Physics-based Ground Motion Simulations Research Articles

Simplified site response analysis for regional seismic risk assessments

Seismic risk assessment on a regional scale requires an estimation of ground motion intensity and its spatial variation over large geographical areas. This task is particularly challenging in the presence of very soft soil deposits where significant amplification occurs at specific frequencies that are often referred to as local resonances. It is often not feasible to conduct a nonlinear site response analysis at thousands of sites of interest across a region such as an urban area due to the computational effort involved and the required detailed information on soil profiles at each site. Thus, in regional seismic risk analyses the hazard is typically represented by a field of response spectral ordinates estimated by ground motion models. This study proposes a simplified site response analysis procedure to improve the characterization of spectral ordinates to be used in regional seismic risk assessments. In the proposed procedure, reduced-order models are used to conduct site response analysis using very few parameters to transform response spectra at rock outcrop into response spectra at the surface of each of the sites. A particular emphasis is given to soft-soil sites characterized by low shear-wave velocities overlaid on rock or firm soils. A non-uniform continuous shear beam model with a parabolic variation of shear modulus along the depth and modal damping is used in combination with Random Vibration Theory. It is shown that the proposed approach provides better estimates than those of ground motion models or physics-based ground motion simulation models which often cannot capture the local resonances. Site-specific validation of the shear beam model and overall simplified site response analysis is performed at four soft-soil sites in San Francisco, California. Despite its simplicity, it is shown that the proposed procedure adequately captures the amplitudes and spectral shapes of the motions. It is also shown that in conjunction with ground motion models or physics-based models, the proposed simplified site response analysis procedure can be used to efficiently simulate the seismic hazard on a regional scale through an example of a regional seismic hazard analysis of 160 softer soil sites in Downtown San Francisco during the Loma Prieta earthquake.

Evaluation of directionality in physics-based ground motion simulations of strike-slip earthquakes

Recent advances in engineering seismology and computing power have led to the development of realistic physics-based ground motion simulations. The use of these simulations for engineering applications requires that the ground motions exhibit characteristics consistent with those of recorded ground motions. While several studies have evaluated the intensity, frequency content, duration, and other characteristics of ground motion simulations for their possible use in engineering applications, few have focused on directionality. This article evaluates directionality in the response of single-degree-of-freedom oscillators when subjected to CyberShake Study 15.12 simulated ground motions from strike-slip earthquakes, by carefully comparing it to the directionality in recorded ground motions having the same style of faulting. Physics-based ground motion simulations at 334 stations from 5 different rupture variations in two large-magnitude earthquake scenarios on the Elsinore fault are evaluated. The orientation of maximum oscillator response and its spatial distribution are studied for each rupture. The orientation of maximum oscillator response is found to occur systematically close to the epicentral transverse orientation at all rupture distances, consistent with recent findings for ground motions recorded during strike-slip earthquakes. In addition, the orientation-specific spectral accelerations, when computed as a function of angular distance from the epicentral transverse orientation, are found to exhibit a variation consistent with the overall trend observed in records from the next-generation attenuation (NGA)-West2 database. However, the level of polarization at short periods in the simulated hybrid broadband waveforms used in this study is larger than that in recorded ground motions.

