Policy Messages Research Articles

Non‐stun slaughter gets the nation talking

Hitting the front page of The Times with a key policy message is an achievement for any organisation, and for the BVA it led to significant exposure on the issue of non‐stun slaughter, writes the Association's head of media, Sally Burnell.

Can Cameron Capture Women's Votes? The Gendered Impediments to a Conservative Majority in 2015

Women have traditionally been more likely to vote Conservative than Labour, but the attraction of younger women voters to New Labour contributed to New Labour's winning electoral strategy in 1997 and 2001. Subsequently, the Conservative Party leadership intensified efforts to attract women voters through recruiting more women MPs and in its policy messages and proposals and in 2005 and 2010 the gender gap was largely neutralised. However, in the contestation for women's votes at the next election we argue Conservative strategies are hampered by weaknesses in their symbolic, descriptive and substantive representation of women and they are unlikely to restore the Party's historical dominance with women voters with potentially serious consequences for the likelihood of a Conservative majority.

Donors, Aid and Taxation in Developing Countries: An Overview

We are pleased to present the fourth in our new publication series, ICTD Research in Brief -- two-page summaries of our working papers edited to capture the main policy messages and aimed at policy makers, tax administrators, fellow researchers and anyone else who is big on interest and short on time. We hope you enjoy it. There is growing interest among development policymakers in taxation, both as a crucial source of revenue for development and because taxation is central to economic growth, redistribution and broader state-building and governance goals. This paper explores the direct impact of donor supported tax reform efforts; the indirect impact of aid and related donor policies on domestic tax effort; the potentially perverse effects of tax-related conditionality; and the impact of broader donor policies including global tax arrangements. It makes detailed recommendations about future donor support for tax reform.

ARE CARIBBEAN GOVERNMENTS OVER BORROWING?

ABSTRACT This study determines if, and the extent to which, Caribbean governments are over borrowing using analytical tools developed by Blanchard (1983) and the International Monetary Fund (2003). The empirical findings indicate that over borrowing ratios are lower in commodity exporting countries of Suriname, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and Belize than in tourism-intensive economies. The highest level of calculated over borrowing was observed in Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, and Barbados (after the period of 2009). Over borrowing ratios in Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines were higher post 2009 relative to earlier periods. The salient policy message of this study is that it is prudent for countries to pursue ex-ante policies that impel more efficient borrowing in normal times that contribute to entrenching debt sustainability, as opposed to ex-post adjustment policies to reduce debt after a crisis point has been reached. Keywords Optimal Debt, Over Borrowing, Caribbean

Fiscal Composition and Aid Effectiveness: A Political Economy Model

Summary In the long run tax effort, we argue, determines the effectiveness of aid, and this relationship operates simultaneously with the negative link in the opposite direction observed by Brautigam and Knack (2004) and others. Tax effort and the ability of the state to diversify its taxation structure, we find, are significantly linked to growth and poverty indicators. The key message for policy is that a broadening of the tax structure in low-income countries is crucial in order to enable those countries to escape from the “weak-state–low-tax trap,” and to make aid effective.

Regional resilience: opportunities, challenges and policy messages from Western North Carolina

This paper explores resiliency theory by assessing the ability of communities to adapt and recover economically and socially after a natural disaster. Community resiliency describes the capacity of finding a new equilibrium that is strengthened from change. Resilience can be seen as a strategy to facilitate recovery after a trauma and can be used as a preventative measure to avoid undesired outcomes. Through a qualitative assessment of the HandMade in America programme in three rural communities in Western North Carolina, this paper draws attention to the facilitation of community capital, resulting in social and political networks that allowed these towns to rely on increases in tourism to rebound from the 2004 hurricanes season.

