Phylodynamic Analysis Research Articles

The Spatial Diffusion of Cherry Leaf Roll Virus Revealed by a Bayesian Phylodynamic Analysis.

Cherry leaf roll virus (CLRV) is an important plant pathogen that causes severe and detrimental effects on cherry and other fruit plants. Despite recent progress in plant pathology, molecular biology, and population genetics of CLRV, the spatiotemporal spread of this virus remains poorly studied. In this study, we employed a Bayesian phylodynamics framework to investigate the spatial diffusion patterns of CLRV by analyzing the coat protein gene sequences of 81 viral isolates collected from five different countries. Consistent with the trade of cherry, our Bayesian phylodynamic analyses pointed to viral origins in New Zealand and identified multiple migration pathways between Germany and other countries, suggesting that Germany has played an important role in CLRV transmission. The results of our study will be useful in developing sustainable management strategies to control this pathogen.

Phylodynamic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 spread in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, highlights how metropolitan areas act as dispersal hubs for new variants.

During the first semester of 2021, all of Brazil has suffered an intense wave of COVID-19 associated with the Gamma variant. In July, the first cases of Delta variant were detected in the state of Rio de Janeiro. In this work, we have employed phylodynamic methods to analyse more than 1 600 genomic sequences of Delta variant collected until September in Rio de Janeiro to reconstruct how this variant has surpassed Gamma and dispersed throughout the state. After the introduction of Delta, it has initially spread mostly in the homonymous city of Rio de Janeiro, the most populous of the state. In a second stage, dispersal occurred to mid- and long-range cities, which acted as new close-range hubs for spread. We observed that the substitution of Gamma by Delta was possibly caused by its higher viral load, a proxy for transmissibility. This variant turnover prompted a new surge in cases, but with lower lethality than was observed during the peak caused by Gamma. We reason that high vaccination rates in the state of Rio de Janeiro were possibly what prevented a higher number of deaths.

Comprehensive phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses of global Senecavirus A.

Senecavirus A (SVA) is a member of the genus Senecavirus in the family Picornaviridae that infects pigs and shows symptoms similar to foot and mouth diseases and other vesicular diseases. It is difficult to prevent, thus, causing tremendous economic loss to the pig industry. However, the global transmission routes of SVA and its natural origins remain unclear. In this study, we processed representative SVA sequences from the GenBank database along with 10 newly isolated SVA strains from the field samples collected from our lab to explore the origins, population characteristics, and transmission patterns of SVA. The SVA strains were firstly systematically divided into eight clades including Clade I–VII and Clade Ancestor based on the maximum likelihood phylogenetic inference. Phylogeographic and phylodynamics analysis within the Bayesian statistical framework revealed that SVA originated in the United States in the 1980s and afterward spread to different countries and regions. Our analysis of viral transmission routes also revealed its historical spread from the United States and the risk of the global virus prevalence. Overall, our study provided a comprehensive assessment of the phylogenetic characteristics, origins, history, and geographical evolution of SVA on a global scale, unlocking insights into developing efficient disease management strategies.

Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Northwestern Argentina

Studies about the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in different backgrounds such as naive populations are still scarce, especially from South America. This work aimed to study the introduction and diversification pattern of SARS-CoV-2 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Northwestern Argentina (NWA) region and to analyze the evolutionary dynamics of the main lineages found. In this study, we analyzed a total of 260 SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences from Argentina, belonging to the Provinces of Jujuy, Salta, and Tucumán, from March 31st, 2020, to May 22nd, 2021, which covered the full first wave and the early second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina. In the first wave, eight lineages were identified: B.1.499 (76.9%), followed by N.5 (10.2%), B.1.1.274 (3.7%), B.1.1.348 (3.7%), B.1 (2.8%), B.1.600 (0.9%), B.1.1.33 (0.9%) and N.3 (0.9%). During the early second wave, the first-wave lineages were displaced by the introduction of variants of concern (VOC) (Alpha, Gamma), or variants of interest (VOI) (Lambda, Zeta, Epsilon) and other lineages with more limited distribution. Phylodynamic analyses of the B.1.499 and N.5, the two most prevalent lineages in the NWA, revealed that the rate of evolution of lineage N.5 (7.9 × 10−4 substitutions per site per year, s/s/y) was a ∼40% faster than that of lineage B.1.499 (5.6 × 10−4 s/s/y), although both are in the same order of magnitude than other non-VOC lineages. No mutations associated with a biological characteristic of importance were observed as signatures markers of the phylogenetic groups established in Northwestern Argentina, however, single sequences in non-VOC lineages did present mutations of biological importance or associated with VOCs as sporadic events, showing that many of these mutations could emerge from circulation in the general population. This study contributed to the knowledge about the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in a pre-vaccination and without post-exposure immunization period.

