Policy Evaluation Research Articles

Evaluation of fiscal policy with text mining under "dual carbon" target in China

The establishment of “dual carbon” goals exemplifies China's global commitment as a responsible sovereign and the methodical advancement toward these aims is illustrative of China's capable governance in countering climate transformation. The actualization of “dual carbon” targets is contingent upon the foundation of robust fiscal policies, and meticulous assessments of policy documentation are instrumental in reflecting the foreseen efficacies of these measures. The study employs text mining techniques to articulate evaluative benchmarks for fiscal policy scripts under the “dual carbon” framework and engages a bidirectional fixed-effects model to corroborate the linkage between fiscal policy implements and carbon emissions, alongside a holistic appraisal using the PMC-CRITIC index model. The research corroborates that fiscal instruments, such as tax reliefs and green fiscal transfers, significantly encourage the diminution of carbon emissions. The average PMC-CRITIC index of the policy specimens assessed is 0.62, indicating a level that is permissible yet indicating potential for further refinement. Of the reviewed policy samples, the preponderance adheres to satisfactory thresholds, with an ensuing tier demonstrating exceptional policy. The average evaluations of policy timeliness, nature, and evaluation are laudable, notwithstanding the necessity for ameliorations in the precision of policy objectives, the credibility of the policy objects, and the targeted applicability of policy tools. Accordingly, in the trajectory of impending policy development, there should be an amplification of the collaborative mechanisms both horizontally among sundry tiers of local governance and vertically across disparate bureaucratic strata, the adoption of a systemized approach to elucidate and resolve the fundamental dissonances in actualizing “dual carbon” objectives.

Interrupted time series analysis of chronic periodontitis-related procedures before and after the scaling reimbursement policy in Korea.

To study the use of a quasi-experimental design to assess the effects of scaling reimbursement policies on the incidence of chronic-periodontitis procedures. Interrupted time series analysis was used to compare the effects before and after policy implementation using data on the number of periodontitis-related procedures from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (n = 740,467) and the Health Screening Cohort (n = 337,904). Periodontitis-related procedures with diagnosis codes were categorized into basic (scaling or root planing), intermediate (subgingival curettage) and advanced (tooth extraction, periodontal flap surgery, bone grafting for alveolar bone defects or guided tissue regeneration). Subjects' demographics and comorbidities were considered. The incidence rate of immediate changes and gradual effects before and after policy implementation was assessed. Following the policy implementation from July 2013, an immediate increase was observed in total and basic procedures. No significant changes were noted in intermediate and advanced procedures initially. A decrease in the slope of intermediate procedures was observed in both databases. Advanced procedures showed varied trends, with no change in the National Sample Cohort but an increase in the Health Screening Cohort, particularly among subjects with comorbidities. Following the new policy implementation, the number of intermediate procedures decreased while the number of advanced procedures increased, especially among patients with comorbidities. These findings offer valuable insights on policy evaluation.

Analysis of Village Government Policy in Improving the Quality of Education Case Study of Surabaya Student Exchange

Education inequality between villages and cities is a common issue, with villages often experiencing difficulties in accessing adequate education facilities. Village governments have an important role in improving the quality of education. This article uses qualitative research methods to understand the context, dynamics and complexities of education policies and their impact on communities. The Surabaya village government has developed an education policy that focuses on improving education in its area. This policy has shown positive impacts, but education policy evaluation is crucial to ensure sustainability and continuous improvement. Evaluations help identify weaknesses and challenges faced in implementing education policies so that improvements can be made and more effective strategies can be developed. Limited resources, facilities and competent teaching staff are some of the most significant challenges in improving the quality of education in Surabaya Village. PMM played a crucial role in the evaluation of the village's education policy, assisting in data collection and analysis, direct observation, community empowerment, and the development of recommendations for improvement. With the involvement of independent student exchanges, the village administration gains a more in-depth and comprehensive view of the effectiveness of education policies, which ultimately contributes to improving the quality of education in the village.

