Resilience Planning Research Articles

A risk-averse stochastic optimization model for community resilience planning

Community resilience planning is challenging as it involves several large-scale systems with interdependency, populations with diverse socio-economic characteristics, and numerous stakeholders. This study introduces a new optimization model to decrease a community's burden in developing viable alternative sets of decisions while considering costs and risks associated with uncertain hazard events. The model captures the essential features of a community, and its scope extends beyond infrastructure and buildings to include social goals. Structural engineering and social science approaches are adapted and incorporated into the model formulation to facilitate the identification of engineering decisions meeting the social goals of minimizing population dislocation and time for recovery. A risk-averse approach frames the optimization problem as a two-stage mean-risk stochastic programming model, which enables effective planning for low-probability, high-consequence hazard events. A case study simulating flood hazards in Lumberton, North Carolina, is developed, and the model is run with the generated data set to showcase the model's capability in developing risk-informed mitigation and recovery plans to achieve resilience goals. The insights drawn from the numerical experiments show the effect of changing risk preference on community resilience metrics.

Deep learning rapid flood risk predictions for climate resilience planning

Floods have been causing the world’s costliest weather-related catastrophes and their magnitude and frequency are projected to increase even further due to climate change. Current flood risk quantification procedures include the use of complex and highly uncertain hydrologic-hydraulic models for hazard mapping and computationally-tedious manipulations for vulnerability evaluation—hindering urban centers climate resilience planning. Adopting a novel approach that bypasses such time-consuming procedures, this study presents a deep learning-based rapid and accurate flood risk prediction tool, RAPFLO, to directly relate flood risk characteristics (level, extent, and likelihood) to their main drivers (e.g., climate, topography, and land cover). The approach employed to develop RAPFLO is generic in nature and the associated methodology is not site-dependent. To demonstrate its utility, RAPFLO is deployed on the City of Calgary, Canada, and is used to reproduce the fluvial flood risk across the city between the years 2010 and 2020. RAPFLO efficiently replicated the risk level with an overall accuracy of 80 % and the risk likelihood with a coefficient of determination of 0.96. Subsequently, RAPFLO was employed for predicting future fluvial flood risk from the year 2025 to 2100 under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. RAPFLO presents a valuable computationally efficient, accurate, and rapid decision support system that empowers city managers and infrastructure operators to devise effective climate resilience strategies considering different climate projections and future what-if scenarios.

How well are US communities planning for resilience, climate adaptation, and sustainability—and what’s missing? Results of a national survey of local staff and officials

Community resilience, climate adaptation, and sustainability planning are increasingly used by communities in the United States to prepare for the effects of natural hazards and climate change. Existing studies have examined the theoretical intersections of these planning initiatives, but knowledge remains limited about practitioner perceptions and needs. We surveyed local community staff conducting resilience, climate adaptation, and sustainability planning to understand their experiences and views about prioritization and effectiveness, barriers to success, and external information and support for these approaches. Respondents generally reported success in their planning efforts across all three areas, and with respect to navigating the growing array of available information and support options. The latter suggests that technical limitations are no longer a serious impediment. However, securing funding and implementing plans remain important barriers to effective resilience, adaptation, and sustainability planning. Yet, observed conceptual and practical overlaps between these related concepts may signal a way forward.

Testing an algorithm to identify disabilities using current health and social healthcare database: the experience of the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan

to describe prevalence of disability in the population of the Agency for Health Protection of Milan (ATS Milan), integrating current administrative healthcare, socio-healthcare, and social data; to classify disability with a diagnosis into a predominant structural and functional category according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), supplementing it with additional levels of detail. retrospective observational study. subjects residing in the territory of ATS Milan in the years from 2018 to 2022. Main outcomes measures: prevalence of disability in the population of ATS Milan from 2018 to 2022; average annual costs since disability diagnosis of the entire population and stratified by the most common ICF classifications. the prevalence of disability ranges from 5.8% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2022. In general, women have a higher prevalence than men. However, there are significant differences in the gender distribution depending on the considered age group. The main disabilities (32.2%) affect the structures of the nervous system and mental functions, followed by disabilities identified solely by major prosthetic devices (9.4%) and sensory disabilities with alterations in sensory functions with the presence of a major device (5.2%). Analysis of average total annual per capita costs shows an upward trend with increasing years since the diagnosis. the definition of standardized tools, such as the selection from several available healthcare data provided by service suppliers, can be helpful in obtaining reliable data on the prevalence of disability in the population. This evidence can be useful in planning public health interventions to address the needs of this population. The work developed by ATS Milan has been carried out in alignment with the activities outlined in Mission 5 of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), in particular for the reform of disability legislation, which foresees the definition of standardized tools for the in-depth study of the epidemiological aspects of the phenomenon.

Food banks show resilience in face of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented spikes in food insecurity. In California, food banks, which were already facing high demand for emergency food assistance, rallied federal, state and local resources to help meet the challenges of the pandemic. Our study draws on interviews with food banks and their partners approximately one year into the pandemic to learn how they responded to enormous challenges in staffing, procurement, distribution and infrastructure. These interviews captured lessons for resilience planning and food security policy that might otherwise have been lost. We found an encouraging story of resilience, and a story of how government agencies and community networks can work together to create and strengthen food security policies, even under the most dire circumstances.

Civil Service Reform – Expectations Related to the Implementation of The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP)

Civil Service Reform – Expectations Related to the Implementation of The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP)

Europeanization and domestic governance of the RRF

This article analyzes the governance mechanism chosen by Italy and Spain to implement their National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The focus is on two factors that are crucial when it comes to downloading and implementing EU policies, which are the political and administrative systems. Thus, it is assumed that any divergence in the structure of governance can be attributed to political structures and the territorial political and administrative structures. To conduct the analysis, both rational choice and historical institutionalism are used as complementary perspectives, to explain which factors led to specifics type of governance.

Good Governance in the Vision of the National Plan for Recovery and Resilience

Good Governance in the Vision of the National Plan for Recovery and Resilience

Dynamics of Link Importance through Normal Conditions, Flood Response, and Recovery

As climate change influences flood frequency, transportation damage and disruptions will become more common. Given the network’s expanse and cost of construction, communities’ mitigation efforts should be informed by analyses that span normal conditions and disaster management phases. This paper analyzes road segment criticality in normal, flood response, and recovery phases in Anderson County, South Carolina, considering impacts on emergency services, healthcare, industry, education, recreation, and transit. A 100-year event provides context for analyzing flood impacts to the time-based shortest paths, determined using ArcGIS Pro 3.1.3. Local and secondary roads were especially affected, with rerouting concentrating around the Anderson City area. Blocked road sections identified potentially vulnerable roads, and normalized betweenness centrality metrics identified community dependence on road segments for daily and emergency operations. While the quantity and dispersion of parks and grocery stores mitigated rerouting distance, other purposes faced challenges from impassable routes. The analysis revealed the southeastern and southern regions as most impacted across purposes, suggesting targeted mitigation. I-85, State Routes 28 and 81, and Federal Routes 29, 76, and 178 were the most critical roads before, during, and after the flood. This study highlights commonalities in road criticality across phases to support resilient transportation planning and sustainability.

