Climate Change Phenomenon Research Articles

Analysis of Erosion and Sedimentation Rates on the Service Life of Telaga Lebur Dam

Dam is a civil construction structure in hydrology. The concept of a dam essentially provides a solution by serving as a water reserve, meaning that during the rainy season, water is collected in the dam reservoir, and during the dry season, the stored water can be used as needed. Dams are highly effective in addressing water scarcity issues, both for raw water supply and irrigation purposes. The purpose of building dams is to create a water supply system to supply water for village residents and for irrigation needs. Water availability in dry climate regions is generally limited. Climate change phenomena exacerbate water scarcity issues. As a precaution and mitigation measure against water scarcity, the Indonesian government is actively constructing dams across various provinces. Particularly in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), a dry climate province facing challenges in water supply for households and irrigation, dam construction is essential. The level of total erosion hazard rate in the Telaga Lebur Dam Catchment Area is 5463.94 Ton/Ha/Year. 67.78% of the area of the Telaga Lebur Dam Catchment Area (11.23 km²) experiences erosion at a rate of 3703.5 Ton/Ha/Year, classified as very light erosion. 11.58% of the area of the Telaga Lebur Dam Catchment Area (25.90 km²) experiences erosion at a rate of 632.7 Ton/Ha/Year, classified as light erosion. 9.20% of the area of the Telaga Lebur Dam Catchment Area (20.58 km²) experiences erosion at a rate of 502.7 Ton/Ha/Year, classified as moderate erosion. 3.66% of the area of the Telaga Lebur Dam Catchment Area (8.19 km²) experiences erosion at a rate of 200 Ton/Ha/Year, classified as heavy erosion. 7.78% of the area of the Telaga Lebur Dam Catchment Area (17.41 km²) experiences erosion at a rate of 425.1 Ton/Ha/Year, classified as very heavy erosion. The total sediment yield in Telaga Lebur Dam is 16.619 m³/year. The reservoir's useful lifespan based on the analysis results is 11.44 years.

Impacto del cambio climático en la producción de café en Veracruz bajo un enfoque Ricardiano

The phenomenon of climate change has generated significant adverse consequences on coffee productivity and the income of producers around the world. The present study aims to evaluate the potential repercussions of climate change on coffee production in the Las Montañas region, Veracruz. To carry out this analysis, socioeconomic and environmental data were collected during the years 2022 and 2023, through a survey applied to a sample of 91 production units specialized in coffee cultivation. These data were subjected to ordinary least squares analysis, using the Ricardian approach. The results obtained indicate that the climate change will have a significant impact on the value of the land and that these effects will be differentiated between the different strata of producers, particularly affecting the smaller scale ones. The heterogeneity in climate sensitivity highlights the importance of considering specific strategies for different types of producers in order to reduce their dependence on coffee cultivation and reduce their vulnerability to the increasingly evident impacts of climate change.

Analyzing Spatial–Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Mechanisms of Landscape Changes in the Context of Comprehensive Urban Expansion Using Remote Sensing

The phenomena of global climate change and comprehensive urban expansion have precipitated significant and unprecedented transformations in landscape patterns. To enhance the assessment of these spatio−temporal changes and their driving forces at a regional level, we developed a comprehensive landscape index (CLI) to quantify these patterns and conducted a detailed analysis of the spatio−temporal variations in Minnesota over the last two decades. Our analysis of the CLI was conducted by examining both its quantitative relationships and spatial distribution patterns. The findings indicate a consistent increase in Minnesota’s CLI over this period, marked by an escalation in landscape fragmentation and diversity, alongside a decline in landscape connectivity. Temporally, the CLI experienced a notable shift in 2010. Spatially, the clustering characteristics of landscape patterns have largely remained stable. Our analysis reveals that the CLI is most sensitive to total population (POP) and gross domestic product (GDP) factors, underscoring the significant impact of human activity on landscape patterns. Notably, the explanatory capacity of interactions between factors is substantially greater than that of individual factors, with the GDP and vegetation structure (VS) interaction demonstrating the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of landscape patterns. This highlights the critical role of the interplay between human socio−economic activity and vegetation coverage in shaping landscape configurations.

