China Policy Research Articles

The bright side of supplier concentration: Investor attitudes towards the reopening policy in China

Supplier concentration (SUC) has disadvantage of vulnerability along with cost savings and efficiency. While current scholarship focus on the vulnerability of firms with centralized suppliers during the COVID-19 epidemic, there is no empirical study that explores the impact of post-disaster SUC on firm value as countries removing regional isolation policy. I focus on the impact of COVID-19 reopening policy on investor attitudes towards SUC after the resolution of a supply chain disruption crisis. I try to examine whether investors still perceive SUC as a risk signal or as a positive signal for rapid recovery. Using the event shock of China’s reopening announcement and data on A-share listed companies, I find that SUC has a positive impact on cumulative abnormal returns at reopening. I also find that positive effect of SUC is more prominent for firms that benefit from a larger reduction in transaction costs due to the reopening policy. I also analyze the moderating effect and find that information intermediaries such as analysts and media attention amplify the positive effects of SUC. My research provides new perspective on achieving post-disaster value enhancement through SUC.

Leave or stay? The determinants of the migration behavior of university graduates in Shanghai

ABSTRACT Millions of university graduates in China either stay in the cities where they go to universities (for their bachelor’s degree) or migrate to other areas each year. What factors determine their destination choice? This paper investigates migration patterns of university graduates from Shanghai among the university city, hometown, and other cities, and the roles of general factors and special Chinese factors such as hukou in graduate mobility. The main findings are as follows. First, key factors that attract graduates to stay in the university city, return to their hometown, or go to other cities are different and one factor may not have the same impact. Second, there are specific spatial patterns of migration from different types of hometowns to three destination types, as different types of hometowns offer different life experiences as well as opportunities in the spatial administrative system. There is a strong preference for Chinese graduates to move up the urban hierarchy to bigger cities than their hometowns. Third, the impacts of some general factors such as housing price, social capital, and human capital are similar to those of Western countries. The impacts of hukou vary. Although graduates have local hukou in their hometowns, most graduates from big cities, towns, and villages prefer not to return to their hometowns. Only graduates from small and medium-sized cities consider returning to their hometowns. But if graduates go to other cities, they do consider hukou factor. Our research has significant implications for urban and regional development and talent policies in China.

Does nature’s contributions to people value realization policy in China improve public awareness and preferences for marine biodiversity conservation? A temporal stability analysis

Management policies are crucial for safeguarding sustained and stable marine biodiversity amidst ongoing pressures such as land use change, pollution, resource overexploitation, invasive alien species and climate change. China established a nature’s contributions to people value realization policy (NCPVR) in 2021, aiming to encourage stakeholders to prioritize environmentally beneficial production and consumption choices, thereby stimulating intrinsic public motivation for ecological conservation. Biodiversity conservation is an integral component of the NCPVR policy. A choice experiment method was employed to investigate the changes in public preferences for marine biodiversity conservation in Jiaozhou Bay before and after the enactment of the NCPVR policy (in 2017 and 2023, respectively), aiming to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy on marine biodiversity conservation. The results indicate that two years after the implementation of the NCPVR, the public’s overall breadth and depth of awareness regarding marine biodiversity increased. Additionally, public preferences for marine biodiversity conservation increased, expanding from two categories in 2017 (shallow-water swimming organisms and marine plants) to five categories in 2023 (with the addition of seabirds, plankton, and intertidal and benthic organisms). The willingness to pay (WTP) for seabirds, plankton, and intertidal and benthic organisms, as well as shallow-water swimming organisms, increased from 32.21~85.77 CNY/person·year to 98.21~140.49 CNY/person·year. China’s NCPVR policy effectively conveyed important information about biodiversity conservation in the short term, enhancing public awareness and preferences for marine biodiversity conservation. The study also revealed that economic incentive policies for NCPVR remain at the conceptual propaganda level and lack operational incentives for biodiversity conservation. It is recommended that the government deepen the design of value realization pathways and market trading arrangements to stimulate the intrinsic motivation of the public for marine biodiversity conservation and ensure the long-term effectiveness of policies.

