Extreme Phenomena Research Articles

A review of the formation conditions and assessment methods of black and odorous water.

Black and odorous water is an extreme pollution phenomenon. This article reviews the formation process, formation conditions, and evaluation methods of black and odorous water. The results indicate that N, P, and TOC are the key nutrients inducing black and odorous water while S, Fe, and Mn are key elements forming blackening and odorizing pollutants. In addition, Cyanobacteria, Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Verrucomicrobia, Planctomycetes, and Actinobacteria participate in the biogeochemistry cycles of key elements and play important roles in the blackening and odorizing process of water. The black and odorous thresholds that need further verification are as follows: 1.0 g/L of organic matrix, 2.0-8.0 mg/L of NH3-N, 0.6-1.2 mg/L of TP, 0.05 mg/L of Fe2+, 0.3 mg/L of Mn2+, 1.2-2.0 mg/L of DO, and -50 to 50 mV of the ORP. In order to propose a universal assessment method, it is suggested that NH3-N, DO, COD, BOD, and TP serve as the assessment indicators, and the levels of pollutions are I (not black odor), II (mild black odor), III (moderate black odor), IV (severe black odor), and inferior IV (extremely black odor).

The Impact of Carbon Emission on Global Warming Based on LSTM Model and PCA

Climate related topic has become a big topic in recent years. Frequent occurrence of extreme phenomenon has made people to are about the climate issue throughout the world, especially about the global warming. This study uses LSTM model to predict the temperature anomaly in the next 100 years and makes PCA to analyze the main contributor to global warming. The temperature anomaly this article used as the dependent variable will stay in a relatively stable stage and the highest anomaly is 1.24℃ while the lowest is 0.25℃. Among carbon dioxide emission, forest fires and volcanic eruption, the main factor that contributes to global warming id CO2. At end of the article, some practical suggestions are put forward to reduce carbon emission in normal life. This article aims to present a basic knowledge of global warming and climate change, and provide people with some measures to implement low carbon.

Determination of Impacts of Climate Change on Temperature and Rainfall Variations in Some Southern Iraqi Governorate Using GIS

The concept of temperature change is closely related to climate change. Global warming is one of its most prominent manifestations, and the effects of this will be significant on the climate. It will lead to an increase in the intensity of the air cycle, the encroachment of climatic regions towards the poles, an increase in the frequency of extreme weather phenomena, a change in the distribution of heat and rain in different cities of the world, and a rise in sea levels and the threat of most coastal areas. The research aims to determine the variation in temperature, the amount of rain, and its distribution system in the (Basra, Thi Qar, and Missan) during the period (1998 – 2020), and diagnosis of changes in temperature, rain amount, and their cause, as well as its distribution system by analyzing the trend of change in the annual averages of temperature and annual rainfall amounts for the same study period. The results of spatial analysis using GIS for monthly temperature average data for the same period indicated that the general trend of temperature distribution in all study stations is high, and the peaks during the months (June, July, August, and September), where we notice a large and clear increase, especially in recent years, if compared with rates in previous years. As for the rain data analysis in Iraq, the study found that it was limited to five months (Nov., Dec., Jan., March, April), and October month, which represents the beginning of the rainy season in most monitoring stations, and the month of March, which represents its end, did not record any amount of rain, and this means that the depressions which Iraq exposed to during these two months are unable to produce heavy amounts of the rain because of their shallowness, from the spatial distribution of the amount of rain in the study area that the rainfall rates are reduced to the highest level and its irregular distribution, and therefore reflected in the decrease in water resources in the areas under study. A large amount of daily precipitation in Iraq is due to the recurrence of three atmospheric depressions the (Mediterranean, combined, and Sudanese) depression. These responsible depressions are distinguished by their differences from one region to another, the short duration of their stay and recurrence, the weather conditions that dominate them, and the pressure patterns accompanying them in the upper atmosphere layers. Or some of these depressions reach dryness or are accompanied by non-rainy clouds. This makes Iraq’s rains few, leading to many repercussions on climate, the environment, humans, and various activities.

