Poleward Winds Research Articles

The poleward shift of South Atlantic Convergence Zone in recent decades

During austral summer (December–January–February or DJF), intense precipitation over central-eastern Brazil is modulated by the South American Monsoon System and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Previous studies identified spatial variability in precipitation trends over this region, suggestive of a poleward shift of the SACZ in recent years. To identify underlying mechanisms associated with changes in the precipitation intensity and position of the SACZ, decadal averages of observed precipitation and the mean state of the atmosphere and ocean during three different periods from 1979 to 2014 are compared. Results show evidence of decreasing (increasing) average daily precipitation along the equatorward (poleward) margin of the climatological SACZ, likely related to a poleward shift of the convergence zone. Precipitation reduction along the equatorward margin of the SACZ is associated with weakening of the poleward winds along the eastern Brazilian coast and drying of low-to-mid troposphere (700 hPa) over the tropical Atlantic. These changes in circulation and moisture are likely related to the poleward expansion of the South Atlantic Subtropical High.

Geomagnetically conjugate observations of ionospheric and thermospheric variations accompanied by a midnight brightness wave at low latitudes

We conducted geomagnetically conjugate observations of 630-nm airglow for a midnight brightness wave (MBW) at Kototabang, Indonesia [geomagnetic latitude (MLAT): 10.0°S], and Chiang Mai, Thailand (MLAT: 8.9°N), which are geomagnetically conjugate points at low latitudes. An airglow enhancement that was considered to be an MBW was observed in OI (630-nm) airglow images at Kototabang around local midnight from 2240 to 2430 LT on February 7, 2011. This MBW propagated south-southwestward, which is geomagnetically poleward, at a velocity of 290 m/s. However, a similar wave was not observed in the 630-nm airglow images at Chiang Mai. This is the first evidence of an MBW that does not have geomagnetic conjugacy, which also implies generation of MBW only in one side of the hemisphere from the equator. We simultaneously observed thermospheric neutral winds observed by a co-located Fabry–Perot interferometer at Kototabang. The observed meridional winds turned from northward (geomagnetically equatorward) to southward (geomagnetically poleward) just before the wave was observed. This indicates that the observed MBW was generated by the poleward winds which push ionospheric plasma down along geomagnetic field lines, thereby increasing the 630-nm airglow intensity. The bottomside ionospheric heights observed by ionosondes rapidly decreased at Kototabang and slightly increased at Chiang Mai. We suggest that the polarization electric field inside the observed MBW is projected to the northern hemisphere, causing the small height increase observed at Chiang Mai. This implies that electromagnetic coupling between hemispheres can occur even though the original disturbance is caused purely by the neutral wind.Graphical abstractA schematic picture of the possible ionospheric variations during the MBW event on February 7, 2011. u is the thermospheric neutral winds at Kototabang, J is an ionospheric current, E_{mathrm{P}} is a polarization electric field, B_{mathrm{Z}} and B are the vertical and total components of the geomagnetic field, respectively, v_{mathrm{Z}} is an upward {mathbf{E}}times {mathbf{B}} drift, and Sigma _{mathrm{in}} and Sigma _{mathrm{out}} are height-integrated Pedersen conductivities inside and outside MBW, respectively. We suggest that the polarization electric field inside the observed midnight brightness wave in the southern hemisphere is projected to the northern hemisphere, causing the observed ionospheric height increase in the northern hemisphere.

