Poleward Migration Research Articles

Recent emergence of CAT5 tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean

The IBTrACS global best track data set endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization provides a valuable global record of tropical cyclone genesis, track and intensity, and spans 1842 to the present. The record is significantly more robust from the late 1970s onwards, as it is supported by satellite imagery. These records indicate that the first tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean to intensify to CAT5 status did so in 1994. This date is significantly later than the first CAT5 storms recorded in the IBTrACS database for the Atlantic Ocean (1924) and the North Pacific (1951) recorded from ship records, and half a decade later than those of the North Indian Ocean (1989) and South Pacific (1988), captured from satellite imagery. Following this late emergence, in the period 1990–2000, eight CAT5 tropical cyclones were recorded for the South Indian Ocean. A further four have been recorded for the period 2010–2015. This recent emergence of tropical cyclones attaining category five intensity in the South Indian Ocean is of significance for the forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall and the anticipation of storm damage for the developing economies that characterise the region. Although an increase in tropical cyclone intensity is frequently projected under global climate change scenarios, the dynamics for the South Indian Ocean have remained poorly understood. Notable are early results indicating an increased frequency and poleward migration of these CAT5 storms, concurrent with a poleward migration in the position of the 26.5 °C, 28 °C and 29 °C sea surface temperature isotherms in the South Indian Ocean.Significance:
 
 Category 5 tropical cyclones, the strongest category of storms, have only recently emerged in the South Indian Ocean. Since 1989, their frequency of occurrence has increased. This increase poses a heightened risk of storm damage for the South Indian Ocean Island States and the countries of the southern African subcontinent as a result of the strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges associated with these storms, and the large radial extent at category 5 strength.

The Association of Filaments, Polarity Inversion Lines, and Coronal Hole Properties with the Sunspot Cycle: An Analysis of the McIntosh Database

Abstract Filaments and coronal holes, two principal features observed in the solar corona, are sources of space weather variations. Filament formation is closely associated with polarity inversion lines (PILs) on the solar photosphere which separate positive and negative polarities of the surface magnetic field. The origin of coronal holes is governed by large-scale unipolar magnetic patches on the photosphere from where open magnetic field lines extend to the heliosphere. We study the properties of filaments, PILs, and coronal holes in solar cycles 20, 21, 22, and 23 utilizing the McIntosh archive. We detect a prominent cyclic behavior of filament length, PIL length, and coronal hole area with significant correspondence with the solar magnetic cycle. The spatio-temporal evolution of the geometric centers of filaments shows a butterfly-like structure and distinguishable poleward migration of long filaments during cycle maxima. We identify this rush to the poles of filaments to be co-temporal with the initiation of polar field reversal as gleaned from Mount Wilson and Wilcox Solar Observatory polar field observations, and quantitatively establish their temporal correspondence. We analyze the filament tilt angle distribution to constrain their possible origins. The majority of the filaments exhibit negative and positive tilt angles in the northern and the southern hemispheres, respectively, strongly suggesting that their formation is governed by the overall large-scale magnetic field distribution on the solar photosphere and not by the small-scale intra-active region magnetic field configurations. We also investigate the hemispheric asymmetry in filaments, PILs, and coronal holes. We find that the hemispheric asymmetry in filaments and PILs is positively correlated with sunspot area asymmetry, whereas coronal hole asymmetry is uncorrelated.

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century.

Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring-based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33-45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

Metric-Dependent Tendency of Tropical Belt Width Changes during the Last Glacial Maximum

Motivated by studies of tropical expansion under modern global warming, the behavior of the tropical belt during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) relative to the preindustrial period has been investigated in this study, using simulations from phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) under the framework of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The tropical belt width changes determined by multiple metrics present two opposite tendencies. One refers to the poleward migration of the tropical edge as measured by the steep tropopause gradient and the subtropical jet, and the other suggests that the LGM tropics become narrower as measured by the Hadley cell extent, the eddy-driven jet, and the latitude where precipitation minus evaporation equals zero. The magnitude of such changes widely differs across models and metrics. In absolute terms, the multimodel mean total width changes range from 0.6° to 1.7° among metrics, with contributions predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the two metrics that indicate tropical widening are located in the upper troposphere. Such widening is closely related to the vertical and meridional temperature gradient changes in the subtropical regions. The other metrics are located in the middle and lower troposphere, and their variations are directly or indirectly related to changes in the low-level baroclinicity. The diverse responses of metrics to the LGM boundary conditions suggest that the tropical belt width changes and their climatic impacts are distinguished by the different measurements. The selection of metrics should correspond to the specific tropical properties of concern.

