Physical Risk Research Articles

Comprehensive Threat Analysis in Additive Manufacturing Supply Chain: A Hybrid Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment Framework

Additive Manufacturing (AM) offers revolutionary design capabilities but introduces cybersecurity vulnerabilities due to its digital integration. While existing research focuses on cyber threats, a significant gap exists in addressing physical and cyber risks. The current research focuses on cyber threats, but more attention needs to be paid to addressing physical and cyber risks. This paper proposes a new risk assessment framework that considers both physical and cyber threats quantitatively and qualitatively and helps safeguard the AM supply chain. The framework identifies, analyses, and prioritises potential threats based on their characteristics. It also considers the trustworthiness of data and the frequency of reported threats to estimate the likelihood of each threat. The risks are then prioritised based on a combined impact-likelihood score. The framework has been validated on the standard benchmark MITRE CVEs dataset and has proven effective in identifying critical vulnerabilities. This approach empowers manufacturers to proactively deal with security concerns and navigate the complexities of the rapidly evolving AM landscape.

Association between physical activity changes and risk of incident ischemic stroke following cancer diagnosis: A nationwide retrospective cohort study.

Physical inactivity is prevalent after cancer treatment, which could increase ischemic stroke risk in cancer survivors. This study investigated the association between physical activity change from pre- to post-diagnosis and ischemic stroke risk among cancer survivors. Using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, 269,943 cancer survivors (mean [SD] age, 56.3 [12.1] years; 45.7% male) with no history of cardiovascular disease were evaluated based on changes in physical activity from pre- to post-diagnosis. Using the Fine-Gray model, subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for ischemic stroke risk were calculated, considering death as a competing risk. After cancer diagnosis, 62.0% remained inactive, 10.1% remained active, 16.6% became active, and 11.4% became inactive. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 4.1 (2.0) years, being active both pre- and post-diagnosis was associated with a 15% decreased risk of ischemic stroke (sHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75-0.96), compared with those who remained inactive. Cancer survivors who became active and inactive post-diagnosis showed a 16% and 11% lower ischemic stroke risk (sHR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.93; sHR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.79-0.99), respectively, than those who remained inactive. Analysis by the primary cancer site did not substantially differ from the main findings. Physical activity is associated with reduced ischemic stroke risk among cancer survivors. The potential benefits of physical activity are not limited to individuals who were physically active before cancer diagnosis, thus preventive strategies against ischemic stroke should emphasize physical activity throughout the cancer journey.

The geoeconomics of protecting profits from migrants in maritime distress

AbstractCommercial vessels play a significant role in rescuing migrants on the Mediterranean. There are physical and financial risks to performing these commercial rescues that are poorly understood and often ignored. For ship captains, migrants in maritime distress embody the close linkages between geoeconomic and geopolitical risk. I argue that the negotiation of migrant rescues by commercial shipping captains captures the ways in which geoeconomic and geopolitical security‐seeking discourses become entangled and contradictorily embodied in everyday life and suffering. The rationale and logic that underwrite the securitisation of the supply chain is the discursive site where geopolitical and geoeconomic strategy define the risks in maritime rescue space. This study extends from a conceptual framework that identifies the spatial structuring of an ongoing dialectic between geopolitical and geoeconomic strategy as a defining feature of geoeconomic analyses. The research is based on interviews with 24 maritime professionals and a series of freedom of information requests to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) for information about rescues involving commercial ships. This paper contributes new information on the human geography of maritime rescues that involve commercial ships and migrants in the Central Mediterranean.

Association between reduced physical activity and 10-years risk of fracture in postmenopausal women with osteopenia/osteoporosis

Association between reduced physical activity and 10-years risk of fracture in postmenopausal women with osteopenia/osteoporosis

Does parental use of harsh discipline and punishment in response to ambiguous child situations vary by child physical abuse risk?

Background/objectivesThe present study investigated the extent to which fathers and mothers at high-risk and low-risk for child physical abuse (CPA) differed in their use of harsh discipline and punishment when presented ambiguous child situations (situations where differences in positive and negative valences are close to zero). Participants/methodsHigh-risk for CPA parents (N = 74: fathers, n = 41; mothers, n = 33) and low-risk parents (N = 178: fathers, n = 91; mothers, n = 87) were asked to indicate their likelihood of using harsh verbal discipline (HVD), harsh physical discipline (HPD), and punishment (i.e., retributive harm separate from HVD and HPD) after viewing each of eighteen ambiguous child situations. ResultsAs expected, high-risk, compared to low-risk, for CPA parents were significantly (ps < 0.001) more likely to use HVD (d = 0.546), HPD (d = 0.595), and punishment (d = 0.564). Overall, fathers, relative to mothers, were significantly more likely to use HVD (d = 0.261) and HPD (d = 0.238). For punishment, however, there was no significant parental role (father, mother) difference (d = 0.136). ConclusionsSince in everyday living situations many child behaviors are ambiguous, the findings that parents, especially high-risk for CPA parents, use harsh discipline and punishment when encountering ambiguous child situations suggest that non-contingent harsh child-related parental behaviors may be frequent in the lives of some children. The findings that parents may use non-contingent discipline and punishment suggest the need to explore whether, when these parenting behaviors occur, they increase the likelihood of negative child outcomes.

Measurement of daily climate physical risks and climate transition risks faced by China's energy sector stocks

This paper introduces a novel approach for assessing the daily climate transition risk level in China and quantifying the climate physical risk associated with various fossil energy stocks. These measurements offer valuable data sources for empirical research in this field. In assessing climate transition risk, this paper employs the Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) method to construct a glossary of China's climate transition terminology. It also utilizes the multi-scale moment difference method to evaluate China's daily climate transition risk from 2000 to 2022. Climate physical risk measurement primarily focuses on boundary projection and base period shifting. The analysis reveals that: (1) China's climate policy documents emphasize areas such as energy conservation, meteorology, renewables, low-carbon solutions, and carbon emissions. Notably, meteorology-related provisions, including those for typhoons, rainfall, and drought, indicate heightened government attention to climate disaster response. (2) The research identifies periods of increased climate transition risk levels in 2004–2008 and 2017–2019, with decreases in 2011–2015 and 2020–2022. (3) The distribution of climate physical risk levels in China's fossil energy stocks is right-skewed, with the range [0.86, 0.88] representing the predominant distribution interval and concentration of these risks. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and investors in making informed decisions for market management and investments based on climate risk scenarios.

Occupation-based demographic, clinical, and psychological presentation of spine pain: A retrospective analysis of 71,727 patients from urban India.

Although many studies have investigated the physical and ergonomic risks of spine pain in specific occupation groups, the literature is lacking on occupation-based clinical and psychological presentation in patients with spine pain. To analyze occupation-based variation in demographic, clinical, and psychological presentation in patients with spine pain. This retrospective study analyzed the clinical data of 71727 patients with spine pain visiting a chain of spine rehabilitation clinics. Demographic and clinical variables such as gender, age, affected site, symptom duration, clinical symptoms and presentation, pain intensity, disability, and STarT Back Screening Tool (SBT) risk were compared between 9 occupational groups. The service and sales workers (44%) and students (43.5%) groups had the highest percentage of patients who presented with central spine pain; military personnel had the highest percentage of patients who presented with unilateral radicular pain (51.5%); and the retired or unemployed group had the highest percentage of patients who presented with severe myotomal loss (grade≤3) (6%). Homemakers had significantly higher pain intensity and disability (p < 0.001) and had the highest percentage of patients who presented with severe pain (47%), severe and crippled disability (59.5%), and medium to high risk (59%) with SBT when compared to other occupational groups. Patients with spine pain showed variation in demographic, clinical, and psychological presentation based on their occupation. The findings of this study can be the basis for identifying risk factors for spine pain and helping plan preventive and treatment measures based on their occupation.

Climate change and its impact on home insurance uptake in Australia

Climate change is impacting the frequency and severity of physical risks such as wildfire, flood, cyclone and extreme precipitation. This is changing both the costs and benefits of home insurance purchase for households—leading to uncertainty about future insurance uptake rates under climate change. We use disaggregated data for Australia on the likelihood of climate hazards, and household panel data, to model the relationship between insurance uptake and exposure to climate physical risks. This model is then used to project insurance purchase out to 2100 under three climate scenarios. We find that exposure to climate risks does influence the likelihood of purchasing insurance. While for most hazards higher risk reduces the likelihood of purchase, there are exceptions, and the relationship is often complex. Projections from our model indicate that insurance coverage is likely to decline relatively modestly, by around one percentage point across Australia from 2000 to 2100 as a result of climate change. However, we find there is significant variation across regions.

Linking physical climate risk with mandatory business risk disclosure requirements

Mandatory disclosure of physical climate risks to businesses is planned or being implemented in many countries. This raises the question, how viable is it to link increasing physical climate risk, expressed as extreme events, to an individual business. We demonstrate how the characteristics of increasing frequency, magnitude and duration of extreme events impact a hypothetical business supply chain using the analogy of a spider’s web, where an extreme event impacting a strand of the web (supply/market line) impacts the efficiency of the web (supply chain). We demonstrate that our hypothetical business, located in the centre of the web, can be unaffected by a very large number of extreme events, or be severely impacted by a small number of events, depending on exactly where the event occurs and the properties of the event. This implies that a business cannot assess physical climate risk based on a change in the frequency of events; the business needs to know the precise location of the events, as well as the magnitude and duration of each event. This information is not available and is unlikely to ever be available from climate model projections. Therefore, individual businesses required to disclose future physical climate risk are very unlikely to be able to provide useful quantitative assessments. We recommend that a business-specific storyline approach to future risk is used where multiple lines of evidence are woven into a risk assessment, including climate projections. Generic top–down prescriptions of future scenarios are very likely to lead to misrepresentation of risk and very poor outcomes for business, investors or financial regulators seeking to build resilience to future climate change.

Contribution of youth sport participation to physical activity levels and cardiovascular disease risk factors in 5-year-old to 14-year-old children: a study protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

IntroductionCardiovascular disease (CVD) accounts for 18 million deaths per year, disproportionately burdens under-represented racial and ethnic groups, and has economic costs greater than any other health condition. Participation in youth...

Association Between Physical Activity and Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes Among Older Adults in Nigeria: A Cross-Sectional Study

Abstract Context: Type 2 diabetes is a growing public health problem worldwide, causing a high number of premature mortalities, especially among older adults. Aim: To understand the association between moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and the risk of developing type 2 diabetes among older adults. Materials and Methods: A multistage probability sampling technique was used to recruit 400 older adults (age =68.8 ± 6.5 years; male =68.8%) from their households in Maiduguri. Weekly minutes of MVPA were evaluated using the Hausa International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short form, and the risk of developing type 2 diabetes was measured using the validated Finnish Diabetes Risk Score Questionnaire. Adjusted linear regression analysis explores associations between MVPA and the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Results: It was found that 18.4% of the participants were obese, and 14.5% had a high and very high risk of developing type 2 diabetes. After adjusting for confounding variables (age, gender, BMI, and level of education), MVPA was associated with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes (β = −1.75, P = 0.01). There was significant interaction with gender, with protective effect found only in male older adults (β = −2.59, P = 0.01) and not among female Older adults (β =0.54, P = 0.61). Conclusions: Our data suggest that higher levels of MVPA are associated with a lower risk of developing future type 2 diabetes in a population of older adults in Nigeria, especially among men. A future longitudinal study, with a diverse large sample size and more objective measures, is needed to further determine the generalization of the findings observed.

Measuring crisis from climate risk spillovers in European electricity markets

This paper studies how climate risks spill over to European electricity markets across time and frequency domains using the connectedness network approach. By introducing three climate risk measures—the climate policy uncertainty index, climate physical risk index, and climate concern index—the empirical results reveal the vulnerability of European electricity markets to volatile climate policies and extreme climate crisis events. Overall, the spillover effects in the climate–electricity nexus are primarily concentrated in the medium- and long-term frequency domains, indicating that the impact of climate risk shocks is persistent. Compared with the impact of climate physical risks and climate concern shocks, the spillovers from climate policy uncertainty shocks to the electricity market are higher and more persistent. These findings highlight the need to consider the heterogeneous impacts of climate risks on electricity markets at different frequency bands.

