Climate Change Planning Research Articles

Impacts of Future Climate Change and Xiamen’s Territorial Spatial Planning on Carbon Storage and Sequestration

The intensification of climate change and the implementation of territorial spatial planning policies have jointly increased the complexity of future carbon storage changes. However, the impact of territorial spatial planning on carbon storage under future climate change remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to reveal the potential impacts of future climate change and territorial spatial planning on carbon storage and sequestration, providing decision support for addressing climate change and optimizing territorial spatial planning. We employed the FLUS model, the InVEST model, and the variance partitioning analysis (VPA) method to simulate carbon storage under 15 different scenarios that combine climate change scenarios and territorial spatial planning for Xiamen in 2035, and to quantify the individual and combined impacts of territorial spatial planning and climate change on ecosystem carbon sequestration. The results showed that (1) by 2035, Xiamen’s carbon storage capacity is expected to range from 32.66 × 106 Mg to 33.00 × 106 Mg under various scenarios, reflecting a decrease from 2020 levels; (2) the implementation of territorial spatial planning is conducive to preserving Xiamen’s carbon storage, with the urban development boundary proving to be the most effective; (3) carbon storage is greatly affected by climate change, with RCP 4.5 more effective than RCP 8.5 in maintaining higher levels of carbon storage; and (4) the influence of territorial spatial planning on carbon sequestration consistently exceeds that of climate change, particularly under high-emission scenarios, where the regulatory effect of planning is especially significant.

Climate change adaptation measures in territorial planning documents

Issues in adaptation of cities to the consequences of climatic changes are relevant for the Rostov region as stated in the approved regional adaptation plan for climate change. The article analyzes the effects of climate change that will have a significant impact on the comfort and safety of urban areas in the region. The possibilities of adapting urban areas to the consequences of climate change in the Rostov region are assessed. One of the important steps in adapting cities to climate change is to amend territorial planning documents. To this end, regional urban planning standards will be developed to offset the negative consequences of climatic changes for the urban environments. A list of measures that could be taken to compensate for the negative consequences of climate change at the level of the settlement system for inclusion in the territorial planning scheme of the Rostov region. A list of climatic change compensation indicators is proposed for inclusion in the regional urban planning standards of the Rostov region.

Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Based on Multi‐Scale Graph Modeling With Conservation Laws

AbstractArctic sea ice prediction is critical for exploring climate change, resource extraction, and shipping route planning. This paper introduces a novel neural network model, Ice Graph Attention neTwork (IceGAT), that is trained to predict sea ice concentration (SIC) from a number of atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface measurements. It is based on two design principles: (a) the complex spatial interactions in weather dynamics are captured via a series of graphs corresponding to different spatial resolutions and (b) the incorporation of the physical conservation laws for moisture and potential vorticity. We devise two main variants with 1 hr and 24 hr temporal resolution and determine the optimal input horizon to be 5 days. IceGAT features leading accuracy (96.7%; +2.4% over the current state‐of‐the‐art) and low inference time (1/4 s, on a single GPU). An online implementation (based on data from ERA5) alongside supplementary videos and our shared code are accessible at: https://lannwei.github.io/IceGAT/.

Climate Change and Military Planning in the United States

The article examines changes in U.S. military planning approaches in the context of climate threats, focusing on the impact of climate change on national and international security. The author analyzes the evolution of the perception of climate phenomena as a risk, starting with the policies of the Barack Obama administration and including the current measures of the Joe Biden administration. The paper notes that climate change is seen not only as a direct threat to military installations, but also as a factor that can exacerbate social and political tensions, cause migration crises and regional conflicts. One of the key points is the integration of climate risks into the strategic planning of the U.S. Department of Defense, which is reflected in a number of directives and strategies, such as the Climate Adaptation Plan and the Climate Risk Analysis. Particular attention is given to the development of the DCAT geospatial tool that assesses the vulnerability of military installations to climate change. The article also examines legislative initiatives in the U.S. Congress to support DOD's efforts to mitigate climate change and increase the resilience of military infrastructure. Examples of specific measures aimed at reducing green-house gas emissions, developing clean energy, and improving energy efficiency are provided. Special attention is paid to the U.S. Arctic Strategy, which recognizes climate change as a key driver affecting the strategic environment in the region. Strategic documents repeatedly emphasize the importance of interagency cooperation and strategic planning in a changing climate to minimize risks to U.S. military readiness and national interests.

