Plant Shutdown Research Articles

A Markov regime-switching event response model: beef price spread response to processing capacity shocks

AbstractThis research introduces a new method for event studies in time-series analysis named the Markov regime-switching event response model (MS-ERM). The MS-ERM is a comprehensive approach that integrates two different event study approaches: 1) measuring the impact of an event through structural shift and 2) measuring the impact via additional distributional components. As an empirical application, the study measures the impact of beef-packing plant closures on the weekly live-to-cutout beef price spread. The results indicate that the MS-ERM is a promising tool for event studies, particularly when an empirical dataset has both groups of events that cause and do not cause structural changes.

Defining and Mitigating Flow Instabilities in Open Channels Subjected to Hydropower Operation: Formulations and Experiments

A thorough literature review was conducted on the effects of free surface oscillation in open channels, highlighting the risks of the occurrence of positive and negative surge waves that can lead to overtopping. Experimental analyses were developed to focus on the instability of the flow due to constrictions, gate blockages, and the start-up and shutdown of hydropower plants. A forebay at the downstream end of a tunnel or canal provides the right conditions for the penstock inlet and regulates the temporary demand of the turbines. In tests with a flow of 60 to 100 m3/h, the effects of a gradually and rapidly varying flow in the free surface profile were analyzed. The specific energy and total momentum are used in the mathematical characterization of the boundaries along the free surface water profile. A sudden turbine stoppage or a sudden gate or valve closure can lead to hydraulic drilling and overtopping of the infrastructure wall. At the same time, a PID controller, if programmed appropriately, can reduce flooding by 20–40%. Flooding is limited to 0.8 m from an initial amplitude of 2 m, with a dissipation wave time of between 25 and 5 s, depending on the flow conditions and the parameters of the PID characteristics.

The Impact of Trade Openness on the Industry Reality in Iraq for the Period (2004-2022)

Iraq is one of the prominent countries that used to have important industries and enjoyed consumer acceptance, competitiveness, and presence in regional and global markets. However, after 2003 and due to trade liberalization, there needed to be more in the structure of the Iraqi economy. This directly affected the reality of the Iraqi industrial sector, leading to the entry of goods and products from all over the world. With the increase in population and government expenditures, which relied on commodity imports to meet local needs, all aspects of industry in the country were eliminated. The importance of research lies in shedding light on the role of international trade (import and export) in global economies, highlighting the shortcomings in trade policy management, demonstrating the impact of trade openness on the industrial sector's contribution to economic development, and the need for realistic measures to rescue this vital sector from deterioration in Iraq. Moreover, the research problem is based on the direct negative impact of trade liberalization policy on the reality of the industrial sector in the country. Increased reliance on foreign sources to meet local economic needs is attributed to the production apparatus's deficiencies, backwardness, and stagnation, rendering it unable to meet total domestic demand. The research aims to shed light on the role of foreign trade in global economies and to clarify the shortcomings in trade policy management, as well as the extent of the impact of trade liberalization on the reality of the industrial sector in achieving economic development. The research found that the industrial sector in Iraq was negatively affected throughout the period (2004-2022) due to the compulsory trade liberalization policy, which led to the shutdown of factories and plants because of the low prices of imported goods. Paper type Research paper.

The Impact of Trade Openness on the Reality Industry in Iraq for the Period (2004-2022)

Iraq is one of the prominent countries that used to have important industries and enjoyed consumer acceptance, as well as competitiveness and presence in regional and global markets. However, after 2003 and due to trade liberalization, there was a general weakness in the structure of the Iraqi economy. This directly affected the reality of the Iraqi industrial sector, leading to the entry of goods and products from all over the world. With the increase in population and government expenditures, which relied on commodity imports to meet local needs, all aspects of industry in the country were eliminated. The importance of research lies in shedding light on the role of international trade (import and export) in global economies, highlighting the shortcomings in trade policy management, demonstrating the impact of trade openness on the industrial sector's contribution to economic development, and the need for realistic measures to rescue this vital sector from deterioration in Iraq. And the problem of the research is based on the direct negative impact of trade liberalization policy on the reality of the industrial sector in the country. Increased reliance on foreign sources to meet local economic needs is attributed to the deficiencies, backwardness, and stagnation of the production apparatus, rendering it unable to meet total domestic demand. The aim of the research is to shed light on the role of foreign trade in global economies and to clarify the shortcomings in trade policy management, as well as the extent of the impact of trade liberalization on the reality of the industrial sector in achieving economic development. The research found that the industrial sector in Iraq was negatively affected throughout the period (2004-2022) due to the compulsory trade liberalization policy, which led to the shutdown of factories and plants as a result of the low prices of imported goods. Paper type Research paper.