HIV-1 subtype B spread through cross-border clusters in the Balkans: a molecular analysis in view of incidence trends.

To analyze phylogenetic relations and assess the role of cross-border clusters in the spread of HIV-1 subtype B across the Balkans, given the general trends of new HIV diagnoses in seven Balkan countries. Retrospective phylogenetic and trend analysis. In-depth phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis performed on 2415 HIV-1 subtype B sequences from 1999 to 2019 using maximal likelihood and Bayesian methods. The joinpoint regression analysis of new HIV diagnoses by country and modes of transmission using 2004-2019 ECDC data. Ninety-three HIV-1 Subtype B transmission clusters (68% of studied sequences) were detected of which four cross-border clusters (11% of studied sequences). Phylodynamic analysis showed activity of cross-border clusters up until the mid-2000s, with a subsequent stationary growth phase. Phylogeography analyses revealed reciprocal spread patterns between Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro and several introductions to Romania from these countries and Croatia. The joinpoint analysis revealed a reduction in new HIV diagnoses in Romania, Greece and Slovenia, whereas an increase in Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Montenegro, predominantly among MSM. Differing trends of new HIV diagnoses in the Balkans mirror differences in preventive policies implemented in participating countries. Regional spread of HIV within the countries of former Yugoslavia has continued to play an important role even after country break-up, whereas the spread of subtype B through multiple introductions to Romania suggested the changing pattern of travel and migration linked to European integration of Balkan countries in the early 2000s.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 CRF63_02A6 sub-epidemic.

HIV-1 epidemic in Russia is one of the fastest growing in the world reaching 1.14 million people living with HIV-1 (PLWH) in 2021. Since mid-1990s, the HIV-1 epidemic in Russia has started to grow substantially due to the multiple HIV-1 outbreaks among persons who inject drugs (PWID) leading to expansion of the HIV-1 sub-subtype A6 (former Soviet Union (FSU) subtype A). In 2006, a local HIV-1 sub-epidemic caused by the distribution of novel genetic lineage CRF63_02A6 was identified in Siberia. In this study, we used a comprehensive dataset of CRF63_02A6 pol gene sequences to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamic of the HIV-1 CRF63_02A6 sub-epidemic. This study includes all the available CRF63_02A6 HIV-1 pol gene sequences from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) HIV Sequence Database. The HIV-1 subtypes of those sequences were conferred using phylogenetic analysis, and two automated HIV-1 subtyping tools Stanford HIVdb Program and COMET. Ancestral state reconstruction and origin date were estimated using Nextstrain. Evolutionary rate and phylodynamic analysis were estimated using BEAST v 1.10.4. CRF63_02A6 was assigned for 872 pol gene sequences using phylogenetic analysis approach. Predominant number (n = 832; 95.4%) of those sequences were from Russia; the remaining 40 (4.6%) sequences were from countries of Central Asia. Out of 872 CRF63_02A6 sequences, the corresponding genetic variant was assigned for 75.7 and 79.8% of sequences by Stanford and COMET subtyping tools, respectively. Dated phylogenetic analysis of the CRF63_02A6 sequences showed that the virus most likely originated in Novosibirsk, Russia, in 2005. Over the last two decades CRF63_02A6 has been widely distributed across Russia and has been sporadically detected in countries of Central Asia. Introduction of new genetic variant into mature sub-subtype A6 and CRF02_AGFSU epidemics could promote the increase of viral genetic diversity and emergence of new recombinant forms. Further HIV-1 studies are needed due to a continuing rapid virus distribution. Also, the implementation of HIV-1 prevention programs is required to reduce HIV-1 transmission. This study also highlights the discrepancies in HIV-1 subtyping approaches. The reference lists of HIV-1 sequences implemented in widely used HIV-1 automated subtyping tools need to be updated to provide reliable results.

