China Policy Research Articles

Mid-term electricity demand forecasting using improved multi-mode reconstruction and particle swarm-enhanced support vector regression

Balancing electricity supply and demand is crucial for China's energy transition and the stability of its electricity market. Accurate prediction of mid-term electricity demand plays a vital role in mitigating supply-demand imbalances, enabling policymakers and power plants to make informed decisions. This study proposes a novel hybrid model, EEMD-SE-PSO-SVR, to forecast mid-term electricity demand in China. The model integrates ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with sample entropy (SE) for data preprocessing, particle swarm optimization (PSO) for parameter optimization, and support vector regression (SVR) for prediction. Our findings demonstrate that the EEMD-SE-PSO-SVR model outperforms traditional benchmark models, achieving a 54.49 % reduction in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) compared to the SVR model. The model's performance is significantly enhanced by EEMD-SE, which effectively addresses the non-stationarity of electricity demand data. Moreover, the analysis highlights the strong influence of economic factors, followed by the seasonal factors and energy structure, underscoring their importance in accurately forecasting electricity demand. These findings contribute valuable insights for improving the accuracy of mid-term electricity demand forecasts and support the development of carbon-neutral and peak-carbon policies in China.

Accelerated depreciation of fixed assets and green transformation of enterprises

Facilitating the green transformation of enterprises is a crucial research topic. Tax policy is a key tool for governments to influence enterprise development, with a significant impact on their innovation behavior. We establish a staggered DID model based on the relevant data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2021, finding that the policy can promote green transformation of enterprises though optimized finance, innovation driven, and responsibility implementation. We also explore the policy's heterogeneous impact in three dimensions: time, space, and corporate attributes. Based on the above findings, suggestions are provided for further improving the policy in China.

Exploring Integrated Ocean Management Policy in China: Evolution, Challenges, and Prospects

Integrated ocean management (IOM) aligns with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and serves as a crucial strategy for promoting the enduring health of marine ecosystems and the sustainable utilization of marine resources. An analysis of the evolution of China’s integrated ocean management policy (IOMP) is crucial for providing valuable guidance in achieving sustainable growth in marine management and the marine economy for both China and other coastal nations worldwide. This paper studies the evolution characteristics, challenges, and prospects of IOMP in China since 1978 using content analysis. The findings indicate that the evolution of IOMP can be categorized into four stages: the germination period (1978–1998), the construction period (1999–2009), the systematization period (2010–2017), and the strategization period (2018–present), based on the state of international marine management. The IOMP has transitioned over time from its initial emphasis on resource development during the germination period to a strategization period that prioritizes the full development of all parts of the system. However, the ultimate goal has consistently been to achieve harmonious coexistence between people and the sea. China’s IOMP has experienced a progressive development; nevertheless, it continues to encounter obstacles such as the pressing requirement to revise sea-related policies and the absence of policy alignment. The objective of this paper is to explore the evolution, challenges, and prospects of China’s IOMP to better improve the land–sea coordination policy, strengthen international judicial cooperation. and provide effective policy reference for other maritime countries.

How can the recycling of power batteries for EVs be promoted in China? A multiparty cooperative game analysis

While electric vehicles (EVs) are developing at a high speed in China, the power battery market is facing a decommissioning peak. The problem is that the recycling situation of domestic power batteries is not ideal, partly due to neglect by consumers. By considering the recycling system, mode, and policy of China’s EV power batteries, we construct a tripartite evolutionary game model of the government, consumers and EV manufacturers; analyse the stable strategy adjustment mechanisms of tripartite participation in this recycling cooperation game; and simulate the tripartite evolutionary game. The results show that when the initial willingness of the government, consumers and EV manufacturers to recycle power batteries is not strong, the government takes the lead, driving EV manufacturers and consumers to participate in power battery recycling. When the government, consumers and EV manufacturers have medium or high levels of initial willingness, the government evolves and chooses a nonregulation strategy. In addition, by simulating the impact of changes in consumer-related influencing factors on this tripartite evolutionary game, we find that subsidies for recycling power batteries are a key factor affecting consumers’ strategy choices and that boosting recycling compensation for consumers can improve their enthusiasm to participate in such recycling. Therefore, to improve the recycling of power batteries for EVs, in terms of both efficiency and percentage of deployment, the Chinese government should strengthen public education on power battery recycling, further integrate informal recycling channels, and balance the distribution of profits among consumers for recycling compensation.