Changes in the parameters of extreme temperature events in the western part of the Russian Arctic according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses in 1980–2022

The air temperature in the Arctic zone of Russia is increasing at a rate of 0.71 °C per decade, which is three times faster than the global average. The warming of climate is accompanied by an increase in its extremeness, which leads to an increase in the number of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena. The most significant changes occurred in the statistics of large-scale summer heat waves in European Russia. One of the most important goals in studying current climate changes is to study the frequency of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena, in particular, heat or cold waves. In this paper, we investigate the average daily anomalies relative to the annual variation of air temperature at a height of 2 meters from the surface in the region of the western part of the Russian Arctic (60°–75° N, 30°–85° E), according to ERA5 and MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalyses for the period 1980–2022. Their root-mean-square deviations and the distribution of their average number per year are calculated. We have plotted the fields of average values and the rate of changes in the amplitude, duration and number of anomalous temperature events which exceed two standard deviations in the study region. Areas of increase and decrease in the amplitude, duration and number of extreme events, both with positive and negative temperature anomalies, are displayed. In general, it can be concluded that, on average, the amplitudes of positive extreme air temperature anomalies in the study area slightly increase. The duration of positive extreme anomalies is growing everywhere at a rate of 0.2 days per 10 years. The duration of negative extreme anomalies slightly decreases. The number of events with negative extreme anomalies has been decreasing at a rate of –0.5 to –3 events per year for 10 years, while the number of events with positive extreme anomalies has been increasing from 0.1 to 1 events per year for 10 years.The results obtained significantly expand our knowledge of the spatiotemporal features of the ongoing changes in the extreme climate of the western part of the Russian Arctic, which is of paramount importance for the analysis and forecasting of the development of natural and socio-economic systems in the region under study.

Extreme Value Analysis of Tide Gauge Record at the Port of Busan, South Korea

This article conducts an extreme value analysis (EVA) of hourly tide gauge measurements at Busan, South Korea, from 1960 onwards to understand the influence of typhoon-driven surges and predicted tides that super-elevate ocean still water levels (SWLs) at Busan. The impact of the 2003 super-typhoon “Maemi” dominates the records, super-elevating the SWL above mean sea level (MSL) by 1403 mm, equating to a recurrence interval of 98 years, eclipsing the second highest measured extreme in August 1960, with a return level of around 16 years. The sensitivity testing of the random timing of high tides and typhoon storm surges reveals several near misses in recent history, where water levels attained at the Busan tide gauge could have surpassed the records set during the “Maemi” event. This paper explores the omnipresent increasing risk of continuously increasing sea level coupled with oceanic inundation associated with extreme phenomena. By integrating sea level projections (IPCC AR6), the result of the EVA provides important resources for coastal planning and engineering design purposes at Busan.

Population Exposure to Compound Precipitation–Temperature Extremes in the Past and Future Climate across India

Abstract This study explores the population exposure to an increasing number of hydroclimatic extreme events owing to the warming climate. It is well agreed that the extreme events are increasing in terms of frequency as well as intensity due to climate change and that the exposure to compound extreme events (concurrent occurrence of two or more extreme phenomena) affects population, ecosystems, and a variety of socioeconomic aspects more adversely. Specifically, the compound precipitation–temperature extremes (hot-dry and hot-wet) are considered, and the entire Indian mainland is regarded as the study region that spans over a wide variety of climatic regimes and wide variation of population density. The developed copula-based statistical method evaluates the change in population exposure to the compound extremes across the past (1981–2020) and future (near future: 2021–60 and far future: 2061–2100) due to climate change. The results indicate an increase of more than 10 million person-year exposure from the compound extremes across many regions of the country, considering both near and far future periods. Densely populated regions have experienced more significant changes in hot-wet extremes as compared with the hot-dry extremes in the past, and the same is projected to continue in the future. The increase is as much as sixfold in many parts of the country, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southernmost coastal regions, identified as the future hotspots with the maximum increase in exposure under all the projected warming and population scenarios. The study helps to identify the regions that may need greater attention based on the risks of population exposure to compound extremes in a warmer future. Significance Statement How is the growing population being affected now, and in the future, how will it be affected due to climate change induced compound extreme events? This study explores this societal consequence in terms of population exposure for the most populous country, India. An increase of more than 10 million person-year exposure from the precipitation–temperature compound extremes across many regions is indicated. Densely populated regions are expected to experience enhanced population exposure to hot-wet extremes as compared with the hot-dry extremes. Furthermore, the maximum increase in population exposure to compound extremes is expected across the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southern coastal regions of India. The outcome of the study will be helpful for adopting socioeconomic decisions toward the welfare of society.

