Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Research Articles

Indonesia’s Potential Trade Flow to EAEU Countries: The Gravity Model Approach

This research aims to examine the Indonesia’s potential trade flow to EAEU countries using Augmented Gravity Model with Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator, revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, and constant market share analysis (CMSA) index on trade flows data for the period 2002-2022. The results indicates that trade relation between Indonesia and EAEU countries align with Heckscher-Ohlin Theory of trade, which states that dissimilar countries tend to trade more. Furthermore, the finding emphasizes the importance of Indonesia-EAEU preferential trade agreement to reduce or eliminate tariffs which otherwise will increase trade between both parties.

Do institutions matter for agri-food imports and exports between China and Africa? A gravity model analysis

This paper aims to study the role of institutional quality on agri-food trade (import and export) between China and 48 African countries during the 2001-2021 period. The gravity model of trade was employed by estimating the Generalised Least Square (GLS) and the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimators, which include zero trade flows for panel data. The main results show that voice and accountability, control of corruption, and the rule of law all enhance agri-food trade flows. While political instability encourages agri-food exports to China. In addition, the economic size of China, the trade cost (distance), and the population of African countries also encourage agri-food trade between China and African economies. Moreover, access to the sea, exchange rate policy, and the economic size of African nations deplete China’s agri-food imports from Africa. We showed the mechanism through which each institutional variable affects China’s agri-food trade flows to African nations.

Impact of Anti-Dumping on Chinese Exports to Countries in ASEAN Plus 6

ABSTRACT Concerns about China’s excessive production capacity prompt a closer examination of Anti-dumping Duties (ADs) as a tool for managing trade imbalances. Within the ASEAN region, ASEAN plus 6 countries, especially India, are emerging as alternatives to China in global value chains. These countries import a broad range of products from China, including intermediate goods, making it vital to analyze the effects of ADs on these imports. Using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method, which effectively handles zero trade flows, heteroskedasticity, and endogeneity, this study explores the use of ADs beyond traditional major economies like the US and EU, focusing on their adoption by less economically developed countries. The findings show that ADs significantly curtail Chinese exports, potentially hindering stronger cooperation within ASEAN plus 6 and slowing regional trade dynamics. This research serves as a critical benchmark for assessing China’s strategic role in global economic leadership, viewed with reservations by several countries, including the US. It emphasizes the need to further explore China’s interaction with ASEAN plus 6 partner countries, particularly concerning trade remedy such as ADs and their impact on regional integration.

A gravity model analysis of trade regulations on wood products exports: Evidence from Cameroon, Ghana, and the republic of Congo

The study assesses the impact of the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade Voluntary Partnership Agreement (FLEGT VPA) and the Lacey Act Amendment (LAA) on the export quantities of wood products from Cameroon, Ghana and the Republic of Congo using the panel gravity Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique. The results indicate that FLEGT VPA had a negative and significant impact on industrial roundwood export quantity from all three countries. Similarly, its effects on the export of sawnwood and wood-based panels are also negative, except for Cameroon. On the other hand, the impact of LAA appears to be mixed. These results are validated by applying an alternative Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error estimation method.

Indirect channel of trade agreements in deepening global value chains

AbstractPreferential trade agreements (PTAs) between trading partners are known to have positive impact on the expanding and deepening of global value chain integration due to lower trade and investment barriers. Less is known, however, is if other PTAs of PTA partners have any impact on the value‐added trade linkages of the direct PTA partners concerned. Based on compositive indicators measuring the breadth and depth of PTAs from 2007 to 2018 and using Multiregional Input–Output Table database covering 62 countries and 35 sectors and the Content of Deep Trade Agreements database, this paper estimates the multiplicative form of the constant‐elasticity augmented gravity equation model by a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. This study shows that indirect impact of the deepening of trade agreements of a country's PTA partner exerts positive, significant impact on value‐added exports of a country. Both backward and forward linkages of a country measured by various decomposition of valued added exports indicate this indirect channel of value chain deepening effect even outweighs the direct impact from the deepening of PTAs between direct trading partners with significant policy implications in formulating PTA strategies.