A Recent Reversal in the Poleward Shift of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

AbstractRecent studies have revealed a global, poleward migration trend of tropical cyclones (TCs) in terms of annual‐averaged latitude of lifetime maximum intensity under the global warming. The TCs in the western North Pacific (WNP) make the largest contribution to this trend. One existing hypothesis is that there is a linkage between poleward migration of TCs and anthropogenic forcing. Here we introduce a new measurement, the lifetime‐averaged latitude weighted by TC destructive potential, to detect the meridional migration of the WNP TCs, which is more reliable and meaningful as it considers not only past data uncertainty but also public concerns. Our results show that the trend of WNP TC migration reversed during the recent warming slowing‐down period (after ~1999). Different from the existing hypothesis, it is the change of regional pattern of sea surface temperature that contributes greatly to the meridional migration of WNP TCs.

Incorporating Surface Convection into a 3D Babcock–Leighton Solar Dynamo Model

Abstract The convective flows observed on the photosphere (e.g., supergranulation, granulation) play a key role in the Babcock–Leighton (BL) process to generate large-scale polar fields from sunspot fields. In most surface flux transport (SFT) and BL dynamo models, the dispersal and migration of surface fields are modeled as an effective turbulent diffusion. Recent SFT models have incorporated explicit, realistic convective flows in order to improve the fidelity of convective transport but, to our knowledge, this has not yet been implemented in previous BL models. We present the first kinematic 3D Flux-Transport/BL model to explicitly incorporate realistic convective flows based on solar observations. Though we describe a means to generalize these flows to 3D, we find that the kinematic small-scale dynamo action they produce disrupts the operation of the cyclic dynamo. The cyclic solution is found by limiting the convective flow to act only on the vertical radial component of the magnetic field. The results obtained are generally in good agreement with the observed surface flux evolution and with non-convective models that have a turbulent diffusivity of the order of 3 × 1012 cm2 s−1 (300 km2 s−1). However, we find that the use of a turbulent diffusivity underestimates the dynamo efficiency, producing weaker mean fields and a shorter cycle than in the convective models. Also, the convective models exhibit bands of mixed polarity in the polar regions that have no counterpart in solar observations, and the poleward migration speed of poloidal flux is determined mainly by the meridional flow and the vertical diffusion.

Beyond Capricornia: Tropical Sea Slugs (Gastropoda, Heterobranchia) Extend Their Distributions into the Tasman Sea

There is increasing evidence of poleward migration of a broad range of taxa under the influence of a warming ocean. However, patchy research effort, the lack of pre-existing baseline data, and taxonomic uncertainty for some taxa means that unambiguous interpretation of observations is often difficult. Here, we propose that heterobranch sea slugs provide a useful target group for monitoring shifts in distribution. As many sea slugs are highly colourful, popular with underwater photographers and rock-pool ramblers, and found in accessible habitats, they provide an ideal target for citizen scientist programs, such as the Sea Slug Census. This maximises our ability to rapidly gain usable diversity and distributional data. Here, we review records of recent range extensions by tropical species into the subtropical and temperate waters of eastern Australia and document, for the first time in Australian waters, observations of three tropical species of sea slug as well as range extensions for a further six to various locations in the Tasman Sea.

Sensitivity Experiments on the Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific under Warming Ocean Conditions

Recent studies found that in the context of global warming, the observed tropical cyclones (TCs) exhibit significant poleward migration trend in terms of the mean latitude where TCs reach their lifetime-maximum intensity in the western North Pacific (WNP). This poleward migration of TC tracks can be attributed to not only anthropogenic forcing (e.g., continuous increase of sea surface temperature (SST)), but also impacts of other factors (e.g., natural variability). In the present study, to eliminate the impacts of other factors and thus focus on the impact of unvaried SST on climatological WNP TC tracks, the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to conduct a suite of idealized sensitivity experiments with increased SST. Comparisons among the results of these experiments show the possible changes in climatological TC track, TC track density, and types of TC track in the context of SST increase. The results demonstrate that under the warmer SST conditions, the climatological mean TC track systematically shifts poleward significantly in the WNP, which is consistent with the previous studies. Meanwhile, the ocean warming also leads to the decreased (increased) destructive potential of TCs in low (middle) latitudes, and thus northward migration of the region where TCs have the largest impact. Further results imply the possibility that under the ocean warming, the percentage of TCs with westward/northwestward tracks decreases/increases distinctly.