Key environmental parameters and numerical prediction model of jellyfish bloom in Qingchuan Bay Nuclear Power Plant, China

In recent years, there has been a notable increase in cooling water intake blockage caused by marine organism blooms at coastal nuclear power plants worldwide, resulting in shutdowns of nuclear power plants and large economic losses. A sizable portion of these incidents were caused by blooms from jellyfish, a planktonic invertebrate with a unique growth pattern. Suitable external conditions are conducive to the rapid growth of jellyfish, and blooms can occur within a few days. In order to better predict jellyfish bloom and enable nuclear power plants to prepare for it in advance, this study explores the numerical relationship between jellyfish biomass and environmental parameters. A series of time windows (evaluation intervals) were defined and constructed by a time-series recursive approach, which solved the problem of poor correlation between jellyfish biomass and environmental parameters at non-bloom points. The optimal time window length D = 10 was obtained, and the key environmental parameters affecting jellyfish biomass were screened as sea surface temperature, salinity, voltage value, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll. According to the ADF and KPSS tests, the key parameters have no significant time dependence, which ensures the stability and reliability of the subsequent predictions. The jellyfish bloom prediction model was derived by calculating the score F through the recursive Principal Component Analysis of the key environmental parameter in the time interval preceding the prediction point. The sudden change moments of score F correspond well to the jellyfish bloom moments, and the sudden change moments are all advanced for a period of time compared to the bloom time, which can provide valuable time for the nuclear power plant to organize manpower to deal with the blockage. Finally, a maximum score F threshold model was proposed to be coupled with the jellyfish bloom prediction model to provide a more robust basis for early warning of jellyfish at nuclear power plants.

Income or Leisure? On the Hidden Benefits of (Un)Employment

Do unemployed people benefit from more free time, while consumption is the sole motive for employed people to accept a life with less available time? Does this apply equally to men and women? To inform ongoing policy debates on how to address the problem of unemployment, we provide a comprehensive discussion of the traditionally assumed trade-off between income and leisure in labor supply decisions, which has been contested for a variety of reasons. Using rich German panel data, we compare non-employed individuals after plant closures with employed individuals regarding their subjective well-being obtained from time use and income. We find that increased non-working time through unemployment translates into higher free-time satisfaction, while also improving satisfaction with family life, as a possible hidden benefit of being unemployed when having more time for home production. Meanwhile, there is a strong decline in satisfaction with household income, especially among unemployed men, which cannot be explained solely by a lower level of income. We inspect the role of social norms in this context and argue that individuals obtain identity utility through having a job that ensures being self-sufficient, as a hidden benefit of employment. Based on studying unemployed workers transitions into retirement and a separately conducted survey experiment, we provide strong evidence on the importance of the social norm of earning a living from work. Our experiment also shows that home production is a way of mitigating the pressure to comply with this norm, which is true for men and women alike.

Subjective Career Success of Industrial Workers a Decade After Mass Redundancy

This study examines which factors influence the long-term subjective career success of industrial workers, who experienced mass redundancy during the Great Recession. We used two tailor-made surveys to analyze how workers assess the impact of plant closure on their subjective career success. Higher educational attainment and a more internal locus of control correlate with a more positive assessment of post-redundancy career success. We also observe differences in workers’ evaluations due to differing plant closure modalities on the meso-level.

