Policy Scenarios Research Articles

Suitability of Site Selection for Mountain Railway Engineering Spoil Disposal Areas from a Multi-Scenario Perspective

The current approach to selecting sites for abandoned spoil areas primarily relies on qualitative methods, often overlooking the impact of policy factors on decision-making. Traditional single-site selection strategies may not be flexible enough to accommodate evolving external policy demands. Addressing this challenge is crucial for ensuring the site selection for abandoned spoil areas is both scientifically sound and policy-compliant. This research integrates various analytical methods, including principal component analysis, complex network theory, the CRITIC method, and the ordered weighted averaging method, to thoroughly evaluate the factors influencing site selection. Utilizing geographic information system (GIS) technology, the study simulates different policy scenarios, such as construction cost, social and ecological concerns, natural security, spatial accessibility, and a comprehensive balance approach. It specifically analyzes the suitability of the spoil site of a segment of the Chongqing ZW Railway under these policy conditions. Based on the actual policy situation in the local area, six potential suitable sites were screened with the help of field investigation. This study can offer a methodological framework and theoretical guidance for optimally locating mountain railway engineering waste disposal sites. In addition, the methodology presented in this study can be adapted to the development and change in policy scenarios.

Impacts of projected urban growth on simulated near-surface temperature in Mexico City Metropolitan Area: Implications for urban vulnerability

Urbanization impacts the surface temperature fields increasing the vulnerability of urban residents to heat exposure. Identifying vulnerable urban populations to extreme heat exposure is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies towards sustainability. We used an urban growth model (SLEUTH) to simulate emerging urban areas in Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) under a hypothetical land-use policy scenario projected to 2060 in which no restrictions were posed to urban growth. SLEUTH outputs were used in the numerical model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) to quantify expected changes in near-surface temperature within the MCMA. We calculated and mapped heat exposure as differences in average (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over the diurnal cycle between future and current land cover conditions. Population vulnerability to projected increases in heat exposure was determined using a set of socioeconomic indicators. SLEUTH simulations showed an urban area expansion of nearly 4,790 km2 by 2060. Overall, changes in Tmin were greater than changes observed for Tmax and Tmean. Tmean, Tmax and Tmin increases up to 0.6°C, 1.3°C and 2.6°C, respectively, were recorded for the MCMA with greatest temperature changes observed in the State of Mexico. Results suggested the presence of socioeconomic disparities in the projected spatial exposure of urban-induced heat in MCMA. We argue that our results could be used to inform and guide locally tailored actions aimed at reducing exposure and increasing population´s capacities to cope and adapt to future threats.

Carbon accounting methods for the system-wide evaluation of carbon capture, utilisation and storage: A case study in Mexico's Southeast Region

Existing assessments of climate mitigation technologies, like carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS), often rely on life cycle assessments (LCA), which are helpful for quantification but may not always be the most complete tools for decision-making. The novel contribution of this study is to provide the first application of a consequential carbon accounting approach, presented as a time-series analysis, to measure the system-wide change in emissions from CCUS linked to CO2-enhanced oil recovery. This method includes emissions from marginal oil production, a variable typically excluded in other LCA methods. The method was applied to a hypothetical CCUS project in Mexico to understand critical factors determining whether such an intervention can effectively contribute to emissions reduction in alignment with net-zero goals. Four intervention scenarios were assessed, comparing two distinct CO2 injection strategies in oil reservoirs (water alternating gas and continuous gas injection) and two energy policy scenarios (current and sustainability). The findings suggest that the energy grid's role in overall emissions is relatively minor, with only a ∼2% difference between the compared scenarios, in contrast, the injection strategy has a significant impact on emissions. Scenarios 1 and 3 report a total change in emissions of −28.39 and −29.87MtCO2e, and scenarios 2 and 4 account for −19.63 and −21.22MtCO2e, respectively. The results highlight the importance of conducting system-wide analysis and comparing different scenarios to identify the critical components that drive changes in emissions and, therefore, support decision-making and project planning.