Farmers’ adaptive practices for drought risk reduction in the northwest region of Bangladesh

Being an agrarian region, the northwest part of Bangladesh frequently experiences recurrent droughts over the last decade. To cope with this insidious disaster, the farmers in this region practice various adaptation measures through their own efforts with institutional support. But these efforts and support are not sufficient for farmers to survive droughts. In this light, this study assesses the adaptive capacity of farmers along with institutions to develop suitable drought adaptation policy in the context of this region. The drought adaptive practices developed in this study are mainly adopted from the unique approach called socioeconomic, institutional and physical. Results reveal that establishment of mango orchard, vegetable gardening and community health care service would be helpful in enhancing drought resilience at community level. Moreover, an important policy message from this study suggests that validation of these practices through government offices, research institutes and other relevant organizations can help to develop an appropriate drought adaptation policy for this region. Similarly, by performing these practices from national to local level, farmers as well as communities in this region will be able to effectively sustain their livelihoods against droughts.

Bank Size and Systemic Risk

The proposed SDN documents the evolution of bank size and activities over the past 20 years. It discusses whether this evolution can be explained by economies of scale or “too big to fail” subsidies. The paper then presents evidence on the extent to which bank size and market-based activities contribute to systemic risk. The paper concludes with policy messages in the area of capital regulation and activity restrictions to reduce the systemic risk posed by large banks. The analysis of the paper complements earlier Fund work, including SDN 13/04 and the recent GFSR chapter on “too big to fail” subsidies, and its policy message is in line with this earlier work.

Vocational Skills Development for Youths in the Informal Sector of the Economy in Africa

It is generally recognised that the development of relevant skills is an important instrument for improving productivity and working conditions, and the promotion of decent work in the informal economy, which represents the major employer in Africa. The increasing recognition that higher technical and vocational skills are crucial in enhancing competitiveness and contributing to social inclusion, decent employment, and poverty reduction has been a strong incentive for reform. African countries are therefore working towards improving the quality and skills levels of their labour forces. This is being facilitated through the Technical and Vocational Training Institutes. Education and skills can open doors to economically and socially rewarding jobs and can help the development of small informal-sector businesses, allow the re-insertion of displaced workers and support the transition from school to work for school drop-outs and graduates. Ultimately, developing job-related competencies among the poor, the youth and the vulnerable is recognised as crucial to progress in economic development and reducing poverty. The challenge is now to scale-up on the basis of successful pilot programmes. The number of enterprises capable of offering work-place training opportunities is limited, while many training institutions have poor delivery capacity and commonly lack funding. In turn, training programmes do not produce skilled graduates because training is of poor quality and the equipment obsolete. Many youths cannot access formal TVET, and few countries have training policies which emphasise skills development in the informal sector. Other obstacles include the low prestige of formal TVET in the eyes of the general public and parents who consider it to be an option suitable only for pupils who perform poorly in general education. This paper aims at providing a picture of technical and vocational skills development in African countries, exploring challenges and bottlenecks, highlighting good practices, and identifying priorities for further research. Specifically, the objectives will be to (a) update knowledge about the status of technical - vocational education and training in the African region, (b) explore issues and recent developments, and (c) distil a set of lessons and policy messages to guide skills development in the region. The focus of the analysis will be on the economics of skills development. Provision of financing of TVET will be examined through the lens of economic efficiency, balanced with attention to social equity.

Travellers’ Satisfaction with Railway Transport: A Bayesian Network Approach

Survey data are often employed as a tool to support planners in defining and reviewing their intervention programs and policies. In the current literature, a broad range of studies have examined the determinants and components of consumers’ satisfaction. Most of these studies have exploited statistical models, such as probit or logit, to determine the categorical dependent variables. Less attention has been paid to the investigation of the structural properties of the data by testing alternative methods and procedures. The present work performs such an analysis using data from a survey on consumer satisfaction from railway transport in 14 EU countries. The data were collected in a large survey (more than 17,000 observations) conducted on behalf of the European Commission. By applying both ordered logistic regression and Bayesian Network (BN) analysis, the research question addressed by this paper is twofold. First of all, the performance of the two methodologies, defined in terms of their predictive capability, is assessed. Secondly, the main policy implications conveyed by the two models are compared. According to the results, BN analysis provides better predictions of the outcomes of customers’ satisfaction with railway transport. Moreover, the choice of the statistical methodology is a relevant issue for policy-making, since the policy messages conveyed by the two models differ significantly.

