Phase Of Outbreak Research Articles

Variations in Marine Bacterial and Archaeal Communities during an Ulva prolifera Green Tide in Coastal Qingdao Areas.

Green tides caused by Ulva prolifera occur annually in the Yellow Sea, potentially influencing the marine microorganisms. Here, we focused on the variations in marine bacterial and archaeal communities during an U. prolifera green tide in coastal Qingdao areas with Illumina high-throughput sequencing analysis. Our results revealed that the diversity and structure of bacterial and archaeal communities, as well as the organization and structure of microbial co-occurrence networks, varied during the green tide. The decline phase may be favorable to the bacterial and archaeal diversity and richness. The bacterial community, as well as the archaeal community, showed clear variations between the outbreak and decline phases. A simpler and less connected microbial co-occurrence network was observed during the outbreak phase compared with the decline phase. Flavobacteriales and Rhodobacterales separately dominated the bacterial community during the outbreak and decline phase, and Marine Group II (MGII) dominated the archaeal community during the green tide. Combined with microbial co-occurrence network analysis, Flavobacteriales, Rhodobacterales and MGII may be important organisms during the green tide. Temperature, chlorophyll a content and salinity may have an important impact on the variations in bacterial and archaeal communities during the green tide.

Changes in occupational well-being during COVID-19: the impact of age, gender, education, living alone, and telework in a Finnish four-wave population sample.

This study investigated how occupational well-being evolved across different phases, before and during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Finnish population. Whereas studies have suggested that certain demographic groups (eg, young, female) are more at risk during COVID-19, less is known whether the effects of such demographic factors may vary (i) across different phases of the unfolding viral outbreak and (ii) on different dimensions of occupational well-being. As they are predictors of changes in burnout, job boredom, and work engagement, we examined age, gender, education, living alone, and teleworking. This is the first study to provide such detailed knowledge regarding the changes in various occupational well-being dimensions before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. We collected randomized population panel data at the end of 2019 and conducted three follow-up surveys with 6-month intervals (N=532). The data were analyzed with latent change score models. Whereas during spring 2020, occupational well-being slightly improved, in autumn 2020 well-being decreased back to pre-COVID-19 levels. There was an indication of slight increases in job boredom between before COVID-19 and summer 2021. Well-being deteriorated more for the young and those who lived alone. There was also some indication of females, those with lower education, and non-teleworkers experiencing less favorable changes in occupational well-being. Teleworking appeared to have more beneficial effects on well-being for those with lower education. The study suggests that only relatively minor changes in well-being took place among the employed population. A particular focus in workplaces should be targeted at younger employees.

Twin peaks of in-hospital mortality among patients with STEMI across five phases of COVID-19 outbreak in China: a nation-wide study.

Lockdown and re-opening may become cyclical due to the recurrent waves of the COVID-19 epidemic. Few studies have examined temporal trends and determinants of in-hospital mortality among patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), a life-threatening condition that requires emergency medical care. Using nation-wide data before, during and after the Wuhan lockdown, we aimed to depict temporal patterns and major determinants of STEMI in-hospital mortality in China across five time periods of the COVID-19 epidemic. We analyzed the data of 283,661 STEMI patients who were admitted to 4,487 chest-pain-centers across China, from January 1, 2019 to May 31, 2020. Compared with the period before the lockdown, STEMI in-hospital mortality increased by 25% (OR 1.25, 95%CI 1.16–1.34) during Early Lockdown, by 12% (OR 1.12, 95%CI 1.03–1.22) during Later Lockdown, by 35% (OR 1.35, 95%CI 1.21–1.50) during Early Lift, and returned to pre-COVID risk (OR 1.04, 95%CI 0.95–1.14) during Later Lift. For each time-period, we observed a clear mortality gradient by timing and types of revascularization procedure. In conclusion, the COVID-19 epidemic had a significant adverse impact on STEMI in-hospital mortality, with bimodal peaks during early lockdown and early lift periods and clear mortality gradients by timing and types of revascularization procedure, independent of the time periods.Supporting InformationThe supporting information is available online at 10.1007/s11427-021-2046-4. The supporting materials are published as submitted, without typesetting or editing. The responsibility for scientific accuracy and content remains entirely with the authors.

