Policy Targets Research Articles

US Immigration Policy Stressors and Latinx Youth Mental Health

The youth mental health crisis is exacerbated for Latinx adolescents, a group whose families are targets of anti-immigrant rhetoric and policy. To investigate how immigration-related stressors are associated with disruptions in parent-child relationships and, in turn, the mental health symptoms of Latinx adolescents. Data for this prospective cohort study of adolescent-mother dyads were derived from surveys completed at 3 time points spanning 4 years (time 1 [T1] in 2018, time 2 [T2] in 2020, and time 3 [T3] in 2022). Mediation analyses estimated paths from immigration-related stressors to parent-child relationship qualities to mental health symptoms from early to late adolescence. Multivariable and multivariate linear models within a structural equation modeling framework regressed mediators and outcome variables on their own T1 values, offering a scientifically rigorous test of mediation. The setting was a school district in suburban Atlanta, Georgia, and included Latinx adolescents (ages 11-16 years) randomly selected from grade and gender strata. Data were analyzed from June 2023 to March 2024. The primary independent variables were T1 mother reports of anti-immigrant worry and behavioral modification and adolescent reports of family member detention or deportation. Mediating variables were the reports of parental support and parent-child conflict of T2 adolescents. T3 adolescent reports of past 6-month internalizing and externalizing symptoms. A total of 547 Latinx adolescents (mean [SD] age, 13.3 [1.0] years; 303 female [55.4%]; 244 male [44.6%]) were included in this study. Response rates were 65.2% (547 of 839) among contacted parents and 95.3% (547 of 574) among contacted adolescents with parental permission. Four-year retention rates were 67% (366 of 547 adolescents) and 65% (177 of 271 mothers). Structural model results showed that T1 anti-immigrant worry and behavioral modification was associated with T3 increases in externalizing symptoms indirectly through T1 to T2 increases in parent-child conflict (β = 0.03; SE = 0.02; 95% CI, 0-0.08). For girls, T1 family member deportation or detention was associated with T1 to T3 increases in internalizing and externalizing symptoms indirectly through T1 to T2 declines in parental support (internalizing: β = 0.04; SE = 0.02; 95% CI, 0-0.08; externalizing: β = 0.03; SE = 0.02; 95% CI, 0-0.07). Sensitivity analyses supported structural model findings. Results of this cohort study suggest that legislative bodies, the health care system, and educational institutions should implement safeguards to mitigate potential harm conferred by anti-immigrant environments for parent-child relationships and, in turn, Latinx adolescents' mental health.

Early-Neonatal, Late-Neonatal, Postneonatal, and Child Mortality Rates Across India, 1993-2021

The global success of the child survival agenda depends on how rapidly mortality at early ages after birth declines in India, and changes need to be monitored to evaluate the status. To understand the disaggregated patterns of decrease in early-life mortality across states and union territories (UTs) of India. Repeated cross-sectional data from the 5 rounds of the National Family Health Survey conducted in 1992-1993, 1998-1999, 2005-2006, 2015-2016, and 2019-2021 were used in a representative population-based study. The study was based on data of children born in the past 5 years with complete information on date of birth and age at death. The analysis was conducted in February 2024. Time and geographic units. Mortality rates were computed for 4 early-life periods: early-neonatal (first 7 days), late-neonatal (8-28 days), postneonatal (29 days to 11 months), and child (12-59 months). For early and late neonatal periods, the rates are expressed as deaths per 1000 live births, for postneonatal, as deaths per 1000 children aged at least 29 days and for child, deaths per 1000 children aged at least 1 year. These are collectively mentioned as deaths per 1000 for all mortalities. The relative burden of each of the age-specific mortalities to total mortality in children younger than 5 years was also computed. The final analytical sample included 33 667 (1993), 29 549 (1999), 23 020 (2006), 82 294 (2016), and 64 242 (2021) children who died before their fifth birthday in the past 5 years of each survey. Mortality rates were lowest for the late-neonatal and child periods; early-neonatal was the highest in 2021. Child mortality experienced the most substantial decrease between 1993 and 2021, from 33.5 to 6.9 deaths per 1000, accompanied by a substantial reduction in interstate inequalities. While early-neonatal (from 33.5 to 20.3 deaths per 1000), late-neonatal (from 14.1 to 4.1 deaths per 1000), and postneonatal (from 31.0 to 10.8 deaths per 1000) mortality also decreased, interstate inequalities remained notable. The mortality burden shifted over time and is now concentrated during the early-neonatal (48.3% of total deaths in children younger than 5 years) and postneonatal (25.6%) periods. A stagnation or worsening for certain states and UTs was observed from 2016 to 2021 for early-neonatal, late-neonatal, and postneonatal mortality. If this pattern continues, these states and UTs will not meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal targets related to child survival. In this repeated cross-sectional study of 5 time periods, the decrease in mortality during early-neonatal and postneonatal phases of mortality was relatively slower, with notable variations across states and UTs. The findings suggest that policies pertaining to early-neonatal and postneonatal mortalities need to be prioritized and targeting of policies and interventions needs to be context-specific.

