Poisson Analysis Research Articles

Developmental Change in Adolescent Delinquency: Modeling Time-Varying Effects of a Preventative Intervention and GABRA2 Halpotype Linked to Alcohol Use.

Better integrating human developmental factors in genomic research is part of a set of next steps for testing gene-by-environment interaction hypotheses. This study adds to this work by extending prior research using time-varying effect modeling (TVEM) to evaluate the longitudinal associations between the PROSPER preventive intervention delivery system, a GABRA2 haplotype linked to alcohol use, and their interaction on adolescent delinquency. Logistic and Poisson analyses on eight waves of data spanning ages 11 to 19 (60% female, 90% Caucasian) showed the intervention reduced delinquency from ages 13 to 16. Moreover, interaction analysis revealed that the effect of the multicomponent intervention was significantly greater for T-allele carriers of the GABRA2 SNP rs279845, but only during the 13 to 16 age period. The results are discussed in terms of adolescent delinquency normativeness, implications for preventive intervention research, and the utility of incorporating development in GxE research.

The effect of playing status, maturity status, and playing position on the development of match skills in elite youth football players aged 11–18 years: A mixed-longitudinal study

This mixed-longitudinal study examined the development of match skills in elite male youth footballers (aged 11–18 years), while considering the effect of playing status, maturity status, and playing position. Across two seasons, 126 elite male youth footballers were assessed in 1–10 competitive matches (401 player-matches). For each match, the on-the-ball actions of each player were recorded using a notation system. The match skills observed were frequencies of successful passes, on-target shots, dribbles, crosses, clearances, and tackles/blocks/interceptions. Multilevel Poisson analysis was used to model the development of players, with regard to each match skill. Modelling revealed significant (p < .05) age-related changes in the frequency of several match skills. That is, dribbles increased, on-target shots, crosses and tackles/blocks/interceptions decreased, whereas changes in successful passes were position-specific. Players retained by an academy performed more dribbles compared to released players (p < .05) (e.g. retained vs. released 18-year-old centre forward = 4.1 vs. 2.0 dribbles per hour), and retained defenders performed more tackles/blocks/interceptions than released defenders (p < .05) (e.g. retained vs. released 18-year-old, on-time maturing centre back = 12.5 vs. 10.2 tackles/blocks/interceptions per hour). Moreover, compared to on-time maturing players, early maturing players performed more tackles/blocks/interceptions (p < .05) (e.g. on-time vs. early maturing retained 18-year-old centre back = 12.5 vs. 15.2 tackles/blocks/interceptions per hour). Playing position affected all match skills (p < .05). The developmental profiles of match skills presented here may support experts in identifying and developing talented footballers across a wide age range, while considering the influence of maturity status and playing position.

Association of breastfeeding and malocclusion in 5-year-old children: Multilevel approach.

Breastfeeding plays an important role in child health, including the development of normal dental occlusion, but large epidemiological findings on the association breastfeeding-malocclusion are lacking. To investigate the association between the proportion of breastfed children in the city level and the prevalence of malocclusion in the primary dentition at age 5. This cross-sectional analysis used data from national population surveys on oral health and on breastfeeding practices. Data refer to 5278 5-year-old children and 44 Brazilian towns. Information on malocclusion and individual sociodemographic characteristics were obtained from the 2010 Brazilian Oral Health Survey. Breastfeeding rates during the first year of life were extracted from the Breastfeeding Prevalence Survey in Brazilian Towns. Population sociodemographic data were analysed as confounder. Multilevel Poisson analyses were performed. Malocclusion prevalence was 63.3%. Towns exhibiting higher prevalence of breastfeeding among 9- to 12-month-olds presented lower prevalence of malocclusion among children at age 5 (PR 0.98; 95% CI 0.98-0.99). Lower prevalence of malocclusion among 5-year-old children was associated with a higher proportion of children breastfed at ages 9 to 12months at a city level, regardless of sociodemographic factors. These findings highlight the importance of encouraging breastfeeding during a child's first year.

A Longitudinal Examination of Decisions to Ride and Decline Rides with Drinking Drivers.