Trade Diversion effects of China`s Vat Export Rebates

AbstractThe utilization of value-added tax (VAT) export rebates serves as a key component of Chinese trade policy. While existing literature extensively demonstrates the positive impact of these rebates on Chinese exports, the potential negative repercussions for global trade, widely debated in the media, have remained relatively unexplored. This study assesses the trade diversion effects of China's VAT rebates within a "four-way" fixed effects Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood structural gravity framework spanning 75 countries over the period 2004–2018. The results indicate that, on average, a 1% increase in the rebate leads to a 2.62% reduction in third-country exports. The impact varies significantly at the country level. Wealthier nations with greater trade liberalization and diversified exports at the intensive margin are less susceptible to the effects of China’s export rebate policy. Additionally, there is evidence that countries exporting higher-quality goods experience more significant negative effects. Finally, the negative effects are driven by machinery and equipment sector and intensive margin.

Towards a cleaner and sustainable Europe and Central Asia: An investigation of the logistics‐environment nexus

AbstractThe logistics industry is the backbone of global trade and is crucial for the attainment of economic progress across the world. However, the industry involves activities that increase the consumption of energy resources including fossil fuels, which harms the environment. Thus, with a special focus on Europe and Central Asia, this study explores the logistics‐environment by evaluating the impact of logistics performance (LP) on environmental performance (EP) while controlling for key macroeconomic indicators such as income, trade openness, foreign direct investment, and industrialization. The motivation for this study is derived from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs‐11 and 13) which highlight sustainability and climate change mitigation. Using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood with high‐dimensional fixed effects (PPMLHDFE) for 47 European and Central Asian countries over the period 2007–2018, the findings revealed that the overall logistic performance, and some of its components—customs, trade, and transport infrastructure, and tracing and tracking have a significant positive impact on the overall EP, environmental health, and ecosystem vitality. Additionally, the study confirms the detrimental effects of economic growth, trade, and industrialization on environmental quality and health from logistics and supply chain management (SCM) perspectives. Further policy caveats and suggestions are elucidated in the concluding section.

The more the better? How degree programs’ variety affects university students’ churn risk

Students’ intra- and, especially, inter-degree relocation poses significant challenges that tertiary education systems and universities must address to identify the best possible solutions for its reduction. Indeed, this phenomenon has a major impact on several aspects, from the reallocation of financial resources to factors related to the organization of spaces and activities, as well as in terms of human and social capital. Moreover, it is much more challenging when involving different universities in different geographical areas. This paper addresses the issue of churn risk among students and its relationship with the institutions’ educational offerings, in terms of degree programs, by accounting for the impact of the characteristics of both universities and hosting areas. In particular, the analysis relies on Italian administrative data regarding students who decide to change university or field of study when enrolling in their second year of career. The results obtained performing the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimation show that the variety and the dimension of universities’ services supply contribute to reducing students’ churn risks and are positively associated with universities’ retention rates.

Pemodelan Pengaruh Sektor Keuangan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia

The financial sector has a major influence on economic growth in Indonesia. Good modeling influences the accuracy of economic growth predictions and has an impact on the financial sector. Several models have been introduced to analyze the relationship between the two, but it is necessary to test which of these models is most appropriate. This research aims to find the best model of the financial sector's influence on economic growth in Indonesia. Three models were compared so that the best model was selected, namely the Bayesian Vector Autocorrelation (BVAR), Linear Regression, and Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) models. The comparison method was carried out to determine the best model from the third model using various criteria, and then an in-depth study of the best model was carried out by considering various diagnostic tests and stability tests. The analysis results show that the BVAR (2) model is the best model among the three existing models. However, some specific analysis results in the regression analysis model (such as the negative impact on CPS) and the PPML model (such as the high R-square) can be taken into consideration by policyholders in the financial sector in determining policies related to these areas for economic growth.

Pemodelan Pengaruh Sektor Keuangan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia

The financial sector has a major influence on economic growth in Indonesia. Good modeling influences the accuracy of economic growth predictions and has an impact on the financial sector. Several models have been introduced to analyze the relationship between the two, but it is necessary to test which of these models is most appropriate. This research aims to find the best model of the financial sector's influence on economic growth in Indonesia. Three models were compared so that the best model was selected, namely the Bayesian Vector Autocorrelation (BVAR), Linear Regression, and Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) models. The comparison method was carried out to determine the best model from the third model using various criteria, and then an in-depth study of the best model was carried out by considering various diagnostic tests and stability tests. The analysis results show that the BVAR (2) model is the best model among the three existing models. However, some specific analysis results in the regression analysis model (such as the negative impact on CPS) and the PPML model (such as the high R-square) can be taken into consideration by policyholders in the financial sector in determining policies related to these areas for economic growth.