What makes randomized controlled trials so successful—for now? Or, on the consonances, compromises, and contradictions of a global interstitial field

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are a major success story, promising to improve science and policy. Despite some controversy, RCTs have spread toward Northern and Southern countries since the early 2000s. How so? Synthesizing previous research on this question, this article argues that favorable institutional conditions turned RCTs into “hinges” between the fields of science, politics, and business. Shifts toward behavioral economics, New Public Management, and evidence-based philanthropic giving led to a cross-fertilization among efforts in rich and poor countries, involving states, international organizations, NGOs, researchers, and philanthropic foundations. This confluence of favorable institutional conditions and savvy social actors established a “global interstitial field” inside which support for RCTs has developed an unprecedented scope, influence, operational capacity, and professional payoff. However, the article further argues that the hinges holding together this global interstitial field are “squeaky” at best. Because actors inherit the illusio of their respective fields of origin—their central incentives and stakes—the interstitial field produces constant goal conflicts. Cooperation between academics and practitioners turns out to be plagued by tensions and contradictions. Based on this analysis, the article concludes that the global field of RCT support will probably differentiate into its constituent parts. As a result, RCTs may lose the special status they have gained among social science and policy evaluation methods, turning into one good technique among others.

A Scoping Review and Assessment of the Area-Level Composite Measures That Estimate Social Determinants of Health Across the United States

Objectives: Evidence-informed population health initiatives often leverage data from various sources, such as epidemiologic surveillance data and administrative datasets. Recent interest has arisen in using area-level composite measures describing a community’s social risks to inform the development and implementation of health policies, including payment reform initiatives. Our objective was to capture the breadth of available area-level composite measures that describe social determinants of health (SDH) and have potential for application in population health and policy work. Methods: We conducted a scoping review of the scientific literature from 2010 to 2022 to identify multifactorial indices and rankings reflected in peer-reviewed literature that estimate SDH and that have publicly accessible data sources. We discovered several additional composite measures incidental to the scoping review process. Literature searches for each composite measure aimed to contextualize common applications in public health investigations. Results: From 491 studies, we identified 31 composite measures and categorized them into 8 domains: environmental conditions and pollution, opportunity and infrastructure, deprivation and well-being, COVID-19, rurality, food insecurity, emergency response and community resilience, and health. Composite measures are applied most often as an independent variable associated with disparities, risk factors, and/or outcomes affecting individuals, populations, communities, and health systems. Conclusions: Area-level composite measures describing SDH have been applied to wide-ranging population health work. Social risk indicators may enable policy makers, evaluators, and researchers to better assess community risks and needs, thereby facilitating the evidence-informed development, implementation, and study of initiatives that aim to improve population health.

Analisis Penyelesaian Konflik Antara Dinas Perhubungan dengan Juru Parkir dalam Kebijakan Pembayaran Parkir Melalui QRIS di Taman Bungkul Kota Surabaya

One of the problems that often arises in implementing new government policies is resistance from the community. This also happens to the parking payment policy via the QRIS (Quick Response Code Indonesian Standard) system at Taman Bungkul Surabaya. Although basically this policy aims to simplify and modernize the payment system, its implementation has actually triggered rejection from some people involved, including parking officers. This research aims to analyze how the conflict between the Transportation Service and parking officers is resolved in the parking payment policy via QRIS in Taman Bungkul, Surabaya City. The research method used is descriptive qualitative with interviews, documentation and data collection, and uses conflict resolution theory according to Ralf Dahrendorf which states that conflict resolution can be resolved in three ways, namely Arbitration, Mediation and Arbitration. The results of this research are to explain parking fees that have not reached the target, the application of QRIS for parking payments, conflicts of interest and policy evaluation, as well as digital transformation and socio-economic impacts.

Perceived government-expert discord and evaluation of COVID-19 policies in Hong Kong

ABSTRACT This study examines citizens’ retrospective evaluation of government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses specifically on the impact of perceived government – expert discord, i.e. public perceptions of disagreement between government officials and the medical expert community. Medical experts played important roles during the pandemic and enjoyed high levels of credibility, whereas government leaders were sometimes seen as driven by political motivations. Hence, perceived government – expert discord might negatively affect policy evaluation. Analysis of a post-pandemic survey in Hong Kong (N = 1,002) shows that people who perceive significant government – expert discord are likelier to blame the government for negative happenings during the pandemic, less likely to credit the government for positive outcomes, and less likely to see the government’s control measures as appropriate. These relationships are stronger among people who suffered more, economically or mentally, during the pandemic. Credit attribution, blame attribution, and perceived appropriateness of control measures, in turn, influence overall policy evaluation.

SARS-CoV-2 incidence, seroprevalence, and antibody dynamics in a rural, population-based cohort: March 2020 - July 2022.

