Physical-biogeochemical Model Research Articles

Proteinaceous corals reveal heterogeneity in shifting Southern California oceanographic regimes.

The Southern California Bight is an ecologically important region for many local and migratory fauna. We combine bulk and compound-specific amino acid stable isotope measurements in the skeletons of proteinaceous octocorals with new regional ocean modeling system model output to explore biogeochemical changes at two locations within the Bight - Santa Cruz Basin and Santa Barbara Channel. Separated by the Channel Islands, these sites display distinct oceanographic regimes. Corals from the southeastern Santa Cruz Basin display lower bulk δ13C and higher bulk δ15N values than those in the northern Santa Barbara Channel. Amino acid isotope analyses indicate that the higher δ15N values in Santa Cruz Basin reflect both higher δ15N of baseline primary production and nitrate and higher trophic positions of the sinking particles that comprise the coral's diet. These findings suggest low nitrate concentrations, more complete nitrate utilization, lower productivity, and a longer planktonic food web. A 50-year time series of coral skeleton δ15N bulk values increases with time, consistent with sediment cores that capture an increase in the δ15NNO3 advected into the central Bight. In contrast, the Santa Barbara Channel corals display decadal-scale fluctuations, likely driven by interdecadal fluctuations in upwelling and nitrate supply. These findings agree with physical-biogeochemical model simulations showing greater sensitivity of upwelled surface nitrate concentrations to ocean climate variability in the Santa Barbara Channel. The importance of nutrient availability on ecosystem structure is emphasized using compound specific amino acid analysis, in a way that may be overlooked in bulk isotope palaeoceanographic records.

Calcite precipitation: The forgotten piece of lakes' carbon cycle.

Lakes emit substantial amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, but why they do remains debated. The long-standing vision of lakes as solely respirators of the organic matter leaking from the soils has been challenged by evidence that inorganic carbon produced by weathering of the catchment bedrock could also support lake CO2 emissions. How inorganic carbon inputs ultimately generate lake CO2 outgassing remains a blind spot. We develop and introduce a calcite module in a coupled one-dimensional physical-biogeochemical model that we use to simulate the carbon cycle of the large Lake Geneva over the past 40 years. We mechanistically demonstrate how the so-far neglected process of calcite precipitation boosts net CO2 emissions at the annual scale. Far from being anecdotal, we show that calcite precipitation could explain CO2 outgassing across various lakes globally, including some of the largest lakes in the world.

Bottom–up propagation of synoptic wind intensification and relaxation in the planktonic ecosystem of the South Senegalese Upwelling Sector

ABSTRACT Synoptic intensification or relaxation of upwelling favorable winds are major sources of variability in eastern boundary upwelling systems. This study aims to investigate their impact on the planktonic ecosystem of the South Senegalese Upwelling Sector (SSUS), located south of the Cape Verde peninsula over a wide and shallow continental shelf. Numerical experiments using a three-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model with four plankton functional types simulated the response of the coastal planktonic ecosystem to idealized synoptic (∼10 days) wind intensification and relaxation of the same amplitude. We find that these perturbations induce spatio-temporal oscillations of plankton concentrations. Zooplankton response occurred with a time lag that manifests itself in space as an equatorward/downstream shift in distribution relative to phytoplankton. Overall, the transmission of the synoptic perturbation from the physics to zooplankton is characterized by a damping in relative anomalies. All these elements and the weakness of the asymmetries in the biogeochemical/planktonic ecosystem responses between intensification and relaxation events support the hypothesis that synoptic variability has limited impact on the climatological state of low–latitude upwelling systems such as the SSUS. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY In some coastal regions of the world such as off Senegal, winds preferentially blow alongshore and induce subsurface, cold and nutrient rich waters to rise to the surface layer and favor the development of plankton blooms. These so-called upwelling favorable winds are not steady. Their fluctuations produce dynamical and biogeochemical variability over a broad range of scales. Here, we studied the biogeochemical effect of 10-day (i.e. weather or synoptic) wind fluctuations over the southern Senegal continental shelf. We used a numerical model with a simplified planktonic ecosystem consisting of two phytoplankton and two zooplankton size classes. The wind perturbations modulate ocean physics, the enrichment of the sun-lit surface layer in nutrients and the planktonic ecosystem. The plankton’s response to wind fluctuations exhibited oscillations more complex and relatively less intense than those of the wind. The modest effect of the studied short-term wind fluctuations on plankton found in this study may be specific to low-latitude coastal oceans with wide continental shelves.