Financial inclusion, economic development, and inequality: Evidence from Brazil

We study a financial inclusion policy targeting Brazilian cities with low bank branch coverage using data on the universe of employees from 2000–2014. The policy leads to bank entry and to similar increases in both deposits and lending. It also fosters entrepreneurship, employment, and wage growth, especially for cities initially in banking deserts. These gains are not shared equally and instead increase with workers’ education, implying a substantial increase in wage inequality. The changes in inequality are concentrated in cities where the initial supply of skilled workers is low, indicating that talent scarcity can drive how financial development affects inequality.

Assessing the interconnected effects of policy interventions on shrimp farming expansion and mangrove ecosystems through system dynamics

Since the early 2000s, Ca Mau has experienced a rapid boom in shrimp farming, leading to the conversion of mangroves into shrimp ponds and impeding mangrove forest conservation. Despite its negative environmental impacts, shrimp aquaculture remains vital to Ca Mau’s economy by providing employment opportunities and contributing to the province’s gross domestic product. This study constructed a system dynamic model to analyze the complex system of shrimp aquaculture and mangrove forests under two development scenarios: the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario and the Policy scenario. In the BAU scenario, shrimp aquaculture will continue to expand, resulting in the conversion of more mangroves into ponds and a decrease in Ca Mau’s mangrove forest to 70,349 (± 888.801) hectares in 2050. However, this expansion will bolster rural employment and the province’s economy, generating 14,250 (± 0.336) billion VND (US$ 570 million) in 2050. Conversely, in the Policy scenario, stabilizing shrimp areas at 280,000 hectares as a policy target will regulate mangrove conversion, allowing mangroves to regenerate (77,016 (± 687.155) hectares in 2050) and enhancing carbon storage (65 × 106 (± 0.58 × 106) MgC in 2050). However, challenges arise in the Policy scenario concerning potential economic stagnation, conflicts with other development priorities, and rural job losses. Officials must consider more than just the area of shrimp ponds to achieve sustainable development. Effective land use strategies should be implemented to ensure equilibrium between shrimp aquaculture and mangroves. Diversifying economic activities and promoting alternative livelihoods can mitigate the dependence on shrimp farming and offset the effects of policy interventions.

Warming the MATRIX: Uncertainty and heterogeneity in climate change impacts and policy targets in the Euro Area

This paper explores the potential impacts of climate change and mitigation policies in the Euro Area, considering the uncertainty and heterogeneity in both climate and economic systems. Using the MATRIX model, a multi-sector and multi-agent macroeconomic model, we simulate various climate scenarios by employing different carbon cycle models, damage functions, and marginal abatement curves found in the literature. We find that heterogeneous climate damages amplify both the magnitude and the volatility of GDP losses associated with global warming. By the end of the century, we estimate that assuming homogeneous shocks may underestimate the effects of climate change on aggregate output by up to one-third. Moreover, we find that the speed and feasibility of a low-carbon transition crucially depend on (i) the ambition in emission reduction targets set by the policymaker, which determine the level of a carbon tax, and (ii) the rate of technological progress, which influences the shape of the abatement cost curve.

Critical, connected and caring: older adults’ agency during the COVID-19 pandemic

Considering (1) the current context of social and economic polarisation in Eastern Europe, which represents older people as experiencing ‘red nostalgia’ and presents them as passive citizens, and (2) the increased vulnerabilities of older people during the COVID-19 pandemic as a main target of restrictive policies, we explored the experiences of older people during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Romania in 2020. We carried out 12 semi-structured interviews with older people from rural and urban areas to understand how they experienced the lockdown period and made sense of the pandemic. We perceived the pandemic as a holistic experience that affected different aspects of social life. We learned that older people manifested their agency in multiple forms. First, they were critical of lockdown measures imposed on them while at the same time understanding the need to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus, signalling a more complex political subjectivity among this group than popular narratives suggest. Second, older people made heavy independent use of information and communications technology. Lastly, all interviewees shared a sense of care for people they considered to be more vulnerable than themselves, illustrating that older people are not only the target of care and empathy by others in society but also the source of care and empathy for others in society. These aspects situate older people as active citizens, critical of the state, engaged in the use of technology and caring for people other than those in their immediate circle – all signs that they are actively part of the flow of society.

