Political Predispositions Research Articles

When the Right Riots: How Ideology, Protest Tolerance, Authoritarianism and News Consumption Affect Perceptions of the US Capitol Insurrection

ABSTRACT After the 2020 presidential election, sustained efforts to overturn outcomes culminated in the invasion of the United States Capitol. While scholars have long investigated the impact of news on support for left-leaning protests, it is critical to understand how political predispositions and news consumption relate to support for anti-democratic movements. Through a survey fielded one week after the invasion, we analyzed how ideology, attitudes about protesting in general, authoritarianism, and media habits relate to people’s support for the movement, perceptions of its disruptiveness, and opinions about police response. Results show that conservative media have a strong unidirectional relationship, increasing support for the movement, while left-leaning or mainstream media impact is moderated by partisanship, which is related to increased support for liberals and decreased support for conservatives. We found authoritarianism related to support for Stop the Steal and perceptions of the police as too severe to suppress it. Evidence suggests elite cues and consumption of conservative media can legitimize insurrectionist movements, even among those who strongly oppose the right to protest overall.

Party fragmentation, political predispositions, and delayed voting decisions

Party fragmentation, political predispositions, and delayed voting decisions

Who Relies on Social Media Influencers for Political Information? A Cross-Country Study Among Youth

Social media influencers (SMIs) are defined as regular individuals who become well-known via self-branding on social media. Youth use content posted by SMIs not just for entertainment, but also for political information. However, we know little about which groups of young people are most likely to be exposed to their political messages or why some youth seem to favor SMIs’ political information over news content from other sources. Inspired by the selective exposure paradigm, this cross-country study conducted between April 2022 and March 2023 explored which variables positively relate to selecting SMIs as primary political information sources among a quota-based sample of emerging adults (16–22 years old) in Germany ( N = 559) and Belgium ( N = 495). We focused on dispositional factors, namely young people’s political predispositions (e.g., subjective political knowledge, institutional mistrust) and source perceptions (e.g., perceived expertise, perceived opinion leader functions), that may be associated with selecting SMIs for political information. Overall, 59 percent of youth in our study were able to name a favorite political SMI. In this analytical sample, youth who were male, politically active, or ascribed opinion leader functions to SMIs were likely to consider them central political information sources. Moreover, country-specific multi-group analysis showed that, in Germany, low subjective political knowledge and parasocial relationships developed with SMIs were linked with relying on them for political information.

Media Exposure, Political Predispositions, and Conspiracy Theories: Explaining Chinese Beliefs in COVID Origins

Abstract This article examines the underpinning mechanisms of the Chinese public’s belief in two opposing conspiracy theories on the origins of coronavirus disease 2019. Utilizing survey data from 4,251 Chinese internet users, our study reveals both the universality and distinctiveness of mechanisms involved in conspiracy theory beliefs. The distinctiveness primarily emanates from the political system and its media environment, while universality is mainly attributed to the cognitive style of intuitive thinking. In China’s political system, exposure to either domestic or foreign media sources exerts substantial influence on public conspiracy beliefs. Notably, we emphasize the mediating role of political ideologies in domestic media exposure. Exposure to domestic media is more likely to lead conservative individuals to reject the conspiracy asserting COVID-19 originated in a lab in China. Concurrently, nationalism mediates foreign media exposure, reinforcing convictions of U.S.-centered conspiracies. This research shows how media narratives, molded by the political context, generate divergent perspectives on conspiracy theories in China. Furthermore, given the role of intuitive thinking in conspiracy beliefs, our findings highlight the potential for cultivating a more rational society through the promotion of analytical thinking, which requires the public to employ a deliberative and conscious cognitive process when exposed to highly politicized media content.