Climate Change and Environmental Justice in Constitutional Law

Climate change has become a global issue that has a definite influence in regional and international stage. This extreme phenomenon has an impact on biodiversity. This article examines the extent of Indonesia’s constitutional protection against climate change issues to achieve environmental justice. This study is a qualitative research by exploring legal materials in the form of regulations, books, and scientific journal articles. Based on the research results, the Indonesian Constitution protected the environment before and after the amendment. However, it is still part of or supports the fulfilment of human rights and national development. Therefore, the issue of climate change, which should be a shared interest of the government and citizens, should be given its own status as a legal subject to natural objects in the environment to provide more protection and enforcement from damage, as well as fulfil justice for the environment itself.

Analysis of Carbon Reduction Potential for Residential Green Building Evaluation System

<p>因應氣候變遷導致極端氣候現象加劇，世界各國開始致力於推動節能減碳相關政策，期望藉由減少溫室氣體排放量來達到永續發展目標。而綠建築因相關規劃設計與設施設備之選用，能有效降低建築物所帶來的環境汙染與二氧化碳排放量，被視為是建築產業邁向低碳、淨零排放的重要手段。爰此，在未來提倡減碳之趨勢下，綠建築的發展地位勢必將更為重要，同時也易使得綠建築相關減碳效益將更加被放大檢視。然過往對於綠建築節能減碳相關研究多著墨於技術層面，反而缺乏從根本制度面上分析現行評估指標系統所能帶來的相關減碳潛力與影響。故本研究透過專家問卷調查之方式，採系統性的歸納、分析，加以檢視我國現行綠建築評估指標系統中各評估指標項目的相對減碳潛力關係，同時釐清在現行評估指標系統規範下，住宿類綠建築所可能具備的減碳潛力情形。本研究首先透過文獻回顧，將我國「綠建築評估手冊-住宿類2015版」之評估指標項目相關內容定義為四大指標面向、九大指標群與三十一項評估要項；接著，運用層級分析法專家問卷調查，取得各指標項目在專家學者共識下的減碳潛力相對權重值，了解「日常節能」、「CO2減量」與「綠化量」等指標群及其相關評估要項較具減碳潛力；而除了現行住宿類評估手冊門檻指標外，「地面綠化」、「結構合理化」、「建築輕量化」、「屋頂綠化」以及「直接滲透設計」等評估要項，未來在基於節能減碳觀點下，建議可規範作為優先或必選取之評估指標項目。最後，本研究認為未來在積極邁向淨零排放下，於選用綠建築評估指標項目時，「除了選多還要選對，選對更要精確」，透過鼓勵選用具備較高減碳潛力的評估指標，並精進相關規劃設計內容，才能真正落實並有效促進整體綠建築節能減碳發展。</p> <p> </p><p>In response to the intensification of extreme weather phenomena caused by climate change, countries around the world have begun to promote policies related to energy conservation and carbon reduction, hoping to achieve sustainable development goals by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Green buildings can effectively reduce environmental pollution and carbon dioxide emissions due to related planning and design and selection of facilities and equipment, and are regarded as an important means for the construction industry to move towards low-carbon and net-zero emissions. In the past, the research related to green building energy conservation and carbon reduction had mostly focused on the technical level, but lacked a fundamental institutional analysis of the relevant carbon reduction potential and impact brought by the current evaluation indicator system. In addition, the green building evaluation indicator system is rarely combined with practical cases for demonstration and comparison to clarify the effect of the evaluation indicator system in practice, which easily leads to the overall evaluation indicator system becoming a formality. Therefore, this study investigates the relative carbon reduction potential relationship of each evaluation indicator items in Taiwan’s current green building evaluation indicator system through systematic induction and analysis by means of expert questionnaires; meanwhile, this study also uses analysis results of expert questionnaires to clarify the carbon reduction potential circumstances that residential green buildings may have under the current evaluation indicator system. First, through literature review, this research defines the relevant content of the evaluation indicator items of Taiwan’s "EEWH-RS 2015" as four indicator orientations, nine indicator groups and thirty-one evaluation items. Then, use the AHP expert questionnaire to obtain the relative weight value of the carbon reduction potential of each indicator item under the consensus of experts and scholars, and understand that the indicator group such as "Daily Energy Saving", "CO2 Reduction" and "Greenery " and their related evaluation items are regarded as more carbon reduction potential. In addition to the current threshold indicators of the residential evaluation manual, evaluation items such as "ground greening", "structural rationalization", "building lightweight", "roof greening" and "direct penetration design" are suggested to be standardized as priority or necessary evaluation indicator items in the future based on the viewpoint of energy conservation and carbon reduction. Finally, this study believes that in the future, under the active move towards net zero emissions, when selecting green building evaluation indicators, “in addition to selecting more indicators, you must choose right ones, and must choose more precisely.” In order to implement and promote the overall green building energy conservation and carbon reduction development, it is effective by encouraging the concentrated selection of items with higher carbon reduction potential, and improving the relevant planning and design content for promoting the evaluation scores of each item.</p> <p> </p>