College Teachers’ Informatization-Based Teaching Ability and Performance

Teachers' informatization teaching ability is vital for integrating modern technology with educational practices, especially as technologies continue to evolve. These skills are critical for advancing the modernization of education and improving teaching quality, particularly in higher education. National policies in China, such as the "Education Informatization 2.0 Action Plan," highlight the importance of enhancing teachers' technological capabilities to meet the challenges of contemporary education. Focusing on the informatization teaching abilities of college teachers in Hunan Province, this research employed a descriptive quantitative method, gathering data from students and teachers at five universities. Significantly low to no correlation was shown between students' evaluations of teachers' technological proficiency and teachers' self-efficacy, though other factors, including in pedagogical strategies and digital resource integration, did not show significant relationships. Although college teachers have acquired basic informatization teaching skills, there remains room for improvement in areas like teaching implementation and evaluation. To address these gaps, targeted training programs, collaborative skill development initiatives, and up-to-date professional development aligned with technological advancements are recommended as strengthening these areas is essential for enhancing teachers' informatization capabilities and supporting the ongoing modernization of higher education in China.

The Content Analysis of High-Quality Farmer Cultivation Policy under the Context of Rural Revitalization: A Two-Dimensional Perspective on Policy Tools and Participants

Abstract: As the latest stage in the development of farmer cultivation, the sustainable advancement of high-quality farmer cultivation requires not only the rational application of public policy tools but also the collaborative participation of multiple stakeholders. By collating policy documents on high-quality farmer cultivation at the national, Shandong provincial, and Yantai municipal levels from 2019 to December 2023, a total of 26 policy texts were coded, classified, and quantitatively analyzed using the content analysis method under a two-dimensional framework that includes the dimensions of policy tools and participants. The findings reveal that the composition of high-quality farmer cultivation policy in China is unbalanced, with demand-side policies having a weak driving effect. There is insufficient mobilization of agriculture-related enterprises and social organizations, and policy follow-up requires strengthening. Additionally, the correlation between policy tools and participants is inadequate, resulting in fragmented policies. Based on these findings, it is recommended to optimize the structure of policy tools, emphasize the participation of multiple stakeholders, and align policies with the actual policy environment.

A Matching Policy to Address ESG and Non-ESG Risks Impacted by a Relocation Policy in China’s Chemical Industry

China’s chemical industry has faced severe environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues, such as high safety and environmental accidents and risks. To address these issues and promote industrial upgrading, China’s central government has issued a national relocation and improvement policy targeting its chemical industry. However, its countrywide policy implementation may also lead to other ESG risks during the relocation of chemical enterprises, namely industrial transfer. The typical ESG risks that appear to occur in developed eastern region provinces include a one-size-fits-all solution and unemployment, while less developed central and western region provinces may encounter pollution transfer, carbon leakage, environmental injustice, and health disparities. These ESG risks might overlap with other economic and financial (non-ESG) risks, like stranded assets, industry hollowing-out, and debt sustainability issue. These ESG and non-ESG risks could result from potential mismatches between chemical enterprises and chemical parks, categorized as mismatching errors explained by social-ecological systems, behavioral economics, and information economics. To better manage these risks, we propose an ESG matching policy comprising a national standardized ESG scoring and ranking system, a deferred acceptance mechanism, and a score announcement instrument. Such a policy innovation aims at achieving fair and efficient chemical enterprise–chemical park pairs, which would help manage both ESG and non-ESG risks and provide a just transition toolkit for China and other developing countries.

Elderly Citizenship Experience under Different Pension Policies: A Comparative Analysis of China and Japan

Abstract: As global population structures change rapidly, the social rights and welfare of the elderly have increasingly become a focal point of societal concern. Pension policies not only address economic issues but also encompass welfare levels, social equity, citizenship rights, and identity. This paper explores the impact of different pension policies on the citizenship experience of the elderly by comparing the pension systems of China and Japan. The study is based on pension policy documents and related data from both countries and employs a comparative social policy analysis. The comparison is conducted conceptually, focusing on the scope, content, and depth of the pension policies in China and Japan, in order to reflect on the elderly's citizenship experience in both nations. The research highlights that Chinas pension policy features a single-tier structure with limited autonomy and marked urban-rural disparities, which restrict the citizenship experience of the elderly. In contrast, Japans retirement policy is characterized by mandatory participation, clear responsibilities, and a multi-tiered structure, providing broader coverage and more comprehensive social rights and a sense of identity for the elderly. However, this system also brings about noticeable class divisions.

