Political Demography Research Articles

Demographic Consequences of Major Wars

This article investigates the demographic consequences of major wars and the determinants of post-war demographic recovery, analyzing severe conflicts from 1914 to 2010 in countries across various development levels and war types. Through an empirical evaluation of demographic recovery following major wars, this paper explores how several important factors, including political capacity, foreign aid, and human capital, influence recovery patterns in societies that have experienced these conflicts. The analysis suggests that populations tend to recover to pre-war levels within a generation, often exceeding them due to significant post-war baby booms. Political capacity appears to be associated with faster recovery, while the impact of foreign aid and human capital varies across different economic contexts. The research employs a large N time-series cross-section analysis, offering a comprehensive exploration of the dynamics involved in post-war demographic recovery. The results highlight the complex relationship between political, economic, and social factors, providing a valuable foundation for future research. By integrating insights from political demography, international relations, and population studies, these findings can guide the development of new theories and models to better understand the mechanisms of post-conflict recovery. Ultimately, this research aims to inform more effective strategies and policies for post-conflict reconstruction and development, promoting sustainable peace and stability in war-affected regions.

Political Demography: The Political Consequences of Structural Population Change

This article surveys the growing field of political demography, which explores the political consequences of structural population change. It underscores the importance of integrating demography and political sociology research to better understand the complex and nuanced relationship between demography and political dynamics. The existing research demonstrates profound and multifaceted impacts of demographic shifts on the political landscape, with different demographic factors having distinct political consequences. Notably, population composition and distribution tend to hold greater political significance than sheer population size and growth. Furthermore, while more research is needed, the existing work suggests that the effect of structural demographic factors is neither inevitable nor without limit; rather, the political consequences of demographic change often exhibit nonlinear patterns and interact with prevailing socioeconomic and institutional contexts. As demographic shifts continue to unfold globally, political demography stands as a promising and enlightening area of research that merits further inquiry.

Is Intending to Have Children Rightist? A Research Note on Political Ideology and Fertility Intentions

Abstract Social scientists have long been interested in how attitudes and values influence fertility intentions and behaviors. The role of political ideology has, on the contrary, been overlooked. Right-wing people tend to be more religious, to hold more traditional views on gender roles and on the importance of the family. Therefore, right-wing people may be more likely to hold positive fertility intentions that individuals with other political orientations. In addition, political ideology may have an effect on fertility intention independent of other attitudes. Using two rounds of the European Social Survey, we show that people that position at the extreme right of the political ideology scale are more likely to intend to have a child during the three years following the interview. This association holds even after accounting for several socio-demographic and economic factors, values and attitudes. Heterogeneity tests show that the association is restricted to younger individuals (aged 20–34), with higher levels of education (at least upper secondary), and individuals in Eastern Europe. In Southern Europe right-wing individuals show significantly higher predicted probabilities of a positive fertility intention compared people that locate themselves in the political center. The statistically significant associations are also sizeable (differences in terms of predicted probabilities vary between 4 and 9 percentage points). These results point to the importance of considering a neglected factor in fertility research and contribute to the growing field of Political Demography.

The Potential Impact of Demographic Changes in Geopolitical Landscape

In an era marked by swift demographic changes, the population of a country emerges as a crucial source of power and progress, shaping the future geopolitical landscape. This paper explores the dynamic interplay between evolving demographic elements and their intricate relationship with geopolitics. Through a synthesis of compelling cases and data-driven analysis, the paper provides fresh perspectives on the geopolitical ramifications of demographic transitions. The research incorporates a literature review, establishing the significance of population as a determinant of national power, offering a comprehensive overview of global demographic changes, and presenting an empirical analysis that underscores the role of demographic shifts as catalysts for geopolitical consequences. The study, grounded in political demography theory, integrates demographic aspects with geopolitical implications. Employing qualitative analysis, the research utilizes both numerical and non-numerical data from secondary sources to establish connections among variables. Overall, the discussion underscores that demographic shifts, ranging from declining population growth in certain nations to youth bulges in others, will exert profound impacts on the worldwide geopolitical landscape. It emphasises the necessity for nations to proactively address demographic challenges, through strategic policies that prioritize workforce development, social welfare, and international alliances. This proactive approach is deemed essential for ensuring sustained economic and military capabilities amidst the evolving geopolitical scenario.