Role of mesoscale eddies in the biogeochemistry of the Mozambique Channel

This study aims to characterize how eddies shape the biogeochemistry of the Mozambique Channel using a physical-biogeochemical model that realistically simulates its interannual dynamics. The 20-year-long numerical simulation provides a comprehensive dataset for robust statistical analysis of thousands of mesoscale features using an eddy detection method. We show that all eddy types significantly shape the biogeochemical landscape over the Mozambique Channel, with varying effects across different areas: (1) Sofala Bank and Delagoa Bay: Cyclonic eddies enhance diatom production. (2) Comoros Basin: Cyclonic eddies favor diatom growth via nutrient-rich waters from the NEMC. (3) Central Mozambique Channel: Anticyclonic eddies and rings promote nanophytoplankton through eddy-topography interactions. (4) Southern Mozambique Channel: A mix of eddies from the MC and South Madagascar influences diverse responses due to coastal upwelling. This diversity of processes results in distinct biological signatures of eddy types, leading to diverse ecosystem assemblages with a clear oligotrophic signature.

Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0

Abstract. Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Sea is studied through model simulations that incorporate the stable isotopes of CH4 (12C–CH4 and 13C–CH4) in a physical–biogeochemical model. A major uncertainty is that spatial and temporal variations in the sediment source are not well known. Furthermore, the coarse spatial resolution prevents the model from resolving shallow-water near-shore areas for which measurements indicate occurrences of considerably higher CH4 concentrations and emissions compared with the open Baltic Sea. A preliminary CH4 budget for the central Baltic Sea (the Baltic Proper) identifies benthic release as the dominant CH4 source, which is largely balanced by oxidation in the water column and to a smaller degree by outgassing. The contributions from river loads and lateral exchange with adjacent areas are of marginal importance. Simulated total CH4 emissions from the Baltic Proper correspond to an average ∼1.5 mmol CH4 m−2 yr−1, which can be compared to a fitted sediment source of ∼18 mmol CH4 m−2 yr−1. A large-scale approach is used in this study, but the parameterizations and parameters presented here could also be implemented in models of near-shore areas where CH4 concentrations and fluxes are typically substantially larger and more variable. Currently, it is not known how important local shallow-water CH4 hotspots are compared with the open water outgassing in the Baltic Sea.

Estimates of carbon sequestration potential in an expanding Arctic fjord (Hornsund, Svalbard) affected by dark plumes of glacial meltwater

Abstract. In polar regions, glaciers are retreating onto land, gradually widening ice-free coastal waters, which are known to act as new sinks of atmospheric carbon. However, the increasing delivery of inorganic suspended particulate matter (iSPM) with meltwater might significantly impact their capacity to contribute to carbon sequestration. Here, we present an analysis of satellite, meteorological, and SPM data as well as results of a coupled physical–biogeochemical model (1D GOTM-ECOSMO-E2E-Polar) with a newly implemented iSPM group to show the impact of iSPM on the ecosystem dynamics in a warming polar fjord (Hornsund, European Arctic) with numerous shallow-grounded marine-terminating glaciers. Our results indicate that with a longer melt season (9 d per decade, 1979–2022), the loss of sea ice cover (44 d per decade, 1982–2021) and the formation of new marine habitats after the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers (around 100 km2 in 1976–2022, a 38 % increase in the total area), glacial meltwater has transported increasing loads of iSPM from land (3.7 g m−3 per decade, reconstructed for 1979–2022). The simulated light limitation induced by the iSPM input delayed and decreased the peaks in phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macrobenthos. The newly ice-free areas still markedly contributed to plankton primary and secondary production and carbon burial in sediments (5.1, 2.0, and 0.9 Gg C yr−1, respectively, on average for 2005–2009 in the iSPM scenario). However, these values would have been 5.0, 2.1, and 0.1 Gg C yr−1 higher, respectively, without the iSPM input. Since carbon burial was the least affected by iSPM (a decrease of around 16 %, in comparison to 50 % for plankton primary and secondary production), the impact of marine ice loss and enhanced land–ocean connectivity should be investigated further in the context of carbon fluxes in expanding polar fjords.

