Incumbent Research Articles

Legitimacy through representation? Media sources and discourses of offshore wind development

IntroductionThe choice of which individuals and entities to include as sources in newspaper articles is an important decision for journalists, in large part because they can shape how readers understand the issue and which arguments become most salient. This is particularly important for issues that are relatively new or unknown to readers. The growing topic of offshore wind in the United States is a prime example of an issue that many people are encountering for the first time via media reporting. This issue has also proven to be highly divisive, with heated oppositional arguments being promoted by different entities. This study seeks to understand which entities are being represented in media coverage of offshore wind, and the different framing strategies that various entities use in quotes about the first two large-scale projects in the United States, South Fork Wind and Vineyard Wind I.MethodsWe use a newspaper content analysis to identify and code the sources quoted in articles reporting on South Fork Wind and Vineyard Wind I from 2013-2022, as well as the emphasis frames used by each entity.ResultsWe find that coverage varies in the two cases, but developers and political officials are quoted most frequently. As these entities tend to use frames highlighting the benefits of offshore wind more frequently than the risks, those perspectives dominate news coverage. Meanwhile, perspectives of community members and impacted industries such as the fishing industry are represented less frequently in news coverage.DiscussionThese findings help explain the dominance of certain frames and perspectives in offshore wind, and they raise important questions about which voices are legitimized through representation in news media.

Political incentives and analyst bias: Evidence from China

AbstractThis study extends extant research on the determinants of financial analyst bias by examining the role that political incentives play. Using a series of scheduled provincial political events in China, we document that analysts are significantly more likely to issue favorable recommendations or revise their recommendations upward during political event periods, and the effect of political events on optimism is larger for analysts employed by brokerage firms affiliated with politicians. Cross‐sectional evidence suggests that the impact of political events on analyst optimism is concentrated in those provinces where capital market development is a more important performance indicator for politicians or where the incumbent politicians face a pending promotion. Stock return analyses reveal that favorable recommendations issued during political event periods are significantly less profitable in the long run and are less credible according to investor perceptions. Reinforcing our main evidence, we also find that financial analysts are more likely to issue optimistic earnings forecasts during political event periods. Collectively, our results imply that political incentives distort analyst opinions and political‐economic factors affect the corporate information environment in China.

Incumbent inertia, innovativeness, and performance (dis)advantages: A demand-side learning perspective

Strategies of incumbent firms have received considerable attention in marketing and across business disciplines, but findings regarding performance (dis)advantages and innovativeness are mixed. Prior studies on supply-side sources (factors internal to the firm) of incumbent inertia disadvantages are more prevalent than those on demand-side factors, which relate to a firm’s customers and may explain potential incumbent advantages. We introduce an integrated demand-side framework to incumbent inertia, recognizing how the supply- and demand-side factors interrelate through learning mechanisms. On the one hand, incumbent firms learn and develop various routines and assets that influence their product strategies, typically reflecting inertia and incremental innovation. At the same time, customers learn about products in the market, forming preferences that reflect switching costs and network externalities (demand-side factors). Although an incumbent can gain advantages from demand-side effects, this could accelerate the onset of supply-side disadvantages. We present a set of research propositions that specify critical effects, and examine implications for incumbent strategies.

Socioeconomic, Ethnographic and Political Integrations and Challenges of Igbo Migrants in Lafia, Nasarawa State, Nigeria

The study examines the socioeconomic, ethnographic and political integrations and challenges of Igbo migrants in Lafia. Quantitative and qualitative techniques were adopted to collect data on integration variables via the administration of questionnaires to groups of Igbos from the five states of the Southeast region, and the conduct of In-depth Interviews (IDIs) with Igbo elders. Fifty copies of questionnaires were distributed to each group, totaling 250. Data were analysed by SPSS version 25, and tables and charts were generated and the qualitative data were content analysed. On socioeconomic integration, the results showed that the majority (88.1%) of Igbos were first generation migrants, who arrived to start business in Lafia over 40 years ago, whereby, almost three-fifths (59.5%) of them started their current occupation. Majority (37.6%) of Igbo migrants’ present occupation was facilitated by ‘master’, ‘family’ (66.8%) facilitated their accommodation, close to 70 per cent of them possessed their personal houses, and over two-fifths (43.1%) of them got landed property through ‘friend’ while close to three-quarters (74.8%) got married to Lafia indigenes. On ethnographic integration, three-quarters were proficient in Hausa language, with half rated their proficiency in Hausa language ‘excellent,’ while Gwandara language became the best secondary proficient language. As par political integration, over half (52.0%) of Igbo migrants held political office within their association politics but few with the wider politics. In summary, Igbo migrants have been experiencing dynamic and positive integrations but facing challenges of ethnic divide and nepotism.

