Public Opinion Polls Research Articles

Is Negative Campaigning a Response to a Dynamic Polling Environment? Evidence from Facebook and Twitter Posts by German Party Leaders in the 2021 German Federal Election

ABSTRACT Do negative campaigning strategies evolve in sync with a party leader’s position in public opinion polls? In Germany’s multi-party system, previous research during the traditional media era found that a chancellor candidate’s drop in the polls did not impact negativity. This study focuses on the dynamic campaign in the 2021 Federal Election, which is the most competitive campaign to date in the social media era as there was no incumbent chancellor candidate. The prevalence of negative campaigning by six major party leaders who made a total of n = 3580 posts on Facebook and Twitter from 1 March to Election Day on 25 September 2021 is studied here. Negative posts accounted for 7.7 per cent of total posts. Results also show that a chancellor candidate’s position in the polls matters: Front-runners are less likely to rely on negative campaigning, but as candidates drop down in the polls from being the main challenger to rank third or lower, their negative campaigning increases. During the official six-week campaign or the hot phase, the number of negative posts increases overall as Election Day approaches. Variation in the use of negative campaigning among the individual chancellor candidates is discussed as is evidence of negative campaigning prior to the hot phase.

NATO after the invasion of Ukraine: how the shock changed alliance cohesion

AbstractFollowing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, experts predicted a NATO revival. The record on alliance cohesion, however, is mixed. Allies achieved consensus on some issues but not others. While some Alliance politics scholars and NATO experts assert that cohesion improved, new scholarship is needed to explain the nature of and changes in cohesion across NATO’s many issue areas. Leveraging organizational change scholarship, I argue that the extent to which an exogenous shock—here, the invasion of Ukraine—aligns with NATO’s mission can explain differences in cohesion on issue areas across three realms. To test the argument, I employ discourse analysis of high-level NATO documents, leader statements, relevant quotes from allied and NATO officials and public opinion polls (2010–2024). Findings reveal the importance of an alliance’s mission for the reconfiguration of cohesion after shock, and the study offers an alternative means for explaining the ebbs and flow of alliance cohesion.

Foreign experience of evaluating the effectiveness of police activity and the possibility of its implementation in Ukraine

The article is devoted to the study of foreign experience in assessing the effectiveness of police activities and the analysis of the possibility of its application in Ukraine. In particular, the author examines the foreign experience of evaluating the effectiveness of police activities in such countries as Austria, Great Britain, Estonia, Canada, Latvia, Lithuania, the USA, France, and the possibility of its implementation in Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to evaluation methods that combine quantitative and qualitative indicators of police performance. The authors point out the importance of internal and external control, with a significant role for public control, which is ensured through surveys, reporting and other forms of interaction with the public. The experience of foreign countries also includes the use of statistical reports on crime, such as in the United States and Austria, which allow not only to assess the work of the police but also to increase the level of trust in law enforcement agencies. It is concluded that the introduction of a point-based performance evaluation system should be applied to the personal assessment of each police officer. Based on the study, we conclude that in all foreign countries analyzed by us, today much attention is paid to the assessment of the effectiveness of police activities, which is due to the social purpose of its activities, but, given the existing legal system, organizational and legal framework for the activities of police units, and the adopted system of their management, the criteria for such assessment differ. In addition, we have found that certain forms of police performance evaluation, such as public opinion polls and annual reports on police performance, are common to both national and most foreign police systems. As a result of summarizing foreign experience in assessing the effectiveness of police activities, the author suggests using the following positive issues, namely: introduction of the above-mentioned US experience in Ukraine, since such ‘Crime Maps’ are available; use of the positive experience of the HM Inspectorate for Constabulary (UK) in the activities of the newly established Department of the Main Inspectorate and Human Rights of the National Police of Ukraine, in particular, in assessing the quality of police services.

