Phenological Synchrony Research Articles

Age-sex analysis for the diet of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, China.

Age-sex differences in diet have been reported in many nonhuman primates, and body size, reproductive costs, and growth are three mutually non-exclusive factors often proposed to explain such differences. Smaller animals tend to feed on high quality foods (high in protein/energy) more often than larger animals due to their higher metabolic requirements per body weight. Animals of different sizes tend to use different substrate levels, leading to dietary differences if food resources are unevenly distributed along substrate levels. Adult females and juveniles experience additional metabolic requirements for reproduction and growth, respectively, and tend to feed on high quality foods more frequently than adult males. We conducted an age-sex analysis for the diet of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Shennongjia, China. In spite of general age-sex similarities, we found that adult males ate herbs more frequently than juveniles and adult females, most likely because they were more terrestrial. As predicted, juveniles ate high quality foods (young leaves, fruits, seeds, and buds) more frequently, and meanwhile ate low quality foods (barks and lichens) less frequently than adult males across the study year or in some seasons when these food types were eaten. However, we found high similarities in diet between adult females and adult males. The most likely reason was that the low diversity of food sources and strong phenological synchrony did not allow adult females to select foods based on quality to cope with their higher metabolic constraints compared to adult males. Surprisingly, the only sex difference in diet except herbs was that adult females ate lichens more frequently in autumn. One plausible reason was that lactating females experienced their highest metabolic requirements in the middle period of infant care (autumn), and had to disproportionately increase the intake of lichens due to the limited availability of plant foods.

Evaluation of the phenological synchrony between potato crop and Colorado potato beetle under future climate in Europe

Europe is one of the world’s largest food producers, and climate change may pose a serious threat to food security in the region. In the present study, we assess the potential impact of climate change on the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB), Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say)—a severe pest of potato (Solanum tuberosum, L.). We also investigate the possible impact of climate change on the phenological development of potato. The main focus is on factors that may limit the northward expansion of the CPB, and the number of generations per year in areas where the insect pest is already present. These factors include lack of temperature sum for completed development before winter, and lack of food (i.e. potato) due to mismatches in insect-host plant phenological synchrony.We use a gridded observational dataset and an ensemble of bias corrected regional climate model data for the period of 1981–2099, representing RCP8.5, as input to a potato and CPB phenological model. The results show that in the future, CPB individuals with a low developmental threshold (+10°C) can complete maturity of two generations per year before potato is harvested in most parts of Europe. A third generation of CPB may not be able to complete maturation due to lack of food in south and central Europe, while temperature becomes a limiting factor further north. In north-eastern Europe, the initiation of a first generation may be delayed due to lack of food in spring. CPBs with a high developmental threshold (+12°C) will emerge later from winter hibernation, and food availability will therefore not be a problem in spring. However, individuals with a high developmental threshold face a greater risk of regeneration failure caused by harvesting of potato in autumn. The potential lack of food in autumn may also increase the strength of selection towards a low developmental threshold in northern populations. The combined analysis of CPB and potato phenology indicated that climate change can lead to increased pressure from the CPB in most potato growing areas.

Individual resource limitation combined with population‐wide pollen availability drives masting in the valley oak (Quercus lobata)

Summary Masting, the synchronized production of variable seed crops, is widespread among woody plants, but there is no consensus about the underlying proximate mechanisms. To understand this population‐level behaviour, it is necessary to dissect the behaviour of individual trees as well as the interactions that synchronize them. Here, we test a model of masting in which variability in seed set is driven by resource limitation within trees and synchrony is driven by pollen limitation due to phenological asynchrony in some years. We used a 35‐year seed set data set and a 12‐year phenological data set to analyse seed production of 84 valley oaks (Quercus lobata) in central coastal California. Individual trees varied tremendously in their seed production patterns; trees with high levels of seed production were less variable over time, but showed stronger negative autocorrelation between years, suggesting that they are more resource‐limited than unproductive trees. In years of more asynchronous flowering, Q. lobata produced fewer seeds, consistent with the importance of phenological synchrony. We parametrized a model with these results to investigate how individual resource limitation and population‐wide pollen limitation – a consequence of asynchronous flowering during cold spring temperatures – interact to shape annual variation in seed production. The model illustrates that this proximate abiotic driver can synchronize the behaviour of individuals, resulting in population‐wide seed production patterns that closely resemble the field data. Synthesis. Our findings support the hypothesis that an interaction between two proximate mechanisms, individual resource limitation and environmental variation affecting population‐wide pollen availability, drives masting in this population of Quercus lobata. This combination of internal and external proximate drivers may underlie masting behaviour in many wind‐pollinated plants.

Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate

Future forests are being shaped by changing climate and disturbances. Climate change is causing large-scale forest declines globally, in addition to distributional shifts of many tree species. Because environmental cues dictate insect seasonality and population success, climate change is also influencing tree-killing bark beetles. The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, is a major disturbance in Pinus forests of the western US. Using a mechanistic, phenology-based demographic model driven by downscaled daily temperature data, we describe recent and future spatial and temporal thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a topographically complex region. Trends in model-predicted growth rates among Global Climate Models were similar and suggest that, relative to future trends, mountain pine beetle population growth within the past 60 years was most optimal at middle elevations and least optimal at the lowest and highest elevations. This trend aligns with observed mountain pine beetle-caused tree mortality that was greatest at middle elevations between 1997 and 2013, as estimated from Aerial Detection Surveys. However, thermal suitability for optimal phenological synchrony was predicted to shift in recent years, and by the end of the century, the best thermal habitats for mountain pine beetle will be at the lowest and highest elevations. Mechanistic demographic models are valuable tools for modelling future thermal regimes that may be both beneficial and maladaptive for mountain pine beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality.

Effects of winter temperatures, spring degree-day accumulation, and insect population source on phenological synchrony between forest tent caterpillar and host trees

Global climate change has the potential to dramatically alter multiple ecosystem processes, including herbivory. The development rates of both plants and insects are highly sensitive to temperature. Although considerable work has examined the effects of temperature on spring phenologies of plants and insects individually, few studies have examined how anticipated warming will influence their phenological synchrony. We applied elevated temperatures of 1.7 and 3.4°C in a controlled chamberless outdoor experiment in northeastern Minnesota, USA to examine the relative responses in onset of egg eclosion by forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) and budbreak of two of its major host trees (trembling aspen, Populus tremuloides Michaux, and paper birch, Betula papyrifera Marshall). We superimposed four insect population sources and two overwintering regimes onto these treatments, and computed degree-day models. Timing of egg hatch varied among population source, overwintering location, and spring temperature regime. As expected, the development rates of plants and insects advanced under warmer conditions relative to ambient controls. However, budbreak advanced more than egg hatch. The degree of phenological synchrony between M. disstria and each host plant was differentially altered in response to warming. The interval by which birch budbreak preceded egg hatch nearly doubled from ambient to +1.7°C. In the case of aspen, the sequence changed from egg hatch preceding, to following, budbreak at +3.4°C. Additionally, under temperature regimes simulating future conditions, some insect populations currently south of our study sites became more synchronous with the manipulated hosts than did currently coexisting insect populations. These findings reveal how climate warming can alter insect-host plant interactions, through changes in phenological synchrony, possibly driving host shifts among tree species and genotypes. They also suggest how herbivore variability, both among populations and within individual egg masses, may provide opportunities for adaptation, especially in species that are highly mobile and polyphagous.

Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests

The extent to which distant populations fluctuate similarly has significant ecological consequences, but can be difficult to investigate. Now research reveals the drivers of phenological synchrony for aphid pest species across the United Kingdom. Spatial synchrony, the tendency of distant populations to fluctuate similarly, is a major concern in ecology1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Except in special circumstances3,9, researchers historically had difficulty identifying drivers of synchrony in field systems5,6,10. Perhaps for this reason, the possibility9,11,12 that changes in large-scale climatic drivers may modify synchrony, thereby impacting ecosystems and human concerns, has been little examined. Here, we use wavelets to determine environmental drivers of phenological synchrony across Britain for 20 aphid species, most major crop pests. Consistently across species, changes in drivers produced large changes in aphid synchrony. Different drivers acted on different timescales: using a new wavelet analogue of the Moran theorem1, we show that on long timescales (>4 years), 80% of synchrony in aphid first flights is due to synchrony in winter climate; but this explanation accounts for less short-timescale (≤4 years) synchrony. Changes in aphid synchrony over time also differed by timescale: long-timescale synchrony fell from before 1993 to after, caused by similar changes in winter climate; whereas short-timescale synchrony increased. Shifts in winter climate are attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation, an important climatic phenomenon7,11,13, so effects described here may influence other taxa. This study documents a new way that climatic changes influence populations, through altered Moran effects.

Contrasting synchrony in root and leaf phenology across multiple sub‐Arctic plant communities

Summary Roots account for > 50% of net primary production in many ecosystems and are widely accepted as playing a fundamental role in ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. Despite this, the timing and controls of root production and the relationships between root and leaf phenology are still poorly understood in many plant communities, making it challenging to elucidate broad scale patterns and to predict ecosystem responses to a changing climate. Here, we investigate and compare the extent of synchrony of community‐level fine root and leaf production in 10 widespread sub‐Arctic plant communities, including deciduous forest, evergreen shrub, deciduous shrub and sedge‐dominated communities. We show that across contrasting plant communities, timing of leaf production does not vary substantially, but there are considerable differences in timing of root production between woody plant‐ and sedge‐dominated vegetation. In sedge communities, root production occurs early in the growing season, soon after the peak of leaf production, whereas in woody plant communities, leaf and root production are highly asynchronous, with the majority of root production occurring late in the growing season. Seasonal dynamics of root growth were not consistently correlated with soil temperature, suggesting that differences in timing of production relate to inherent differences between plant functional types. This raises important questions as to the drivers of root production, the functional reasons underlying these contrasting plant strategies, as well as the consequences for microbial communities and nutrient cycling of such contrasting timing of carbon inputs to soil. Synthesis. We demonstrate that major differences exist in the synchrony of temporal dynamics of leaf and root production between woody plant and sedge‐dominated sub‐Arctic vegetation. The substantially greater asynchrony in root and leaf production in woody plants compared with sedges suggests that vegetation change associated with climate warming will result in significant shifts in timing of carbon fluxes to soil, and highlights the need for separate leaf and root components in ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycle models.

Seasonal changes in pollen limitation and femaleness along the snowmelt gradient in a distylous alpine herb,Primula modesta

Flowering phenology of alpine plants is strongly determined by the timing of snowmelt, and the conditions of pollination of widely distributed plants vary greatly during their flowering season. We examined the reproductive success of the distylous alpine herb, Primula modesta, along the snowmelt gradient under natural conditions, and compared it with the result of artificial pollination experiments. In addition, the compositions and visit frequencies of pollinators to the flower of P. modesta were examined during the flowering period. The pin and thrum plants of P. modesta growing at the same site have an equal ability to produce seeds if a sufficient amount of legitimate pollen grains are deposited on the stigma surface. However, under natural conditions, their seed‐set success was often (even if not always) restricted by pollen limitation, and the functional gender of the pin and thrum plants biased to the female and male, respectively, associated with their growing sites. These variations were not ascribed to resource limitation nor biased morph ratio but to the seasonal changes in pollination situations, a replacement of pollinator types from long‐ to short‐tongued pollinators resulted in unidirectional pollen transfer from long stamens (thrum plants) to long styles (pin plants). The functional gender specialization may enhance the evolution of dioecy from heterostyly, but the severe pollen limitation may cause the breakdown of heterostyly into homostyly. To consider the evolutionary pathway of heterostylous plants, an accumulation of the empirical data is required demonstrating how phenological synchrony between plants and pollinators is decided and to what degree this relationship is stable over years, along with estimates of selection and gene flow in individual plants.