The Impact of Land Property Rights Interventions on Investment and Agricultural Productivity in Developing Countries: a Systematic Review

We conducted a systematic review on the effects of land tenure recognition interventions on agricultural productivity, income, investment and other relevant outcomes. We synthesise findings from 20 quantitative studies and nine qualitative studies that passed a methodological screening. The results indicate substantial productivity and income gains from land tenure recognition, although gains differ markedly by region. We find that these effects may operate through gains in perceived tenure security and investment; we find no evidence for a credit mechanism. The qualitative synthesis highlights potential adverse effects. A conclusion emphasises the need for further research on inter-regional differences and on the role of customary tenure arrangements.

Modelling the redirection of technical change: The pitfalls of incorporeal visions of the economy

This paper discusses attempts to represent the role of R&D in the transition towards a low carbon economy through models with no meaningful granularity to inform the studied phenomenon. By means of a critical analysis of (Acemoglu et al., 2012), we show that the advantage of these models, their analytical tractability, does not make up for their disadvantages, lack of control over policy implications and questionable numerical results. On the one hand, a comprehensive analysis of the results of Acemoglu et al. (2012) shows that even research subsidies do not pave the way for ambitious climate policies with low transitory costs, thus contradicting their policy message. On the other hand, critical parameters such as the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty technologies, carbon sinks, or the productivity of researchers are not in accordance with existing scientific knowledge. We show that using more realistic parameters leads to even more pessimistic conclusions and that their model provides no leeway for overcoming them. We suggest that a too highly aggregated model can only describe an incorporeal economy and comes to a deadlock. We propose a more promising route for economic research in order to break this deadlock.

Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? Assessing How Timing and Repetition of Scandal Information Affects Candidate Evaluations

Scholars and political consultants alike know that during a campaign even the hint of a scandal has the potential to distract from a candidate's policy messages—or even worse—can have dire consequences on Election Day. But does it matter whether the scandal breaks early as opposed to late in the campaign? And how do citizens respond when the scandal drags on for weeks? This study represents the first effort to shed light on these temporal dynamics. Results reveal that timing affects the immediate impact of scandal information, the rate at which those initial effects decay, and candidate evaluations offered at the campaign's conclusion. Additionally, I develop two competing hypotheses regarding how citizens may process scandal information when it is repeated throughout a campaign. Empirical tests suggest that voters eventually reach a saturation threshold after which additional repetition of scandal information has negligible effects on evaluations unless new details are a prominent feature of ongoing coverage, in which case repetition can extend the negative effects of scandal.

Terms of trade, capital accumulation and the macro-economy in a developing country: a theoretical analysis

This paper attempts to explain the terms of trade adjustment and the process of capital accumulation in a monetary model of sectoral interlinkage under rational expectation. The paper utilises a very standard dual economy framework in which industry and agriculture are two distinct sectors of production. Agriculture production is supply constrained. This may arise due to fixed endowment of land, weather condition etc. On the other hand, employment and output in the industrial sector are determined on the basis of profit maximisation in the presence of wage indexation. The asset structure of the economy includes the stock of primary commodities as one form of asset holding. Since the stock of agricultural commodities is one of the financial assets, its demand is subject to speculation which may entail fluctuating agricultural prices. Many factors have effects on fluctuating agricultural prices. These include monetary shock, parametric changes in agricultural production, changes in government expenditure etc. In this paper we discuss the comparative static effects of parametric changes of these factors. The paper shows that the short run and long run effects of any particular shock are quite different, not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively. Accordingly, the policy message of the paper is that the short run response may not be a reliable guide to the design of policy.

Education Stakeholders' Translation and Sense-Making of Accountability Policies

Scholars of education policy have consistently found that the capacity, beliefs, and values of local actors affect the relative success or failure of policy implementation. This article examines stakeholders' perceptions of education policy in South Carolina to consider the relationship between interpretations of education policy and attitudes of advocacy. Findings include that not only is the education system failing children, but it also sets up stakeholders, who care about education, to fail. The authors conclude that state-level education policy implementation plays an increasingly important role in shaping the message of education policy and ensuring the understandability of policy messages.