Potential of elites in consolidation of public opinion in eastern and western approaches

The authors proceed from the classical understanding of the elite as a social group endowed with power and capable of influencing public opinion. The paper represents the examination of the role of elites – political, economic and social – in the formation of public ideas, values and political attitudes. The problem is conditioned, on the one hand, by the intensification of geopolitical confrontation and the formation of polar ideological concepts on both sides of the ocean, on the other hand – by the dynamic change in characteristics of media environment, which lead to increased centrifugal processes and polarization of public opinion on current events, values and ideology. The authors take into account the widely accepted hypothesis of relative homogeneity of elites (Huntington, Sklair) in the sense that cultural differences and stereotypes influence decision-making in this environment the least. This assumption became the starting point in choosing the topic, predetermined the search for possible points of contact in building a public dialogue, and, in general, served as the basis for a conceptual assessment of the ability of elites to resolve insurmountable contradictions between different segments of the political media space. The authors identified similarities and differences in the understanding of the social and political role of elites in the East and West and proposed possible routes for the development of dialogue. The study is based on the works of the classics of the theory of elites, as well as on modern research in the field of social communication and media.

The Spiritual Well-Being Scale in the Polish Catholic Setting: Construct, Structure, and Relationships with Psychological Well-Being.

The population of Poland could be of particular interest to researchers studying religion and spirituality. Catholicism has played a significant role in shaping the country's culture, history, and tradition and is considered a national religion. More recently, however, the processes of moving away from regular participation in religious services and loosening ties with the institution of the Catholic Church are marked (Polish Public Opinion Research Center, CBOS). The Polish Catholic setting may modify the associations between psychological variables that have been studied in their relationships with spirituality, which have been investigated in religious contexts differing from a PolishCatholic one. Given this context, we examined the internal structure of spiritual well-being in the sample of present-dayPolishCatholics (Study 1) and how spiritual well-being is related to mental health (Study 2). The internal structure of the Spiritual Well-Being Scale was replicated in the Polish sample, but only positively worded items loaded on the Religious and Existential Well-Being subscales. Spiritual well-being was positively related to positive mood, satisfaction with life, and psychological well-being; it wasnegatively associated with negative mood, depression, and anxiety, thus remaining significantly related to psychological well-being among Polish Catholics.

Elucidations of Present Situation of Preparedness for Natural Disasters at Home in Japan and its Effective Factors

This study elaborates on the measures to improve preparedness for natural disasters by elucidating the present situation of preparedness for natural disasters at home in Japan as well as the effective factors to promote such preparedness. An Internet monitoring survey was conducted throughout Japan, and valid responses (n=1,599) were obtained. To measure preparedness for natural disasters at home, we used 31 items, including the ones in the “public opinion poll on disaster management” conducted by the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan. The Internet monitoring survey revealed that approximately 30% of the respondents arranged for articles they may require in the event of a disaster and had contemplated their evacuation actions immediately after a disaster. The Internet monitoring survey results were compared with the results of the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan’s public opinion poll. It revealed that the internet monitoring survey results better represent the tendency of the Japanese people as a whole. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to determine six independent variables—age, marital status, prior disaster experience, awareness of hazard maps, disaster imminence, and communal exchanges—statistically significant as effective factors to improve preparedness for natural disasters at home. Particularly, considering a large standardizing coefficient (β) for awareness of hazard maps, it is proposed that the most effective measure to improve preparedness for natural disasters at home to comprehend the risks posed to one’s community and own house is by using the opportunities of disaster prevention education and drill rather than simply viewing the hazard maps aimlessly.

The Long Decline of South Africa's ANC

ABSTRACT: Three decades after the African National Congress (ANC) won 62.7 percent of the vote that propelled Nelson Mandela into the presidency in 1994, the ANC's vote share plummeted to 40.2 percent of the national vote in South Africa's 2024 general election (down from 57.5 percent five years previously,= and well below the 50 percent predicted by preelection polls). Against thirty years of pessimistic academic literature predicting the opposite, the ANC accepted electoral defeat. But this left the ANC in a strategic quandary. Had it reached the upper 40 percent range, easy coalitions with small parties would have passed the 50 percent threshold. But with only 40 percent, the party reached back into the early years of democracy and formed a government of national unity—a multiparty coalition that left the ANC's most significant political opponents out in the cold. ANC (and national) president Cyril Ramaphosa has sidelined Africanist parties and created a coalition with decidedly centrist parties. The "broad church" which has bedeviled the ANC is at an end. Multiparty coalition government has arrived in South Africa, but questions remain: Can ANC electoral decline be arrested by this sharp move towards the center? And what, if any, substantive role is there for the ANC in the future if not?