High rates of hydrogen sulfide emissions measured from marginal oil wells near Austin and San Antonio, Texas

Marginal oil and gas wells, or wells that produce less than 15 barrels of oil equivalent per day, represent 80% of actively producing wells in the United States, although they produce less than 10% of energy supply. Marginal wells are a disproportionate source of methane (CH4) relative to their production, and they emit harmful air pollutants, such as benzene and other hydrocarbons found in oil and natural gas. We made direct measurements of CH4 and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) emissions from 46 wellheads in the Luling Field, Caldwell County, Texas, just east of the Austin/San Antonio Metroplex. We found that these wells are venting natural gas and are a large source of hydrogen sulfide (H2S), a poisonous air pollutant. Hydrogen sulfide emission rates ranged from 0 to 5 ± 0.5 g H2S hr−1 with an average emission rate of 1.6 ± 0.1 g H2S hr−1. We also found ambient concentrations of H2S at dangerous levels (>100 ppm) near many of the wells. Methane emission rates were in line with previous studies of marginal wells, ranging from 0.0 to 2770 ± 390 g CH4 hr−1, with a skewed distribution and average emission rate of 710 ± 100 g CH4 hr−1. Oil production records from Texas were incomplete: some wells had oil production data from the year of sampling, but many had no production data for several years or decades, although they were actively pumping while we were on site. Interviews with local residents indicate that the closing of the county gas processing plant and subsequent loss of gathering lines may be the cause of gas venting and CH4 and H2S emissions from production sites. This deserves further scrutiny, as marginal wells in this region are a major source of H2S, a health hazard to people living and working nearby.

Designing Retirement Strategies for Coal-Fired Power Plants To Mitigate Air Pollution and Health Impacts.

Retiring coal power plants can reduce air pollution and health damages. However, the spatial distribution of those impacts remains unclear due to complex power system operations and pollution chemistry and transport. Focusing on coal retirements in Pennsylvania (PA), we analyze six counterfactual scenarios for 2019 that differ in retirement targets (e.g., reducing 50% of coal-based installed capacity vs generation) and priorities (e.g., closing plants with higher cost, closer to Environmental Justice Areas, or with higher CO2 emissions). Using a power system model of the PJM Interconnection, we find that coal retirements in PA shift power generation across PA and Rest of PJM, leading to scenario-varying changes in the plant-level release of air pollutants. Considering pollution transport and the size of the exposed population, these emissions changes, in turn, give rise to a reduction of 6-136 PM2.5-attributable deaths in PJM across the six scenarios, with most reductions occurring in PA. Among our designed scenarios, those that reduce more coal power generation yield greater aggregate health benefits due to air quality improvements in PA and adjacent downwind regions. In addition, comparing across the six scenarios evaluated in this study, vulnerable populations─in both PA and Rest of PJM─benefit most in scenarios that prioritize plant closures near Environmental Justice Areas in PA. These results demonstrate the importance of considering cross-regional linkages and sociodemographics in designing equitable retirement strategies.

The Effect of Coke Plant Shutdown on Air Pollution: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Source-Apportioned PM2.5

The Effect of Coke Plant Shutdown on Air Pollution: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Source-Apportioned PM2.5

Research and Development Needs to Enable Renewable-Powered Liquid Alkaline Electrolyzers

Low temperature electrolysis (LTE) is the most promising method for fully renewable hydrogen production. However, to compete with current hydrogen production methods (which produce CO2), substantial cost reductions and efficiency improvements are necessary. Of the various LTE technologies, liquid alkaline (LA) electrolysis is the most mature. It has proven large scalability and can operate with all earth-abundant materials. However, most conventional LA electrolyzers are limited to lower current density operation than newer LTE technologies.Most LA electrolyzers operate with uncatalyzed Ni anodes, despite the existence of many highly active catalysts for oxygen evolution in alkaline conditions. This is because catalyzed systems require constant operation, as the catalyst layers degrade and delaminate rapidly upon exposure to the reverse polarization conditions experienced during system shutdown. This limitation prevents the integration of catalyzed electrodes, as even a single unexpected plant shutdown causes significant efficiency and cost losses. Further, this prevents fully catalyzed LA electrolyzers from directly operating with renewable power sources with large power fluctuations. Therefore, the development of reverse-current tolerant catalyst layers is essential to enable high-efficiency renewable energy powered LA electrolyzers.This talk will detail the mechanisms of electrode degradation during electrolyzer system shutdown. Our findings reveal anode catalyst layers fail through a combined electrochemical and mechanical degradation mechanism. I will discuss key differences in the cathode versus anode operating environments that explain the difference in reverse current tolerance. Considering these results, I will highlight priority research and development directions for developing anode and cathode catalysts for renewable-powered LA electrolyzers.

