Population Policy Research Articles

Populists and diplomats: Negotiated agency of the Turkish ministry of foreign affairs

ABSTRACT The two-decade-long Turkish experience shows that the populism-diplomacy relationship, contrary to the common wisdom, does not have to be hostile. The existing literature characterize often this relationship as adversarial, emphasizing the repressive measures used by populists to weaken diplomatic institutions and disrupt foreign policy continuity. This perspective suggests that populist leaders undermine diplomatic services to pursue their unorthodox agendas. However, this study challenges this binary view, arguing that the interaction between populists and diplomats is more complex and multifaceted. By combining insights from populism literature with diplomacy studies, this study demonstrates how diplomats navigate and adapt to populist rule. Using Turkey as a case study, this article shows how diplomats implement, shape, and, on rare occasions, resist populist policies. Consequently, diplomats under populist regimes can reassure international partners, support populist policies as confirmatory agents, and engage in damage control.

Patient perspective: Is intensive screening of women at high risk of breast cancer evidence-based medicine or déjà vu?

In 2023, a breast cancer risk assessment and a subsequent positive test for the BRCA-2 genetic mutation brought me to the uncomfortable intersection of a longstanding career as an advocate for high-quality medical evidence to support shared patient-provider decision making and a new role as a high-risk patient. My search for studies of available risk-management options revealed that the most commonly recommended approach for women with a ⩾20% lifetime breast cancer risk, intensive screening including annual mammography and/or magnetic resonance imaging beginning at age 25-40 years, was supported only by cancer-detection statistics, with almost no evidence on patient-centered outcomes-mortality, physical and psychological morbidity, or quality of life-compared with standard screening or a surgical alternative, bilateral risk-reducing mastectomy. In this commentary, I explore parallels between the use of the intensive screening protocol and another longstanding women's health recommendation based on limited evidence, the use of hormone therapy (HT) for postmenopausal chronic disease prevention, which was sharply curtailed after the publication of the groundbreaking Women's Health Initiative trial in 2002. These declines in HT utilization were followed by marked decreases in breast cancer incidence, providing a compelling lesson on the critical importance of a solid evidentiary basis for women's health decisions. Known harms accompanying the benefits of breast screening-overdiagnosis, psychological effects, and mammography-associated radiation-exposure risks-make empirical measurement of patient-centered outcomes essential. Yet, published research on intensive screening of women at high breast cancer risk has largely ignored these outcomes, leaving patients, providers, and guideline developers lacking the evidence needed for best practice. Outcomes research is both feasible and urgently needed to inform care decisions and health policy for this patient population.

Push-pull mechanisms in China's intercity population migration: Nonlinearity and asymmetry

Previous research has often assumed a predefined, typically linear, relationship between migration and city characteristics. However, few studies have explored how these factors asymmetrically influence migration as push factors at the origin and pull factors at the destination. This study utilizes mobility data from the return-to-home phase of Chunyun in 2020 and employs the Random Forest (RF) model to construct a nonlinear explanatory framework for the push-pull effects and their asymmetry in intercity population migration. The findings reveal three key insights: Firstly, there is a notable asymmetry between push and pull effects in the predictive importance of feature variables. Pull effects at the destination are more prominent for economic and employment factors, whereas push effects at the origin are more influential for factors related to the living environment and gender differences. Secondly, we identify the phase transition points and threshold intervals of coupling effects based on the variations in the shapes, gradients, and thresholds of the nonlinear push-pull effects. In addition, we examine the disparities in the context of push and pull dynamics for the interaction effects of multiple variables. Thirdly, heterogeneity in demographic subsamples and different urban scenarios is observed, with within-group differences exhibiting various patterns of change. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to develop targeted population policies that account for the complex interplay of push and pull factors.

Variation Between LGBT Estimates and State Policy Context

State-level social policy and LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender) population concentration are key measures that are often used as indicators reflecting geographic social climate. Still, research has yet to investigate how they may be interrelated, including the degree to which the LGBT population are subject to certain policies. Using population-based experimental data from the Household Pulse Survey and policy measures from the Movement Advancement Project, we compared measures of state-level policy and concentration of the LGBT population for 2022. After calculating the correlation between these two constructs, the authors identified state-level variation in these measures for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC. With a correlation of 0.58, the findings revealed variation at the state level and indicated that LGBT population concentration and state-level LGBT policy do not necessarily reflect synonymous social phenomena and constitute distinct but complementary measures for use in constructing indices of structural heterosexism and social climate.