Determination of the influence of the shape of the nose fairing on the ballistic characteristics of a meteorological missile

Climate change currently stands as one of the key threats and challenges to humanity. Researching atmospheric parameters not only enables the analysis of current climatic variations but also facilitates forecasting future changes and predicting extreme abrupt climatic shifts, natural phenomena, and catastrophes. Meteorological rockets play a significant role in this research, bridging the gap between balloons and meteorological satellites. The main purpose of meteorological rockets is to study the upper layers of the atmosphere, collect information for weather forecasting, and similar rockets can also be used for X-ray and ultraviolet astronomy. Utilizing modern numerical simulation methods allows for swift and precise simulations of complex tasks. Designing rocket technology poses a complex challenge due to the intricate system of differential equations describing the aircraft's motion. Consequently, numerical modeling found extensive application in ballistic design. Through contemporary numerical modeling methods, the flight of a meteorological rocket was simulated, determining its key flight parameters. An analysis was conducted on the influence of three types of nose cone shapes on the rocket's energy-ballistic trajectory.

A case study on the use of inter-row cover crops on a new and old vineyard cv. ‘Assyrtiko’ in Santorini Island

In Santorini Island, Greece, the research and revival of cultivation techniques are crucial to the adaptation of viticulture in the current unique and extreme climatic and cultural conditions, including the increasingly extreme climatic phenomena resulting from climate change. This work presents the use of cover crops, in a new planting and productive Assyrtiko vineyard in Santorin Island. Our study is the first reflection of the use of cover crops in the special conditions of the island to mitigate wind and sandblasting damages and reduce high ground temperatures during days with high temperatures. We showed that the use of cover crops could play a significant role in reducing the wind speed and the resulting sandblasting that cause almost every year damage to young and productive vines when they are at critical growth stages.