The Macroeconomic Policies of China and the United States in Dealing with Economic Shock Based on the IS-LM Model Taking the Financial Crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 in 2020 as Examples

The Macroeconomic Policies of China and the United States in Dealing with Economic Shock Based on the IS-LM Model Taking the Financial Crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 in 2020 as Examples

Human Capital, Life Satisfaction, and the Floating Population’s Urban Settlement Intention in Cities—A Case Study of Six Cities in the Pearl River Delta

The urban settlement intention of the floating population and its influencing factors have received widespread attention, but there is less literature on the relationship between human capital, life satisfaction, and the urban settlement intention of the floating population. Employing 2146 questionnaire data from the Pearl River Delta’s floating population, this study establishes measurement indicators for human capital and life satisfaction, constructs a structural equation model, and examines the influence of human capital on life satisfaction, as well as their collective impact on the floating population’s urban settlement intentions. The findings reveal that human capital influences multiple facets of the floating population’s life satisfaction, which subsequently shapes its desire to settle. Considering individual life satisfaction, the economic well-being and social security contentment of the floating population exert a notable impact on its urban settlement intentions, whereas satisfaction with emotional life and public service facilities appears to have a less pronounced effect. Further investigation into how varying levels of human capital modulate the influence of life satisfaction on urban settlement intentions, alongside the transition from fundamental economic security to psychological needs (about life satisfaction), holds substantial referential value for research on population migration and the development of citizenship policies in China.

Learners’ motivation caught between the interplay of policy and practice: a case study of an EMI medical program in China

ABSTRACT The past few decades have seen a boom in English-medium instruction (EMI) in Chinese universities. Despite growing research interest in EMI policy and practices in China, little is known about how students’ motivation to study in the EMI programs is influenced by EMI policy and its implementation at the meso and micro levels. This study addresses this gap by examining an EMI program at a Chinese medical college. Through a survey of 118 students and interviews with 10 students and 6 teachers, we investigated students' EMI learning motivation, how and why it changed over time, and different stakeholders’ perceptions of the EMI implementation. The questionnaire and interview data were triangulated with textual analysis results of institutional EMI policy documents. It was found that students’ motivation generally declined over the course of EMI study and was often influenced by implementation factors such as pedagogical practices, assessment-related policies, and incentive strategies. Interactions and contradictions between the EMI policy goals, EMI implementation at different levels and students’ motivation change were also analyzed through the Activity Theory lens to shed light on how higher education institutions could better sustain students’ EMI motivation and enhance the quality of EMI programs.

High SARS-CoV-2 infection rate in children unvaccinated with COVID-19 vaccine in Changzhou, China, shortly after lifting zero-COVID-19 policy in December 2022

BackgroundChina experienced an overwhelming COVID-19 pandemic from middle December 2022 to middle January 2023 after lifting the zero-COVID-19 policy on December 7, 2022. However, the infection rate was less studied. We aimed to investigate the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate in children shortly after discontinuation of the zero-COVID-19 policy.MethodsFrom February 20 to April 10, 2023, we included 393 children aged 8 months to less than 3 years who did not receive COVID-19 vaccination and 114 children aged 3 to 6 years who received inactivated COVID-19 vaccines based on the convenience sampling in this cross-sectional study. IgG and IgM antibodies against nucleocapsid (N) and subunit 1 of spike (S1) of SARS-CoV-2 (anti-N/S1) were measured with commercial kits (Shenzhen YHLO Biotech, China).ResultsOf the 393 unvaccinated children (1.5 ± 0.6 years; 52.2% boys), 369 (93.9%) were anti-N/S1 IgG positive. Of the 114 vaccinated children (5.3 ± 0.9 years; 48.2% boys), 112 (98.2%) were anti-N/S1 IgG positive. None of the unvaccinated or vaccinated children was anti-N/S1 IgM positive. The median IgG antibody titers in vaccinated children (344.91 AU/mL) were significantly higher than that in unvaccinated children (42.80 AU/mL) (P < 0.0001). The positive rates and titers of anti-N/S1 IgG had no significant difference between boys and girls respectively.ConclusionVast majority of children were infected with SARS-CoV-2 shortly after ending zero-COVID-19 policy in China. Whether these unvaccinated infected children should receive COVID-19 vaccine merits further investigation.