Reproduction of higher education personnel: motives for entry and retention measures

Introduction. The trends in the reproduction of intellectual resources have a significant development potential worldwide towards the realisation of a proper strategy for increasing the countries’ competitiveness. The stimulating programmes for the development of national universities set a due benchmark for the elaboration and testing of new ways to attract young people to the scientific and educational environment, as well as the formation of professional commitment. The accumulated practice of implementing federal programmes to support science and education raises a question of the outcome and efficiency of measures funded by the state. The aim of the study is to identify the dominant motives of the teaching staff belonging to the “young personnel” category for long-term work in the profession and at the university, as a consequence of the managerial measures applied by the administration. Materials and methods. To diagnose the priorities in the structure of young people’s motives to work in the system of higher education, the data obtained from a survey of young university specialists were used. The survey involved 140 people with different lengths of work experience in higher education. To assess the effectiveness of managerial practices aimed at retaining young specialists, a semi-structured interview with managers who realise the tasks of searching for, attracting, and retaining young people at universities was held. A total of 25 professionals took part in the interviewing: heads of departments, deans and vice-rectors of three Siberian universities. The methods of statistical data processing and assessment of the experts’ opinions coherence (Kendall’s coefficient of concordance) were applied. Results. The dominant motivations for young people to stay in higher education are: the system’s resource and readiness to support initiatives of young teachers–researchers (3.9 p.); regular self-education and professional growth (3.9), lucrative compensation (3.6), and the opportunity to work in priority branches of science (3.4). The higher school associates the transformation of all basic activity processes with staff rejuvenation: change in the format of communicating with stakeholders; intensification of work performance methods, as well as strengthening of intellectual, emotional, and professional resilience of work teams. The output and impact of the measures to stimulate due professional commitment were assessed. A major instrument contributing to high efficiency is represented by communication support measures based on regular feedback and included in individual adaptation and professional development programmes. Conclusion. The management system has to solve the staff rejuvenation problem at two levels: operational and strategic. It is necessary today to seek due options for the implementation of policy decisions and target indicators, and simultaneously to lay the foundations for involving specialists in the future scientific and educational environment. The application of different meaningful content actions in solving a particular task entails the manager’s professional deformation and blurring of the rules of interaction with the subject of labour.

The state of mental health among Ebola virus disease survivors through a cross-sectional study in Sierra Leone

BackgroundThe West African Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic resulted in >28 000 disease cases and >11 000 fatalities. The unprecedented number of survivors from this epidemic has raised questions about...

Vision impairment and food insecurity in the national health and aging trends study

Vision impairment and food insecurity in the national health and aging trends study

Residual emissions and carbon removal towards Japan’s net-zero goal: a multi-model analysis

We study Japan’s net-zero emissions target by 2050 in a multi-model framework, focusing on residual emissions and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Four energy-economic and integrated assessment models show similar but stronger strategies for the net-zero target, compared to the previous, low-carbon policy target (80% emissions reduction). Results indicate that around 90% (inter-model median) of the current emissions are reduced through abatement, including improved energy efficiency and cleaner electricity and fuels. Models deploy new options such as CDR based on carbon capture and storage (CCS) (bioenergy with CCS and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage) and hydrogen to achieve net zero. The scale of CCS-based CDR deployment reaches an inter-model median of 132Mt-CO2/yr. The median hydrogen share of final energy in 2050 increases from 0.79% to 6.9% between the low-carbon and net-zero scenarios. The CDR sensitivity analysis reveals that limiting the use of CDR significantly increases the mitigation costs for net zero. Achieving Japan’s net-zero goal will require exploring methods to reduce residual emissions, including demand-side solutions, and accelerating responsible CDR policies.