Improving the effectiveness of financial education programs. A targeting approach

AbstractWe investigate whether targeting algorithms can improve the effectiveness of financial education programs by identifying ex‐ante the most appropriate recipients. To this end, we use micro‐data from around 3800 individuals who participated in a financial education campaign conducted in Italy in late 2021. First, we employ machine learning (ML) tools to devise a targeting rule that identifies individuals who should be primarily targeted by a financial education campaign based on easily observable characteristics. Second, we simulate a policy scenario, using a random sample of individuals who took part in the campaign but were not employed to devise the targeting rule. We find that pairing a financial education campaign with an ML‐based targeting rule leads to greater effectiveness. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of our findings, and the conditions that must be met for ML‐based targeting to be effectively implemented.

Assessing the decarbonization roadmap of a RoPax ferry

AbstractThe reduction of emissions from shipping is necessary to combat climate change. One viable option is to change the fuels utilized. In this study, we investigate the environmental and economic performance of marine diesel oil (MDO), liquified natural gas (LNG), liquified biogas (LBG), and a mixture of LNG and LBG. We study a real case of a roll-on/roll-off passenger ship (RoPax) in Finland. Life cycle thinking is applied to assess the environmental impact, covering emissions from well to propeller (raw material extraction, fuel production, transportation, storage, and combustion), while the economic implications are estimated through future fuel prices and carbon pricing from 2023 to 2050. The carbon pricing covers different carbon tax schemes, namely stated policies scenario (STEPS), sustainable development scenarios (SDS), and net-zero emissions (NZE). STEPS reflects the existing measures and policies under development; SDS pursues to meet the goal of Paris Agreement, while NZE aims to reach net zero. Adopting LNG would improve carbon dioxide emissions, but the overall climate change impact was not significantly lower than MDO. It is also found that the biggest environmental improvement can be obtained by switching to LBG, although future availability can be an issue. The economic assessment shows that LBG has the highest fuel price uncertainties, although its carbon cost will be the lowest. Alternatively, using LNG & LBG mixture can serve as a transition path to contain climate change while dealing with its price uncertainty and availability.

The scenario of Local Food Policies. Towards place-based food policies

The scenario of Local Food Policies. Towards place-based food policies

From conventional to smart: Farmers’ preferences under alternative policy scenarios

This study investigates the impact of ex-ante policy scenarios on conventional farmers' intentions to adopt smart farming applications and identifies influential factors. Through survey data collected from 117 conventional farmers, three scenarios (no support, cash support, credit support) were presented to determine their intention to adopt smart farming. The findings reveal that financial support significantly boosts farmers' intention to adopt these technologies. Additionally, farm income, knowledge, and inheritor positively influence adoption, while education and age hinder it. To promote the adoption of smart farming systems, we recommend providing educational programs to increase farmers' knowledge and offering financial benefits to offset the costs of purchasing and installing the systems. Our findings are relevant for developing countries, such as Türkiye, that are transitioning to smart farming and can inform policies that facilitate the adoption of smart farming systems.

Evaluation of straw and agricultural policy impacts on the sustainability of the straw-based bioeconomy with an agent-based model

The use of straw as feedstock for the bioeconomy constitutes an important opportunity to fulfill the societal demand for biobased products and reduce the externalities incurred in the utilization of non-waste resources and alternative waste management methods. However, the insufficient supply of raw material and high reliance on government support have constrained further expansion of the industry. Additionally, the evaluation of policies is hindered by the complexity of bioeconomy systems, where multiple entities generate patterns that are difficult to analyze with conventional tools. We developed an agent-based model based on the Social-Ecological Systems framework and mixed methods to analyze the effect of various straw and agricultural policy scenarios on farmers, straw operators, and industrial plants, and their subsequent impacts on the socioeconomic and environmental outcomes of the straw-based industry. The results indicate that the combined use of straw retention and straw collection methods achieves optimal outcomes for sustainability, and that further adoption of straw collection in the study area can be facilitated by policies targeted towards farmer awareness, efficiency of operations, and market demand. The analysis also shows that policy strategies have a considerable influence over the distribution of economic value among stakeholders. Finally, this study demonstrates the usefulness of this modeling approach for the analysis of bioeconomy systems with multiple stakeholders, policy measures, and sustainability goals. Overall, these finding illustrate the implications of different policy and straw management approaches for the straw-based industry, and provide a useful guideline for the modeling of circular bioeconomy systems in China and elsewhere.