Health Effect of Elderly Family Planning Subsidy on Older Chinese with Only One Child

ABSTRACT The decades-long one-child policy in China has led to a growing number of older individuals with only one child. The Elderly Family Planning Subsidy (EFPS) policy was introduced to provide extra financial support to this group and was expanded nationwide in 2012. This study investigated the relationship between EFPS use and health among EFPS-eligible older Chinese using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. A total of 1,981 respondents were eligible for EFPS (i.e. aged 60 and above, had only one child, or were rural residents with two daughters). Respondents self-reported if they received EFPS in 2011, 2013, and 2015 and were followed up to 2018. Propensity score matching was used to match EFPS non-users with users based on their probability of using EFPS. Among the EFPS-eligible respondents, 256 (12.92%) used the benefit. Analysis revealed no significant differences between EFPS users and non-users with respect to mortality and other health outcomes (i.e. self-reported health, cognition, activities of daily living, chronic diseases, and depressive symptoms). Findings do not provide evidence that EFPS improved the short-term health of older Chinese with only one child.

A Review of Self-regulated Learning and Lifelong Learning in Chinese Vocational Education

This literature review explores the relationship between self-regulated learning and lifelong learning in the context of Chinese vocational education. Self-regulated learning is discussed as a foundational component in educational psychology. The relationship between self-regulated learning and lifelong learning is examined, illustrating how self-regulation skills foster continuous learning. Moreover, this review addresses the role of lifelong learning in vocational education in China, emphasizing the need for flexible, skills-based learning pathways to support economic and personal growth. In addition, the paper explores lifelong learning policies in China. The literature review culminates in a discussion on the challenges and opportunities in Chinese vocational education.

What is Taiwan’s China policy? Unpacking a mystery

This study seeks to clarify the confusion over Taiwan’s mainland China policy since 2016. A popular view suggests that Tsai Ing-wen’s policy, which incorporated both deterrence and cooperation, was based on a hedging approach. This characterization is misguided, as hedging rests on the uncertainty of the threat posed by mainland China. However, after 2016, Taiwan has viewed Beijing as a clear threat to its security. Another view suggests that Tsai’s government shifted toward a balancing approach. Yet, this balancing perspective overlooks Taiwan’s continuous and close economic ties with mainland China, which contradict structural realism’s stance that balancing tends to push rival parties toward economic decoupling. With this in mind, this article proposes an new dual-track perspective to argue that Taiwan’s post-2016 policy has, in fact, embraced a parallel approach that combines hard balancing with economic cooperation toward mainland China. This dual-track approach seeks to maximize Taiwan’s security through hard balancing and aggregate power via trade gains, and is therefore distinctive from both the hedging approach and the balancing approach. Although both hedging and dual-track approaches incorporate elements of deterrence and cooperation, their assumptions, motives, and behaviors are different. While the hedging approach is premised on the uncertainty of the threat posed by mainland China, the dual-track approach rests on the certainty of such a threat. While the hedging approach pursues muted and limited balancing to manage the security dilemma with mainland China, the dual-track approach pursues hard balancing. While the cooperation element of hedging seeks to build mutual trust with Beijing, the dual-track approach only seeks to use cooperation to profit from China’s rise.

Does artificial intelligence improve enterprise carbon emission performance? Evidence from an intelligent transformation policy in China

Does artificial intelligence improve enterprise carbon emission performance? Evidence from an intelligent transformation policy in China

Effects of a coal to clean heating policy on acute myocardial infarction in Beijing: a difference-in-differences analysis

In 2015, the Chinese Government launched the coal to clean heating policy (CHP), designed to improve air quality and health in China. The CHP banned household coal burning and provided subsidies for clean electric or gas-powered heating for millions of peri-urban and rural households. We aimed to investigate whether the CHP affected the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in Beijing townships. In this quasi-experimental study, we obtained township data on acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions and deaths, exposure to the CHP (yes vs no), and a range of covariates for periods before (Jan 1, 2013, to Dec 31, 2014) and after the CHP began (Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2017; and Jan 1, 2018, to Dec 31, 2019). The policy was gradually rolled out across villages, and townships in our study were considered exposed to the policy in periods when more than 50% of their villages were assigned into the CHP. We estimated the effect of the CHP on township incidence of acute myocardial infarction for all adults (aged ≥35 years) and separately for sex and older adults (aged ≥65 years) using a difference-in-differences approach that accommodates the progressive roll-out of the policy. Of 307 townships in Beijing, we excluded 156 (51%) urban townships where most villages had central heating and were thus ineligible for the CHP. Of the 151 peri-urban and rural Beijing townships considered eligible for the CHP, 75 (50%) townships were exposed to the CHP by the end of 2017 and 92 (61%) by the end of 2019. We estimated an overall reduction of 6·6% (95% CI -12·3 to -0·8) in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction from before to after roll-out of the CHP in exposed townships relative to those not exposed to the policy, with some evidence of larger effects in women (-11·7% [-19·0 to -4·1%]), older adults (-10·7% [-17·4 to -3·6%]), and in townships exposed for longer (-3·5% [-9·5 to 2·8%] after <2 years and -9·7% [-18·3 to -0·5%] after 2-4 years). Our results provide among the first empirical evidence of possible cardiovascular benefits from a household clean energy policy, and support efforts to implement and assess such policies in China and globally. Wellcome Trust, the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Comparative Anslysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Policies in China’s Manufacturing and Transportation Sectors