Revealing Daily Mobility Pattern Disparities of Monomodal and Multimodal Travelers through a Multi-Layer Cluster Analysis: Insights from a Combined Big Dataset

More detailed and precise mobility patterns are needed for policies to reduce monomodal automotive dependency and promote multimodality in travel behaviors. Yet, empirical evidence from an integrated view of a complete door-to-door trip mode chain with daily mobility for pattern identification is still lacking. As an improvement and a solution on this issue, a multi-layer cluster model was designed and proposed for distinguishing 20 mobility pattern clusters, including six monomodal traveler groups, two non-transit multimodal traveler groups, and 12 transit multimodal based on big data mining. Statistical analysis with seven indicator measurements and a spatial distribution analysis with the Kernel density GIS maps of travelers’ residential location were carried out to reveal significant disparities across pattern clusters concerning spatial, social, and trip characteristics, based on which more precise and target policies for each group were discussed. This research may help provide more detailed information in establishing traveler mobility pattern profiles and solutions in filling the planning–implementation gap from the perspective of planners, policymakers, and travelers.

Investasi, Inflasi dan Konsumsi: Pengaruhnya terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Kalimantan Selatan

Economic growth is used as an important indicator in measuring the success or failure of economic development. A growing economy indicates economic development that each economic sector has achieved within a certain period. This research aims to determine the economic growth in South Kalimantan in terms of investment, inflation, and consumption. The research method used in this research is multiple linear regression analysis using hypothesis testing, namely the t-test and F-test, based on data obtained in time-series form with an observation period from 2006 to 2021. Secondary data from published data from the Agency The Statistics Center (BPS) of South Kalimantan Province forms investment performance values, inflation, and consumption as independent variables. Meanwhile, the dependent variable is economic growth. The research results prove that economic growth is partially influenced by inflation and consumption; high unstable inflation will hurt economic growth, and high consumption will encourage economic performance. Meanwhile, investment does not affect the economic growth of South Kalimantan because the amount of investment depends on the efficiency and accuracy of policy targets, the availability of adequate human resources and infrastructure, and a stable political situation. Investment, inflation, and consumption variables influence the simultaneous test of economic growth in South Kalimantan.

Clean heating and clean air: Evidence from the coal-to-gas program in China

Environmental degradation, especially air pollution, has been a prevalent problem in China in recent decades. Rather than focus on traditional regulatory policies aimed at enterprises engaged in production activities, this paper studies the effects of the clean heating policy targeting residents in China. Taking the coal-to-gas program as a quasi-natural experiment and using a city-level dataset of daily air quality, we study the effects of the clean heating policy implemented in Beijing and its surrounding areas on air quality with the difference-in-differences method. The results show that the clean heating policy significantly reduced air pollution in coal-to-gas cities, bringing improved economic welfare, with stronger effects in Beijing's neighboring cities. We find no evidence suggesting a decreasing policy effect over time. In addition, we find that increasing subsidies can further enhance the policy's effectiveness. We also test the spatial spillover effects of this policy and calculate its geographical boundary. Changing the energy structure in conjunction with regulating residential emissions is crucial to improving air quality.

Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy

What inflation measure should central banks target? This paper highlights a mechanism where monetary policy optimally targets headline inflation if households pay limited attention to different consumption categories when forming inflation expectations. This result stands in contrast to standard rational expectations models, where optimal policy targets core inflation. The core inflation rate excludes volatile energy and food prices (non-core) from headline inflation. Using novel survey data on inflation expectations for disaggregated consumption categories, I find household expectations are disproportionately driven by beliefs about future non-core prices. A model of bounded rationality accounts for the empirical evidence. While forming inflation expectations, households pay more attention to the volatile non-core components. Embedding this framework into a multi-sector New Keynesian model, I show that targeting headline rather than core inflation provides welfare gains.

Inflation Targeting in South Africa

South Africa had formally introduced a policy of inflation targeting (IT) in February 2000. By December 2001, the governor of the South African Reserve Bank, after reading the latest statistics, was concerned with the disappointing economic data. Economic activity had slowed drastically, to the point that the country appeared to be heading for a recession. The gloomy statistics forced the governor to consider whether the country had pursued the right policy. Persistently high unemployment, one legacy of the apartheid era, meant that South Africa did not have the luxury of waiting for new policies to bear fruit. With the inflation forecast to exceed the mandated target, the governor would have to tighten monetary policy, which would further restrict investment. Was it is time for South Africa to change course?

Ideal early childhood teacher?

