Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Market Research Articles

The relationship between public charging infrastructure deployment and other socio-economic factors and electric vehicle adoption in France

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) offer a promising choice to replace fossil-fuel dependent Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) with a low-emission transport solution. Governments, automotive manufacturers, and charging infrastructure operators have deployed market-boosting initiatives to incentivize purchase. Yet, their market diffusion is limited by several barriers. To shed light on the main barriers, and based on an extensive state-of-the-art, we used an original database and statistically analyzed the relationship of 21 socio-demographic, technical, and economic factors on BEV and PHEV market shares, separately, in 94 French departments from 2015 to 2019, using mixed-effect regression. We find different covariates related to BEV and PHEV sales, respectively, suggesting the two markets respond to different incentives. The number of available BEV/PHEV models and energy prices are positively correlated with BEV and PHEV adoption. Fast, ultrafast charger density and local incentives positively relate with BEV sales, while slow-and-normal charger density to PHEV sales. Contrarily, national subsidies, relative to vehicles’ prices, are negatively correlated with PHEVs sales and is open for further studies. Based on the results, policy recommendations are considered for the automotive industry, charging operators, and local authorities to draw a roadmap for electric mobility transition in France.

Comparative Analysis of Technical Route and Market Development for Light-Duty PHEV in China and the US

China and the US have become the world’s largest plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) markets. Powertrain architecture is the framework of PHEV technology which represents its technical route. The research on the market development and technical route of Chinese and American PHEV is helpful to grasp the internal law of the global PHEV market and technology situation, and thus is significant to lay out a development strategy and technical route but has not been sufficiently studied. Therefore, an evaluation method of three dimensions combining market sales, powertrain architectures and performance indexes was proposed for comparative analysis, and PHEV mainstream architectures were put forward. Besides, qualitative evaluation levels from nine dimensions were built for architecture analysis, and fuel consumption to curb weight (FC2CW) as an indicator was introduced for economy evaluation. Some conclusions can be drawn: (a) The most mainstream architecture in sales volume is four-wheel drive (4WD) Bridge, and that in models’ amount is P2 in China, while those respectively are PS and P2 in the US. This reflects that a difference exists between the choice of the consumers and that of the automakers, and another difference also exists between the two countries. (b) With the phasing down of subsidies, the single-motor parallel architecture may become the first choice of China’s next technical route, while the 4WD Bridge will still be the main architecture for sports utility vehicles (SUVs) or sports car. (c) Among the models of the top five sales, the types and sales of SUVs in China are significantly more, however, the fuel economy rankings of theirs in the US are relatively better. (d) It is difficult to distinguish which architecture has the absolute best economy, but the fuel economy of the series type in the two markets is not very good.

Comparison of plug-in electric vehicle adoption in the United States: A state by state approach

This paper examines the correlation between social, economic, geographic, and policy factors on plug-in electric vehicle adoption across U.S. states for the purpose of understanding: which factors are significantly correlated to variations in battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market shares, how those factors vary between BEV and PHEV markets, and how those factors compare with those identified as influential in driving early hybrid (HEV) markets. Our methodology includes a statistical analysis of new vehicle registration data from calendar year 2013 to test the relationship between PHEV and BEV market shares against statewide variables. Several of the factors that existing studies find to be important in earlier HEV markets are also correlated with 2013 PHEV or BEV market shares. We also find different sets of variables to be significantly correlated with PHEV and BEV market shares, respectively, which suggests that these markets are distinct. The differences between the factors that are correlated with PHEV and BEV market shares highlight the possibility that strategies for promoting the overall adoption of plug-in vehicles may not affect the two vehicle types equally. However, further analysis should be undertaken prior to developing policies and approaches based on these findings.

USING NATIONAL SURVEY RESPONDENTS AS CONSUMERS IN AN AGENT-BASED MODEL OF PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLE ADOPTION