Approaching the challenge of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic impact assessment through the lens of systemic risk: application to Taranaki Mounga

Effective volcanic impact and risk assessment underpins effective volcanic disaster risk management. Yet contemporary volcanic risk assessments face a number of challenges, including delineating hazard and impact sequences, and identifying and quantifying systemic risks. A more holistic approach to impact assessment is required, which incorporates the complex, multi-hazard nature of volcanic eruptions and the dynamic nature of vulnerability before, during and after a volcanic event. Addressing this need requires a multidisciplinary, integrated approach, involving scientists and stakeholders to co-develop decision-support tools that are scientifically credible and operationally relevant to provide a foundation for robust, evidence-based risk reduction decisions. This study presents a dynamic, longitudinal impact assessment framework for multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic events and applies the framework to interdependent critical infrastructure networks in the Taranaki region of Aotearoa New Zealand, where Taranaki Mounga volcano has a high likelihood of producing a multi-phase explosive eruption within the next 50 years. In the framework, multi-phase scenarios temporally alternate multi-hazard footprints with risk reduction opportunities. Thus, direct and cascading impacts and any risk management actions carry through to the next phase of activity. The framework forms a testbed for more targeted mitigation and response planning and allows the investigation of optimal intervention timing for mitigation strategies during an evolving eruption. Using ‘risk management’ scenarios, we find the timing of mitigation intervention to be crucial in reducing disaster losses associated with volcanic activity. This is particularly apparent in indirect, systemic losses that cascade from direct damage to infrastructure assets. This novel, dynamic impact assessment approach addresses the increasing end-user need for impact-based decision-support tools that inform robust response and resilience planning.

The Forest Sector in EU Member States' National Recovery and Resilience Plans: a preliminary analysis

The role of forests in reaching the environmental policies targets of the European Union (EU) is being increasingly recognised. Consequently, investing in the forest sector takes on a fundamental role. Different funding opportunities are already in place in the EU, but there are some limitations in accessing them. New funding opportunities arose more recently. To support the recovery process of Member States (MS) after the Covid-19 pandemic, the EU is making significant efforts through NextGenerationEU, funding MS after the European Commission (EC) approval of the National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs). No specific guidelines are present to finance the forest sector. The aim of this paper is to investigate how the forest sector has been taken into account in the NRRPs through an analysis of the contents of 26 NRRPs. Financial investments in the sector by action types have also been analysed. Finally, commonalities and differences between MS have been extracted by means of a cluster analysis.Results show that the majority of MS dedicate a portion of their funds to the forest sector and there were no investments in the sector in only four countries. One-third of MS have foreseen a dedicated portion of the funds to the sector. The forest-related themes most represented in the NRRPs are: biodiversity protection, climate adaptation, forest-based ecosystem services management, climate mitigation, rural development and innovation. The cluster analysis identifies three MS clusters, giving evidence about the MS behaviour in a non-ordinary funding situation. The first one is characterised by more traditional countries, while in the other two clusters innovation plays an important role. The second cluster orients innovation towards wood-related products, while innovation in the third cluster is addressed to support forest multifunctionality.Results can support national and European decision-makers to plan national strategies, funds allocation, or to act at European level knowing which are the priorities given by the different MS.

Nonprofit Industry Outlook 2024: Adapting to Ongoing Challenges

As we step into 2024, nonprofits are confronted with a landscape of challenges that demand resilience and strategic planning. Declining charitable donations, cuts in government funding, staffing issues, and the persistent specter of crises underscore the need for proactive risk management.

Flood risk perception and disaster preparedness in marginalised flood-prone communities: evidence from Saadi neighbourhood, Shiraz, Iran

ABSTRACT Poor and marginalised communities worldwide bear a disproportionate burden of the impacts caused by flash floods, resulting in significant socioeconomic and financial damages. To enhance community resilience to floods, it is crucial to comprehend flood risk perception (FRP) and preparedness levels for future disasters. This study aims to investigate these two essential factors in the Saadi community, which is one of the most flood-prone and marginalised communities in Shiraz, Iran. A field survey was conducted using a questionnaire (n = 400), supplemented by in-depth interviews with six informants and observational methods, to gain a comprehensive understanding of FRP among residents of the Saadi neighbourhood and assess their preparedness for future flooding events. The survey questionnaire consisted of three main domains: FRP and climate change perception, infrastructural capacity building in post-flood scenarios, and the extent of disaster preparedness. These questions were derived from a review of relevant literature and tailored to the unique conditions of the area, resulting in 18 variables. The results indicate that a high level of FRP (87.5%) was reported among affected residents who experienced previous floods and suffered consequences. Moreover, survey participants believed that more than three-fifths of the infrastructure remained unchanged. This study underscores the presence of high levels of FRP and medium-to-low levels of preparedness for flash floods in one of the most vulnerable communities in Shiraz city. The research findings can provide valuable insights for urban planners, city officials, and policymakers in developing more effective and realistic community resilience plans for communities prone to flash flooding.