Attitudes toward abortion legality and abortion regulation: Insights from a nationally representative study

AbstractObjectiveNational public opinion polls and surveys use different questions from one another to assess people's abortion attitudes. We included commonly asked abortion attitude items on a single survey to examine people's attitudes toward abortion legality and abortion restriction to create profiles of people which we then compared across state groups. Concurrently assessing attitudes toward both abortion legality and restrictions is important given the changing abortion legislative climate in the United States.MethodWe administered an online survey to U.S. adults (n = 919) via Ipsos probability panel and used latent class analysis to identify classes of participants. Then, we used multinominal logistic regression to make state‐level comparisons.ResultsWe identified three classes: (1) 35.0 percent—abortion should be illegal/more restricted, (2) 35.1 percent—abortion should be legal/laws should reflect the status quo, and (3) 29.9 percent—abortion should be legal/more available. Trigger‐law states comprise the largest proportion of people who think abortion should be illegal/more restricted, whereas states without trigger laws comprise similar proportions of people from all three classes.ConclusionConcurrently measuring whether people believe abortion should be legal and the extent it should be restricted can provide a more comprehensive understanding of people's attitudes and demonstrates important state‐level nuances in attitudes.

De las políticas de mano dura a la política del estado de excepción en El Salvador

This article analyzes the process of deterioration of democracy in El Salvador, in the context of the exceptional regime imposed by the government of Nayib Bukele. Paradoxically, this is one of the governments in the post-conflict period with the highest level of citizen approval, according to public opinion polls (IUDOP, 2023). The study is based on historiographic research that analyzes the main impacts of the failure of the security policies of the ARENA and FMLN governments on democratic institutionality, combined with the statistical analysis of a national survey on the level of approval or rejection of the Bukele government and its security strategy, materialized in the emergency regime. It shows that the confluence of the unsatisfied security demands of the citizenry in the face of the problem of violence and the failure of the political opportunism of the ARENA and FMLN governments in security matters have contributed to the imposition of the exception regime by the government of Nayib Bukele, whose reduction in the homicide rate and victimization have generated a majority favorable opinion among the citizenry. This despite the risks posed by the authoritarian drift of the current regime and the restriction of certain democratic attributes in the relationship between the State and society. In summary, this research invites us to think about the complex connection between authoritarian populism, political culture and democracy. ECA Estudios Centroamericanos, Vol. 79, No. 774, 2024: 13-46.

US Bipartisan Consensus on China: The Making and the Implementation

According to the most experts, there is a bipartisan consensus in the United States regarding China: both parties recognize that China poses an existential threat to the United States, its economy, socio-political structure and the role as a global leader. This core conceptual consent represents a clear contrast with the endless battles between Democrats and Republicans in the domestic political arena, blocking any legislative initiatives and the development of a unified sociopolitical agenda for the country. This rare unity has made many observers to claim the emergence of a new external enemy, in the face of which America will be able to overcome its identical crisis and to come back to national unity. The political elite also actively uses the image of the enemy, calling on the Nation for unity. This article is aimed to understand what lies behind political slogans and the bipartisan concept of confronting China. The study is based on the analysis of several sources that make it possible to judge the attitude towards China in the United States along party lines, specific to each level of the party-political system party platforms at the federal level, legislative initiatives at the state and city levels, public opinion polls at the level of the society. The research hypothesis is that Democrats and Republicans, who agree on the conceptual vision of the Chinese threat, offer different ways to counter it. The difference in methods of struggle stems from different ideological and value models that manifest themselves in the implementation of both the socioeconomic agenda within the country and foreign policy strategies in the international arena. The unity of the parties ends exactly by the developing of a conceptual framework for confrontation with the opponent. The implementation of specific steps of the anti-Chinese agenda at the state and city levels is taking place in accordance with the ideological and political guidelines of each party, and the public attitude towards the Chinese threat demonstrates a clear split along party lines. The conceptual positioning of a new external enemy instead of unification brought to the United States anti-Chinese hysteria among conservative politicians at the state level, which was realized in the adoption of discriminatory laws in Republican states against Chinese citizens and a new wave of anti-Chinese sentiment in society, manifested in outbreaks of violence against Asian minorities.

Lacking knowledge or lacking support? An informed choice study of support for mileage fees as an alternative to gas taxes

Governing bodies are continuing to research, conduct pilot programs, and adopt policy for mileage fees as alternatives to the gas tax, yet public support remains critically low. Lack of support generally stems from assumptions that mileage fees will cost more, be inequitable for rural and low-income households, and will impede privacy through invasive mileage collection. In this study, we assess the extent to which these perceptions of mileage fees, which ultimately shape policy opinion formation, are related to low levels of information or lacking information. We also evaluate the unique aspects of policy opinion formation, including engagement with both individual and aggregate ideologies and material self-interests. Our survey instrument encourages issue engagement through iterative voting and educational experiences, through which we see information has a statistically significant effect on policy opinions and changes what we think we know about public support for mileage fees. Across the educational experiences, which include policy-relevant information provided through videos and tailored annual cost calculations for the policy alternatives, 24% of respondents changed their opinion by the end of the study, and 44% changed their opinion at least once during the study. We conclude with suggestions for public opinion polling around controversial policies that apply to both researchers and practitioners looking to engage with their constituents.

Japan: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractJapan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) continued to slide in public opinion polls in 2023, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's approval ratings never recovering from the scandal over the party's association with the controversial Unification Church that was exposed in the previous year. Kishida survived an assassination attempt in April, and the LDP's subsequent strong performance in by‐elections helped to temporarily stabilise his leadership. However, the party faced a fresh scandal in November, when a police investigation into the misreporting and mishandling of ‘slush fund’ money by the LDP's major factions led to the removal of four senior Cabinet ministers and an even sharper decline in support for the Kishida administration. Rising consumer prices, due in part to a weakening of the Yen, were also a major concern throughout 2023, with inflation for the full year reaching 3.1 per cent, its highest level since 1981.

Криминальные угрозы и криминогенные риски преступлений, совершаемых в отношении несовершеннолетних с использованием цифровых технологий

Introduction: the author considers the protection of minors against the negative effects of digital influence, including the criminal threat and criminogenic risks that can be detected in a digitally transformed environment. The search for legal solutions to decrease criminal threat and criminogenic risks is also addressed. Materials and Methods: the study materials included the law providing criminological security of minors, a public opinion poll, and statistical data on police-recorded juvenile crimes committed online. The study employed a variety of methods, including empirical and linguistic methods, scientific and analytical methods, as well as specific juridical methods, such as sociological, juridical, comparative legal, etc. Results of the study indicated that criminal threats and criminogenic risks associated with unsupervised use of the Internet, social networks, and messengers by minors have been on the rise, as evidenced by the upward trend in online crimes committed against minors observed in 2023, similar to the previous years. Currently, the most significant risk is sexual abuse against minors online, as it has the most detrimental impact on the physical, sexual, psychological, and moral development of adolescents. The reduction of this type of crime will necessitate the allocation of special attention and the collaboration of law enforcement with network operators and providers in order to construct a robust and effective system for regulating the consumption of information products by minors. It is of the utmost importance to ensure that the system does not impede the development of the younger generation. Discussion and Conclusions: given the current level of criminal threats and criminogenic risks for minors, including attacks on their biosocial nature online, low detection rates and high levels of latency of this type of crime, it is imperative to improve the educational process for specialists working with minors, as well as for parents. This should include teaching minors themselves to use the Internet, social networks, and messengers. The author devotes particular attention to the inter-agency, intra-agency, and international interaction between law enforcement agencies.

