Petroleum Consumption Research Articles

The Rise and Demise of Industrial Agriculture in North Korea

Abstract Scholars conventionally suggest one of three causes for North Korea’s agricultural collapse in the mid-1990s: overall economic decline, deficiencies in the socialist collective system, or environmental disaster. In contrast to these explanations, each of which characterizes the North Korean agricultural collapse as an idiosyncratic failure, this article shows that this crisis can be attributed to the unsustainable nature of modern industrial agriculture, which has been rooted in a thoroughgoing implementation of the worldwide modernization project of the past century. From its outset, North Korea’s industrial agricultural production growth was predicated on the high consumption of petroleum used to produce agricultural chemicals and provide energy for mechanization and irrigation. While North Korea achieved substantial agricultural success during the first three decades of its industrialization, its methods produced an unsustainable level of physical and environmental externalities. The subsequent decline of the Soviet Union meant that North Korea’s need for synthetic agro-inputs could no longer be met, a state of affairs that led to the collapse of the 1990s. This analysis shows that the uniqueness of North Korea’s agricultural collapse lies not in the industrial agricultural methods used, but rather in their extremity. With a variety of analyses that indicate declining oil production in a context of increasing demand for petroleum energy, the North Korean case has implications for agriculture that extend well beyond the Korean peninsula.

Economic Growth and Development: Towards a Catchup Model

We develop a model for economic growth applicable to a group of countries, constituting around half of the gross global production, that have been consistently “catching up” to the US since 1960 or so. This group can be termed “the convergence club.” The model has a theoretical basis developed in other publications (cited), but the present work is essentially empirical. It demonstrates that there is a very strong correlation between “catchup” growth, with respect to the US, and an energy proxy (EP). The energy proxy that works best is a linear combination of domestic electric power consumption petroleum (oil) consumption, per capita, compared to the US levels. The results presented here do not constitute a theory of growth, but they are consistent with theory presented elsewhere. On a practical level, we argue that consistent “catchup” trends over the past 40 years can safely be extrapolated for a few more decades for scenario construction purposes. We also believe that the observed catchup trends can be regarded as “potential” mid-term or long-term growth trajectories for transition economies and others that have recently been adversely affected by conflict or mismanagement.

Discussion/Reply of February 2007 Guest Editorial

Discussion Elmond L. Claridge, Pearland, Texas I am a retired researcher in the enhanced-oil-recovery field (recognized by SPE as a pioneer in that field) and was Director of the Master's Degree Program in Petroleum Engineering at the University of Houston during the 1980s. I was stimulated by the Guest Editorial in your February 2007 issue by Peter M. Jackson of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) to write you concerning both issues that he addressed and those he did not address that are related to the general subject of peak oil. In Jackson's article, he points out, as has been long known, that King Hubbert's curves for discovery and production of petroleum were based on inadequate data. It was apparent, with the discovery of the Prudhoe Bay resources plus research on methods of additional oil recovery, that his assumptions about the total initial oil in place and the fraction of this oil that could be recovered were too low. Instead of a peak in production in about 1970 as Hubbert predicted, Jackson now predicts that the peak can occur no sooner than 2030, and may well be later. Hubbert's database was too small, but the prediction of eventual exhaustion of the world's supply of produced crude oil, as he was first to point out, is still correct. In my Introduction to Petroleum Engineering classes at the University of Houston, I had students calculate a date of the catastrophic exhaustion of petroleum production, using as base data an estimate of 6 trillion bbl of initial oil in place, of which 35% (2.1 trillion) could be recovered by primary and secondary production, plus the known world population and its exponential growth rate, and the historical rate of growth of oil products consumption per person. They calculated exhaustion dates in the 2040s. Of course, as I pointed out to the students, exhaustion would not occur catastrophically; the consumption of petroleum would decrease gradually. First would come a decrease in consumption as fuel, followed by long-term use only as a source for chemicals (plastic articles including clothing, medicines, fertilizers, etc.). I see that Jackson's estimate of total possible production is 4.8 trillion bbl yet to be produced, plus 1.1 trillion already produced, for a total of 5.9 trillion, compared to the 2.1 trillion I used in the class exercise. But this approximately three-fold increase in future-plus-past-production (based on better data than I had available in the 1980s) has in recent years been accompanied by a probable large increase in the per-person consumption rate due to the recent rapid industrialization of China and India with their very large populations. If new estimates of an increase in the growth rate of population and of an increase in consumption per person were included in a new calculation of the catastrophic exhaustion date, it would be very interesting to see how much further in the future this date would be than my students' calculated value.

