in Palembang to understand both the presence of female politicians in the city and the central-level policies supporting women in the region. In Palembang, the PAN party allocates a 38% quota for female politicians, while the PKS party allocates a 30% quota. This study employs descriptive qualitative methods and was conducted in Palembang. Data were collected through in-depth interviews using purposive sampling techniques. Primary data sources include interviews, while secondary data sources include literature reviews. The findings reveal that in the PAN party, women have a 38% quota, supported by an organization called National Mandate Women (PUAN) that handles recruitment. In the PKS party, the women's quota is 30%, with recruitment conducted through various channels, including assessments of cadres' abilities and expertise. The 2019 elections showed a shift, with women becoming more independent in their political decisions, previously influenced by men's political preferences.

Redefining the Communication Dynamics in Bolsonaro’s Brazil: Media Consumption and Political Preferences

In this article, we contend that understanding Brazil’s current communicative landscape requires a closer examination of the relevance of legacy media outlets, challenging the widely accepted “traditional media bypass” thesis, which posits that social media platforms have overtaken traditional media as the primary influencers of political discourse, an argument often used to explain the rise of extreme-right ideologies across different national contexts. In order to test the association between voting preferences and the use of different types of media, we employ logistic regression analysis using data from a recent survey that includes numerous questions about the information and media consumption habits of Brazilian voters. Our findings highlight that legacy media, particularly broadcast TV channels like Globo, Record, and SBT, remain dominant in Brazil as sources of political information. Contrary to the bypass thesis, Bolsonaro’s supporters, while favoring social media, also consume significant amounts of legacy media. Analysis reveals stark differences in media preferences between the supporters of different political candidates, challenging the notion of an exclusive reliance on social media by right-wing supporters. The data also indicate nuanced media consumption habits, such as a preference for certain TV channels and fact-checking behaviors, underscoring the complex interplay between legacy and social media.

How and why aversive personality is expressed in political preferences.

Political orientation reflects beliefs, opinions, and values that are, at least in part, rooted in stable interindividual differences. Whereas evidence has accumulated with regard to the relevance of basic personality dimensions, especially concerning the sociocultural dimension of political ideology, less attention has been paid to the more specific dispositional tendency to assign a higher weight to one's own utility above others' (i.e., socially aversive personality), which is likely to play a pivotal role concerning the economic dimension of political ideology in particular. In three studies with over 66,000 participants from 38 countries, we show that individuals with elevated levels in aversive personality tend to endorse more right-wing political orientations in terms of a single left-right dimension, hold relevant ideological beliefs tied to both sociocultural and economic conservatism, and report corresponding electoral voting behavior. We further provide support for the idea that this overlap between a dispositional tendency toward aversive behavior and a right-wing political orientation can be attributed to shared belief systems. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

The unsettled effect of physical height on political preferences

The unsettled effect of physical height on political preferences

Explaining Rural Conservatism: Political Consequences of Technological Change in the Great Plains

Rural areas are conservative electoral strongholds in the United States and other advanced capitalist economies. But this was not always the case. What explains the rise of rural conservatism? This paper argues that technological change transformed not only agriculture but rural political preferences during the twentieth century. It studies a natural experiment: the post-World War II introduction of new irrigation technologies, which enabled farmers to irrigate otherwise arid land in the Great Plains using groundwater. Difference-in-differences analyses exploiting the shock’s differential impact on counties overlying the Ogallala Aquifer—a pattern validated with remote-sensing data—show that technological change contributed significantly to the region’s long-term conservative electoral transformation. Additional analyses, including comparison of individual policy preferences inside/outside the Ogallala Aquifer boundary, suggest that this was due to the rise of capital-intensive agriculture and the growing power of agribusiness. The findings demonstrate how new technologies made new politics in rural America.

Who Do the Socially Mobile Vote For? A Longitudinal Analysis of Intergenerational Mobility and Political Preferences

Social mobility has become a key public policy issue across the Western world. But who do the upwardly and downwardly mobile vote for? Does their voting behaviour remain the same as their peers in their social origin class, or does it quickly assimilate to mimic the behaviour of others at their social destination? This article presents new, longitudinal evidence on this issue, documenting how the link between social origin, destination and political voting behaviour varies during adult life. We find individuals who move up the social ladder are more likely to vote Conservative than individuals who remain in the same social class as their parents. Overall, an individual’s social origin and social destination seem to be equally important for how they vote. Yet we find no evidence that social mobility is associated with political voting preferences per se; rather upwardly mobile individuals’ greater propensity to vote for the Conservatives is driven by the joint impact of their social origin and destination.