A Risk-Based Approach for the Analysis of Flood Impact in Villahermosa (Tabasco, Mexico)

Floods in Villahermosa are events that have occurred frequently over the centuries, due to the city’s location at the mouth of two of the most powerful rivers in Mexico. Flooding effects on residents have become increasingly damaging over the years as a consequence of the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena, in addition to poor land-use planning policies. The increase in population and consequent urban expansion are certainly causes of the problem, which are reflected in poor urban planning policy and in an almost absent perception of risk. In this work, we present a methodology for the construction of flood risk maps based on a hydraulic study, analysis of social vulnerability indexes, calculation of severity indexes and construction of hazard maps. The results of the hydraulic simulations show that relatively frequent rainfall causes floods of the order of 2 m, in agreement with annual observations conducted in Villahermosa. More extreme rainfall can lead to flooding greater than 4 m in marginalized areas of the city. The areas at greatest risk are sections close to the rivers that cross the city, and the estimated economic damage is greater than USD 14 million. Risk maps presented here constitute the first effort of an integrated study to couple flood analysis with the calculation of economic damage in the city of Villahermosa, and provide important tools to conscientize populations in their perception of risk, but also create the basis for a conscious urbanization policy.

Natural Disasters are Not All Natural

For a half century, the military has been developing technologies to turn climate and extreme environmental phenomena into weapons.
 This study is a literature review, which was conducted with the following objectives: 1/ to expose the known powerful military technologies of climate and environmental modification; 2/ to emphasize that many extreme environmental events observed in recent years coincide with the effects that these military technologies are able to generate; 3/ to analyze the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the origins of the increase in natural disasters.
 The literature used comes from official sources: peer-reviewed scientific articles (except one); patents; intergovernmental organizations; military documents; policy documents; university documents; national newspapers; news agencies; writings by respected scientists in their fields.
 Results of the literature review reveal that HAARP (High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program), the most powerful ionospheric heater in operation, is able to influence climate. High-power electromagnetic pulses in the earth's crust, produced by a mobile magneto-hydrodynamic generator, is a technique developed since the 1970s to trigger earthquakes. Directed energy weapons, a real technology, can ignite destructive fires at range. For several years, official documents report effects on health and the environment similar in all aspects to those that would be detected if solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection, a climate-altering technique, was used. Due to numerous biases and a lack of objectivity, the IPCC's arguments on the causes of the growth in extreme environmental phenomena (heat and cold waves, storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods, wildfires, air pollution, etc.) are flawed. The solar hypothesis isn't appropriate either, given its low activity for several years.
 In conclusion, the use of military climatic and environmental modification technologies appears to be the most relevant explanation to understand the increase in natural disasters over the last 20 years.

Schwarzschild Black Holes in Extended Spacetime with Two Time Dimensions

Black holes are one of the most extreme phenomena in the Universe, bridging the gap between the realms of general relativity and quantum physics. Any matter that crosses the event horizon moves towards the core of the black hole, creating a singularity with infinite mass density—a phenomenon that cannot be comprehended within present theories of relativity and quantum physics. In this study, we undertake an investigation of non-rotating, non-charged Schwarzschild black holes in an extended spacetime framework with two time dimensions. To accomplish this, we extend Einstein’s field equations by one more temporal dimension. We solve the corresponding equations for a spherical central mass, which leads to an Abel-type equation for the 5D Schwarzschild metric. By exploring distinct solution classes, we present an approximate solution for the 5D metric. Our proposed solution maintains consistency with Schwarzschild’s 4D solution. Finally, we address the central black hole singularity and demonstrate a potential breakthrough, as our solution effectively avoids the singularity quandary, providing valuable insight into the fundamental properties of black holes in this augmented framework.

SUBSAMPLING INFERENCE FOR NONPARAMETRIC EXTREMAL CONDITIONAL QUANTILES

This paper proposes a subsampling inference method for extreme conditional quantiles based on a self-normalized version of a local estimator for conditional quantiles, such as the local linear quantile regression estimator. The proposed method circumvents difficulty of estimating nuisance parameters in the limiting distribution of the local estimator. A simulation study and empirical example illustrate usefulness of our subsampling inference to investigate extremal phenomena.

A Spatiotemporal Fusion Model of Land Surface Temperature Based on Pixel Long Time-Series Regression: Expanding Inputs for Efficient Generation of Robust Fused Results

Spatiotemporal fusion technology effectively improves the spatial and temporal resolution of remote sensing data by fusing data from different sources. Based on the strong time-series correlation of pixels at different scales (average Pearson correlation coefficients > 0.95), a new long time-series spatiotemporal fusion model (LOTSFM) is proposed for land surface temperature data. The model is distinguished by the following attributes: it employs an extended input framework to sidestep selection biases and enhance result stability while also integrating Julian Day for estimating sensor difference term variations at each pixel location. From 2013 to 2022, 79 pairs of Landsat8/9 and MODIS images were collected as extended inputs. Multiple rounds of cross-validation were conducted in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou with an all-round performance assessment (APA), and the average root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 1.60 °C, 2.16 °C and 1.71 °C, respectively, which proved the regional versatility of LOTSFM. The validity of the sensor difference estimation based on Julian days was verified, and the RMSE accuracy significantly improved (p < 0.05). The accuracy and time consumption of five different fusion models were compared, which proved that LOTSFM has stable accuracy performance and a fast fusion process. Therefore, LOTSFM can provide higher spatiotemporal resolution (30 m) land surface temperature research data for the evolution of urban thermal environments and has great application potential in monitoring anthropogenic heat pollution and extreme thermal phenomena.

Awareness and practices regarding climate change and its effects on health, in an urban community: a cross sectional study

Background: Aim was to assess the level of awareness and practices related to climate change and its effects on health among urban population in metropolitan city. To recommend awareness programs regarding climate change and its health hazards for urban population based on results. Methods: Community based cross sectional study was conducted among 180 adults from January 2022 to March 2022. The data was entered in MS Excel and was analyzed by using SPSS-16 software. Results: The awareness about climate change was 63%. 76% of the respondents did not agree that climate change is related to extreme weather phenomenon. All the participants believed that climate change affects health, but none of them were aware that it is causing increased incidence of cancer. 73% of the participants always adopted climate friendly alternatives to using own motor vehicles. None of the participants practiced garbage segregation. Only 19% always used climate friendly alternatives to plastic bags. 74% respondents were unable to give concrete solutions to control climate change. 14% participants suggested planting more trees, 10% called for control of industrialization and population explosion. 66% obtained their information from newspapers. None of them viewed scientific journals. There was no significant association between educational status and awareness of climate change. Conclusions: The population is moderately aware of climate change. They are not well aware of its long-term impacts on health. There is an urgent need for them to be well informed with verified sources of information. Appropriate campaigns must be initiated.

Climate change as challenges and prospects for architecture development

While the causes of climate changes remain poorly understood, their nature is undeniable. The shift in climate zone boundaries is accompanied by a rapid increase in the number and scale of extreme weather events, temperature and humidity variations. For many regions of Eurasia, climatic changes are manifested in the onset of desert and semi-desert (arid) climate zones. Extreme weather phenomena have a particularly threatening impact on urban life. For a variety of reasons, the urban environment is less resilient to weather disasters. The ways of increasing the resilience of urban environment, which are offered by the architectural mainstream, look insufficiently effective. The article substantiates the concept of using traditional and vernacular architectural and construction technologies preserved in regions with arid climate (Middle East, North Africa). Examples of successful application of traditional methods of house-building in combination with elements of the latest technologies are given.

Health Smart City towards improving Public Health and Citizen Engagement

Abstract Climate change is modifying weather patterns, producing far-reaching effects on the environment, the economy and society as a whole, endangering global livelihoods, health, food and energy security, and water resources. Europe will not escape its effects, aggravating risks and threats to public health (PH). Today cities are leading the effort to tackle climate change. Cities are embracing digitalization and establishing smart cities (SC). SC should address people mobility, but also the impact of extreme weather phenomena. The degradation of the environment will foreseeably create security and health crisis that could benefit with digital technologies. The development of urban policies should be guided by evidence-based PH practices. The inclusion of PH into the pillars of the SC will contribute toward mitigating PH crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Design Science Research Methodology was used to elicit a Smart Public Health City (SPHEC) framework. A set of PH and SC experts participated in the process, using diabetes as a case study. The European Green Deal served as a blueprint toward a healthier and more sustainable city. The SPHEC framework was defined by elucidating the PH functions within a SC, with the identification of a set of digital PH services that are required to support the SPHEC framework. This allows to assess the benefits obtained with the digital PH services, and provides evidence for guiding decision-making. The role of digital PH services emerges from the analysis of the framework, through the development of proper digital PH services, strengthening capacity and resilience in future climate emergencies, and motivating policy makers to endorse this challenge. Climate change is a serious threat with impact in PH and cities need to be prepared to tackle it. The use of the SPHEC framework enable to understand the role of both digitalization and the green deal in supporting public policies to tackle chronic diseases like diabetes.

Trend analysis of the current epidemic situation and analysis of factors underlying local uneven spread of covid cases

This research has been carried out by analyzing the specific processes of the local epidemic dynamics of COVID by comparing the qualitative differences in fluctuations in 2020 and 2023. Methods of nonlinear dynamics of the development of epidemic processes in a rapidly changing situation were used to identify and qualify trends and unique situations that sometimes changed extremely fast. A distinctive feature of the modern pandemic is a rather sharp change in local trends: the effect of the fading of the primary outbreak of the disease and the sudden sharp onset of a new epidemic wave after a long trend of decreasing daily infections. Minimization of the exposure to viral infections did not prevent spreading the virus but created the illusion of success. The existing experience in generating forecasts of epidemic outbreaks based on models of past epidemic processes could not help when faced with a new evolving virus. The previously obtained understanding of the development and completion of epidemic processes of influenza virus strains more likely hindered the prediction of the scenario for the completion of the spread of a new infection, which is also associated with the eventual nature of the process and a variety of dynamic situations. A victory over COVID in the phase of the minimum after the wave, which was announced by many countries, turned out to be premature. New Zealand and Japan, which opted for a strict lockdown strategy in 2020, had a surge of COVID cases in early 2023 because new strains came into circulation. Outbreaks of respiratory diseases known as the Spanish flu and swine flu pandemics, data from which were used by many countries to make predictions, had run their course naturally in two or three waves of illness. At the beginning of 2023, against the backdrop of a global positive trend, some countries have reported a record rise in both mortality and daily morbidity due to the emergence of locally circulating “alarm” strains. A current stage on isolation of stable regional strains substantiates the classification of a series of differentiated properties of the dynamics of regional epidemic situations. Among the observed epidemic effects, extreme phenomena in the form of instantaneous bifurcation destruction of established regimes such as a sharp transition from long-term damped oscillations to a new exponential outbreak in some infections are separately highlighted. The selected options for the development of epidemic transient oscillatory processes are separately introduced in equation forms with delay for local epidemic trends. Equations are proposed to describe three variants of development of the observed stages of local epidemics. The task of constructing a generalized predictive model of a pandemic to describe interrelated regional processes at this stage seems insoluble.

Extreme Weather Events and Scientific Research

The catastrophic flood by which a huge area of Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy) was affected last May is the most recent out of a long queue of extreme weather events involving the Italian territory throughout the last 13 years. When dealing with extreme weather phenomena, representing nowadays a "minimum common denominator" worldwide, global warming should be kept into a special account, given that the highest mean temperatures on Earth in the last 140 years have been recorded between 2015 and 2022. This implies that consistent financial investments are needed to adequately cope with extreme weather events in Italy as well as in many other countries, thereby adopting an ad hoc "mind and paradigm change" and through a multidisciplinary, basic and applied, "One Health"-inspired research effort. To this aim, we should firmly keep in mind that the money sums invested in "prevention" are exceedingly lower than those spent for the "therapy" of natural disasters.