Exploring differences in crisis literacy and efficacy on behavioral responses during infectious disease outbreaks

This study examined the effects of literacy and efficacy on individuals’ protective action taking and information seeking during the early phase of infectious disease outbreaks through a nationally representative survey of 1164 U.S. adults. New measures of disaster literacy and crisis efficacy were tested. Overall, results revealed that crisis efficacy and organizational efficacy drove protective action taking and information seeking intentions, while health literacy did not. Disaster literacy negatively predicted both protective action advice seeking and information seeking. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening public efficacy and improving relationships between health authorities and the public, which is greatly influenced by the public’s confidence in the health authority’s management of the crisis.

The Social and Economic Factors Underlying the Incidence of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in US Counties During the Initial Outbreak Phase

This paper uncovers the socioeconomic and health/lifestyle factors that can explain the differential impact of the coronavirus pandemic on different parts of the United States during the initial outbreak phase of the pandemic. Using a dynamic panel representation of an epidemiological model of disease spread, the paper develops a Vulnerability Index for US counties from the daily reported number of cases over a 20-day period of rapid disease growth. County-level economic, demographic, and health factors are used to explain the differences in the values of this index and thereby the transmission and concentration of the disease across the country. These factors are also used to examine the number of reported deaths. The paper finds that counties with high median income have a high incidence of cases but reported lower deaths. Income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, is found to be associated with more deaths and more cases. The remarkable similarity in the distribution of cases across the country and the distribution of distance-weighted international passengers served by the top international airports is evidence of the spread of the virus by way of international travel. The distributions of age, race and health risk factors such as obesity and diabetes are found to be particularly significant factors in explaining the differences in mortality across counties. Counties with better access to health care, as measured by the number of primary care physicians per capita, have lower deaths, and so do places with more health awareness as measured by flu vaccination prevalence. Environmental health conditions such as the amount of air pollution are found to be associated with counties with higher deaths from the virus. It is hoped that research such as these will help policymakers to develop risk factors for each region of the country to better contain the spread of infectious diseases in the future.

Using 'infodemics' to understand public awareness and perception of SARS-CoV-2: A longitudinal analysis of online information about COVID-19 incidence and mortality during a major outbreak in Vietnam, July-September 2020.

BackgroundTrends in the public perception and awareness of COVID-19 over time are poorly understood. We conducted a longitudinal study to analyze characteristics and trends of online information during a major COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang province, Vietnam in July-August 2020 to understand public awareness and perceptions during an epidemic.MethodsWe collected online information on COVID-19 incidence and mortality from online platforms in Vietnam between 1 July and 15 September, 2020, and assessed their trends over time against the epidemic curve. We explored the associations between engagement, sentiment polarity, and other characteristics of online information with different outbreak phases using Poisson regression and multinomial logistic regression analysis. We assessed the frequency of keywords over time, and conducted a semantic analysis of keywords using word segmentation.ResultsWe found a close association between collected online information and the evolution of the COVID-19 situation in Vietnam. Online information generated higher engagements during compared to before the outbreak. There was a close relationship between sentiment polarity and posts’ topics: the emotional tendencies about COVID-19 mortality were significantly more negative, and more neutral or positive about COVID-19 incidence. Online newspaper reported significantly more information in negative or positive sentiment than online forums or social media. Most topics of public concern followed closely the progression of the COVID-19 situation during the outbreak: development of the global pandemic and vaccination; the unfolding outbreak in Vietnam; and the subsiding of the outbreak after two months.ConclusionThis study shows how online information can reflect a public health threat in real time, and provides important insights about public awareness and perception during different outbreak phases. Our findings can help public health decision makers in Vietnam and other low and middle income countries with high internet penetration rates to design more effective communication strategies during critical phases of an epidemic.

Changes in water use and wastewater generation influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study of China

This paper examines and projects the water use and wastewater generation during and after the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in China, and discussed the water use/wastewater generation pattern changes among different sectors. Existing studies on the impact of pandemic spread-prevention measures on water consumption and wastewater treatment during the pandemic are reviewed. The water use and wastewater discharge in China through the COVID-19 period are then projected and analyzed using Multivariate Linear Regression. The projection is carried out for years 2019–2023 and covers an (estimated) full process of pre-pandemic, pandemic outbreak, and recovery phase and provides essential information for determining the complete phase impact of the COVID-19. Two scenarios, i.e. the recovery scenario and the business as usual scenario, are set to investigate the water use and wastewater generation characteristics after the pandemic. The results imply that in both scenarios, the water use in China shows a V-shaped trend from 2019 to 2023 and reached a low point in 2020 of 5,813✕108 m3. The wastewater discharge shows an increasing trend throughout the COVID period in both scenarios. The results are also compared with the water consumption and wastewater generation during the SARS-CoV-1 period. The implication for policymakers is the possible increase of water use and wastewater discharge in the post COVID period and the necessity to ensure the water supply and control of water pollution and wastewater discharge.