Retirement status change, social support and life satisfaction among older adults: differences by household income level

PurposeThis study examines the relationship between changes in retirement status and social support and their associations with the life satisfaction of older adults, with a focus on potential differences across income levels.Design/methodology/approachWe analyzed various work-retirement pathways using retirement status data from two waves (2016 and 2018) of the biennial Health and Retirement Study. We examined the relationship between these pathways and life satisfaction, incorporating social support from close relationships, including those with a spouse or partner, children, immediate family members and friends. A subgroup analysis was performed based on household income levels.FindingsThe study found that completely or partially retired individuals reported higher life satisfaction than those who continued working. Those who had returned to work also experienced higher life satisfaction, particularly among the low-income group. Among the middle-income group, individuals transitioning toward retirement reported greater life satisfaction than those still working. Across all subgroups, closeness with a spouse or partner and having close friends were positively related to life satisfaction. However, a lack of close relationships with immediate family members was linked to lower life satisfaction in the low- and middle-income groups, though this was not found in the high-income group.Originality/valueThese findings have theoretical, policy, and practical implications for older populations, mainly retirees or those nearing retirement. The study suggests strategies to assist older adults in navigating diverse retirement pathways, such as fostering strong social connections and offering flexible or phased retirement programs to ease the transition.

Mental Health Assessment of the Population: Study Protocol of the MAP Research Program in Ukraine (MAP-U) and in Zurich (MAP-Z).

To conduct mental health surveillance in adults in Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees (Canton of Zurich, Switzerland) as an actionable scientific foundation for public mental health and mental healthcare. Mental Health Assessment of the Population (MAP) is a research program including prospective, population-based, digital cohort studies focused on mental health monitoring. The study aims to include 17,400 people from the general population of Ukraine, 1,220 Ukrainians with refugee status S residing in the canton of Zurich, and 1,740 people from the Zurich general population. The primary endpoints are prevalence and incidence of symptoms of: posttraumatic stress disorder (measured by PCL-5), depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7), and alcohol use disorder (AUDIT). Secondary endpoints include participants' health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L and EQ-VAS), experiences of somatic distress syndrome (PHQ-15), social isolation, social integration, and mental wellbeing (SWEMWBS). Baseline assessment starts in March 2024 with follow-ups occurring every 3months for at least 2years. MAP will generate reliable, comparable, and high-quality epidemiological data to inform public mental health and healthcare policies in the Ukrainian population. https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN17240415.

Heterogeneous fertility reponses to the two-child policy: growth-induced domestic migration and income effect

ABSTRACT The deteriorating demographic structure in China has already invalidated its one-child policy ineffective. However, smoothing the ripple effects generated by this policy will require more comprehensive population policies. This context led to the introduction of the two-child policy in China. This paper examines the effects of the two-child policy by observing the regions that were previously subject to the one-child rule. The findings indicate that a geographic mismatch between people’s willingness to have children and household income has resulted in an uneven distribution of birth rates following the implementation of the two-child policy, with higher birth rates concentrated in rural areas experiencing rapid urbanization. As the Chinese economy progresses towards a higher level of urbanization, population policies aimed at encouraging larger families will become less effective, as fertility norms will have permanently altered in tandem with the rising costs of urban living. With more affluent populations less likely to have more than one child, understanding how to increase fertility rates in demographic groups that have not fully transitioned to the advanced urban sector will be crucial for developing effective population growth policies.

Demographic Prediction of Population Size and Composition in Iraq

The significant increase in population growth rates is the largest in most developing countries, including Iraq, the increase is accompanied by a change in the characteristics of the population in terms of size, composition and distribution, this leads to a review of existing population policies, to be able to cope with the pressures that overpopulation poses on sustainable development efforts and future plans. Hence, there is always a need to make estimates of future population numbers and the changes that are likely to accompany the composition and distribution of the population at the level of different activities and areas of life. The methods of estimation differ from each other on the basis of each applied in completely different circumstances from the other, the reason for the difference is due to the level of accuracy of the data that are used as the basis for making these estimates and predictions indicate an increase or decrease in the number of future populations. This research deals with the use of some of the estimation methods that will be applied to the population in Iraq during a certain period of time, to estimate the numbers of the population in the future and these methods like (Exponential Modified, Logistics), the population numbers during this period (1989-2023) were obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics, and by using algorithms prepared by researchers for each method of estimation and During the extracted results, it is clear that the population forecasts of the population of Iraq will be increasing or decreasing in the future.