Mindsets and politically motivated reasoning about fake news

False information may be published with the intention of misleading the public, and such fake news is often difficult to detect. Ideological fake news may pose a particular challenge, as people may be less able to detect false information that supports their prior beliefs. The difficulty of detecting fake news with an ideological slant may be compounded if people are motivated to defend their beliefs. Building on the mindset theory of action phases, we investigated motivational states as moderators of people’s ability to detect fake news. We tested two competing predictions to study the cognitive and motivational processes implicated in fake news detection. Both predictions concern an ideological belief bias, where people tend to accept information that agrees with their partisan identities and to reject information that disagrees with them. First, motivated reasoning accounts posit that deliberation should reinforce the ideological belief bias because reasoning primarily serves to defend and rationalize one’s own position. An opposing view, based on dual-process theory, assumes that deliberation attenuates the ideological belief bias by facilitating an unbiased assessment of new information. An online experiment (N = 497) tested these competing accounts. Participants were induced with deliberative/implemental/control mindsets prior to rating the veracity of (true/fake) news headlines. Some headlines favored a Republican view; others leaned toward a Democrat perspective. Based on self-reported political preference (Democrat vs. Republican), headlines were categorized as congruent or incongruent with participants’ political views. Consistent with an ideological belief bias, participants accepted more congruent than incongruent news, and they were more likely to fail to detect favorable fake news. In the main analysis, mindsets did not moderate the ideological belief bias, but showed interesting relationships with cognitive reflection and dishonest behavior. Further exploration using signal-detection theory suggested that the deliberative mindset might be associated with increased skepticism, thereby promoting fake news detection.

Nonlinear Internal Control System in Business

The purpose of the written study is to study the relationship between the qualifications of the CFO and the nonlinear system of the firm’s internal control system. We used three indicators of the competence of the CFO: financial education, accounting, seniority, and education. Using the model of Kazakhstan companies registered on the stock exchange in 2023. In the methodology of the internal control system, in which stimuli cause a reverse response, the internal control system should be recognized as a nonlinear approach that can have a high impact if it has little impact. The results of this study show a negative relationship between the financial, accounting experience of a CFO and work experience under a nonlinear system of internal control, which indicates that firms with high-quality CFO are facing a nonlinear internal control system in business. A business management team with a large number of employees is associated with an effective internal control system. In addition, the political preferences of senior management directly and indirectly affect the quality of financial statements through the internal control system. Several reliability tests confirm our main results. The results show that a capable CFO can effectively implement a suitable subsystem. The results of the study of a nonlinear system of internal control in business, in terms of improving individual elements of internal control in companies, can be used by members of audit firms.

The Impact of Digital Literacy on Millennials' Political Preferences Case on Wahdatul Ummah SD-IT Teacher Board Metro City, Lampung

This article discusses the impact of millennials’ digital literacy on political choices in both national and local elections. This theme is considered important considering that political preferences are strongly influenced by paradigms built from a process of reading social phenomena both through classical literature and contemporary digital literacy. The problem is that social media as the main reading material for millennials is often filled with news that is almost without filters and comparisons, making it difficult to differentiate between black and white information. This was a field research with qualitative study pattern and questionnaires and interviews being the main data sources with research objects from the Wahdatul Ummah Metro Lampung Gru SD-IT Board. The selection of research objects was determined based on considerations where SD-IT Wahdatul Ummah, a superior Islamic school (SD Pengmobil), has a millennial teacher board, is social media literate, and understands social and political issues in society. The main problem formulation that will be studied in this research is the impact of the digital literacy of the Wahdatul Ummah SD-IT Teachers’ Council on their political choice tendencies in election contestations. The results of the research found that the majority of the Wahdatul Ummah Metro City SD-IT Teacher Council is very active with social media, social media is used as a medium for educating students, and also for self-education, especially when dealing with socio-political issues in the election year. The research also found that the political preferences of the Wahdatul Ummah Metro City SD-IT Teachers’ Council were greatly influenced by their maturity in digital integration on social media so that they do not easily accept news without a clarification process, and act moderately and are not carried away by issues of polarization due to the impact of the existing political process.
 Keywords: digital literacy, impact, millennial, political preference