A seasonal study on the role of h’F/meridional winds in influencing the development of ESF irregularities over Indian sector

In this paper, we present the seasonal variation of nighttime thermospheric meridional winds over Hyderabad as derived using dual ionosonde observations located at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.7°E, Dip Lat=0.3°N), an equatorial station and Hyderabad (17.38°N, 78.45°E, Dip Lat=12°N), a low latitude station, respectively, over the period of April-December 2013 using h’F data as discussed in (Sreekumar and Sripathi, 2016). The calculated winds has been compared with HWM14 wind model. The results show that trends of the derived winds from the ionosonde h’F data matches well with model wind near to midnight hours in all the seasons. However, some dissimilarities were observed during early night hours. Especially, the poleward winds during early night hours for different seasons were not well reproduced by the model. Later, the study is extended to understand the role of meridional winds in causing the variability of ESF occurrence vis a vis h’F. The histogram analysis of h’F vs wind values just before ESF onset reveals that the most probable combination of wind and h’F on the ESF days are centered around 350km and 50m/s. Additionally, we also performed Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) based on longer and shorter duration ESF events. The analysis reveals the distinct differences in the longer and shorter duration ESF events of Summer and Autumn equinox where the values of h’F as well as meridional winds where such that a steep change in reduction of poleward winds prior to ESF onset supported the longer duration ESF events in both seasons. However, this steep reduction is not so significant for the shorter duration ESF events indicating that meridional winds could play a crucial role in extending the spread F durations in longer duration events. The observations clearly demonstrate the reduction of poleward wind velocities during vernal equinox as compared to Autumn equinox, where larger poleward winds were present around ESF onset times. These observations are consistent with the equinoctial asymmetry as seen during year 2013 where more number of ESF occurrences were observed during vernal equinox as compared to Autumn equinox. Additionally on seasonal basis, analysis of the significance of meridional wind magnitudes during scintillation and non scintillation days were performed. The result suggests that non scintillation days were characterized with larger poleward wind magnitudes than scintillation days during vernal equinox and summer season. However, such a trend was not seen in the Autumn equinox season. This might indicate the possible role of poleward meridional wind in reducing the number of scintillation occurences during this season in addition to weakening of PRE height.

New results on equatorial thermospheric winds and temperatures from Ethiopia, Africa

Abstract. Measurements of equatorial thermospheric winds, temperatures, and 630 nm relative intensities were obtained using an imaging Fabry–Perot interferometer (FPI), which was recently deployed at Bahir Dar University in Ethiopia (11.6° N, 37.4° E, 3.7° N magnetic). The results obtained in this study cover 6 months (53 nights of useable data) between November 2015 and April 2016. The monthly-averaged values, which include local winter and equinox seasons, show the magnitude of the maximum monthly-averaged zonal wind is typically within the range of 70 to 90 ms−1 and is eastward between 19:00 and 21:00 LT. Compared to prior studies of the equatorial thermospheric wind for this local time period, the magnitude is considerably weaker as compared to the maximum zonal wind speed observed in the Peruvian sector but comparable to Brazilian FPI results. During the early evening, the meridional wind speeds are 30 to 50 ms−1 poleward during the winter months and 10 to 25 ms−1 equatorward in the equinox months. The direction of the poleward wind during the winter months is believed to be mainly caused by the existence of the interhemispheric wind flow from the summer to winter hemispheres. An equatorial wind surge is observed later in the evening and is shifted to later local times during the winter months and to earlier local times during the equinox months. Significant night-to-night variations are also observed in the maximum speed of both zonal and meridional winds. The temperature observations show the midnight temperature maximum (MTM) to be generally present between 00:30 and 02:00 LT. The amplitude of the MTM was ∼ 110 K in January 2016 with values smaller than this in the other months. The local time difference between the appearance of the MTM and a pre-midnight equatorial wind was generally 60 to 180 min. A meridional wind reversal was also observed after the appearance of the MTM (after 02:00 LT). Climatological models, HWM14 and MSIS-00, were compared to the observations and the HWM14 model generally predicted the zonal wind observations well with the exception of higher model values by 25 ms−1 in the winter months. The HWM14 model meridional wind showed generally good agreement with the observations. Finally, the MSIS-00 model overestimated the temperature by 50 to 75 K during the early evening hours of local winter months. Otherwise, the agreement was generally good, although, in line with prior studies, the model failed to reproduce the MTM peak for any of the 6 months compared with the FPI data.