The partisan pandemic: Applying the reasoned action approach to understand the effects of politicizing a public health crisis

AbstractIt is well‐established that news outlets cater to audiences with particular political leanings and present news about important events, such as disease outbreaks, differently. However, the mechanisms through which selected media exposure influences behavior are not well established. Two surveys examined the roles of attitudes and social norms as pathways through which political predispositions (political ideology, partisanship) and news media choices influence health behavior decisions. Using early Covid‐19 as a case study, both studies (a student sample [n = 315]; an adult sample [n = 518]) found liberal news viewing was related to positive attitudes and norms about health prevention and subsequently more enacted preventive behaviors among liberals but not conservatives. Interestingly, watching conservative news outlets was not associated with attitudes and norms about health prevention, nor was it related to behavior. Partisanship, but not political ideology, directly predicted participants’ preventive behavior. These findings suggest that party identification serves as a heuristic for conservatives’ and Republicans’ attitudes and behavior, which are not influenced by news media choice. Partisan differences in media preferences influenced the adoption of preventive behavior via the reasoned action pathways for Democrats but not Republicans, suggesting distinct messaging strategies for health communication based on political leaning.

The emotional citizen: Positive affective response towards immigrants predicts meaningful experiences with them and lower COVID-19 perceived threat in nine countries

Mass migration and COVID-19 represent two converging challenges affecting immigrant-receiving countries. Our understanding of intergroup emotion profiles—positive (happiness, hope, and sympathy) and negative (anger, fear, and disgust)—among members of immigrant destination societies in times of global uncertainty remains limited. Drawing from panel samples from nine countries ( N = 13,645), and controlling for relevant covariates, we aimed to extract latent profiles of intergroup emotions and map these profiles onto perceived COVID-19-related threats, immigrant contact, political predispositions, dark triad traits, and prejudice. We identified six latent profiles with patterns suggesting that positive interactions with immigrants are significantly correlated with positive emotional response and lower perceived pandemic threat. Societies facing mass immigration in the wake of COVID-19 may benefit from interventions and policies that promote positive and close experiences with immigrants, thereby reducing negative emotions and fostering positive emotions toward newcomers among citizens.

How to convince in a televised debate: the application of machine learning to analyze why viewers changed their winner perception during the 2021 German chancellor discussion

What causes viewers to change their winner perception during a televised debate? The article addresses this question, drawing on a large-N field study of the 2021 chancellor debate in Germany, which contains survey and real-time response data for 4613 participants. Using machine learning techniques, we identify determinants of why participants change their opinion about who is winning the discussion during the debate. Our analysis based on random forest and decision tree models shows in detail, first, what factors drive debate winner perceptions in the course of televised debate reception. Second, we reveal what combinations of political predispositions and candidate statements are necessary to change the viewers’ debate winner perception. In doing so, third, we expand the toolbox of empirical debate research with our analysis based on machine learning algorithms. Our findings indicate that pre-debate chancellor preference and candidate images play a crucial role in determining post-debate perception change, while party identification is less important in predicting changes. We can also directly identify several speech moments in the debate that shifted viewer perception, a novel approach to evaluating political debate performance.

Supporting environmental protection in good and bad economic circumstances

ABSTRACT This article explores the scope conditions of the effect of individual political orientation on environmental beliefs, focusing on personal economic circumstances. Distinguishing between willingness and opportunity factors, it is argued that the positive effect of left-wing ideology on public support for environmental protection is more strongly pronounced when individuals’ personal economic circumstances are better as potentially more costly regulations can be paid for. We test the theory using three different data sets from three different contexts: the German Longitudinal Election Study, the Cooperative Election Study (US), and Eurobarometer data. The analyses provide strong and robust evidence in line with our expectations. This research adds to our understanding of the role of political ideology as well as economic conditions in environmental public-opinion formation, and we shed light on the interactive influence of self-interest and political predisposition.