This study evaluates China’s environmental policies, specifically the increase of carbon emission tax rates and the reduction of carbon emission intensity, by developing a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model that incorporates energy consumption and carbon emissions. The production sector is segmented into manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and transportation, with transportation services acting as inputs for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms. We construct four cases within two scenarios, each characterized by distinct targets and policies. After calibrating and estimating the relevant parameters, we compare carbon reduction outcomes and economic fluctuations across the two scenarios. Our findings indicate that when targeting the same carbon emission tax rate increase or carbon emission intensity ratio reduction, policies that increase the carbon emission tax rate or reduce carbon emission intensity implemented in the manufacturing sector achieve greater carbon emission reductions compared to the same polices implemented in the transportation sector. Meanwhile, compared to the latter case, output experienced a greater decline, and inflation exhibited a more substantial increase in the former case. However, when the quantities of carbon emission reductions are approximately the same in the first quarter, policies that increase the carbon emission tax rate or reduce carbon emission intensity enacted in the transportation sector demonstrate superior performance relative to the same polices implemented in the manufacturing sector. This leads to smaller final output reductions and milder inflation increases. In summary, for equivalent levels of carbon emission reductions, policies implemented in the transportation sector yield more favorable economic outcomes than those applied in the manufacturing sector.

From restriction to relaxation: the impact of fertility policy on household savings across countries

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of fertility policy adjustments on household saving rates using a panel data policy evaluation approach. We examine seven Asian regions that initially implemented restrictive fertility policies and later relaxed them, providing a unique empirical context for understanding the economic impact of such policy shifts. The analysis indicates that early restrictive fertility policies had a significant impact on the household saving rate, resulting in increases ranging from 4 to 21 percent across countries. However, the subsequent relaxation of these policies had mostly insignificant effects on household savings rates, with the exception of Japan. Specifically, the implementation of fertility restriction policies in China, Hong Kong (China), Malaysia, and Singapore is associated with a 4-10 percent increase in the household saving rate. In Korea, these policies lead to an increase of 18.3 percent, and in Iran, the effect is most pronounced, with a 21 percent increase in the household saving rate. In contrast, the relaxation of family planning policies in Japan resulted in a 6.4 percent decrease in the household savings rate. These results provide new quantitative evidence on the impact of fertility on household saving rates, support the life-cycle theory of saving, and provide explanations for the differential impact of such policy adjustments.

PM2.5 Induces Developmental Neurotoxicity in Cortical Organoids

There is mounting evidence implicating the potential neurotoxic effects of PM2.5 during brain development, as it has been observed to traverse both the placental barrier and the fetal blood-brain barrier. However, the current utilization of 2D cell culture and animal models falls short in providing an accurate representation of human brain development. Consequently, the precise mechanisms underlying PM2.5-induced developmental neurotoxicity in humans remain obscure. To address this research gap, we constructed three-dimensional (3D) cortical organoids that faithfully recapitulate the initial stages of human cerebral cortex development. Our goal is to investigate the mechanisms of PM2.5-induced neurotoxicity using 3D brain organoids that express cortical layer proteins. Our findings demonstrate that exposure to PM2.5 concentrations of 5 μg/mL and 50 μg/mL induces neuronal apoptosis and disrupts normal neural differentiation, thereby suggesting a detrimental impact on neurodevelopment. Furthermore, transcriptomic analysis revealed PM2.5 exposure induced aberrations in mitochondrial complex I functionality, which is reminiscent of Parkinson's syndrome, potentially mediated by misguided axon guidance and compromised synaptic maintenance. This study is a pioneering assessment of the neurotoxicity of PM2.5 pollution on human brain tissues based on 3D cortical organoids, and the results are of great significance in guiding the formulation of the next air pollution prevention and control policies in China to achieve the sustainable improvement of air quality and to formulate pollution abatement strategies that can maximize the benefits to public health.