Disentangling the contributions of anthropogenic nutrient input and physical forcing to long-term deoxygenation off the Pearl River Estuary, China

Deoxygenation in estuarine and coastal waters worldwide has been largely attributed to the increasing anthropogenic nutrient input, whereas the contribution by long-term (decadal) changes in physical forcing is less investigated. This study aims to disentangle the impacts of three-decade changes in summer river nutrient concentration and physical forcing on the deoxygenation off a large eutrophic estuary, the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in China. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, we reproduce the observed summer oxygen conditions under the historical (the 1990s) and present (the 2020s) status of river nutrient concentration, freshwater discharge, and wind forcing. We show that the bottom hypoxic (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg/L) area off the PRE in the 2020s has increased by 73 % relative to the 1990s. The expansion is a result of the increased bottom water oxygen consumption outweighing the enhanced vertical oxygen supply, with the former driven by the sharp increase in inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (160 %) and the latter caused by the decadal decline in both freshwater discharge (38 %) and wind speed (12.5 %) in summer. Model experiments suggest that if the observed changes in physical forcing had not occurred, the dramatic increase in anthropogenic nutrient concentrations from the 1990s to 2020s could have led to a much greater expansion of hypoxic area (249 %). On the contrary, the decadal decrease in summer freshwater discharge alone (while keeping the nutrient loading the same as in the 1990s) almost eliminates hypoxia off the PRE by weakening water column stratification and limiting the offshore spread of nutrients and organic matter, whereas the declined wind speed increases the hypoxic area by 247 % mainly through enhancing water column stability. Our results reveal that long-term changes in physical forcing are confounding the effects of anthropogenic nutrient input on deoxygenation, underlining the need to consider regional forcing changes in nutrient management to meet water quality goals.

EAT v1.0.0: a 1D test bed for physical–biogeochemical data assimilation in natural waters

Abstract. Data assimilation (DA) in marine and freshwater systems combines numerical models and observations to deliver the best possible characterization of a waterbody's physical and biogeochemical state. DA underpins the widely used 3D ocean state reanalyses and forecasts produced operationally by, e.g., the Copernicus Marine Service. The use of DA in natural waters is an active field of research, but testing new developments in realistic setting can be challenging as operational DA systems are demanding in terms of computational resources and technical skill. There is a need for test beds that are sufficiently realistic but also efficient to run and easy to operate. Here, we present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and extensible software package that enables data assimilation of physical and biogeochemical variables in a one-dimensional water column. EAT builds on established open-source components for hydrodynamics (GOTM), biogeochemistry (FABM), and data assimilation (PDAF). It is easy to install and operate and is flexible through support for user-written plugins. EAT is well suited to explore and advance the state of the art in DA in natural waters thanks to its support for (1) strongly and weakly coupled data assimilation, (2) observations describing any prognostic and diagnostic element of the physical–biogeochemical model, and (3) the estimation of biogeochemical parameters. Its range of capabilities is demonstrated with three applications: ensemble-based coupled physical–biogeochemical assimilation, the use of variational methods (3D-Var) to assimilate sea surface chlorophyll, and the estimation of biogeochemical parameters.

Model exploration of microplastic effects on zooplankton grazing reveal potential impacts on the global carbon cycle

Amongst the increasing number of anthropogenic stress factors threatening ocean equilibrium, microplastics (MP; < 5 mm) have emerged as particularly worrisome. In situ observations have shown that MP accumulate in large areas at the surface ocean where it may threaten the functioning marine species. In particular, experimental evidence has shown that the grazing rates of several zooplankton species may be significantly altered by MP. These direct impacts on zooplankton may alter nutrient and carbon cycling. However, how these laboratory results may translate into impacts on the global ocean is yet unknown. Here, we use a global coupled physical-biogeochemical model including MP (NEMO/PISCES-PLASTIC) to investigate the impacts of MP exposure on zooplankton grazing rates. Drawing from experimental results, we use varying water contamination impact thresholds to explore the biogeochemical consequences of MP impacts on short (10 years) and long timescales (100 years). Our simulations show that the geographical extent of MP impacts on zooplankton remains restricted to about 10% of the global ocean surface, even after 100 years of constant MP contamination. However, in the most contaminated regions (e.g. the sub-tropical gyres), [MP] has surged from a few mg m−3 to > 50 mg m−3. Despite their oligotrophic nature and limited contribution to the overall ocean carbon cycle, MP impacts on zooplankton grazing could disrupt carbon cycling in these highly contaminated regions (up to 50% reduction in yearly primary production, carbon export fluxes and organic matter remineralisation after 100 years). Our research suggests that persistent MP pollution in the ocean could diminish primary production by 4%. In spite of the large sensitivity of our results to the water contamination impact threshold, we suggest MP impacts on zooplankton grazing may cause an annual loss of 1 Gt yr−1 of exported carbon after 100 years, if MP inputs remain constant globally.