Transition to green mobility: a twin investigation behind the purchase reasons of electric vehicles in the Indian market

Purpose The study aims to fulfil two objectives, namely, to explore what dimensions comes into play in the current consumer EV purchase behaviour based on relevant literature identified in the past and to find out whether there are other reasons that are peculiar to the Indian automobile market which influenced consumers to adopt this eco-friendly technology. Design/methodology/approach Mixed method approach for collecting the primary data was used. The study was conducted in five cities across India, through a questionnaire administered to 266 existing EV owners using judgemental sampling, that included dimensions as to what made them purchase EVs (any variant whether hybrid or battery) and encouraged their green behaviour. Moreover, the survey also took care of gathering other motivational constructs that may have played a significant role in the Indian EV market. To take care of this, use of single open-ended question was done. Statistical techniques like exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) version 4.0 were performed to gain meaningful insights from this investigation. Findings Based on our analysis, EV purchase behaviour in the Indian market could be explained by six configurational paths identified in conceptual framework of this study. The data analysed revealed long-term operational benefits or relative advantages, trialability or prior driving experience and positive attitude towards EVs playing an important role towards EV purchase decision followed by environmental concern, social norms and personal values of Indian consumers. Besides, several other factors were identified in open comments like favourable government policies, brand consciousness, compatibility and functional benefits in terms of comfortable and noiseless driving which tend to drive the decision of Indian consumers towards buying EVs. The identification of these motivations can help policymakers in targeting the customer market accordingly. Research limitations/implications Although the study is restricted by its scope of sampling criteria, yet is distinct in its methodological approach and thereby adds value to existing literature on marketing and diffusion of EVs. The study explores the untapped gap in the current literature by helping identify reasons on the basis of which consumers made their choices of different EVs. Instead of analysing the potential antecedents of EV uptake, the study brings to light the actual reasons of EV purchase behaviour in the context of an emerging economy like India. That is to say, the horizon of EV motivations spans across technological, individual and regulatory attributes in the Indian automobile market. Practical implications This study is relevant and fulfils the underlying gap in the existing literature related to actual motivations that consumers look for before buying a high involvement product such as EVs. The results can be beneficial for marketers to design effective marketing strategies from the perspective of consumers. Promotional strategies addressing ease of using EVs and how battery technology is better than before needs to be clearly communicated by the marketers. Consumer education is necessary, in this regard, to make people aware of the rising air pollution levels. They have to be made understood the real advantages of owning EVs and how these non-conventional vehicles are far better when compared to traditional cars. In a nutshell, the study underscored potential determinants or reasons that made Indian consumers to go for EVs, based on statistically significant evidences which can be crucial for stakeholders operating in the Indian EV industry. Social implications The study has important implications for members of the community. By sacrificing their egoistic tendencies or individual preferences for energy intensive products such as ICE based vehicles, people can imbibe altruistic orientation and can contribute to the collective benefit of all by shifting towards energy rich vehicles powered by electricity. This is necessary to achieve the broader goals of sustainable development and to curtail the rising climate change phenomenon. Originality/value The study applied both quantitative (deductive) and qualitative (inductive) approach to study into the reasons for consumers’ purchase motivations towards electric cars. Taking a distinct methodological approach, the study enhances the knowledge on EVs by asking consumers to comment in their own words as to why they purchased EVs. This was necessary so as to better explore the needs of the Indian automobile market and which factors govern the purchase of EVs in domestic market. Past literature majorly focused on purchase intention towards EVs but this study in unexampled and analysed the purchase behaviour towards EVs. It should be noted that our investigation reveals the complexity of EV purchase reasons than those identified in past literature and it adds to the current pool of literature on EVs by explaining factors with unrivalled illustrative power.