Connect to Protect: Dynamics and Genetic Connections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Poultry from 2016 to 2021 in Germany.

During autumn/winter in 2016–2017 and 2020–2021, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) caused severe outbreaks in Germany and Europe. Multiple clade 2.3.4.4b H5 HPAI subtypes were responsible for increased mortality in wild birds and high mortality and massive losses in the poultry sector. To clarify putative entry sources and delineate interconnections between outbreaks in poultry holdings and wild birds, we applied whole-genome sequencing and phylodynamic analyses combined with the results of epidemiological outbreak investigations. Varying outbreak dynamics of the distinct reassortants allowed for the identification of individual, putatively wild bird-mediated entries into backyard holdings, several clusters comprising poultry holdings, local virus circulation for several weeks, direct farm-to-farm transmission and potential reassortment within a turkey holding with subsequent spill-over of the novel reassorted virus into the wild bird population. Whole-genome sequencing allowed for a unique high-resolution molecular epidemiology analysis of HPAIV H5Nx outbreaks and is recommended to be used as a standard tool. The presented detailed account of the genetic, temporal, and geographical characteristics of the recent German HPAI H5Nx situation emphasizes the role of poultry holdings as an important source of novel genetic variants and reassortants.

A class of identifiable phylogenetic birth–death models

In a striking result, Louca and Pennell [S. Louca, M. W. Pennell, Nature 580, 502-505 (2020)] recently proved that a large class of phylogenetic birth-death models is statistically unidentifiable from lineage-through-time (LTT) data: Any pair of sufficiently smooth birth and death rate functions is "congruent" to an infinite collection of other rate functions, all of which have the same likelihood for any LTT vector of any dimension. As Louca and Pennell argue, this fact has distressing implications for the thousands of studies that have utilized birth-death models to study evolution. In this paper, we qualify their finding by proving that an alternative and widely used class of birth-death models is indeed identifiable. Specifically, we show that piecewise constant birth-death models can, in principle, be consistently estimated and distinguished from one another, given a sufficiently large extant timetree and some knowledge of the present-day population. Subject to mild regularity conditions, we further show that any unidentifiable birth-death model class can be arbitrarily closely approximated by a class of identifiable models. The sampling requirements needed for our results to hold are explicit and are expected to be satisfied in many contexts such as the phylodynamic analysis of a global pandemic.

Robust Phylodynamic Analysis of Genetic Sequencing Data from Structured Populations.

The multi-type birth–death model with sampling is a phylodynamic model which enables the quantification of past population dynamics in structured populations based on phylogenetic trees. The BEAST 2 package bdmm implements an algorithm for numerically computing the probability density of a phylogenetic tree given the population dynamic parameters under this model. In the initial release of bdmm, analyses were computationally limited to trees consisting of up to approximately 250 genetic samples. We implemented important algorithmic changes to bdmm which dramatically increased the number of genetic samples that could be analyzed and which improved the numerical robustness and efficiency of the calculations. Including more samples led to the improved precision of parameter estimates, particularly for structured models with a high number of inferred parameters. Furthermore, we report on several model extensions to bdmm, inspired by properties common to empirical datasets. We applied this improved algorithm to two partly overlapping datasets of the Influenza A virus HA sequences sampled around the world—one with 500 samples and the other with only 175—for comparison. We report and compare the global migration patterns and seasonal dynamics inferred from each dataset. In this way, we show the information that is gained by analyzing the bigger dataset, which became possible with the presented algorithmic changes to bdmm. In summary, bdmm allows for the robust, faster, and more general phylodynamic inference of larger datasets.

Molecular Epidemiology and Baseline Resistance of Hepatitis C Virus to Direct Acting Antivirals in Croatia.