Intrusive upwelling in the Central Great Barrier Reef

In the Central Great Barrier Reef, the outer continental shelf has an open reef matrix that facilitates the exchange of waters with the Coral Sea. During austral summer, cool water intrudes onto the shelf along the seafloor. Temperature observations reveal cool, bottom intrusions during a 6 year period from the Queensland Integrated Marine Observing System's Palm Passage mooring. A metric is used to identify 64 intrusion events. These intrusions predominantly occur from October to March including the wet season. During an event, the outer-shelf's near-bottom temperature decreases by 1–3°C typically over 1 week. The near-bottom salinity tends to increase, while near-surface changes do not reflect these tendencies. Intrusion events occur predominantly with either weakening equatorward winds or poleward wind bursts. A regional hydrodynamic model for the Great Barrier Reef captures the timing and amplitude of these intrusions. During intrusion events, isotherms tend to uplift over the continental slope and onto the shelf and the East Australian Current intensifies poleward. Over the shelf, a bottom-intensified onshore current coincides with bottom cooling. For numerous events, the model diagnostics reveal that the cross-shelf flow is dominated by the geostrophic contribution. A vertical circulation tilts the isopycnals upward on the southern side of the passage, causing an along-shelf density gradient and geostrophic onshore flow with depth. While wind fluctuations play a major role in controlling the along-shelf currents, model results indicate that a concurrent topographically induced circulation can assist the onshore spread of cool water.

Effects of magnetospheric lobe cell convection on dayside upper thermospheric winds at high latitudes

AbstractThis paper investigates a possible physical mechanism of the observed dayside high‐latitude upper thermospheric wind using numerical simulations from the coupled magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐thermosphere (CMIT) model. Results show that the CMIT model is capable of reproducing the unexpected afternoon equatorward winds in the upper thermosphere observed by the High altitude Interferometer WIND observation (HIWIND) balloon. Models that lack adequate coupling produce poleward winds. The modeling study suggests that ion drag driven by magnetospheric lobe cell convection is another possible mechanism for turning the climatologically expected dayside poleward winds to the observed equatorward direction. The simulation results are validated by HIWIND, European Incoherent Scatter, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. The results suggest a strong momentum coupling between high‐latitude ionospheric plasma circulation and thermospheric neutral winds in the summer hemisphere during positive IMF Bz periods, through the formation of magnetospheric lobe cell convection driven by persistent positive IMF By. The CMIT simulation adds important insight into the role of dayside coupling during intervals of otherwise quiet geomagnetic activity

An incoherent scatter radar study of the midnight temperature maximum that occurred at Arecibo during a sudden stratospheric warming event in January 2010

AbstractWe present an analysis of the thermospheric midnight temperature maximum, a large increment of temperature around midnight. The analysis is based on data collected from the Arecibo incoherent scatter radar during 14–21 January 2010. The experiment overlaps with a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event which commenced on 18 January 2010. Throughout the observation, the ion temperature exhibited moderate increase around postmidnight during 14–17 January, while it showed more intense increment during 18–21 January. In particular, on 20 January, the amplitude of the midnight temperature maximum (MTM) is 310 K, which is seldom seen at Arecibo. During the SSW, the meridional wind reverses toward the pole just before the commencement of the MTM. Then, the poleward wind and the ion temperature maximize almost at the same time. The variation of meridional wind and the MTM are consistent with the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) studies, which suggested that the variation is due to effects from an upward propagating terdiurnal tide. On the nights of 18–19 January, the MTM showed clear phase variation at the heights of 265, 303, and 342 km. A strong terdiurnal tide has been observed during the SSW and it is likely generated from low atmosphere and propagating upward. Our results provide direct observational evidence that the propagating upward terdiurnal tide plays an important role in causing the MTM, which supports the WAM simulations.