Energy and Transportation: A Case Study in China

The Chinese government has made a national priority of developing a sustainable, resource- and energy-efficient society. Because the transportation sector is a major energy consumer with significant opportunities for efficiency improvements, it can play a critical role in achieving this national priority. Here, we summarize current energy consumption patterns and describe one study to improve our understanding of the interactions and dependencies among available resources. We analyzed petroleum, coal, and electricity-based energy consumption data in China's transportation sector from 1990 to 2004.

Particulate Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Their Nitrated Derivatives in Three Cities in Liaoning Province, China

Airborne particulates were collected in nine size fractions by using Andersen low-volume air samplers in the cities of Shenyang, Fushun, and Tieling, Liaoning Province, in northeast China, during the period from July 2001 through December 2003. Nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and seven nitropolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (NPAHs) in the airborne particulates were determined. The mean concentrations of the sums of the nine PAHs and seven NPAHs were highest in Fushun, which is an industrial city, and lowest in Shenyang, which is a commercial city, although the consumption of petroleum and coal were largest in Shenyang. The nine fractions were grouped into three groups: > 7 μ m, 2.1–7 μ m and < 2.1 μ m. In each city, more than 50% of the total PAHs and total NPAHs were found in the fine particulate fraction (< 2.1 μ m). In each city, all PAHs and all NPAHs were clearly higher in winter than in summer. The concentration ratio of 1-nitropyrene to pyrene, which is a suitable indicator to identify diesel engine and coal combustion as proposed by our previous study, showed that the major contributors of PAHs and NPAHs in the airborne particulates were coal-combustion systems both in summer and winter in Fushun and Tieling. In Shenyang, atmospheric PAHs and NPAHs also seemed to be affected by coal combustion systems in winter, whereas gasoline engine vehicles seemed to be a major contributor in summer by the larger concentration ratio of 1-nitropyrene to pyrene. Cluster analysis and other diagnostic ratios such as benz[a]anthracene to chrysene, benzo[ghi]perylene to benzo[a]pyrene supported these results.

Bio-char refineries: an accessible approach for the development of biomass-based industry

Being a by-product of the well-established charcoal industry, slow pyrolysis bio-oil can be an excellent, cost-effective and renewable liquid fuel. However, even in Brazil, a country with a very clean energy profile and large-scale charcoal production, bio-oil is not properly utilised yet. A simple upgrade of traditional methods of charcoal production can significantly increase liquid fuel output. The concept of a bio-char-refinery, introduced in this paper, for production of charcoal, activated carbon, liquid fuel and variety of chemicals presents a possible approach for the development of biomass-based industry. Successful implementation of this concept could provide significant amounts of fuel and chemicals able to enhance economic development and reduce the consumption of petroleum derived products.

Using Global Positioning System Travel Data to Assess Real-World Energy Use of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have received considerable recent attention for their potential to reduce petroleum consumption significantly and quickly in the transportation sector. Analysis to aid the design of such vehicles and predict their real-world performance and fuel displacement must consider the driving patterns the vehicles will typically encounter. This paper goes beyond consideration of standardized certification cycless by leveraging state-of-the-art travel survey techniques that use Global Positioning System (GPS) technology to obtain a large set of real-world drive cycles from the surveyed vehicle fleet. This study specifically extracts 24-h, second-by-second driving profiles from a set of 227 GPS-instrumented vehicles in the St. Louis, Missouri, metropolitan area. The performance of midsize conventional, hybrid electric, and PHEV models is then simulated over the 227 full-day driving profiles to assess fuel consumption and operating characteristics of these vehicle technologies over a set of real-world usage patterns. In comparison to standard cycles used for certification procedures, the travel survey duty cycles include significantly more aggressive acceleration and deceleration events across the velocity spectrum, which affect vehicle operation and efficiency. Even under these more aggressive operating conditions, PHEVs using a blended charge-depleting energy management strategy consume less than 50% of the petroleum used by similar conventional vehicles. Although true prediction of the widespread real-world use of these vehicles requires expansion of the vehicle sample size and a refined accounting for the possible interaction of several variables with the sampled driving profiles, this study demonstrates a cutting-edge use of available GPS travel survey data to analyze the (highly drive cycle–dependent) performance of advanced technology PHEVs. This demonstration highlights new opportunities for using innovative GPS travel survey techniques and sophisticated vehicle system simulation tools to guide vehicle design improvements and to maximize the benefits offered by energy efficiency technologies.