Massive windfalls boost an ongoing spruce bark beetle outbreak in the Southern Alps

European coniferous forests are currently threatened by bark beetles (e.g. Ips typographus) because of an increasing incidence of triggering factors, such as drought and windstorms. Furthermore, such natural disturbances are expected to increase in terms of magnitude and frequency due to climate change, and thus interacting with each other. Here, we present a particular case study in the Southern Italian Alps (Gares, Canale d’Agordo, Belluno), in which wind disturbance interacts with an ongoing outbreak of I. typographus, probably associated with an extended drought in the previous three years. By combining remote sensing and field surveys, we spatially reconstructed the bark beetle attack in the period 2015-2021, which includes the Vaia windstorm in October 2018. Although the windstorm occurred in an expanding phase of the bark beetle outbreak, attacks on standing trees did not occur during the first year after the windstorm but were observed two years later. Our findings suggest that an overlap of a large availability of wind felled trees with an incipient outbreak of I. typographus resulted in an immediate decrease of standing trees mortality in the year following the storm. However, the fallen trees worked as a hidden sink for the beetle population, which in the following years massively attacked the standing trees that survived the storm.

Clinical sensitivity of rapid antigen test during a COVID-19 outbreak in Taipei, May to June 2021

Background/purposeThis population-based study aimed to compare the accuracy of Rapid antigen detection (RAD) and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays for diagnosing individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the COVID-19 outbreak in Taipei, from May to June 2021.MethodsIn response to the outbreak of COVID-19 in mid-May 2021, Taipei City Hospital set up 12 citywide proactive community testing (PCT) stations for early identification of infected individuals from May 17 to June 20, 2021. Individuals with RAD positivity were isolated and later confirmed by RT-PCR. The c-statistic value was estimated to indicate the level of diagnostic accuracy of RAD tests.ResultsOf the 33,798 individuals who were evaluated for SARS-CoV-2 infection, 4.4% tested positive for RAD. There was a moderate concordance (kappa = 0.67) between the RAD tests and RT-PCR assay for identifying infectious individuals. The c-statistic value of the RAD test for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 0.8. There was a positive linear trend between the accuracy of the RAD tests and the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the study population (β = 0.04; p = .03). As the cycle threshold value decreased, the sensitivity rate of the RAD tests increased (p < .001). After implementation of the PCT program, the prevalence of COVID-19 decreased from 8.4% to 3.3% (p < .001).ConclusionProactive community testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection using RAD tests could rapidly identify and quarantine the most infectious patients in the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak.

How Has the Nationwide Public Health Emergency of the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Older Chinese Adults' Health Literacy, Health Behaviors and Practices, and Social Connectedness? Qualitative Evidence From Urban China.

Older Chinese adults' daily lives have been affected significantly during the outbreak phase of the COVID-19 pandemic since January 2020. They were confronted with activity restrictions due to strict pandemic prevention. The older population also had to get accustomed to widely-used modern technologies in community management, such as health codes and WeChat groups. By late 2021, mainland China had reduced the prevalence of COVID-19, and people's daily lives had primarily returned to pre-pandemic normality. Under China's systematic health management during the pandemic, older Chinese adults' responses to this nationwide public health emergency may have influenced their health in the long run. However, it remains unclear what specific health changes or improvements have occurred. Such a void in the literature is worrying, given that older adults are at high health risks due to the pandemic which, might still be with humankind for a while. Thus, it is of necessity to explore and report their health changes after this official, large-scale health intervention. In this study, 17 adults aged 55 and above were recruited as interviewees. All interviewees reside in a community located in Q district, N city of the People's Republic of China. According to the findings, many interviewees now have better literacy in health risk prevention. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) play a significant role in getting access to health information. Specifically, television, WeChat chatting groups, and TikTok could be valuable information sources for older adults. As for the understanding and evaluation of health information, although older participants can distinguish COVID-19 rumors, they may sometimes feel confused about the underlying scientific logic. Regarding changes in health behaviors and practices, many older adults can integrate health information and knowledge into their daily lives. Additionally, although interviewees can keep important social connections, not all of them are familiar with using new ICTs, such as online chatting group, for social participation and engagement. The empirical evidence suggests that both the communities and the local governments can offer specific training programs to older residents for the sake of enhancing their health literacy, health behaviors and practices, and social connectedness during and after the pandemic.

