Political Discontent Research Articles

Education, political discontent, and emigration intentions: evidence from a natural experiment in Turkey

We exploit the 1997 school reform that prolonged compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years to investigate the causal effect of education on emigration intentions. Our IV estimates indicate that an additional year of schooling increases the probability of reporting the intention to emigrate by 24% points. Moreover, we provide evidence that the identified effect of education on emigration intentions does not operate through financial dissatisfaction, but rather through displeasure at a bleak political environment that better educated people are more keenly aware of.

Why Do Chinese Democrats Tend to Be More Nationalistic? Explaining Popular Nationalism in Urban China

ABSTRACT Popular nationalism remains strong in China. What drives this strong nationalistic sentiment? This is the key question this study attempts to answer. The authors are particularly interested in the connection between domestic politics and outward nationalist feelings among Chinese urban residents, specifically the relationship between democratic orientation and regime support on the one hand and nationalist feelings on the other. Descriptive findings from random survey data on Chinese urban residents in 34 Chinese cities reveal that democracy-oriented Chinese urbanites tend to show stronger nationalistic feelings. A large volume of literature on the relationship between democratic value and nationalistic sentiments, however, generally suggests that people with more liberal democratic values tend to be less nationalistic. How should one, then, reconcile and explain this seemingly contradictory relationship in China? Upon further research, the study finds that system support is a confounding factor affecting Chinese urban residents’ nationalistic sentiments. People with more nationalistic feelings tend to be those who show less support for the current system in China. Popular political discontent with the Chinese domestic system may very well have a spill-over effect on Chinese people’s nationalist feelings toward the outside world.

New political parties through the voters’ eyes

Scholars have mainly studied the formation of political parties on the macro-level, but to explain the conditions of successful party establishment it is important to understand the motivational underpinnings of voting for a new party on the individual level. Using cross-national voter surveys and long-term panel data from Germany (2005–2013) and the Netherlands (1998–2002), this study contrasts the implicit assumptions about voter behaviour of equilibrium- and protest-based theories on party emergence. Although proximity to a new party matters, the evidence does not support the equilibrium perspective’s tenet that new parties gain votes from citizens whose views were not represented in the preceding election. Moreover, political discontent was identified as fertile soil for new parties to gain electoral support, but the relationship between discontent and voting is more complex than theoretically suggested. These findings on individual voter behaviour may inform further theoretical work on the successful establishment of new political parties.

Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration

AbstractIn this article, I jointly investigate the political and the economic effects of immigration, and study the causes of anti-immigrant sentiments. I exploit exogenous variation in European immigration to U.S. cities between 1910 and 1930 induced by World War I and the Immigration Acts of the 1920s, and instrument immigrants’ location decision relying on pre-existing settlement patterns. I find that immigration triggered hostile political reactions, such as the election of more conservative legislators, higher support for anti-immigration legislation, and lower redistribution. Exploring the causes of natives’ backlash, I document that immigration increased natives’ employment, spurred industrial production, and did not generate losses even among natives working in highly exposed sectors. These findings suggest that opposition to immigration was unlikely to have economic roots. Instead, I provide evidence that natives’ political discontent was increasing in the cultural differences between immigrants and natives. Results in this article indicate that, even when diversity is economically beneficial, it may nonetheless be socially hard to manage.

Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration

In this paper, I jointly investigate the political and the economic effects of immigration and study the causes of anti-immigrant sentiments. I exploit exogenous variation in European immigration to U.S. cities between 1910 and 1930 induced by World War I and the Immigration Acts of the 1920s as well as instrument immigrants' location decision relying on pre-existing settlement patterns. I find that immigration triggered hostile political reactions, such as the election of more conservative legislators, higher support for anti-immigration legislation, and lower redistribution. Exploring the causes of natives' backlash, I document that immigration increased natives' employment, spurred industrial production, and did not generate losses even among natives working in highly exposed sectors. These findings suggest that opposition to immigration was unlikely to have economic roots. Instead, I provide evidence that natives' political discontent was increasing in the cultural differences between immigrants and natives. Results in this paper indicate that, even when diversity is economically beneficial, it may nonetheless be socially hard to manage.