A 3D computational model for ground motion simulation in Peninsular India

Due to the gradual and constant accumulation of seismic energy, Peninsular India (PI) is typically considered seismically stable with low to moderate seismicity. The seismic studies in Peninsular India always resorted to synthetic ground motion simulations, because of the limited instrumentation and hence lack of recorded data. In the absence of a well-defined medium model for PI, the usual practice is to use simple site proxies or one-dimensional velocity structures for ground motion simulations. However, the region consists of multi-scale geometric complexities, significant topography, and sedimentary basins and is surrounded by deep oceans. Thus, the radiated seismic wave field in the region is influenced by the medium properties and in the absence of a well-defined tomography model the reliable estimation of seismic hazard is a challenging problem in PI. Therefore, the seismic wave propagation in PI can be investigated using numerical simulation with reliable 3D computational model for PI, incorporating the knowledge of the underlying Earth structure. Hence, the present study attempts to develop a sophisticated three-dimensional (3D) medium model of Peninsular India for physics-based ground motion simulations for regional earthquakes. This is aided by the availability of one-dimensional (1D) velocity models and the crustal structure from the receiver function analysis which provides valuable insight into the variation of material properties in the region. In the present study, >100 s of 1D velocity profiles are collected from various literature, which is then grouped under 23 different geological regions identified in PI (as per GSI (2000)). The averaged material properties are assigned per each geological region and the information on sediment depths, basin geometry, topography, and bathymetry are incorporated. We use the spectral element method (SEM) to calibrate our 3D computational model by simulating synthetic seismograms and comparing them to recorded ground motions for two past earthquakes: the 2001 Mw 7.6 Bhuj earthquake and the 1997 Mw 5.8 Jabalpur earthquake. Further, the seismic waveforms at the near field of 2001 Mw 7.6 Bhuj event are simulated using a refined regional model. The spatial variability of associated seismic intensities and peak ground velocity (PGV) amplification are investigated. In addition, a study of the impact of model depth truncation and sphericity on ground motion is also conducted. The implemented medium model is the first of its kind for Peninsular India and can reliably be used in seismic wave propagation studies in the region. The simulated outcomes from the model are of engineering importance as these results can be used for seismic hazard assessment of the region.

Nationwide investigation of systematic site effects in New Zealand: Residual analysis of physicsbased ground motion simulations

Nationwide investigation of systematic site effects in New Zealand: Residual analysis of physicsbased ground motion simulations

City-scale buildings damage estimation based on broadband physics-based ground motion simulation of 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi, China, earthquake

This article proposed a computational workflow for city-scale building damage estimation based on broadband physics-based ground motion simulation. The dynamic stiffness matrix method in frequency-wavenumber domain is employed for broadband physics-based ground motion simulation of finite fault along with site response correction using equivalent-linear site response analysis approach. With simulated ground motion, seismic response of buildings, using multi-degree of freedom model, is simulated using nonlinear time history analysis, and building damage is evaluated based on a trilinear backbone curve of story’s nonlinear force-drift model. Main advantage of the framework lies in the employed dynamic stiffness matrix method for ground motion simulation, which can efficiently generate broadband ground motions in perfect parallel and naturally capture the physics of finite fault source, propagation path, and spatial variability characteristics of ground motion. To demonstrate the salient features of proposed workflow, the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake is simulated with frequency resolution up to 20 Hz, and seismic damage of buildings in Yangbi county are estimated. Results show that most traditional wood-adobe structures suffer moderate to severe damage, and engineered seismic buildings (mostly RC frame) in Yangbi county suffer minor damage, which agrees with field investigation results.

3D physics-based ground motion simulation and topography effects of the 05 September 2022 MW6.6 Luding earthquake, China

On September 5, 2022, a MW6.6 earthquake occurred in Luding, Sichuan Province, which caused a large number of casualties and serious damage to infrastructures. To represent the strong ground motion of the destructive shock, the SPECFEM 3D code is adopted to model the wave propagation and a hybrid kinematic source to model the fault rupture. As for the hybrid fault source, spatial heterogeneities aimed to simulate the high-frequency radiation are added to a prescribed asperity model used to generate the low-frequency part. With a conforming mesh of the established 100 km × 100 km × 60 km numerical model and the developed hybrid fault source, the maximum resolved frequency of the simulation is 5 Hz. First, the numerical model is validated by comparing the simulated results with the six recorded waveforms as well as the corresponding Spectral acceleration and Fourier amplitude spectra. Then, the wave fields and Synthetic seismograms are presented to investigate the velocity pulse-like ground motion in the near-fault region. Finally, the topographic effect on the ground motions is identified by comparing the results from the numerical model with (Topo) and without topography (Flat). It is demonstrated that the simulated ground motion well reproduces the near-fault fling-step effect and the wave scattering effect caused by the surface topography. The hill-canyon topography significantly amplifies the surface motion, with the amplification factors (Topo/Flat) of PGV at the peak of Gonggashan mountain and at the bottom of Daduhe river reach 1.9 and 1.4, respectively. Moreover, the PGV amplification factor is in good correlation with the topography's elevation, indicating that the topographic amplification can be predicted by establishing the relationship between amplification factor and elevation.