Riding with a drinking driver (RWDD) is a serious concern that leads to numerous preventable deaths every year. There is a significant gap in research on empirically tested predictors of RWDD that could be implemented in prevention efforts. College students are in need of such prevention efforts, as they have some of the highest rates of alcohol-related crash fatalities and may engage in RWDD more than their noncollege peers. This study utilized behavioral decision-making approach to examine predictors of RWDD and declining a ride from a drinking driver (Decline) in older college students. Students (n=791) in their third year of college were enrolled from 3 large and diverse universities. Psychosocial (e.g., expectancies, norms) and decision-making variables (willingness to RWDD and intentions to use alternatives) were assessed in the fall of their third year. One year later, RWDD and Decline behaviors were assessed. Zero-inflated Poisson analyses were used to assess how decision-making variables predicted RWDD and Decline behavior. Associations between psychosocial and decision-making variables were also assessed. Thirteen percent of students reported RWDD and ~28% reported Decline behavior. Willingness to RWDD and typical weekly drinking were both associated with increases in RWDD (odds ratio [OR]=1.58 and 1.40, respectively), whereas intentions to use alternatives, sex, and ethnicity were not associated with RWDD. Only weekly drinking was associated with Decline, with an increase in drinking associated with increased Decline (OR=1.48). All psychosocial variables were significantly associated with the decision-making variables except positive expectancies. Results provide evidence that willingness to RWDD is a predictor of future RWDD, even if students intend to use safe alternatives. Future research is needed to better understand decision-making factors that influence Decline. Results also suggest prevention and interventions efforts, such as brief motivational intervention, Parent-Based Interventions, and normative feedback interventions could be adapted to reduce RWDD.

Is combined cataract surgery associated with acute postoperative endophthalmitis? A nationwide study from 2005 to 2014.

To assess the incidence of acute postoperative endophthalmitis (POE) after cataract surgery combined with corneal, glaucoma or vitreoretinal surgical procedures from 2005 to 2014 in France. In this cohort study, acute POE occurring within 6 weeks after surgery was identified by means of billing codes recorded in a national database in patients operated for cataract extraction with phacoemulsification, or corneal, glaucoma or vitreoretinal surgical procedures, either combined or stand-alone. From January 2005 to December 2014, up to6 260 477 eyes underwent phacoemulsification cataract surgery as a single procedure and 115 468 eyes underwent phacoemulsification combined with corneal, glaucoma or vitreoretinal surgical procedures. The crude incidence of acute POE after stand-alone or combined cataract surgery was 0.102% and 0.149%, respectively. In multivariate Poisson analysis, combined surgery taken as a whole was at higher risk than cataract stand-alone surgery, with an adjustedincidence rate ratio (IRR) (95%CI) of 1.38 (1.11to1.70; p=0.0054). Glaucoma surgeries were associated with a lower acute POE incidence compared with phacoemulsification, conversely to vitreoretinal surgical procedures: IRR 0.63 (0.47to0.85; p<0.001) and IRR 1.78 (1.58to2.01; p<0.001), respectively. A higher incidence of acute POE after combined cataract surgery than after cataract surgery done as a stand-alone procedure was observed based on the French nationwide medical-administrative database. The incidence of acute POE after combined surgery was related to the type of surgery performed simultaneously with cataract extraction.

Obesity, Diabetes, and the Risk of Invasive Group B Streptococcal Disease in Nonpregnant Adults in the United States.

BackgroundRates of invasive group B Streptococcus (GBS) disease, obesity, and diabetes have increased in US adults. We hypothesized that obesity would be independently associated with an increased risk of invasive GBS disease.MethodsWe identified adults with invasive GBS disease within Active Bacterial Core surveillance during 2010–2012 and used population estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to calculate invasive GBS incidence rates. We estimated relative risks (RRs) of invasive GBS using Poisson analysis with offset denominators, with obesity categorized as class I/II (body mass index [BMI] = 30–39.9 kg/m2) and class III (BMI ≥ 40.0 kg/m2).ResultsIn multivariable analysis of 4281 cases, the adjusted RRs of invasive GBS disease were increased for obesity (class I/II: RR, 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14–2.02; and class III: RR, 4.87; 95% CI, 3.50–6.77; reference overweight) and diabetes (RR, 6.04; 95% CI, 4.77–7.65). The adjusted RR associated with class III obesity was 3-fold among persons with diabetes (95% CI, 1.38–6.61) and nearly 9-fold among persons without diabetes (95% CI, 6.41–12.46), compared with overweight. The adjusted RRs associated with diabetes varied by age and BMI, with the highest RR in young populations without obesity. Population attributable risks of invasive GBS disease were 27.2% for obesity and 40.1% for diabetes.ConclusionsObesity and diabetes were associated with substantially increased risk of infection from invasive GBS. Given the population attributable risks of obesity and diabetes, interventions that reduce the prevalence of these conditions would likely reduce the burden of invasive GBS infection.