Assessing the impact of non-tariff measures on Sri Lankan mango exports: insights, challenges, and recommendations

IntroductionWith the increase in non-tariff measures (NTMs) in recent years, understanding their impact on trade policies and agricultural exports is of utmost importance for countries like Sri Lanka, where the proliferation of NTMs has posed substantial impediments to its mango export industry. However, studying NTMs can be challenging due to their complex nature, diverse range, and limited information availability.MethodsThis research aims to investigate the significant effect of NTMs on Sri Lankan mango exports, identify the pivotal drivers influencing mango exports, and analyze the performance of mango exports in Sri Lanka. This study utilized a panel dataset of 16 importing countries spanning the period from 2000 to 2021. The primary focus was on examining NTM-related challenges and obstacles faced by the mango export industry in Sri Lanka. The identification and quantification of these obstacles were achieved through a multifaceted approach in which assessment of NTM-related rejections, both domestic and overseas, evaluation of NTM incidences using frequency and coverage ratio measures, and the deployment of various gravity model equations to quantify the effect of NTMs were taken into consideration. Probit, Ordinary Least Square, Random Effects, and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimation techniques were utilized for data analysis.ResultsThe findings indicate a significant inverse correlation between the increase in the total count of NTMs and Sri Lankan mango exports if the country aims to export more mangoes to relevant markets, while Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS), Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), and Pre-shipment Inspection (PSI) contributed to increased mango exports. Among other explanatory variables, the GDP of both importing and exporting countries had a positive influence on Sri Lankan mango exports. Surprisingly, the distance to the importing country had no significant effect, though it shows a negative sign.DiscussionThis study provides valuable insights into the impact of NTMs on Sri Lankan mango exports. It highlights the considerable influence of NTMs on the overall fresh fruit export sector. We recommend proactively aligning internal quality testing regulations with the standards required by destination countries to promote future expansion.

Information communication technology and manufacturing industry exports based on technology intensity in OECD and non-OECD countries

Studies on the effect of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on the export of the manufacturing industry, as disaggregated into the low-, medium-, and high-technology intensity, were lacking. However, the trade impact of ICT is mixed and relies on countries’ development and adoption of technology. To this end, this study explicitly contributes to this strand of literature. By using some key and popular ICT indicators we examined the comparative influence of ICT on the manufacturing industry exports defined by their technology intensity/adoption in OECD and non-OECD countries. A panel data technique with the PPML (Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood) covering the period 2010–2018 was applied for the analysis. Our empirical strategy indicates that internet use only promotes manufacturing exports of high-technology intensity in OECD countries. Low-technology intensity manufacturing exports were negatively affected by an increase in the use of the internet in all the samples of non-OECD and OECD economies. Except for high-technology, an increase in mobile phone subscribers is associated with increased manufacturing exports in all categories of industries and all sample countries. Broadband subscriptions only positively affect exports of low-technology intensity in OECD countries and negatively affect exports of medium-technology in non-OECD countries. The economic complexity index shows a positive influence on exports in OECD and non-OECD countries except for low-technology intensity. Human capital has been found to influence manufacturing exports in OECD countries and reduce exports in non-OECD countries. In both the OECD and non-OECD countries, positive and significant effects of GDP and trade were observed in all categories of technology adoption. These findings imply that in OECD and non-OECD countries ICT is an important aspect worth considering in trade policy making due to its significant influence on exports. ICT services need to be checked by the government to ensure quality, efficient, and effective delivery for better export. Findings also support the practical significance of ICT especially in developing OECD countries.