Nighttime thermospheric meridional winds as inferred from ionosonde parameters over Indian region and their plausible effects on plasma irregularities

In this paper, we present nighttime thermospheric meridional winds at Indian low latitude station namely Hyderabad during March–May 2013 derived using (a) h’F method and (b) hpF2 method based on ionosondes. The estimation of meridional winds using h’F method employs the basic principle that the vertical drift at magnetic equator is purely due to ExB drift, while for a station slightly away from magnetic equator, meridional wind also contributes for the vertical drift in addition to diffusion along the field lines. Assuming the EXB drifts are the same at both the locations, the vertical drift contribution is subtracted from the equatorial vertical drifts and then meridional winds are derived, whereas in hpF2 method, winds are derived using the SERVO theory. The winds so derived are compared with HWM07 wind model. The comparison suggests that magnitude of winds derived using h’F method are in better agreement with HWM07 model than hpF2 derived winds where their polarities are better comparable to HWM07 model than hpF2 method. The poor agreement of hpF2 method could be due to uncertainties involved in estimating various ionospheric parameters. Also the winds derived using h’F method showed signatures of the well known phenomenon of Midnight Temperature Maximum (MTM). Based on these results, we suggest that h’F method is better suited for meridional wind estimates over low latitudes than hpF2 method. Accordingly, we further investigated the role of thermospheric meridional winds in equatorial spread F (ESF) occurrence. Our results suggest that equatorward winds along with post sunset height increase could enhance the Rayleigh Taylor (RT) instability growth rate and thereby leading to the generation of ESF/scintillations. The Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) technique has been applied to understand the general trend of h’F and meridional winds around the ESF onset time. The study showed reduction in poleward winds, half an hour prior to the onset of ESF. Hence indicating the role of meridional winds in the generation of plasma irregularities/scintillations in addition to post sunset height rise.

Causes for different spatial distributions of minimum Arctic sea-ice extent in 2007 and 2012

Satellite records show the minimum Arctic sea ice extents (SIEs) were observed in the Septembers of 2007 and 2012, but the spatial distributions of sea ice concentration reduction in these two years were quite different. Atmospheric circulation pattern and the upper-ocean state in summer were investigated to explain the difference. By employing the ice-temperature and ice-specific humidity (SH) positive feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean, this paper shows that in 2007 and 2012 the higher surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) accompanied by more surface SH and higher sea surface temperature (SST), as a consequence, the strengthened poleward wind was favorable for melting summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years. SAT was the dominant factor influencing the distribution of Arctic sea ice melting. The correlation coefficient is–0.84 between SAT anomalies in summer and the Arctic SIE anomalies in autumn. The increase SAT in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012 corresponded to a quicker melting of sea ice in the Arctic. The SLP and related wind were promoting factors connected with SAT. Strengthening poleward winds brought warm moist air to the Arctic and accelerated the melting of sea ice in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012. Associated with the rising air temperature, the higher surface SH and SST also played a positive role in reducing summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years, which form two positive feedbacks mechanism.

Thermospheric poleward wind surge at midlatitudes during great storm intervals

AbstractWe report a significant poleward surge in thermospheric winds at subauroral and midlatitudes following the 17–18 March 2015 great geomagnetic storm. This premidnight surge is preceded by strong westward winds. These disturbances were observed over three sites with geodetic latitudes 35–42°N in the American sector by Fabry‐Perot interferometers at 630 nm wavelength. Prior to the wind disturbances, subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) were measured by the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar between 20 and 02 UT. We identify the observed neutral wind variations as driven by SAPS, through a scenario where strong ion flows cause a westward neutral wind, subsequently establishing a poleward wind surge due to the poleward Coriolis force on that westward wind. These regional disturbances appear to have prevented the well‐known storm time equatorward wind surge from propagating into low latitudes, with the consequence that the classic disturbance dynamo mechanism failed to occur.

