Plate Boundary Zone Research Articles

Thermochronology and tectonics of the Leeward Antilles: Evolution of the southern Caribbean Plate boundary zone

blocks along its southern margin. New U/Pb, 40 Ar/ 39 Ar, apatite fission track, and apatite (U‐Th)/He data constrain quantitative thermal and exhumation histories, which have been used to propose a model for the tectonic evolution of the emergent parts of the Bonaire Block and the southern Caribbean Plate boundary zone. An east facing arc system intruded through an oceanic plateau during ∼90 to ∼87Ma and crops out onAruba. Subsequent structural displacements resulted in >80°C of cooling on Aruba during 70–60 Ma. In contrast, exhumation of the island arc sequence exposed on Bonaire occurred at 85–80 Ma and 55–45 Ma. Santonian exhumation on Bonaire occurred immediately subsequent to burial metamorphism and may have been driven by the collision of a west facing island arc with the Caribbean Plate. Island arc rocks intruded oceanic plateau rocks on Gran Roque at ∼65 Ma and exhumed rapidly at 55–45 Ma. We attribute Maastrichtian‐Danian exhumation on Aruba and early Eocene exhumation on Bonaire and Gran Roque to sequential diachronous accretion of their basement units to the South American Plate. Widespread unconformities indicate late Eocene subaerial exposure. Late Oligocene–early Miocene dextral transtension within the Bonaire Block drove subsidence and burial of crystalline basement rocks of the Leeward Antilles to ≤1 km. Late Miocene–recent transpression caused inversion and ≤1 km of exhumation, possibly as a result of the northward escape of the Maracaibo Block. Citation: van der Lelij, R., R. A. Spikings, A. C. Kerr, A. Kounov, M. Cosca, D. Chew, and D. Villagomez (2010), Thermochronology and tectonics of the Leeward Antilles: Evolution of the southern Caribbean Plate boundary zone, Tectonics, 29, TC6003, doi:10.1029/2009TC002654.

Beyond the Motagua and Polochic faults: Active strike-slip faulting along the Western North America–Caribbean plate boundary zone

I investigate the role of two strike-slip faults in the tectonics of the western North America–Caribbean plate margin. The Ixcan fault, located in Guatemala north of the Polochic fault, is seismically active, with earthquakes of magnitude up to 5.7 reported recently. Fault-plane solutions along this curvilinear but generally E–W trending fault indicate left-lateral, strike-slip displacement. Several historic earthquakes appear to have taken place along the Ixcan fault since 1728, the largest one being the 1816 event ( M = 7.5). The NW–SE trending Concordia fault in southeastern Mexico appears to be the site of the great ( M = 7.6) earthquake of 1902. Isoseismals for this event suggest shallow, left-lateral strike-slip faulting. I propose a seismotectonic model in which both faults are part of the deformation associated to the North America–Caribbean plate boundary zone. Transpressive structures are found in the fault steps between strike-slip fault systems.

Extension in Mona Passage, Northeast Caribbean

As shown by the recent M w 7.0 Haiti earthquake, intra-arc deformation, which accompanies the subduction process, can present seismic and tsunami hazards to nearby islands. Spatially-limited diffuse tectonic deformation within the Northeast Caribbean Plate Boundary Zone likely led to the development of the submerged Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. GPS geodetic data and a moderate to high level of seismicity indicate that extension within the region is ongoing. Newly-collected high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and multi-channel seismic reflection profiles and previously-collected samples are used here to determine the tectonic evolution of the Mona Passage intra-arc region. The passage is floored almost completely by Oligocene–Pliocene carbonate platform strata, which have undergone submarine and subaerial erosion. Structurally, the passage is characterized by W- to NNW-trending normal faults that offset the entire thickness of the Oligo–Pliocene carbonate platform rocks. The orientation of these faults is compatible with the NE-oriented extension vector observed in GPS data. Fault geometry best fits an oblique extension model rather than previously proposed single-phase, poly-phase, bending-moment, or rotation extension models. The intersection of these generally NW-trending faults in Mona Passage with the N–S oriented faults of Mona Canyon may reflect differing responses of the brittle upper-crust, along an arc–forearc rheological boundary, to oblique subduction along the Puerto Rico trench. Several faults within the passage, if ruptured completely, are long enough to generate earthquakes with magnitudes on the order of M w 6.5–7.