Physical Fitness and Risk of Mental Disorders in Children and Adolescents

With the rising prevalence of mental disorders among children and adolescents, identifying modifiable associations is critical. To examine the association between physical fitness and mental disorder risks. This nationwide cohort study used data from the Taiwan National Student Fitness Tests and National Health Insurance Research Databases from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2019. Participants were divided into 2 cohorts targeting anxiety and depression (1 996 633 participants) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; 1 920 596 participants). Participants were aged 10 to 11 years at study entry and followed up for at least 3 years, had a nearly equal gender distribution, and an average follow-up of 6 years. Data were analyzed from October 2022 to February 2024. Assessments of physical fitness included cardiorespiratory fitness (CF), muscular endurance (ME), muscular power (MP), and flexibility, measured through an 800-m run time, bent-leg curl-ups, standing broad jump, and sit-and-reach test, respectively. Kaplan-Meier method calculated the cumulative incidence of anxiety, depression, and ADHD across fitness quartiles. Additionally, multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used that included all 4 fitness components and explored sex and income as modifiers. The anxiety and depression cohort had 1 996 633 participants (1 035 411 participants were male [51.9%], and the median [IQR] age was 10.6 [10.3-11.0] years), while the ADHD cohort had 1 920 596 (975 568 participants were male [51.9%], and the median [IQR] age was 10.6 [10.3-11.0] years). Cumulative incidence of mental disorders was lower among participants in better-performing fitness quartiles, suggesting a dose-dependent association. Gender-specific analyses, controlling for confounders, revealed that improved CF, indicated by a 30-second decrease in run times, was associated with reduced risks of anxiety, depression, and ADHD in female participants, and lower risks of anxiety and ADHD in male participants (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for ADHD risk for female participants, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.94; P < .001; for male participants, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.92-0.94; P < .001). Enhanced ME, marked by an increase of 5 curl-ups per minute, was associated with decreased risks of depression and ADHD in female participants, and lower anxiety and ADHD risks in male participants (aHR for ADHD risk for female participants, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97; P < .001; for male participants, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.95-0.97; P < .001). Improved MP, reflected by a 20-cm increase in jump distance, was associated with reduced risks of anxiety and ADHD in female participants and reduced anxiety, depression, and ADHD in male participants (aHR for ADHD risk for female participants, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-1.00; P = .04; for male participants, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.99; P = .001). This study highlights the potential protective role of cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular endurance, and muscular power in preventing the onset of mental disorders. It warrants further investigation of the effectiveness of physical fitness programs as a preventive measure for mental disorders among children and adolescents.

An Assessment of Physical Activity and Risk Factors in People Living with Dementia: Findings from a Cross-Sectional Study in a Long-Term Care Facility in Vietnam.

People living with dementia (PLWD) may experience substantial cognitive decline as the disease progresses, which interferes with their daily activities. This study aimed to assess physical activity (PA) performance and care dependency (CD) and identify factors related to PA among PLWD. We conducted a cross-sectional study in 63 PLWD from National Geriatrics Hospital, Vietnam, from 2021 to 2023. We used the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), and Care Dependency Scale (CDS) to assess the nutritional status and the levels of PA and CD, respectively. We used the Mann-Whitney test to compare the differences in the PA types and CD levels between dementia levels and a multivariable logistics regression model to analyze factors related to PA. More than half of the subjects had mild dementia. In total, 35% of the PLWD had a low level of PA, and 46.3% were completely independent of care. The mean score in each CDS aspect of the subjects with moderate/severe dementia was statistically significantly lower than that of those with mild dementia (p ≤ 0.05). Lower dependency (OR = 0.9; 95% CI = 0.88-0.99) and malnutrition (OR = 15.4; 95% CI = 1.18-20.21) were associated with insufficient PA in the PLWD. Formal caregivers and healthcare workers should encourage PLWD to perform physical activities at any level and personalize the development of tailored and nutritional care strategies for each individual.

Climate risks and the REITs market

AbstractThis study presents results supporting the need to price climate risks in real estate investment trusts. We approach this objective by conducting some empirical analyses for global, regional, and [US] sectoral REITs for want of wider coverage while we also consider variants of climate risks involving physical and transition risks. We first establish that climate concerns amplify the volatility of REIT returns. While our results are split for sectoral REITs, we find that both physical and transition risks magnify the volatility in the regional and global REITs market. However, when we consider the US sectoral REITs, we find contrasting evidence between the two variants of climate risks. While the transition risks seem to raise the REITs market volatility, perhaps owing to improved trading in the market as signalled by some level commitments towards addressing climate change, the physical risks associated with damages due to climate change tend to lower the REITs market volatility due to lower trading. Consequently, we formulate a framework that enables a profit‐maximizing investor to observe climate risks when making investment decisions in the REITs market, and we further show that doing so provides higher economic gains than ignoring it. This outcome has implications for investors looking for the best hedging strategy against climate‐related risks, especially as the world intensifies efforts towards de‐carbonization.