Water transport and corrosion under insulation: Experimental investigations of drying in mineral wool

Corrosion under insulation (CUI) is a major risk factor for the material integrity of insulated equipment that is encountered i.a. in the chemical process industries. Undetected CUI has been the root cause for major accidents, including loss-of-site, loss-of-life, prolonged plant shutdown, and environmental pollution. Reducing CUI risk via labour-intensive inspection routines is associated with billions of dollars of annual maintenance costs worldwide. CUI is caused by water bypassing a weather shield, migrating through the insulation and contacting the equipment surface. The resulting corrosion rates are very high and the process is hidden from view. Surprisingly, the fundamental mechanisms that drive water migration through insulation have been largely unexplored. In this work we present novel experimental investigations of the evaporation and drying dynamics for a heated vertical pipe with preformed mineral wool insulation and metal cladding. Relative humidity and temperature sensors provide measurements of how the water evaporates and travels through the system during controlled water ingress experiments. The experimental data shows that the drying time of the insulation material is proportional to the amount of water added. We find that the drying process proceeds in two stages, where the length of the first drying regime is directly related to the diffusion-limited evaporation from the bulk liquid water, while the second drying time is influenced also by other factors such as the adsorption and desorption of water on the insulation material fibres. The findings have implications for how time of wetness, used in CUI risk-based inspection methods, can be obtained from humidity sensor data. The new insights into water transport in insulation enables a paradigm shift towards predictive CUI maintenance using humidity spot sensors.

Economic and Ecological Benefits of SHM Techniques in Chemical Process Industry

High-performance machine components are involved in a wide range of industrial production processes. They play an important role in the provision of chemical products, pharmaceuticals, and energy resources. They require monitoring because they can fail during production due to corrosion and/or wear, which often means an increased risk to people and the environment. Periodic inspections with on-site test personnel often require a shutdown of the chemical plant. Ideally, an ultrasonic structural health monitoring (SHM) system could be used to provide continuous data on the structural integrity of these components while reducing or eliminating plant downtime. A plant shutdown is not only a high economic or supply risk but can also be energy intensive. In our presentation, we would like to give an overview of the technical requirements for an SHM system to be used in the chemical industry. Finally, the presentation will highlight the economic benefits of SHM as well as its contribution to energy savings and reduction of CO2 emissions per ton of chemical product produced.

Changed life worlds and survival strategies in disintegration after the regime change in Hungary: a former industrial town in the shadow of the factory giant

ABSTRACT In the literature of post-1989 Eastern European history, the disintegration of traditional industries and the decline of the factory towns that had been based on them is a well-known topic. Less attention has been paid to the transformation of the countryside or the villages that often served as the supportive network for the factory towns, a phenomenon that was also very typical of Hungary, where migrant or commuter workers became the subject of academic interest long before the collapse of state socialism. This study offers an international perspective and case study of the catchment area of Ózd, a former industrial and factory city located in northeastern Hungary that was once an important centre of Hungarian metallurgy and mining. In my analysis I address the related topic of how the decline of traditional industries affected this former industrial city and its surrounding villages, whose inhabitants mostly worked in industry until the industrial landscape and its society disappeared. This study focuses on Ózd and its surroundings, where the survival and sustenance of the population was directly threatened by the closure of collective farms, factories, plants and mines in the area.

Sales of delivery vehicles in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

The sale of vehicles is an important element of their life cycle, which includes various stages, from design and production, through use, to recycling or disposal. Sales are an important step in this cycle because they influence how many vehicles reach the market and are put into consumer use. During the COVID-19 pandemic, vehicle sales have dropped significantly. Drastic declines in production during this period were the effect of restrictions that resulted in the closure of production plants. The article presents statistics on the sales of Mercedes-Benz delivery vehicles and the changes that took place during the pandemic. It also contains recommendations that mainly concern improving the effectiveness of vehicle sales in emergency situations. During the pandemic, the activities of many automotive industries were suspended and, additionally, vehicle traffic decreased, which resulted in a general decline in the production of components, parts, as well as future car designs. The aim of the article is to analyse the sales of Mercedes-Benz delivery vehicles and to assess the factors that influenced it in the analysed period.

