Phosphorus Export Research Articles

A methodology to improve the accuracy of Total phosphorous diffuse load estimates from agroforestry watersheds

This study was undertaken to improve the accuracy of Total Phosphorus export coefficient models; an essential need for the water management process. The modeling approach used in this study was supported by the application of four different models to 27 agroforestry watersheds located in the Mediterranean region. The first model definition relies on the correlation between the time of concentration and the Total Phosphorus export coefficient for each watershed. The second model predicts nutrient loads in the watersheds considering export coefficients reported in the literature and watershed land use areas. As an alternative approach, the remaining two models solve a system of equations through the application of a Bayesian optimization algorithm that iteratively modifies the land use export coefficients to minimize the error between the observed and predicted Total Phosphorus export coefficients. The difference between both models relies on the constraints imposed to the variation of the export coefficients. The modeling approach also included watershed clustering and the consideration of a correction factor, computed as absolute differences (observation-prediction). This correction factor encapsulates the widely accepted conclusion that the sediment delivery ratio of a watershed tends to decrease in line with an increase in drainage area, and that a significant amount of the Total Phosphorus transported in rivers is in particulate form and is primarily correlated to suspended solids. The results of the study clearly show that the consideration of Total Phosphorus export coefficients obtained from the literature for watersheds located in the Mediterranean region produce very poor Total Phosphorus diffuse load estimates. When considering the results of all the models, the Percentual bias and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency values varied from −80.2 % to 24.7 % (μ = -52.5 ± 20.2) and −8.8 to −1.8 (μ = -4.3 ± 2.8). However, the modeling approach considered in this study generated significant improvements in terms of the accuracy of the Total Phosphorus export coefficient from different land use classes and, consequently, the overall estimation of Total Phosphorus diffuse loads from agroforestry watersheds. When considering the results of all the models, the Percentual bias and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency values varied from −13.3 % to −5.0 % (μ = -9.0 ± 2.9) and 0.5 to 0.9 (μ = 0.8 ± 0.2), respectively. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the solution proposed has the potential to significantly improve the quantification of Total P diffuse loads at the watershed level, which is an important conclusion given the present and future challenges currently being faced with regard to the water management process.

Quantification of agricultural best management practices impacts on sediment and phosphorous export in a small catchment in southeastern Sweden

Agricultural activities contribute to water pollution through sediments and nutrient export, negatively affecting water quality and aquatic ecosystems. However, implementing best management practices (BMPs) could help control sediments and nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. This study used the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the effectiveness of four BMPs in reducing sediment and phosphorus export in a small agricultural catchment (33 km2) in southeastern Sweden. The SWAT model was first evaluated for its ability to simulate streamflow, sediment load, and total phosphorous load from 2005 to 2020. Then, the calibrated parameters were used to simulate the agricultural BMP scenarios by modifying relevant parameters. The model performed satisfactorily during calibration and validation for streamflow (NSE = 0.80/0.84), sediment load (NSE = 0.67/0.69), and total phosphorous load (NSE = 0.61/0.62), indicating its suitability for this study. The results demonstrate varying effects of BMP implementation on sediment and phosphorus (soluble and total) export, with no significant change in streamflow. Filter strips were highly effective in reducing sediment (−32%), soluble phosphorus (−67%), and total phosphorous (−66%) exports, followed by sedimentation ponds with −35%, −36%, and −50% reductions, respectively. Grassed waterways and no-tillage were less impactful on pollutant reduction, with grassed waterways showing a slight increase (+4%) in soluble phosphorus and no-tillage having a minimal effect on sediment (−1.3%) and total phosphorus (−0.2%) export. These findings contribute to the ongoing efforts to mitigate sediment and nutrient pollution in Swedish agricultural areas, thereby supporting the conservation and restoration of aquatic ecosystems, and enhancing sustainable agricultural practices.

Quantifying nutrient and sediment erosion at riverbank cattle access points using fine-scale geo-spatial data

Unrestricted cattle access to the riparian zone can exacerbate riverbank erosion in grazed grassland catchments. Knowledge gaps include the magnitude of erosion and other environmental pressures at cattle access points. This study aimed to address this by using two high resolution geo-spatial methods; 1) aerial photogrammetry and 2) terrestrial laser scanning to measure cumulative, seasonal, and annual erosion rates at nine unmitigated cattle access points in Northern Ireland. Total, fine sediment and total phosphorus exports were determined through bulk density and deep soil core sampling campaigns of exposed bank faces. Accumulated erosion was estimated using method 1) at 1.0 – 49.5 t and 0.51 – 16.64 kg for total sediment and total phosphorus, respectively. Using method 2) median annual export coefficients of 0.19 – 0.21 t m−1 and 0.065 – 0.087 kg m−1 (normalised to streambank length) were determined for total sediment and total phosphorus transfers respectively and these mostly occurred during the grazing season (median 84% for both sediment and total phosphorus). In terms of livestock pressures, these annual exports equate to 0.34 – 0.40 t LU-1 yr−1 and 0.103 – 0.111 kg LU-1 yr−1 for total sediment and total phosphorus, respectively (1.19–1.89 LU ha−1). The conventional measure of protective fencing is likely to prevent such transfers to rivers. Scaling a nationwide agri-environment scheme over six years which installed 2,493 km of riparian fencing (and assuming from this study that 1.9 % of all riparian field boundaries had cattle access impact), this measure potentially saved 9,047–9,999 t yr−1 and 3,095 – 4,143 kg yr−1 of total sediment and total phosphorus, respectively, from entering water courses.

Decadal Changes in Anthropogenic Inputs and Precipitation Influence Riverine Exports of Carbon, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus, and Alter Ecosystem Level Stoichiometry

AbstractChanges in precipitation and land use influence carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) exports from land to receiving waters. However, how these drivers differentially alter elemental inputs and impact subsequent ecosystem stoichiometry over time remains poorly understood. Here, we quantified long‐term (1979–2020) trends in C, N, and P exports at three sites along the mainstem of a north temperate river in Québec, Canada, that successively drains forested, urban, and more agriculturally impacted land‐use areas. Riverine N and to a lesser degree C exports tended to increase over time, with major inter‐annual variation largely resolved by changes in precipitation. Historical increases in net anthropogenic N inputs on land (NANI) also explained increases in riverine N exports, with about 35% of NANI reaching the river annually. Despite higher Net anthropogenic P inputs, NAPI, over time, P exports tended to decrease at all riverine sites. This decrease in P at the forested site was more gradual, whereas a precipitous drop was observed at the downstream urban site following legislated P removal in municipal wastewater. Changes in historical ecosystem stoichiometry reflected the differential elemental exports due to natural and anthropogenic drivers and ranged from 174: 23: 1 to 547: 76: 1 over the years. Our work shows how C, N, and P have responded to different drivers in the same catchment over the last four decades, and how their differential riverine exports have influenced ecosystem stoichiometry.

Concentration‐Discharge Patterns Reveal Catchment Controls Over the Stoichiometry of Carbon and Nutrient Supply to Boreal Streams

AbstractCarbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) export from catchments is strongly regulated by interactions between hydrological flowpaths and their terrestrial use/storage. While concentration‐discharge (c‐Q) relationships have been widely used to understand this interplay for C, N, and P individually, how flow regulates the relative supply of these resources across spatial and temporal scales is not well documented. Here, we analyze c‐Q relationships from 12 years of data to test how seasonal flow regulates the concentrations of inorganic N (Dissolved inorganic nitrogen [DIN]) and P (Dissolved inorganic phosphorus [DIP]), dissolved organic N (DON) and C (dissolved organic carbon [DOC]) and their respective ratios across 12 streams in a boreal landscape. We observed opposing c‐Q relationships between organic and inorganic solutes. DOC and DON tended toward transport limitation with little year‐to‐year change, whereas ammonium (NH4) and DIP were increasingly source limited over time. These different c‐Q relationships translated into large (up to three‐fold) shifts in resource ratios (e.g., DOC:DIN) in response to changes in flow. Our results also highlight strong influences of catchment structure on c‐Q patterns, regardless of solute, season, and longer‐term directional changes. Here, the organic solute c‐Q responses became less transport limited over time; while inorganic solute responses became less source limited with increasing mire/decreasing forest cover. Overall, differences in timing of catchment exports for C, N, and P, create dynamic variation in solute concentrations in streams with subsequent impacts on resource stoichiometry that is central to aquatic ecological processes.

Climate change impacts on eutrophication in the Po River (Italy): Temperature-mediated reduction in nitrogen export but no effect on phosphorus

Rivers worldwide are under stress from eutrophication and nitrate pollution, but the ecological consequences overlap with climate change, and the resulting interactions may be unexpected and still unexplored. The Po River basin (northern Italy) is one of the most agriculturally productive and densely populated areas in Europe. It remains unclear whether the climate change impacts on the thermal and hydrological regimes are already affecting nutrient dynamics and transport to coastal areas. The present work addresses the long-term trends (1992–2020) of nitrogen and phosphorus export by investigating both the annual magnitude and the seasonal patterns and their relationship with water temperature and discharge trajectories. Despite the constant diffuse and point sources in the basin, a marked decrease (-20%) in nitrogen export, mostly as nitrate, was recorded in the last decade compared to the 1990s, while no significant downward trend was observed for phosphorus. The water temperature of the Po River has warmed, with the most pronounced signals in summer (+0.13°C/year) and autumn (+0.16°C/year), together with the strongest increase in the number of warm days (+70%–80%). An extended seasonal window of warm temperatures and the persistence of low flow periods are likely to create favorable conditions for permanent nitrate removal via denitrification, resulting in a lower delivery of reactive nitrogen to the sea. The present results show that climate change-driven warming may enhance nitrogen processing by increasing respiratory river metabolism, thereby reducing export from spring to early autumn, when the risk of eutrophication in coastal zones is higher.

Out of oxygen: Stratification and loading drove hypoxia during a warm, wet, and productive year in a Great Lakes estuary

Hypolimnetic hypoxia, or low oxygen in bottom waters, impairs ecosystem services of freshwater lakes and estuaries globally. Both hypoxia incidence and intensity are increasing around the world due to eutrophication and climate change. As the hypolimnion becomes hypoxic and ultimately anoxic, sediment-bound legacy phosphorus is released. Water column mixing due to large storm events or fall turnover entrains these nutrients to the surface, causing harmful algal blooms. To assess the dynamics of hypoxia throughout the growing season, we evaluated Muskegon Lake, where hypoxia recurs annually, utilizing high-frequency time-series data from the Muskegon Lake Observatory (MLO) buoy (https://www.gvsu.edu/wri/buoy/), biweekly nutrient sampling, and seasonal respiration experiments during 2021. While water-column stratification set the stage for hypolimnetic hypoxia, frequent wind-mixing events, and episodic intrusions of cold, oxygenated, upwelled Lake Michigan waters intermittently reduced the thickness or intensity of the hypoxic zone. Respiration experiments revealed that riverine and surface organic matter inputs contributed most to hypolimnetic hypoxia in the spring, whereas surface inputs did so during summer, and riverine inputs during fall, indicating seasonally variable sources drive hypoxia. Biweekly measurements indicated increased soluble reactive phosphorus in the hypolimnion during anoxia via internal phosphorus loading from the sediment with the potential for fueling surface blooms with net export of soluble reactive phosphorus and total phosphorus to nearshore Lake Michigan. Our findings on the role of seasonally changing temperature, loading, phytoplankton production, hypolimnetic respiration, and internal phosphorus loading in shaping hypoxia dynamics have relevance to similarly afflicted ecosystems in the Great Lakes Basin.

Environmental potential for crop production and tenure regime influence fertilizer application and soil nutrient mining in soybean and maize crops

CONTEXTDifferences in land tenure regimes are one challenge to implementing soil conservation practices in agricultural systems. It is frequently assumed that tenants are less likely to adopt soil conservation strategies than owners, given a shorter-term engagement with the field. Also, the field's environmental potential (i.e., potential for agricultural production) may influence farmers' investment decisions, since high-potential fields increase the chances of achieving a return on the investment. OBJECTIVEUnderstand the effect of land tenure regimes and environmental potential on fertilization rates and balance of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur in soybean and maize crops in Argentina. METHODSWe applied mixed-effects models on a database of 52,588 fields of soybean and maize farms, covering a total area of 3.8 M ha in Argentina during the period of 2017–2022. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSOverall, the balance of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur was (mean ± SE) −29.11 ± 0.15, −2.58 ± 0.38, and 8.26 ± 0.044 kg ha−1 yr−1, respectively. Despite 8.04 and 0.63 kg ha−1 yr−1 more nitrogen and phosphorus were applied in high-potential compared to low-potential maize fields, nutrient outputs were still higher. Therefore, net nutrient exports of the most productive fields increased by 9.99 and 2.06 kg ha−1 yr−1 for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. In soybean fields, environmental potential had no effect on nutrient application, but the net export of nitrogen and phosphorus was 9.85 and 2.14 kg ha−1 yr−1 higher in high-potential fields compared to low-potential fields. Tenure regime had a weak effect, mainly on phosphorus. On average, owners applied 0.37 kg ha−1 yr−1 more and exported 0.28 kg ha−1 yr−1 less phosphorus than tenants in both crops. Sulfur application and balance were weakly affected by the studied variables, and the positive balance suggests overfertilization under the assumptions of this paper. We conclude that the Argentine farming system depletes some of the main nutrients, regardless of the field's environmental potential or the land tenure system. The effect of the tenure regime is overwhelmed by the impact of environmental potential on farmers' fertilization management, with high-potential fields degrading due to soil mining at a faster pace than low-potential fields, putting future yields at risk. SIGNIFICANCEBy exploring a farming system based on nutrient depletion, our results contribute to the general understanding of tenure regime consequences on soil degradation. Argentinean farmers should consider increasing N and P application and contemplate environmental heterogeneity to avoid nutrient mining and degradation of one of the most productive areas of the world.

Assessing nutrient and sediment load reduction potential of vegetation by utilizing the nutrient tracking tool at the field and watershed scale in a Great Lakes priority watershed

PurposeNutrient and sediment pollution of surface waters remains a critical challenge for improving water quality. This study takes a user-friendly field-scale tool and assesses its ability to model at both the field and watershed scale within the Fox River Watershed (FRW), Wisconsin, USA, along with assessing how targeted vegetation implementation could attenuate nutrient and sediment exports.MethodsTo assess potential load reductions, the nutrient tracking tool (NTT) was used with a scoring system to identify areas where vegetation mitigation could be implemented within three selected FRW sub-watersheds. A corn soybean rotation, an implementation of a 10-m-vegetated buffer, a full forest conversion, and tiling were modeled and assessed. The corn–soybean results were aggregated and compared to watershed level gauge data in two sub-watersheds. Edge-of-field data was compared to modeled results using multiple parameterization schemes.ResultsThe agricultural areas that scored higher and were untiled showed greater potential nutrient and sediment export reduction (up to 80 to 95%) when vegetation mitigation was implemented in the model. Field-scale results aggregated to the watershed scale showed disparities between modeled and measured phosphorus exports but modeled sediment exports fell within observed gauge data ranges. Field-specific parameter adjustments resulted in more accurate modeled results compared to measured edge-of-field export data but needed further refinement.ConclusionTargeted mitigation using a vegetation-based scoring system with the NTT model was shown to be a helpful tool for predicting nutrient and sediment reductions. Using a field-scale model aggregated to the watershed scale presents tradeoffs regarding processes found beyond the edge of field.

Long-term variations in external phosphorus inputs and riverine phosphorus export in a typical arid and semiarid irrigation watershed

Excessive phosphorus (P) along with drained water from farmland in the arid and semiarid watersheds when entering into water bodies brings about serious environmental problems in the aquatic ecosystem. It is critical to explore variations in watershed P balance and the relationship between anthropogenic P input and riverine total phosphorus (TP) export in a typical irrigation watersheds. In this study, long-term anthropogenic P variations in Ulansuhai Nur watershed (UNW), a typical irrigation watershed in Yellow River basin, was investigated using a quantitative Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus Input (NAPI) budget model. The results showed that annual NAPI exhibited a significant upward trend with a multi-year average of 2541.6 kg P km−2 yr−1 in the UNW. Hotspots for watershed NAPI were discovered in Linhe and Hangjin Houqi counties. Chemical P fertilizers and livestock breeding were two dominated sources of NAPI. Annual riverine TP export showed a significantly declined trend with a net decrease of 80.6%. The export ratio of watershed NAPI was 0.6%, lower than those reported for other watersheds worldwide. There was a significant positive linear correlation between NAPI and riverine TP export from 2005 to 2009. However, after 2009, riverine TP export exhibited a decreased trend with increasing watershed NAPI, which was attributed to environmental treatment measures. By reconstructing riverine TP export without the impact of pollution treatment measures, annual average reduction amount of riverine TP export from 2009 to 2019 was estimated to be 237.2 ton, 47.2% and 52.8% of which were attributed to the point and nonpoint sources measures. This study not only widens the application scope of NAPI budget method, but also provides useful information of nutrient management and control in the arid and semiarid irrigation watershed.

An Assessment of Streambank Erosion Rates in Iowa

Streambank erosion is a major contributor to watershed suspended sediments and phosphorus exports in many regions, but in Iowa and other midwestern states, the load contribution from streambanks is not considered by state nutrient reduction strategies. The study’s objectives were to evaluate the annual bank erosion rates measured in Iowa using erosion pins and aerial imagery and assess how recession rates vary across space, time, and stream order. The overall goal was to determine whether there are global similarities to these streambank recession rates that could be generalized and scaled up for regional assessments using data from Iowa-based erosion pin studies and original research on stream migration rates. At the erosion pin sites, the recession rates averaged approximately 11 cm yr−1 in third-order streams and, when combined with stream migration analyses, we observed scaling associated with bank recession rates at longer time scales across a range of stream orders. More bank recession occurs in larger streams and rivers with greater discharge from larger watershed areas and an increase in stream power. Variations in these bank recession rates were observed in Iowa landform regions mainly due to differences in geology and the composition of the streambank sediments. The study’s results provide a temporal and spatial context for evaluating streambank recession in Iowa and the glaciated Midwest.

Modelling the impacts of changing land use and climate on sediment and nutrient retention in Lake Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Natural ecosystems provide many different services such as carbon sequestration, regulation of climate change, biodiversity, and aesthetic value. Ecosystem functions are significantly impacted by both natural and man-made processes, such as sediment and nutrient deposition. The Lake Tana basin faces significant problems with soil depletion, sedimentation, and degradation. Thus, this study is designed to assess the effects of climate and land use change on the export of sediment and nutrients as well as their retention in the basin. This study used different data sources such as satellite data for land use and land cover and watershed preparation, climate data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase five (CMIP5), soil data from Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity (MoWIE), and field data for model calibration. Five different Global Climate Models (GCMs) were employed to produce climate projections using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) for the basin. The cellular automata (CA) and Markov chain has then been employed for future projections of changes in land use. Finally, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoff (InVEST) sediment delivery ratio (SDR) and nutrient delivery ratio (NDR) models have been applied to assess the changes in sediment and nutrient export between the baseline and future time periods. The findings indicated that between 1990 and 2019, there was a change in land use that led to an increase in sediment exports of 60.5% and a decrease in sediment retention of 12.8%. Projecting into the future, the amount of exported and retained sediment increases under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the 2040s by 8.4% and 17.8%, respectively due to the combined effects of climate and land use change. Equally, nitrogen and phosphorus exports rose under land use change scenarios but are projected to decrease under climate and integrated climate and land use change scenarios. Out of the 12 sub-watersheds that were designated, five were found to have a high mean annual rate of sediment and nutrient export and were then ranked in terms of priority level for conservation planning. Hence, this research shows that the integration of spatial data with the InVEST model can be used to aid land use planning and decision-making to combat nutrient and sediment exports and prioritize watersheds.

Modeling multi-year phosphorus dynamics in a bioretention cell: Phosphorus partitioning, accumulation, and export

Phosphorus (P) export from urban areas via stormwater runoff contributes to eutrophication of downstream aquatic ecosystems. Bioretention cells are a Low Impact Development (LID) technology promoted as a green solution to attenuate urban peak flow discharge, as well as the export of excess nutrients and other contaminants. Despite their rapidly growing implementation worldwide, a predictive understanding of the efficiency of bioretention cells in reducing urban P loadings remains limited. Here, we present a reaction-transport model to simulate the fate and transport of P in a bioretention cell facility in the greater Toronto metropolitan area. The model incorporates a representation of the biogeochemical reaction network that controls P cycling within the cell. We used the model as a diagnostic tool to determine the relative importance of processes immobilizing P in the bioretention cell. The model predictions were compared to multi-year observational data on 1) the outflow loads of total P (TP) and soluble reactive P (SRP) during the 2012–2017 period, 2) TP depth profiles collected at 4 time points during the 2012–2019 period, and 3) sequential chemical P extractions performed on core samples from the filter media layer obtained in 2019. Results indicate that exfiltration to underlying native soil was principally responsible for decreasing the surface water discharge from the bioretention cell (63 % runoff reduction). From 2012 to 2017, the cumulative outflow export loads of TP and SRP only accounted for 1 % and 2 % of the corresponding inflow loads, respectively, hence demonstrating the extremely high P reduction efficiency of this bioretention cell. Accumulation in the filter media layer was the predominant mechanism responsible for the reduction in P outflow loading (57 % retention of TP inflow load) followed by plant uptake (21 % TP retention). Of the P retained within the filter media layer, 48 % occurred in stable, 41 % in potentially mobilizable, and 11 % in easily mobilizable forms. There were no signs that the P retention capacity of the bioretention cell was approaching saturation after 7 years of operation. The reactive transport modeling approach developed here can in principle be transferred and adapted to fit other bioretention cell designs and hydrological regimes to estimate P surface loading reductions at a range of temporal scales, from a single precipitation event to long-term (i.e., multi-year) operation.

Influence of agroforestry systems on phosphorus export from small tropical watersheds

Influence of agroforestry systems on phosphorus export from small tropical watersheds

Effectiveness of denitrification bioreactors with woodchips, corn stover, and phosphate-sorbing media for simultaneous removal of drainage water N and P in a corn-soybean system.

Millions of acres of farmland in the midwestern United States (US) are artificially drained, and this contributes to the export of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from agricultural land to surface water. Using a 36-acre tile-drained farm field, effects of P-sorbing media in combination with a denitrifying bioreactor system constructed with woodchips (WC) and corn stover (CS) on reducing nutrient export in drainage water were tested for 3 cropping years (2018-2020). The field was divided into three subfields as replicates. In each subfield, the drainage water was divided and separately channeled into three bioreactors, each of which contains one of the three different substrates: WC, CS, and CS-WC (1:1 v/v mixture of CS and WC), randomly assigned. The outlet of each compartment contained a 2.25L flow-through chamber filled with activated iron (Fe) filings as P-sorbing material. Both WC and CS bioreactors were effective in removing drainage NO3 - with a 77% (WC), 86% (CS), and 89% (CS-WC) reduction in mean NO3 - -N concentration. For the three cropping years, the WC bioreactor reduced the total drainage inorganic N (NO3 - -N+NH4 + -N) load by 72%, but the CS bioreactor increased the total inorganic N load in the drainage water due to the substantial release of NH4 + with the decomposition of CS. The breakdown of CS also increased drainage P. The NH4 + and P release decreased with the decrease in the proportion of CS; thus, not more than 10% of CS is recommended for blending with WC to enhance the performance of a bioreactor. The P-sorbing Fe filing media reduced the P loads in drainage by an average of 19% during the 2-year study.

Exploring the Role of Weather and Forest Management on Nutrient Export in Boreal Forested Catchments Using Spatially Distributed Model

Weather-driven hydrological variability and forest management influence the nutrient export from terrestrial to aquatic systems. We quantified the effect and range of variation in total nitrogen and phosphorus export in Vehka-Kuonanjärvi catchment located in southeastern Finland. A distributed model NutSpaFHy was used with varying weather scenarios (compiled from observed extreme years of dry, wet and wet & mild) and forest management scenarios (including no additional management and intensive clear-cutting of all mature stands in the existing forest structure). Nutrient exports by scenario combinations were compared to modeled baseline export in observed weather. The results showed that the increase in nutrient export by wet & mild weather (over 55%) exceeded the increase caused by the clear-cutting scenario (23 %). Dry weather decreased the exports to tenth of the baseline, which was per hectare 2.22 kg for N, 0.08 kg for P). The results suggest that in future maintaining a good ecological status in aquatic systems can be challenging if extreme wet years with mild winters occur more frequently. Certain catchment characteristics, e.g., deciduous tree percentage, open area percentage and site fertility, influence the export increase induced by the extreme weather. Hotspot analysis enabled identifying areas with currently high nutrient export and areas with high increase induced by the extreme weather. This helps targeting water protection efficiently.

Contrasting Annual and Summer Phosphorus Export Using a Hybrid Bayesian Watershed Model

AbstractNutrient pollution is a widespread environmental problem that degrades water quality worldwide. Addressing this issue calls for characterizing nutrient sources and retention rates, especially in seasons when water quality problems are most severe. Hybrid (statistical‐mechanistic) watershed models have been used to quantify nutrient loading from various source categories. However, these models are generally developed for long‐term average conditions, limiting their ability to assess temporal drivers of nutrient loading. They also have not been calibrated for season‐specific estimates of loading and retention rates. To address these issues, we developed a hybrid watershed model that incorporates interannual variability in land use and precipitation as temporal drivers of phosphorus loading and transport. We calibrate the hybrid watershed model within a Bayesian hierarchical framework on both an annual and summer basis over a multi‐decadal period (1982–2017). For our study area in the North Carolina Piedmont region (USA), we find that urban lands developed before 1980 are the largest contributor of phosphorus (per unit area), especially under dry conditions. Seasonally, summer phosphorus export rates are generally found to be lower than corresponding annual rates (kg/ha/mo), while in‐stream retention is found to be elevated in summer. In addition, we find that precipitation has a substantially larger influence on phosphorus export from agricultural lands than other source types, especially in summer, and that antecedent (May) precipitation significantly influences summer phosphorus export. Overall, our approach provides a data‐driven and probabilistic line of evidence to support watershed phosphorus management across different sources and seasons.

Effectiveness of Nutrient Management for Reducing Phosphorus Losses from Agricultural Areas.

Dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) export from agricultural areas is a leading cause of nutrient pollution in freshwater systems (e.g., the North American Great Lakes). A potential solution to mitigate the excessive release of DRP is the use of nutrient management. To evaluate the effectiveness of nutrient management for phosphorus (P) in the United States, we conducted a review to synthesize P management and DRP export data from peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 to 2022. We identified 15 publications and extracted 113 and 90 observations from plot- and field-scale studies, respectively. At the plot scale, mean DRP concentrations were approximately 60% lower when P application rates were below the maximum recommended rate. In addition to the lower mean value, more extreme DRP export events occurred when the P fertilization rate was greater than the maximum recommended rate. In terms of application method, subsurface placement reduced mean DRP concentrations during rainfall simulations by 88% relative to surface placement (i.e., broadcasting). For fertilizer sources, mean DRP concentrations were similar between inorganic and organic fertilizers. However, at high application rates, organic fertilizers had a greater potential to produce extreme DRP export events. At the field-scale, organic fertilizers applied at high rates had the potential to produce extreme DRP export events. However, field-scale results for the other nutrient management techniques were generally inconclusive due to a limited number of studies and confounding factors. Overall, these results displayed the potential adverse impacts of overfertilization and the surface application of P fertilizers and highlighted the need for further research into the influence of nutrient management on P losses.

Identification of priority conservation areas based on ecosystem services and systematic conservation planning analysis.

In order to reverse the trend of ecological deterioration and resolve the conflict between ecological conservation and economic development, it is necessary to evaluate the trends of ecosystem services (ESs) and unravel the relationship between ESs and environmental drivers and identify the priority areas for ESs. In this research, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to quantify the variation of four important ESs (water purification, water yield, soil conservation, and habitat quality) in the Dongting Lake Basin from 2000 to 2015. During the past 15years, water yield was declined by 3.38% and soil conservation was increased by 1.45%. Water quality purification was deteriorated with the rise in phosphorus export (5.32%) and nitrogen export (4.09%). Meanwhile, habitat quality was decreased by 3.27%. Trade-offs occurred primarily among water yield and other ESs. Social-ecological drivers importance analysis found that water yield was primarily influenced by precipitation and temperature. By contrast, water purification and habitat quality were more affected by the distribution of land use and land cover (LULC). Soil conservation was closely related to precipitation and geographical factor. Based on the distribution of ESs and the intensity of human activities, we delineated priority areas for each ESs using the systematic conservation planning tool (Marxan). LULC shifted most dramatically in water yield reserves (6.49%) with a large amount of lands conversed to cropland (4.4%) and build-up land (0.27%), which further increased the risk of water scarcity, while LULC changed less in other ESs priority areas due to human activities. Our study helps develop conservation strategies within specific area cost-effectively and provides scientific support for future conservation program of ESs formulation and adjustment.

Lake operation optimization of nutrient exports: Application of phosphorus control in the largest subtropical lake in the United States

This paper presents Lake Operation Optimization of Nutrient Exports (LOONE), a Python-based model with three coupled modules: 1) a water balance module to simulate hydrology and operations, 2) a nutrient module to simulate phosphorus dynamics in the water column, and 3) an optimization tool to design optimal reservoir releases. We applied the model to Lake Okeechobee (Florida, USA), a shallow subtropical lake receiving and exporting excessive amounts of nutrients, while providing water supply, recreation, and flood control. We evaluated LOONE under historical operation schedules for model verification, and then designed optimal releases that minimized phosphorus exports into the two main distributaries of Lake Okeechobee. We found that P loads could decrease by 12–33% under optimal operations. The software package could be used to evaluate management decisions to help control water quality issues such as high nutrient exports and harmful algal blooms in Lake Okeechobee and reservoirs worldwide.