POPULATION POLICY AND ACHIEVEMENT SDGS IN INDONESIA

This article looks at the main problems faced in Indonesia regarding population programs, policies taken by the Indonesian Government and the achievement of SDGs in Indonesia. This research uses a descriptive study through literature study using journal and book sources as primary references. The results of the discussion show that Indonesia's natural resource potential is substantial in various fields, as is its population. The main problems were meeting needs within the development framework, issues of environmental damage, and the exponential increase in population, which would impact the next generation's survival. Various programs were launched to control potential environmental damage. Family planning programs, transmigration and education policies are used to anticipate this threat. Environmentally based policies are also not spared. Indonesia's SDGs achievements until 2022 show continued progress, as evidenced by the various awards received by the Indonesian Government for achieving the SDGs.

Implementing a smoke-free generation policy for Canada: estimates of the long-term impacts.

The aim of this study was to assess the potential impacts of the introduction of a smoke-free generation (SFG) policy in Canada with a perpetual ban on cigarette sales to anyone born after 2009 instigated on 1 January 2025. An existing Canadian model relating to smoking cessation was adapted and augmented to assess the impact of an SFG policy on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), life expectancy, health care costs, smoking-related taxes, and Canadian tobacco industry gross domestic product (GDP). The cumulative impact of the policy for the entire Canadian population was assessed for time horizons up to 90 years with an annual discount rate of 1.5%. After 50 years, this SFG policy would lead to 476 814 more QALYs, $2.3 billion less in health care costs, $7.4 billion less in smoking-related taxes and a $3.1 billion reduction in tobacco industry GDP. The combined value of health benefits gained and health care costs averted would exceed the sum of tax revenues foregone and reduced GDP, if the value of a QALY was at least $17 147. Use of higher discount rates and inclusion of unrelated health care costs had little impact on the interpretation of the results. The implementation of an SFG policy will bring substantive health benefits to the population in Canada. Although health care cost savings are lower than the combination of lost tax revenues and the decline in the GDP from the Canadian tobacco industry, the value of the health benefits realized outweigh the negative offsets.

Tailored text-messaging versus standard Quitline telephone counselling for smoking cessation among people who smoke from a low-socio-economic status background in Australia: A study protocol for a non-inferiority randomized controlled trial (The Quit By Phone Study).

Signficant inequalities in tobacco smoking exist, with higher smoking rates among people from low-socio-economic status (low-SES) populations. Tailored technology-based programs for low-SES smoking populations have the potential for high reach, but require effectiveness data from large-scale trials. This trial among Australians who smoke from a low-SES background will determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of tailored text-message (TTM) support compared with standard Quitline (SQL) telephone support service. This is a two-arm, parallel group, randomized, non-inferiority trial with allocation concealment and blinded outcome assessment in an Australian population within the greater Sydney region in New South Wales. Participants are adults who smoke daily (n = 1246), are interested in quitting and currently receiving a government pension or allowance, and will be recruited via advertisements. Participants will be randomized (1:1 ratio) to receive either 12 months of TTM quit support or enrolment in SQL telephone support. Assessments will be completed at baseline (telephone interview), within 1 month (check-in call), at 3months (on-line questionnaire) and 12 months (telephone interview) post-randomization. The primary outcome will be 6-month continuous abstinence verified by carbon monoxide breath test at 12-month follow-up. The study will test whether TTM is non-inferior to SQL by a non-inferiority margin of 2%, i.e. the quit rate in the TTM group will be no worse than 2% less than the quit rate in the SQL group. Secondary outcomes will include self-reported continuous and point prevalence abstinence and acceptability and cost-effectiveness of TTM versus SQL. Should the tailored text-message support prove non-inferior and more cost-effective than Quitline for this population, this will provide an opportunity for the upscaling of an effective, inexpensive and tailored quit support service. The trial findings will inform cessation treatment policy for priority populations in Australia and globally.

Population Models, Theories, and Policies

Population Models, Theories, and Policies

아버지 대상 가족친화제도에 관한 연구 동향

This study examined the trends in research on family-friendly policies targeting fathers at a time when men's participation in caregiving is increasing. By analyzing the limitations of existing research and exploring multifaceted research approaches, it aimed to establish more effective family-friendly policies. The study systematically analyzed trends in research on family-friendly policies for fathers in domestic academic journals from 2006 to 2024, focusing on research periods, methods, and themes. First, the number of research papers significantly increased from the 1st to the 4th Basic Plan of the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy. Second, quantitative research was the most common method, followed by literature review, qualitative research, and mixed methods. Third, studies on the current status and experiences of family-friendly policies were most prevalent, followed by domestic and international policy comparisons, the impact of family-friendly policies, and perceptions and demands for such policies. At this juncture, as research on family-friendly policies for fathers is being strengthened and expanded, analyzing these policies through multifaceted research can lead to more effective policy improvements to enhance fathers' participation in child-rearing and work-family balance.