Health and healthcare variables associated with Italy's excess mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: An ecological study

BackgroundHealthcare factors have strongly influenced the propagation of COVID-19. This study aims to examine whether excess mortality during the first phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy was associated with health, healthcare, demographic, and socioeconomic, provincial-level indicators. MethodsThis ecological study concerns the raw number of deaths reported from February 1 to April 30, 2020 and the mean number of deaths occurred during the same months from 2015 to 2019, per province. Information on socioeconomic factors and healthcare settings was extracted from updated databases on the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) website. A multivariate model and four multilevel models were constructed to test the association between excess mortality and the analysed indicators across 107 Italian provinces. ResultsThe hospitalization rate in long-term care wards and the cardiovascular disease mortality rate correlate positively with excess mortality (p <0.05), while higher densities of licensed physicians and of general practitioners are associated with lower excess mortality (p <0.05). After controlling for the COVID-19 cumulative incidence in each province, only the density of licensed physicians remains negatively associated with excess mortality (p <0.01). ConclusionSome health and healthcare variables (in particular, the density of physicians) are strongly associated with excess mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and should be targeted to increase the resilience of health systems.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Among Healthcare Workers in Iran: An Urgent Need for Early Identification and Management.

With the increasing rate of COVID-19, particularly in developing countries such as Iran, a high number of frontline service providers, including doctors and nurses, have died, making frontline healthcare workers (HCWs) more vulnerable to psychological disorders and fear and anxiety of secondary transmission to others, especially their family members. In this study, we aimed to report the incidence of COVID-19 infection among HCWs in an Iranian referral pediatrics hospital between April 2020 and July 2020. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, HCWs and hospital staff working at Children's Medical Center, Tehran, Iran, with positive SARS-CoV-2 real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results were evaluated between April 2020 and July 2020. Sixty-one out of the 1085 personnel (5.6%) including 14 pediatricians (23%), 24 nurses (39%), 9 paramedics (15%), and 14 HCWs without direct patient contact (23%) had a nasopharyngeal specimen positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test. The mean age was 39.8±10.6 years. Eleven cases (18%) had underlying diseases such as hypertension and asthma. The most common symptoms were fatigue (67%, n=41), dry cough (61%, n=37), fever (52%, n=32), headache (46%, n=28), dyspnea (43%, n=24), anosmia (28%, n=17), chills (26%, n=16), sore throat (26%, n=16), gastrointestinal symptoms (23%, n=14), and productive cough (3%, n=2). Eleven cases (18%) showed lung involvement in their chest X-rays and/or CT scans. Eighteen cases (29.5%) had lymphopenia, and 20 individuals (33%) had a high level of C-reactive protein. In conclusion, in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak, a substantial proportion of HCWs with fever, respiratory, and other prevalent symptoms including fatigue and headache were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, implementation of infection prevention measures, isolation of confirmed HCWs, disinfection of the environment, and regular COVID-19 prevention training for HCWs are strongly recommended for the wellbeing of health workers and minimizing the spread of infection.

Academic and Practice Experiences of Nursing Students During the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Aim: To explore undergraduate and graduate nursing students’ academic and employment experiences as they faced the first surge of the COVID-19 pandemic in New York. Background: Little is known about the pandemic’s impact on nursing students who were also providing patient care during the initial phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Many faced dramatically altered learning environments while also meeting the challenges of professional practice. Method: An electronic survey with an open-ended question was distributed to a convenience sample of students enrolled in a large public university; 194 responded. Data were collected from April through October of 2020. A thematic analysis was used to analyze the responses of 194 students. Results: Five themes illuminating students’ academic and practice experiences were revealed: battling the unknown, filling the void, education interrupted, experiencing moral distress, and taking an emotional toll. Severe mental anguish and emotional distress resulted from providing care during the pandemic. These perceptions may have long-term effects on professional role development, especially in novices and new graduates. Conclusion: Findings indicate a need for significant modifications in both academic and practice arenas. Faculty and clinical leaders must implement changes that will support student and staff preparedness during times of both normalcy and crisis.

COVID-19 epidemic and Chinese medical students: perception, emotions, attitudes, and conformity during domicile quarantine.