Continuing ‘reforming’ policies in teacher education internationally: what can we learn from current accounts?

ABSTRACT This article discusses common geopolitical issues, such as globalisation, decolonialisation, and economic pressure that affect the development of teacher education policy in England, Canada, South Africa, New Zealand, Russia, Israel, Jamaica, Portugal, Japan, Poland, and China. It goes on to describe these nations’ responses to these pressures and the challenges that they have and continue to face in developing their teacher education systems and building the profession. The article concludes with consideration of the ongoing struggle for the soul of teacher education, especially in England.

Central Asia in Regional and Global Policies of Russia and China

From a realist perspective, there is a power competition between China and Russia and the US-led West. Russian rulers felt that the very existence of Russia was seriously threatened by the advancement of the West in an anarchic system, and they reacted by launching military intervention in Georgia and Ukraine. The efforts of Russian rulers to firmly bind Central Asian countries to Russia through bilateral economic and military relations as well as regional organizations have also been shaped by their struggle to preserve Russian existence against the West. China’s efforts to bind regional countries to itself through the SCO and the BRI is a power accumulation reaction given by a state that has emerged as a power pole vis-a-vis the dominant power to the possibility of being prevented from strengthening itself within the system. Russia and China’s efforts to act together in regional initiatives have emerged as an effort of balancing the West. Accordingly, China’s becoming more influential in the region has been managed by the two states with the same concern and this has served the interests of regional countries. In this study, Russia and China’s policies towards regional countries and their approaches in regional organizations have been explained and analyzed from the realist perspective.

Research on the Application of Conjoint Analysis in Carbon Tax Pricing for the Sustainable Development Process of China

This study aims to evaluate the preferences of Shanghai residents for four key attributes of carbon tax policies via the choice-based conjoint analysis method, with the goal of understanding the potential application of carbon tax policies in China. The findings indicate that the most critical concern for Shanghai residents is the annual cost of the ca trbonax (48.87%), followed by policy transparency (24.72%), revenue allocation (16.68%), and policy implementers (9.73%). The average willingness to pay is CNY 1435.28 annually, indicating a relatively high acceptance of carbon tax policies. Furthermore, increasing public awareness of carbon tax policies significantly enhances willingness to pay, which in turn helps increase tax revenue and promotes the development of low-carbon technologies. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers on carbon tax implementation, contributing to China’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

Evaluation of crop structure optimization policy quantitatively and future directions in China: a PMC-Index model approach

Developing policies to optimize the planting structure is essential to ensure an adequate supply of agricultural products and guarantee food security. However, the rationality and comprehensiveness of China’s cropping structure optimization policies require scientific evaluation. Therefore, this research established an evaluation index system for China’s planting structure optimization policies using text mining and the PMC-Index model to evaluate eight agricultural cropping structure optimization policies in China since 2003. The results showed that: (1) The PMC-Index showed a general upward trend across the eight policies, with scores ranging from 4.88 to 6.61. (2) Seven of the eight policies were deemed acceptable, while one was classified as low. (3) The Chinese government has long focused on optimizing the structure of agricultural cultivation, and relevant policies have made significant progress in terms of logical connotation and long-term feasibility. However, there is still room for improvement in enhancing regulatory effectiveness and strengthening interdepartmental collaboration. It is recommended that the government develop more flexible and diverse incentive mechanisms, strengthen interdepartmental coordination, expand policy coverage, enhance the comprehensiveness of policy functions, and elevate support for agricultural technology.

Intergenerational transmission of fertility: evidence from China's population control policies

Abstract This paper examines how the number of siblings that parents have affects their fertility decisions in China. The population control policies in China affected individuals unequally across birth cohorts and regions. The exogenous variation in fertility is used to identify the effect of the number of siblings on the number of children for the next generation. The results show that a couple tends to have 0.034–0.068 more children (2.3–4.6% of the average number of children) and is 2.4–6.8 percentage points more likely to violate the One-Child Policy (9.3–27.1% of the violation rate) if the husband and the wife have one more sibling each. Moreover, the effect on fertility is stronger for couples in lower-income provinces where the fertility rate is higher and in rural areas where the One-Child Policy was enforced less strictly. Finally, I show that the ideal family size of the husband and wife is an important channel through which the number of siblings affects fertility. I also find that the effect of people's number of siblings has a larger effect on their ideal number of children than on their actual number of children, suggesting that they are constrained from achieving their fertility ideals.