청년의 생애 전략으로서의 지역 간 모빌리티: 청년들의 이주 의향 분석

This study explores the potential to interpret the regional mobility of today’s youth through the lens of mobility theory as a dimension of life strategy. Traditionally, domestic mobility among young people has been explained in terms of employment, better job opportunities, and the enjoyment of urban culture. However, to adequately explain the diverse patterns and mechanisms of youth mobility in the 2020s, a broader approach is necessary. This research expands upon existing population mobility models by incorporating variables related to the general state of youth life and future prospects, examining how these factors influence migration intentions. The analysis reveals that young people’s negative experiences or perceptions of constraints, in terms of economic conditions, subjective well-being, and the feasibility of future prospects, increase their likelihood of intending to migrate to other regions. These findings suggest that the youth may consider migration to different areas, regardless of their current residence, as a form of life strategy. This study also finds differences between metropolitan and non-metropolitan youth within the youth cohort. While perceptions of life constraints and conditional disadvantage in future realization are common to both cohorts, the variables that are significantly influential are more pronounced in the non-metropolitan group. These findings suggest that population policies related to the migration of young people need to more actively consider both their life prospects and local context.

Prevalence Of Oral Cancer OPMDS In Patients Visiting A Tertiary Care Centre In West Bengal – A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND: Oral Cancer is the 6th most common cancer in the world. Most of these oral cancers develop from pre-existing Oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMDs), previously known as pre-malignant lesions and conditions. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence & clinico-epidemiological parameters in patients with Oral Cancer and OPMDs visiting a tertiary care hospital. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a hospital based cross sectional study. The patients attending the outpatient department of this tertiary care hospital were selected after thorough clinical screening with a view to detect the presence OPMDs and OSCC. After obtaining written informed consent, all the details including habit history were recorded in a specially prepared clinical record sheet through active interrogation and proper clinical examination. This data were tabulated in the excel sheet to facilitate further statistical analysis. RESULTS: Fourth and fifth decades are the most prevalent age groups for development of Oral Cancer & OPMDs when considered together. OSMF was more prevalent in relatively younger age group of 20 to 29 years, with an increasing prevalence among women. All three forms of oral habits i.e. tobacco chewing, smoking and alcohol drinking are prevalent among males; whereas females have prevalent habit of smokeless tobacco. Cheek and tongue were the prevalent sites for development of lesions. CONCLUSION: The study shows the association between OPMDs & oral cancer with various epidemiological and habit parameters along with relative prevalence; which may help the policy makers to identify the target population and frame appropriate preventive policies.

Penal Populism in Criminal Cases in Courts

Penal populism is an approach in which the criminal justice system policy makers and practitioners formulate and implement dramatic and popular criminal policies to draw public opinion regardless of scientific findings. Populism may penetrate substantive criminal rules, and in this regard, severe penalties might be approved by lawmakers. Penal populism has its own traces in ceremonial laws as well; the laws that provide the best context to implement the populism actions and policies and thus provide the best condition for this phenomenon to shape. The practitioners of the criminal justice system may consider fast and dramatic trials and immediate and public enforcement of the sentences in their agenda under public pressure or political propaganda.

The Prevalence of Female Contraception in a Zero-Growth Population Policy

This study aims to describe why couples decide to have unmet needs and the impact on the family and the country of these decisions. The study used mixed methods. Qualitative, qualitative and secondary data analysis (quantitative). The results of the study High unmet need does not always lead to high fertility. Education, high female labor participation, and female empowerment are among the supporting factors. Independent women have a unique perspective in interpreting children. Women have the capacity to decide and analyze the presence of children. When a child is considered a burden on the family, it will be limited to have children. There's a group that identifies themselves as unmet need, but the TFR rate in a region remains stable. The willingness to spread children apart, or not have more children, and sexual intercourse without contraceptives have high no-birth outcomes. The conclusion is that not all unmet need contributes to a high TFR. Sexual intercourse without contraceptives, and still making TFR stable can be a new discourse for reproductive health issues of the people who use it.This study aims to describe why couples decide to have unmet needs and the impact on the family and the country of these decisions. The study used mixed methods. Qualitative, qualitative and secondary data analysis (quantitative). The results of the study High unmet need does not always lead to high fertility. Education, high female labor participation, and female empowerment are among the supporting factors. Independent women have a unique perspective in interpreting children. Women have the capacity to decide and analyze the presence of children. When a child is considered a burden on the family, it will be limited to have children. There's a group that identifies themselves as unmet need, but the TFR rate in a region remains stable. The willingness to spread children apart, or not have more children, and sexual intercourse without contraceptives have high no-birth outcomes. The conclusion is that not all unmet need contributes to a high TFR. Sexual intercourse without contraceptives, and still making TFR stable can be a new discourse for reproductive health issues of the people who use it.