The recovery and resilience plan on the long-term care system. Towards a deinstitutionalization?

After the crisis caused by Covid-19, among other socioeconomic problems, the fragility of the organizations that make up the Spanish Long-Term Care System was revealed. These events prompted the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). The aim of this study is to estimate the socioeconomic impact on Long-Term Care (LTC) of the investment delivered by the RRP. In addition, to fulfil our main aim, a secondary and necessary aim was to calculate the most current social accounting matrix (SAM) of the Spanish economy. We analyse the components of the demand linked to the RRP investment allocated to LTC, and subsequently, based on Input-Output methodology, we calculate a social accounting matrix (SAM) of the Spanish economy to estimate the overall economic return. The results obtained using the SAM model proposed herein evidence the multiplier effect of the RRP invested in LTC. Every euro allocated to the RRP generates 4 euros in income for Households, Firms and the External Sector, 3.4 euros in industrial output, and returns 0.6 euros in taxes and social contributions to the Government. This also entails creating 26,410 direct and indirect jobs as well as 10,059 induced ones. Given the severe recession scenario triggered by the consequences of COVID-19, the results of this study highlight the significant multiplier effect that RRP investment may generate to alleviate the downturn in the Spanish economy and, more specifically, in the Spanish LTC System.

Planning for heat-resilient educational precincts: Framework formulation, cooling infrastructure selection and walkable routes determination

To create a heat-resilient education precinct, this study developed a framework for campus heat solutions to enhance the heat mitigation and adaptation capacity of campus stakeholders. The campus heat solution framework consists of preparation, mitigation and adaptation, thermal environment and comfort assessment, information-sharing platform, heat action plan, and post-assessment. An empirical study in Chongqing University, China based on field experiments, numerical simulations, and post-processing of outdoor thermal environments and comfort was conducted, to demonstrate the applicability of the framework in actual educational precincts. The results indicated the spatiotemporal variability of surface temperature and outdoor thermal comfort, exhibited the right time and proper cooling infrastructure selection, and identified the adaptive walkable paths. For instance, the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) with sun exposure had a mean value of 46.8 °C and a maximum value of 51.4 °C at 14:00, while the mean UTCI of the tree, sunshade and pavilion were 8.1 °C, 9.3 °C and 10.6 °C lower than that of the full exposure means, respectively. Therefore, before 10:00 or after 18:00, choosing locations under trees, sunshades, or pavilions can ensure better thermal comfort at high temperatures. In comparison, from 10:00 to 13:00, it is essential to choose sunshades or pavilions, and from 13:00 to 18:00, it is preferable to choose only pavilions. Moreover, a suitable walkable path was determined based on cumulative heat stress. Overall, this study is expected to provide a reference for building healthy and comfortable educational precincts and enhance the understanding of heat resilience planning.

Prediction of photovoltaic waste generation in Canada using regression-based model.

The global surge in photovoltaic (PV) installations and the resulting increase in PV waste are a growing concern. The aims of this study include predicting the volume of photovoltaic waste in Canada. The forecasting of solar waste volume employed linear regression, 2nd order polynomial regression, and power regression models. The study's results indicate that Canada is on the verge of facing challenges related to the end-of-life treatment of photovoltaic modules in the coming years due to the significant growth in PV capacity over recent decades. According to the analysis, for early loss, the PV waste volume in 2045 could range from 180,000 MT to 270,000 MT, and for regular loss, it could range from 160,000 MT to 180,000 MT. This research is anticipated to assist relevant government agencies in assessing the prospective volume of PV waste to establish a sustainable and resilient PV waste management plan for Canada. These findings may shed light on the feasibility of a circular economy and advocate for the involvement of all stakeholders in a carefully coordinated strategy to mitigate potential environmental impacts and optimize resource utilization efficiency.