Is presidential re-election really allowed in El Salvador?

This paper thoroughly explores the permissibility of presidential re-election in El Salvador by analyzing constitutional provisions and pivotal rulings of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice (CCSCJ), specifically CCSCJ’s rulings 163-2013 (25 July 2014) and 1-2021 (3 September 2021). Beginning with a brief historical context, the study provides essential insights into the evolution of the presidential system in El Salvador, establishing a foundation for comprehending historical and legal trends. The analysis meticulously dissects relevant constitutional clauses shaping the presidential system, paving the way for a nuanced examination. Focused on the interpretative milestones set by CCSCJ rulings, particularly those critical decisions, the paper navigates the intricate legal landscape surrounding presidential re-election in El Salvador. In its conclusion, the article addresses the question: Is presidential re-election really allowed in El Salvador? Beyond a simple answer, the study offers insightful reflections on the broader political-legal implications, contributing to a deeper understanding of El Salvador’s evolving governance dynamics.

She Said Yes! An Exploration of Confidence Among Women Who Run for Political Office

This is a qualitative exploratory research study of confidence and the emergence of women as candidates for state and local elected office. Our study consists of over 30 hours of interviews with 20 women candidates running for state and local office where we explore the sources of confidence that motivate women to run for office. Our interviews with women candidates suggest confidence is tied to egalitarian families and robust network support, strong educational credentials and background, as well as a multitude of professional and community leadership experiences.

Do Minorities Feel Welcome in Politics? A Cross-Cultural Study of the United States and Sweden

Abstract Racial and ethnic minorities are underrepresented in most Western democracies. This article investigates one potential root cause behind this pattern: minority and majority citizens might expect to feel discriminated against if they enter politics. Using data from three large-scale surveys, we find that minorities in both the United States and Sweden are less likely to expect to feel welcome than the majority population. These discrepancies in expected discrimination persist, even after controlling for other factors. Moreover, expected discrimination is not without political consequences: those who expect to feel less welcome are less likely to indicate an interest in running for political office. Finally, these results do not differ for politically engaged citizens who constitute a more realistic pool of potential candidates. We conclude by discussing what expectations of discrimination can tell us about the fairness of the political system and how these attitudes shape political ambition among minorities.

Natural resource rents and public spending on education in Africa: Does women's political empowerment matter?

The increase in the number of women in political office is one of the most significant social trends of recent decades. Although still underrepresented, women's participation in decision-making bodies is increasing. This paper analyzes the moderating effect of women's political empowerment on the relationship between natural resource rents and public spending on education in a sample of 47 African countries over the period 2003–2020. This study employs several recent methods to effectively address the endogeneity issue, including the Generalized Method of Moments in System (GMM-S) and the Two-stage Instrumental Variables (2SIV) approach. Overall, the results show that natural resource rents reduce public spending on education, but their interaction with the index of women's political empowerment in composite and disaggregated form increases public spending on education in Africa. These results are tested at four levels of robustness, including the inclusion of additional control variables, the exclusion of outliers, and the use of alternative dependent and independent variables. We suggest improving the representation of women in African political decision-making. This could include quotas for women in decision-making bodies, mentoring programs for women leaders, and financial incentives for political parties that promote women's participation. Steps must also be taken to address structural barriers that prevent women from fully participating in political life, such as discrimination and violence against women.

Bureaucracy Amid Political Power Struggle: A Critical Paradigmatic Review

The study of bureaucracy politicization in Indonesia has been mainly putting bureaucracy on its passive-position scenes. It viewed civil servants as politically subordinated by political officials. Bureaucracy in this classic paradigm had no other role but to execute what political officials decided. The barrier was clear, politicians made policy; civil servants administered the policy. Politicians made decision; bureaucrats merely implemented them. In this kind of relationship, bureaucracy had no other option but to obey the political leader’s decisions submissively. This article came up with different perspectives. It criticized the classic paradigm and challenged the notion of civil servant’s subordination before politics. Applying literature review, this study found out that bureaucracy had not merely administered the policy but also engaged in the making of it. Bureaucrats had more than enough of authorities to may choose independently to either take passive-position as an object of politicization or becoming active political actor on the stage of political power competition. Considering more bureaucracy leaders transforming into political officials, this may lead to the re-establishment of bureaucratic polity in Indonesia in the near future.