LOLitics: The Content and Impact of Dutch Populist Internet Memes

Social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter have created a space for user generated content. Users create their own humorous pictures, catchphrases, hashtags or videos, called internet memes, which are widely shared via social media. These memes, often satirical, are also used to express political criticism. As such, it represents a new form of political participation and deserves further inquiry. This study (i) analyses the content of internet memes posted on Dutch right-wing populist Facebook pages; and (ii) using an experimental design, it examines the impact of memes on political cynicism and sympathy for politicians. The results show that (i) memes are more than just entertaining images. They are carriers of anger and political discontent; (ii) yet, there is not enough evidence to assert that memes affect political cynicism or attitudes towards politicians.

Locating Richard II in contemporary Athens

In Act 2 Scene 2 of Richard II, Bushy advises the Queen against ‘looking awry’ upon the King’s departure, comparing her gaze first to a perspective glass and then to a perspective picture that appears distorted unless viewed at an angle. I rely on this metaphor of anamorphosis to examine two recent productions of Richard II in Athens, both of which ‘distort’ the text and situate it in a bleak context. Viewed from the angle of the current political discontent, the 2014 and 2016 adaptations, directed by Elli Papakonstantinou and Efi Birba respectively, assume distinct meaning for the Athenian audience.

The Political Economy of the Globalization Backlash: Sources and Implications

A backlash against globalization has led to widespread political movements hostile both to economic integration and to existing political institutions throughout the advanced industrial world. Openness to the movement of goods, capital, and people has had important distributional effects. These effects have been particularly marked in communities dependent upon traditional manufacturing, some of which have experienced a downward spiral from the direct economic effects of foreign competition through broader economic decline to serious social problems. Those harmed by globalization have lashed out both at economic integration, and at the elites they hold responsible for their troubles. Political discontent is in part due to failures of compensation – insufficient provision of social safety nets for those harmed by economic trends. It is also due to failures of representation – the belief that prevailing political parties and politicians have not paid adequate attention to the problems faced by large groups of voters. Countries vary on both dimensions, as do national experiences with the populist upsurge. Previously dominant socio-economic interests and political actors may act to try to address this dissatisfaction, but the path faces serious economic and political obstacles.

Rejecting constitutional reform in the 2016 Italian referendum: analysing the effects of perceived discontent, incumbent performance and referendum-specific factors

ABSTRACT The rejection of constitutional reform in the 4 December 2016 referendum resulted in the resignation of Matteo Renzi. Numerous potential explanations could be offered for this result, reflecting political discontent, dissatisfaction with the governing coalition or disagreement with the specific referendum proposals. An analysis of the referendum results can thus serve to identify which of these aspects led to the ultimate rejection of the proposed constitutional changes and the incumbent prime minister. Secondary analysis of Italian Election Study (Itanes) data investigates the impact that interest in the referendum had on these factors. Results indicate that assessments of incumbent performance and referendum-specific factors had a stronger effect than political dissatisfaction. The evidence also suggests that assessments of incumbent performance and referendum-specific factors had even stronger effects among those particularly interested in the referendum.

Welfare or politics? A survey experiment of political discontent and support for redistribution in Hong Kong

This study examines support for redistribution in the developed economy of Hong Kong from three theoretical perspectives: self-interest, ideology, and social affinity. The analysis uses a between-subjects randomized vignette experiment to explore the interplay between welfare and politics; in particular, it addresses whether people express opposition to a welfare policy to convey political discontent even if they otherwise support the policy. Drawing on a survey of university students (N = 1245), the study finds that self-interest and ideology, and specifically perceptions of social mobility and individual responsibility, are strong predictors of support for redistribution. The vignette experiment provides evidence that politics indeed spills over into support for welfare policies. Respondents expressed less support for public housing if cued that the policy was associated with the government and were already dissatisfied with political leadership. The findings have implications for research on political support for redistribution and welfare policies.

Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration - Online Appendix A

In this paper, I show that political opposition to immigration can arise even when immigrants bring economic prosperity. I exploit exogenous variation in European immigration to US cities between 1910 and 1930 induced by World War I and the Immigration Acts of the 1920s, and instrument immigrants’ location decision relying on pre-existing settlement patterns. I find that immigration triggered hostile political reactions, such as the election of more conservative legislators, higher support for anti-immigration legislation, and lower public goods provision. Exploring the causes of natives’ backlash, I document that immigration increased natives’ employment and occupational standing, and fostered industrial production and capital utilization. Even in occupations highly exposed to immigrants’ competition, there were no employment or wage losses among natives, suggesting that political discontent was unlikely to have economic roots. Consistent with this interpretation, I provide evidence that natives’ backlash was increasing in the cultural differences between immigrants and natives. These results indicate that diversity might be economically beneficial but politically hard to manage.

Education, Political Discontent, and Emigration Intentions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Turkey

We exploit the 1997 school reform that increased compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years to investigate the causal effect of education on emigration intentions. Our IV estimates indicate that an additional year of schooling increases the probability of reporting the intention to emigrate by 24 percentage points. Moreover, we provide evidence that the identified effect of education on emigration intentions does not operate through financial dissatisfaction but rather through displeasure at a bleak political environment that better educated people are more keenly aware of.

The Social Sentiments of Workers of Ural Region in the Mid-1920s (with Reference to Information Bulletins of JSPD)

Referring to information reports of the Joint State Political Directorate ( Rus . OGPU), this article examines the social sentiments of workers of Ural Region and their causes and manifestations in the mid-1920s in the conditions of the New Economic Policy (NEP). The paper illustrates the main causes of negative sentiments among workers (high production rates, low wages, protective clothing, housing issues, etc.). Among important factors for the workers’ discontent were their tense relations with the factory administration provoked by its rudeness, as well as the inaction of trade union organisations, which often led to strikes. The period faced a steady increase in the number of strikes in Ural Region. In 1926, the number of strikes tripled compared to 1925. A large number of conflicts that led to strikes had an economic basis, i.e. they arose from failure of the administration to fulfil its obligations. The defiant, demonstrative behaviour of the administration of factories and specialists and their malpractice fueled the workers’ dissatisfaction. Workers compared the situation in the factories with the times of the tsar. As a result, political discontent and anti-Soviet and anti-Communist moods began to arise among industrial workers of the Urals. Thus, the social and economic situation of workers had little to do with the official status of the working class as a hegemonic class in Soviet Russia. At the same time, most workers were loyal to the Soviet government which they considered “their own”. The workers were more concerned about the economic aspects of their daily existence. Social unrest could become more widespread in case of deterioration of economic situation in the country but could hardly develop into political unrest.

Dissecting the Conditions of Political Protest. An Exploration of Interaction Effects in the Explanation of Political Protest

This study addresses the conditions for the participation in protest activities. Starting from social psychological value expectancy theory and the theory of collective action, we study the effects of political discontent, perceived political influence (efficacy), norms to participate, identity, and membership in protest encouraging networks (“social incentives”) on protest. This study challenges the common assumption that these factors have additive effects only and provides a detailed analysis of interaction effects. Another contribution is the theoretical derivation of interaction effects. Our empirical analyses refer to the protests in Leipzig (East Germany) in 1989 under communist rule. Two‐way interactions are found between the following pairs of variables: discontent, influence, and norms. “Identity” (i.e., identification with West Germany) only interacts with discontent. Furthermore, identification is a surrogate for discontent: If identification is strong, discontent no longer influences protest. If identification is weak, increasing discontent raises protest.