Framing flooding in African Cities: A corpus-assisted discourse analysis of the phenomenon in the Ghanaian Press

Abstract Increasing climate change and urban planning deficiencies have exacerbated flood disasters in African cities, attracting widespread media discussion and public concern. This study examines the discursive construction of perennial flooding in Accra, in the Ghanaian press, to bring to light how the phenomenon is represented with regards to whether or not it contributes to a proper appreciation of the situation in attempting to address the problem. It uses as dataset an 86,602-word specialised corpus built from news reports on flooding and a 422,436-word reference corpus (written component of International Corpus of English, Ghana). The study employs a Corpus-Assisted Discourse Studies (CADS) approach to explore the discourse using Keyword analysis, Concordance lines and Collocate analysis. Findings revealed framing of perennial flooding in the city as an unwelcome threat, as it is found to colligate with: “problems, damage, death and loss”, giving it a negative discourse prosody. In addition, there is unclear (de)construction of the major cause of the floods in the news, as experts assert that siltation of the drains is the major challenge, but what is often projected by the media as the cause is choked gutters. The findings inform policymakers that robust proactive measures, public education and sensitisation, and a firm commitment on the part of the government in particular are needed to tackle the perennial floods in Accra.

Climate Change and Heatwaves in India: Review of Impacts on Public Health, Livelihoods, and Policy

This paper presents a literature review studying the impacts of climate change and heatwaves on public health and livelihoods, with a focus on India. As global climate change accelerates, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, necessitating new approaches to mitigate their effects on vulnerable populations, especially in urban areas. The review draws on recent studies (2021-2024) that explore the intersections of climate change, heatwaves, public health, livelihoods, policy interventions, and Heat Action Plans. The main findings reveal that heatwaves in India have significant public health impacts, such as increased mortality and morbidity, and disproportionately affect livelihoods, especially in agriculture and informal labor sectors. Vulnerable populations, including urban dwellers and informal workers, face heightened risks, further exacerbated by inadequate infrastructure and policy gaps. The purpose of this review is to synthesize current research to highlight these vulnerabilities and identify gaps in knowledge and policy response. A comprehensive, localized approach combining detailed risk assessments, nature-based solutions, technological innovations, and strengthened governance is essential for effective heatwave management in India. The findings underscore the urgent need for continued research focused on local spaces and comprehensive policy interventions to address the escalating risks posed by climate-induced heatwaves, setting the groundwork for future research and effective heatwave management strategies.

Wildlife Tourism and Climate Change: Perspectives on Maasai Mara National Reserve

The impact of climate change on nature-based tourism is gaining significance. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change and tourism stakeholders’ perspectives on the subject in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and World Heritage Site. Surveys and interviews were used to collect data. The main climate-related threats to tourism were heavy rain, floods, and extreme droughts. These events adversely impacted infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and accommodation facilities, and outdoor tourism activities, such as game viewing, cultural tours, birdwatching, and hot air ballooning. They also exacerbated human–wildlife conflicts. The key challenges identified in dealing with impacts were poor planning, non-prioritizing climate change as a threat, a lack of expertise, inadequate research, and a lack of internal early warning systems. The key recommendations included prioritization of climate change planning, development of internal early warning systems, and building resilience toward climate-related disasters. This study contributes to practice by making recommendations for management and other stakeholders. It also extends the discussions of climate change and tourism to wildlife tourism destinations in Africa.