Intraseasonal response of marine planktonic ecosystem to summertime Madden-Julian Oscillation in the South China Sea: A model study

In summer, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) greatly influences the intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea (SCS). Previous studies have revealed MJO effects on surface chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, but the impact of the MJO on the ecosystem's structure and functionality remains unexplored. Here, we investigated the marine ecosystem response to the MJO by analyzing phytoplankton pigment data collected in cruises from 2010 to 2014. The results indicated the strong influence of the MJO on the structure of phytoplankton size classes (PSCs) in the upper 50 m of the SCS basin. To further explore the ecosystem's response to MJO, we utilized a well-calibrated physical-biogeochemical model (ROMS-CoSiNE) of the SCS to conduct numerical experiments with and without MJO forcings. Our model demonstrated that MJO-induced deep mixing and upwelling increased nutrients in the upper layer, increasing the Chl concentration with a higher proportion of nanophytoplankton (15 %) and a lower proportion of picophytoplankton (−20 %). Moreover, The MJO-forced model experiment exhibited a substantial enhancement in primary production (56 %) and export production (23 %), resulting in a notable decrease in the e-ratio. This reduction in the e-ratio cannot be attributed to changes in PSCs but can be explained by the time lag between primary and export production. This lag was prolonged by the physical processes of upwelling and mixing, which slows down the particle sinking. Our results emphasize the important role of MJO in regulating the ecosystem at intraseasonal scale, thus improving our comprehension of the nonsteady dynamics of ecosystems in the SCS.

How uncertain and observable are marine ecosystem indicators in shelf seas?

Operational analysis and forecast products of shelf sea biogeochemistry often lack reliable information on uncertainty. This is problematic, as good quality uncertainty information is both requested by the product end-users and essential for data assimilation. To address this problem we developed a quality-assessed ensemble representation of many leading sources of uncertainty in a coupled marine physical-biogeochemical model of the North-West European Shelf. Based on these ensembles we have estimated the uncertainty of several marine ecosystem health indicators (MEHIs), acting as proxies for biological productivity, phytoplankton community structure, trophic fluxes, deoxygenation, acidification and carbon export. We have also evaluated how observable these MEHIs are from the most widely available observations of total chlorophyll (mostly from the surface), highlighting those MEHIs and locations that need to be better monitored. Our results show that the most uncertain and the least observable MEHI is the phytoplankton community composition, highlighting the value of its observations (and their assimilation) particularly in the UK regional waters. We demonstrate that daily operational estimates of the other MEHIs, produced by the Met Office, are fairly well constrained. We also quantify how much MEHI uncertainties are reduced when one substantially coarsens the MEHI spatial and temporal resolution, as in the global and/or climate applications.

Spatiotemporal variability and drivers of modeled primary production rates in the Northern Humboldt Current System

A coupled physical-biogeochemical model was employed to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of primary production (PP) rates within the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS). The coastal zone spanning 250 km from the shore, from 3°to 18°S, stands out as a highly productive upwelling region, exhibiting an average surface PP value of 2.5 mol C m−3 yr−1. Correspondingly, the average vertically integrated PP within the euphotic layer amounts to 13 mol C m−2 yr−1. In this context, summer emerges as the peak of productivity, yielding 18 mol C m−2 yr−1, while winter signifies the period of least productivity, with 9 mol C m−2 yr−1. Our study revealed that surface PP variability is primarily driven by changes in surface chlorophyll and phytoplanktonic biomass (mainly diatoms), followed by changes in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) levels. During summertime, these three drivers contribute to substantial positive anomalies in surface PP. However, the reduction in nutrient availability resulting from weakened upwelling-favorable winds has a slight negative impact on surface PP rates. Yet, this decline is offset by a positive thermal effect during the warmer season. In contrast, during the winter season, a significant decrease in surface chlorophyll concentrations due to a vertical redistribution into a deeper mixed layer significantly diminishes surface PP. Furthermore, the reduction in both PAR levels and biomass concentrations has a comparable effect, further contributing to the decrease in surface PP rates during wintertime. At a depth of 20 m, changes in PP are primarily driven by variations between the opposing influences of PAR and chlorophyll concentrations. While PAR adheres to the seasonal cycle of warming and cooling throughout the year, chlorophyll-driven anomalies exhibit an inverse pattern to those at the surface, influenced by the vertical dilution effect within the mixed layer. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the complex interplay of drivers that govern PP dynamics across various depths within one of the world’s most productive marine regions.