Dropping ‘truth bombs’? The framing of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Indian broadcast news

AbstractIn a late October 2022 international YouGov public opinion poll, findings indicated that more Indians attributed responsibility for the Russian invasion of Ukraine to ‘the West’ rather than Russia (28% compared to 27%, while 45% indicated both were accountable or expressed uncertainty). This study seeks to elucidate why such perceptions prevail, drawing upon the longstanding strategic partnership between the former Soviet Union and, subsequently, Russia, with India dating back to the 1950s and the portrayal of the Russian invasion within Indian broadcast news media. We argue that the media coverage of the conflict exhibits three main frames: the invasion as an attack by Russia on Ukrainian sovereignty, an anti-West pro-Russia frame, and a perspective aligning with Indian national interests. Both international and domestic proponents of these frames actively seek to shape the narrative presented, with media organizations deciding which frames to prioritize and which political actors to endorse. Consequently, we argue that the news media plays a pivotal role in shaping public perceptions of the conflict, influencing the Indian government's approach toward the war.

CRIMINOGENIC DETERMINANTS OF MARITAL VIOLENCE IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (according to sociological opinion polls)

CRIMINOGENIC DETERMINANTS OF MARITAL VIOLENCE IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (according to sociological opinion polls)

HOW TO DEAL WITH INSUFFICIENT SAMPLE SIZE DUE TO NON-RESPONSE IN SURVEYS?

Surveys have become indispensable approach for gathering input from diverse people in several fields, including social research, marketing, healthcare, and public opinion polls. However, non-response in surveys is a complex issue that is impacted by a variety of factors. The aim of this study is to enhance approaches to dealing with insufficient sample size resulting from non-response in surveys. This study revealed that there are several approaches in dealing with insufficient sample size due to non-response in surveys, namely: (a) resizing the population by dividing into specific category; (b) ethical and practical constraints as justification; (c) using different sampling techniques in determining sample size; and (d) repositioning the sample of a pilot study and real study. Conclusively, the proposed approaches in this study for addressing non-response and insufficient sample sizes in surveys are anticipated to significantly influence novel methodologies in sampling techniques across a variety of populations. Additional investigation is required to assess the efficacy of several approaches in augmenting the rate of response, including reminders, follow-ups, monetary or non-monetary incentives, and utilisation of online platforms for responding.

Misleading Polls in the Media: Does Survey Clickbait Have Social Consequences?

Abstract In today’s competitive information environment, clicks are the currency of the digital media landscape. Clickbait journalism attempts to entice attention with provocative and sensational headlines, but what are the implications when public opinion polls are the hook? Does the use of survey clickbait—news stories that make misleading claims about public opinion—have implications for perceptions of the public, journalists, or the polling industry? In two survey experiments conducted in the United States, we find that exposure to apolitical survey clickbait that makes exaggerated claims about the incompetence of the American public undermines perceptions of their capacity for democratic citizenship. At the same time, we find no evidence that this type of survey clickbait damages the reputations of the media or polling industry, suggesting that the media may have perverse incentives to use low-quality polls or to misrepresent polling results to drive traffic.

The Father’s Love: Collective Narcissism and Defensive Reactions to Allegations about Pope John Paul II in Polish Public Opinion

Abstract Recent allegations that Pope John Paul II turned a blind eye to clergy sexual abuse as archbishop and pope have ignited much controversy in Poland. In this study, we utilize data from an original representative survey of Polish adults to examine predictors of defensive political reactions to these allegations. We hypothesized that national and Catholic collective narcissism (an exaggerated belief in in-group greatness that requires consistent external validation) would predict defensive attitudes in the face of the allegation, and that nonnarcissistic in-group satisfaction with national and Polish identities would be less related to defensive attitudes. Using a variety of statistical approaches, we find support for these predictions among Polish Catholics.

APA poll: Americans' thoughts shift about social media harms

Americans in 2024 are somewhat split on the mental health benefits of social media according to the American Psychiatric Association's (APA's) new Healthy Minds Monthly poll, which was fielded by Morning Consult on behalf of the APA. The public annual opinion poll was released on April 2.

Winning Women’s Votes: Dotty Lynch and the Role of Gender in American Political Polling

As the chief pollster for Gary Hart’s 1984 race for the Oval Office, Dorothea “Dotty” Lynch became the first female pollster to head the polling unit for a presidential campaign. Lynch’s work reconstructed how the field of political consulting regarded the role of women in elections by making women’s issues a central focus of a US presidential candidate’s campaign strategy, and by actively recruiting more women to work on presidential campaigns. Her work is also significant for the contribution she made to help explain why the gender gap played a critical role in American politics and elections.