Smart City Pilot Policy and Urban Productivity in China: Based on Difference-in-Differences Model

Smart City Pilot Policy and Urban Productivity in China: Based on Difference-in-Differences Model

Spatiotemporal evolution and key driver analysis of ozone pollution from the perspectives of spatial spillover and path-dependence effects in China

In recent years, ozone (O3) has emerged as the primary air pollutant in China, superseding PM2.5. Previous studies have concentrated on the spatiotemporal variation of ozone pollution, the analysis of its sources and drivers, as well as its environmental impacts and health benefits. Since ozone pollution can be dynamically transferred through industrial activities and meteorological factors, it is crucial to scientifically identify the spatial spillover and path-dependent effects of ozone pollution in China. However, existing studies have not yet addressed this issue. Therefore, we investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and the spatial spillover of ozone pollution by means of the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) using panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2020 in this study. The dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) was employed to reveal the key drivers of ozone pollution from the perspectives of spatial spillover and path-dependence effects. The direct and spillover effects of each driver on ozone pollution are systematically analyzed. The results show that from 2013 to 2020 ozone concentrations followed a fluctuating upward trend at national and provincial scales. Ozone pollution presented significant spatial spillover and path dependence effects. The direct effects indicated that economic growth, technological level, industrial structure, energy structure, ventilation coefficient, relative humidity and precipitation were the key drivers of local ozone pollution. The spillover effects indicated that population density, technology level, industrial structure, environmental regulations, ventilation coefficient, sunshine hours and relative humidity had significant spatial spillover effects on ozone pollution of surrounding regions. These findings will contribute to the understanding of the spatial spillover and path-dependent effects of O3 pollution, and provide scientific guidance for regional synergy and long-term ozone control policies in China.

How to promote the application of green pesticides by farmers? Evolutionary game analysis based on “government–farmer–consumer”

Green pesticide use, as a key means to reduce pesticide use, plays a crucial role in promoting environmental and food safety. However, the effectiveness of green pesticide use policies in China falls short of expectations. Existing research mainly examines the policy promotion issues of green pesticide use from a static and single-agent perspective. However, green pesticide use behavior is a dynamic process influenced by multiple factors, including the government, farmers, and consumers. This paper builds an evolutionary tripartite game model of the government, farmers, and consumers from the perspective of dynamic strategy evolution and explores the evolutionary conditions that affect the stability of the tripartite game strategy during green pesticide application. The results show that 1) through different partnership models, the government, farmers, and consumers can evolve to a stable state. 2) Keeping the government’s regulatory intensity in the market for green agricultural products within a reasonable range will help farmers apply green pesticides. 3) Users’ preference for high-quality vegetables will increase the market selling price of green products. 4) Maintaining the government’s ecological subsidies for green pesticides will help stimulate farmers’ enthusiasm for using green pesticides. Therefore, the government should appropriately strengthen ecological subsidies and market supervision, guide consumers’ green consumption behavior, and encourage farmers to use green pesticides.

Is carbon emission trading policy a panacea? The implications of promoting green total factor productivity

Market‐based environmental regulation is crucial in influencing environmental and socioeconomic development. Carbon emission trading (CET) policy in China has been implemented since 2012 to balance the environment and economy, especially the green total factor productivity (GTFP). Most previous studies have only conducted short‐term investigations on the impact of CET on environmental and socioeconomic development. In this study, we investigated panel data from 30 regions in China during 2003–2019, adopted the Global Malmquist‐Luenberger and Super‐SBM methods to measure GTFP, and employed the propensity score matched difference in difference (PSM‐DID) to investigate the effect of CET policy on the environment, GTFP, and secondary industry output. The results indicate that CET policy has a positive influence on carbon emission reduction, contributes to the improvement of GTFP, and provides economic value. Therefore, we believe that CET policy can effectively help China to achieve a win‐win scenario of environmental protection and economic growth.