Inception of the eastern California shear zone and evolution of the Pacific‐North American plate boundary: From kinematics to geodynamics

The San Andreas Fault (SAF) is the transform boundary between the Pacific and the North American plates, yet up to 25% of the relative plate motion is now accommodated by the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ). Here we investigate the inception of the ECSZ and its geodynamic interactions with the SAF using a 3‐D viscoelastoplastic finite element model. For a given fault configuration of the plate boundary zone, the model simulates long‐term slip on the faults and plastic strain outside the faults. Our results show that the formation of the Big Bend of the SAF around 5–12 Ma impeded fault slip and localized strain along the ECSZ, causing its inception. Development of the ECSZ was further enhanced by the activation of the Garlock Fault (GF) and lithospheric weakening caused by the encroachment of the Basin and Range extension. Similarly, the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) in southern California developed along a belt of localized strain, which resulted from the formation of the restraining bend along the San Bernardino Mountains segment of the SAF ∼2 Myr ago. Once activated, the SJF reduced slip on both the southern SAF and the ECSZ across the Mojave Desert. These results indicate causative relationship between the SAF and the ECSZ. The inception of the ECSZ and other young faults is the consequence of the evolving SAF plate boundary zone that continuously adjusts itself to accommodate the relative plate motion.

A Long-term Forecast of Shallow Seismicity Based on the Global Strain Rate Map

The Global Strain Rate Map (GSRM) of Kreemer et al. (2003) was the main result of Project II-8 of the International Lithosphere Program. The GSRM is a numerical velocity gradient tensor field model for the entire Earth's surface that describes the spatial variations of horizontal strain rate tensor components, rotation rates, and velocities. The model consists of 25 rigid spherical plates and ∼25,000 0.6° by 0.5° deformable grid areas within the diffuse plate boundary zones ( e.g. , western North America, central Asia, Alpine-Himalaya belt). The model provides an estimate of the horizontal strain rates in diffuse plate boundary zones as well as the motions of the spherical caps. This is one of the first successful models of its kind that includes the kinematics of plate boundary zones in the description of global plate kinematics. The vast majority of the data used to obtain the GSRM comes from horizontal velocity measurements obtained using Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. The latest model version of May 2004 ( i.e. , GSRM version 1.2) includes 5,170 velocities for 4,214 sites worldwide (Holt et al. 2005). Most geodetic velocities are measured within plate boundary zones. The observed velocities are obtained from 86 different (mostly published) studies. The model includes additional constraints on the style (not magnitude) of the strain rate tensor inferred from moment tensors of shallow earthquakes. In addition, geologic strain rates in central Asia inferred from Quaternary faulting data are fit simultaneously with the geodetic velocities to improve the model there. See Kreemer et al. (2000, 2003) for more details. It was always a goal of the GSRM project to support long-term forecasts of seismicity based on tectonic deformation. Two recent developments make this especially timely. First, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP; Jordan et al. 2007) is accepting global …

Tectonics, basin subsidence mechanisms, and paleogeography of the Caribbean-South American plate boundary zone