Economic geography of talent migration and agglomeration in China: A dual-driver framework

The long-standing debate on the role of economic factors and amenities on talent migration and redistribution foreshadows the importance of spatial economic theoretical thinking in resolving the effects of duality, a point yet to be conclusively addressed in the existing literature. Situated within the framework of new economic geography (NEG), this article introduces an innovative theoretical model – the Dual-Driver (DD) framework– aiming at comprehending the nuanced dual impact of economic and amenity factors on talent movements between regions. While the DD framework retains the mechanisms of increasing returns to scale, iceberg transportation cost, and talent agglomeration presented in the NEG models, it depicts, for the first time, the self-reinforcing mechanisms between non-traded goods (i.e., amenities) and talent agglomeration. The model describes a logic of talent movements influenced by the dual drivers of regional economic factors (nominal wage, the diversity of local manufacturing products) and amenities (the diversity and quality of amenities, transfer payment for talent), among which the economic effects play a predominant role versus the amenity effects. Empirical evidence has been given by the geographical analysis of China's internal talent migration between 2000 and 2015 and the corresponding econometric analysis using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation. Our findings furnish a theoretical perspective for comprehending talent geography and offer policy insights into China's logic of talent migration.

Do export responses to exchange rate movements differ in micro export flows?

This paper empirically examines how exports respond to exchange rate movements (exchange rate and exchange rate volatility) at the micro and macro levels using Turkey’s bilateral export data with 65 partner countries. Panel data contaninig 65 cross-sectional dimensions and 60 monthly time series dimensions from 2018:01 to 2022:12 are used. The empirical results of the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique show that the negative effect of exchange rate volatility on micro export flows is amplified. Moreover, the potential positive effect of the exchange rate on micro export flows is weaker. Our findings are robust against the alternative method of exchange rate volatility and nominal exchange rate volatility. Our results are also intact under alternative robustness tests. The paper provides notable policy implications. Policymakers should be aware of the potential structural differences between micro and macro exports. Therefore, policymakers should also consider other aspects such as cross-border e-commerce when formulating economic policies on microexports.

Institutional quality and emigration nexus: Empirical evidence from Türkiye

AbstractThis study attempts to fill an important gap in the empirical literature by investigating the impact of institutional quality in destination countries on emigrants from Türkiye using bilateral migration data from 2010 through 2020. For this purpose, the study builds an augmented gravity model, including economic, geographic, and cultural variables in an exponential form and estimates it by the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method. Empirical results significantly confirm the pulling role of strong institutions in destination countries for emigrants from Türkiye since all institutional quality indicators are positively associated with emigrant movements, albeit just one of them, regulatory quality, is statistically insignificant. Among indicators of institutional quality, the most pulling ones for emigrants are voice and accountability and the rule of law, followed by government effectiveness, control of corruption, and political stability and absence of violence, respectively. Overall results indicate that institutions are front‐line players in the emigrants' migration decision and destination choice process. In this context, policy‐makers in both Türkiye and the destination country may implement an institutional policy considering the outcomes stemming from migration movements.

Unravelling open innovation determinants and firm performance relationships in CEE and SEE countries

Purpose Open innovation (OI), by now one of the major concepts for the analysis of innovation, is seen as a methodology for collaboratively designing and implementing solutions by engaging stakeholders in an iterative and inclusive service design process. This paper aims to empirically investigate OI capacities, defined as a cooperative, knowledge-sharing innovation ecosystem, and to explore how it can lead to improved performance of firms in Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Southeastern European (SEE) countries.Design/methodology/approach The study builds on the World Bank/European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD’s) Business Environment Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) dataset for 2009, 2013 and 2019. Primarily, the research model was estimated using log-transformed ordinary least squares (OLS). Taking into consideration that this method might produce substantial bias, yielding misleading inferences, this study is fitting Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimators with robust standard errors and instrumental variable/generalized method of moments estimation (IV/GMM) approach for comparative results. Secondarily, the research model was tested using structural equation modelling (SEM) to investigate the relationship between five OI capacities and firm performance.Findings The findings indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between most OI capacities and firm performance, except for innovation, which did not show a statistically significant relationship with firm performance. Specifically, research and development (R&D), knowledge and coopetition are statistically significant and positively associated with firm performance, whereas transformation is statistically significant but negatively associated with firm performance. The IV/GMM estimations’ findings support the view that the firm performance is significantly affected by OI capacities, together with some control variables such as size, age, foreign ownership and year dummy to have a significant impact on firm performance.Originality/value This paper fills an identified gap in the literature by investigating the impact of OI on firm performance executed in the specific CEE and SEE country context.