PCR-Stop analysis as a new tool for qPCR assay validation

Progressively more qPCR assays have been developed in recent years in numerous fields of application. These assays are routinely validated using calibration curves, but essential validation per se such as Poisson analysis is frequently neglected. However, validation is crucial for determination of resolution and quantitative and qualitative limits. The new test method PCR-Stop analysis presented in this work investigates assay performance during initial qPCR cycles. PCRs with one to five pre-runs are performed while the subsequent main qPCR runs reflect pre-run replication rates. Ideally, DNA doubles according to pre-runs, there is no variation between replicates and qPCR starts immediately at the first cycle with its average efficiency. This study shows two exemplary qPCR assays, both with suitable calibration curves and efficiencies. We demonstrated thereby the benefits of PCR-Stop analysis revealing quantitative and qualitative resolution of both assays, the limits of one of those assays and thus avoiding misinterpretations in qPCR analysis. Furthermore, data displayed that a well performing assay starts indeed with its average efficiency.

Functional genomics for the oleaginous yeast Yarrowia lipolytica

Oleaginous yeasts are valuable systems for biosustainable production of hydrocarbon-based chemicals. Yarrowia lipolytica is one of the best characterized of these yeast with respect to genome annotation and flux analysis of metabolic processes. Nonetheless, progress is hampered by a dearth of genome-wide tools enabling functional genomics. In order to remedy this deficiency, we developed a library of Y. lipolytica insertion mutants via transposon mutagenesis. The Hermes DNA transposon was expressed to achieve saturation mutagenesis of the genome. Over 534,000 independent insertions were identified by next-generation sequencing. Poisson analysis of insertion density classified ~ 22% of genes as essential. As expected, most essential genes have homologs in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe, and the majority of those are also essential. As an obligate aerobe, Y. lipolytica has significantly more respiration - related genes that are classified as essential than do S. cerevisiae and S. pombe. Contributions of non-essential genes to growth in glucose and glycerol carbon sources were assessed and used to evaluate two recent genome-scale models of Y. lipolytica metabolism. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting identified mutants in which lipid accumulation is increased. Our findings provide insights into biosynthetic pathways, compartmentalization of enzymes, and distinct functions of paralogs. This functional genomic analysis of the oleaginous yeast Y. lipolytica provides an important resource for modeling, bioengineering, and design of synthetic minimalized strains of respiratory yeasts.

Individual and contextual factors associated to the self-perception of oral health in Brazilian adults

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE To analyze how individual characteristics and the social context, together, are associated with self-perception of the oral health.METHODS A multilevel cross-sectional study with data from the Brazilian National Health Survey 2013, the United Nations Development Program, and the National Registry of Health Establishments. The explanatory variables for the “oral health perception” outcome were grouped, according to the study framework, into biological characteristics (sex, color, age), proximal social determinants (literacy, household crowding, and socioeconomic stratification), and distal (years of schooling expectancy at age 18, GINI, Human Development Index, and per capita income). The described analysis was performed, along with bivariate Poisson analysis and multilevel Poisson analysis for the construction of the explanatory model of oral health perception. All analyzes considered the sample weights.RESULTS Both the biological characteristics and the proximal and distal social determinants were associated with the perception of oral health in the bivariate analysis. A higher prevalence of bad oral health was associated to lower years of schooling expectancy (PR = 1.31), lower per capita income (PR = 1.45), higher income concentration (PR = 1.41), and worse human development (PR = 1.45). Inversely, oral health services in both primary and secondary care were negatively associated with oral health perception. All the biological and individual social characteristics, except reading and writing, made up the final explanatory model along with the distal social determinants of the Human Development Index and coverage of basic care in the multilevel analysis.CONCLUSIONS Biological factors, individual and contextual social determinants were associate synergistically with the population’s perception of oral health. It is necessary to improve individual living conditions and the implementation of public social policies to improve the oral health of the population.

Disparities in availability of essential medicines to treat non-communicable diseases in Uganda: A Poisson analysis using the Service Availability and Readiness Assessment.