Policies and incentives for promotion of pulses production and consumption: A Review

The paper delves into the current state of pulses in India, examining technological advancements, production trends, costs and returns, extent of subsidies and other policies related to pulses, competitiveness, and input utilization. It also assesses non-market benefits, such as nitrogen fixation, and suggests incorporating them into incentives for pulses production and consumption. Additionally, the paper explores the nutritional contributions of pulses and their potential distribution through government schemes to aid the impoverished. Policy scenarios, including the role of Minimum Support Price and procurement, are scrutinized for their historical impact on pulse production. The paper evaluates the demand-supply gap and advocates for improved trade policies. Ultimately, it recommends incentive policies based on the ecological contributions of pulses, use of advanced statistical methods for advanced production estimations to guide informed decisions by traders and importers, and long-term government contracts for pulses import/export to stabilize domestic prices. The goal is to ensure affordability for consumers and encourage farmers’ participation in export markets, especially for crops like chickpea.

Consumer demand and the economy-wide costs of regulation: Modeling households with empirically estimated flexible functional forms

This paper estimates flexible demand systems for heterogeneous households in the United States and links the estimated parameters with an economy-wide model to assess their relative contributions to the social cost of regulation. We estimate elasticities for several final demand categories as well as labor-leisure elasticities that are important for calibrating the labor-leisure choice in the economy-wide model and find that estimated elasticities are relatively similar across regions but vary meaningfully by income. Using the estimated elasticities, we explore the implications of both the functional form and its parameterization in a simplified computable general equilibrium model for the social and distributional costs of illustrative policy scenarios. Model variants with less flexible consumer demand systems overestimate social costs across our entire range of scenarios. Furthermore, we find that parameterizing the model with elasticities that vary with household income is important for adequately characterizing the distributional implications of a policy.

Subsidies or green taxes? Evaluating the distributional effects of housing renovation policies among Dutch households

Despite persistent housing affordability issues, energy policy and housing renovation are usually investigated separately from housing costs other than energy. Researchers have examined the financial viability of renovation attending to building conditions and the socio-economic characteristics of their occupants. However, the distributional impacts of renovation incentives and the potential of fiscal policy to redistribute housing costs remain understudied. Dutch fiscal policy, favouring homeownership, offers a relevant context to evaluate how property taxation can boost renovation rates. The novelty of this paper resides in investigating the impact of two policies, the current direct subsidy and a proposal for a green tax, on both the financial viability of renovation and the subsequent distribution of housing costs. The proposed green tax combines energy efficiency and taxation of property revenue. We employ a model considering marginal costs of housing renovation, obtained from a government dataset, and marginal benefits, drawn from a hedonic regression. We assess the distributional impacts of different policy scenarios by examining changes in user costs across income deciles. Our findings indicate that existing renovation subsidies exacerbate the regressive distributional impacts resulting from the current housing taxation system in the Netherlands. Introducing energy-efficiency-linked property taxation can make homeownership fiscality less regressive while incentivising housing renovation. Ultimately, this study highlights the importance of incorporating housing affordability as a fundamental element in renovation policies to balance environmental and distributional objectives.