City civilization, employment creation and talent agglomeration: Empirical evidence from “National Civilized City” policy in China

China's rapid urbanization has intensified urban employment pressure. The National Civilized City (NCC) policy is a significant initiative in China aimed at promoting high-quality urban development. We utilize the NCC policy as a quasi-natural experiment and employ the staggered difference-in-difference method to empirically analyze the impact of urban civilization development on full employment and human capital level. The empirical results demonstrate that NCC policy significantly promotes urban entrepreneurship and employment creation, boosts labor demand of local enterprises, and enhances the human capital level. The positive effect on employment is significant in both talent-intensive and low- and medium-skilled intensive fields. In addition, heterogeneity tests show that this positive effect is more pronounced in low-tier cities and previously polluted cities. Finally, the mechanism analysis indicates that the NCC policy can enhance employment creation through investment promotion at the city level and by expanding production scale at the firm level. The NCC policy's impact on human capital level is supported by technological advancement and innovation emphasis mechanisms from the demand side, as well as talent agglomeration mechanism from the supply side. This study provides policy recommendations for local governments to leverage the achievements of civilized cities in promoting employment.

Framing of development policies toward Africa: a comparative study of China and the European Union

ABSTRACT The European Union (EU) has been the leading development assistance provider to African states, with a long history and the largest amount, while China’s engagement as an emerging donor is burgeoning without aligning with the rules and norms established by traditional donors. Current research on the two donors’ development policies toward Africa overwhelmingly focuses on their differences and rivalries. However, various processes of convergence may also be traced in the evolution of the development policies of China and the EU toward Africa. This article investigates whether, and if so, in which aspects, Chinese and the EU’s development policies toward Africa are converging in the 21st century. It gauges the convergence or divergence in the two donors’ development policies in Africa from the perspectives of normative underpinnings and institutional set-ups, through a discourse analysis of their policy documents, the study of official cooperation frameworks and an analysis of institutional changes. The findings demonstrate that whereas China and the EU are converging to a significant extent with regard to their normative underpinnings, there are fewer similarities in institutional set-ups.

Thailand's China policy, 2014–2019: Hedging against China?

The Thai government, under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha, was heavily criticized for bandwagoning with China, totally accommodating Chinese demands. However, this study argues that the criticism is unconvincing. By examining three instances of Thailand's China policy between 2014 and 2019 using Kuik's hedging theory, it is found that the NCPO government had concurrently maneuvered limited bandwagoning and dominance-denial policies. These maneuvers were shaped by domestic factors, especially regime legitimacy. Consequently, this article concludes that Thailand's China policy under the NCPO is more accurately deemed hedging behavior.

Legal Safeguards and Effectiveness Evaluation of Family Pension Support Policies in China and Japan

As the aging process in China accelerates, the challenges facing pension policies are increasingly prominent, becoming a focal point of societal attention. Japan's legal framework and implementation of family pension support policies are relatively well-established, while China still has significant room for improvement in legal safeguards and practical implementation. Learning from Japan’s relevant policies could reduce the costs associated with the reform of China's pension system. This paper compares family pension-related policies in China and Japan, providing suggestions and summarizing them based on actual circumstances, aiming to further improve relevant laws and regulations and enhance the support and effectiveness of family pension systems.