Understanding seasonal variability of mesozooplankton biomass in the upwelling system of central-southern Chile: A modelling approach

Understanding the mechanisms that influence variability in zooplankton biomass in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) is a critical step in estimating secondary production in the ocean, particularly in the context of biogeochemical modelling and assessing ecosystem productivity. In this study, we utilised a physical-biogeochemical hindcast simulation (2002–2008) to investigate the sources of seasonal and interannual variability of mesozooplankton biomass within the upwelling zone of central-southern Chile. Monthly observations were obtained from an oceanographic time series conducted at Station 18 (36°30′S) off the coast of Concepción, Chile. The first step was to assess the coherence between model outputs and field observations of physical and biogeochemical variables, including the biomass of mesozooplankton. The factors accounting for the variation in biomass at Station 18 were then assessed. In the model, advective flows along the shore and across the shelf control the majority of biomass. The advection effect appears to be more pronounced during the upwelling season (austral spring-summer) than in winter, although it still significantly contributes to biomass variation during the latter. Our physical-biogeochemical model ROMS-PISCES applied on this EBUS showed that alongshore and cross-shelf advection play a crucial role in driving spatial and temporal variability in zooplankton biomass within the upwelling zone. Therefore, it is essential to consider these physical processes when interpreting observational data from fixed time series stations.

Development and application of a bioenergetics growth model for multiple early life stages of an ecologically important marine fish

Spatial and temporal variability in temperature and food availability are key drivers of growth of marine fishes. Growth during the early life stages (ELS's) is tightly coupled to survival, and in turn, can set year-class strength (i.e. annual recruitment) and overall stock productivity of populations and fished stocks. Ontogenetic changes in physiology, dietary preferences, and growth across ELS's can be accounted for within bioenergetics models, but existing models lack resolution within larval and early juvenile stages. We leveraged daily output from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model to force a highly resolved ontogenetic bioenergetics model parametrized for an ecologically important rockfish in the California Current System. Size-at-age predictions closely track empirical growth trajectories of the ELS's. Scenario testing revealed that growth performance is disproportionately driven by changes in temperature compared to food availability. We then expanded the model to incorporate spatial climatological differences in temperature and prey concentration and found that preflexion growth potential is maximized in areas of historical spawning, suggesting the timing and location of reproduction is an adaptive strategy that places larvae in habitat favorable for survival. Growth potential for late-stage larvae (postflexion) is greatest over a broad areal extent, implying that if a particle tracking algorithm was coupled to the bioenergetics model, a wide range of larval dispersal pathways would place postflexion larvae in habitat suitable for rapid growth. Finally, growth potential of pelagic juveniles is maximized over the continental shelf and shelf-break, aligning with high juvenile catch rates from a fisheries-independent survey. In summary, this study (i) serves as a proof of concept that a bioenergetics model with high ontogenetic resolution can reproduce life stage-specific growth trajectories even though the underlying physiology data for model parameterization is imperfect and (ii) can aid future studies aimed at understanding how ecosystem processes interact with ontogenetic growth and changes in year class strength of early life stages of marine fishes.

The Heat and Carbon Characteristics of Modeled Mesoscale Eddies in the South–East Atlantic Ocean

AbstractMesoscale eddies provide critical links between the atmosphere and the ocean interior modulating the exchanges of key climatic tracers across the air‐sea and mixed‐layer interface. Mesoscale eddies, widespread in the Southern Ocean, are unresolved by Earth System Models; to what extent they modify contemporary and future heat and CO2 uptake remains unknown. The missing contribution of mesoscale eddies and their effects on properties and fluxes of heat and CO2 are investigated in the South‐East Atlantic using a mesoscale resolving (1/12°) physical biogeochemical model. Unsupervised Self‐Organizing Maps are used to separate anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies into distinct sub‐categories based on spatial characteristics in relative vorticity. Thermal drivers dominated over non‐thermal on partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2sw) leading to a weaker CO2 sink in anticyclonic eddies and a stronger CO2 sink in cyclonic eddies relative to the climatological mean. Magnitudes and depth extents of tracer anomalies scale with eddy size but are also dependent on background tracer gradients. Resolving only the largest (&gt;50 km radii) eddies leads to underestimations in total magnitude of heat storage by 52% and 77%, and underestimations of 61% and 77% in dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) storage for anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies respectively. The inclusion of smaller eddy features (&lt;50 km) also offsets the asymmetry in heat and CT storage between anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies. Resolving eddies explicitly or improvements in existing parameterizations that fail to sufficiently include eddy effects are crucial to improving estimates of heat and CO2.