In policy, teachers are persistently positioned as central to improving the quality of early childhood education and care (ECEC). They are frequently the targets for policy reform that proactively seeks to shape teaching priorities and practices. The constructions of teachers in policy shape notions of ideal professional identities, opening up spaces for certain identities and closing spaces for others. This critical discourse analysis of seven key ECEC policy texts assembles a range of discourses to identify and critically examine two prevalent and distinct 'ideal' professional identities for early childhood teachers: The Professional and The Kaiako.

Fostering inclusive green growth in China: Identifying the impact of the regional integration strategy of Yangtze River Economic Belt

Inclusive green growth has garnered significant attention from governments and international organizations worldwide. Utilizing data from 282 cities in China spanning from 2010 to 2020, this study employs the dual machine learning model and the chain mediated effect model to delve into the effects and internal mechanisms of the regional integration of Yangtze River Economic Belt on inclusive green growth. Our findings indicate that the regional integration of Yangtze River Economic Belt has a substantial influence on inclusive green growth, particularly in cities with a higher degree of marketization, non-industrial cities, and cities lacking natural resource advantages. Mechanistic analysis reveals that the regional integration of Yangtze River Economic Belt exerts its influence on inclusive green growth through three parallel development paths including enhancing urban innovation levels, fostering mass entrepreneurship, and promoting the advancement of digital financial inclusion. Furthermore, the chain mediated effect is supported. Additionally, the spatial spillover effect of target policy is observed. These findings offer empirical evidence regarding the impact of the regional integration of Yangtze River Economic Belt on inclusive green growth, and provide valuable insights for optimizing and enhancing inclusive green growth strategies in China and other emerging economies.

Health resilience and the global pandemic: The effect of social conditions on the COVID‐19 mortality rate

AbstractCan ‘health resilience’ explain international differences in COVID‐19 mortality? This paper aims to understand the significant diversity in mortality rates between countries in terms of their degree of preparedness for the crisis and the underlying health conditions of the population. We integrate COVID‐19 data from the first year of the pandemic with panel data from 2009 to 2017 for 188 countries around the world in order to investigate international variation in COVID‐19 mortality rates. Country‐level data on health, medical, social and policy variables are compared with COVID‐19 mortality rates, with further controls imposed to adjust for infection rate, population and health spending. The results show that prior health conditions, social deprivation and the demography of the country all have significant effects on the mortality rates associated with the virus. The evidence also suggests that countries with higher levels of health‐related policy targets demonstrated lower levels of mortality during the crisis. Finally, we confirm that social habits such as smoking, alcohol consumption and over‐eating create a highly vulnerable group of individuals who were exposed to a greater risk of mortality during the outbreak.

Cointegration Behavior and Diagnostic Stability of Philippine Monetary Policy Implementation During the Period From 1990 to 2022

The observations made in this study were used to evaluate the diagnostic stability of the Philippine Central Bank’s selected monetary policy targets, namely, the Gross Domestic Product and inflation, with money supply, credits, interest rates, and exchange rates, as independent variables, using the autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model analysis. The co-integrating behavior depicted that all p-values of less than the 5% significance level generated different behaviors. However, analysis of the Central Bank’s performance showed that there were no unit roots at all (p > .05) that signified a strong indication of cointegration behavior. The diagnostic stability of the Philippine monetary policy implementation was established over the period from 1990 to 2022. Further, money in circulation caused increases in domestic prices, interest rates, and inflationary pressure, and ultimately affected GDP (ppp). Understanding cointegration behavior is an imperative implication for policy makers to observe and take into consideration.

Mapping the mitigation context for sectoral decarbonisation

ABSTRACT The accelerating climate crisis demands action by governments, sectors, organisations and individuals. This research aims to inform sectoral approaches, which catalyse decarbonisation within one particular part of the global economy, but whose success is shaped by country-specific contexts. To appraise each country’s enabling environment for climate change mitigation in the tourism sector, data are drawn from the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Development Index for 2019 and 2021. Focusing on three central areas of tourism mitigation, namely public transport, green energy, and nature protection, a Mitigation Context Index is created by averaging normalised (1–7 scale) scores across six variables. The results reveal that some countries provide favourable conditions for tourism emissions reduction, whilst others might impede mitigation progress. Understanding the opportunities or constraints of tourism’s mitigation context can guide policy priorities, target setting and investment decisions. Where tourism is a significant part of the national economy, there is an important opportunity for sectoral leadership. Tourism could help unlock green investment and nudge the country towards more ambitious climate action. Whilst more work is required to fully capture tourism’s mitigation context, this note intends to trigger integrated thinking on how to optimise sectorial contributions within evolving climate governance arrangements.