Structural Funding and Bank Failures

This paper investigates bank structural funding vis-a-vis bank failures. An empirical analysis is conducted on the defaults of commercial banks occurred in the United States between 2007 and 2009. The results highlight that structural funding position indeed plays a significant role in explaining the probability of bank defaults. A balanced funding position, with more deposits and a lower loans-deposits gap to be filled with wholesale funding, positively contributes to the resilience of the banks. Not all deposits are, however, the same: within deposit funding, the higher the reliance on the less-stable components the more likely a bank is to face distress. Results are robust to the sampling and modelling choices as well as to the variable specification used. While the empirical analysis focuses on the US and the loan-to-deposit ratio, the findings can be easily generalized to any banking system, and the relevant policy messages can be extended to the banking stability impacts of the Basel III structural funding regulation.

Taxation and Development: What Have We Learned from Fifty Years of Research?

We are pleased to present the first in our new publication series, ICTD Research in Brief - two-page summaries of our working papers edited to capture the main policy messages and aimed at policy makers, tax administrators, fellow researchers and anyone else who is big on interest and short on time. We hope you enjoy it. This paper contributes to the broader ICTD research objective of gaining a better understanding of how to improve tax policy and administration across a range of diverse developing country settings. It offers reflections on the interplay between tax research and actual policy over the last fifty years in order to throw light on the processes of tax reform, and to offer insights into how research could become more relevant and effective in shaping tax policy to support development.

2013 Low-Income Countries Global Risks and Vulnerabilities Report

An assessment of vulnerabilities and risks in LICs remains important both for LICs themselves and for the international community. There are currently 74 LICs, eligible for concessional financing from the Fund. This group of countries has a total population of about 1.3 billion, with an average per capita income of around $850. They typically face the steepest challenges in meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and are increasingly the focus of global development assistance to assist them in this endeavor. This report serves several purposes. It provides a cross-cutting analysis of the economic vulnerabilities of LICs, yielding some general policy conclusions and messages aimed at strengthening their resilience to external shocks. It delivers a richer coverage of developments in LICs than is typically contained in the major IMF multilateral surveillance reports, where analysis is focused primarily on developments in the advanced and emerging market economies. The report serves as an effective outreach tool to country authorities and the wider public. Finally, it provides useful information to other international financial institutions (IFIs) and donors that provide financial resources to LICs on the potential financing needs of these countries under varying global scenarios.

Designing and implementing payments for ecosystem services programs: Lessons learned from China's cropland restoration experience

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have attracted broad international attention as a novel approach of using economic incentives to address the loss of valuable ecosystem services. However, there has been inadequate work investigating the basic question of how to design and execute a PES program, and the limited inquiries have rarely been pursued in the diagnostic framework for studying social–ecological systems (SES). This paper aims to fill these critical knowledge gaps. We first introduce the SES framework into the context of PES in general and ecological restoration in particular and then highlight the progress and challenges of China's large initiative of converting degraded cropland. Next, we deliberate the essential lessons that can be learned from China, as reflected in the multi-faceted, complex processes of interactions and outcomes of the initiative from the ecological, socioeconomic, and institutional perspectives. We hope that these efforts will convey some important and timely policy messages, which will contribute to advancing the science and practice of PES-based ecological restoration and nature conservation.

Understanding Public Sector Ethics: Beyond Agency Theory in Canada's Sponsorship Scandal

ABSTRACT Public sector ethics is a topic of ongoing concern in developed democracies. The most popular theoretical approach to this issue is found in principal–agent theory literature. This approach assumes that public sector organizations are populated by principals and agents, each of whom pursue their own self-interest, with agents having a persistent informational advantage. A second approach to ethical conflicts focuses on cognitive processes. According to cognitive theory, all decision makers are vulnerable to “ethical numbing,” particularly in organizational settings that condone the substitution of personal agendas for organizational goals. We argue that Canada's sponsorship scandal has been interpreted almost exclusively from a principal–agent perspective, with subsequent reforms firmly based on introducing new rules to oblige agents to advance the interests of principals. While more faithful adherence to established rules by agents would have avoided a scandal, such adherence is unlikely to be achieved through incentives, monitoring, and penalties as suggested by principal–agent theory. The policy message contained in and implied by the cognitive framework suggests that the focus must be on creating an organizational learning environment that discourages responsible public officials from reframing decision situations in a manner that allows them to become morally disengaged.