Capturing the health and well-being impact of climate change: a health impact assessment in Wales

Abstract Climate change is one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century and is likely to impact on health through a range of factors (societal, economic or environmental). The need to take action on climate and nature emergencies in order to protect population health and well-being and prevent negative impacts are becoming more urgent. Public Health Wales carried out a comprehensive mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of climate change in Wales. HIA is a systematic process which considers the impact of a policy on the health and well-being of a population. It appraised the potential impacts of climate change on health and inequalities in Wales. This involved participatory workshops, engagement with stakeholders, statistical data, systematic literature reviews and case studies. The HIA findings indicate significant potential impacts across the determinants of health and mental well-being. For example, air quality, flooding, economic productivity, working conditions, access to services and community resilience. Impacts were identified across population groups, settings, and areas including urban and rural contexts, outdoor workers, children and young people, older people, schools, hospitals and workplaces. These findings have been beneficial to inform decision-makers to prepare for climate change plans and policies using a preventative evidence-informed approach. The work has demonstrated the value of HIA for significant, complex policies by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in government and organizational action and transferrable learning for others. Key messages • HIA is a beneficial tool to identify at a granular level the health impacts of climate change. • The HIA has been used by the government of Wales and organisations to respond to and plan for climate change.

Future-proofing the global system of marine protected areas: Integrating climate change into planning and management

Climate change and its impacts are increasingly threatening the ability of marine protected areas (MPA) to meet their conservation goals. While integration of climate change into planning is critical, a recent global analysis found that relatively few MPAs have incorporated climate change considerations into formal management planning processes. Despite this, sessions and discussions at the Fifth International Marine Protected Areas Congress (IMPAC5) demonstrate that climate-adaptive management already permeates MPA processes, from day-to-day management to design and implementation. Here we review the results of an IMPAC5 knowledge exchange session that brought together a diverse group of MPA managers, Indigenous community representatives, and thought leaders to discuss improved integration of climate change into MPA management and planning. The session demonstrated the vibrancy, diversity, and engagement represented in the dynamic and fast-moving field of MPA climate change management and planning. In addition to sharing unique and diverse perspectives, the session leveraged the experience of experts to identify new and common challenges and gaps. As a result of this session, we present five recommendations, building on previous work, to guide MPA managers in the explicit and successful incorporation of climate adaptation into management planning and implementation. These recommendations hold the goal of ensuring an equitable, adaptive, and robust global MPA system. This review also provides a valuable summary of the vast repository of experience and knowledge of climate adaptive management contained within the MPA management community, and with community and Indigenous partners. Such perspectives are rarely reflected in formal scientific, policy, and management publications.

Soil-Based Emissions and Context-Specific Climate Change Planning to Support the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) on Climate Action: A Case Study of Georgia (USA)

Soil-based emissions from land conversions are often overlooked in climate planning. The objectives of this study were to use quantitative data on soil-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the state of Georgia (GA) (USA) to examine context-specific (temporal, biophysical, economic, and social) climate planning and legal options to deal with these emissions. Currently, 30% of the land in GA has experienced anthropogenic land degradation (LD) primarily due to agriculture (64%). All seven soil orders were subject to various degrees of anthropogenic LD. Increases in overall LD between 2001 and 2021 indicate a lack of land degradation neutrality (LDN) in GA. Besides agricultural LD, there was also LD caused by increased development through urbanization, with 15,197.1 km2 developed, causing midpoint losses of 1.2 × 1011 kg of total soil carbon (TSC) with a corresponding midpoint social cost from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (SC-CO2) of USD $20.4B (where B = billion = 109, $ = U.S. dollars (USD)). Most developments occurred in the Metro Atlanta and Coastal Economic Development Regions, which indicates reverse climate change adaptation (RCCA). Soil consumption from developments is an important issue because it limits future soil or forest carbon (C) sequestration potential in these areas. Soil-based emissions should be included in GA’s carbon footprint. Understanding the geospatial and temporal context of land conversion decisions, as well as the social and economic costs, could be used to create incentives for land management that limit soil-based GHG emissions in a local context with implications for relevant United Nations (UN) initiatives.

A review of climate change and cardiovascular diseases in the Indian policy context.