Students from Shantou University Medical College were subject to domicile quarantine during the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. We investigated their experience during March-April 2020 using a cross-sectional, self-administered, anonymous online survey. Out of 531 respondents, 75.7% became aware of the outbreak via the Internet (61.7%), WeChat (57.8%), and Weibo (49%). Nearly all students knew COVID-19 manifestations, incubation period, and transmission modes; about half considered wearing facemask and hand hygiene as effective epidemic interventions. They experienced various emotional reactions that changed significantly in response to the outbreak, lockdown, and quarantine (ps < 0.001), with depression in 23.3%. Most students (83.4%-99.4%) had positive attitudes and good compliance towards domicile quarantine and preventive measures. Females were significantly better than males in hand hygiene compliance (p = 0.04). More students with positive attitudes and good compliance than those without educated their families (ps < 0.05 - ps < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression showed negative relationships between anger and hand hygiene attitude (OR = 0.06, 95% CI = 0.01-0.87); confusion and quarantine compliance (0.30, 0.12-0.76); and anger and compliance with quarantine (0.32, 0.11-0.93), facemask (0.12, 0.03-0.50), and hand hygiene (0.27, 0.08-0.88). This study revealed how multichannel risk communication, early awareness, positive attitudes, and conformity of medical college students might have contributed to the favorable outcome from the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Clear, accurate, consistent, early risk communication by the local, national, and international public health authorities seems critical to promote public understanding, correct risk perception, and rational emotions and attitudes, leading to optimal conformity.

Impact of COVID-19 on adolescent travel behavior

IntroductionThe outbreak of COVID-19 has significantly impacted travel behavior. However, few studies have analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on adolescent travel behavior. This article analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on adolescent travel behavior using questionnaire survey data. MethodsThis paper first used confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to explore the psychological factors related to the adolescents' perceptions about the severity of COVID-19. The study then established a logit model to study the effects of COVID-19 in different phases (before, during, and after the epidemic peak), demographic characteristics, and the role of psychological factors on their travel behavior. ResultsThe results show that the phase of COVID-19 did not significantly impact the adolescents' choice of short-distance travel. The frequency of outings per week, the number of exercise sessions per week, and willingness to travel by public transportation decreased significantly in the outbreak phase. Meanwhile, the perception of the severity of COVID-19 significantly impacted adolescent travel behavior. ConclusionThis research demonstrates that COVID-19 has led adolescents to reduce their frequency of outings, and they try not to use public transportation. Adolescents appear to be traveling more cautiously in the outbreak phase and the post-epidemic phase.

The Psychological and Biological Impact of "In-Person" vs. "Virtual" Choir Singing in Children and Adolescents: A Pilot Study Before and After the Acute Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Austria.

Psychobiological responses to music have been examined previously in various naturalistic settings in adults. Choir singing seems to be associated with positive psychobiological outcomes in adults. However, evidence on the effectiveness of singing in children and adolescents is sparse. The COVID-19 outbreak is significantly affecting society now and in the future, including how individuals engage with music. The COVID-19 pandemic is occurring at a time when virtual participation in musical experiences such as singing in a virtual choir has become more prevalent. However, it remains unclear whether virtual singing leads to different responses in comparison with in-person singing. We evaluated the psychobiological effects of in-person choral singing (7 weeks, from January to March 2020, before the COVID-19 outbreak) in comparison with the effects of virtual choral singing (7 weeks, from May to July 2020, after schools partly re-opened in Austria) in a naturalistic pilot within-subject study. A group of children and young adolescents (N = 5, age range 10–13, female = 2) from a school in Salzburg, Austria were recruited to take part in the study. Subjective measures (momentary mood, stress) were taken pre- and post-singing sessions once a week. Additionally, salivary biomarkers (cortisol and alpha-amylase) and quantity of social contacts were assessed pre- and post-singing sessions every second week. Psychological stability, self-esteem, emotional competences, and chronic stress levels were measured at the beginning of in-person singing as well as at the beginning and the end of the virtual singing. We observed a positive impact on mood after both in-person and virtual singing. Over time, in-person singing showed a pre-post decrease in salivary cortisol, while virtual singing showed a moderate increase. Moreover, a greater reduction in stress, positive change in calmness, and higher values of social contacts could be observed for the in-person setting compared to the virtual one. In addition, we observed positive changes in psychological stability, maladaptive emotional competences, chronic stress levels, hair cortisol, self-contingency and quality of life. Our preliminary findings suggest that group singing may provide benefits for children and adolescents. In-person singing in particular seems to have a stronger psychobiological effect.