Using a mega-regional dataset that includes over 20,000 km of on- and offshore 2D seismic lines and 12 wells, we illustrate three different stages of fault formation and basin evolution in the Caribbean arc-South American continent collisional zone. Transpressional deformation associated with oblique collision of the Caribbean arc migrates diachronously over a distance of ∼1500 km from western Venezuela in Paleogene time (∼57 Ma) to a zone of active deformation in the eastern offshore Trinidad area. Each diachronous stage of pre-, syn-, and post-collisional basin formation is accompanied by distinct patterns of fault families. We use subsidence histories from wells to link patterns of long-term basinal subsidence to periods of activity of the fault families. Stage one of arc-continent collision Initial collision is characterized by overthrusting of the south- and southeastward-facing Caribbean arc and forearc terranes onto the northward-subducting Mesozoic passive margin of northern South America. Northward flexure of the South American craton produces a foreland basin between the thrust front and the downward-flexed continental crust that is initially filled by clastic sediments shed both from the colliding arc and cratonic areas to the south. As the collision extends eastward towards Trinidad, this same process continues with progressively younger foreland basins formed to the east. On the overthrusting Caribbean arc and forearc terranes, north-south rifting adjacent to the collision zone initiates and is controlled by forward momentum of southward-thrusting arc terranes combined with slab pull of the underlying and subducting, north-dipping South American slab. Uplift of fold-thrust belts arc-continent suture induces rerouting of large continental drainages parallel to the collisional zone and to the axis of the foreland basins. Stage two This late stage of arc-continent collision is characterized by termination of deformation in one segment of the fold-thrust belt as convergent deformation shifts eastward. Rebound of the collisional belt is produced as the north-dipping subducted oceanic crust breaks off from the passive margin, inducing inversion of preexisting normal faults as arc-continent convergence reaches a maximum. Strain partitioning also begins to play an important role as oblique convergence continues, accommodating deformation by the formation of parallel, strike-slip fault zones and backthrusting (southward subduction of the Caribbean plate beneath the South Caribbean deformed belt). As subsidence slows in the foreland basins, sedimentation transitions from a marine underfilled basin to an overfilled continental basin. Offshore, sedimentation is mostly marine, sourced by the collided Caribbean terranes, localized islands and carbonate deposition. Stage three This final stage of arc-continent collision is characterized by: 1) complete slab breakoff of the northward-dipping South American slab; 2) east-west extension of the Caribbean arc as it elongates parallel to its strike forming oblique normal faults that produce deep rift and half-grabens; 3) continued strain partitioning (strike-slip faulting and folding). The subsidence pattern in the Caribbean basins is more complex than interpreted before, showing a succession of extensional and inversion events. The three tectonic stages closely control the structural styles and traps, source rock distribution, and stratigraphic traps for the abundant hydrocarbon resources of the on- and offshore areas of Venezuela and Trinidad.

Regional provenance study of Eocene clastic sedimentary rocks within the South America–Caribbean plate boundary zone using detrital zircon geochronology

Previous on- and offshore studies have postulated that the Caribbean plate has translated hundreds of kilometers eastward during the Cenozoic along strike-slip and oblique thrust faults bounding the northern margin of the continental South America plate. Two previously proposed tectonic-sedimentary models to explain the complex linkages between plate motions and sedimentation within the broad plate boundary zone include: 1) eastward bulldozing by the Caribbean plate of a single, large point source, thick Eocene proto-Maracaibo deltaic system of northwestern South America, over 1000 km to the east and incorporation of these continentally derived sediments into the ∼ 12-km-thick Barbados accretionary prism along the leading edge of the Caribbean plate; and 2) eastward bulldozing by less than 300 km of smaller point and line sources of Eocene and younger clastic sediments derived from erosion of the Guyana shield located in north-central and northeastern South America. We test both models by sampling eight Eocene localities that span a 1200-km-length of the plate boundary zone from the proto-Maracaibo delta in western Venezuela to Barbados Island in the subaerial part of the large accretionary prism bounding the eastern margin of the Caribbean plate. Ages of 972 single grains from samples at these eight localities support the multiple-source model, in which the Barbados prism was partly constructed from the bulldozing and incorporation of smaller point and line sources derived from older-than 1500 Ma crustal provinces of the Precambrian Guyana shield in central and northeastern South America. Eocene clastic sediments of the proto-Maracaibo delta derived from Paleozoic and Precambrian crustal provinces in northwestern South America are distinct in their ranges of detrital zircon ages from the ranges of the Guyana shield sources to the east.

Notes on three earthquakes in Santiago de Cuba (14.10.1800, 18.09.1826, 07.07.1842)

Damage and parameters of the earthquakes of October 14, 1800, September 18, 1826, and July 7, 1842, in Santiago de Cuba, in southeastern Cuba, have been studied. A quantitative re-evaluation of the size of the events is not feasible due to a lack of data. Hence, we have reinterpreted existing data to establish likely intensities and determine the epicentral region of occurrence. Available data do not permit accurate depth determinations. Intensities estimated from contemporary documentary sources give maximum values of 8, 8–9 and 8 (MSK scale), respectively. These seismic shocks were located in the Southeastern Seismotectonic Province of Cuba, Plate Boundary Zone Caribbean—North Atmerican. The earthquakes are associated with the Oriente fault system.

