Photovoltaics In Germany Research Articles

A Comparative Analysis of Data Source’s Impact on Renewable Energy Scenario Assessment—The Example of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaics in Germany

The German government aims to convert its energy system to renewable energy by 2045. This requires a comprehensive understanding of land eligibility for renewables, particularly land-intensive ground-mounted photovoltaics (GM-PV). Federal states must set aside at least 2% of their land for renewable energy. This target value was derived using a top-down energy demand approach. Georeferenced land use data can be used to make bottom-up estimates. This study investigates how the choice of data source influences the bottom-up evaluation of land eligibility for GM-PV installations in Germany. This study evaluates the quality of data sources and their applicability for GM-PV scenario assessment by comparing the official data source Basis-DLM as the reference with the open-access data sources OpenStreetMap (OSM), Corine Land Cover (CLC), and Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). The intersection over union (IoU) and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) methods were used to analyse the differences in land use and eligibility due to the quality of the data sources and to compare their accuracy. The study’s results show the crucial role of data source selection in estimating the potential for GM-PV in Germany. The results indicate that open-access data overestimate land eligibility by 4.0% to 4.5% compared to the official Basis-DLM data. Spatial similarities and discrepancies between the OSM, CEMS CLC, and Basis-DLM land uses were identified. The CLC data exhibit higher consistency with Basis-DLM. These findings emphasise the importance of selecting the appropriate data source depending on the purpose and the use of official data sources for accurate and spatially differentiated decision-making and project planning at different scales. Open-access data sources can be applied for initial orientation and large-scale rough assessment as they balance data accuracy and accessibility.

Why German households won’t cover their roofs in photovoltaic panels: And whether policy interventions, rebound effects and heat pumps might change their minds

Rooftop photovoltaics in Germany generate around 15 TWh of electricity per year, and there is sufficient roof area to increase this many times over. Germany’s transition to renewable electricity requires large increases in rooftop and field-based photovoltaics. However, for household systems, each kWh fed into the grid pays only €0.0653, while households gain a marginal benefit of €0.334 for each kWh of their own electricity they consume. This deters households from installing large rooftop systems, where a large proportion of self-generated electricity is fed into the grid. This study uses cost-benefit analyses based on quarter-hourly electricity data, to estimate economically optimum sized photovoltaic systems, for a typical detached house. It finds that, for a range of battery sizes, optimal systems generate about the same amount as the household consumes, but use only about half of available roof space. Heat pumps and rebound effects increase this slightly. A subsidy of 10eurocents/kWh for grid feed-in would make the largest systems the most profitable, but this would bring further problems. Policymakers should aim for more households to adopt photovoltaics, rather than recommending larger systems for those who do. They should also promote the synergy between heat pumps and photovoltaics.

Beyond innovation and deployment: Modeling the impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies in Germany's solar policy mix

Governments around the world try to accelerate sociotechnical change toward sustainability by introducing policy mixes that combine technology-push and demand-pull instruments. Beyond innovation and deployment, other objectives, such as domestic job and industry creation, are usually part of these policy mixes. However, little is known about how policy mixes should be designed and interactions between policy instruments considered when governments try to achieve multiple objectives simultaneously. We address these questions using an agent-based model of the sociotechnical system for solar photovoltaics in Germany that simulates technology adoption, industry dynamics, international spillovers and trade. By changing public spending on research and development and the solar feed-in tariff, forty-five variations of the historical policy mix in Germany are systematically evaluated. The results show that a narrow focus on innovation and deployment outcomes by academic researchers can lead to recommendations for the design of policy mixes that compromise key dimensions of sociotechnical change, such as job creation. Moreover, the simulations reveal that, because of path-dependent interactions between policy instruments, minor changes in the design of policy instruments can lead to vastly different policy outcomes. These findings have important implications for the literature on policy mixes, technology-push and demand-pull instruments, and sociotechnical transitions.