A high-resolution physical–biogeochemical model for marine resource applications in the northwest Atlantic (MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 v1.0)

Abstract. We present the development and evaluation of MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 version 1.0, a 1/12∘ model of ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. This model is built using the new regional capabilities in the MOM6 ocean model and is coupled with the Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) biogeochemical model and Sea Ice Simulator version-2 (SIS2) sea ice model. Our goal was to develop a model to provide information to support living-marine-resource applications across management time horizons from seasons to decades. To do this, we struck a balance between a broad, coastwide domain to simulate basin-scale variability and capture cross-boundary issues expected under climate change; a high enough spatial resolution to accurately simulate features like the Gulf Stream separation and advection of water masses through finer-scale coastal features; and the computational economy required to run the long simulations of multiple ensemble members that are needed to quantify prediction uncertainties and produce actionable information. We assess whether MOM6-COBALT-NWA12 is capable of supporting the intended applications by evaluating the model with three categories of metrics: basin-wide indicators of the model's performance, indicators of coastal ecosystem variability and the regional ocean features that drive it, and model run times and computational efficiency. Overall, both the basin-wide and the regional ecosystem-relevant indicators are simulated well by the model. Where notable model biases and errors are present in both types of indicator, they are mainly consistent with the challenges of accurately simulating the Gulf Stream separation, path, and variability: for example, the coastal ocean and shelf north of Cape Hatteras are too warm and salty and have minor biogeochemical biases. During model development, we identified a few model parameters that exerted a notable influence on the model solution, including the horizontal viscosity, mixed-layer restratification, and tidal self-attraction and loading, which we discuss briefly. The computational performance of the model is adequate to support running numerous long simulations, even with the inclusion of coupled biogeochemistry with 40 additional tracers. Overall, these results show that this first version of a regional MOM6 model for the northwest Atlantic Ocean is capable of efficiently and accurately simulating historical basin-wide and regional mean conditions and variability, laying the groundwork for future studies to analyze this variability in detail, develop and improve parameterizations and model components to better capture local ocean features, and develop predictions and projections of future conditions to support living-marine-resource applications across timescales.

Changjiang and Kuroshio contributions to oxygen depletion on the Zhejiang Coast

In recent decades, intensified anthropogenic activities have resulted in increasing occurrence of hypoxia in the East China Sea. Kuroshio, as a natural factor, also threatens the oxygen content over the continental shelf. There have been many studies investigating the different contributions of Changjiang and Kuroshio to oxygen depletion over the continental shelf. This study revisited this issue and further investigated the mechanisms controlling the different role of Changjiang and Kuroshio in oxygen depletion and focused mainly on the Zhejiang Coast. A coupled high-resolution physical-biogeochemical model was used to investigate the connections between the variations in nutrients, chlorophyll, stratification, and oxygen and the delivery of Changjiang diluted water and Kuroshio subsurface water over the shelf, especially on the Zhejiang Coast in the summer of 2017. The distinct features of hypoxia off the Changjiang estuary (severe but transient) and that along the Zhejiang Coast (mild but prolonged) are caused by the different dynamic environments and nutrients sources. North of 30˚N, intense oxygen depletion and bottom hypoxia are typically under the constraint of Changjiang diluted water. While the impacts of upwelled materials associated with the Kuroshio subsurface water enhance southward with the simultaneously weakened impacts from the Changjiang diluted water. Besides confirming the support of upwelling on surface phytoplankton bloom along the Zhejiang Coast, this study detected subsurface chlorophyll maximum immediately underneath the main pycnocline offshore of the Zhejiang Coast during upwelling. This indicated that the upwelled oceanic nutrients were transported further offshore along isopycnals and also fertilized phytoplankton growth at the subsurface. The exacerbation of either anthropogenic or natural factors could potentially intensify oxygen depletion along the Zhejiang Coast.