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, if vehicle consumers are willing to adopt this new technology. Consequently, there is much interest in exploring PHEV market penetration models. In prior work, we developed an agent-based model (ABM) of potential PHEV consumer adoption that incorporated several spatial, social, and media influences to identify nonlinear interactions among potential leverage points that may impact PHEV market penetration. In developing that model, the need for additional data to properly inform both the decision-making rules and agent initialization became apparent. To address these issues, we recently conducted and analyzed an extensive consumer survey; in this paper, we modify the ABM to reflect the survey findings. A unique aspect is a one-to-one correspondence between agents in the model and survey respondents, and thus yielding distributions and cross correlations in agent attributes that accurately reflect the survey population. We also implement a used-PHEV market, and allow agents to purchase new or used compact PHEVs or vehicles of their current type. Based on our prior survey response analysis, our modified model includes a PHEV-technology threshold component, a multinomial logistic prediction of willingness to consider a compact PHEV based on dynamically changing attitudes, and agent-specific delay discounting functions that predict the amount agents are willing to pay up front for greater fuel savings. We thus independently account for agents’ discomfort with the new PHEV technology, their desire to drive a more environmentally friendly vehicle, and their willingness to pay a higher sticker price for a PHEV. Results of ten survey-based ABM scenarios are reported with implications for policy-makers and manufacturers. We believe close integration of the design of consumer surveys and the development of ABMs is a key step in developing useful decision-support models; this paper serves as an example of one way to achieve that.

Analysis of a consumer survey on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) show potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increase fuel efficiency, and offer driving ranges that are not limited by battery capacity. However, these benefits will not be realized if consumers do not adopt this new technology. Several agent-based models have been developed to model potential market penetration of PHEVs, but gaps in the available data limit the usefulness of these models. To address this, we administered a survey to 1000 stated US residents, using Amazon Mechanical Turk, to better understand factors influencing the potential for PHEV market penetration. Our analysis of the survey results reveals quantitative patterns and correlations that extend the existing literature. For example, respondents who felt most strongly about reducing US transportation energy consumption and cutting greenhouse gas emissions had, respectively, 71 and 44 times greater odds of saying they would consider purchasing a compact PHEV than those who felt least strongly about these issues. However, even the most inclined to consider a compact PHEV were not generally willing to pay more than a few thousand US dollars extra for the sticker price. Consistent with prior research, we found that financial and battery-related concerns remain major obstacles to widespread PHEV market penetration. We discuss how our results help to inform agent-based models of PHEV market penetration, governmental policies, and manufacturer pricing and marketing strategies to promote consumer adoption of PHEVs.

Survey of daily vehicle travel distance and impact factors in Beijing

Due to the importance of distribution of the Daily Vehicle Kilometers Travelled (DVKT) to design the powertrain of the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), as well as to predict the energy and emission reduction caused by BEV and PHEV market penetration, a comprehensive survey was carried out in Beijing in the year of 2009, and more than 500 questionnaires including DVKT and the related factors were collected. The analysis results show that the average DVKT of the private passenger vehicle in Beijing was 46.35 km, and 68.2% of the travels were within 50 km while only 9.1% were longer than 100 km. The detailed analysis implied that the travel purpose is the most important impact factor of DVKT. With the same electric range, the BEV can cover approximately 5% more of the daily trips in Beijing than in the U.S. With the same charge depleting range, the average fuel consumption of the PHEV used in Beijing is 10-40% lower than that in the U.S.

Optimizing and Diversifying the Electric Range of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles for U.S. Drivers

To provide useful information for automakers to design successful plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) products and for energy and environmental analysts to understand the social impact of PHEVs, this paper addresses the question of how many of the U.S. consumers, if buying a PHEV, would prefer what electric ranges. The Market-oriented Optimal Range for PHEV (MOR-PHEV) model is developed to optimize the PHEV electric range for each of 36,664 sampled individuals representing U.S. new vehicle drivers. The optimization objective is the minimization of the sum of costs on battery, gasoline, electricity and refueling hassle. Assuming no battery subsidy, the empirical results suggest that: 1) the optimal PHEV electric range approximates two thirds of one s typical daily driving distance in the near term, defined as $450/kWh battery delivered price and $4/gallon gasoline price. 2) PHEVs are not ready to directly compete with HEVs at today s situation, defined by the $600/kWh battery delivered price and the $3-$4/gallon gasoline price, but can do so in the near term. 3) PHEV10s will be favored by the market over longer-range PHEVs in the near term, but longer-range PHEVs can dominate the PHEV market if gasoline prices reach as high as $5-$6 per gallonmore » and/or battery delivered prices reach as low as $150-$300/kWh. 4) PHEVs can become much more attractive against HEVs in the near term if the electric range can be extended by only 10% with multiple charges per day, possible with improved charging infrastructure or adapted charging behavior. 5) the impact of a $100/kWh decrease in battery delivered prices on the competiveness of PHEVs against HEVs can be offset by about $1.25/gallon decrease in gasoline prices, or about 7/kWh increase in electricity prices. This also means that the impact of a $1/gallon decrease in gasoline prices can be offset by about 5/kWh decrease in electricity prices.« less

Time-dependent plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging based on national driving patterns and demographics