Populism and Political Parties in Asia: A Comparison of Aam Admi Party (AAP) in India and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan

Populism is one of the most popular techniques used by Asian political parties. Political parties use this tactic through socio-political movements not only for the larger good of society but also for their own narrow goals. This article investigates two separate political parties from India and Japan. Populist policies have both beneficial and harmful effects on politics. The given promises often failed to address the grievances of the voters. A significant civil society movement propelled the Aam Admi Party (AAP) to political status. It began as a non-political entity and evolved into a political one. Following the formation of AAP, the issue of civil society as a non-political entity arose. The AAP is a regional party that holds power in two Indian states, focusing its populist policies on local issues. As a national party, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) is comparatively old and addresses pertinent national issues, like national security. The quality of politics and socio-economic dynamics of the two countries are different. This paper argues that populism as a tool cannot always be beneficial for the political culture of a country. The wide gap between the promises and implementation often creates discontent among the voters. This paper will attempt the delineate the different scenarios of the populist policies of the AAP of India and the LDP of Japan using the content analysis method.

Effectiveness evaluation of China's water resource tax reform pilot and path optimization from the perspective of policy field.

The water resource tax reform played an important role in promoting sustainable development in China. Subsequent to the seven-year reform, the effectiveness evaluation of the policy in each pilot area and the exploration of the optimization path directly affected the promotion of water resource tax policy and the improvement of water use efficiency. Therefore, the theoretical framework of the water resource tax policy field was constructed to examine the mechanism of the three subsystems of policy scenario, policy orientation, and policy effect; fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was then used to evaluate and quantitatively compare the policy implementation effect and policy path in each pilot area, with emphasis put on three policy orientations, i.e., the decision and decomposition effect of policy goals, the selection and im plementation effect of policy tools, and the policy supervision and security effect. As shown by the research results: ① the water resource tax reform had effectively improved the efficiency of water resource utilization in the pilot areas; ② three pilot models of water resource tax policy had been extracted, namely the policy goal and tool-driven model centering on a single dimension of the policy field, the implementation-supervision dual drive model emphasizing the supervision and security effect of the policy, and the three-dimensional policy orientation linkage model that focused on the synergistic effect of the policy field; ③ strong heterogeneity existed in water resource tax policy implementation paths and effects in each pilot area. Accordingly, regional heterogeneity could be considered in the process of reform to construct institutionalized, precise, and differentiated reform implementation methods from the perspective of the policy field.

СЦЕНАРІЇ ФОРМУВАННЯ РЕЗЕРВІВ ПІДВИЩЕННЯ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ СФЕРИ ПОСЛУГ З ОРІЄНТАЦІЄЮ НА ІННОВАЦІЙНИЙ РОЗВИТОК

The article notes the priority tasks and goals of enterprises in the service sector, the solution of which requires the use of progressive approaches, and the formation of reserves is attributed to them. It is emphasized that the formation of reserves is the main element of ensuring the economic efficiency of entrepreneurial activity, and it is especially important when the strengthening of innovative development is expected. Depending on the industry, the scenarios for the formation of enterprise reserves may differ and, accordingly, require a thorough theoretical-methodical and scientific-applied justification. The absence of a universal approach to the formation of reserves for increasing the economic efficiency of enterprises in the service sector, which would simultaneously focus on the development of innovative activities, was revealed. It is important for enterprises in the service sector to master universal approaches to the formation of reserves, which allow both to ensure economic efficiency, innovative development, and to strengthen the readiness to overcome existential challenges and threats. It is appropriate to follow a structural approach, according to which the allocation of reserves will take place according to clear criteria, according to the principles of balance and rationality. It is suggested that the formation of reserves for increasing the economic efficiency of enterprises in the service sector with an orientation towards innovative development should be carried out according to price and marketing policy scenarios. The tools of price policy include sales, lending, discounting, break-even, high and target prices, etc. Instead, in the marketing policy, priority is given to tools such as diversification of services, brand management, benchmarking, digitalization, technological cooperation, etc.

