Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling offers a viable approach to predict induction drug-drug interactions (DDIs) with the potential to streamline or reduce clinical trial burden if predictions can be made with sufficient confidence. In the current work, the ability to predict the effect of rifampin, a well-characterized strong CYP3A4 inducer, on 20 CYP3A probes with publicly available PBPK models (often developed using a workflow with optimization following a strong inhibitor DDI study to gain confidence in fraction metabolized by CYP3A4, fm,CYP3A4, and fraction available after intestinal metabolism, Fg), was assessed. Substrates with a range of fm,CYP3A4 (0.086-1.0), Fg (0.11-1.0) and hepatic availability (0.09-0.96) were included. Predictions were most often accurate for compounds that are not P-gp substrates or that are P-gp substrates but that have high permeability. Case studies for three challenging DDI predictions (i.e., for eliglustat, tofacitinib, and ribociclib) are presented. Along with parameter sensitivity analysis to understand key parameters impacting DDI simulations, alternative model structures should be considered, for example, a mechanistic absorption model instead of a first-order absorption model might be more appropriate for a P-gp substrate with low permeability. Any mechanisms pertinent to the CYP3A substrate that rifampin might impact (e.g., induction of other enzymes or P-gp) should be considered for inclusion in the model. PBPK modeling was shown to be an effective tool to predict induction DDIs with rifampin for CYP3A substrates with limited mechanistic complications, increasing confidence in the rifampin model. While this analysis focused on rifampin, the learnings may apply to other inducers.
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