Horizontal winds derived from the polar mesospheric cloud images as observed by the CIPS instrument on the AIM satellite

AbstractA cloud pattern matching technique is applied to polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) images taken by the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size instrument (CIPS) to infer the wind velocities in the mesopause region. CIPS measurements are analyzed to detect patterns that repeat from one orbit to the next but are displaced in location; the displacement provides a measure of the wind velocity. Pattern matching is achieved by resampling the CIPS data to longitude and latitude grids with the grid‐box size forced at ~5 km in both directions. The correlated patterns are searched within a geographic region referred to as a “frame” of ~500 km in longitude × 400 km in latitude. The histograms of the derived velocities indicate that easterly winds prevail, with a mean zonal wind of −20 to −15 m/s. Mean meridional winds are overall small, but in late summer the histogram indicated a poleward wind of ~20–30 m/s. The variability of CIPS cloud albedo on consecutive orbits is also examined at fixed geolocations. The statistical results suggest that ~86% of pairs underwent mean cloud albedo variation of < 50% on consecutive orbits, suggesting a moderate change. It is also found that the correlation of the cloud structures between two consecutive orbits at a fixed location is generally poor. These findings suggest that cloud patterns are subject to wind advection, but the cloud patches are more extended in size than the movement that occurs. Cloud voids are found to be more likely to remain at the same geolocations.

Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds

AbstractThe southern hemisphere westerly winds have been strengthening and shifting poleward since the 1950s. This wind trend is projected to persist under continued anthropogenic forcing, but the impact of the changing winds on Antarctic coastal heat distribution remains poorly understood. Here we show that a poleward wind shift at the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula can produce an intense warming of subsurface coastal waters that exceeds 2°C at 200–700 m depth. The model simulated warming results from a rapid advective heat flux induced by weakened near‐shore Ekman pumping and is associated with weakened coastal currents. This analysis shows that anthropogenically induced wind changes can dramatically increase the temperature of ocean water at ice sheet grounding lines and at the base of floating ice shelves around Antarctica, with potentially significant ramifications for global sea level rise.

Southern Hemisphere westerly wind changes during the Last Glacial Maximum: model-data comparison

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly winds are thought to be critical to global ocean circulation, productivity, and carbon storage. For example, an equatorward shift in the winds, though its affect on the Southern Ocean circulation, has been suggested as the leading cause for the reduction in atmospheric CO2 during the Last Glacial period. Despite the importance of the winds, it is currently not clear, from observations or model results, how they behave during the Last Glacial. Here, an atmospheric modelling study is performed to help determine likely changes in the SH westerly winds during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Using LGM boundary conditions, the maximum in SH westerlies is strengthened by ∼+1 m s−1 and moved southward by ∼2° at the 850 hPa pressure level. Boundary layer stabilisation effects over equatorward extended LGM sea-ice can lead to a small apparent equatorward shift in the wind band at the surface. Further sensitivity analysis with individual boundary condition changes indicate that changes in sea surface temperatures are the strongest factor behind the wind change. The HadAM3 atmospheric simulations, along with published PMIP2 coupled climate model simulations, are then assessed against the newly synthesised database of moisture observations for the LGM. Although the moisture data is the most commonly cited evidence in support of a large equatorward shift in the SH winds during the LGM, none of the models that produce realistic LGM precipitation changes show such a large equatorward shift. In fact, the model which best simulates the moisture proxy data is the HadAM3 LGM simulation which shows a small poleward wind shift. While we cannot prove here that a large equatorward shift would not be able to reproduce the moisture data as well, we show that the moisture proxies do not provide an observational evidence base for it.

First daytime thermospheric wind observation from a balloon‐borne Fabry‐Perot interferometer over Kiruna (68N)

HIWIND (High altitude Interferometer WIND Observation) is the first balloon Fabry‐Perot interferometer (FPI) to achieve successful thermospheric wind measurement for both day and night. By flying at ∼40 km altitude, HIWIND avoids the high solar scattering background and enables daytime remote sensing of Doppler shift in airglow for thermospheric wind observation. During its first flight in June 2011 from Kiruna, (68N, 65 MLAT), HIWIND observed persistent equatorward winds, while the NCAR TIEGCM model predicted poleward winds on the dayside. Combined with simultaneous EISCAT incoherent scatter radar observation, HIWIND yielded a daytime Burnside factor value of 0.85. HIWIND data appear to suggest that upward vertical winds near the auroral oval may be the cause for large differences between the FPI measured and radar derived winds near midnight.