Fear and Othering in the inclusive early childhood classroom: remnants from the past

ABSTRACT Inclusive policies in early childhood classrooms have in recent decades become mainstream [UNESCO. 1994. The UNESCO Salamanca statement and framework for action on special educational needs. Paris: UNESCO]. Inclusive practices however are far from ideal [Slee, R. 2013. “How do we make inclusive education happen when exclusion is a political predisposition?” International Journal of Inclusive Education 17 (8): 895–907; Grace, R, G. Llewellyn, N. Wedgwood, M. Fenech, and D. McConnell. 2008. “Far From Ideal: Everyday Experiences of Mothers and Early Childhood Professionals Negotiating an Inclusive Early Childhood Experience in the Australian Context.” Topics in Early Childhood Special Education 28 (1): 18–31] and although children with disabilities are often welcomed into early childhood classrooms, the dominant discourses that circulate continue to position them as different and as Other [Watson, K. 2017. Inside the ‘inclusive’ early childhood classroom: The power of the 'normal’. New York: Peter Lang]. To build on our understanding of contemporary inclusive practices, an awareness of the complexities of the knowledge that informs practice is central. Some appreciation of the contribution made by historical discourses to the contemporary construction of disability in the classroom is necessary [Barnes, C. 2014. “A brief history of discrimination and disabled people.” http://repositoriocdpd.net:8080/bitstream/handle/123456789/495/CL_BarnesC_BriefHistoryDiscrimination_1991.pdf?sequence = 1]. This ethnographic research, employing observation and conversations among children, brings into focus how remnants from the past affect everyday encounters in the classroom as deeply embedded fears and anxieties continue to circulate around disability. Seldom made visible, rarely talked about or openly challenged, bygone relics permeate the way educators and children position children with a disability as a comparison to the norm, hindering inclusivity. This paper aims to bring into focus how fear affects the way disability is positioned in our early childhood classrooms, fear that leads to exclusions, separation, and Othering. Recognition of the past and scrutiny of the fear that lingers provides some promise for inclusive practice.

STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL STATE OF RUSSIAN SOCIETY: POLITICO-PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

The article is devoted to the analysis of psychological state of Russian society (PSO) at different stages of its transformation. The article is based on three studies of recent years. Thus, during the first stage (study of November 2017) before Presidential elections of 2018 we have found the high level of societal consolidation around the President, improvement of perception of all the main political actors, weakening of the complex of “national inferiority“ that was formed from the mid-1980-s till the “Crimean spring”. At the same time, these positive characteristics got along with negative trends; political apathy and cynicism. At the second stage — the pandemic period (study of spring-autumn 2021) PSS had substantially declined. Covid-19 strongly weakened the Russian society. Change of the life conditions was reflected in images of authorities, power institutions and leaders, transformed political predispositions and values of Russians who experienced severe depression and were totally demobilized in the face of the threats that grew more and more both from inside and from outside. At the third stage (study of April-May 2022) special military operation in Donbas had totally ousted pandemia from the public mind and caused reformatting of mass consciousness never seen before. One could observe high consolidation of society around the president. It is not just a situational consolidation around a flag. Deep positive trends that started to be formed in 2014, have strengthened and now dominate. Crimean consensus turned into Donbas consensus. Simultaneously the value split took place.

Do media events still unite the host nation's citizens? The case of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.

The Olympic Games are a typical media event and are seen as a festive occasion that monopolizes people's attention through the mass media. The Games and their media coverage have a predetermined schedule that enhances the nation's sense of unity by placing a temporary truce on political conflicts. Governments, especially those of Olympic host countries, tend to take advantage of this effect to garner support for their own policies. However, the effects of such media events may be weakening owing to changes in the media environment and increasing political polarization. Examining the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, this case study analyzes a large amount of Twitter data to probe Japanese social media users' attitudes toward the Olympic Games and the relationship of these attitudinal changes with their attitudes toward the political leadership of the prime minister. The results showed that previously negative attitudes toward the Olympic Games improved as people enjoyed the event. However, this positive shift did not appear to be associated with their attitudes toward the prime minister. Users' political predispositions strongly determined their attitudes toward the Olympic Games, indicating that the Olympic Games as a media event had limited implications for support for the administration.