Molecular epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is exceptionally complex due to the highly diverse HCV genome. Genetic diversity, transmission dynamics, and epidemic history of the most common HCV genotypes were inferred by population sequencing of the HCV NS3, NS5A, and NS5B region followed by phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis. The results of this research suggest high overall prevalence of baseline NS3 resistance associate substitutions (RAS) (33.0%), moderate prevalence of NS5A RAS (13.7%), and low prevalence of nucleoside inhibitor NS5B RAS (8.3%). Prevalence of RAS significantly differed according to HCV genotype, with the highest prevalence of baseline resistance to NS3 inhibitors and NS5A inhibitors observed in HCV subtype 1a (68.8%) and subtype 1b (21.3%), respectively. Phylogenetic tree reconstructions showed two distinct clades within the subtype 1a, clade I (62.4%) and clade II (37.6%). NS3 RAS were preferentially associated with clade I. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that 27 (9.0%) HCV sequences had a presumed epidemiological link with another sequence and classified into 13 transmission pairs or clusters which were predominantly comprised of subtype 3a viruses and commonly detected among intravenous drug users (IDU). Phylodynamic analyses highlighted an exponential increase in subtype 1a and 3a effective population size in the late 20th century, which is a period associated with an explosive increase in the number of IDU in Croatia.

Phylogenetic analysis and comparative genomics of SARS-CoV-2 from survivor and non-survivor COVID-19 patients in Cordoba, Argentina

BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 virus is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. To better understand the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 early in the pandemic in the Province of Cordoba, Argentina, we performed a comparative genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 strains detected in survivors and non-survivors of COVID-19. We also carried out an epidemiological study to find a possible association between the symptoms and comorbidities of these patients with their clinical outcomes.ResultsA representative sampling was performed in different cities in the Province of Cordoba. Ten and nine complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes were obtained by next-generation sequencing of nasopharyngeal specimens from non-survivors and survivors, respectively. Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses revealed multiple introductions of the most common lineages in South America, including B.1, B.1.1.1, B.1.499, and N.3. Fifty-six mutations were identified, with 14% of those in common between the non-survivor and survivor groups. Specific SARS-CoV-2 mutations for survivors constituted 25% whereas for non-survivors they were 41% of the repertoire, indicating partial selectivity. The non-survivors’ variants showed higher diversity in 9 genes, with a majority in Nsp3, while the survivors’ variants were detected in 5 genes, with a higher incidence in the Spike protein. At least one comorbidity was present in 60% of non-survivor patients and 33% of survivors. Age 75–85 years (p = 0.018) and hospitalization (p = 0.019) were associated with non-survivor patients. Related to the most common symptoms, the prevalence of fever was similar in both groups, while dyspnea was more frequent among non-survivors and cough among survivors.ConclusionsThis study describes the association of clinical characteristics with the clinical outcomes of survivors and non-survivors of COVID-19 patients, and the specific mutations found in the genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 in each patient group. Future research on the functional characterization of novel mutations should be performed to understand the role of these variations in SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and COVID-19 disease outcomes. These results add new genomic data to better understand the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 variants that spread in Argentina during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Genomic epidemiology of seasonal influenza circulation in China during prolonged border closure from 2020 to 2021.

China experienced a resurgence of seasonal influenza activity throughout 2021 despite intermittent control measures and prolonged international border closure. We show genomic evidence for multiple A(H3N2), A(H1N1), and B/Victoria transmission lineages circulating over 3 years, with the 2021 resurgence mainly driven by two B/Victoria clades. Phylodynamic analysis revealed unsampled ancestry prior to widespread outbreaks in December 2020, showing that influenza lineages can circulate cryptically under non-pharmaceutical interventions enacted against COVID-19. Novel haemagglutinin gene mutations and altered age profiles of infected individuals were observed, and Jiangxi province was identified as a major source for nationwide outbreaks. Following major holiday periods, fluctuations in the effective reproduction number were observed, underscoring the importance of influenza vaccination prior to holiday periods or travel. Extensive heterogeneity in seasonal influenza circulation patterns in China determined by historical strain circulation indicates that a better understanding of demographic patterns is needed for improving effective controls.

Phylodynamic analysis of current Porcine circovirus 4 sequences: Does the porcine circoviruses evolutionary history repeat itself?