Physics-Based Ground Motion Simulations for the Prediction of the Seismic Vulnerability of Masonry Building Compounds in Mirandola (Italy)

The current paper aims at investigating the seismic capacity of a masonry building aggregate in the historical centre of Mirandola based on a reliable ground motion simulation procedure. The examined clustered building is composed of eleven structural units (SUs) mutually interconnected to each other, which are made of brick walls and are characterized by wooden floors poorly connected to the vertical structures. Non-linear static analyses are performed by adopting the 3Muri software to characterize the seismic capacity of both the entire aggregate and the individual SUs. In this framework, a multi-scenario physics-based approach is considered for the definition of the seismic input in terms of broadband seismic signals inclusive of source and site effects. Finally, the incidence of the seismic input variability is discussed for the prediction of the global capacity response of the case study building.

Response of inelastic SDOF systems subjected to dynamic rupture simulations involving directivity and fling step

Directivity is a phenomenon perceived during fault ruptures wherein the ground motion and spectral response in the direction of the rupture is more significant than in any other direction. The objective of this study is to evaluate the variability in characteristics of near-fault ground motions as well as the ductility demand on structures due to directivity based on simulations of strike-slip earthquake events by employing SPECFEM3D, a physics-based ground motion simulation code. To understand the finite fault propagation effect, a source effect, the vertical strike-slip fault is considered to be embedded in an elastic half-space, to prevent the influence of path and site effects. Two scenarios are designed based on the positioning of nucleation asperity (NA): (1) in the middle of the fault face to simulate bilateral (BL) rupture and (2) shifted to one end for the case of unilateral (UL) rupture. The ground motions at near-fault stations, located in a racetrack configuration around the surface trace of the fault, are analyzed. In addition to a high spectral content in the forward directivity stations as a result of UL rupture, directivity velocity pulses identified in the fault-normal components are higher than the fling step velocity pulses in the fault-parallel component for the racetrack stations considered. Furthermore, the study examines the correlation between ductility demands computed based on elastoplastic rheology with direct point parameter and ground motion intensity measures for directivity and fling step stations.

Effects of the Georgia Sedimentary Basin on the Response of Modern Tall RC Shear-Wall Buildings to M9 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes

Tall residential RC shear wall buildings (RCSW), which are predominant in Metro Vancouver, have the potential to experience large magnitude earthquakes generated by the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Furthermore, the region lies above the Georgia sedimentary basin, which can amplify the intensity of ground motions at medium to long periods and the resulting damage in tall structures. This study provides insights into the effects of the Georgia sedimentary basin amplification on (1) spectral accelerations associated with magnitude 9 (M9) CSZ earthquakes, (2) resulting force- and deformation-controlled actions in modern tall RCSW buildings, and (3) ensuing earthquake-induced repair costs and times. To this end, we leveraged a suite of physics-based ground motion simulations of a range of M9 CSZ earthquake scenarios, which explicitly consider basin effects, and benchmarked these scenarios against a range of seismic hazard intensities, which neglects basin effects. While the M9 simulations have an estimated 500-year return period, at deep basin sites their spectra exceed the 2,475-year hazard in the 1–3 s period range. Nonlinear dynamic analysis results under probabilistic seismic hazard estimates result in negligible collapse risk. In contrast, collapse risk conditioned on the occurrence of the M9 motions results in probabilities as high as 15%. Additionally, seismic demands from the M9 simulations at deep basin sites result in earthquake-induced repair costs and times that exceed those associated with the 2,475-year hazard level.