How does local context matter? Assessing the heterogeneous impact of electric vehicle incentive policies in China

This study reassesses the effectiveness of electric vehicle (EV) incentive policies in China and explores potential disparities in policy impact across different local contexts. Initially, employing panel data analysis, it evaluates policy effectiveness using data from 80 Chinese pilot cities spanning 2010 to 2022. Subsequently, cities are stratified based on varying income levels, traffic conditions, population density, and administrative hierarchy to facilitate an in-depth examination of the heterogeneous impacts of EV policies. Additionally, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimation method is employed to scrutinize the dynamic effects of these policies over time, enhancing the credibility of the panel model results. The findings reveal that purchase subsidies, parking benefits, driving privileges, and charging infrastructure have significant positive impacts on EV market share. Specifically, financial incentives are more effective in low-income, low-traffic, low-density cities, as well as in provincial capital cities while driving privileges are more suitable for high-income, high-traffic, and high-density areas. This study also finds that usage-phase policies increasingly drive EV adoption over time, offsetting the negative impact of subsidy reductions. The results of this study hold substantial implications for policymakers, providing insights to design context-based EV policies tailored to specific local conditions.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of COVID‐19 Pandemic City Lockdown: Insights From Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

AbstractThe global COVID‐19 outbreak severely hampered the growth of the global economy, prompting the implementation of the strictest prevention policies in China. Establishing a significant relationship between changes in nighttime light and COVID‐19 lockdowns from a geospatial perspective is essential. In light of nighttime light remote sensing, we evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamic effects of COVID‐19 city lockdowns on human activity intensity in the Zhengzhou region. Prior to the COVID‐19 outbreak, nighttime light in the Zhengzhou region maintained a significant growth trend, even under regular control measures. However, following the October 2022 COVID‐19 lockdown, nighttime light experienced a substantial decrease. In the central area of Zhengzhou, nighttime light decreased by at least 18% compared to pre‐lockdown levels, while in the sub‐center, the decrease was around 14%. The areas where nighttime light decreased the most in the central region were primarily within a 15 km radius, while in the sub‐center, the decrease was concentrated within a 5 km radius. These changes in both statistical data and nighttime light underscored the significant impact of the COVID‐19 lockdown on economic activities in the Zhengzhou region.

Characteristics and life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of waste recycling after implementing new waste classification policy in China: From case study to national perspective

Under the background of resource shortage and global warming, it is of great significance to explore the status, influencing factors and carbon emission reduction effect of waste recycling in China after the implementation of new waste classification policy for guiding waste classification and carbon emission accounting. In this research, the temporal and spatial changes and influencing factors of waste recycling were studied from subdistrict level, life-cycle carbon emission reduction was predicted and policy suggestions for waste recycling were proposed. The results showed that after the implementation of new waste classification policy, the amount of recycled waste and the proportion of low-value recycled waste increased by 420.93 t and 2.29 % per month on average, respectively. The district center has the largest amount of recycled waste. Income was the main factors affecting waste recycling, and online shopping and takeout could become important sources of recyclable waste. Accounting cradle-to-grave life cycle carbon footprint, waste plastics takes up the most contribution, accounting for 39.11 %, and nearly 391.68 Mt CO2eq would be reduced by waste recycling in China by 2030. Therefore, in the process of waste classification, refining waste classification to increase the amount of low-value recyclables, and rationally deploying collection and transportation vehicles to ensure efficient waste recycling are of great significance to achieve the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”.

Household water price and income elasticities under increasing-block pricing policy in China: an estimation using nationwide large-scale survey data

Figuring out household water demand response is of importance to sustainable water pricing policy making and optimalization. The paper estimates price and income elasticities of residential water demand in China by using the unique dataset from Chinese Household Water Use Behavior Survey 2019 in 50 cities. Two instrumental variables of marginal water price and average water price are used to address the endogeneity in the context of increasing-block water pricing policy. Results show that price elasticity ranges from −0.170 to −0.543, meaning that the demand for water is inelastic. Income elasticity ranges from 0.062 to 0.133, indicating that water is a necessary commodity. It unveils that water scarcity cities have more sensitive price response. It verifies the effectiveness of the differential increasing-block water pricing schemes tailor-made to local water resources endowments. Besides, it shows that high water-consuming households have more sensitive price response. It suggests that implementing more stringent IBWP scheme for those households constitutes a promising policy improvement option in the future.