The Contribution of Energy Communities to the Upscaling of Photovoltaics in Germany and Italy

Energy communities (EC) are among the new actors in the energy market, playing an important role in the uptake of photovoltaics (PV) in European markets. This paper estimates their aggregate contribution to the low-carbon energy transition in terms of installed capacities for PV and evaluates their economic performance comparing with market prices. We compiled a database of PV facilities with 3672 entries for Germany and 64 entries for Italy. Our statistical analysis does not support an economic under-performance of EC. The aggregate contribution of EC currently amounts to 600–838 MWp installed capacity in Germany and 10.6 MWp installed capacity in Italy, which makes 1.2–1.7% and 0.07% of all PV installations in Germany and Italy, respectively.

Knowledge recombination along the technology life cycle

This study sheds light on how recombination of different kinds of knowledge changes along the technology life cycle. From a theoretical point of view, the cyclical technology life cycle model is extended to account for the influence of recombination of different kinds of knowledge in the different life cycle phases. This model is empirically tested for the technological life cycle of wind power and photovoltaics in Germany for the period from 1970 until 2006. Patent forward citations are considered as recombinatorial success and inventors’ patenting experience proxy different kinds of knowledge. Negative binomial regressions as well as rolling-window regressions are used to estimate the relevance of different kinds of knowledge along the technology life cycle. Results reveal that different kinds of knowledge matter along the technology life cycle. In the era of ferment, knowledge from domains external to the technology is relevant, but for the dominant design and the era of incremental change, new and specialized knowledge is most important. However, there are technological differences and deviations from the model. Rolling-window regressions reveal nuanced changes in the life cycle phases. The results have several policy and management implications, especially for the timing of whom to fund or hire for inventive activity.

독일 태양광 발전(Photovoltaics) 확대를 위한 발전차액지원제도와 제고요인에 관한 소고

독일 태양광 발전(Photovoltaics) 확대를 위한 발전차액지원제도와 제고요인에 관한 소고

Beyond cost and carbon: The multidimensional co-benefits of low carbon transitions in Europe

The paper explores the myriad potential benefits of four low-carbon transitions beyond those in the environmental or economic domain. Drawn from a rich set of original mixed methods data—across expert interviews, focus groups, and public internet forums—we examine the presumed multidimensional, qualitative co-benefits to nuclear power in France, solar photovoltaics in Germany, electric vehicles in Norway, and smart meters in Great Britain. We catalogue 128 identified prospective co-benefits to these four European low-carbon transitions, 30 for nuclear power, 30 for solar photovoltaic panels, 26 for electric vehicles and 42 for smart meters. Tellingly, 37 of these collective benefits are identified as economic and 14 environmental, but the remaining ones illustrate a broader spectrum of technical benefits (31 in total), social benefits (30 in total) and political benefits (16 in total). After presenting this body of evidence, the paper then discusses these benefits more deeply in terms of complementarity, temporality, scale, actors, and incumbency. We conclude with insights for energy and climate research and policy more broadly.

An evolving risk perspective for policy instrument choice in sustainability transitions

We develop the concept of evolving risk to demonstrate that the optimal policy choice between price and quantity instruments may change over time. Drawing from system innovation, evolutionary concepts and modern financial and transaction cost economics, we analyze dynamic cost and welfare impacts of instrument choice under uncertainty. In early market deployment of niche technologies, economic and system-innovation arguments suggest price instruments can stabilize revenues and decrease market risks for investors. This accelerates deployment without necessarily compromising economic efficiency. Protective policies that work well for niche technologies should, however, be used cautiously during market upscaling and diffusion, due to the changing nature of risks. We use theoretic arguments and a case to demonstrate that a gradual shift towards quantity control may become preferable for welfare maximization under certain circumstances. Solar photovoltaics in Germany serves as illustrative case, where auctions (a form of quantity control) succeeded feed-in tariffs (a price instrument).

The social profitability of photovoltaics in Germany.

While Germany has led the market in photovoltaic (PV) implementation throughout the last decade, there has been increasing criticism of PV support policies due to their high cost. Although declining, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from PV is still above the German wholesale electricity price. However, using LCOE as an evaluation yardstick falls short in at least 2 respects: It neither takes into account integration costs rising with PV penetration (ie, undervaluing its actual cost) nor avoided externalities of replacing conventional for renewable generation (social cost overvaluation). We thus calculate the social profitability of PV in Germany by including not only private costs and benefits but also integration costs to the electricity system and avoided environmental externalities, using the internal rate of return and the profitability index as indicators. Our results show that when these factors are considered, the social profitability of PV in Germany is higher than 10% at the lower bound of the social cost of carbon (150€/tCO2) up to a penetration level of at least 15% and positive up to a penetration level of at least 25%. Results also show the level of private profitability if all externalities were internalized and assert that subsidies are justified to align private and social profitability. The proposed method could be used as a complementary indicator to private profitability by public institutions, development banks, and companies with social responsibility values.