The Bayamo Earthquake (Cuba) of the 18 October 1551

Using contemporary and original documents from the Archivo General de Indias it has been possible to complete the data for the 18 October 1551 earthquake in Cuba. The seism took place at midday, approximately. It had foreshocks and aftershocks. In Bayamo, 7 inhabitants were injured, and the town was severely affected. Maximum seismic intensity was IX degrees on the MSK scale, and the area of perceptibility is estimated at 40,000 km2. Liquefaction processes and soil type in Bayamo contributed to the damage. This locality is in the Eastern region of the island, and continues to suffer the most and the strongest seismic events. The epicenter was in the southern marine area of the western segment of Oriente trough (19.6 N 77.8 W, h = 15 km, Ms = 6.6), where there is a crossing of faults, and neotectonics and focal mechanisms are affected by transtension, although the Bartlett-Cayman region’s tendency to left-lateral strike-slip movement is maintained, in the Caribbean and North American plate boundary zone.

Block Modeling with Connected Fault-Network Geometries and a Linear Elastic Coupling Estimator in Spherical Coordinates

Geodetic observations of interseismic deformation provide constraints on the partitioning of fault slip across plate boundary zones, the spatial distribution of both elastic and inelastic strain accumulation, and the nature of the fault system evolution. Here we describe linear block theory, which decomposes surface velocity fields into four components: (1) plate rotations, (2) elastic deformation from faults with kinematically consistent slip rates, (3) elastic deformation from faults with spatially variable coupling, and (4) homogeneous intrablock strain. Elastic deformation rates are computed for each fault segment in a homogeneous elastic half-space using multiple optimal planar Cartesian coordinate systems to minimize areal distortion and triangular dislocation elements to accurately represent complex fault system geometry. Block motions, fault-slip rates, elastic coupling, and internal block strain rates are determined simultaneously using a linear estimator with constraints from both geodetically determined velocity fields and geologic fault-slip rate estimates. We also introduce algorithms for efficiently implementing alternative fault-network geometries to quantify parameter sensitivity to nonlinear perturbations in model geometry.

Geodetic constraints on active tectonics of the Western Mediterranean: Implications for the kinematics and dynamics of the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary zone

We present GPS observations in Morocco and adjacent areas of Spain from 15 continuous (CGPS) and 31 survey-mode (SGPS) sites extending from the stable part of the Nubian plate to central Spain. We determine a robust velocity field for the W Mediterranean that we use to constrain models for the Iberia-Nubia plate boundary. South of the High Atlas Mountain system, GPS motions are consistent with Nubia plate motions from prior geodetic studies. We constrain shortening in the Atlas system to <1.5 mm/yr, 95% confidence level. North of the Atlas Mountains, the GPS velocities indicate Nubia motion with respect to Eurasia, but also a component of motion normal to the direction of Nubia-Eurasia motion, consisting of southward translation of the Rif Mountains in N Morocco at rates exceeding 5 mm/yr. This southward motion appears to be directly related to Miocene opening of the Alboran Sea. The Betic Mountain system north of the Alboran Sea is characterized by WNW motion with respect to Eurasia at ∼1–2 mm/yr, paralleling Nubia-Eurasia relative motion. In addition, sites located in the Betics north of the southerly moving Rif Mountains also indicate a component of southerly motion with respect to Eurasia. We interpret this as indicating that deformation associated with Nubia-Eurasia plate motion extends into the southern Betics, but also that the Betic system may be affected by the same processes that are causing southward motion of the Rif Mountains south of the Alboran Sea. Kinematic modeling indicates that plate boundary geometries that include a boundary through the Straits of Gibraltar are most compatible with the component of motion in the direction of relative plate motion, but that two additional blocks (Alboran-Rif block, Betic Mountain block), independent of both Nubia and Eurasia are needed to account for the motions of the Rif and Betic Mountains normal to the direction of relative plate motion. We speculate that the southward motions of the Alboran-Rif and Betic blocks may be related to mantle flow, possibly induced by southward rollback of the subducted Nubian plate beneath the Alboran Sea and Rif Mountains.