CitySEIRCast: an agent-based city digital twin for pandemic analysis and simulation

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically highlighted the importance of developing simulation systems for quickly characterizing and providing spatio-temporal forecasts of infection spread dynamics that take specific accounts of the population and spatial heterogeneities that govern pathogen transmission in real-world communities. Developing such computational systems must also overcome the cold-start problem related to the inevitable scarce early data and extant knowledge regarding a novel pathogen’s transmissibility and virulence, while addressing changing population behavior and policy options as a pandemic evolves. Here, we describe how we have coupled advances in the construction of digital or virtual models of real-world cities with an agile, modular, agent-based model of viral transmission and data from navigation and social media interactions, to overcome these challenges in order to provide a new simulation tool, CitySEIRCast, that can model viral spread at the sub-national level. Our data pipelines and workflows are designed purposefully to be flexible and scalable so that we can implement the system on hybrid cloud/cluster systems and be agile enough to address different population settings and indeed, diseases. Our simulation results demonstrate that CitySEIRCast can provide the timely high resolution spatio-temporal epidemic predictions required for supporting situational awareness of the state of a pandemic as well as for facilitating assessments of vulnerable sub-populations and locations and evaluations of the impacts of implemented interventions, inclusive of the effects of population behavioral response to fluctuations in case incidence. This work arose in response to requests from county agencies to support their work on COVID-19 monitoring, risk assessment, and planning, and using the described workflows, we were able to provide uninterrupted bi-weekly simulations to guide their efforts for over a year from late 2021 to 2023. We discuss future work that can significantly improve the scalability and real-time application of this digital city-based epidemic modelling system, such that validated predictions and forecasts of the paths that may followed by a contagion both over time and space can be used to anticipate the spread dynamics, risky groups and regions, and options for responding effectively to a complex epidemic.

Understanding the effects of alcohol policies on treatment admissions and birth outcomes among young pregnant people.

This study examines whether state-level alcohol policy types in the United States relate to substance use disorder treatment admissions and birth outcomes among young pregnant and birthing people. We used data from the Treatment Episode Data Set: Admissions (TEDS-A) and Vital Statistics birth data for 1992-2019. We examined 16 state-level policies, grouped into three types: youth-specific, general population, and pregnancy-specific alcohol policies. Using Poisson and logistic regression, we assessed policy effects for those under 21 (aged 15-20) and considered whether effects differed for those just over 21 (aged 21-24). Youth-specific policies were not associated with treatment admissions or preterm birth. There were statistically significant associations between family exceptions to minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) policies and low birthweight, but findings were in opposite directions across possession-focused and consumption-focused (MLDA) policies and did not differentially apply to people 15-20 versus 21-24. Most pregnancy-specific policies were not associated with treatment admissions, and none were significantly associated with birth outcomes. A few general population policies were associated with improved birth outcomes and/or increased treatment admissions. Specifically, both government spirits monopolies and prohibitions of spirits and heavy beer sales in gas stations were associated with decreased low birthweight among people 15-20 and among people 21-24. Effects of Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) limits varied by age, with slight reductions in adverse birth outcomes among people 15-20, as BAC limits get stronger, but slight increases for those 21-24. Although treatment admissions rates across ages were similar when BAC limits were in place, treatment admissions were greater for pregnant people 21-24 than for 15-20 when there were no BAC limits. General population policies also appear effective for reducing the adverse effects of drinking during pregnancy for young people, including those under 21. Policies that target people based on age or pregnancy status appear less effective.

New Technologies, Older Workers in Banking and Nursing

ABSTRACTThe article examines how technological change and organisational restructuring interacts with population ageing and policies that extend working life, and how older workers understand these trends. Using organisational and contextual approaches and qualitative research on nurses and bankers in Czechia, we investigate older workers' experiences with digitalisation. The age disadvantage older workers experience in digitalising workplaces is produced by three processes: responsibilisation, production of insecurity and ontological precarisation. The responsibilisation of employees for their own digital training is disadvantageous for older workers both in banking and nursing. Digitalisation and restructuring make older bankers feel insecure. To decrease their insecurity, nurses construct a boundary between technology and personal care. The sectoral labour market context is important, as exemplified by a shortage of nurses decreasing insecurity. The precarisation of older workers is further shaped by how the organisational context in which digitalisation occurs intersects with individuals' household situation and welfare state provisions.