Spatial correlation of broadband earthquake ground motion in Norcia (Central Italy) from physics-based simulations

This paper investigates the spatial correlation of response spectral accelerations from a set of broadband physics-based ground motion simulations generated for the Norcia (Central Italy) area by means of the SPEED software. We produce several ground-motion scenarios by varying either the slip distribution or the hypocentral location as well as the magnitude to systematically explore the impact of such physical parameters on spatial correlations. We extend our analysis to other ground-motion components (vertical, fault-parallel, fault-normal) in addition to the more classic geometric mean to highlight possible ground-motion directionality and therefore identify specific spatial correlation features. Our analyses provide useful insights on the role of slip heterogeneities as well as the relative position between hypocentre and slip asperities on the spatial correlation. Indeed, we found a significant variability in terms of both range and sill among the considered case studies, suggesting that the spatial correlation is not only period-dependent, but also scenario-dependent. Finally, our results reveal that the isotropy assumption may represent an oversimplification especially in the near-field and thus it may be unsuitable for assessing the seismic risk of spatially-distributed infrastructures and portfolios of buildings.

Stochastic analysis of the rocking vulnerability of irregular anchored rigid bodies: application to soils of Mexico City

This paper focuses on the development and assessment of the expected damage for the rocking response of rigid anchored blocks, with irregular geometry and non-uniform mass distribution, considering the site conditions and the seismicity of Mexico City. The non-linear behavior of the restrainers is incorporated to evaluate the pure tension and tension-shear failure mechanisms. A probabilistic framework is performed covering a wide range of block sizes, slenderness ratios and eccentricities using physics-based ground motion simulation. In order to incorporate the uncertainties related to the propagation of far-field earthquakes with a significant contribution to the seismic hazard at study sites, it was simulated a set of scenarios using a stochastic summation methods of small-earthquakes records, considered as Empirical Green's Function (EGFs). As Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP), the absolute value of the maximum block rotation normalized by the body slenderness, as a function of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is adopted. The results show that anchorages are more efficient for blocks with slenderness ratio between two and three, while slenderness above four provide a better stability when they are not restrained. Besides, there is a range of peak intensities where anchored blocks located in soft soils are less vulnerable with respect to those located in firm soils. The procedure used in here allows to take decisions about risk, reliability and resilience assessment of different types of contents, and it is easily adaptable to other seismic environments.

EQSIM—A multidisciplinary framework for fault-to-structure earthquake simulations on exascale computers, part II: Regional simulations of building response

The existing observational database of the regional-scale distribution of strong ground motions and measured building response for major earthquakes continues to be quite sparse. As a result, details of the regional variability and spatial distribution of ground motions, and the corresponding distribution of risk to buildings and other infrastructure, are not comprehensively understood. Utilizing high-performance computing platforms, emerging high-resolution, physics-based ground motion simulations can now resolve frequencies of engineering interest and provide detailed synthetic ground motions at high spatial density. This provides an opportunity for new insight into the distribution of infrastructure seismic demands and risk. In the work presented herein, the EQSIM fault-to-structure computational framework described in a companion paper, McCallen et al., is employed to investigate the regional-scale response of buildings to large earthquakes. A representative M = 7.0 strike-slip event is used to explore the distribution and amplitude of building demand, and comparisons are made between building response computed with fault-to-structure simulations and building response computed with existing measured near-fault earthquake records. New information on the distribution and variability of building response from high-performance parallel simulations is described and analyzed, and favorable first comparisons between building response predicted with both fault-to-structure simulations and real ground motions records are presented.