Predicting bird phenology from space: satellite-derived vegetation green-up signal uncovers spatial variation in phenological synchrony between birds and their environment.

Population-level studies of how tit species (Parus spp.) track the changing phenology of their caterpillar food source have provided a model system allowing inference into how populations can adjust to changing climates, but are often limited because they implicitly assume all individuals experience similar environments. Ecologists are increasingly using satellite-derived data to quantify aspects of animals' environments, but so far studies examining phenology have generally done so at large spatial scales. Considering the scale at which individuals experience their environment is likely to be key if we are to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes acting on reproductive phenology within populations. Here, we use time series of satellite images, with a resolution of 240m, to quantify spatial variation in vegetation green-up for a 385-ha mixed-deciduous woodland. Using data spanning 13years, we demonstrate that annual population-level measures of the timing of peak abundance of winter moth larvae (Operophtera brumata) and the timing of egg laying in great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is related to satellite-derived spring vegetation phenology. We go on to show that timing of local vegetation green-up significantly explained individual differences in tit reproductive phenology within the population, and that the degree of synchrony between bird and vegetation phenology showed marked spatial variation across the woodland. Areas of high oak tree (Quercus robur) and hazel (Corylus avellana) density showed the strongest match between remote-sensed vegetation phenology and reproductive phenology in both species. Marked within-population variation in the extent to which phenology of different trophic levels match suggests that more attention should be given to small-scale processes when exploring the causes and consequences of phenological matching. We discuss how use of remotely sensed data to study within-population variation could broaden the scale and scope of studies exploring phenological synchrony between organisms and their environment.

In a warmer Arctic, mosquitoes avoid increased mortality from predators by growing faster.

Climate change is altering environmental temperature, a factor that influences ectothermic organisms by controlling rates of physiological processes. Demographic effects of warming, however, are determined by the expression of these physiological effects through predator-prey and other species interactions. Using field observations and controlled experiments, we measured how increasing temperatures in the Arctic affected development rates and mortality rates (from predation) of immature Arctic mosquitoes in western Greenland. We then developed and parametrized a demographic model to evaluate how temperature affects survival of mosquitoes from the immature to the adult stage. Our studies showed that warming increased development rate of immature mosquitoes (Q10 = 2.8) but also increased daily mortality from increased predation rates by a dytiscid beetle (Q10 = 1.2-1.5). Despite increased daily mortality, the model indicated that faster development and fewer days exposed to predators resulted in an increased probability of mosquito survival to the adult stage. Warming also advanced mosquito phenology, bringing mosquitoes into phenological synchrony with caribou. Increases in biting pests will have negative consequences for caribou and their role as a subsistence resource for local communities. Generalizable frameworks that account for multiple effects of temperature are needed to understand how climate change impacts coupled human-natural systems.

Phenological synchrony and bird migration: changing climate and seasonal resources in North America

Phenological synchrony and bird migration: changing climate and seasonal resources in North America

Phenological synchronization drives demographic rates of populations.

Phenology is increasingly recognized as an important factor structuring communities because it determines when and at what life stage organisms interact. Previous work indicates that changes in first or mean timing of a phenological event can affect populations and communities, but little is known about the consequences of changes in the distribution (e.g., synchrony) of a phenological event. We conducted an experiment using an anuran study system to determine how synchrony of reproduction and egg hatching affects offspring performance, whether the effects are density dependent, and how hatching synchrony influences the synchrony of a subsequent phenological event (metamorphosis). Changes in hatching synchrony altered survival, development rates, and body size at metamorphosis, which can affect post-metamorphosis performance. The degree of synchrony at hatching also affected the degree of synchrony at metamorphosis, indicating that timing of one stage can carry over to affect that of later ones. Importantly, these effects were all density dependent, likely because decreasing hatching synchrony switched intraspecific interactions from scramble to contest competition. This study demonstrates that phenological synchrony has important consequences for ecological interactions and population dynamics, emphasizing the need to develop a comprehensive understanding of how shifts in phenological distributions affect communities.