Facilitating fertility decline through economic development: a principal-agent analysis of local bureaucratic incentives in China’s fertility transition

Despite close associations, political science had weak explanatory power for fertility transition. It often depicts the political processes of fertility transition as direct and coercive policies and mechanical execution without consideration of indirect bureaucratic processes. Drawing on principal-agent and economic-driven theories, this study established a novel model using 1980–2000 Chinese provincial panel data: local officials facilitated fertility decline through economic development for career advancement. System generalized method moments (GMM) and ordered logistic regression (OLM) results showed: (1) gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth (OR = 0.012) and total fertility rate (TFR) decline (OR = 0.026) increased promotion odds, while excessive TFR decline (over 37% within one term) decreased it; (2) the critical age (59) and tenure year (one year before leaving office) positively associated with GDP per capita, industrialization, and lower TFR; (3) GDP per capita and industrialization negatively associated with TFR. Facilitating fertility decline via economic development was an efficient, low-risk strategy for local officials compared to radical birth control campaigns. It was the first study applying principal-agent theory to explain how bureaucratic processes enabled fertility transitions. It combined political and economic-driven theories on fertility transition, advancing political demography and refining the social science paradigm on fertility transition.

Forecasting Political Disruption: The Impending Demographic Bonus in Indonesia.

A demographic bonus is expected in Indonesia between 2030 and 2045 when people of productive age (16-65 years old) will dominate the country's economic and political systems. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the demographic bonus has the potential to produce turmoil in Indonesian politics. This study is based on the 'political demography' idea, which states that having a large number of young people in a country destabilizes its political structure. Three reasons contribute to this: the democratic and political system, economic factors, and prejudice against specific ethnicities and religions. According to the findings of this study, the author discovered factors that have the potential to cause turbulence in Indonesia's political system, such as Indonesia's unstable democratic and political system, as well as discrimination that can lead to protests from minorities against their unequal participation in Indonesian politics.

People and Places: The Contextual Side of Politics in Demography and Geography

The disciplines of political demography and geography examine the interplay between social behaviors, spatial dimensions, politics, and policy. Investigations into demographic shifts, driven by evolving social norms or domestic and international political events, can influence numerous critical dependent variables in international relations, such as trade, development, and inter- and intra-state conflict. Similarly, geography and the interconnection of space with independent variables, such as power, wealth, and culture, yield similar insights. In this article, we employ a systemist approach from the Visual International Relations Project (VIRP) to provide a brief overview of the theoretical intersection between geography, demography, and international relations focusing on using VIRP to teach these subjects. To accomplish this, we have selected two representative pieces of literature from each field. For demography, we examine Hendrik Urdal’s A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence, and for geography, we review Alex Braithwaite’s The Geographic Spread of Militarized Disputes. These seminal articles in their respective fields demonstrate the clear applicability of demography and geography to international politics scholarship.

The Aging Democracy: Demographic Effects, Political Legitimacy, and the Quest for Generational Pluralism

The political implications of population aging for democratic systems are fundamental. Questions of democratic legitimacy are raised as the political equilibrium between the generations is upended. Drawing on evidence from liberal democracies with a focus on Japan, the democracy with the oldest electorate, we identify and analyze three demographic effects on the political system: participation effects deriving from younger voters’ marginalization among the electorate; representation effects demonstrated by the dominance of elderly lawmakers inside the parliament and government; and policy effects manifesting in a preference for policies catering to an aging majority. By breaking down these key effects and contextualizing them in broader debates of political demography, we call attention to the normative repercussions of the interplay between demography and democracy and make a case for enhanced generational pluralism.

The Socio Political Demography of Happiness

The Socio Political Demography of Happiness

Moving towards the centre or the exit? Migration in population studies and in Population Studies 1996–2021

This paper examines the position of migration in population studies, focusing on the period 1996–2021. It considers the reasons why migration remains problematic for demographers, but also how approaches to migration have changed over the last 25 years. While it has arguably become more important to both demography and population studies because of the transition to low fertility and mortality, migration has metamorphosed into a complex field in its own right, almost independently from changes in demography. Both internal and international migration form the subject of this examination and four main themes are pursued: data and measurement; theories and approaches; migration and development; and migration and political demography. The papers published in the journal Population Studies are used to provide a mirror through which to view these changes over the last 25 years. This paper concludes by looking at likely future directions in migration studies, demography, and population studies.

The environmental politics of reproductive choices in the age of climate change

ABSTRACT The ethics of having children in the age of climate change is increasingly being discussed, but the political dimensions of individual reproductive choices in relation to climate change have been almost entirely ignored. This lacuna is addressed by drawing on a survey of 607 climate leftists who were factoring climate change into their reproductive plans and choices. Using a grounded theory approach, it identifies four dimensions of the connection between reproductive choices and environmental politics in the age of climate change: the parental investment in environmental politics; children as future environmentalists; the opportunity cost of parenting; and fertility as a socio-political tool. It adds reproductive plans and choices to the range of ways in which individuals conceive of themselves and act as environmental political actors, situating these results within the scholarship on eco-reproductive concerns, environmental micropolitics, environmental lifestyle movements, green parenting, and political demography.