Modeling Climate Change Issues in Indonesia Based on Media Headlines

Climate change has become a global issue affecting all countries in the last decades. This phenomenon poses a concern to Indonesia as it is one of the climate change’s epicenters. Various studies have shown that climate change can harm multiple community activities, such as unstable agricultural production, decreased people’s health, and global warming. This study tried to model and analyze climate change topics discussed in the media. Finding hidden topics from texts can provide clues and information regarding public conversation surrounding climate change, such as public thoughts, perceptions, and readiness to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. In order to identify hidden subjects from the corpus, this work modeled climate change issues in Indonesia using the latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) algorithm to analyze texts from Indonesian media headlines. As many as 7,000 headline data from five online media were collected from 2017 to 2021 using web scraping techniques. The proposed approach produced eight topics related to climate change, which were determined by the highest coherence value of 0.560. Those topics were renewable energy, carbon emissions, environmental management, development economics, international cooperation, policy/regulation, rehabilitation, and disaster. Based on the results, the model could sufficiently describe the theme of discussion in society and photograph public thoughts and the government’s readiness in the form of policies and regulations in dealing with the climate change phenomenon.

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF POST-COMBUSTION CO 2 CAPTURE PROCESS FOR 6.4 MWE BAGASSE FUELED POWER PLANT

The emission of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, contributes to the phenomenon of climate change; the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions are fossil fuel power plants. Post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) technology, which is based on solvents, is currently the most advanced technology for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. The Post-combustion Process, which uses conventional solvents, has a number of disadvantages, including high energy consumption for regeneration, solvent losses, corrosion of equipment, thermal instability, and environmental impact. Ionic liquids (ILs) and IL-based solvents have produced a novel method of CO 2 capture that is highly efficient, economical, and environmentally friendly. A rate-based steady-state model of the PCC process using the ionic liquid 1-hexyl-3-methylimidazolium glycine ([Hmim] [Gly]) was investigated using Aspen Plus ®. In Aspen Plus ® Electrolyte NRTL method and RK equation of state are used to compute liquid and vapor properties. From the process analysis carried out, it was found that the height and diameter of the absorber packing, the liquid-to-gas ratio and the solvent and flue gas temperatures have a positive effect on the CO 2 capture efficiency. The result showed a maximum CO 2 capture efficiency of 92% at a packed height of 12m and diameter of 0.9m. The best capture efficiency of 98.82% was achieved at an L/G ratio of 4.0.the process simulation study examined five key parameters for ([Hmim] [Gly]) solvent which may reduce the energy and cost required for CO 2 capture. The results show that aqueous ([Hmim] [Gly]) is a promising absorbent for CO 2 capture. Offering a pathway towards more sustainable and efficient carbon capture technologies. This study contributes to the advancement of carbon capture technologies and underscores their significance in mitigating climate change impacts.

The Climate Change Burden on Immune Health: Are Persons Living with HIV More at Risk?

Climate change poses one of the most significant modern threats to overall human health,especially for vulnerable populations including persons living with HIV (PLWH). In this perspective, we specifically explore the concept of immune resilience in human health and how climate change phenomena - including extreme weather events, food insecurity, pollution, and emerging diseases - may exacerbate immune dysfunction and comorbidities faced by PLWH and hinder access to HIV treatment and prevention services. Multidisciplinary, collaborative efforts are urgently needed to quantify these impacts, develop mitigation strategies, and strengthen policies and funding to bolster immune resilience for PLWH in the face of accelerating climate change.

Empirical assessment of fuel-wood induced carbon footprint in Udu Local Government Area of Delta State, Nigeria

Most studies of carbon footprint (CFP) in relation to climate change focus on the generation of greenhouse gases (GHG) by human activities such as electricity, industrialization and transportation in urban areas with little attention on rural areas. Against this background, this study aims to identify sources of Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission, and estimate the amount of CFP generated through fuel-wood consumption in Udu LGA of Delta State, Nigeria. Data for the study were obtained from a sample of 200 households in four (4) rural settlements chosen randomly from 32 villages. Mixed survey technique which involved questionnaires, field observations and measurement were employed to collect data for the study. Data obtained were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson Correlation Analysis and calculation of CFP. The study reveals that the major source of CO2 emission was fuel wood (82.0%), which is used for various domestic and production activities with an average of 39.58kg consumed by each sampled household; thus, generating between 7.24314 MT daily. The amount of CFP also varies directly with the sizes of the sampled households. The study recommends that alternative sources of clean energy should be developed and utilized for sustainable development of the environment and mitigation of climate change phenomenon.