Evaluating Predators and Competitors in Wisconsin Red Pine Forests for Attraction to Mountain Pine Beetle Pheromones for Anticipatory Biological Control.

Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is an irruptive tree-killing species native to pine forests of western North America. Two potential pathways of spread to eastern forests have recently been identified. First, warming temperatures have driven range expansion from British Columbia into Albertan jack pine forests that are contiguous with the Great Lakes region. Second, high temperatures and drought have fostered largescale outbreaks within the historical range, creating economic incentives to salvage killed timber by transporting logs to midwestern markets, which risks accidental introduction. We evaluated the extent to which local predators and competitors that exploit bark beetle semiochemicals would respond to D. ponderosae in Wisconsin. We emulated D. ponderosae attack by deploying lures containing synthetic aggregation pheromones with and without host tree compounds and blank control traps in six red pine plantations over 2 yr. Predator populations were high in these stands, as evidenced by catches in positive control traps, baited with pheromones of local bark beetles and were deployed distant from behavioral choice plots. Only one predator, Thanasimus dubius F. (Coleoptera: Cleridae) was attracted to D. ponderosae's aggregation pheromones relative to blank controls, and its attraction was relatively weak. The most common bark beetles attracted to these pheromones were lower stem and root colonizers, which likely would facilitate rather than compete with D. ponderosae. There was some, but weak, attraction of potentially competing Ips species. Other factors that might influence natural enemy impacts on D. ponderosae in midwestern forests, such as phenological synchrony and exploitation of male-produced pheromones, are discussed.

Scale-Dependent Phenological Synchrony between Songbirds and Their Caterpillar Food Source

In seasonal environments, the timing of reproduction has important fitness consequences. Our current understanding of the determinants of reproductive phenology in natural systems is limited because studies often ignore the spatial scale on which animals interact with their environment. When animals use a restricted amount of space and the phenology of resources is spatially variable, selection may favor sensitivity to small-scale environmental variation. Population-level studies of how songbirds track the changing phenology of their food source have been influential in explaining how populations adjust to changing climates but have largely ignored the spatial scale at which phenology varies. We explored whether individual great tits (Parus major) synchronize their breeding with phenological events in their local environment and investigated the spatial scale at which this occurs. We demonstrate marked variation in the timing of food availability, at a spatial scale relevant to individual birds, and that such local variation predicts the breeding phenology of individuals. Using a 45-year data set, we show that measures of vegetation phenology at very local scales are the most important predictors of timing of breeding within years, suggesting that birds can fine-tune their phenology to that of other trophic levels. Knowledge of the determinants of variation in reproductive behavior at different spatial scales is likely to be critical in understanding how selection operates on breeding phenology in natural populations.

Ecosystem functional assessment based on the “optical type” concept and self-similarity patterns: An application using MODIS-NDVI time series autocorrelation