Solar feed-in tariffs in a post-grid parity world: The role of risk, investor diversity and business models

Over the past decade, feed-in tariffs have spurred significant deployment of solar photovoltaics in Germany and other countries. With recent cost trends, several countries are approaching retail grid parity. Some policymakers conclude that now is the time to remove feed-in tariffs, as grid parity creates a self-sustaining market, where economically rational investors will invest even in the absence of government incentives. Recent experience in key European solar markets, however, shows that with the advent of grid parity and the reduction of feed-in tariffs, investment in new solar capacity has decreased rather than increased, making it questionable whether low-carbon energy policy targets will be reached. We conduct a cross-case study analysis of three PV markets – Germany, Italy and Switzerland – to investigate the role of feed-in tariffs for the near- and post-grid parity stages of diffusion, accounting for investor diversity and distinguishing between implications for revenue-based and savings-based business models. We find that recent market trends are strongly driven by increased levels of risk, especially policy risk and exposure to revenue risk. We therefore suggest that relatively frugal but stable policy environments may be conducive to further growth of investment in photovoltaics and minimize cost to society.

Inventor networks in renewable energies: The influence of the policy mix in Germany

Technological change and gains in efficiency of renewable power generation technologies are to a large extent driven by governmental support. Various policy instruments that can broadly be categorized as technology push, demand pull or systemic constitute part of the policy mix for renewable energies. Our goal is to gain insights into the influence of this policy mix on the intensity and organization of inventive activities for wind power and photovoltaics in Germany since the 1980s. We examine the effect of different instruments on the size and structure of co-inventor networks based on patent data. Our results indicate notable differences between the technologies: the network size for wind power is driven by technology push and systemic instruments, while in photovoltaics, demand pull is decisive for network growth. By and large, the instruments complement each other and form a consistent mix of policy instruments. The structure of the networks is driven by demand pull for both technologies. Systemic instruments increase interaction, especially in the wind power network, and are complementary to demand pull in fostering collaboration.

Coordination of Renewable Energy Remuneration Schemes Through Information Exchange

The increasing scale and dynamics of the global market for renewable energy technologies has often resulted in unexpected high deployment volumes in EU Member States. These deployment peaks were particularly strong for solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies in countries using feed-in tariff remuneration mechanisms. In this paper, we develop an analytic model to capture the interactions of national remuneration schemes with the global market. The model covers two countries and one global technology market. We calibrate the model for the impact of coordinated tariff adjustments based on the experience with PV in Germany and the UK. We then use the model to measure the impact of different global module supply functions, national installation price reductions, and specific shocks on deployment effectiveness in terms of reaching national or aggregated target corridors for separate and coordinated feed-in tariff adjustment mechanisms. The relevance of the insights for wind energy technologies is evaluated. Based on the results, we discuss the implications for the coordination of remuneration schemes.

Installing Photovoltaics in Germany: A license to print money?

Using detailed data originating from several hundred households of the German Residential Energy Survey (GRECS), this paper empirically investigates the returns on investment in photovoltaic (PV) installations. We find that these returns were particularly high in the years 2009 to 2011, when large subsidies for solar electricity coincided with plummeting module prices. While our empirical analysis demonstrates that such investments also incur substantial risks, there is evidence that, above all, wealthy households tend to benefit from the solar subsidies, whereas the costs of financing these subsidies are borne by electricity consumers at large, not least poverty-endangered households. The resulting redistribution of financial resources raises the question of whether the burden-sharing of Germany’s transition to an alternative energy system is fair.

Installing Photovoltaics in Germany: A License to Print Money?