Synoptic maps in three wavelengths of the Chromospheric Telescope

Abstracthe Chromospheric Telescope (ChroTel) observes the entire solar disk since 2011 in three different chromospheric wavelengths: Hα, Ca ii K, and He i. The instrument records full-disk images of the Sun every three minutes in these different spectral ranges. The ChroTel observations cover the rising and decaying phase of solar cycle 24. We started analyzing the ChroTel time-series and created synoptic maps of the entire observational period in all three wavelength bands. The maps will be used to analyze the poleward migration of quiet-Sun filaments in solar cycle 24.

Paleobotany and Global Change: Important Lessons for Species to Biomes from Vegetation Responses to Past Global Change.

Human carbon use during the next century will lead to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO2) that have been unprecedented for the past 50-100+ million years according to fossil plant-based CO2 estimates. The paleobotanical record of plants offers key insights into vegetation responses to past global change, including suitable analogs for Earth's climatic future. Past global warming events have resulted in transient poleward migration at rates that are equivalent to the lowest climate velocities required for current taxa to keep pace with climate change. Paleobiome reconstructions suggest that the current tundra biome is the biome most threatened by global warming. The common occurrence of paleoforests at high polar latitudes when pCO2 was above 500 ppm suggests that the advance of woody shrub and tree taxa into tundra environments may be inevitable. Fossil pollen studies demonstrate the resilience of wet tropical forests to global change up to 700 ppm CO2, contrary to modeled predictions of the future. The paleobotanical record also demonstrates a high capacity for functional trait evolution as an additional strategy to migration and maintenance of a species' climate envelope in response to global change.

What Has Controlled the Poleward Migration of Annual Averaged Location of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime Maximum Intensity Over the Western North Pacific Since 1961?

AbstractThe long‐term tendency of the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) over the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated in this study. Despite the post‐1961 significant poleward shift in the annual mean LMI latitude, the migration rate is nonuniform on decadal timescales, having an insignificant trend and a significant increasing trend before and after 1980, respectively. Interdecadal fluctuations of TC genesis latitude (φG) as well as increases in latitudinal distance between genesis position and LMI location (Δφ) are both responsible for the observed LMI latitude trends. The former is linked to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which favors TCs forming in the northwestern (southeastern) quadrant of the WNP in negative (positive) IPO phases. The latter primarily results from the continuous warming of WNP sea surface temperature, which further increases the maximum potential intensity and extends the region favorable for TC development to higher latitudes.

Long-term Study of the Solar Filaments from the Synoptic Maps as Derived from Spectroheliograms of the Kodaikanal Observatory

Abstract The century long (1914–2007) (656.28 nm) spectroheliograms from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KSO) have been recently digitized. Using these newly calibrated, processed images we study the evolution of dark elongated on-disk structures called filaments, which are potential representatives of magnetic activities on the Sun. To our knowledge, this is the oldest uniform digitized data set with daily images available today in . We generate Carrington maps for the entire time duration and try to find the correlations with maps of the same Carrington rotation from the Ca ii K KSO data. Filaments are segmented from the Carrington maps using a semi-automated technique and are studied individually to extract their centroids and tilts. We plot the time-latitude distribution of the filament centroids, producing a butterfly diagram which clearly shows the presence of poleward migration. We separate polar filaments for each cycle and try to estimate the delay between the polar filament number cycle and the sunspot number cycle peaks. We correlate this delay with the delay between polar reversal and sunspot number maxima. This provides new insight on the role of polar filaments on polar reversal.

Phenological and distributional shifts in ichthyoplankton associated with recent warming in the northeast Pacific Ocean.

Understanding changes in the migratory and reproductive phenology of fish stocks in relation to climate change is critical for accurate ecosystem-based fisheries management. Relocation and changes in timing of reproduction can have dramatic effects upon the success of fish populations and throughout the food web. During anomalously warm conditions (1-4°C above normal) in the northeast Pacific Ocean during 2015-2016, we documented shifts in timing and spawning location of several pelagic fish stocks based on larval fish samples. Total larval concentrations in the northern California Current (NCC) during winter (January-March) 2015 and 2016 were the highest observed since annual collections first occurred in 1998, primarily due to increased abundances of Engraulis mordax (northern anchovy) and Sardinops sagax (Pacific sardine) larvae, which are normally summer spawning species in this region. Sardinops sagax and Merluccius productus (Pacific hake) exhibited an unprecedented early and northward spawning expansion during 2015-16. In addition, spawning duration was greatly increased for E.mordax, as the presence of larvae was observed throughout the majority of 2015-16, indicating prolonged and nearly continuous spawning of adults throughout the warm period. Larvae from all three of these species have never before been collected in the NCC as early in the year. In addition, other southern species were collected in the NCC during this period. This suggests that the spawning phenology and distribution of several ecologically and commercially important fish species dramatically and rapidly changed in response to the warming conditions occurring in 2014-2016, and could be an indication of future conditions under projected climate change. Changes in spawning timing and poleward migration of fish populations due to warmer ocean conditions or global climate change will negatively impact areas that were historically dependent on these fish, and change the food web structure of the areas that the fish move into with unforeseen consequences.