Facebook Campaigning in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian Federal Elections

Canada’s federal elections in 2019 and 2021 produced a similar outcome—a minority Liberal government. These back-to-back elections provide an ideal context to understand trends in digital campaigning strategies and assess how the pandemic influenced campaigns’ use of social media. We examine how the three leaders of the major parties used Facebook in 2019 (<em>n</em> = 712) compared to 2021 (<em>n</em> = 979). The Conservative leader O’Toole posted more frequently than other candidates in 2021, fitting with the equalization theory of digital campaigning. In 2019 and 2021, the incumbent prime minister, Trudeau, received the most user engagement on his Facebook posts despite calling a snap election during a pandemic and less than two years into his mandate. These findings support normalization theories of digital campaigning with evidence of an accumulating incumbent advantage. The Covid-19 pandemic sidelined attention to climate change. We argue that the Liberal government owned both issues; we expected Trudeau to have greater attention to and user engagement for these policy posts. In general, Facebook posts about the pandemic yielded greater user engagement than posts that did not mention the pandemic. Candidates tested new campaign strategies in 2021, particularly making calls to interact with them; these posts yielded higher user engagement than posts that did not include a call to interact. While candidates used new social media campaign strategies, voter turnout declined from 2019 to 2021. These findings have implications for other democratic systems and the future of digital campaigning.

Timing and responsiveness in American political advertising campaigns

AbstractObjectiveThough candidates for political office use their campaigns to appeal to voters, they are unable to do so uninterrupted. Prior research suggests that they must respond to the advertising strategies employed by their opponents when determining their own strategies. How does this responsiveness vary across the campaign cycle?MethodsI test how general election television advertising responsiveness varies over the course of the campaign cycle using data from 256 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests.ResultsThe results of my analyses show that candidates' overall, negative, and (to an extent) issue‐based advertising strategies become less informed by their opponents' strategies as Election Day approaches.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that candidates use the early stages of their campaigns to find effective general advertising strategies and become less responsive to their opponents once they have done so. In other words, campaigns appear to stay on message to a greater extent as the campaign unfolds.

The role of gender in shaping mayoral grant-seeking behaviours

ABSTRACT Research suggests that women face anticipated stereotypes and voter penalisations in their pursuit of political office. To overcome these challenges women have to be better than men in terms of their experience, candidate quality, and political work. We test the hypothesis that women politicians exert more effort compared to men by analysing grant applications submitted by towns in Slovakia between 2016 and 2021. We investigate municipalities in a Slovak region where local governments apply for subsidies in two policy areas, one stereotypically feminine and one masculine. We test whether women apply more often for grants in the realm of the feminine policy compared to masculine policy. We find that municipalities led by women mayors are more active than those led by men mayors in the number of grant applications regardless of the area of policy. Our analysis confirms that once in political office, women show higher effort compared to men.

Work Environment and Job Performance: The Mediating Role of Office Ergonomics

This study aimed to address the influence of the Work Environment on employees’ health and safety, comfort, and task accomplishment by investigating office ergonomics as the possible underlying mechanism. The study was conducted in Dodoma City Council, specifically in the ward and Mitaa offices. Data were collected from 79 respondents through a questionnaire. Data were analyzed quantitatively using the Pearson correlation coefficient and regression analysis, and the Sobel test was performed to assess if the mediator variable was significant enough to mediate the relationship between variables. The study has found that work environment and ergonomics have a linear and positive relationship (r = 0.5433, p < .0001). The results have also indicated that ergonomics is related to employee health and safety, comfort, and task accomplishment. The study revealed that most offices in lower local government authorities in Dodoma City Council need ergonomically designed chairs and tables, adequate quality air, and lighting. Inadequacy of these elements risks the office bearers' health and safety, comfort, and performance. Therefore, ergonomics should be a strategic aspect in enhancing work efficiency and productivity in lower local government in Tanzania.

Belief in White Replacement

ABSTRACT The “White Replacement” conspiracy theory, that governments and corporations are “replacing” white people, is linked to several mass shootings. Given its recent ubiquity in elite rhetoric, concerns have arisen about the popularity of this conspiracy theory among the United States mass public. Further, political scientists have noted a need to understand why people believe or act upon this conspiracy theory. Using a 2022 US national survey (n = 2001), we find that a third of Americans agree that leaders are replacing white people with people of color. These beliefs are related to anti-social personality traits, various forms of nationalist and authoritarian sentiments, and negative sentiments toward immigrants, minorities, women, and the political establishment. Regression analysis however fails to find significant effects of partisanship and ideology on these beliefs. Further, we observed that these beliefs are related to a desire to engage in both normative (e.g., run for political office) and nonnormative political participation (e.g., commit violence). Given the popularity of White Replacement conspiracy theories in the US and elsewhere, our findings suggest new avenues for research into potentially dangerous beliefs, as well as xenophobia, antisemitism, racism, sexism, extremism, and political violence.