THE CARBON FOOTPRINT AND ITS IMPACT ON SUSTAINABLE ACCOUNTING AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF THE OPINIONS OF A SAMPLE OF EMPLOYEES AT AL-JOUD COMPANY

Energy is the backbone of modern life and the lifeline of many sectors. In contrast, it is the main cause of the phenomenon of climate change. The magnitude of this problem, as it is considered one of the global environmental problems that have become a concern for all of humanity, has prompted people to search for ways to reduce these emissions and then protect the environment and achieve accountability. Sustainable, which can be measured through a set of indicators, including the environmental footprint, which was used initially, and then the carbon footprint, which relates to carbon emissions only. This is what we will try to highlight through this research paper, by trying to understand the concept of the carbon footprint and its impact on sustainable accounting.

Climate change impact assessment of various wastewater treatment facilities: A case study in Bandung City, Indonesia

Untreated wastewater discharge poses notable environmental and public health problems, among others the production of CH4, CO2, and N2O gas emissions contributing to climate change phenomenon. The implementation of wastewater treatment facilities can minimize the GHG emissions resulting from the effluent. However, different technologies and systems perform different results. Using the Life Cycle Assessment method of analysis, this study took Bandung City as a case study and selected the seven most common wastewater treatment facilities found in the city. The results showed that individual hybrid systems with the combination of the conventional septic tank, conveyance by septage truck, and sludge treatment in the Septage Treatment Plant (HS1) and individual on-site system with the conventional septic tank (OFS1) produced substantial global warming impact, resulting in 0.78 and 0.71 kg CO2 eq respectively per 1 m3 treated wastewater. This amount was sixfold that of communal on-site systems with biofilter tanks (OFS2) and 2-3 times larger than other remaining systems. On the other side, the system that produced the lowest amount of GHG emissions performed by OFS2 (0.11 kg CO2 eq).

Challenges and Prospects of the Legal Frameworks for Combatting Climate Change in Nigeria

This paper examined the phenomenon of climate change through a series of legal frameworks to mitigate the effects. Nigeria, being a party to many global conventions against climate change has many domestic policies towards reacting to the phenomenon of climate change. Some of these legal expositions include the Climate Change Act 2021, The National Environmental Standard and Relations Enforcement Agency Act,2007, the National Climate Change Policy, International Measures in Combatting Climate Change etc. However, the implementation of the aforementioned policies has been a great challenge to the Nigerian government and stakeholders amounting to the present devastating effect of the phenomenon in the lives and livelihoods of the people across the world especially the third world countries and Nigeria to be specific. Some of the climate change events manifest in the forms of drought, erosion, changeable rainfall, degradation of land, dirty air etc. giving rise to loss of biodiversity, and intense flooding among others. This study relied on secondary data from newspapers, published research papers, policy documents on climate change and other unpublished literature in reaction to the subject matter. Some of these challenges include ineffective enforcement and implementation of existing legislation, and non-domestication of international climate change treaties amongst others. In light of the existing challenges, the study hopes to motivate Nigerian lawmakers, policymakers and relevant stakeholders towards more proactive legislation in combating climate issues in Nigeria. The study recommended that to enhance access to justice, climate change legislation should adopt a liberal approach to locus standi requirements, and review and revise existing legislations and policies that are relevant to climate change regulation such as environmental laws, energy laws, taxation laws, etc.