Effects of logistics performance on Vietnam’s exports: a quantitative analysis using the PPML method

This study aims to analyze the effects of logistics performance on Vietnam’s exports at both the overall level and in specific aspects. We investigate the linkage between logistics performance and Vietnam’s exports based on a panel of bilateral trade from Vietnam to 158 trading partners from 2007 to 2018. Using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method, the positive and significant effects of Vietnam’s and importing countries’ logistics performance on exports are identified. Our estimates become highly consistent after controlling for both time-specific effects and time-invariant country-fixed effects and remain robust to changes in the model specification, contributing reliable empirical evidence to the literature. Considering the specific aspects of logistics performance, we find the significant roles of the ability to track and trace consignments, the quality of logistics services, the customs clearance efficiency, and the timeliness of shipments in trade. From Vietnam’s perspective, improvements in tracking and tracing ability and timeliness can enhance exports to other countries, with larger effects than those of trading partners. Based on these findings, this study provides evidence for policymakers to effectively enhance trade with other countries by developing the national logistics system alongside further logistics cooperation with trading partners and with a greater focus on tracking and tracing ability and timeliness.

How Social Networks Shape Refugee Movements in Wartime: Evidence from the Russian Attack on Ukraine

This article analyzes the key factors guiding the destination choice of Ukrainian refugees in the EU between March and December 2022 in the framework of the activation of the Temporary Protection Directive. To this end, it specifies a migration model, computed for the whole period and two subperiods (March–May and June–December), that captures the influence of social networks. Furthermore, our migration model makes a distinction for the first time between prewar migrant communities and the new social networks that are emerging in wartime circumstances. The estimation of the model, using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), confirmed the importance of both types of social networks in explaining refugees’ choice of destination. The results also revealed that some economic variables (expected earnings and the size of the informal sector) influenced the location choice of refugees since the outbreak of the war, while other socioeconomic and political factors (risk of social exclusion, anti-immigration sentiment, and rule of law) only did so after a few months, when it became increasingly self-evident that the war was going on for a long time.

Does financial development and institutional quality matter in South-South Trade? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This study re-evaluates the determinants of international trade in the global south, focusing on intra- and extra-SSA trade while considering financial development and institutional quality as additional predictors. It also examines whether these factors differ for south-south and north–south trade ties. We used a 22-years (ranging from 2000 to 2021) panel of 98 countries (41 from the SSA and the remaining from the ROW). A panel gravity model with Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation is used for the analysis. The results show that financial development in origin and destination countries boosts intra-trade in SSA countries, and the developed financial sector of the destination countries contributes to both intra-bloc and international trade. Financial development of exporting countries also spurs intra-bloc trade in SSA countries and the global south. In addition, apart from common expectations, the institutional quality of exporting countries plays a deterrent role, while the institutional quality of destination countries plays a positive and significant role in trade in the global south. We identified the interaction term for financial development and institutional quality of the exporting countries with a significant and positive coefficient for the global south and the global north, and null for intra-SSA trade. For destination countries, it becomes significantly positive with SSA and the global south but negative with the global north. The findings suggest that as part of the policy measures to boost intra-bloc trade in SSA and the global south, ensuring financial development needs better emphasis.

Deep trade agreements and services trade: An analysis based on service trade provisions

AbstractOur paper builds a novel panel data sourced from the Regional Trade Agreements Database and Database on International Trade in Services Statistics (ITSS) to explore the heterogeneous effects of service trade agreements on services trade. Then we employ a gravity model with the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation and obtain the following findings: First, both general service trade agreements and deep service trade agreements promote services trade. Yet, deep trade agreements have a higher trade‐expansion effect (roughly 21.53%) on services trade compared to general ones (16.9%). Next, based on the content of trade‐related provisions, we find provisions of rights of non‐establishment and natural person movement largely increase the services trade, while review provisions do not have a significant impact on services trade. Surprisingly, provisions with MFN status even exhibit a negative relationship with services trade. Third, with whom you sign the agreements matters. Deep trade agreements exert a positive and significant impact on services trade between high‐income countries (NN), low‐income countries (SS) and high‐ to low‐income countries (NS), but are insignificant between low‐ to high‐income countries (SN). Four, emerging regions, including China, may benefit more from deep trade agreements. As indicated by propensity score matching, deep trade agreements reduce service trade costs and improve the business environment more effectively than GTAs. Our empirical results are robust after controlling for the endogeneity of DTAs and GTAs. Our findings provide direct evidence for the role of deep service trade agreements in fostering international economic integration.