A system dynamics approach to management of water resources in Qatar

Rapid global population growth and extensive urbanization threaten water sustainability, hindering sustainable development. This issue is particularly acute in arid regions such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where the scarce natural water resources are overexploited. Effective water resource management (WRM) is pivotal in overcoming this challenge. This holistic study presents an innovative approach to address water sustainability at a national scale by developing a WRM decision support system (DSS) leveraging system dynamics modeling (SDM). Employing a unique scenario design framework developed in this study, the DSS simulates Qatar's water resource system behavior for 2021 to 2070 according to nine clustered policy scenarios presenting different degrees of sustainability designed accounting for changes in physical, environmental, and socioeconomic patterns. Our results reveal that the “business-as-usual” (BAU) WRM policy can balance water supply and demand for only 32 years. According to the best policy scenario, the sustainability of the water supply could be ensured for up to 50 years by increasing the water supply by 10 % and reducing consumption by 10 %. Additionally, to aid policymakers in fostering water resource sustainability, groundwater conservation strategies are proposed using the unique scenario design framework by limiting the yield to the safe abstraction level and emphasizing the significance of preserving non-renewable groundwater resources as a “backstop” resource for the country. While marking the first holistic research study in Qatar by utilizing the SDM approach to tackle national-scale WRM challenges, the established WRM DSS model is equally applicable to other GCC countries and similar arid regions.

Cross-border electricity transfers in the case of differentiated renewable energy sources: A simulation analysis for Germany and Spain

Renewable electricity plays an increasingly important role in the effort to reduce CO2 emissions in the electricity sector. One of the major challenges that must be addressed is the fluctuating supply of renewable electricity. We explore the impact of cross-border electricity transfers on both the security of electricity supply and renewable electricity expansion. We focus on Spain and Germany due to the relative abundance of their country-specific renewable electricity sources (solar for Spain and wind for Germany). We develop an electricity market model that allows for cross-border electricity transfers by connecting country-specific electricity markets. We apply six policy scenarios aiming towards securing the electricity supply and renewable electricity expansion. Our simulation results show that cross-border electricity transfers postpone supply shortages in both countries. These shortages occur as a result of an increasing amount of low-marginal-cost renewable electricity, which, in turn, leads to a decrease in the electricity price, so that power plants cannot operate profitably. However, the postponement of these supply shortages is primarily achieved through an excess supply of German conventional power plants that are utilised to meet excess demand in Spain. Although this serves to reduce required government subsidies, it also leads to an increase in CO2 emissions.

Analysis of the environmental and economic performance of common agricultural policy eco-schemes in soil organic carbon sequestration

The Andalusian olive grove in South Spain is employed as a case study to assess the environmental and economic effects of the green architecture (eco-schemes) of the Common Agricultural Policy in relation to low carbon agriculture under different soil management policy scenarios to support more efficient agri-environmental policy making. To do so, we adopted a multidisciplinary approach in which we used: (i) an integrated modelling framework comprising geographic information systems (GIS); (ii) the RothC model; and (iii) a cost-benefit analysis. Results show that eco-schemes provide a significant increase of soil organic carbon (SOC) relative to cross-compliance. Practices involving vegetation covers are more efficient than using pruning residues as mulching. SOC accumulation increases rapidly in the first five-ten years to slow down afterwards. The cost-benefit ratios of eco-schemes policy implementation are higher than one when only SOC is considered. Nonetheless, the inclusion of additional co-benefits has the potential to invert this scenario and enhance policy efficacy. Various insights on optimizing the design and application of eco-scheme efficiency are provided.

Can a health warning label diminish the persuasive effects of health-oriented nutrition advertising on ready-to-drink alcohol product packaging? A randomized experiment.