ObjectiveAlthough the WHO-developed Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) tool is a comprehensive and widely applied survey of health facility preparedness, SARA data have not previously been used to model predictors of readiness. We sought to demonstrate that SARA data can be used to model availability of essential medicines for treating non-communicable diseases (EM-NCD).MethodsWe fit a Poisson regression model using 2013 SARA data from 196 Ugandan health facilities. The outcome was total number of different EM-NCD available. Basic amenities, equipment, region, health facility type, managing authority, NCD diagnostic capacity, and range of HIV services were tested as predictor variables.FindingsIn multivariate models, we found significant associations between EM-NCD availability and region, managing authority, facility type, and range of HIV services. For-profit facilities’ EM-NCD counts were 98% higher than public facilities (p < .001). General hospitals and referral health centers had 98% (p = .004) and 105% (p = .002) higher counts compared to primary health centers. Facilities in the North and East had significantly lower counts than those in the capital region (p = 0.015; p = 0.003). Offering HIV care was associated with 35% lower EM-NCD counts (p = 0.006). Offering HIV counseling and testing was associated with 57% higher counts (p = 0.048).ConclusionWe identified multiple within-country disparities in availability of EM-NCD in Uganda. Our findings can be used to identify gaps and guide distribution of limited resources. While the primary purpose of SARA is to assess and monitor health services readiness, we show that it can also be an important resource for answering complex research and policy questions requiring multivariate analysis.

Risk of cancer after primary total hip replacement: The influence of bearings, cementation and the material of the stem

Background and purpose — Despite the increasing number of total hip replacements (THRs), their systemic influence is still not known. We have studied the influence of specific features of THRs—the bearing surface, the use of bone cement and the material of the stem—on the cancer incidence.Patients and methods — In a retrospective cohort study we identified 8,343 patients with THRs performed at Valdoltra Hospital from September 1, 1997 to December 31, 2009. Patient data were linked to national cancer and population registries. The standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and Poisson regression relative risks (RR) were calculated for all and specific cancers.Results — General cancer risk in our cohort was comparable to the population risk. Comparing with population, the risk of prostate cancer was statistically significantly higher in patients with metal-on-metal bearings (SIR =1.35); with metal-on-polyethylene bearings (SIR =1.30), with non-cemented THRs (SIR =1.40), and with titanium alloy THRs (SIR =1.41). In these last 3 groups there was a lower risk of hematopoietic tumors (SIR =0.69; 0.66 and 0.66 respectively). Risk of kidney cancer was significantly higher in the non-metal-on-metal, non-cemented, and titanium alloy groups (SIR =1.30; 1.46 and 1.41 respectively). Risk of colorectal and lung cancer was significantly lower in the investigated cohort (SIR =0.82 and 0.83, respectively). Risk for all cancers combined as well as for prostate and skin cancer, shown by Poisson analysis, was higher in the metal-on-metal group compared with non-metal-on-metal group (RR =1.56; 2.02 and 1.92, respectively).Interpretation — Some associations were found between the THRs’ features, especially a positive association between metal-on-metal bearings, and specific cancers.

A Conditional Poisson Analysis of Fine Particulate Matter and U.S. Medicare Hospitalization, 1999-2010, by Individual-Level Chronic Health Conditions

Background/Aim: A previous analysis suggested that U.S. counties with higher county-level prevalence of chronic conditions had stronger associations of mortality with fine particulate matter (PM2.5...

Chlorophyll-Inspired Red-Region Fluorophores: Building Block Synthesis and Studies in Aqueous Media.

Fluorophores that absorb and emit in the red spectral region (600–700 nm) are of great interest in photochemistry and photomedicine. Eight new target chlorins (and 19 new chlorins altogether)—analogues of chlorophyll—of different polarities have been designed and synthesized for various applications; seven of the chlorins are equipped with a bioconjugatable tether. Hydrophobic or amphiphilic chlorins in a non-polar organic solvent (toluene), polar organic solvent (DMF), and aqueous or aqueous micellar media show a sharp emission band in the red region and modest fluorescence quantum yield (Φf = 0.2–0.3). A Poisson analysis implies most micelles are empty and few contain >1 chlorin. Water-soluble chlorins each bearing three PEG (oligoethyleneglycol) groups exhibit narrow emission bands (full-width-at-half maximum <25 nm). The lifetime of the lowest singlet excited state and the corresponding yields and rate constants for depopulation pathways (fluorescence, intersystem crossing, internal conversion) are generally little affected by the PEG groups or dissolution in aqueous or organic media. A set of chlorin–avidin conjugates revealed a 2-fold increase in Φf with increased average chlorin/avidin ratio (2.3–12). In summary, the chlorins of various polarities described herein are well suited as red-emitting fluorophores for applications in aqueous or organic media.