The strength of faults in the crust in the western United States

The strength of secondary faults within plate-boundary zones and of master faults like the San Andreas has been controversial for decades. We use a global finite-element code with a variable-resolution grid and global plate-driving forces to determine whether the effective friction µ on the San Andreas fault is high ( µ* 0.6–1), intermediate ( µ* 0.3–0.5) or low ( µ* ≤ 0.2), whether a single value of µ* can be used for all mapped faults within California, and whether weakening of the ductile lower crust associated with faulting is important. We compare our model results with existing data on fault slip-rates, GPS velocities, stress field, and earthquake depth distribution. The comparison indicates that all faults are weak ( µ* ≤ 0.2), and that additional weakening of major faults is important. All viable solutions also indicate that weakening of the lower crust below major faults is necessary. The strongest faults in the region have µ* in the range 0.2–0.05. The San Andreas fault is a very weak fault among weak faults, with µ* < 0.05. Our results also show that a global code with appropriate grid-refinement and driven by global plate motions can reasonably reproduce regional tectonics.

Deformation of the Northwestern Okhotsk Plate: How is it happening?

Abstract. The Eurasia (EU) – North America (NA) plate boundary zone across Northeast Asia still presents many open questions within the plate tectonic paradigm. Constraining the geometry and number of plates or microplates present in the plate boundary zone is especially difficult because of the location of the EU-NA euler pole close to or even upon the EU-NA boundary. One of the major challenges remains the geometry of the Okhotsk plate (OK). whose northwestern portion terminates on the EU-OK-NA triple junction and is thus caught and compressed between converging EU and NA. We suggest that this leads to a coherent and understandable large scale deformation pattern of mostly northwest-southeast trending strike-slip faults which split Northwest OK into several extruding slivers. When the fault geometry is analysed together with space geodetic and focal mechanism data it suggests a central block which is extruding faster bordered east and west by progressively slower extruding blocks until the OK plate boundary faults are encountered. Taking into account elastic loading from both the intra-OK faults and the OK-Pacific (PA) boundary reconciles geodetic motions with geologic slip rates on at least the OK-NA boundary which corresponds to the Ulakhan fault.

Reply to comment by Riccardo Caputo and Marcello Bianca on “Late Cenozoic uplift of southern Italy deduced from fluvial and marine sediments: Coupling between surface processes and lower-crustal flow” by Rob Westaway and David Bridgland; improved uplift modelling of the Gulf of Taranto marine terraces

The well-developed Pleistocene marine terrace staircase along the Gulf of Taranto coastline, southern Italy, has been extensively studied over many decades. The rivers in this region have also formed long-timescale terrace staircases. Our paper “Late Cenozoic uplift of southern Italy deduced from fluvial and marine sediments: coupling between surface processes and lower-crustal flow” (Quaternary International 175, 86–124) presented original field observations aimed at testing contradictory hypotheses for the mode of origin of this marine terrace staircase and developed age models for the marine and fluvial successions. We also proposed, on the basis of physics-based numerical modelling, that the Quaternary uplift of this region is primarily the isostatic response to erosion and has thus been driven by climate (which has forced the erosion), despite the location within a plate-boundary zone. However, Bianca and Caputo (Quaternary International 204, 98–102) have questioned our use of the data and disputed the logic of our numerical modelling. Notwithstanding minor corrections and updating, from which we present revised uplift modelling, we uphold the substantial content of our original paper as valid and consider it to be a tenable interpretation of the terrace record in the study region. We also discuss underlying issues, including strategies for age-control and the causes of fluvial terrace development.

Subduction erosion modes: Comparing finite element numerical models with the geological record

During subduction erosion, the upper plate is tectonically eroded by the subducting plate and carried into the mantle. The geological record suggests that subduction erosion is a fundamental process at subduction margins; however the underlying causes are not well constrained. Finite-element numerical models of ocean–continent subduction are used to investigate the roles of crustal frictional strength, subduction angle, and convergence rate in subduction erosion processes. Subduction erosion occurs in models in which the plate boundary zone is moderately strong, due to either high frictional strength or shallow angle of subduction. The models exhibit two distinct modes of subduction erosion: (1) steady, with slow trench migration rates (< 4 km Ma − 1 ), subsidence in the remaining forearc, and a decrease in the angle of subduction, in which the edge of the continental plate is eroded in small blocks, and (2) unsteady, with fast trench migration rates (⋙ 15 km Ma − 1 ), subsidence at the end of the process, and an increase in the angle of subduction, in which a large block of continental forearc is removed. The unsteady mode is compatible with the sudden migration of the volcanic arc into the continental interior, a concurrent hiatus in arc volcanic production, and geochemical signatures showing crustal (forearc) contamination in the magma source region when arc volcanism renews in its new location. Both modes are inhibited by the presence of a thick sediment layer within the subduction zone, and neither mode requires the presence of topographic asperities on the lower plate. In natural subduction zones, subduction erosion may initially occur through steady erosion at the edge of the continental plate. As material is removed, the subduction angle may gradually decrease, increasing the strength of the plate boundary zone. The increased strength may lead to failure in the continental interior, unsteady removal of a large forearc block and relocation of the subduction zone into the upper plate where the cycle may repeat. The proposed cycle may explain observed patterns in the Andean margin, including steady and unsteady erosion recorded in the geological record and along-strike variation in present-day subduction angles.