Regional broad-band ground-shaking modelling over extended and thick sedimentary basins: an example from the Lower Rhine Embayment (Germany)

The simulation of broad-band (0.1 to 10 + Hz) ground-shaking over deep and spatially extended sedimentary basins at regional scales is challenging. We evaluate the ground-shaking of a potential M 6.5 earthquake in the southern Lower Rhine Embayment, one of the most important areas of earthquake recurrence north of the Alps, close to the city of Cologne in Germany. In a first step, information from geological investigations, seismic experiments and boreholes is combined for deriving a harmonized 3D velocity and attenuation model of the sedimentary layers. Three alternative approaches are then applied and compared to evaluate the impact of the sedimentary cover on ground-motion amplification. The first approach builds on existing response spectra ground-motion models whose amplification factors empirically take into account the influence of the sedimentary layers through a standard parameterization. In the second approach, site-specific 1D amplification functions are computed from the 3D basin model. Using a random vibration theory approach, we adjust the empirical response spectra predicted for soft rock conditions by local site amplification factors: amplifications and associated ground-motions are predicted both in the Fourier and in the response spectra domain. In the third approach, hybrid physics-based ground-motion simulations are used to predict time histories for soft rock conditions which are subsequently modified using the 1D site-specific amplification functions computed in method 2. For large distances and at short periods, the differences between the three approaches become less notable due to the significant attenuation of the sedimentary layers. At intermediate and long periods, generic empirical ground-motion models provide lower levels of amplification from sedimentary soils compared to methods taking into account site-specific 1D amplification functions. In the near-source region, hybrid physics-based ground-motions models illustrate the potentially large variability of ground-motion due to finite source effects.

Modeling nonlinear site effects in physics-based ground motion simulations of the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence

This study examines the performance of nonlinear total stress one-dimensional (1D) wave propagation site response analysis for modeling site effects in physics-based ground motion simulations of the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence. This approach explicitly models three-dimensional (3D) ground motion phenomena at the regional scale, and detailed site effects at the local scale. The approach is compared with a more commonly used empirical VS30-based method of computing site amplification for simulated ground motions, as well as prediction via an empirical ground motion model. Site-specific ground response analysis is performed at 20 strong motion stations in Christchurch for 11 earthquakes with 4.7≤ MW≤7.1. When compared with the VS30-based approach, the wave propagation analysis reduces both overall model bias and uncertainty in site-to-site residuals at the fundamental period, and significantly reduces systematic residuals for soft or “atypical” sites that exhibit strong site amplification. The comparable performance in ground motion prediction between the physics-based simulation method and empirical ground motion models suggests the former is a viable approach for generating site-specific ground motions for geotechnical and structural response history analyses.

Site-specific ground motion modeling for a historical Cairo site as a step towards computation of seismic input at cultural heritage sites

Throughout time, the area of historical Cairo has been affected by several earthquakes from near and distant seismogenic zones. The maximum earthquake intensity reported in Cairo is VII, on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale, due to the 1992 Cairo earthquake (Mw=5.9). About 212 Coptic and Islamic monuments were damaged. The spatial distribution of damage, suggests the occurrence of strong local site effects in combination with high vulnerability of the cultural heritage buildings. This study presents the application of a novel seismic hazard analysis approach at a local scale based on physics-based ground motion simulations. A site-specific multi-scenario seismic input (ground motion time histories and response spectra) is computed at a heritage building in Cairo, considering the local site effect. The seismic input is calculated in three steps: a regional scale analysis followed by a site-specific analysis and the combinations of the computed scenarios ground motion. In the regional scale analysis synthetic accelerograms are computed at the site bedrock. Then, the site-specific analysis is performed to calculate the site surface ground motions or response spectra considering the local site effect. Three earthquake scenarios have been considered, characterized by different locations, magnitudes, and fault configurations. The last step consists in the combination of the computed scenario ground motion into one single multi-scenario seismic input specific for the site of interest. This input is represented by spectral ordinates and their variability. For the engineering purpose of time history analysis, the method allows also to extract the computed site specific physics-based accelerograms, requiring no amplitude scaling nor filtering by magnitudes, distances, or site classifications, as usually done with real ground motion records.