There is growing evidence that climate change adversely affects human health. Multiple diseases are sensitive to climate change, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which are also the leading cause of death globally. Countries such as India face a compounded challenge, with a growing burden of CVDs and a high vulnerability to climate change, requiring a co-ordinated, multi-sectoral response. In this framework synthesis, we analysed whether and how CVDs are addressed with respect to climate change in the Indian policy space. We identified 10 relevant national-level policies, which were analysed using the framework method. Our analytical framework consisted of four themes: (1) political commitment; (2) health information systems; (3) capacity building; and (4) cross-sectoral actions. Additionally, we analysed a subset of these policies and 29 state-level climate change and health action plans using content analysis to identify health priorities. Our analyses revealed a political commitment in addressing the health impacts of climate change; however, CVDs were poorly contextualized with most of the efforts focusing on vector-borne and other communicable diseases, despite their recognized burden. Heat-related illnesses and cardiopulmonary diseases were also focused on but failed to encompass the most climate-sensitive aspects. CVDs are insufficiently addressed in the existing surveillance systems, despite being mentioned in several policies and interventions, including emergency preparedness in hospitals and cross-sectoral actions. CVDs are mentioned as a separate section in only a small number of state-level plans, several of which need an impetus to complete and include CVD-specific sections. We also found several climate-health policies for specific diseases, albeit not for CVDs. This study identified important gaps in India's disease-specific climate change response and might aid policymakers in strengthening future versions of these policies and boost research and context-specific interventions on climate change and CVDs.

A statistical model of solar radiation absorption in the United States

The transitivity of solar radiation in the atmosphere varies greatly depending on location, time of day, earth-to-sun distance, angle of incidence, and other variables. Solar radiation has an impact on climate change and can be used as energy. So, its modelling will help plan and design policies for climate change and the sustainable use of energy. This study aimed to investigate solar energy patterns and trends on the Earth’s surface via solar radiation absorption by cloud cover. Data on solar radiation absorption from 133 stations between the years 1998 and 2020 across the United States were downloaded from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) website. A linear regression model was used to model solar absorption by cloud and factor analysis was used to group the regions by reducing the spatial correlation of solar radiation absorption. After that, a multivariate regression model was utilized to investigate average changes. There were seven regions obtained from factor analysis. All regions showed a seasonal pattern, with the peak in December to January and the lowest level in June to July. The north, north-east, or south-east of the country experienced an increase in solar radiation absorption, while the north-west, central, and south of the country experienced a decrease. The overall average absorption increased by 0.015%. The patterns and trends of solar radiation by location and time help climate scientists make better decisions. It is also useful to manage renewable energy sources, which will lead policymakers to make better policies.

Assessing Vulnerability and Prioritization of Cultural Assets for Climate Change Planning in Collier County, Southwest Florida

Cultural resources are often overlooked in climate change and resiliency planning, despite them being integral to community identity and the restoration of a sense of normalcy after significant weather events. This vulnerability assessment demonstrates how cultural resources can be included in planning efforts, and how they can be prioritized based on specific criteria. To complete this assessment, a working group with local land managers and cultural resource professionals was formed, and members employed a sophisticated Geo Tool, ACUNE (Adaptation of Coastal Urban and Natural Ecosystems) for climate adaptation, to predict how cultural resources throughout Collier County, Florida, would be impacted in two specific climate scenarios. The working group selected ten significant sites in the county and used ACUNE to prioritize action at these sites, using a matrix of hazard exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and the environmental, social, and economic consequences of the loss of these sites. Based on the results of our case study vulnerability assessment of cultural resources in Collier County, the next decade (2020 to 2030) has the potential to increase the number of sites at risk of storm flooding from 267 to 318, alerting managers that immediate action is needed for the sites of greatest value. The analysis of 10 case study sites is presented to demonstrate an approach for land managers and other cultural resource professionals to prioritize action at their own sites.