Impact of intravenous thrombolysis on length of hospital stay in cases of acute ischemic stroke.

BackgroundThere are limited data available on factors associated with length of stay (LOS) in cases of acute ischemic stroke according to Poisson analysis, which is more appropriate than other methods.Materials and methodsWe retrospectively reviewed medical summary charts of patients with acute ischemic stroke in 30 hospitals across northeast Thailand, with the main outcome as LOS. Poisson regression was used to examine factors associated with LOS.ResultsWe included 898 patients in the analysis; 460 (51.2%) were male. The median age (interquartile; IQR) was 58 (67–75) years and the median LOS was 5 (4–7) days. The median National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS [IQR]) was 8 (4–13). Results of the analysis showed that, after controlling for age, stroke severity, atrial fibrillation, and thrombolytic use, significant variables associated with LOS were moderate stroke (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.15 [range 1.01–1.30], P=0.040), severe stroke (IRR [95% CI] =1.27 [1.09–1.47], P=0.002), thrombolytic use (IRR [95% CI] =0.68 [0.60–0.76], P<0.001), and atrial fibrillation (IRR [95% CI] =1.15 [1.02–1.30], P=0.023). After adjusting for complications, thrombolytic use remained significantly associated with decreased LOS (IRR [95% CI] =0.74 [0.67–0.83], P=0.001). Other significant factors were atrial fibrillation (IRR [95% CI] =1.14 [1.02–1.28], P=0.018), pneumonia (IRR [95% CI] =1.48 [1.30–1.68], P<0.001), and urinary tract infection (IRR [95% CI] =1.41 [1.14–1.74], P=0.001).ConclusionAccording to Poisson analysis, intravenous thrombolysis, atrial fibrillation, pneumonia, and urinary tract infection are associated with LOS in cases of acute ischemic stroke, regardless of age, stroke severity, comorbidities, or complications.

Wireless Energy Harvesting Sensor Networks: Boolean–Poisson Modeling and Analysis

Wireless radio frequency energy harvesting has been adopted in wireless networks as a method to supply energy to wireless nodes. In this paper, we analyze a wireless energy harvesting network based on a Boolean-Poisson model. This model assumes that energy sources are distributed according to a Poisson point process and have disc-shaped coverage regions with random radii. We introduce a distribution for the coverage radii, which takes aggregated harvested power into account. The union of the coverage regions of the energy sources forms the energy harvesting zone. We derive the transmission success probability of single-hop networks characterized by the probability that two sensor nodes are located in the energy harvesting zone. Then, we analyze the performance of multi-hop networks in the cases, where the locations of the sensor nodes are either fixed or randomly distributed. Moreover, we consider a star-shaped topology, which reflects the scenario wherein some sensor nodes simultaneously transmit data to a data collector. In this setting, we derive an approximation of the average throughput at the data collector. Numerical results validate the accuracy of our analysis in the single-hop and multi-hop networks and confirm the tightness of our approximation in the case of the star-shaped topology.

Cannabis Use Disorder Is Associated With Increased Risk of Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) Pancreatitis: Analysis of the U.S. Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) Database, 2004-2014

Introduction: Post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) is the most common complication following ERCP. Studies in mice with cerulein-induced pancreatitis have shown that administration of anandamide, a cannabinoid receptor agonist, to mice increases the severity of pancreatitis. We hypothesized that cannabis use is associated with increased incidence of PEP. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of cannabis use on PEP and hospital resources in patients after ERCP. Methods: The NIS database was queried to identify patients who had an ERCP with or without PEP from 2004 to 2014. We adopted the previously validated definition for PEP from the NIS database. The primary outcome was PEP and secondary outcomes were in-hospital death, length of stay and hospital costs. Cannabis use was identified on the basis of ICD-9 codes 304.3* and 305.2* in adults aged 18 years or more. We excluded cases coded “in remission”. Poisson regression models were used to derive adjusted incidence risk ratios (IRR) for outcomes in patients with Cannabis use compared to those without Cannabis use. Results: Of 381,288 discharges (60.8% females) for patients who underwent ERCP, we found a total of 37,712 discharges for PEP (9.9%). Among the included patients, 1,479 had a cannabis use disorder. The median age was 60 (IQR 46-75) years. From 2004 to 2014, the rate of PEP increased by 23.6 % (8.9% to 11.0%, p-trend <0.01, Fig 1). Cannabis use significantly increased over the study period (0.20 % to 0.70 %, P<0.01, Fig 2). Univariate Poisson regression analysis showed that cannabis use was associated with a 67% increased risk of PEP (IRR 1.67; 95% CI 1.47-1.90). In a multivariate Poisson analysis, adjusting for age, sex, race, Elixhauser Comorbidities, hospital teaching status, diagnostic vs therapeutic indication for ERCP, biliary vs pancreatic indications for ERCP and ERCP related interventions such as sphincterotomy and pancreatic stent placement, cannabis use remained an independent predictor of PEP (IRR, 1.39; 95% CI 1.21-1.59). Cannabis use was not associated with in-hospital death (IRR, 0.44; 95% CI 0.10-3.15), but was associated with a shorter length of stay (IRR, 0.80; 95% CI 0.76-0.84) and lower hospital costs (IRR, 0.761; 95% CI 0.760-0.762).Figure: Proportion of Discharges with Post-ERCP Pancreatitis from 2004 to 2014.Figure: Proportion of ERCP Discharges with Cannabis Use disorder from 2004 to 2014.Conclusion: Cannabis use is on the rise among patients undergoing ERCP. Cannabis use was associated with significant increase in post-ERCP pancreatitis without significant increase in mortality in “realworld” U.S. clinical practice.

Minimal Impact by Antenatal Subpatent Plasmodium falciparum Infections on Delivery Outcomes in Malawian Women: A Cohort Study

Antenatal malaria screening with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and treatment only of women with positive RDT findings may potentially prevent low birth weight resulting from malaria. The consequences of subpatent antenatal infections below the detection limit of RDTs are incompletely understood. In Malawi, pregnant women of any gravidity status were tested at each antenatal visit for Plasmodium falciparum, using an RDT and polymerase chain reaction analysis, and were followed until delivery. Associations between antenatal infections and delivery outcomes were assessed with Poisson regression or analysis of variance. Compared with women with no detected antenatal P. falciparum infection, women with positive RDT findings delivered babies with a lower mean birth weight (2960 vs 2867 g; mean difference, -93 g [95% confidence interval {CI}, -27 to -159]; P = .006); this was not observed among women with only subpatent infections (mean birth weight, 3013 g; mean difference, 54 [95% CI, -33-140]; P = .2268). These differences were apparent early in pregnancy, during the second trimester: compared with uninfected women, women with positive RDT findings delivered babies with a lower mean birth weight (mean difference, -94 g [95% CI, -31 to -156]; P = .003), but women with subpatent infections did not (mean difference, 36 g [95% CI, -49-122]; P = .409). Subpatent antenatal P. falciparum infections were not associated with adverse delivery outcomes. The association of patent infections at enrollment with low birth weight suggests the importance of preventing P. falciparum infection early in pregnancy.

Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors

Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998–2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou.

Developing Depressive Symptoms over the Adolescent Years: The Influence of Affiliated Cultural Values among Taiwanese Youth

The purpose of this study was (a) to identify latent subgroups of Taiwanese adolescents who vary in their cultural value affiliations and (b) to examine how latent-subgroup membership in early adolescence predicted depressive symptoms for 6 years throughout adolescence into young adulthood. Participants consisted of 2458 youth from the longitudinal Taiwan Youth Project (TYP). Latent profile analysis indicated five classes (patterns) of cultural value affiliation. A zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) analysis followed, which identified the estimated (a) probability of experiencing depressive symptoms and (b) number of depressive symptoms experienced by individuals who reported depressive symptoms across the five observational time points. Results showed that among the five classes of value affiliation, two classes had a greater likelihood of experiencing depressive symptoms at the beginning of the assessment (age 15). Youth who were least likely to embrace societally prescribed culture values were at the greatest risk for manifesting subsequent depressive symptoms. These findings support the idea that the way adolescents identify with their cultural values predicts subsequent depressive symptoms.

Disparities in Availability of Essential Medicines to Treat Non-communicable Diseases in Uganda: A Cross-sectional Poisson Analysis Using the 2013 Service Availability and Readiness Assessment

Disparities in Availability of Essential Medicines to Treat Non-communicable Diseases in Uganda: A Cross-sectional Poisson Analysis Using the 2013 Service Availability and Readiness Assessment