A ‘just transition’ for workers in the automotive sector? Survey evidence from the West Midlands

ABSTRACT Employment in the automotive sector is typically spatially concentrated and hence the impact of the transition to low-carbon technologies will have profound subnational effects. Although there is a rich literature around the spatial impact of automotive plant closures, the novelty of this paper lies in its focus on the impact on workers throughout the supply chain in the automotive sector. As such, this paper reports on lessons for supplier firms and workers in the West Midlands, in facilitating a ‘Just Transition’ in the automotive sector. The primary data collection consisted of a workforce survey in the UK of members of the Unite union (automotive section). Policy implications are explored with suggestions for further research on skills needs and the development of training provisions, to be conducted on a collaborative basis.

Plant Closings and Public School Finance in Mahoning ounty

Plant Closings and Public School Finance in Mahoning ounty

Energy Storage Improves Power Plant Flexibility and Economic Performance

Most existing coal-fired power plants were designed for sustained operation at full load to maximize efficiency, reliability, and revenue, as well as to operate air pollution control devices at design conditions. Depending on plant type and design, these plants can adjust output within a fixed range in response to plant operating or market conditions. The need for flexibility driven by increased penetration of variable and non-dispatchable power generation, such as wind and solar, is shifting the traditional mission profile of thermoelectric power plants in three ways: more frequent shutdowns when market or grid conditions warrant, more aggressive load ramp rates (rate of output change), and a lower minimum sustainable load, which provides a wider operating range and helps avoid costly plant shutdowns. Recent studies have shown that the flexibility of a coal-fired power plant can be improved by energy storage. The objective of this work was to analyze a set of energy storage options and determine their impact on the flexibility and economics of a representative coal-fired power plant. The effect of three energy storage systems integrated with a coal power plant on plant flexibility and economics was investigated. The results obtained in this project show that energy storage systems integrated with a thermal power plant improve plant flexibility and participation in the energy and ancillary services markets, which improves plant financial performance. The study was funded by the U.S. Department Office of Fossil Energy FE-1 under award number DE-FE0031903.

New insight into the phase changes of gypsum

The phase changes of gypsum were considered to be sufficiently understood for a long time. However, due to the increasing importance of gypsum recalcination (connected with the planned closure of thermal power plants resulting in a lack of FGD gypsum) and new detailed research associated with it, gaps in the current knowledge have been discovered. This paper clarifies phenomena occurring during the production of gypsum binder, anhydrite, and potentially eco-friendly calcium sulfate-based ceramics at 22–1300 °C by in-situ XRD, thermal analysis, and SEM. It was found that undesirable insoluble anhydrite II arises even in the temperature range from 40 to 90 °C despite the current state-of-the-art. New knowledge about the existence of the individual phases, microstructure (cracking of crystals; fragmentation and sintering of anhydrite AII at temperatures above 700 °C when a ceramic-like material is formed), and their external consequences (changes in moisture and heat transport properties) has been gained.

Plant-level adjustments to imports and exports at the extensive margin

This paper presents an empirical analysis of plant level responses to the China trade shock based upon a DSGE framework with heterogeneous firms. The empirical analysis shows that soaring imports from China are associated with a higher probability of plant closure. By contrast, firms in export oriented industries are less likely to exit. We rationalize these findings by several counter-factual experiments based upon a DSGE framework. Imports always raise the exit rate but the export-effect is ambiguous. More exports fuel competition among domestic rivals associated with more exits. However, this competition effect disappears when the share of exporters is extremely high. The effects of imports and exports on firm entry are close to zero in both theory and empircs. We also introduce a novel productivity shock channel. Additional export sales better protect firms from other shocks. We show this by introducing negative productivity shocks into the model.