Analysis of the Impact of Interprovincial Migration on the First Wave of COVID-19 Transmission in China

In the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, the epidemic has spread rapidly due to interprovincial migration from Wuhan to Hubei province and to the rest of China. Based on Chinas interprovincial migration and outbreak data, this paper established panel models. The transmission of the first wave of COVID-19 of China can be divided into two stages: a phase of national outbreak caused by interprovincial migration and a phase of sustained development due to close contacts. Interprovincial migration triggered a nationwide outbreak that lasted until around 28 January 2020, about 5 days after the Wuhan lockdown. In this phase of transmission, the population inflow from Hubei province was more contagious than the inflow from other provinces. The results also show that the sum of the influence coefficients of interprovincial population inflow is less than 1, which means a state of convergence, indicating that “Wuhan lockdown” is an effective measure to cut off the spread of the epidemic by interprovincial migration.

Suicide trends in Norway during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. A register-based cohort study.

AbstractBackgroundThere is a concern that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to an increase in suicides. Several reports from the first months of the pandemic showed no increase in suicide rates while studies with longer observation times report contrasting results. In this study, we explore the suicide rates in Norway during the first year of the pandemic for the total population as well as for relevant subgroups such as sex, age, geographical areas, and pandemic phases.MethodsThis is a cohort study covering the entire Norwegian population between 2010 and 2020. The main outcome was age-standardized suicide rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) in 2020 according to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. This was compared with 95% prediction intervals (95% PI) based on the suicide rates between 2010 and 2019.ResultsIn 2020, there were 639 suicides in Norway corresponding to a rate of 12.1 per 100,000 (95% PI 10.2–14.4). There were no significant deviations from the predicted values for suicides in 2020 when analyzing age, sex, pandemic phase, or geographical area separately. We observed a trend toward a lower than predicted suicide rate among females (6.5, 95% PI 6.0–9.2), and during the two COVID-19 outbreak phases in 2020 (2.8, 95% PI 2.3–4.3 and 2.8, 95% CI 2.3–4.3).ConclusionThere is no indication that the COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in suicide rates in Norway in 2020.

Virus spreading and heat spreading

Here we propose a heat transfer framework for how human-to-human interaction spreads everything on the landscape: disease, goods, knowledge, news, technology, science, language and culture. We show that the phenomenon of “human spreading” shares key features with phenomena that are fundamental in physics (heat, electricity, species, Darcy fluid flow), which spread through continua. As example for discussion and illustration, we construct this theoretical framework by using the early phase of the coronavirus outbreak, from before May 2020. The human spreading phenomenon (S curve) is unveiled systematically by using a minimum of measurable parameters: the number of persons with whom one person comes in contact, the radial size of each step in the growth of the swept territory, the radial scale of the inhabited territory, and the directions in which infrastructure (e.g., air routes) are available for long and fast spreading. The resulting configuration of spreading is a multiscale assembly of clusters of fast channels embedded in interstices with slow diffusion. The configuration is dendritic, where each direction of long and fast spreading is covered by a finger of clusters, and each finger generates its own ramifications. The similarities between this configuration and the dendritic architectures for heat and fluid flow through heterogeneous media are discussed.

Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Analyses of countries with high incidence of cases/deaths in Africa

Exploring daily panel dataset spanning January 5, 2015 to January 28, 2021, we examine the reaction prowess of African stock markets to the different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak namely, pre–COVID period; epidemic period; and pandemic period. We show that irrespective of the different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak, South Africa ranked first as the country with the highest incidence of COVID-19 in Africa both in terms of number of confirmed cases and deaths. However, while Morocco and Tunisia ranked second and third in terms of the number of COVID-19 cases, it was Egypt that ranked second in terms of the number COVID-19 deaths. Employing a PMG –based panel–ARDL model, we offer evidence –based insights on the dynamic of stock markets during COVID-19. We show that number of confirmed cases rather than number deaths tend to be responsible for the declining stock returns in Africa during the pandemic phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Whereas, the evidence of declining stock returns during the epidemic phase of the COVID-19 appears to be mainly attributable to changes in the international oil prices and exchange rates, respectively. That said the effectiveness or otherwise of efforts at minimizing negative reaction of stock returns to COVID-19 cannot be in isolation of whether the emphasis is on the number of confirmed cases and/or the number of confirmed deaths.