Impact of Climate Change on Marine Coral Reef Communities

In recent years, the phenomenon of climate change has intensified globally, which includes but is not limited to, global warming, extreme weather events, and changes in climate patterns. This has raised concerns among environmental organizations about the future of the global ecosystem. This paper focuses on the effects of climate change on marine coral reef communities and based on experimental data, literature information, and existing datasets to develop mathematical models to analyze the effects of global warming, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and ocean storms on coral bleaching, reef calcification, and other issues. The scientists documented the changes in coral reef status through regular monitoring and conducted laboratory studies to simulate the growth, bleaching, and survival of coral reefs under different climatic conditions, such as changes in water temperature and Pondus Hydrogenii (PH). Satellite imagery is used to understand the global distribution of coral reefs, their coverage, and changes in biodiversity.

The interplay between climate change and ageing: A systematic review of health indicators.

Climate change and rapid population ageing pose challenges for communities and public policies. This systematic review aims to gather data from studies that present health indicators establishing the connection between climate change and the physical and mental health of the older population (≥ 65 years), who experience a heightened vulnerability to the impacts of climate change when compared to other age cohorts. This review was conducted according to the PICO strategy and following Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines. Three databases (PubMed, Scopus and Greenfile) were searched for articles from 2015 to 2022. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria,nineteen studies were included. The findings indicated that various climate change phenomena are associated with an elevated risk of mortality and morbidity outcomes in older adults. These included cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, and mental diseases, along with physical injuries. Notably, the impact of climate change was influenced by gender, socioeconomic status, education level, and age-vulnerability factors. Climate change directly affected the health of older adults through ambient temperature variability, extreme and abnormal temperatures, strong winds, sea temperature variability, extreme El Niño-southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and droughts, and indirectly by air pollution resulting from wildfires. This review presents further evidence confirming that climate change significantly impacts the health and well-being of older adults. It highlights the urgency for implementing effective strategies to facilitate adaptation and mitigation, enhancing the overall quality of life for all individuals.

Effects of Short-Term Nitrogen Additions on Biomass and Soil Phytochemical Cycling in Alpine Grasslands of Tianshan, China.

The nitrogen deposition process, as an important phenomenon of global climate change and an important link in the nitrogen cycle, has had serious and far-reaching impacts on grassland ecosystems. This study aimed to investigate the survival adaptation strategies of plants of different functional groups under nitrogen deposition, and the study identified the following outcomes of differences in biomass changes by conducting in situ simulated nitrogen deposition experiments while integrating plant nutrient contents and soil physicochemical properties: (1) nitrogen addition enhanced the aboveground biomass of grassland communities, in which Poaceae were significantly affected by nitrogen addition. Additionally, nitrogen addition significantly influenced plant total nitrogen and total phosphorus; (2) nitrogen addition improved the plant growth environment, alleviated plant nitrogen limitation, and promoted plant phosphorus uptake; and (3) there was variability in the biomass responses of different functional groups to nitrogen addition. The level of nitrogen addition was the primary factor affecting differences in biomass changes, while nitrogen addition frequency was an important factor affecting changes in plant community structure.

Regulation of body temperature and blood pressure in women: Mechanisms and implications for heat illness risk.

Increasing global temperatures due to ongoing climate change phenomena have resulted in increased risk of exertional heat illness in otherwise healthy, young individuals who work or play in the heat. With increasing participation of women in athletic, military and industrial activities that involve exertion in the heat, there is a growing need to study female physiology in this context. Mechanisms controlling blood pressure and body temperature have substantial overlap in humans, largely due to autonomic mechanisms which contribute to both. Similarly, illnesses that result from excessive heat exposure can often be traced back to imbalances in one or more of these autonomic mechanisms. In recent years, there has been increased recognition of the importance of sex as a biological variable for basic and applied research in these areas. The goal of this paper is to present an update on the integrative physiology and pathophysiology of responses to heat stress in women (thermoregulation and blood pressure regulation). In this context, it is often the case that differences between sexes are presented as 'advantages' and 'disadvantages' of one sex over the other. In our opinion, this is an over-simplification of the physiology which ignores the nuances and complexities of the integrative physiology of responses to heat exposure and exercise, and their relevance for practical outcomes.