Weak Tropical Cyclones Dominate the Poleward Migration of the Annual Mean Location of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones since 1980

The poleward migration of the annual mean location of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has been identified in the major TC basins of the globe over the past 30 years, which is particularly robust over the western North Pacific (WNP). This study has revealed that this poleward migration consists mainly of weak TCs (with maximum sustained surface wind speed less than 33 m s−1) over the WNP. Results show that the location of LMI of weak TCs has migrated about 1° latitude poleward per decade since 1980, while such a trend is considerably smaller for intense TCs. This is found to be linked to a significant decreasing trend of TC genesis in the southern WNP and a significant increasing trend in the northwestern WNP over the past 30 years. It is shown that the greater sea surface temperature (SST) warming at higher latitudes associated with global warming and its associated changes in the large-scale circulation favor more TCs to form in the northern WNP and fewer but stronger TCs to form in the southern WNP.

Tropical semi-arid regions expanding over temperate latitudes under climate change

Highly populated, water-limited and warm drylands are challenging areas for development and are expected to expand overall under several scenarios of climate change. Here, we adopt a bioclimatic approach based on the Köppen classification to focus on the evolution of warm semi-arid regions over the projected twenty-first century, following three socio-economic scenarios and 12 global climate models from the last IPCC exercise (CMIP5). We show that a global expansion of this climatic domain has already started according to climate observations in the twentieth century (about + 13% of surface increase, i.e. from 6 to 7% of the global land surface). Models project that this expansion will continue throughout the twenty-first century, whatever the scenario: for the most dramatic one (RCP 8.5), the share of the total land surface occupied by warm semi-arid surfaces is about 38% higher in 2100 compared to the present (from ∼ 7 to ∼ 9% of the global land surface). This expansion will essentially take place outside of the tropical belt, showing a poleward migration as large as 11∘ of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is linearly correlated with the projected future global warming (about 853 millions km2 per degree of warming for RCP 8.5). Different types of climate class transitions and their associated mechanisms are discussed.

The Role of Natural Climate Variability in Recent Tropical Expansion

Observations show the tropical belt has widened over the past few decades, a phenomenon associated with poleward migration of subtropical dry zones and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Coupled climate models also simulate tropical belt widening, but less so than observed. Reasons for this discrepancy, and the mechanisms driving the expansion remain uncertain. Here, the role of unforced, natural climate variability—particularly natural sea surface temperature (SST) variability—in recent tropical widening is shown. Compared to coupled ocean–atmosphere models, atmosphere-only simulations driven by observed SSTs consistently lead to larger rates of tropical widening, especially in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), highlighting the importance of recent SST evolution. Assuming the ensemble mean SSTs from historical simulations accurately represent the externally forced response, the observed SSTs can be decomposed into a forced and an unforced component. Targeted simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), show that natural SST variability accounts for nearly all of the widening associated with recent SST evolution. This is consistent with the similarity of the unforced SSTs to the observed SSTs, both of which resemble a cold El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Pacific decadal oscillation (ENSO/PDO)-like SST pattern, which is associated with a wider tropical belt. Moreover, CAM5 coupled simulations with observed central to eastern tropical Pacific SSTs yield more than double the rate of widening compared to analogous simulations without prescribed tropical Pacific SSTs and reproduce the magnitude of tropical widening in atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the bulk of recent tropical widening, particularly in the NH, is due to unforced, natural SST variability, primarily related to recent ENSO/PDO variability.

Thermodynamic and dynamic influences in the Far East‐Okhotsk region on stagnant Meiyu‐Baiu

AbstractWesterly perturbation is enlarged over the Far East‐Okhotsk region in late June and early July and is associated with the largest land‐sea heating contrast surrounding the Sea of Okhotsk. The corresponding characteristics in the lower troposphere are southward deepening of the cold low over northeastern China, and intensification of the Okhotsk high. Coincidentally, the Meiyu‐Baiu coupled with the western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical high is nearly stagnant during this period. By simulations using a global climate model with an intensified Okhotsk surface high in response to cooling Sea of Okhotsk, it is suggested that the enhanced thermal contrast over the Far East‐Okhotsk region can generate an obstacle to Meiyu‐Baiu poleward migration. Corresponding to the intensified Okhotsk high, the WNP subtropical high is strengthened by the high ridge over Taiwan. The East Asian midlatitude westerly jet stream in the northern flank of the WNP subtropical high also strengthens; the consequently enhanced midtropospheric warm temperature advection can regulate the latitude position of the Meiyu‐Baiu. The wave source generated in the upper troposphere is located over the midlatitude WNP (anomalous cyclone) bordering the Sea of Okhotsk, whereas that in the lower troposphere is related to the strengthened westerly in the northern WNP subtropical high. The wave activity propagation consistently indicates the strengthening and equatorward confinement of the westerly jet. Therefore, the intensified Okhotsk high and enlarged westerly perturbation beginning in late June are suggested as an inherently geographic limit of the Far East‐Okhotsk region in regard to Meiyu‐Baiu migration.