Introduction: Political Demography as an Analytical Window on our World

Introduction: Political Demography as an Analytical Window on our World

Populations and Policies in a Younger but Faster-Aging East Central Europe: The Political Demography of Missed Opportunity

The new democracies in East Central Europe started the post-communist era with comparatively young populations. After 1989-1990, they have largely spurned a quarter-century long demographic window of opportunity for reform, by insufficiently adapting their policy models to prepare for fast population aging ahead. Especially in Romania, Bulgaria and the Visegrad Four, this is reflected in low active aging and child wellbeing index rankings, relatively small social investment in early human capital, weak improvements in prospective old age dependency ratios, and large-scale emigration. Slovenia and the Visegrad Four, but not the Baltics, also became „pensioners‘ welfare states“ with prematurely strong pro-elderly policy bias. In some cases, massive early exit worsened pension system sustainability while boosting pensioners‘ electoral power (political push before demographic pull). However, around the time when the demographic window started closing (2010-2015), the political salience of family policies, work-family reconciliation policies, and active aging policy increased, often spurred by the same Christian-conservative and/or nationalist-populist parties that caused illiberal democratic backsliding. But by then, the relative political power of elderly voters during elections in East Central Europe was among the highest in the world.

«МОЛОДЕЖНЫЕ БУГРЫ» В ЕВРОПЕ И АЗИИ: ИСТОРИЧЕСКАЯ ПЕРСПЕКТИВА И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ФАКТОРЫ АКТИВИЗАЦИИ РИСКОВ

The article considers the phenomenon of “youth bulges” - the appearance in the population structure of numerous youth cohorts. The connection between the emergence of a “youth bulges” in society and the risks of political destabilization, which attracted the attention of a number of experts in the field of political demography, is analyzed and confirmed by examples from countries of two regions - Europe and Asia, where, unlike Europe, the influence of the phenomenon of “youth bulges” on political stability was not previously considered systematically. A significant layer of scientific literature has been analyzed and systematized, considering economic factors that increase the risk of political destabilization against the backdrop of a “youth bulges”; the key factors of an economic nature and their relationship with each other are highlighted.

Demographic Engineering and International Conflict: Evidence from China and the Former USSR

AbstractWhen and where do states coercively alter their internal demography? We build a theory that predicts under what conditions states alter the demographic “facts on the ground” by resettling and expelling ethno-national populations. We predict that, under particular scope conditions, states will employ demographic engineering to shore up control over (1) nonnatural frontiers, and (2) areas populated by ethnic minorities who are co-ethnics with elites in a hostile power. We then substantiate our predictions using new subnational data from both China and the USSR. Causally identifying the spatially differential effect of international conflict on demographic engineering via a difference-in-differences design, we find that the Sino-Soviet split (1959–1982) led to a disproportionate increase in the expulsion of ethnic Russians and resettlement of ethnic Han in Chinese border areas lacking a natural border with the USSR, and that resettlement was targeted at areas populated by ethnic Russians. On the Soviet side, we similarly find that the Sino-Soviet split led to a significant increase in expulsion of Chinese and the resettlement of Russians in border areas, and that resettlement was targeted at areas populated by more Chinese. We develop the nascent field of political demography by advancing our theoretical and empirical understanding ofwhen, where, andto whomstates seek to effect demographic change. By demonstrating that both ethnic group concentration and dispersion across borders are endogenous to international conflict, our results complicate a large and influential literature linking ethnic demography to conflict.

Toward a gender politics of aging

ABSTRACTThe article proposes a Gender Politics of Aging approach to the study of aging societies. The approach recognizes the feminization of old age, ageism’s roots in sexist discourse, and the need to recognize the role of politics in driving demographic debates. Drawing together arguments from feminist gerontology and political demography, the article argues that the intersection of politics and gender must be considered if appropriate responses to an older, feminized demography are to be produced. I conclude that the work of aging feminists provides a rich vein of research and praxis from which a gender politics of aging approach can draw.