Physical Oceanographic Influences on Central Benguela Fish Catch

Abstract Ocean and atmosphere reanalysis fields are used to study environmental conditions and their relation to commercial fish catch in the central Benguela upwelling zone, using both targeted and objective techniques. Composite maps and sections indicate a 10%–20% weakening of southeasterly winds, a 0.5°C warming of sea temperatures over the shelf, and changes in currents and subsurface upwelling associated with higher fish catch. During periods of high fish catch, recirculating gyres form that may aid the retention of eggs and larvae. Offshore winds contribute to poleward Ekman transport in a 50-m-deep layer within 100 km of the coast. In addition to composite analysis, the natural variability is studied by principal component analysis of wind stress, sea level, temperature, salinity, currents, and vertical motion in the period 1970–2007. Comparison of interannual time scores and fisheries data indicate that anomalous poleward winds and warmer temperatures in the Lüderitz plume, driven by an atmospheric trough in the South Atlantic, are associated with higher catch rates.

Hemispherical distribution of CO above the Venus’ clouds by ground-based 2.3 μm spectroscopy

The abundance of carbon monoxide in the Venus’ dayside atmosphere above the clouds was measured by ground-based 2.3 μm spectroscopy for 4 days. The hemispherical distributions found show no significant latitudinal or longitudinal structure. The disc-averaged mixing ratio of 58 ± 17 ppm found at a representative height of 62–67 km is consistent with previous measurements. Such a flat distribution of CO abundance above the clouds seems to be controlled by an efficient horizontal eddy diffusion with a time scale of 30 days or shorter although the CO distribution below the clouds seems to be controlled by the meridional circulation. The pole-ward wind speed of the meridional circulation above the clouds is estimated to be 0.2 m s −1 or less based on the difference between the CO mixing ratios above and below the clouds.

Northeastward motion of nighttime medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances at middle latitudes observed by an airglow imager

Nighttime medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) observed in 630‐nm airglow images at middle latitudes are known to have a predominantly northwest‐southeast phase surface and to move southwestward in the Northern Hemisphere of Earth. However, the mechanisms of MSTID generation and their systematic southwestward motion have not been clarified. In this paper, we report the “northeastward” motion of the MSTIDs observed at Paratunka, Far East Russia (52.97°N, 158.25°E), using an all‐sky 630‐nm airglow imager at 2000–2300 LT on 19 August 2007. The MSTIDs moved first southwestward but then back northeastward in the northern part of the images. The northeastward motion of the MSTIDs took place coincident with a F layer height decrease observed by an ionosonde at Paratunka. The F layer height decrease was also confirmed by an enhancement of the 630‐nm airglow intensity, which seemed to propagate from northeast to southwest. This fact suggests that the F layer height decrease was caused by poleward wind enhancement rather than westward electric field. These observations imply that the F layer height decrease or the poleward thermospheric wind has some role in the northeastward turning of the MSTID propagation direction.