Reelekcja prezydenta w systemie politycznym Republiki Włoskiej. Od teorii do praktyki

The Constitution of the Italian Republic, in the section devoted to the head of state, does not refer anywhere to the issue of re-election or term limits. From the beginning of the Italian Republic, the debate on this issue was theoretical in nature, until 2013. Then, for the first time in history, a sitting president was elected for another term. The situation took place again in 2022. These events resulted in the transfer of the topic of re-election from a theoretical to a practical one, being perceived as a real tool in the hands of the electors. The aim of this work was to examine the issue of presidential re-election in the Italian political system. Legal and political analysis has shown that the presidential re-election, which for years was perceived in Italy as an undesirable solution, ultimately contributed twice to the stabilization of the Italian political system.

The determinants of political selection: a citizen-candidate model with valence signaling and incumbency advantage

AbstractWe expand the theory of politician quality in electoral democracies with citizen candidates by supposing that performance while in office sends a signal to the voters about the politician’s valence. Individuals live two periods and decide to become candidates when young, trading off against type-specific private wages. The valence signal increases the reelection chances of high valence incumbents (screening mechanism of reelection), and thus their expected gain from running for office (self-selection mechanism). Since self-selection improves the average quality of challengers, voters become more demanding when evaluating the incumbent’s performance. This complementarity between the self-selection and the screening mechanisms may lead to multiple equilibria. We show that more difficult and/or less variable political jobs increase the politicians’ quality. Conversely, societies with more wage inequality have lower quality polities. We also show that incumbency advantage blurs the screening mechanism by giving incumbents an upper-hand in electoral competition and may wipe out the positive effect of the screening mechanism on the quality of the polity.

Civility norm violations and political accountability

AbstractIntroductionThis short article investigates how violations of civility norms by politicians affect attitudes about the importance of norms and demand for political accountability after wrongdoing.ResultsOur main findings are twofold: (1) support for norms and (2) demand for punishing norm‐breaking increases when parties hold political officials accountable for their actions—especially in the case of in‐group norm‐breaking.ConclusionsThese findings contribute to a growing literature on Americans’ support for norms by implying that elites play an important role in sustaining the standards of democratic exchange. When elites impose punishment on copartisan elites, they signal to the public that accountability is acceptable.

Voting with Their Guns: An Integrated Framework of How Police Politically Administer Violence

Most analyses of the intersection of police, politics, and violence—which center on the police’s use of force as a means to control subordinate classes, repress political dissidents, or confront non-state armed actors—conceptualize the police as an instrument of political incumbents. In this paper, I problematize the relationship between the police and its political principals by focusing on how police administer violence as a political response in compliance or defiance of political incumbents. While elected officials may enact policy changes that restrain or incite police violence, police forces can either abide with or disregard these directives. Building on this interaction of policy shifts and police responses, I develop a typology of four variants of police administration of violence: peacekeeping, punishing, shirking, and sabotaging. I illustrate this typology with various examples from developed and developing democracies.

Which women win? How gender and context influence women's representation in the United StatesReview of the Qualification Gap: Why Women Must Be Better than Men to Win Political Office By Nichole M.Bauer.

Which women win? How gender and context influence women's representation in the <scp>United States</scp>Review of the Qualification Gap: Why Women Must Be Better than Men to Win Political Office By Nichole M.Bauer.

Green New Deals in comparative perspective

AbstractIn February 2019, Representative Alexandria Ocasio‐Cortez and Senator Ed Markey introduced into the US Congress a non‐binding resolution for a Green New Deal, with the aim to catalyze policies and programs to rapidly decarbonize the US economy while achieving wider progressive economic, social and environmental goals. This motion sparked widespread interest, in and beyond the US, in the potential for more ambitious and solidaristic climate policy under the banner of a Green New Deal (GND). This Overview, after introducing the history of the GND concept and exploring its dimensions in theory, provides a snapshot of GNDs proposed (or adopted/enacted) by politicians, candidates for political office, political parties and governments around the world in the period 2019–2022. Drawing on theories of comparative politics and comparative political economy, the Overview illuminates key patterns in the prevalence and content of this set of GND proposals, as well as their ideological underpinnings and implicit “theories of change.” Specifically, it ventures that: GND policies are more commonly proposed in high‐income, industrialized democracies; variation in GNDs' prevalence and content are associated with varieties of capitalism and electoral institutions; GND policies are more commonly proposed by left‐of‐center parties and candidates; and GNDs are being proposed at all levels of government, but their content is shaped by constraints on government powers. On the basis of this analysis, the concluding section proposes a detailed research agenda on GNDs, with an emphasis on comparative research.This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation &gt; Benefits of Mitigation Policy and Governance &gt; National Climate Change Policy Policy and Governance &gt; Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance