Occurrence Points Research Articles

Moving north in China: The habitat of Pedicularis kansuensis in the context of climate change

Pedicularis kansuensis is a poisonous grass and a semi-parasitic plant that has spread rapidly in alpine grasslands in recent years and caused great harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about the habitat of P. kansuensis and the key environmental factors that influence its expansion. We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of P. kansuensis in China under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and MigClim for the years 2050 and 2070 and examined key environmental factors affecting P. kansuensis distribution. In total, 118 occurrence points and fourteen selected variables were used for the modeling. The models developed for P. kansuensis showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.9 and TSS > 0.90). The results were as follows. 1) The occupied habitats for P. kansuensis in the four climate scenarios were generally offset in the northward direction. 2) The most important environmental variables influencing the spread of P. kansuensis were altitude, annual precipitation, annual temperature range, precipitation in the warmest quarter and ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality (UVB-2). 3) Under RCP 2.6, the occupied habitat would be increased 0.04% by 2050 and would be increased to 0.51% by 2070. Under RCP 8.5, the average occupied habitat was predicted to increase 0.07% by 2050 and increase to 0.53% by 2070. The increase was relatively higher in the occupied habitats located in the southwestern regions (Sichuan, Xizang and Yunnan) than those in the northwestern regions (Gansu and Xinjiang).

Ordovician trace fossils from southern Jordan with particular consideration to the Cruziana rugosa group: Taxonomy, stratigraphy and trans-regional correlation throughout the Middle East and northern Africa

First detailed palaeoichnological research is presented from all the Ordovician formations and members of the Southern Desert of Jordan. The exclusively siliciclastic succession is of fluvial, fluvial-deltaic and fully marine origin and develops continuously from Cambrian strata until late Hirnantian glacial deposits. The ichnofauna occurs on large outcrop surfaces and is quite rich and of high diversity. Based on numerous taxonomic identifications from the excellently preserved material of various stratigraphic levels a biostratigraphic determination of the sequence is concluded as late Early to early Late Ordovician. Twenty-four ichnotaxa, two morphotypes and fifteen ichnogenera within five ethological groups based on the categories of architectural designs were identified. (1) horizontal burrows and trails (arthropod traces): Cruziana rugosa, C. furcifera, C. goldfussi, C. rouaulti, C. almadenensis, C. isp., Diplichnites cf. D. gouldi, D. morphotype A, D. morphotype B, Monomorphichnus cf. lineatus, cf. Monomorphichnus, Rusophycus didymus, R. aff. petraeus, ?R. aff. almadenensis; (2) vertical burrows: Arenicolites isp., Monocraterion isp., Rosselia socialis, Skolithos linearis; (3) plug-shaped burrows: Bergaueria perata, B. sucta; (4) horizontal branched burrows: Treptichnus cf. T. pedum; (5) horizontal burrows and trails: Gyrochorte isp., Palaeophycus tubularis, Planolites beverleyensis, Psammichnites gigas, Zoophycos isp. Whereas the ichnofauna of the Early Ordovician upper Disi Formation (Fm.) is dominated by cruzianid (C. rugosa group) and diplichnid arthopod traces (“trilobite highways”), the late Middle to early Late Ordovician Dubaydib Fm. contains distinctly smaller, nearly monoichnospecific, but completely surface covering arthropod tracks (C. almadenensis). In places, an amazing monospecific mass occurrence (Skolithos piperock ichnofabric) points to very special palaeoecological conditions during the deposition of the lower Dubaydib Fm. Ichnoassociations of the lower part of the Mudawwara Fm. (middle Late Ordovician) indicate a primarily shallow environment (e.g., Zoophycos isp.). Based on the trace fossil content and lithofacial characteristics, a correlation with North African regions is possible. So, the upper part of the Disi Fm. and the lower part of the Umm Sahm Fm. From Jordan is correlated with the Early Ordovician strata from southeastern Libya by the occurrence of C. goldfussi and C. furcifera. Additional correlations are possible by the shared occurrence of C. rouaulti with western Egypt, Sudan and western Libya. Within the Middle East (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran and Turkey), similar trace fossil assemblages composed of the C. rugosa group and related traces as well as common lithofacies characteristics point to closer palaeogeographic vicinity on a connected shallow shelf region along the costal margin of the Gondwana palaeocontinent.

Prediction of the globally ecological suitability of Panax quinquefolius by the geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS).

American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) is a well-known Asian traditional herbal medicine with a large market demand. The plant is native to eastern North America, and its main producing areas worldwide are decreasing due to continuous cropping obstacles and environmental changes. Therefore, the identification of maximum similarities of new ecological distribution of P. quinquefolius, and prediction of its response to climate change in the future are necessary for plant introduction and cultivation. In this study, the areas with potential ecological suitability for P. quinquefolius were predicted using the geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS) based on 476 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables. The results indicate that the new ecologically suitable areas for P. quinquefolius are East Asia and the mid-eastern Europe, which are mainly distributed in China, Russia, Japan, Ukraine, Belarus, North Korean, South Korea, andRomania. Under global climate change scenarios, the suitable planting areas for P. quinquefolius would be increased by 9.16%-30.97%, and expandingnorth and west over the current ecologically suitable areas by 2070. The potential increased areas that are ecologically suitable include northern Canada, Eastern Europe, and the Lesser Khingan Mountains of China, and reduced regions are mainly in central China, the southern U.S., and southern Europe. Jackknife tests indicate that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the important climatic factor controlling the distribution of P. quinquefolius. Our findings can be used as auseful guide for P. quinquefolius introduction and cultivation in ecologically suitable areas.

The potential global distribution and dynamics of wheat under multiple climate change scenarios

Accurately predicting changes in the potential distribution of crops resulting from climate change has great significance for adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change and ensuring food security. Based on very large datasets of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) occurrence points and the main environmental factors that affect wheat growth, we used the Maxent model to predict the future global potential distribution and land suitability for wheat cultivation under multiple global climate change scenarios. Our results indicated that the suitability for wheat cultivation is primarily influenced by climatic factors and that the ≥0 °C accumulated temperature is especially important. The RCP4.5 scenario is more favourable for wheat cultivation, whereas the RCP8.5 scenario is the least favourable. Moreover, land suitability for wheat cultivation increased in Europe, Russia, the United States, Canada, China, and Pakistan, whereas a decreasing trend in suitability was found in Central and Eastern Africa, Australia, and South India. Overall, climate change is predicted to increase land suitability for wheat cultivation in middle- and high-latitude areas, and to decrease suitability in low latitude areas. Although the global distribution of wheat will not significantly alter with climate change, the risks to wheat cultivation may be significantly higher in the future because of high temperatures, heat waves, and droughts caused by climate change.

Modelling Parthenium hysterophorus invasion in KwaZulu-Natal province using remotely sensed data and environmental variables

Globally, infestations of invasive plant species impact negatively on the environment, livelihoods and local and national economies. Therefore, understanding their potential distribution is paramount. In this study, we sought to model habitats susceptible to Parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus) invasion using environmental and Sentinel 2 multi-spectral imagery variables in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) environment. Using occurrence points we tested the utility of (i) spectral bands (ii) derived vegetation indices and (iii) the combination of spectral bands and vegetation indices. Area under curve (AUC) values in MaxEnt were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Results show that the combination of environmental variables and spectral bands yielded superior AUC value of 0.976. Sentinel 2 red-edge band (705 nm) and the normalized red edge vegetation indices were the most influential variables in predicting habitat susceptible to Parthenium invasion. These results illustrate the potential of Sentinel 2 MSI and environmental variables in predicting Parthenium invasion.

Unpredicted occurrence of Aglae caerulea in the Pantanal wetland biome and its implications (Apidae: Euglossini)

An unpredicted occurrence of the cleptoparasitic orchid bee Aglae caerulea is announced for the Pantanal wetland biome in midwest Brazil, cataloged in a gallery forest in the Serra das Araras Ecological Station, southwestern Mato Grosso. A single female was cataloged outside the polygons where surveys were recently proposed for new orchid bee inventories in the Neotropical realm. The female found in habitat preoccupied by its hostess Eulaema nigrita is presumed representative to confirm that A. caerulea occurs in sympatry with their host in this wetland. Two recent points of occurrence in the Amazon rainforest of Mato Grosso were included here to update the Aglae distribution map. Following a meticulous literature review, several previous records from tropical moist forests in Panama and spanning from the Caribbean Sea to the Cerrado in central Bolivia and Brazil were used to complete the present record points of A. caerulea in the neotropics. The results demonstrate another distributional gap in euglossines and suggest the need for additional studies to find Aglae in southern Pantanal and farther afield.

Hemlock woolly adelgid niche models from the invasive eastern North American range with projections to native ranges and future climates

Abstract: The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand - HWA) is invasive in eastern North America where it causes extensive mortality to hemlock communities. The future of these communities under projected climate change is an issue of landscape ecological interest and speculation. We employed the MaxEnt algorithm with the random subset feature selection algorithm (RSFSA) in creating HWA niche models. Final models were ensembles of 12 statistically best models with six predictors each. Out of 119 climatic, topographic, and soil variables, 42 were used in at least one final model. Soil features, followed by climate and topographic features, were most common in selected models. The three most important variables among all models were November potential evapotranspiration, slope, and percent Ochrepts soil. The potential distributions of HWA within eastern North America were projected under historical and four future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070 under low and high CO2 emissions. The mean of the minimum values for the minimum temperature of the coldest month from the 12 MaxEnt model projections in eastern North America was -15.8°C. This value was close to -15°C, the extreme minimum temperature found for both HWA occurrence points and previously reported HWA cold temperature limits. These results indicate that HWA may be close to equilibrium distribution in eastern North America under current climate. We also reverse-casted the eastern North American MaxEnt model back onto the HWA native ranges in eastern Asia and western North America. The projections match best with native ranges in Asian islands, such as Japan, and the Cascade Mountains in western North America. Statistically significant HWA range shifts of 221-468 km northwards and 110-164 km eastwards were projected by the 12 models for 2050-2070. The 2070 high CO2 emission scenario models projects HWA suitability throughout most of the northern range of eastern hemlock.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia

ABSTRACTMalaria is a leading and severe disease in Ethiopia, particularly like the Tigray region. The main objectives of the study were to model the influence of climate change on malaria transmission in Tigray and identify environmental variables that contribute to malaria. Aiming these objectives, Kafta Humera, Raya Azebo and Laelay Adiabo districts were purposively selected based on their malaria prevalence. Two hundred and nine mosquito occurrence points were collected from the study area. Collected occurrence points, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables were run in Maxent software. Malaria transmission was simulated for themiddle and end of the twenty-first century using two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios driving ensemble of three general circulation models. The results show that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase by 93.8% (RCP4.5) and 113.9% (RCP8.5) by mid-century and by 161% (RCP4.5) and 149% (RCP8.5) by the end of the twenty-first century, when compared with the historical baseline. This indicates that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase due to climate change over the region. Therefore, the study recommends well prevention and control of malaria to ensure the health of people.

Making the most of scarce data: Mapping soil gradients in data‐poor areas using species occurrence records

AbstractMaps of environmental characteristics are needed to improve our understanding of species distributions and ecosystem dynamics. Despite the growing demand for digital environmental maps, scarcity of environmental field samples to be used as input data often constrains the accuracy of such maps, especially for soils.We developed and tested a method that combines information on species–environment associations and the spatial distribution of indicator species (as retrieved from repositories such asGBIF) to improve mapping accuracy of environmental variables.Our approach includes: (a) Compile field data on the environmental variable of interest (direct environmental data) and documented occurrences of the species to be used as indicators; (b) define species optima for the environmental variable; (c) use georeferenced records of the indicator species to calculate species‐based environmental values (indirect environmental data); (d) generate maps using direct and indirect environmental data as input data for interpolation; (e) validate the maps. We applied the method to map the concentration of exchangeable base cations in Amazonian soils using fern and lycophyte species as indicators.Including soil values that had been indirectly estimated using indicator species represented a 12‐fold increase in the number of input data points used for mapping. At the same time, map accuracy improved considerably: the correlation between mapped soil cation concentration estimates and field‐measured values from an independent validation dataset increased fromr = 0.48 tor = 0.71.Knowledge on species–environment relationships can be useful for modelling ecologically relevant environmental variables in areas where species occurrence data are more readily available than direct environmental measurements. The method works even with haphazard species occurrence points obtained from public repositories such asGBIFand can be applied to other environmental variables and other indicator groups, provided that the environmental variable of interest is relevant as a determinant of species occurrences in the indicator group. The Amazonian soil cation concentration maps produced (available athttps://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.879542) can be used as digital layers in species distribution and habitat modelling, and to guide conservation actions in Amazonia.

Modelling the distribution of a potential invasive tropical fern, Cyclosorus afer in Nigeria

AbstractIn this study, we predicted the distribution of Cyclosorus afer in Nigeria using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) technique. We used 95 occurrence points in one State to extrapolate its spread in other States in Nigeria. Three sites of sizes 500 × 500 m2 separated by minimum distance of 1,000 m2 were sampled in the study area. Seven bioclimatic and elevation variables were selected for the model. Maxent model was run using standard settings with 70% of the occurrence data as training and remaining 30% as test data. The result showed that Maxent performed better than random prediction due to the area under curve for receiver operating characteristics of training (0.990) and test data (0.987) closer to 1. The sensitivity of the Maxent model for occurrence data of C. afer was found to be 100%. The model predicted higher probability of occurrence covering an area of 26019.11 km2 in 4 States of Nigeria. Jackknife evaluation of the model revealed that the environmental predictors of C. afer in Nigeria are annual mean temperature, mean temperature of driest quarter, precipitation seasonality, Precipitation of driest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter. These variables all showed higher gain and contributions to the model.

Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal.

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975-2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km2 corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.

Potential distribution and ecological conditions of Lonomia obliqua Walker 1855 (Saturniidae: Hemileucinae) in Brazil

Lonomia obliqua Walker 1855 (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae) is a species of moth which larvae are responsible for the lonomism, a form of envenomation that has been occurring in Brazil since the 1980s. Despite the importance in public health, the geographical distribution and their ecological aspects are unknown. Therefore, in the present study, we present a potential geographical distribution map for L. obliqua in Brazil, based on the combination of different Ecology Niche Modelling (ENM) algorithms. A total of 38 occurrence points were distributed in the southern/ southeastern regions of Brazil and in the province of Misiones (Argentina), which were divided for calibration and evaluation of the model. Eight continuous climatic and soil variables were selected from 16 previously calculated for model calibration. The final model-map is composed of a combination of four algorithms (Gower, Mahalanobis, MAXENT and SVM), with samples of pseudo-absences outside a Bioclimatic Envelope (BIOCLIM) in quantity equal to the presences. This model-map was binarized from the Low Presence Threshold (LPT) and cut only to the Brazilian area. According to this map, the areas predicted as suitable for L. obliqua are restricted between latitudes ˜12° and ˜32°, and longitudes ˜39° and ˜57°, with extension of 1,181,604 km². The model-map was also validated with external data from samples of the species, at municipality level, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil). From this information, we extracted the values of variables related to climate and soil, and with additional variables related to the land use and type of vegetation, in order to contribute to the ecological knowledge of the species. In general, the map and the ecological information obtained can serve as a tool for public health agents in Brazil to adequately guide preventive strategies and attention to lonomism in the country, and with addendum on habitat loss and accident conditions with the species.

Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential distribution of the endemic plant Rosa arabica Crép. in Egypt

Climate change poses negative impacts on plant species, particularly for those of restricted ecology and distribution range. Rosa arabica Crép., an exclusive endemic species to Saint Catherine Protectorate in Egypt, has severely declined and become critically endangered in the last years. In this paper, we applied the maximum-entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to predict the current and future potential distribution of this species in order to provide a basis for its protection and conservation. In total, 32 field-based occurrence points and 22 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic and three topographic) were used to model the potential distribution area under current and two future representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. Annual temperature, annual precipitation and elevation were the key factors for the distribution of R. arabica. The response curves showed that this species prefers habitats with an annual temperature of 8.05–15.4 °C, annual precipitation of 36 to 120 mm and elevation range of 1571 to 2273 m a.s.l. Most of the potential current suitable conditions were located at the middle northern region of Saint Catherine. Prediction models under two future climate change scenarios displayed habitat range shifts through the disappearance of R. arabica in sites below 1500 m a.s.l., an altitudinal range contraction at 1500–2000 m and possible expansions towards higher elevation sites (2000–2500 m a.s.l.). Our findings can be used to define the high priority areas for reintroduction or for protection against the expected climate change impacts and future modifications.

Zoning for edaphoclimatic aptitude of Bambusa vulgaris and Dendrocalamus giganteus in Brazil

ABSTRACT The use of renewable materials and more sustainable processes are essential to minimize the negative impacts of population growth. Bamboo is a viable alternative, because it is a product with potential properties for wood replacement. However, to achieve a good yield, it is necessary to identify suitable sites for the forestry of the species. This study aimed to forecast favorable areas for the best establishment and development of Bambusa vulgaris and Dendrocalamus giganteus in the Brazilian territory, functioning as a zoning for edaphoclimatic aptitude that can support decision-making. It was performed using georeferenced points of natural occurrence for the species, collected from a virtual herbarium. The environmental variables were extracted from the WorldClim, MOD16 and SoilGrids databases. In order to select the set of variables to be used for modeling each species, a correlation test was performed. From this result, ten environmental variables were used for each species, and non-correlated variables were chosen. A principal component analyses was applied to select the variables that better explained variability. For the distribution map, the Maxent algorithm was used, based on the principle of maximum entropy, evaluated by the AUC and TSS metrics. Bambusa vulgaris presents a large area for adaptation in the Brazilian territory, unlike the Dendrocalamus giganteus species, which showed a limited aptitude area.

Climate Change Influencing the Potential Distribution of a Brazilian Savanna Indicator Species

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to model the potential effect of future climate change on the distribution of a tree species indicator of Cerrado. For the modeling, we used 488 occurrence points of the species and also bioclimatic variables corresponding to 2050 and 2070, for the more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. All generated models were classified as consistent, getting an area under curve higher than 0.90. The current modeling of Connarus suberosus showed that 88% of the area with a high probability of species occurrence is inside the Cerrado domain. Future projections suggest losses in the environmental suitability area around 40.8% and 44.8% in the optimistic scenario, 61.6% and 81.6% in the pessimistic scenario considering 2050 and 2070, respectively. Furthermore, we found a tendency of the C. suberosus to move in the Atlantic Forest direction. This modeling is an alert that the C. suberosus will suffer from future climate change.

Clay mineralogy of landslide occurrences in hydrothermally altered area: A case study of Durensari Area, Purworejo, Central Java

Landslide is one of the geological phenomena that can be found frequently in Indonesia, where several areas are damaged due to landslide occurrence. One of it is located in Durensari Area, Bagelen, Purworejo, Central Java as the study area. The study area is characterized by the presence of altered volcanic rocks formed by the tertiary eruption, followed by hydrothermal alteration that contains clay minerals that could enhance the landslide occurrence. This study is conducted to identify hydrothermal clay minerals that which enhanced the landslide in the study area. Field mapping is done as field observation, as well as the clay minerals are identified from 10 samples using X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) as the study method. The observation has resulted that there are at least ±25 landslide occurrence points in the study area, which is associated with alteration type that consists of several clays, named by smectite, kaolinite, and illite assemblages as argillic alteration and chlorite, smectite, illite, and kaolinite assemblages as propylitic alteration. The research concluded that the replacement process of primary minerals by clay minerals and the presence of smectite affect the landslide occurrence in the study area, where moderate to the large landslide is associated with Argillic alteration, meanwhile small to moderate landslide is associated with propylitic alteration.

Global Distribution of Culicoides imicola, a Major Vector of Bluetongue, Schmallenberg and African Horse Sickness Viruses

Global Distribution of Culicoides imicola, a Major Vector of Bluetongue, Schmallenberg and African Horse Sickness Viruses

An Analysis of Crime Prevention Effect of CPTED Elements in Yeomni-dong Using Crime Location Data: Based on Street Segment Analysis Unit

This study aims to investigate the crime prevention effect of Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) elements installed in Yeomni-dong Sogum-gil. Although previous studies have emphasized the design and theoretical aspects of CPTED as a crime prevention effect, they have not verified the actual effect of CPTED elements on crime prevention sufficiently. Most of the existing literature has investigated the effect of CPTED elements through surveys that could involve the subjective views of researchers or survey respondents. Hence, this research analyzes the crime prevention effect of CPTED elements using crime location data of Yeomni-dong, Mapo-gu, which used to be one of the most crime-ridden districts in Seoul. By using the Quantum Geographical Information System (QGIS), crime occurrence points and the location of CPTED elements for a target area were converted to geospatial data. By performing an analysis by street segment, the ripple effect of CPTED elements on crime prevention was examined. The analysis shows that among 13 CPTED elements applied to the target area, six elements such as IP camera, play facilities at alleys, exercise facilities, exercise guide boards, SOS House (designated for people s security), and Sogum Naru (community and security facility for residents ) generated significant crime prevention effects, and streets where these elements were installed had a lower crime incidence.

Predicting Yellow Fever Through Species Distribution Modeling of Virus, Vector, and Monkeys.

Mapping yellow fever (YF) risk is often based on place of infection of human cases, whereas the circulation between nonhuman primates (NHP) and vectors is neglected. In 2008/2009, YF devastated NHP at the southern limit of the disease in the Americas. In view of the recent expansion of YF in Brazil, we modeled the environmental suitability for YF with data from 2008/2009 epizootic, the distribution of NHP (Alouatta spp.), and the mosquito (Haemagogus leucocelaenus) using the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) to define risk areas for YF and their main environmental predictors. We evaluated points of occurrence of YF based on dates of confirmed deaths of NHP in three periods, from October 2008 to: December 2008, March 2009, and June 2009. Variables with greatest influence on suitability for YF were seasonality in water vapor pressure (36%), distribution of NHP (32%), maximum wind speed (11%), annual mean rainfall (7%), and maximum temperature in the warmest month (5%). Models of early periods of the epizootic identified suitability for YF in localities that recorded NHP deaths only months later, demonstrating usefulness of the approach for predicting the disease spread. Our data supported influence of rainfall, air humidity, and ambient temperature on the distribution of epizootics. Wind was highlighted as a predicting variable, probably due to its influence on the dispersal of vectors infected with YF in fragmented landscapes. Further studies on the role of wind are necessary to improve our understanding of the occurrence of YF and other arboviruses and their dispersal in the landscape.

Potential impact of climate change on the species richness of subalpine plant species in the mountain national parks of South Korea

BackgroundSubalpine ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are particularly sensitive to climate change. In South Korea, the prediction of the species richness of subalpine plant species under future climate change is not well studied. Thus, this study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change on species richness of subalpine plant species (14 species) in the 17 mountain national parks (MNPs) of South Korea under climate change scenarios’ representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Migclim for the years 2050 and 2070.ResultsAltogether, 723 species occurrence points of 14 species and six selected variables were used in modeling. The models developed for all species showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.89 and TSS > 0.70). The results predicted a significant loss of species richness in all MNPs. Under RCP 4.5, the range of reduction was predicted to be 15.38–94.02% by 2050 and 21.42–96.64% by 2070. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, it will decline 15.38–97.9% by 2050 and 23.07–100% by 2070. The reduction was relatively high in the MNPs located in the central regions (Songnisan and Gyeryongsan), eastern region (Juwangsan), and southern regions (Mudeungsan, Wolchulsan, Hallasan, and Jirisan) compared to the northern and northeastern regions (Odaesan, Seoraksan, Chiaksan, and Taebaeksan).ConclusionsThis result indicates that the MNPs at low altitudes and latitudes have a large effect on the climate change in subalpine plant species. This study suggested that subalpine species are highly threatened due to climate change and that immediate actions are required to conserve subalpine species and to minimize the effect of climate change.