Exposure to Campaign and Partisan Voting: The Moderating Roles of Voters' Political Predispositions

How do partisan citizens respond to campaign information and make voting decisions? We theorise that the association between exposure to campaign information and partisan voting is moderated by citizens' political predispositions — strength of partisanship, political sophistication, and election interest. To test our expectations, we used Australian Election Studies data from 2013, 2016, and 2019. We found that partisans who are exposed to campaign information tend to follow their party preference when strength of partisanship is high. For political sophistication, we found that the influence of campaign information on partisan voting is not conditional on sophistication. For election interest, we found a moderating effect of election interest whereby partisan individuals who encountered campaign information were more inclined to choose their own party when interest was low and more inclined to support their opposing party when interest was high.

Awareness of COVID-19 at the Local Level: Perceptions and Political Consequences.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has affected all Americans, its effects have been unequally distributed across geographic areas. These variations in the pandemic's severity-and public perceptions thereof-likely have political consequences. This study examines the factors that shape perceptions of COVID-19 at the local level and assesses the consequences of these perceptions for public opinion and political behaviors. The authors use questions from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study linked with county-level COVID-19 rates to examine predictors of respondents' perceptions of the pandemic's severity in their county, including demographic, political, and informational characteristics. The study also examines whether these perceptions are associated with public opinion and voter behavior. Respondents' perceptions are correlated with case rates. Liberals and Democrats estimate the pandemic to be more severe than Republicans and conservatives do, as do CNN viewers compared to Fox News viewers. The study found only limited evidence of a relationship between perceptions of the pandemic in a respondent's county and political outcomes. The results add to the accumulating evidence that both news media and political predispositions shape perceptions of COVID-19, and they raise important questions about whether and how the pandemic has shaped-and will continue to shape-political outcomes.

Intergroup contact reduces affective polarization but not among strong party identifiers

AbstractPrevious studies have assumed that the relationship between intergroup contact and affective polarization is uniform across political predispositions. We argue instead that party identification serves as a boundary condition for the intergroup contact‒affective polarization relationship. Our findings suggest that: (1) intergroup contact between “in‐party” and “out‐party” supporters reduces affective polarization among nonidentifiers, weak, and moderate party identifiers, and (2) intergroup contact remains unrelated to affective polarization among strong party identifiers. These findings apply to high‐ and low‐quality contact measures alike, meaning that party identification strength is an essential boundary condition capable of obstructing the impact of contact on affective polarization. Analyses were performed on a new sample among Danish citizens. The survey was fielded in 2021 (n = 3638). The findings contribute to both intergroup contact research and to the study of the sources of affective polarization. In terms of broader implications, our study suggests that aside from true partisans, intergroup contact stimulates democratic behavior.

Political Predispositions of Constitutional Judges and their Impact on Causation of Judgments in Iraq

تبحث هذه الورقة فرضية قيام القاضي الدستوري في العراق باستحضار القيم والتوجهات التي يؤمن بها عند مراجعة دستورية لقانون ما. وهل بإمكانه أن يستعمل هذه القيم، وخاصة السياسية، في حيثيات القرار. إن فرضية البحث مبينة على اعتبارين؛ الأول أن الدستور العراقي النافذ فتح المجال واسعًا أمام القاضي الدستوري، عندما عدد المصادر التي على القاضي الرجوع إليها عند فحص الدستورية، وهي ثوابت أحكام الإسلام، والديمقراطية، والحقوق والحريات الأساسية الواردة في الدستور. أما الاعتبار الآخر؛ فإن القاضي الدستوري على تماس مباشر مع الحياة السياسية، من حيث إن عملية اختياره تتم من جهة سياسية غالبًا. وأيضًا، فإن جوهر القضايا التي ينظر فيها هو سياسي. لذا فمن الصعوبة تجريد القاضي الدستوري من ميوله وتوجهاته؛ وإلا أصبح مجرد آلة. لذا يخلص البحث إلى ضرورة إعطاء مساحة عمل للقاضي الدستوري تختلف تمامًا عن المساحة التي يعمل بها القاضي العادي، الذي يكون غالبًا مقيدًا بالنص القانوني؛ فيما على القاضي الدستوري أن يتوسع؛ بالشكل الذي يوازن بين المنهج القانوني والميول السياسية.