Demografia polityczna i możliwości dla polityki pronatalistycznej w Polsce

Political demography links demographic findings with public policies aimed at achieving state goals. Current challenge of population aging causes threat to internal financial stability and well-being of the elderly. Aging also questions countries’ international position due to possibly reduced financial capability to maintain geopolitical power, and in extreme situation of lowest low fertility also due to continuous, unstoppable decline in the population size. In case of Poland, aging alone would result in almost doubling expenditure on pensions and healthcare. To respond to social and geopolitical challenges, the government should primarily focus on policies aimed at stimulating births. To foster pronatalist policies, factors affecting fertility may be grouped into five categories: economic, cultural, psychological, infrastructural and unplanned. All these factors influence childbearing behaviour simultaneously. Some of them constitute barriers to fertility (which need to be eliminated) and the others facilitate fertility (and they need to be strengthened). The barriers include financial constraints, individualistic values, financial insecurity, union instability, insufficient support network and lack of family-friendly employment. Identified facilitators in turn include pension system linking benefits with number of children (family pension system) and family-oriented aspirations and values with religion as a vital ingredient. Father commitment to family life impacts both as facilitator and by eliminating barriers.

Rethinking the Youth Bulge and Violence

The dominance of a generation of combat age, high levels of education combined with high unemployment, failed cities, and the relatively long duration of the transitional period still constitute an appropriate atmosphere for the explosion of a new wave of youth violence in the Middle East. The author takes Egypt as a case study. Egypt witnessed an unprecedented spike in violence following the revolution of January 25, 2011. This article first examines the political violence through the lens of political demography, drawing partly on Henrik Urdal’s theses on the impact of demographic factors on the risk of political violence, but more broadly documents and analyses the trajectory of youth movements’ involvement with violence in relation to issues of employment, education and urbanisation.

Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics

Political demography: How population changes are reshaping international security and national politics, edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Eric P. Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft, 2012. 336pp. $39.95, paperback. ISBN: 978-0199945962. Andrew Noymer & Haruka C. Hatori University of California, Irvine noymer@uci.edu Social scientists sometimes don't know what to do about demography, the study of pattern and process in population. Births, deaths, and migration are the three major demographic forces, and all three clearly interact with other social phenomena. Nonetheless, demography (when not ignored altogether) is often treated either as a given (e.g., large cohorts resulting from the post-war baby boom), or as a mechanical consequence of purely social phenomena (e.g., low fertility as a result of female empowerment). Full-blooded demography, complete with feedback loops and population growth rates that are governed by all three of the forces, is a difficult animal to domesticate when it comes to integration with other social science studies. The present volume is a successful effort to bring demography together with political science, both in the domestic and international spheres. Political demography has eighteen chapters, of which one is an introduction by two of the editors (EPK and MDT), and one is a conclusion by the third editor (JAG). The remaining sixteen chapters are by the editors as well as sixteen other scholars. The volume has five parts: (I) Political demography and political science (two chapters, of which one is the introduction to the book); (II) Population and international security (three chapters); (III) Demography, development, and conflict (four chapters); (IV) Demography and national politics (four chapters); (V) Demography in ethnic and religious conflicts (four chapters); and a final concluding chapter. All the chapters are readable and self- contained, making this a useful classroom text at the advanced undergraduate or graduate level. The book begins with a chapter-by-chapter overview. Following in chapter 2 is a useful introduction to political demography by Jack Goldstone, which gives a crash course in demography (to the extent to which that's possible in 19 pages) and its application to political science. Three demographic trends that will shape the global future are highlighted (pp. 25–7). These will persuade even the most skeptical that demography cannot be ignored: (1) “the relative [demographic] decline of Europe and the Americas compared to Asia and Africa”; (2) “older rich countries and very poor young ones”; (3) “migration, migration everywhere”. The inter-relationships among these three trends hardly require elaboration, for instance with the third being driven by the first two. The ongoing trans-Mediterranean maritime migration crisis at the time of this review is only one example of how these forces are shaping the world. In chapter 3, Neil Howe and Richard Jackson place the importance of demography in historical context, building an argument for its pivotal role in geopolitics. Parts of the world are “hyperaging” (p. 31). By 2050, “at least half of Americans will be over age 40 and at least half of Europeans will be over age 50” (ibid.). Howe and Jackson are critical of those who are too slow, in their view, to realize the implications of these massive demographic changes. Chapter 4, by Mark L. Haas, looks at what happens when costs associated with cohort aging are not offset by cohort savings, with a focus on the United States in international perspective. He puts it well when he notes that “Rarely can analysts of international politics claim to be documenting new phenomena. Global population aging, however, is one of these revolutionary variables.” (pp 50–1). Moreover, he cautions that “It is worth stressing that predictions for aging in the great powers are unlikely to be wrong. The reason for this certainty is simple: The elderly of the future are already born” (p. 52). Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba gives an overview

Демографический дайджест

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