A resilient inter-organizational workflow assignment plan selection approach: Application to a digital health use case

Workflow Management Systems are rapidly evolving and increasingly used in a variety of industries, allowing organizations to automate and enhance their business processes. Hence, they are open to collaboration throw inter-organizational workflows to achieve common objectives. Thus, organizations could thereby adapt to highly dynamic environments and abrupt sudden changes like during epidemics. One of the particular interests for security researchers is to ensure workflow resiliency, which means ensuring the completion of the workflow execution given a defined set of security constraints without violating the security policy. However, the rigid application of security constraints restricts some task-organization assignments, which leads to the workflow satisfiability problem. Moreover, a wise selection of collaborating organizations is very important for secure resilient inter-organizational workflow execution. Therefore, we aim in this paper to propose a resilient inter-organizational workflow assignment plan selection approach to select a valid task-organization plan that allows a resilient inter-organizational workflow complete execution. Our proposed approach, uses the task priority concept, Bayesian inference, and a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making approach based on the methods Analytical Hierarchical Process and Grey Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. As a result, the proposed approach selects the best assignment plan for a resilient execution of the Inter-Organizational Workflow, in addition to delegates for each task-organization assignment if available.

The implementation of NRRP policies between politics and policy. An interest group perspective

ABSTRACT In Italy, the effective implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) represents an even greater and more difficult challenge than its formulation. Implementation of the majority of the ambitious projects outlined in the plan and the required policy reforms necessitates the active participation of economic and social stakeholders, interest groups and major corporations, and a swift improvement in administrative capacities – especially at the sub-national government level. Analysing the implementation of the NRRP from the perspective of interest groups provides crucial insights into its potential impact on the Italian economy, society and political system. This viewpoint also illuminates the intricate connections between politics and policy in managing cross-sectoral reforms with substantial financial resources. Therefore, utilizing process tracing methodology allows for an in-depth analysis of the implementation of sectoral policies, unveiling causal mechanisms, identifying key actors, and recognizing evolving trends in policies central to the Plan itself, such as those related to competition, justice and the green and digital transitions. The outcomes are not self-evident, and the transformative dynamics within different policy sectors warrant systematic attention from both scholars and policymakers.

Upstream and downstream implementation arrangements in two‐level games. A focus on administrative simplification in the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan

AbstractThe onset of the European NGEU program represented for European member states a formidable opportunity for post‐pandemic recovery and yet a significant challenge at the same time: to receive and retain EU funds, each state had to promptly draw up a National Recovery and Resilience Plan—NRRP) and commit to a pressing timetable for its implementation. Regarding this challenge, the Italian government's response is a case in point: first, Italy is by far the largest beneficiary of NGEU funds; second, it has long had a reputation for being laggard in both the implementation of European directives and the spending of cohesion policy structural funds; and the formulation of the NRRP, the design of the governance in charge of its implementation, and implementation itself, occurred at a particular moment in the country's political life. Based on these premises, the article examines the upstream process by which the Italian government designed the implementation arrangements for the adoption of simplification policies under the NRRP and their downstream recalibration in the first two years, taking the implementation arrangements as the dependent variable. Analytically, the focus is on the interplay between the pressures of EU timetables and internal political dynamics, be they the legacy or strategic political considerations on the part of national policymakers, in determining the design and eventual re‐design of implementation arrangements as the plan unfolds.

INFN and the evolution of distributed scientific computing in Italy

INFN and the evolution of distributed scientific computing in Italy