Integrated approach to sustainable utilization of phosphate waste rock in road embankments: Experimental insights, stability analysis, and preliminary economic evaluation

This paper highlights an issue that has not received much attention which is the use of phosphate waste rock (PWR) in road embankments. This study focuses on the valorization of marly clay and marly limestone lithologies, which are abundant but often unused or undervalued, being simply deposited around mine sites. Investigating the potential use of these materials in road embankments requires a combination of experimentation, stability analysis, and economic evaluation. The materials were collected from mining trenches in the Benguerir mine (Morocco). The samples were subjected to i) chemical and mineralogical characterization; ii) environmental characterization; and iii) geotechnical characterization. The results of the characterization show that the samples are chemically dominated by CaO (12–33 wt%), SiO2 (23–38 wt%), and MgO (7 – 9 wt%); mineralogically, the main phases are quartz, calcite, dolomite, apatite, and clay minerals. The environmental characterization classified the studied materials as non-hazardous waste. In terms of geotechnical characterization, the marly limestone and marly clay belong to the A3 and R33 categories, which means that they can be successfully used as a sustainable alternative material for the embankment. This finding supports their safe utilization. The stability analysis reveals that embankments up to 10 m in height can be constructed with marly clay without significant physical instability risks. Satisfactory safety factors (SF) were found (SF=1.97 for H=5 m and SF=1.54 for H=10 m). For marly limestone, the height limit is less than 10 m (SF=1.74 for H=5 m and SF=1.33 for H=10 m), but it can be increased to 10 m by adding a bench of rock fill with a safety factor of 1.64. Finally, an economic evaluation demonstrates that PWR can be used as embankment materials within a radius of 28 km around the mine site. It appears to be a cost-effective alternative compared to conventional materials.

Barriers to Older Adults Adapting Smart Homes: Perceived Risk Scale Development

The 21st century has marked the dawn of an aging population. China’s aging process ranks first worldwide. The country has recognized the gravity of this demographic shift and implemented strategies to address it at the national level. A vast majority of elderly Chinese individuals (approximately 90%) aspire to age in their own homes. Smart homes, endowed with cutting-edge digital technologies, such as AI, the Internet of Things, and big data, hold vast potential for enabling this vision. However, acceptance of smart home products and services among elderly individuals in China remains low. The main reason is that the related products and services fail to effectively alleviate the perceived risk of this population in the R&amp;D process of related products and services, and there is a lack of effective measurement methods. To holistically assess the potential obstacles faced by elderly individuals using smart home products and services, this study targeted individuals aged 45–60 years in China. This study aimed to develop a comprehensive perceived risk scale specific to smart homes for this demographic. Initially, this study identified key risk dimensions and corresponding measurement items through a rigorous literature review, user interviews, and expert consultations. Subsequently, it ensured the reliability and validity of each dimension and its corresponding observation variables through preliminary research, exploratory factor analysis, and confirmatory factor analysis. This approach allowed for a comprehensive understanding of the challenges faced by future elderly individuals when utilizing smart home products and services, thus enabling the development of more effective solutions. The scale encompassed ten factors and seventy measurement items, including Privacy and Security Risk (seven items), Physical Risk (seven items), Technological Risk (nine items), Performance Risk (seven items), Service Risk (nine items), Financial Risk (five items), Psychological Risk (seven items), Industry and Market Risk (six items), Social Support Risk (six items), and Policy and Legal risk (seven items). The measurement scale developed in this study represents a groundbreaking first attempt to create a systematic scale for assessing the perceived risks associated with smart homes for the elderly in China. It not only enables professionals, businesses, and manufacturers to avoid or reduce barriers in the R&amp;D process of related products and services, facilitating smart home industry growth and enhancing user adoption, but also serves as a universal reference for the potential obstacles that digital technology may encounter in addressing aging-related issues, which has significant theoretical value and practical importance.