Studies of SARS-CoV-2 incidence are important for response to continued transmission and future pandemics. We followed a rural community cohort with broad age representation with active surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 identification from November 2020 through July 2022. Participants provided serum specimens at regular intervals and following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We estimated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection identified by study RT-PCR, electronic health record documentation or self-report of a positive test, or serology. We also estimated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid antibodies measured by ELISA. Overall, 65% of the cohort had ≥1 SARS-CoV-2 infection by July 2022, and 19% of those with primary infection were reinfected. Infection and vaccination contributed to high seroprevalence, 98% (95% CI: 95%, 99%) of participants were spike or nucleocapsid seropositive at the end of follow-up. Among those seropositive, 82% were vaccinated. Participants were more likely to be seropositive to spike than nucleocapsid following infection. Infection among seropositive individuals could be identified by increases in nucleocapsid, but not spike, ELISA optical density values. Nucleocapsid antibodies waned more quickly after infection than spike antibodies. High levels of SARS-CoV-2 population immunity, as found in this study, are leading to changing epidemiology necessitating ongoing surveillance and policy evaluation.

Quantitative Evaluation of China’s Biogenetic Resources Conservation Policies Based on the Policy Modeling Consistency Index Model

Biogenetic resources are the foundation of biodiversity and are of great significance to the sustainability of human society. The effective promotion of biogenetic resource conservation depends on the scientific formulation and implementation of relevant policies, so the quantitative evaluation of biogenetic resource conservation policies can provide decision support for the next step of policy formulation. Based on text analysis, social network analysis, and the construction of the PMC index model, this study selected 132 policy samples issued by the Chinese government in the field of biogenetic resources, established an evaluation system for China’s biogenetic resources policies, which contains 10 first-level indicators and 55 s-level indicators, and drew the PMC curve diagram accordingly to quantitatively evaluate China’s biogenetic resources policies. The results show that China’s biogenetic resources policies are generally at a good level, which can meet the current practical needs of biogenetic resources conservation, but there are problems such as the lack of policy forecasts in the relevant policy texts, the lack of flexible planning in the short and medium term, the lack of co-operation among the policy issuers, and the insufficient guidance of innovation. Based on the results, this article puts forward suggestions for improving China’s biogenetic resource conservation policies.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Regional Road Transport Safety Service Level

Ensuring road transport safety is a critical imperative for regional development and public welfare. This abstract outline a comprehensive evaluation framework designed to assess the service level of regional road transport safety. The proposed methodology integrates diverse parameters, encompassing infrastructure, technology, policy, and human factors, to provide a holistic understanding of the safety landscape. Using real-time data integration and powerful analytics, the assessment system combines quantitative and qualitative indicators. Technology aspects of infrastructure evaluations centre on the effectiveness of automated transportation systems and their influence on accident reduction; architecture evaluations also cover the layout of roads, advertising, and maintenance requirements. Policy evaluation is examining current laws and the ways in which they are enforced while considering how they affect the behaviour of drivers and public safety. The proposed method uses DCNN method for intelligent road transport safety. Using DCNN algorithms to monitor and regulate traffic congestion in smart cities represents a significant leap in the use of deep learning in traffic management.

Concept paper: The evolution of policy approaches to educational inequality in Hungary and Lithuania

Over 30 years after restoring independence and a transition to democratic systems with market economy, post-socialist countries emphasised Western values of freedom and equality, which extended to all policy areas, including education. However, research suggests that transformation of the former socialist bloc have had distinct effects on equity in education depending on contextual variables, requiring a deeper investigation into the education sector. To fill this gap, this concept paper describes the historical policy evolution in a comparative perspective in two post-socialist countries, Hungary and Lithuania, evaluating the period between 1945 until today with a focus on educational inequality. The paper demonstrates the temporal dimension of the shifts in the meaning of educational inequality as a policy concept by analysing how historical legacies of socialism, new narratives during regime change, and the growing influence of global and European values have impacted education policy. Evaluation of recent policy shows a considerable influence of neoliberal policy imperatives on education policy. Overall, the analysis revealed numerous parallels between the two countries, as well as the diverging political trajectories after the regime change, and especially in the post-2010 period.