Four porcine circoviruses (PCVs) have been discovered over time and seem to share a common history, particularly for PCV-2 and -3. Despite being reported as apparently new viruses, rapidly emerging as a threat for the worldwide swine industry, they were then proven to have been circulating and coexisting with domestic pigs undetected for decades, without causing relevant health issues. A similar scenario could be true for the most recently identified PCV-4. However, its detection in Asia only and the limited genetic variability could suggest a truly recent origin. To investigate which of the above-mentioned scenarios is more plausible, a phylodynamic analysis was performed on all available PCV-4 sequences for which adequate metadata were available to reconstruct the viral history and evolution. Obtained results suggest an ancient origin, at least decades ago, followed by a prolonged low-level circulation and a moderate increase in viral population size after the second half of the XX century, in parallel with a progressive rise in pig population and farming intensification. A relevant local geographical clustering was also highlighted. The reason behind such low spreading capacity and limited geographical distribution compared to other circoviruses is currently obscure and will require dedicated studies, involving a more extensive sampling and sequencing activity.

Phylodynamic and phylogeographic reconstruction of beak and feather disease virus epidemiology and its implications for the international exotic bird trade.

Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) infects domestic and wild psittacine species and is able to cause progressive beak, claw and feather malformation and necrosis. In addition to having an impact on the health and welfare of domesticated birds, BFDV represents a significant threat to wild endangered species. Understanding the epidemiology, dynamics, viral migration rate, interaction between wild and domestic animals and the effect of implemented control strategies is fundamental in controlling the spread of the disease. With this in mind, a phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis has been performed on a database of more than 400 replication-associated protein (Rep) gene (ORF1) sequences downloaded from Genbank including some recently generated sequences from fifteen samples collected in Namibia. The results allowed us to reconstruct the variation of viral population size and demonstrated the effect of enforced international bans on these dynamics. A good correlation was found between viral migration rate and the intensity of animal trade between regions over time. A dominant flux of viral strains was observed from wild to domestic populations, highlighting the directionality of viral transmission and the risk associated with the capturing and trade of wild birds. Nevertheless, the flow of viruses from domestic to wild species was not negligible and should be considered as a threat to biodiversity. Therefore, considering the strong relationship demonstrated in this study between animal trade and BFDV viral fluxes more effort should be made to prevent contact opportunities between wild and domestic populations from different countries in order to control disease spread.

The international and intercontinental spread and expansion of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella Typhi: a genomic epidemiology study

SummaryBackgroundThe emergence of increasingly antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S Typhi) threatens to undermine effective treatment and control. Understanding where antimicrobial resistance in S Typhi is emerging and spreading is crucial towards formulating effective control strategies.MethodsIn this genomic epidemiology study, we sequenced the genomes of 3489 S Typhi strains isolated from prospective enteric fever surveillance studies in Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India (between 2014 and 2019), and combined these with a global collection of 4169 S Typhi genome sequences isolated between 1905 and 2018 to investigate the temporal and geographical patterns of emergence and spread of antimicrobial-resistant S Typhi. We performed non-parametric phylodynamic analyses to characterise changes in the effective population size of fluoroquinolone-resistant, extensively drug-resistant (XDR), and azithromycin-resistant S Typhi over time. We inferred timed phylogenies for the major S Typhi sublineages and used ancestral state reconstruction methods to estimate the frequency and timing of international and intercontinental transfers.FindingsOur analysis revealed a declining trend of multidrug resistant typhoid in south Asia, except for Pakistan, where XDR S Typhi emerged in 2016 and rapidly replaced less-resistant strains. Mutations in the quinolone-resistance determining region (QRDR) of S Typhi have independently arisen and propagated on at least 94 occasions, nearly all occurring in south Asia. Strains with multiple QRDR mutations, including triple mutants with high-level fluoroquinolone resistance, have been increasing in frequency and displacing strains with fewer mutations. Strains containing acrB mutations, conferring azithromycin resistance, emerged in Bangladesh around 2013 and effective population size of these strains has been steadily increasing. We found evidence of frequent international (n=138) and intercontinental transfers (n=59) of antimicrobial-resistant S Typhi, followed by local expansion and replacement of drug-susceptible clades.InterpretationIndependent acquisition of plasmids and homoplastic mutations conferring antimicrobial resistance have occurred repeatedly in multiple lineages of S Typhi, predominantly arising in south Asia before spreading to other regions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluating whole HIV-1 genome sequence for estimation of incidence and migration in a rural South African community.

