Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics

Abstract

Political demography: How population changes are reshaping international security and national politics, edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Eric P. Kaufmann and Monica Duffy Toft, 2012. 336pp. $39.95, paperback. ISBN: 978-0199945962. Andrew Noymer & Haruka C. Hatori University of California, Irvine noymer@uci.edu Social scientists sometimes don't know what to do about demography, the study of pattern and process in population. Births, deaths, and migration are the three major demographic forces, and all three clearly interact with other social phenomena. Nonetheless, demography (when not ignored altogether) is often treated either as a given (e.g., large cohorts resulting from the post-war baby boom), or as a mechanical consequence of purely social phenomena (e.g., low fertility as a result of female empowerment). Full-blooded demography, complete with feedback loops and population growth rates that are governed by all three of the forces, is a difficult animal to domesticate when it comes to integration with other social science studies. The present volume is a successful effort to bring demography together with political science, both in the domestic and international spheres. Political demography has eighteen chapters, of which one is an introduction by two of the editors (EPK and MDT), and one is a conclusion by the third editor (JAG). The remaining sixteen chapters are by the editors as well as sixteen other scholars. The volume has five parts: (I) Political demography and political science (two chapters, of which one is the introduction to the book); (II) Population and international security (three chapters); (III) Demography, development, and conflict (four chapters); (IV) Demography and national politics (four chapters); (V) Demography in ethnic and religious conflicts (four chapters); and a final concluding chapter. All the chapters are readable and self- contained, making this a useful classroom text at the advanced undergraduate or graduate level. The book begins with a chapter-by-chapter overview. Following in chapter 2 is a useful introduction to political demography by Jack Goldstone, which gives a crash course in demography (to the extent to which that's possible in 19 pages) and its application to political science. Three demographic trends that will shape the global future are highlighted (pp. 25–7). These will persuade even the most skeptical that demography cannot be ignored: (1) “the relative [demographic] decline of Europe and the Americas compared to Asia and Africa”; (2) “older rich countries and very poor young ones”; (3) “migration, migration everywhere”. The inter-relationships among these three trends hardly require elaboration, for instance with the third being driven by the first two. The ongoing trans-Mediterranean maritime migration crisis at the time of this review is only one example of how these forces are shaping the world. In chapter 3, Neil Howe and Richard Jackson place the importance of demography in historical context, building an argument for its pivotal role in geopolitics. Parts of the world are “hyperaging” (p. 31). By 2050, “at least half of Americans will be over age 40 and at least half of Europeans will be over age 50” (ibid.). Howe and Jackson are critical of those who are too slow, in their view, to realize the implications of these massive demographic changes. Chapter 4, by Mark L. Haas, looks at what happens when costs associated with cohort aging are not offset by cohort savings, with a focus on the United States in international perspective. He puts it well when he notes that “Rarely can analysts of international politics claim to be documenting new phenomena. Global population aging, however, is one of these revolutionary variables.” (pp 50–1). Moreover, he cautions that “It is worth stressing that predictions for aging in the great powers are unlikely to be wrong. The reason for this certainty is simple: The elderly of the future are already born” (p. 52). Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba gives an overview