Research on China's Higher Education Policy

Taking China's higher education policy as the research object, this paper conducts a comprehensive and in-depth research on the historical evolution of China's higher education policy, current policy analysis, policy effect evaluation and challenges and countermeasures by using the historical analysis method, policy analysis method and effect evaluation method. The study found that China's higher education policy has experienced three stages of historical evolution before the reform and opening up, since the reform and opening up to the end of the 20th century, and from the beginning of the 21st century to the present, and the policies at each stage have had an important impact on the development of higher education. Currently, China's higher education policy has achieved remarkable results in terms of macro management, micro operation and characteristic development, but it still faces problems such as uneven distribution of educational resources and equity and opportunity in higher education. In response to these problems, this paper puts forward a series of countermeasure suggestions to optimise the higher education policy system and strengthen policy implementation and evaluation. In the future, China's higher education policy should focus on innovation and reform to promote the sustainable and healthy development of higher education.

Extent of global decarbonization of the power sector through energy policies and governance capacity

During the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, many countries enacted clean energy policies as a part of their economic stimulus packages. These policies are believed to have contributed to a significant reduction in the CO2 intensity of electricity. Here we conduct a retrospective overview and evaluation of energy policies’ effectiveness in reducing the CO2 intensity of electricity. We utilize governance capacity as a measure of policy implementation stringency, and the interaction between governance capacity and the number of categorized policies to adjust policy variables for governance effectiveness. We distinguish between the short- and long-term effects of these policies to investigate the impacts of policy instruments on CO2 mitigation. The results suggest that the increased policy efforts, when executed with effective governance, have led to long-term cumulative effects. Our findings provide insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of energy policies in CO2 mitigation, serving as a reference for policymakers in the post-COVID-19 era.

Evaluasi Pembinaan Program Anak Penyandang Kesejahteraan Sosial di Kampung Anak Negeri Dinas Sosial Kota Surabaya

Policy program evaluation is a systematic process for evaluating the effectiveness, efficiency, relevance and impact of a government policy or program. The main objective is to understand the extent to which the program or policy has succeeded in achieving its objectives, as well as to identify areas of improvement or adjustments needed. Policy evaluation is a step important in a sustainable public policy cycle, helping to ensure that policies can provide maximum benefits for the community. The State Children's Village is a program designed by the Surabaya City Social Service to provide services and protection to children who are in need and have social problems in their area. Evaluation of the development program for children with social welfare in the Surabaya City Social Service's State Children's Village was carried out comprehensively to ensure the effectiveness and positive impact of the program. The State Children's Village Program is an initiative of the Surabaya City Social Service which aims to provide guidance and assistance to children who suffer from social welfare. need, especially those who are considered recipients of social welfare or have social problems. This program focuses on developing children through training, coaching and mentoring so that they can live better, more humanely, and learn to behave normally. Through a comprehensive evaluation, the coaching program Kampung Anak Negeri can ensure that efforts to develop children in the city of Surabaya really have a significant impact in improving their welfare and creating better conditions for future generations.

Evaluation of efficient policies on the renewable penetration in electricity sector for an integrated energy planning model in TIMES

Evaluation of efficient policies on the renewable penetration in electricity sector for an integrated energy planning model in TIMES

Estimation of the Local Conditional Tail Average Treatment Effect

The conditional tail average treatment effect (CTATE) is defined as a difference between the conditional tail expectations of potential outcomes, which can capture heterogeneity and deliver aggregated local information on treatment effects over different quantile levels and is closely related to the notion of second-order stochastic dominance and the Lorenz curve. These properties render it a valuable tool for policy evaluation. In this article, we study estimation of the CTATE locally for a group of compliers (local CTATE or LCTATE) under the two-sided noncompliance framework. We consider a semiparametric treatment effect framework under endogeneity for the LCTATE estimation using a newly introduced class of consistent loss functions jointly for the CTE and quantile. We establish the asymptotic theory of our proposed LCTATE estimator and provide an efficient algorithm for its implementation. We then apply the method to evaluate the effects of participating in programs under the Job Training Partnership Act in the United States.