Analysis of Probability Distributions for Modelling Extreme Rainfall Events and Detecting Climate Change: Insights from Mathematical and Statistical Methods

Exploring the realm of extreme weather events is indispensable for various engineering disciplines and plays a pivotal role in understanding climate change phenomena. In this study, we examine the ability of 10 probability distribution functions—including exponential, normal, two- and three-parameter log-normal, gamma, Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Pearson type III, log-Pearson type III, and SQRT-ET max distributions—to assess annual maximum 24 h rainfall series obtained over a long period (1972–2022) from three nearby meteorological stations. Goodness-of-fit analyses including Kolmogorov–Smirnov and chi-square tests reveal the inadequacy of exponential and normal distributions in capturing the complexity of the data sets. Subsequent frequency analysis and multi-criteria assessment enable us to discern optimal functions for various scenarios, including hydraulic engineering and sediment yield estimation. Notably, the log-Gumbel and three-parameter log-normal distributions exhibit superior performance for high return periods, while the Gumbel and three-parameter log-normal distributions excel for lower return periods. However, caution is advised regarding the overuse of log-Gumbel, due to its high sensitivity. Moreover, as our study considers the application of mathematical and statistical methods for the detection of extreme events, it also provides insights into climate change indicators, highlighting trends in the probability distribution of annual maximum 24 h rainfall. As a novelty in the field of functional analysis, the log-Gumbel distribution with a finite sample size is utilised for the assessment of extreme events, for which no previous work seems to have been conducted. These findings offer critical perspectives on extreme rainfall modelling and the impacts of climate change, enabling informed decision making for sustainable development and resilience.

RESILIENSI SOSIAL KOMUNITAS NELAYAN PESISIR DALAM MENGHADAPI FENOMENA PERUBAHAN IKLIM

This study was conducted with the aim of determining the resilience of fishing communities in Barru District, Barru Regency in facing the phenomenon of climate change. This research is a qualitative descriptive research. Data collection techniques use observation, interviews and documentation. Data analysis techniques use descriptive-qualitative analysis through the stages of data reduction, data presentation and conclusions. The results of this study show that traditional fishing communities and modern fishermen in the coastal areas of Barru District have felt the impact of climate change that affects the lives of fishing communities in environmental, socio-economic and physical aspects. For this reason, the ability of fishing communities to reduce vulnerability is demonstrated through adaptability at the level of stability, recovery and transformation. Resilience at the level of stability is carried out by surviving by utilizing family savings. At the level of recovery, the adaptation capacity of traditional fishing communities and modern fishing communities can be said to be high through survival by utilizing Human Resources (HR) assets by looking for other jobs outside of fishing activities but having low adaptation when dependent on bad weather. Traditional coastal fishing communities have limited supporting facilities in the process of marine activities so that they cannot be said to be at the level of transformation. Modern fishing communities have been at a level of transformation by increasing vessel tonnage, procuring new vessels and replacing fishing gear.

Modelling changes in vegetation productivity and carbon balance under future climate scenarios in southeastern Australia

Australia, characterized by extensive and heterogeneous terrestrial ecosystems, plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and in efforts to mitigate climate change. Prior research has quantified vegetation productivity and carbon balance within the Australian context over preceding decades. Nonetheless, the responses of vegetation and carbon dynamics to the evolving phenomena of climate change and escalating concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide remain ambiguous within the Australian landscape. Here, we used LPJ-GUESS model to assess the impacts of climate change on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Biome Productivity (NBP) of carbon for the state of New South Wales (NSW) in southeastern Australia. LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of 27 global climate models under different emission scenarios. We investigated the change of GPP for different vegetation types and whether NSW ecosystems will be a net sink or source of carbon under climate change. We found that LPJ-GUESS successfully simulated GPP for the period 2003–2021, demonstrating a comparative performance with GPP derived from upscaled eddy covariance fluxes (R2 = 0.58, nRMSE = 14.2 %). The simulated NBP showed a larger interannual variation compared with flux data and other inversion products but could capture the timing of rainfall-driven carbon sink and source variations in 2015–2020. GPP would increase by 10.3–19.5 % under a medium emission scenario and 19.7–46.8 % under a high emission scenario. The mean probability of NSW acting as a carbon sink in the future showed a small decrease with a large uncertainty with >8 of the 27 climate models indicating an increased potential for carbon sink. These findings emphasize the significance of emission scenarios in shaping future carbon dynamics but also highlight considerable uncertainties stemming from different climate projections. Our study represents a baseline for understanding natural ecosystem dynamics and their key role in governing land carbon uptake and storage in Australia.