Remote sensing (RS) time series are an excellent operative source for information about the land surface across several scales and different levels of landscape heterogeneity. Ustin and Gamon (2010) proposed the new concept of “optical types” (OT), meaning “optically distinguishable functional types”, as a way to better understand remote sensing signals related to the actual functional behavior of species that share common physiognomic forms but differ in functionality. Whereas the OT approach seems to be promising and consistent with ecological theory as a way to monitor vegetation derived from RS, it received little implementation.This work presents a method for implementing the OT concept for efficient monitoring of ecosystems based on RS time series. We propose relying on an ecosystem's repetitive pattern in the temporal domain (self-similarity) to assess its dynamics. Based on this approach, our main hypothesis is that distinct dynamics are intrinsic to a specific OT. Self-similarity level in the temporal domain within a broadleaf forest class was quantitatively assessed using the auto-correlation function (ACF), from statistical time series analysis. A vector comparison classification method, spectral angle mapper, and principal component analysis were used to identify general patterns related to forest dynamics. Phenological metrics derived from MODIS NDVI time series using the TIMESAT software, together with information from the National Forest Map were used to explain the different dynamics found.Results showed significant and highly stable self-similarity patterns in OTs that corresponded to forests under non-moisture-limited environments with an adaptation strategy based on a strong phenological synchrony with climate seasonality. These forests are characterized by dense closed canopy deciduous forests associated with high productivity and low biodiversity in terms of dominant species. Forests in transitional areas were associated with patterns of less temporal stability probably due to mixtures of different adaptation strategies (i.e., deciduous, marcescent and evergreen species) and higher functional diversity related to climate variability at long and short terms. A less distinct seasonality and even a double season appear in the OT of the broadleaf Mediterranean forest characterized by an open canopy dominated by evergreen-sclerophyllous formations. Within this forest, understory and overstory dynamics maximize functional diversity resulting in contrasting traits adapted to summer drought, winter frosts, and high precipitation variability.

Species Introductions and Their Cascading Impacts on Biotic Interactions in desert riparian ecosystems.

Desert riparian ecosystems of North America are hotspots of biodiversity that support many sensitive species, and are in a region experiencing some of the highest rates of climatic alteration in North America. Fremont cottonwood, Populus fremontii, is a foundation tree species of this critical habitat, but it is threatened by global warming and regional drying, and by a non-native tree/shrub, Tamarix spp., all of which can disrupt the mutualism between P. fremontii and its beneficial mycorrhizal fungal communities. Specialist herbivorous leaf beetles (Diorhabda spp.) introduced for biocontrol of Tamarix are altering the relationship between this shrub and its environment. Repeated episodic feeding on Tamarix foliage by Diorhabda results in varying rates of dieback and mortality, depending on genetic variation in allocation of resources, growing conditions, and phenological synchrony between herbivore and host plant. In this article, we review the complex interaction between climatic change and species introductions and their combined impacts on P. fremontii and their associated communities. We anticipate that (1) certain genotypes of P. fremontii will respond more favorably to the presence of Tamarix and to climatic change due to varying selection pressures to cope with competition and stress; (2) the ongoing evolution of Diorhabda's life cycle timing will continue to facilitate its expansion in North America, and will over time enhance herbivore impact to Tamarix; (3) defoliation by Diorhabda will reduce the negative impact of Tamarix on P. fremontii associations with mycorrhizal fungi; and (4) spatial variability in climate and climatic change will modify the capacity for Tamarix to survive episodic defoliation by Diorhabda, thereby altering the relationship between Tamarix and P. fremontii, and its associated mycorrhizal fungal communities. Given the complex biotic/abiotic interactions outlined in this review, conservation biologists and riparian ecosystem managers should strive to identify and conserve the phenotypic traits that underpin tolerance and resistance to stressors such as climate change and species invasion. Such efforts will greatly enhance conservation restoration efficacy for protecting P. fremontii forests and their associated communities.

Escape of spring frost and disease through phenological variations in oak populations along elevation gradients

Summary The timing of tree flushing follows strong phenotypic and genetic clines across environmental gradients. It may be seen as an adaptive response to abiotic (escape of spring frost and maximizing growing season length) and biotic (escape of pest and disease) hazards. However, few studies have investigated jointly both types of hazards. We assessed exposure to both abiotic (spring frost) and biotic (powdery mildew) hazards within and between sessile oak populations along elevation gradients, during the flushing period in several years. For each population and phenological phenotype (early‐ vs. late‐flushing trees), we estimated safety margins, defined as the time period separating budburst from the hazard occurrence (spore emission, spring frost). We observed that powdery mildew phenology (initiation of spore release in spring) was less responsive to the elevation gradient than oak phenology (budburst) and that it was not correlated with tree phenology within populations. The spring frost and disease safety margins varied considerably between oak populations as a function of elevation and within populations in relation to tree phenological phenotype. For both hazards, safety margins decreased significantly with increasing elevation. The safety margin for spring frost was mostly positive (i.e. escape), whereas the safety margin for powdery mildew was mostly negative (i.e. exposure), leading to infection. The abiotic and biotic hazards interact in opposite directions with phenology, especially at low elevations (< 500 m) where early flushing enabled trees to escape disease while late flushing provided a higher safety margin against late frost. Synthesis. The observed patterns suggest that oak populations are better adapted to escape spring frost than pathogen exposure all along the elevation gradient. The combination of the biotic and abiotic selective pressures may have contributed to the maintenance of phenological diversity within low‐elevation tree populations. As tree and pathogen respond differently to environmental cues, climate change is likely to affect the phenological (a)synchrony between host and parasite, both within and between populations.

Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate.

Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.

Tree-ring response of jack pine and scots pine to budworm defoliation in central Canada

Insect outbreaks constitute major disturbances and global climate changes are expected to increase their frequency and severity. In Canada, an increase in outbreak severity of the jack pine budworm is expected as a consequence of more frequent droughts associated with climate changes. In this study, the impact of jack pine budworm defoliation on radial growth was assessed on two host species: jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Standard tree-ring chronologies were developed for each host species in thirteen plantations established in the early 20th century and located in Spruce Woods Provincial Forest (central Canada). Radial growth suppressions caused by jack pine budworm defoliation were identified using a host and non-host comparison and calibrated against historical outbreak records. Five periods of major growth suppression were identified (1956–1958, 1966–1968, 1974–1977, 1979–1980 and 1984–1986) that matched historical jack pine budworm outbreaks. An annual tree-ring signature made up of a tree ring with thin latewood followed by a narrow ring most often characterized these growth suppressions. The occurrence of missing rings also increased during outbreaks. Based on the timing of suppression, jack pine was the initial host with scots pine often showing a one year lag in suppression. However, scots pine may be more sensitive to jack pine budworm defoliation as indicated by the abundance of missing rings during outbreak years. In the study area, jack pine budworm outbreaks were generally associated with the occurrence of dry summers and cool May temperatures. No outbreak occurred in the study area since the mid-1980s. The occurrence of droughts that were not synchronized with cool May temperatures suggests that warmer springs associated with climate changes could alter the phenological synchrony between the jack pine budworm and its host trees species. Future research should attempt to (i) relate the results of this study to natural forest stands where management practices (and non-native tree species) have not influenced the natural jack pine budworm population dynamics, (ii) assess the spatial dynamics of these outbreaks using a network of tree-ring chronologies and (iii) reconstruct outbreaks prior to historical surveys. Such research would help develop a better understanding of insect population dynamics and subsequent impacts on both European and North American forests under future climate changes.

Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska

Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long-term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long-term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long-term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long-term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams. Temporal changes in the median date of salmon migration timing varied widely across species. Most sockeye populations are migrating later over time (11 of 14), but pink, chum, and especially coho populations are migrating earlier than they did historically (16 of 19 combined). Temporal trends in duration and interannual variation in migration timing were highly variable across species and populations. The greatest temporal shifts in the median date of migration timing were correlated with decreases in the duration of migration timing, suggestive of a loss of phenotypic variation due to natural selection. Pairwise interannual correlations in migration timing varied widely but were generally positive, providing evidence for weak region-wide phenological synchrony. This synchrony is likely a function of climatic variation, as interannual variation in migration timing was related to climatic phenomenon operating at large- (Pacific decadal oscillation), moderate- (sea surface temperature), and local-scales (precipitation). Surprisingly, the presence or the absence of glaciers within a watershed was unrelated to long-term shifts in phenology. Overall, there was extensive heterogeneity in long-term patterns of migration timing throughout this climatically and geographically complex region, highlighting that future climatic change will likely have widely divergent impacts on salmon migration timing. Although salmon phenological diversity will complicate future predictions of migration timing, this variation likely acts as a major contributor to population and ecosystem resiliency in southeast Alaska.