Stereotypes and Stereotyping: Measuring the Accuracy of Lifestyle-Based Judgments on Political Affiliation

Abstract People often draw inferences about others’ underlying characteristics from single and static samples of their appearance, such as facial features, or attractiveness. Evidence also suggests that these judgments occur spontaneously and rapidly. Are humans also able to detect political preferences based on appearance? This article examines to what extent observable lifestyle characteristics influence people’s judgments about one’s political affiliation and, more importantly, to what degree these judgments are accurate. A conjoint analysis allows for the identification of the specific lifestyle cues that people use to infer one’s political affiliation. These results are contrasted with a large and unique dataset (n = 64,745), enabling the assessment of how accurate these cues are. Results suggest that certain lifestyle characteristics, such as type of car or leisure activities, are clearly associated with different political parties, at least in people’s minds. Results also suggest that, despite the potential detrimental effects of appearance-based judgments, people are generally pretty good at guessing others’ political preferences. This study contributes to a growing body of research on the relationship between lifestyle and political preferences. More generally, it sheds light on the diagnostic value of appearances in everyday social judgments.

디지털 게리맨더링의 편향성 유도가 기본권에 미치는 영향과 입법적 대응방안 연구

Digital gerrymandering refers to the phenomenon of using information technology to artificially manipulate electoral district boundaries to favor a particular party or group. It involves the use of data analysis and information technology to redraw electoral boundaries in a way that results in advantageous outcomes for specific parties or groups. Through digital gerrymandering, it's possible to artificially design the distribution of voters to benefit certain parties or candidates. As a result, this undermines the fairness of elections and induces bias, allowing the votes of certain groups to have disproportionately greater influence compared to others. This process poses several critical threats to the principles and fundamental rights of democracy. First, it violates the principle that every voter's vote should be treated equally. Digital gerrymandering can artificially adjust the value of votes in certain areas, diminishing the influence of some voters while overestimating that of others. Second, it leads to the distortion of political representation. When electoral district boundaries are manipulated, the outcome can differ from the actual will of the voters, resulting in a political representation system that fails to accurately reflect the opinions of some voters. Third, it infringes upon freedom of expression and political diversity. Voters' rights to freely express their political preferences and choose from a variety of political options can be restricted. This study aims to analyze the impact of digital gerrymandering on fundamental rights, especially the right to vote and freedom of expression, and to propose legislative measures to counteract it. It examines how digital technologies can distort the electoral process and specifically how they can infringe upon voters' rights to freely express their will and vote. Additionally, the study explores necessary legislative responses to address these issues, aiming to protect the core values of democracy and ensure the fairness of elections. To achieve this, the study seeks to clarify the concept of digital gerrymandering, illustrate how it can infringe upon fundamental rights through specific examples, and identify concrete legislative measures to ensure transparency and fairness.

Societal Pessimism and the Transition to Parenthood: A Future Too Bleak to Have Children?

AbstractContemporary adults often cite economic uncertainty, global warming, and increasing inequality as reasons for intending not to have children. Despite extensive research on the impact of societal pessimism on attitudes towards out‐group members, political preferences, and voting behaviors, its impact on demographic behaviors, such as fertility, has received little attention. This study examines the relationship between societal pessimism—captured through individuals' negative perception of the future of the next generation—and their likelihood of becoming a parent. Using data from the Dutch Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (LISS), we use discrete‐time event history models to estimate the probability of becoming a parent in a given year based on respondents' self‐reported negative assessment of the future of the next generation in six distinct areas. Our results demonstrate that perceiving the future of the coming generation as worse than today is associated with a lower probability of becoming a parent. These findings suggest that surveys aimed at understanding fertility behaviors should incorporate questions about individuals' perceptions of the future, in addition to their own contemporaneous conditions.