Prediction of groundwater level using GMDH artificial neural network based on climate change scenarios

One of the main challenges regarding the prediction of groundwater resource changes is the climate change phenomenon and its impacts on quantitative variations of such resources. Groundwater resources are treated as one of the main strategic resources of any region. Given the climate change phenomenon and its impacts on hydrological parameters, it is necessary to evaluate and predict future changes to achieve an appropriate plan to maintain and preserve water resources. In this regard, the present study is put forward by utilizing the Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM) to forecast the main climate variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation) based on new Rcp scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions within a period from 2020 to 2060. The results obtained from the prediction of climate parameters indicate different values in each emission scenario, so the limit, minimum and maximum values occur in the Rcp8.5, Rcp2.6 and Rcp4.5 scenarios, respectively. Also, a model is developed by utilizing the GMDH artificial neural network technique. The developed model predicts the average groundwater level based on the climate variables in such a way that by implementing the climate parameters forecasted by the SDSM model, the groundwater level within a time period from 2020 to 2060 is predicted. The results obtained from the verification and validation of the model imply its proper performance and reasonable accuracy in predicating groundwater level based on the climate variables. The findings derived from the present paper indicate that compared to the years prior to the prediction period, the groundwater level of the Sahneh Plain has dramatically dropped so that based on the Rcp scenarios, the groundwater level values are in their lowest state within the period from 2046 to 2056. The findings of this paper can be used by managers and decision makers as a layout for evaluating climate change effects in the Sahneh Plain.

Applied insight: studying reducing the carbon footprint of the drying process and its environmental impact and financial return.

Harnessing solar energy is one of the most important practical insights highlighted to mitigate the severe climate change (CC) phenomenon. Therefore, this study aims to focus on the use of hybrid solar dryers (HSDs) within an environmentally friendly framework, which is one of the promising applications of solar thermal technology to replace traditional thermal technology that contributes to increasing the severity of the CC phenomenon. The HSD, based on a traditional electrical energy source (HSTEE) and electrical energy from photovoltaic panels (HSPVSE), was evaluated compared to a traditional electrical (TE) dryer for drying some medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs). This is done by evaluating some of the drying outputs, energy consumed, carbon footprint, and financial return at 30, 40, and 50°C. The best quality of dried MAP samples in terms of essential oil (EO, %) and microbial load was achieved at 40°C. The HSTEE dryer has reduced energy consumption compared to the TE dryer by a percentage ranging from 37% to 54%. The highest CO2 mitigated ratio using the HSTEE dryer was recorded in thyme, marjoram, and lemongrass samples, with values ranging from 45% to 54% at 30, 40, and 50°C. The highest financial return obtained from energy consumption reduction and carbon credit footprint was achieved at 50°C, with values ranging from 5,313.69 to 6,763.03 EGP/year (EGP ≈ 0.0352 USD) when coal was used as a fuel source for the generation of electricity. Moreover, the HSPVSE dryer achieved a 100% reduction in traditional energy consumption and then reduced CO2 emissions by 100%, which led to a 100% financial return from both energy reduction and carbon credit. The highest financial returns were observed at 50°C, with values ranging from 13,872.56 to 15,007.02, 12,927.28 to 13,984.43, and 11,981.99 to 12,961.85 EGP/year (EGP ≈ 0.0352 USD) for coal, oil, and natural gas, respectively. The HS dryers show potential for environmental conservation contribution; furthermore, earning money from energy savings and carbon credit could help improve the living standards and maximize benefits for stakeholders.