Morphostructural analysis of Jamaica

To Jamaica, macroblock in differential ascent in the plate boundary zone of the Caribbean—North America, a set of morphostructural and geological methods and procedures was applied that permitted its neostructure to be explained. It is composed of two mesoblocks, 11 blocks, 29 microblocks, and 65 nanoblocks. This group configures a heterogeneous network of morphoalignments and knots; knot N1 (Montego) and N11 (Kingston) being the most active. The main watershed was delimited, with an E-W strike, that reflects in its inflections the influence of a shear tectonic, mainly ancient, and that watershed divides the insular territory into two sectors (of rectangular figures) to the north and to the south. The river network is conditioned, in sectors and fundamentally, by tectonic factors. From a morphometric point of view the greater levels of uplifting (>1000 m) are located in the eastern part, in the Blue Mountains, though the estimated raising sectors denote that on its edges the recent intensity reaches values of ∼500 m. The contemporary faulting is more important in the marine parts of the north and of the south zones where the strongest earthquakes are located; however, this element is linked differently with the disruptive structures inherited, modified and active of the emerged part, those which determined that they are neither vast nor homogeneous. The seismic activity is justified by its space—time location in a transpression area of the plate boundary zone and where six relevant seismogenetic zones exist. In these elements the larger geological hazard is framed.

Contribution of gravitational potential energy differences to the global stress field

SUMMARY Modelling the lithospheric stress field has proved to be an efficient means of determining the role of lithospheric versus sublithospheric buoyancies and also of constraining the driving forces behind plate tectonics. Both these sources of buoyancies are important in generating the lithospheric stress field. However, these sources and the contribution that they make are dependent on a number of variables, such as the role of lateral strength variation in the lithosphere, the reference level for computing the gravitational potential energy per unit area (GPE) of the lithosphere, and even the definition of deviatoric stress. For the mantle contribution, much depends on the mantle convection model, including the role of lateral and radial viscosity variations, the spatial distribution of density buoyancies, and the resolution of the convection model. GPE differences are influenced by both lithosphere density buoyancies and by radial basal tractions that produce dynamic topography. The global lithospheric stress field can thus be divided into (1) stresses associated with GPE differences (including the contribution from radial basal tractions) and (2) stresses associated with the contribution of horizontal basal tractions. In this paper, we investigate only the contribution of GPE differences, both with and without the inferred contribution of radial basal tractions. We use the Crust 2.0 model to compute GPE values and show that these GPE differences are not sufficient alone to match all the directions and relative magnitudes of principal strain rate axes, as inferred from the comparison of our depth integrated deviatoric stress tensor field with the velocity gradient tensor field within the Earth's plate boundary zones. We argue that GPE differences calibrate the absolute magnitudes of depth integrated deviatoric stresses within the lithosphere; shortcomings of this contribution in matching the stress indicators within the plate boundary zones can be corrected by considering the contribution from horizontal tractions associated with density buoyancy driven mantle convection. Deviatoric stress magnitudes arising from GPE differences are in the range of 1–4 TN m−1, a part of which is contributed by dynamic topography. The EGM96 geoid data set is also used as a rough proxy for GPE values in the lithosphere. However, GPE differences from the geoid fail to yield depth integrated deviatoric stresses that can provide a good match to the deformation indicators. GPE values inferred from the geoid have significant shortcomings when used on a global scale due to the role of dynamically support of topography. Another important factor in estimating the depth integrated deviatoric stresses is the use of the correct level of reference in calculating GPE. We also elucidate the importance of understanding the reference pressure for calculating deviatoric stress and show that overestimates of deviatoric stress may result from either simplified 2-D approximations of the thin sheet equations or the assumption that the mean stress is equal to the vertical stress.