Political Accountability and Selective Perception in the Time of COVID

Abstract That voters punish the incumbent president in bad times, and reward them in good times, has become a stylized fact of elections. Despite COVID-19 representing an unprecedented catastrophe, Trump’s approval ratings, unlike other world leaders, remained stable throughout 2020. To explore this puzzle, we surveyed the same Americans twice before the 2020 election—a period when COVID cases spiked. Instead of finding that the crisis’s severity affected Trump’s approval, we find the reverse—perception of the crisis depended on one’s prior political predispositions. People who already supported Trump were more likely to underestimate COVID fatalities and case rates, and less likely to perceive the crisis as worsening over time (daily infections doubled between interviews). Those who perceived the crisis to worsen, but continued to support Trump, expressed unwillingness to blame the president. A public so polarized that it fails to acknowledge disaster, or attribute blame, cannot hold its government accountable.

Health and Election Outcomes: Evidence from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

Recent research indicates that political developments and events can have important implications for health. In this study, we use data from a large, nationally representative survey ( N = 1750) fielded in December 2020 to understand how the 2020 Presidential Election impacted self-reported health ratings. Several important findings emerge. First, many Americans report that their mental (14%) and general (6%) health has worsened compared to before the 2020 presidential election; similar number of Americans report improvements to their mental (15%) and general (8%) health. Second, those who voted for Trump and who disagree that Biden won the election are significantly less likely than their counterparts to report better mental, but not general, health compared to before the 2020 election. These relationships persist even in the context of a wide range of controls, including demographics, political predispositions, and perceptions of polarization.

Afraid of whom?: Threat sensitivity's influence changes with perceived source of threat.

Taking insights from the fields of psychology and biology, a growing body of scholarship considers the psychophysiological foundations of political attitudes. Subconscious emotional reactions to threat, for example, have been shown to predict socially conservative attitudes toward out-groups. However, many of these studies fail to consider different sources of perceived threat. Using a combination of survey and physiological data, I distinguish between fear of others and fear of authority, finding that threat sensitivity predicts divergent political attitudes depending on the strength of each. Those who are more sensitive to threat from others tend to hold socially conservative attitudes, while those who fear authority generally take more libertarian positions. As sensitivity to threat is at least partially inherited, these findings highlight the genetic role of political predispositions.

Newspapers as tools to promote national agenda: How Chinese Communist Party newspapers frame images of the South China Sea disputes for national and international audiences

Using both quantitative and qualitative content analysis, this study investigates how two Chinese Communist Party newspapers frame the same story to international and national audiences. The empirical findings illustrate how propaganda techniques originally developed and applied in Western and democratic countries have been adopted and refined by newspapers in a state-run Communist press environment to create frames that best align with the cultural and political predispositions of domestic and international readers. The findings suggest Chinese authorities understand Western communication theory and appreciate how that theory can be applied to disseminate messages to both foreign and domestic audiences.

Fifty shades of deservingness: an analysis of state-level variation and effect of social constructions on policy outcomes

AbstractA patchwork of policies exists across the United States. While citizens’ policy preferences in domains such as the criminal legal system, gun regulations/rights, immigration, and welfare are informed by their political predispositions, they are also shaped by the extent to which policy targets are viewed as deserving. This article centres the idea that collective evaluations matter in policymaking, and it ascertains whether subnational levels of deservingness evaluations of several target groups differ across space to illuminate the link between these judgements and state policy design. We leverage original survey data and multilevel regression and poststratification to create state-level estimates of deservingness evaluations. The analyses elucidate the heterogeneity in state-level deservingness evaluations of several politically relevant groups, and they pinpoint a link between these social reputations and policy design. The article also delivers a useful methodological tool and measures for scholars of state policy design to employ in future research.