Meridional winds derived from COSMIC radio occultation measurements

Meridional winds at the magnetic meridian in the upper thermosphere are derived from the peak height and density of the ionospheric F2 layer as retrieved by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites for 4 months from November 2006 to February 2007. These winds (referred to as COSMIC winds) are first validated by comparison at multiple locations with winds obtained from ground‐based incoherent scatter radar (ISR) and Fabry‐Perot interferometer (FPI) measurements. Then longitudinal variations of these winds are investigated and compared with simulations by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR TIE‐GCM). The results show generally good agreement between COSMIC winds, ground‐based measurements, and the simulations. Significant longitudinal variations are presented in the COSMIC winds. At 40°N (local winter), around midnight the COSMIC winds exhibit stronger and longer‐duration equatorward velocities within 110°W–20°W (large negative magnetic declination sector) than those in other longitudes; during late morning hours the poleward winds show similar longitudinal variations. At 40°S (local summer), during the daytime the poleward winds are stronger within 120°E–110°W (large positive magnetic declination sector) than in 60°W–90°E (large negative magnetic declination sector), while during the nighttime the maximum equatorward winds shifts about 2 h later in 60°W–90°E than in 120°E–110°W. Analysis of the TIE‐GCM simulations suggests that the longitudinal variation of meridional winds is mainly induced by magnetic declination due to the contribution of geographic zonal wind.

Seasonal Evolution of the Upwelling Process South of Cape Blanco*

Abstract Bursts of upwelling-favorable winds lasting 4–20 days occur year-round south of Cape Blanco, a major headland on the Oregon coast. The ocean’s response to these events was studied using moored current, temperature, and salinity data; satellite SST data; and a few across-shelf sections near the mooring site. The mooring was located at 42°26.49′N, 124°34.47′W, 6 n mi off Gold Beach, Oregon, from May 2000 to October 2003. After the spring transition but before upwelling jet separation, equatorward wind stress produced a steady upwelling response much the same as a long, straight coast. Currents and winds had similar spectral characteristics with a peak near 15 days. After jet separation, upwelling-favorable winds forced a much more variable current consisting of a series of thin equatorward jets that evolved and moved offshore across the mooring, with shorter time scales than the wind stress forcing. During autumn, the equatorward wind stress weakened slightly and a transition period occurred, with the flow often poleward along the bottom. During winter, the water column was unstratified during poleward winds and currents with little variation in SST across the shelf. Winter upwelling restratified the water column from the bottom up by drawing cold, salty water onshore along the bottom, with little or no change in SST. This scenario was modulated by strong intraseasonal and interannual variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A wavelet transform analysis of alongshore wind stress and the first empirical orthogonal mode of the alongshore currents revealed strong energy peaks in the 30–70-day band. These signals were particularly clear in the ocean and were not coherent with the local wind stress, suggesting they were due to Kelvin waves of equatorial origin. The shift toward longer (40–45–60 days) periods from 2000 to 2003 was consistent with decreasing (warming) northern oscillation index, suggesting that the period as well as the energy of the intraseasonal waves may be important in transmitting heat poleward during warm years.

Estuarine versus transient flow regimes in Juan de Fuca Strait

Residual currents in Juan de Fuca Strait are observed to switch between two fundamental states: estuarine and transient. The estuarine regime, which prevails roughly 90% of the time in summer and 55% of the time in winter, has a fortnightly modulated, three‐layer structure characterized by strong (∼50 cm s−1) outflow above 60 ± 15 m depth, moderate (∼25 cm s−1) inflow between 60 and 125 m depth, and weak (∼10 cm s−1) inflow below 125 ± 10 m depth. Rotation increases the upper layer depth by 40 m on the northern side of the channel and upwelling‐favorable coastal winds augment inflow in the bottom layer by as much as 5 cm s−1. Rotation, combined with modulation of the estuarine currents by tidal mixing in the eastern strait, leads to fortnightly variability in the along‐channel velocity and cross‐channel positioning of the core flow regions. Transient flows, which occur roughly 10% of the time in summer and 45% of the time in winter, are rapidly evolving, horizontally and vertically sheared “reversals” in the estuarine circulation generated during poleward wind events along the outer coast. Major events can persist for several weeks, force a net inward transport, and give rise to an O(10) km wide, surface‐intensified, O(100) cm s−1 inflow along the southern (Olympic Peninsula) boundary of the strait. This “Olympic Peninsula Countercurrent” is typically accompanied by an abrupt decrease in salinity, indicating that it is a buoyancy flow originating with low‐density water on the northern Washington shelf.