Background: South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in the world, with HIV prevalence and transmission patterns varying greatly between provinces. Transmission between regions is still poorly understood, but phylodynamics of HIV-1 evolution can reveal how many infections are attributable to contacts outside a given community. We analysed whole genome HIV-1 genetic sequences to estimate incidence and the proportion of transmissions between communities in Hlabisa, a rural South African community. Methods: We separately analysed HIV-1 for gag, pol, and env genes sampled from 2,503 PLWHIV. We estimated time-scaled phylogenies by maximum likelihood under a molecular clock model. Phylodynamic models were fitted to time-scaled trees to estimate transmission rates, effective number of infections, incidence through time, and the proportion of infections imported to Hlabisa. We also partitioned time-scaled phylogenies with significantly different distributions of coalescent times. Results: Phylodynamic analyses showed similar trends in epidemic growth rates between 1980 and 1990. Model-based estimates of incidence and effective number of infections were consistent across genes. Parameter estimates with gag were generally smaller than those estimated with pol and env. When estimating the proportions of new infections in Hlabisa from immigration or transmission from external sources, our posterior median estimates were 85% (95% credible interval (CI) = 78%-92%) for gag, 62% (CI = 40%-78%) for pol, and 77% (CI = 58%-90%) for env in 2015. Analysis of phylogenetic partitions by gene showed that most close global reference sequences clustered within a single partition. This suggests local evolving epidemics or potential unmeasured heterogeneity in the population. Conclusions: We estimated consistent epidemic dynamic trends for gag, pol and env genes using phylodynamic models. There was a high probability that new infections were not attributable to endogenous transmission within Hlabisa, suggesting high inter-connectedness between communities in rural South Africa.

Evolution, Transmission, and Pathogenicity of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus A (H5N8) Clade 2.3.4.4, South Korea, 2014-2016.

During 2014–2016, clade 2.3.4.4 H5N8 high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) caused the largest known avian influenza epidemic in South Korea. Based on data from earlier H5N8 outbreaks, primitive H5N8 virus in South Korea was classified into five subgroups: C1, C2, C3, C4, and C5. The present study investigated the pathogenic and molecular epidemiologic characteristics of H5N8 viruses obtained from 388 cases of poultry farms and 85 cases of wild bird infections in South Korea during 2014–2016. Representative viruses of subgroups C1, C2, and C4 showed significant pathobiological differences in specific pathogen-free (SPF) chickens, with the H1731 (C1) virus showing substantially lower infectivity, transmissibility, and pathogenicity than the H2102 (C2) and H1924 (C4) viruses. Full genome sequence analysis showed the number of mutations that significantly increased in domestic duck-origin H5N8 HPAIVs compared to the viruses from gallinaceous poultry. These differences may have been due to the long-term circulation of viruses in domestic duck farms. The same mutations, at positions 219 and 757 of PB1, independently evolving in the C0, C1, and C2 subgroups may have been positively selected, resulting in convergent evolution at the amino acid level. Bayesian discrete trait phylodynamic analysis (DTA) indicated multiple introductions of H5N8 HPAIV from wild birds into domestic poultry in various regions in South Korea. Following initial viral introduction into domestic duck farms in the western part of Korea, domestic ducks played a major role in viral transmission and maintenance. These findings highlight the need for continued genomic surveillance and pathobiological characterization of HPAIV in birds. Enhanced biosecurity in poultry farms should be implemented to prevent the introduction, maintenance, and spread of HPAIV.

Genomic epidemiology of Salmonella Typhi in Central Division, Fiji, 2012 to 2016

SummaryBackgroundTyphoid fever is endemic in some Pacific Island Countries including Fiji and Samoa yet genomic surveillance is not routine in such settings. Previous studies suggested imports of the global H58 clade of Salmonella enterica var Typhi (Salmonella Typhi) contribute to disease in these countries which, given the MDR potential of H58, does not auger well for treatment. The objective of the study was to define the genomic epidemiology of Salmonella Typhi in Fiji.MethodsGenomic sequencing approaches were implemented to study the distribution of 255 Salmonella Typhi isolates from the Central Division of Fiji. We augmented epidemiological surveillance and Bayesian phylogenomic approaches with a multi-year typhoid case-control study to define geospatial patterns among typhoid cases.FindingsGenomic analyses showed Salmonella Typhi from Fiji resolved into 2 non-H58 genotypes with isolates from the two dominant ethnic groups, the Indigenous (iTaukei) and non-iTaukei genetically indistinguishable. Low rates of international importation of clones was observed and overall, there were very low levels an antibiotic resistance within the endemic Fijian typhoid genotypes. Genomic epidemiological investigations were able to identify previously unlinked case clusters. Bayesian phylodynamic analyses suggested that genomic variation within the larger endemic Salmonella Typhi genotype expanded at discreet times, then contracted.InterpretationCyclones and flooding drove ‘waves’ of typhoid outbreaks in Fiji which, through population aggregation, poor sanitation and water safety, and then mobility of the population, spread clones more widely. Minimal international importations of new typhoid clones suggest that targeted local intervention strategies may be useful in controlling endemic typhoid infection. These findings add to our understanding of typhoid transmission networks in an endemic island country with broad implications, particularly across Pacific Island Countries.FundingThis work was supported by the Coalition Against Typhoid through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [grant number OPP1017518], the Victorian Government, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, the Australian Research Council, and the Fiji Ministry of Health and Medical Services.