Air-sea CO2 fluxes and cross-shelf exchange of inorganic carbon in the East China Sea from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model

The East China Sea (ECS) has been reported to be a significant sink of atmospheric CO2, but less is known about horizontal transport of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) across the shelf. A coupled physical-biogeochemical model has been implemented for the ECS to simulate the inorganic carbon system and estimate CO2 fluxes and cross-shelf DIC transport in the ECS. A 6-year model hindcast (2013–2018) was performed and assessed. Multiple existing datasets from in-situ observations are used to constrain and validate the model. The model reproduces the spatial and temporal patterns of nitrogen, chlorophyll and CO2 parameters in general agreement with observations. Modeling estimation reveals that the ECS takes up CO2 at an annual mean rate of about 8.20 ± 3.13 mmol m−2 d−1, and experiences substantial seasonal variability. The total annual CO2 uptake in the ECS is about 21.55 Tg C yr−1. Modeling estimation suggests that the biological processes contribute to about 15 % of the shelf CO2 uptake in the ECS, leaving ~80 % of the shelf uptake contributed by other physical-chemical processes, e.g., physical pump and/or solubility pump. The horizontal fluxes of DIC between the ECS and the adjacent ocean are more than two orders of magnitude larger than the air-sea CO2 flux on the ECS and result in a net DIC export of about ~33.8 ± 14.87 Tg C yr−1 from the shelf area. Modeling results suggest that this conveyance of DIC to the open ocean is equivalent to about 70 % of the inorganic carbon inflow from riverine and atmospheric pathways in the annual scale.

Mechanisms Controlling Interannual Variability of Seasonal Hypoxia Off the Changjiang River Estuary

AbstractHypoxia has long been a symptom of deteriorating ecosystem that threatens the health of estuarine and coastal waters. Episodic hypoxia events and intraseasonal variation of coastal hypoxia have been amply investigated. However, interannual variability of coastal hypoxia has only been assessed in few regions. Bottom hypoxia forms seasonally off the Changjiang River Estuary in the East China Sea mainly due to the large riverine inputs. Large river discharge and its interactions with ambient water combine to contribute to the development of episodic hypoxia events and the intraseasonal migration of bottom hypoxia. However, little is known about the interannual variation of bottom hypoxia in this region. This study used a well‐evaluated, coupled physical–biogeochemical model to explore the long‐term feature of hypoxia in the East China Sea. The bottom water in the hypoxic zone lost oxygen with a rate of −1.2 mmol/m3/year. Bottom hypoxia showed large interannual variations of geographical location, severity, volume expansion, and sustainment. Large Changjiang River discharge was a prerequisite for hypoxia formation and the associated interannual variation. The interannual variations in the direction and strength of shelf wind controlled long‐term distribution of Changjiang diluted water. The delivery of freshwater fundamentally determined the strength of vertical stratification and the rates of biogeochemical cycles, contributing 73% of the interannual variation of bottom hypoxia.

Summer bottom oxygen depletion dynamics and the associated physical structure in the Bohai Sea

Summertime oxygen depletion has been more and more frequently observed in the bottom water of the Bohai Sea in the last decade. Based on comprehensive hydrography and microstructure measurements in summer in the Bohai Sea, the physical structure and bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics were investigated. The study area is characterized by strong tidal currents and obvious horizontal temperature and DO gradients in the bottom boundary layer. The strong tidal forcing induces large near-bottom turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates (ϵ ~ 5 × 10-5 W kg-1) which can be well parameterized by the law of the wall. Tidal horizontal advection effects dominate the short-term variations of bottom hydrography. Although the residual current is in a near-perpendicular direction with the horizontal DO gradient (~94°), the horizontal residual DO transport was calculated to be 67.4 mg m-2 d-1 which is ~ 33% of the magnitude of sediment oxygen demand. During the observation period, we observed an intense high-turbidity event leading to a severe drawdown of near-bottom DO concentration (0.16 mg L-1) in 1.5 hours. The DO consumption rate due to this event was then estimated to be ~ 33.3 g m-2 d-1 (1.39 g m-2 h-1) which is two orders of magnitude larger than the sediment oxygen demand. Rapid DO consumption can be induced by the great increase in bioavailable surface area in bottom water and seabed when benthic organic matter is resuspended. This process should be incorporated into the coupled physical-biogeochemical model to improve accuracy in simulating DO depletion.