The reversed and normal flux contributions to axial dipole decay for 1880–2015

The axial dipole component of Earth’s internal magnetic field has been weakening since at least 1840, an effect widely believed to be attributed to the evolution of reversed flux patches (RFPs). These are regions on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) where the sign of radial flux deviates from that of the dominant sign of hemispheric radial flux. We study dipole change over the past 135years using the field models gufm1, COV-OBS.x1 and CHAOS-6; we examine the impact of the choice of magnetic equator on the identification of reversed flux, the contribution of reversed and normal flux to axial dipole decay, and how reversed and normal field evolution has influenced the axial dipole. We show that a magnetic equator defined as a null-flux curve of the magnetic field truncated at spherical harmonic degree 3 allows us to robustly identify reversed flux, which we demonstrate is a feature of at least degree 4 or 5. Additionally, our results indicate that the evolution of reversed flux accounts for approximately two-thirds of the decay of the axial dipole, while one third of the decay is attributed to the evolution of the normal field. We find that the decay of the axial dipole over the 20th century is associated with both the expansion and poleward migration of reversed flux patches. In contrast to this centennial evolution, changes in the structure of secular variation since epoch 2000 indicate that poleward migration currently plays a much reduced role in the ongoing dipole decay.

Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis?

A recent study showed that the global average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve their lifetime-maximum intensity has been migrating poleward at a rate of about one-half degree of latitude per decade over the last 30 years in each hemisphere. However, it does not answer a critical question: is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone lifetime-maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis? In this study we will examine this question. First we analyze changes in the environmental variables associated with tropical cyclone genesis, namely entropy deficit, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, vorticity, skin temperature and specific humidity at 500 hPa in reanalysis datasets between 1980 and 2013. Then, a selection of these variables is combined into two tropical cyclone genesis indices that empirically relate tropical cyclone genesis to large-scale variables. We find a shift toward greater (smaller) average potential number of genesis at higher (lower) latitudes over most regions of the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with a migration of tropical cyclone genesis towards higher latitudes. We then examine the global best track archive and find coherent and significant poleward shifts in mean genesis position over the Pacific Ocean basins.

Climatology of Philippine tropical cyclone activity: 1945–2011

ABSTRACTThe Philippine region occupies the southwestern western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean, between 5°–25°N and 115°–135°E. About 70% of WNP tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in or entered the Philippine region during 1945–2011. Here, a climatology of Philippine TC metrics is developed, including mean annual frequencies, landfalls, TC days, season lengths, season earliest and latest start and end dates, genesis locations, and tracks. Two distinct TC seasons, the less active season (LAS; 1 January–31 May) and more active season (MAS; 1 June–31 December), are evident. Philippine TC annual median LAS frequency is 2 [interquartile range (IQR) is 2], and median landfalling frequency is 1. The annual median MAS frequency is 15 (IQR is 4.5), and median landfalling frequency is 6. About 55% of Philippine TCs reach typhoon intensity. A quiescent (TC‐free) period occurs between LAS and MAS, ranging from 2 days to 5 months (median 1.2 months) for LAS to MAS transitions, and 6 days to 7 months (median 2.85 months) for MAS to LAS transitions. The interannual variability of the annual average lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) for all TCs and landfalling TCs decreased slightly during the satellite era (the years since 1980). The TC annual average latitude of LMI in the satellite era exhibits a poleward migration; however, for landfalling TCs it is equatorward.Wavelet analysis shows El Niño Southern Oscillation as the dominant mode affecting Philippine TCs, consistent with other studies. The wavelet analysis also indicates possible decadal and multi‐decadal modes. In El Niño years, TCs frequently recurve or decay before reaching the Philippine region, producing below normal numbers and landfalls in LAS and MAS. In La Niña years, TC numbers and landfalls are below normal in January–March and July–September, but above normal in April–June and October–December.The climatology developed here has social and economic relevance: allowing planning, providing early risk assessment, and mitigating impacts through timely preparation and management.