Using detailed data originating from several hundred households of the German Residential Energy Survey (GRECS), this paper empirically investigates the returns on investment in home-equipped photovoltaics (PV) installations. We find that these returns were particularly high in the years 2009 to 2011, when large subsidies for solar electricity coincided with plummeting module prices. While our empirical analysis demonstrates that such investments also incur substantial risks, there is evidence that, above all, wealthy households tend to benefit from the solar subsidies, whereas the costs of financing these subsidies are borne by electricity consumers at large, not least poverty-endangered households. The resulting redistribution of financial resources raises the question of whether the burden-sharing of Germany’s transition to an alternative energy system is fair.

The economic viability of battery storage for residential solar photovoltaic systems – A review and a simulation model

Battery storage is generally considered an effective means for reducing the intermittency of electricity generated by solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, currently it remains unclear when and under which conditions battery storage can be profitably operated in residential PV systems without policy support. Based on a review of previous studies that have examined the economics of integrated PV-battery systems, in this paper we devise a simulation model that investigates the economic viability of battery storage for residential PV in Germany under eight different electricity price scenarios from 2013 to 2022. In contrast to previous forward-looking studies, we assume that no premium is paid for solar photovoltaic power and/or self-consumed electricity. Additionally, we run the model with a large number of different PV and storage capacities to determine the economically optimal configuration in terms of system size. We find that already in 2013 investments in storage solutions were economically viable for small PV systems. Given the assumptions of our model, the optimal size of both residential PV systems and battery storage rises significantly in the future. Higher electricity retail prices, lower electricity wholesale prices or limited access to the electricity wholesale market add to the profitability of storage. We conclude that additional policy incentives to foster investments in battery storage for residential PV in Germany will only be necessary in the short run. At the same time, the impending profitability of integrated PV-storage systems is likely to further spur the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation with major implications for the electricity sector.

Projection Bias in Household Investment? The Case of Solar Photovoltaics in Germany

This paper tests for the presence of projection bias in the context of an irreversible household investment decision. Households have to forecast their future flow of utility when making inter-temporal purchase decisions, which might be affected by psychological factors. I study whether short-lived weather shocks have an impact on household investment in solar adoption, where sunshine can be directly linked to financial utility. Focusing on Germany, the largest market for residential solar worldwide, I find that a standard deviation outlier in monthly sunshine hours leads on average to one additional installation. Other weather shocks such as temperature, rain, and snow do not have any significant impact on technology uptake. The findings are in line with the behavioral economic concept of projection bias (Loewenstein, O’Donoghue, and Rabin (2003)).

Retrospective modeling of the merit-order effect on wholesale electricity prices from distributed photovoltaic generation in the Australian National Electricity Market

In electricity markets that use a merit order dispatch system, generation capacity is ranked by the price that it is bid into the market. Demand is then met by dispatching electricity according to this rank, from the lowest to the highest bid. The last capacity dispatched sets the price received by all generation, ensuring the lowest cost provision of electricity. A consequence of this system is that significant deployments of low marginal cost electricity generators, including renewables, can reduce the spot price of electricity. In Australia, this prospect has been recognized in concern expressed by some coal-fired generators that delivering too much renewable generation would reduce wholesale electricity prices. In this analysis we calculate the likely reduction of wholesale prices through this merit order effect on the Australian National Electricity Market. We calculate that for 5GW of capacity, comparable to the present per capita installation of photovoltaics in Germany, the reduction in wholesale prices would have been worth in excess of A$1.8 billion over 2009 and 2010, all other factors being equal. We explore the implications of our findings for feed-in tariff policies, and find that they could deliver savings to consumers, contrary to prevailing criticisms that they are a regressive form of taxation.

The role of policy in the evolution of technological innovation systems for photovoltaic power in Germany and the Netherlands

In this paper, we examine the role of policy in the evolution of technological innovation system and diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels in Germany and the Netherlands. PV power development and diffusion have been actively supported in both countries; however, Germany has a welldeveloped technological innovation system and a successful industry, whereas the Netherlands has not. The focus of this paper is on the dynamic relationship between policy developments and technology innovation systems developments. Within both countries policy has changed over time but the German feed-in law provided an element of continuity which the Dutch policy lacked. The creation of a successful industry for PV in Germany can be attributed to the greater consistency and continuity of the German policies.