Design strategies to achieve target collapse risks for reinforced concrete wall buildings in sedimentary basins

Studies of recorded ground motions and simulations have shown that deep sedimentary basins can greatly increase the damage expected during earthquakes. Unlike past earthquake design provisions, future ones are likely to consider basin effects, but the consequences of accounting for these effects are uncertain. This article quantifies the impacts of basin amplification on the collapse risk of 4- to 24-story reinforced concrete wall building archetypes in the uncoupled direction. These buildings were designed for the seismic hazard level in Seattle according to the ASCE 7-16 design provisions, which neglect basin effects. For ground motion map frameworks that do consider basin effects (2018 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model), the average collapse risk for these structures would be 2.1% in 50 years, which exceeds the target value of 1%. It is shown that this 1% target could be achieved by: (1) increasing the design forces by 25%, (2) decreasing the drift limits from 2.0% to 1.25%, or (3) increasing the median drift capacity of the gravity systems to exceed 9%. The implications for these design changes are quantified in terms of the cross-sectional area of the walls, longitudinal reinforcement, and usable floor space. It is also shown that the collapse risk increases to 2.8% when the results of physics-based ground motion simulations are used for the large-magnitude Cascadia subduction interface earthquake contribution to the hazard. In this case, it is necessary to combine large changes in the drift capacities, design forces, and/or drift limits to meet the collapse risk target.

Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand

Ground motion simulation validation is an important and necessary task toward establishing the efficacy of physics-based ground motion simulations for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake engineering applications. This article presents a comprehensive validation of the commonly used Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology with a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) Canterbury Velocity Model. This is done through simulation of 148 small magnitude earthquake events in the Canterbury, New Zealand, region in order to supplement prior validation efforts directed at several larger magnitude events. Recent empirical ground motion models are also considered to benchmark the simulation predictive capability, which is examined by partitioning the prediction residuals into the various components of ground motion variability. Biases identified in source, path, and site components suggest that improvements to the predictive capabilities of the simulation methodology can be made by using a longer high-frequency path duration model, reducing empirical V s30-based low-frequency site amplification, and utilizing site-specific velocity models in the high-frequency simulations.

Sensitivity analysis of near-source ground motions to pseudo-dynamic source models derived with 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters

Ground motion prediction is an important element in seismic hazard analysis. However, the availability of recorded strong ground motion data is limited, particularly for large events in near-source regions. Recently, several physics-based ground motion simulation approaches have been developed, which may be useful for understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of near-source ground motions to finite earthquake source processes with pseudo-dynamic source models, based on 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters. We simulated ground motions for Mw 6.6 and 7.0 vertical strike-slip events using pseudo-dynamic source models derived from multiple sets of input source statistics and investigated the characteristics of near-source ground motions relative to the input source statistics, focusing on the relative station locations with respect to finite-fault geometry. Our results show that the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motions can vary depending on the locations of near-source stations. The variability of ground motion intensities derived from multiple sets of input source statistics was greater in the forward directivity region. This pattern is also consistent for pseudo-spectral accelerations with various periods. The pseudo-dynamic source modeling method with 1-point and 2-point statistics seems to be an efficient framework for understanding the effect of earthquake source on near-source ground motion characteristics.

A Neural Network for Automated Quality Screening of Ground Motion Records from Small Magnitude Earthquakes

The ambitious scopes of recent earthquake ground motion studies are generating a need for more high-quality ground motion records. As the number of deployed sensors is rapidly growing through improved accessibility and cost (e.g., ground motion stations, low-cost accelerometers, smart phones), an exponentially increasing amount of data are being generated. Previously, quality-assured ground motion data sets for engineering applications were generated using both manual and automated quality screening methodologies. More recently, new techniques have emerged that potentially offer both improved classification accuracy and computational expediency. This work presents a machine learning–oriented method to facilitate and accelerate the quality classification of ground motion records from small magnitude earthquakes. Feedforward neural networks are selected for their ability to efficiently recognize patterns and are trained on two New Zealand data sets. An application to physics-based ground motion simulation validation indicates that the proposed approach delivers results that are comparable with manual quality selection. Robust automatic ground motion quality screening allows a significant increase in data set size for development, calibration, and validation of ground motion models.