Modelling the factors influencing carbon efficiency of consumer choice to promote energy-efficient vehicles

This study investigates the main factors influencing carbon emissions from Four Wheel Passenger Vehicles (FWPVs) in Sri Lanka, an emerging economy where the transport sector contributes 12 % of total emissions. Pioneering a new methodology, we integrate System Dynamics (SD) modeling and decomposition analysis to comprehensively map the factors affecting fuel efficiency for the first time in Sri Lanka. Employing the additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI I), we analyze a comprehensive time series dataset covering all petrol, diesel, and electric-powered FWPVs registered between 2015 and 2019. Our study delves into significant drivers of CO2 emissions, including population dynamics, vehicle ownership trends, annual travel distances, fuel types, engine capacities, and technological advancements. Additionally, we quantify the impact of fiscal policies on FWPV emissions, revealing a surge in emissions in 2018 and 2019 driven by consumer preferences for high-capacity vehicles. Our findings offer critical insights for crafting effective policies to promote energy-efficient vehicles and mitigate carbon emissions in the transport sector, emphasizing the importance of targeted fiscal measures. By imposing taxes on high-capacity vehicles and incentivizing the adoption of low-emission options through tax variations and renewable energy incentives, policymakers can influence consumer behavior and drive significant emission reductions. Our study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and evaluation of fiscal policies to refine existing measures and accelerate the transition towards a sustainable, low-carbon transportation sector in Sri Lanka.

Participative rights in Welsh primary schools: Unpicking the policy rhetoric

This paper presents the findings from the initial stage of an Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funded project which examines the pedagogic practices that embed young children’s participative rights in lower primary classrooms in Wales. An evaluation of relevant legislation and policy in Wales from 2000 to 2022 was undertaken to explicate the positioning of teachers and their responsibilities regarding children’s participative rights. Data analysis detailed here sets out the legislative and statutory context within which teachers work, as well as the curricular and pedagogic framework which steers classroom activity. The Welsh Government has, for two decades, been explicitly sympathetic to embedding children’s rights in policy development, yet there is limited research evidencing the changes in educational curricula and practice. The gap between policy intention and implementation is not unique to Wales and therefore of universal interest. We report that although there is evidence of the increased inclusion of children’s participative rights in more recent legislation and policy, the move to education about, through and for human rights is only significantly pronounced in recent reforms such as the Curriculum and Assessment (Wales) Act 2021. We advocate that the commitment to human rights education made in the Curriculum for Wales is perpetuated and ongoing critical appraisal of legislation and policy is needed, alongside further research to understand how that commitment is being interpreted in Welsh education settings.

Challenges and improvement opportunities in a telemedicine pilot project

Background: A pilot project for telemedicine has been underway since June 2023. However, ongoing issues have persisted since its implementation. This study aimed to review the current status and challenges of this project and recommend necessary improvements.Current Concepts: The following challenges were observed. First, the primary and incidental effects of this pilot project were not presented. It is not a small-scale project as it targets the entire population without a strict predesign. Its evaluation must have a defined implementation period. Currently, an indefinite implementation period has been proposed until the medical law is revised. Second, safety measures were found to be inadequate. Lastly, from an industrial standpoint, the government unilaterally promoted telemedicine policies.Discussion and Conclusion: Enhancements should be implemented in this telemedicine pilot project to ensure safety. First, the project objectives were clearly defined. Clear policy effects and evaluation criteria should be presented, and the project should be implemented through a rigorous policy design to verify them. Second, policy measures should be established to ensure safety. Lastly, administrative and legal improvements related to telemedicine should be implemented simultaneously.

Integrated environmental-economic modelling for cross sectoral water policy evaluation

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) has set a deadline for 2027 to reach at least good ecological status (GES) in coastal waters in the EU. As nutrient pollution (eutrophication) is one of the main pressures in most EU coastal waters, and Danish waters in particular, significant nutrient reductions are required. In this paper, we take an integrated environmental-economic modelling approach to assess alternative strategies to mitigate non-point source nutrient pollution. A spatially explicit optimization model, TargetEconN, is implemented at the Danish national scale and extended to include mussel production as a marine water quality improvement measure. Different eutrophication mitigation strategies investigated in the model are characterized by whether nitrogen emissions are reduced at the source, between the source and the recipient e.g., by establishing wetlands, or in the recipient itself. We run scenarios exploring the uncertainty in baseline load assumptions and the effects of mussel farming. The results show that the potential for marine measures depends on the baseline load assumptions and that marine measures have a limited impact on the overall costs of achieving GES. The results also show that including marine measures has a significant indirect impact through the influence on the spatial distribution of land-based measures. We conclude that including mussel farming in policy initiatives to meet WFD targets has potential, but that the distributional effects across sectors and spillover effects to other policy targets should be a central part of the ex-ante policy discussions. We argue therefore that spatially explicit integrated modelling, as the model developed for this paper, can offer useful insights to manage the unescapable trade-offs in effective policy design to meet the WFD.