Communicating climate futures: a multi-country study of how the media portray the IPCC scenarios in the 2021/2 Working Group reports

The way governments and policy makers think about climate futures has a wide-ranging impact on how they formulate policy and plan for climate change impacts. In the lead-up to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the IPCC adopted a new scenarios framework that aimed to provide a fuller picture of the interacting elements and policy choices that affect climate change. However, these scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), are complex and difficult to communicate. Most audiences, including policy makers, receive much of their information about climate change from mainstream media, and particularly online news sites. We therefore examined the five most popular online news sites in the UK and the USA, five popular English-language news sites in India, English-language news media from a wide range of African countries, and the Reuters News agency. Based on manual content analysis to assess 252 articles, we identify several important findings, amongst them: in all countries, the media provide little detailed explanation of how scenarios are developed, very little mention of SSPs, and virtually no detailed explanations of them; generally, journalists use the words ‘projections’, ‘futures’, and ‘pathways’ when talking about the IPCC scenarios, although some usage of ‘predictions’ or ‘forecasts’ is apparent; contrary to previous research, there were very few doomsday narratives such as ‘only 12 years to act’. We conclude by drawing out some implications for more effective communication of the IPCC scenarios.

Tourism-related economic loss and damage from the North Island weather events on New Zealand conservation land and waters

Extreme weather events are causing increasing levels of loss and damage, including to natural assets and associated nature-based tourism economies. This article provides estimates of the economic impacts on public conservation lands and waters in New Zealand's North Island from the flooding events of Cyclone Hale and Cyclone Gabrielle in early 2023. Losses and damage are estimated in four buckets: regional tourism GDP losses from cancelled visitor bookings at Department of Conservation accommodation facilities; lost business revenue of companies operating in protected areas; lost value of government-managed visitor assets; and regional tourism GDP losses from estimated reductions in visitor numbers at three iconic protected area sites. The research also attributes a proportion of these losses to climate change, assisting learning and future planning for New Zealand's conservation agency.

Evaluation of hydrological responses to climate change in the Gibe Gojeb catchment, southwestern Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The expected influences of climate alteration on hydrological responses in the Gibe Gojeb catchment, southwestern Ethiopia, were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and regional climate models (RCMs). This study emphasizes the evaluation of the climate change impact on hydrological responses. The RCM data were downloaded from CORDEX-Africa. Power transformation and delta change methods were used for bias correction of precipitation and temperature, respectively. The calibration and validation of the SWAT model showed good agreement, and climate change impact was simulated. Accordingly, precipitation, soil water content, percolation, water yield, and groundwater are projected to decrease by 28.18, 7.5, 9.1, 5.4, and 9.2%, respectively, under RCP4.5 in the future (2021–2050). Besides, surface runoff and potential and actual evapotranspiration are projected to increase by 17.4, 11.32, and 5.06%, respectively. Soil water content, percolation, water yield, and precipitation are projected to decrease by 10.51, 5.63, 2.76, and 21.57%, respectively, under RCP8.5 in the future. Rain-fed crop production and hydropower generation in the catchment would be vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The results help to develop effective adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change and draft long-term water resource management plans in the Gibe Gojeb catchment.

Urban Green Space Research Progress and Hotspots Evolution Analysis: Visual Analysis based on WOS

Background and objective: Over the past few decades, urban green space research has emerged as a pivotal field within urban planning, ecology, and environmental science, achieving substantial advancements. This study endeavors to elucidate the trajectory of development and evolving hotspots in urban green space research through a visual analysis of the Web of Science (WOS) database.Methods: This study employs CiteSpace software to visualize the dataset, encompassing the analysis of keywords, abstracts, institutions, authors, references, and more, presenting the knowledge structure graphically. Additionally, it utilizes the LLR tag extraction algorithm to generate a keyword co-occurrence map and conduct clustering and grouping.Results: The findings reveal that the preeminent contributors in urban green space research include Haase, Dagmar, and Nizamani, Mir Muhammad. Furthermore, the collaborative network among researchers underscores the significance of interdisciplinary and cross-border cooperation in advancing urban green space research. Keyword co-occurrence analysis identifies prevalent themes such as land surface temperature and health, highlighting the current focal points of urban green space research.Conclusion: This study discerns heightened attention to topics encompassing the thermal environment, ecosystem services, biodiversity, green space accessibility, and vegetation. These themes mirror societal concerns regarding the influence of urban green spaces on climate change and spatial planning, thereby delineating avenues for future research.