Human pathogenic RNA viruses establish noncompeting lineages by occupying independent niches

Many pathogenic viruses are endemic among human populations and can cause a broad variety of diseases, some potentially leading to devastating pandemics. How virus populations maintain diversity and what selective pressures drive population turnover is not thoroughly understood. We conducted a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 27 human pathogenic RNA viruses spanning diverse life history traits, in search of unifying trends that shape virus evolution. For most virus species, we identify multiple, cocirculating lineages with low turnover rates. These lineages appear to be largely noncompeting and likely occupy semiindependent epidemiological niches that are not regionally or seasonally defined. Typically, intralineage mutational signatures are similar to interlineage signatures. The principal exception are members of the family Picornaviridae, for which mutations in capsid protein genes are primarily lineage defining. Interlineage turnover is slower than expected under a neutral model, whereas intralineage turnover is faster than the neutral expectation, further supporting the existence of independent niches. The persistence of virus lineages appears to stem from limited outbreaks within small communities, so that only a small fraction of the global susceptible population is infected at any time. As disparate communities become increasingly connected through globalization, interaction and competition between lineages might increase as well, which could result in changing selective pressures and increased diversification and/or pathogenicity. Thus, in addition to zoonotic events, ongoing surveillance of familiar, endemic viruses appears to merit global attention with respect to the prevention or mitigation of future pandemics.

Viruses Previously Identified in Brazil as Belonging to HIV-1 CRF72_BF1 Represent Two Closely Related Circulating Recombinant Forms, One of Which, Designated CRF122_BF1, Is Also Circulating in Spain.

Circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) are important components of the HIV-1 pandemic. Those derived from recombination between subtype B and subsubtype F1, with 18 reported, most of them of South American origin, are among the most diverse. In this study, we identified a HIV-1 BF1 recombinant cluster that is expanding in Spain, transmitted mainly via heterosexual contact, which, analyzed in near full-length genomes in four viruses, exhibited a coincident BF1 mosaic structure, with 12 breakpoints, that fully coincided with that of two viruses (10BR_MG003 and 10BR_MG005) from Brazil, previously classified as CRF72_BF1. The three remaining Brazilian viruses (10BR_MG002, 10BR_MG004, and 10BR_MG008) previously identified as CRF72_BF1 exhibited mosaic structures highly similar, but not identical, to that of the Spanish viruses and to 10BR_MG003 and 10BR_MG005, with discrepant subtypes in two short genome segments, located in pol and gp120env. Based on these results, we propose that the five viruses from Brazil previously identified as CRF72_BF1 actually belong to two closely related CRFs, one comprising 10BR_MG002, 10BR_MG004, and 10BR_MG008, which keep their CRF72_BF1 designation, and the other, designated CRF122_BF1, comprising 10BR_MG003, 10BR_MG005, and the viruses of the identified Spanish cluster. Three other BF1 recombinant genomes, two from Brazil and one from Italy, previously identified as unique recombinant forms, were classified as CRF72_BF1. CRF122_BF1, but not CRF72_BF1, was associated with protease L89M substitution, which was reported to contribute to antiretroviral drug resistance. Phylodynamic analyses estimate the emergence of CRF122_BF1 in Brazil around 1987. Given their close phylogenetic relationship and similar structures, the grouping of CRF72_BF1 and CRF122_BF1 in a CRF family is proposed.