A health warning label (HWL) cautioning about the link between alcohol and cancer may be able to communicate alcohol risks to consumers and potentially counter health-oriented nutrition advertising on ready-to-drink alcoholic beverages. This study aimed to examine the independent and combined effects of nutrient content claims (e.g. 0g sugar) and a HWL on perceived product characteristics and intentions to consume, and whether these effects differed by gender and age. A between-subjects randomized experiment. Participants were randomized to view one of six experimental label conditions: nutrient content claims plus nutrition declaration (NCC + ND), ND only, NCC + ND + HWL, ND + HWL, HWL only and no NCC, ND or HWL, all on a ready-to-drink (RTD) vodka-based soda container. Alcohol consumers (n = 5063; 52% women) in Canada aged 18-64 recruited through a national online panel. Participants completed ratings of perceived product characteristics, perceived product health risks, and intentions to try, buy, binge and drink the product. Compared with the reference condition NCC + ND (current policy scenario in Canada), the other five experimental label conditions were associated with lower ratings for perceiving the product as healthy. All experimental conditions with a HWL were associated with lower product appeal, higher risk perceptions and reduced intentions to try, buy and binge. The experimental condition with a HWL only was associated with intentions to consume fewer cans in the next 7days (β = -0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.37,-0.08) versus the reference. Few interactions were observed, suggesting that label effects on outcomes were similar by gender and age. Health warning labels on alcohol packaging appear to be associated with lower product appeal, higher perceived health risks and reduced consumption intentions, even in the presence of nutrient content claims.

The multiple effects of farmland infrastructure investment on agrifood systems in China—an interdisciplinary model analysis

PurposeAs one of its major strategies, China has made a new plan to further expand High Standard Farmland (HSF) to all permanent basic farmland (80% of total farmland) for grain security over the next decade. Yet, what will be the impact of farmland infrastructure investment on agrifood systems? The paper aims to systematically evaluate the multiple effects (food security, economy, nutrition and environment) of expanding HSF construction under the context of the “Big Food vision” using an interdisciplinary model.Design/methodology/approachAn interdisciplinary model – AgriFood Systems Model, which links the China CGE model to diet and carbon emission modules, is applied to assess the multiple effects of HSF construction on agrifood systems, such as food security and economic development, residents’ diet quality and carbon emissions. Several policy scenarios are designed to capture these effects of the past HSF investment based on counterfactual analysis and compare the effects of HSF future investment at the national level under the conditions of different land use policies – restricting to grain crops or allowing diversification (like vegetables, and fruit).FindingsThe investments in HSF offer a promising solution for addressing the challenges of food and nutrition security, economic development and environmental sustainability. Without HSF construction, grain production and self-sufficiency would decline significantly, while the agricultural and agrifood systems’ GDP would decrease. The future investment in the HSF construction will further increase both grain production and GDP, improve dietary quality and reduce carbon emissions. Compared with the policy of limiting HSF to planting grains, diversified planting can provide a more profitable economic return, improve dietary quality and reduce carbon emissions.Originality/valueThis study contributes to better informing the impact of land infrastructure expanding investment on the agrifood systems from multiple dimensions based on an interdisciplinary model. We suggest that the government consider applying diversified planting in the future HSF investment to meet nutritional and health demands, increase household income and reduce carbon emissions.

Azerbaijan: pathways for decarbonization in a global context

ABSTRACT As economies around the world are increasing their mitigation ambitions, Azerbaijan’s lingering dependency on fossil fuel exports threatens its medium – and long-term economic development prospects. Global decarbonization is expected to directly impact the country’s resource rents through lower fossil fuel demand and prices. In this regard, it is crucial to understand the potential implications of the global mitigation efforts on the economy of Azerbaijan and evaluate the domestic mitigation policies. To address this gap in the literature, we use a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model and explore a set of forward-looking climate policy scenarios till 2060. Our results suggest that while being adversely impacted by decarbonization efforts in countries around the world, it is in Azerbaijan’s self-interest to implement domestic mitigation policies. With proper sequencing and design of such policies, including a combination of fossil-fuel subsidies reform, the introduction of carbon prices post-2030 and recycling of the additionally collected revenue via reduced factor taxes, the country could achieve NDC targets, boost economic growth and increase economic diversification. More ambitious mitigation efforts, consistent with reaching net-zero emissions by 2060 would result in substantial health co-benefits from improved air quality, which could almost fully outweigh the direct economic costs of such mitigation.