Removal and prediction of chemicals in anaerobic–anoxic–aerobic wastewater treatment system: Case study on organophosphates

Distribution and removal of chemicals in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) have mainly relied on mathematical models. Existing exposure assessment models such as SimpleTreat, STPWIN are based on conventional activated sludge processes. There is an urgent need to develop an A2/O-based WWTPs exposure assessment model. Organophosphates (OPEs) have different physical and chemical properties and potential environmental risks. The fate and biodegradation kinetics of three types of OPEs, including alkyl OPEs, chlorinated OPEs and triphenyl ester OPEs, were studied in a laboratory-scale anaerobic/anoxic/aerobic (A2/O) sewage treatment system and batch reactors. The three types of OPEs had different anaerobic, anoxic, and aerobic removal characteristics. A compensation mechanism was found between anaerobic and anoxic/aerobic removal. When the hydraulic retention time decreased from 82 to 20.5 h, the removal efficiencies in the anaerobic unit decreased, while those in the anoxic unit increased; as a result, the total removal efficiencies remained high (>80 %) for all OPEs except triphenyl phosphate (65.5%–75.1 %). The concept of effective sludge concentration (MLSSeff) was proposed to illustrate the compensation mechanism and calibrate the second-order kinetic equation for predicting pollutant removal in the A2/O system: MLSSeff = ken × MLSS, where ken is a constant related to the influent total organic carbon content (TOC). The influent TOC contents of the anoxic and aerobic units affected the value of MLSSeff and OPEs removal. The results are of great significance for assessing OPEs exposure and predicting exposure to emerging micropollutants in sewage treatment systems.

Construction Safety Risk Assessment of High-Pile Wharf: A Case Study in China

The complexity of the wharf components and the harshness of the offshore construction environment increase the safety risk of hazards, which has highlighted the importance and urgency of safety risk management in high-pile wharf constructions. This paper established a visualized digital construction safety risk model for high-pile wharf based on a so-called FAHP method (the combination of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods). The construction safety risk indicators were constructed as the target layer, the principle layer and the scheme layer, and then the corresponding safety risk assessment algorithm was established. The physical, functional and safety risk assessment parameters of the component in the BIM model were employed to the safety risk assessment algorithm, and the risk assessment level of each sub-process was subsequently classified. The case study indicated that the high-pile wharf construction project included five elements in principle layer and 15 risk indicators in the scheme layer. Moreover, it was demonstrated that the sub-processes with the highest construction risk level were steel pipe pile sinking in wharf construction and steel pipe pile, steel sheath-immersed pile sinking and embedded rock pile construction in approaches to bridge construction with a risk level of III. In this way, the quantitative visualization of the construction safety risk was effectively realized, which facilitates the safety risk management of construction sites and timely warning and response to unexpected safety accidents.

Targeting the “poorest of the poor”: A multi-scale approach

Understanding that poverty presents multidimensional and multi-scale deployments, a methodology is proposed that allows to identify those poorest families among the poor in the State of São Paulo for cash transfer purposes. We propose a method to combine the vulnerability of the family with the other scales, resulting in a more refined classification of the situation of poverty, which is more difficult to be biased by the selfreported register. We added a georeferenced context-based component to differentiate among families with same vulnerability but living in different levels of intraurban and municipal conditions. At the municipal scale, we developed two sub-indexes through Principal Component Analysis (PCA): a) the Municipal Context Sub-Index, and b) the Municipal CadUnico Sub-Index. These sub-indexes were then integrated. On the scale of the Census enumeration area, we considered aspects that can aggravate the poverty condition, such as physical environmental risks and socioeconomic deprivation. On the family-scale, we consider the score defined by the São Paulo Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). The final multi-scale classification of families results from the sum of the scores obtained at the family level, the Census enumeration area and the municipality. The indexes were validated internally and externally. We simulated a scenario of hypothetical cash transfer programs using the current tool (MPI-S) and the proposed methodology to benefit up to 10,000 and 100,000 families in the State of São Paulo. We implemented the solution in Power BI tool to allow automatic updates of the indexes to be made in the developed “dashboard”. Results allow us to evaluate the impact of both approaches. The current approach, based only in the multidimensional poverty of the family is more distributed, with a wider geographic distribution, sometimes benefiting only one family in some municipalities or a great number of families in one municipality. The proposed approach tends to concentrate the assistance with greater percentages of families in the CadUnico by municipality. Besides aiding on cash transfer decision, the results obtained on the context and the intensity of municipal poverty can be used for programs aimed at leveraging economic development in the different administrative regions of the State of São Paulo.