Determining the Public Health Impact of Climate Change: A National Study Using a Health Impact Assessment Approach in Wales.

Objective: Climate change is recognised as the biggest threat to global health of the 21st century and impacts on health and wellbeing through a range of factors. Due to this, the need to take action in order to protect population health and wellbeing is becoming ever more urgent. Methods: In 2019, Public Health Wales carried out a comprehensive mixed-method Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of climate change. Unlike other risk assessments, it appraised the potential impact of climate change on health and inequalities in Wales through participatory workshops, stakeholder consultations, systematic literature reviews and case studies. Results: The HIA findings indicate potential impacts across the wider determinants of health and wellbeing. For example, air quality, excess heat/cold, flooding, economic productivity, infrastructure, and community resilience. A range of impacts were identified across population groups, settings, and geographical areas. Conclusion: These findings can inform decision-makers to prepare for climate change plans and policies using an evidence-informed approach. The work has demonstrated the value of a HIA approach by mobilising a range of evidence through a transparent process, resulting in transferrable learning for others.

Bangladesh's pathways to climate-resilient development: A methodical review

Climate resilient development pathways (CRDP) are procedures that reinforce sustainable development and reduce poverty and inequalities while meeting adaptation and mitigation targets. The study systematically assessed Bangladesh's efforts to combat climate change and evaluated its progress toward CRDP with a degree of confidence approach. It also assessed climate change vulnerability, national climate change plans and policies, climate finance conditions, and environmental sustainability. The study revealed that the recent climate change plans and strategies have transformative, social inclusiveness, gender responsiveness, climate resilience, institutional flexibility and coordination, and target setting and monitoring attributes from a moderate to large extent. However, to implement its recently developed climate plans like the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan, Delta Plan, NAP, and NDC, where funding is essential—the nation needs USD 533.7 billion. The study suggests that though the country has implemented several plans and strategies in recent decades, uneven progress has appeared in some important socio-economic and environmental indicators as well as SDGs which signifies low return against investment. It can be concluded that ensuring maximum socio-economic and environmental return on investment, long-term climate finance, strengthening local govt. organizations, adopting region specific and holistic approaches with private sector engagement would advance CRDP attainment as well as a nature positive economy and system transition in Bangladesh.

Ecological niche modelling to project past, current and future distributional shift of black ebony tree Diospyros melanoxylon Roxb. in India

The present study utilized an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of Diospyros melanoxylon under present, past (last glacial maximum (LGM), ~ 22 000 years BP, middle Holocene (MH) ~ 6000 years BP) and future climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5 for 2050s and 2070s). The annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitations were the most critical parameters that chiefly influence the distribution of D. melanoxylon. The ensemble model rendered high accuracy with AUC = 0.93, TSS = 0.74 and Kappa = 0.71. Past projections of D. melanoxylon indicated a widespread distribution during LGM and MH suggesting its adaptability to semi‐dry as well as warm and humid climate, respectively. Presence of fossil pollen evidence of D. melanoxylon in the suitable habitats derived through past projections in this study complements the model results and marks occurrences of the species during LGM and MH. By 2050s and 2070s (RCP 8.5), there would be a decline in the distribution by only 0.4% (13 622 km2) and 0.2% (6842 km2) of the extremely suitable habitats, respectively. The main factor leading to reduced habitat suitability is the anticipated rise in temperature and variations in seasonal precipitation patterns. Our findings, help in identifying the parts of the country which would be severely affected by future climate change scenarios and plan conservation strategies for this commercially important species to facilitate its growth in suitable habitats which are likely to sustain under future climatic conditions.