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5≤ M ≤7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ≥7.5 and to 4.5% for M ≥8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ≥8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ≥6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

Neogene–Quaternary tectonic evolution of the Leeward Antilles islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao) from fault kinematic analysis

Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao are islands aligned along the crest of a 200-km-long segment of the east–west-trending Leeward Antilles ridge within the broad Caribbean–South America plate boundary zone presently characterized by east–west, right-lateral strike-slip motion. The crust of the Leeward Antilles ridge represents the western segment of the Cretaceous–early Cenozoic Great Arc of the Caribbean, which obliquely collided, with the continental margin of northern South America in early Cenozoic time. Following the collision, the ridge was affected by folding and was segmented by oblique, northwest-striking normal faults that have produced steep-sided, northwest-trending, elongate islands and narrow shelves separated by deepwater, sediment-filled and fault-controlled basins. In this paper, we present the first fault slip observations on the Neogene carbonate rocks that cover large areas of all three islands. Our main objective is to quantify the timing and nature of Neogene to Quaternary phases of faulting and folding that have affected the structure and topography of this area including offshore sedimentary basins that are being explored for their petroleum potential. These data constrain three fault phases that have affected Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao and likely the adjacent offshore areas: 1) NW–SE-directed late Paleogene compression; 2) middle Miocene syndepositional NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW extension that produced deep rift basins transverse to the east–west-trending Leeward Antilles ridge; and 3) Pliocene–Quaternary NNE-trending compression that produced NW–SE-trending anticlines present on Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire islands. Our new observations – that include detailed relationships between striated fault planes, paleostress tensors, and bedding planes – show that prominent bedding dips of Neogene limestone on Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao were produced by regional tectonic shortening across the entire Leeward Antilles ridge rather than by localized, syndepositional effects as proposed by previous workers. We interpret Pliocene–Quaternary NNE-directed shortening effects on the Leeward Antilles ridge as the result of northeastward extrusion or “tectonic escape” of continental areas of western Venezuela combined with southeastward shallow subduction of the Caribbean plate beneath the ridge.

La Galite Archipelago (Tunisia, North Africa): Stratigraphic and petrographic revision and insights for geodynamic evolution of the Maghrebian Chain

The location of the La Galite Archipelago on the Internal/External Zones of the Maghrebian Chain holds strong interest for the reconstruction of the geodynamic evolution of the Mesomediterranean Microplate-Africa Plate Boundary Zone. New stratigraphic and petrographic data on sedimentary successions intruded upon by plutonic rocks enabled a better definition of the palaeogeographic and palaeotectonic evolutionary model of the area during the early-middle Miocene. The lower Miocene sedimentary units ( La Galite Flysch and Numidian-like Flysch) belong to the Mauritanian (internal) and Massylian (external) sub-Domains of the Maghrebian Chain, respectively. These deposits are related to a typical syn-orogenic deposition in the Maghrebian Flysch Basin Domain, successively backthrusted above the internal units. The backthrusting age is post-Burdigalian (probably Langhian-Serravallian) and the compressional phase represents the last stage in the building of the accretionary wedge of the Maghrebian orogen. These flysch units may be co-relatable to the similar well-known formations along the Maghrebian and Betic Chains. The emplacement of potassic peraluminous magmatism, caused local metamorphism in the Late Serravallian-Early Tortonian (14–10 Ma), after the last compressional phase (backthrusting), during an extensional tectonic event. This extensional phase is probably due to the opening of a slab break-off in the deep subduction system. La Galite Archipelago represents a portion of the Maghrebian Flysch Basin tectonically emplaced above the southern margin of the “Mesomediterranean Microplate” which separated the Piemontese-Ligurian Ocean from a southern oceanic branch of the Tethys (i.e. the Maghrebian Flysch Basin). The possible presence of an imbricate thrust system between La Galite Archipelago and northern Tunisia may be useful to exclude the petroleum exploration from the deformed sectors of the offshore area considered.