The political dimension of young people’s migration intentions: evidence from the Arab Mediterranean region

ABSTRACTThe academic literature largely attributes causes for migration to economic disparities between sending and receiving countries as well as to social networks and the presence family or friends overseas. Studies on political migration motives are mostly related to so-called forced migration, i.e. migration in the case of life-threatening situations, such as civil war and ethnic cleansing. Less attention has been paid to the political circumstances of voluntary migration. The paper at hand investigates this gap in the literature and examines the effect of several political indicators on young people’s intention to move abroad. The quantitative analysis is based on a unique survey data set from four Arab Mediterranean countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia), comprising information on about 8000 respondents aged between 15 and 29. Applying a multinomial logistic regression model, we show that political discontent significantly increases the intentions of young people to migrate. Among others, the perception of democracy and the ability to shape government policies are important determinants of migration intentions. Moreover, we find that the perception of corruption and the experience of violence in everyday life are particularly important in young people’s decision-making process.

Smallpox Vaccination in Early Colonial India

Using reports about local resistance of the smallpox vaccination between 1800 and 1805 in colonial India, this brief article analyses how the diversity in both the level and type of resistance, depicted in earlier primary sources, has been distorted by later accounts into a single category of ‘South Asian smallpox vaccination resistance’. Careful analysis of the historical primary documents demonstrates, however, that such resistance stemmed from a variety of reasons, including sanitary concerns, political discontent and practical difficulties in arriving at vaccination centres. The article therefore suggests the need for more careful handling of earlier primary sources in order to not lose evidence of early diversities in reactions to colonial interventions.

La desaprobación del Gobierno mexicano. Más que ineficiencia

This paper puts to test the hypothesis that Mexican citizens are dissatisfied with its government because it has not fulfilled expectations, mainly in regard to economy and security, since political discontent with Mexican government has become a problem for democracy in this country. Using data from the Latinobarometro, it was found that those with worse opinions of economy and security are actually those who held the worse opinion of the government. However, this relationship did not appear when real economic and security data were considered instead of the perception of these, so qualitative interviews were conducted, and it was found that citizens have a moral expectation of their officials that seems to determine their opinions and expectations. This moral demand doesn’t appear to be related to pragmatic government performance.

Cleavages, Protest or Voting for Hope? The Rise of Centrist Populist Parties in the Czech Republic

Clanek analyzuje volebni podporu středových populistických stran v Ceske republice. Na zakladě dat z narodnich volebnich studii a s využitim vybraných teorii volebniho chovani nejde volebni podporu těchto stran vysvětit pomoci tradicnich konfliktnich linii, ale pťedevsim pomoci hodnoceni valencnich charakteristik.

Early-Childhood Conduct Problems Predict Economic and Political Discontent in Adulthood: Evidence From Two Large, Longitudinal UK Cohorts

Longstanding interest has been directed toward the etiology of sociopolitical attitudes. Personality traits have been posited as antecedents; however, most work addressing such links has been limited to cross-sectional study designs. The current study used data from two large (both Ns > 8,700), longitudinal cohorts of individuals from the United Kingdom who were parent-assessed on a measure of temperament (assessing anxiety, conduct problems, and hyperactivity) at age 5 or 7 years and on a range of sociopolitical attitudes at age 30 or 33 years. In both cohorts, higher levels of childhood conduct problems predicted higher levels of economic and political discontent in adulthood. These associations were still evident when controlling for sex, childhood intelligence, and parental social class. In both cohorts, this pathway was partially mediated by educational attainment and achieved social class. These findings are consistent with the perspective that early-life temperament gives rise to adult political sentiment.

Why Women Protest: Insights from Ukraine's EuroMaidan

This article examines why Ukrainian women participated in the 2013–14 anti-government protests, widely known as the EuroMaidan. Based upon in-depth interviews with female protesters, the study uncovers a wide range of motivations for women's engagement in the revolution, including dissatisfaction with the government, solidarity with protesters, motherhood, civic duty, and professional service. Political discontent was the most cited reason for protesting. Solidarity with protesters was another major catalyst for political engagement. In addition, women who were mothers invoked the notion of mothering to provide a rationale for activism. The study contributes to the growing literature on women's participation in contentious politics in non-democracies.