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are one promising technology for addressing concerns around petroleum consumption, energy security and greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is much uncertainty in the impact that PHEVs can have on energy consumption and related emissions, as they are dependent on vehicle technology, driving patterns, and charging behavior. A methodology is used to simulate PHEV charging and gasoline consumption based on driving pattern data in USDOT’s National Household Travel Survey. The method uses information from each trip taken by approximately 170,000 vehicles to track their battery state of charge throughout the day, and to determine the timing and quantity of electricity and gasoline consumption for a fleet of PHEVs. Scenarios were developed to examine the effects of charging location, charging rate, time of charging and battery size. Additionally, demographic information was examined to see how driver and household characteristics influence consumption patterns. Results showed that a compact vehicle with a 10.4kWh useable battery (approximately a 42mile [68km] all electric range) travels between 62.5% and 75.7% on battery electricity, depending on charging scenario. The percent of travel driven electrically (Utility Factor, UF) in a baseline charging scenario increased from 64.3% using 2001 NHTS data to 66.7% using 2009 data. The average UF was 63.5% for males and 72.9% for females and in both cases they are highly sensitive to age. Vehicle charging load profiles across charging scenarios and demographics show a varying effect on summertime peak load, which can be useful for PHEV market segmentation and electric utility planning.

Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis

The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today’s gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450 ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO 2 price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO 2 emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as regulating power providers: Case studies of Sweden and Germany

This study investigates plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) as providers of regulating power in the form of primary, secondary and tertiary frequency control. Previous studies have shown that PHEVs could generate substantial profits while providing ancillary services. This study investigates under what conditions PHEVs can generate revenues using actual market data, i.e. prices and activations of regulating power, from Sweden and Germany from four months in 2008. PHEV market participation is modelled for individual vehicles in a fleet subject to a simulated movement pattern. Costs for infrastructure and vehicle-to-grid equipment are not included in the analysis. The simulation results indicate that maximum average profits generated on the German markets are in the range 30–80 € per vehicle and month whereas the Swedish regulating power markets give no profit. In addition, an analysis is performed to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of PHEVs as regulating power providers. Based on the simulation results and the SWOT analysis, characteristics for an ideal regulating power market for PHEVs are presented.

Developing applicable driving cycle for retrofitted Plug-In Hybrid ElectricVehicles (PHEVs): environmental impact assessment

According to estimates by two market research companies [1], the proportion of hybrid vehicles in world vehicle registrations will increase from about 1.25 percent in 2010 to a maximum of 18 percent in 2020. A recent EURELECTRIC report [2] calls the plug-in hybrid “a logical development of the hybrid vehicle,” and envisions a potential PHEV market share in Europe of 8 to 20 percent by 2030. The global market for PHEVs is estimated to reach 130,000 vehicles by 2015 [3]. In light of this trend, standardization is needed. The primary objective of standardization is to lower development and production costs and ensure consistent quality, while at the same time satisfying all the demands of practical vehicle operation [4]. Adequate standards for measuring the performance or fuel consumption as well as the emission measurement standards do satisfy customer demand for comparable figures between hybrid models and conventional vehicles. The main objective of this paper is to provide a new adapted type approval test procedure for homologation purposes to better reflect the real environmental benefits of this type of vehicles. The driving cycle is based on the New European Driving Cycle. The environmental assessment together with the new Ecoscores [5] of retrofitted large family cars and SUV’s are evaluated.

Potential of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles to Reduce Petroleum Use

This paper delineates the various issues involved in developing reliable estimates of the petroleum use reduction that would result from the widespread introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Travel day data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) were analyzed to identify the share of vehicle miles of travel (VMT) that could be transferred to grid electricity. Various PHEV charge-depleting (CD) ranges were evaluated, and 100% CD mode and potential blended modes were analyzed. The NHTS data were also examined to evaluate the potential for PHEV battery charging multiple times a day. Data from the 2005 American Housing Survey (AHS) were analyzed to evaluate the availability of garages and carports for at-home charging of the PHEV battery. The AHS data were also reviewed by census region and household location within or outside metropolitan statistical areas. To illustrate the lag times involved, the historical new vehicle market share increases for the diesel power train in France (a highly successful case) and the emerging hybrid electric vehicles in the United States were examined. A new vehicle technology substitution model is applied to illustrate a historically plausible successful new PHEV market share expansion. The trends in U.S. light-duty vehicle sales and light-duty vehicle stock were evaluated to estimate the time required for hypothetical successful new PHEVs to achieve the ultimately attainable share of the existing vehicle stock. Only when such steps have been accomplished will the full oil savings potential for the nation be achieved.