Energy Use and Emissions from Marine Vessels: A Total Fuel Life Cycle Approach

Regional and global air pollution from marine transportation is a growing concern. In discerning the sources of such pollution, researchers have become interested in tracking where along the total fuel life cycle these emissions occur. In addition, new efforts to introduce alternative fuels in marine vessels have raised questions about the energy use and environmental impacts of such fuels. To address these issues, this paper presents the Total Energy & Emissions Analysis for Marine Systems (TEAMS) model. TEAMS can be used to analyze total fuel life cycle emissions and energy use from marine vessels. TEAMS captures “well-to-hull” emissions, that is, emissions along the entire fuel pathway, including extraction, processing, distribution, and use in vessels. TEAMS conducts analyses for six fuel pathways: (1) petroleum to residual oil, (2) petroleum to conventional diesel, (3) petroleum to low-sulfur diesel, (4) natural gas to compressed natural gas, (5) natural gas to Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and (6) soybeans to biodiesel. TEAMS calculates total fuel-cycle emissions of three greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane) and five criteria pollutants (volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters of 10 μm or less, and sulfur oxides). TEAMS also calculates total energy consumption, fossil fuel consumption, and petroleum consumption associated with each of its six fuel cycles. TEAMS can be used to study emissions from a variety of user-defined vessels. This paper presents TEAMS and provides example modeling results for three case studies using alternative fuels: a passenger ferry, a tanker vessel, and a container ship.

The Energy Policy Act of 1992 and Executive Order 13149: Proposed compliance strategies and process improvements for federal agencies

Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), 75 percent of Light Duty Vehicle acquisitions by federal agencies must be Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs). EPAct's intent was to reduce United States reliance on oil imports, with federal agencies assuming a leadership role in acquiring AFVs and using alternative fuel in those AFVs. Executive Order (E.O.) 13149, issued in 2000, required federal agencies to reduce petroleum consumption 20 percent relative to a 1999 baseline and use alternative fuels the majority of the time in their AFVs by 2005. Most federal agencies met the EPAct 75 percent acquisition requirement in 2004, however, most will not achieve the petroleum reduction and alternative fuel use requirements. Frequently, federal agencies acquire the relatively expensive AFVs and then fuel those vehicles with gasoline. Besides wasting taxpayer dollars, this approach does not meet the intent of EPAct. It was surmised that federal agencies lack an objective, quantitative methodology for AFV acquisitions and Executive Order 13149 compliance. Several types of optimization models were constructed, using the United States Navy as a test case, for models focusing on EPAct and/or E.O. 13149 compliance. Results of a tiered set of models indicate there are efficiencies that federal agencies could take advantage of when developing EPAct and E.O. 13149 compliance strategies that are not currently being exploited.

Energy conservation from systematic tire pressure regulation

The majority of US drivers do not consistently monitor the tire pressures in their vehicles. The 2000 TREAD Act, which requires automakers to gradually provide tire pressure monitoring systems for vehicles sold in the US will correct this problem for new vehicles. This law does not impact the problem in previously deployed vehicles, which have a turnover time of ∼20 years. A solution is provided here to address under-inflated tires on the current 220 million vehicles and the concomitant wasted energy due to increased rolling resistance in the US automobile fleet. This communication reports on a preliminary study of tire pressures in randomly chosen vehicles, which were undergoing oil changes at a combined retail/auto-care facility. The study indicates that substantial benefits would accrue if car care facilities systematically offered complimentary tire pressure checks with oil changes including: (i) increased safety by decreasing all crashes and saving more than 100 lives per year, (ii) reduced petroleum consumption by over a billion gallons/year, which would (iia) provide over $4 billion in economic savings for US consumers that could in part be recouped in retail/auto-care facilities, (iib) reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 13.5 million tons and automobile pollution and (iic) enhance national security.

Estimating Petroleum Exergy Production and Consumption Using a Simulated Annealing Approach

This study deals with the development of the petroleum exergy production and consumption relations in order to better analyze exergy values and predict the future projections using the simulated annealing (SA) approach, which is a powerful technique used to solve many optimization problems. The exergy estimation is performed based on the indicators of gross domestic product (GDP) and the percentage of vehicle ownership figures in Turkey, which is given as an illustrative example. The so-called SA exergy production and consumption (SAPEX) model is developed, while the exergy values obtained using the SAPEX model are also compared with those using the genetic algorithm (GA) approach. It is determined that the SAPEX model developed predicts the exergy values better than the GA model. It may be concluded that the models proposed here can be used as an alternative solution and estimation technique to available estimation techniques in predicting the future energy and exergy utilization values of countries. This study is also expected to give a new direction to engineers, scientists, and policy makers in implementing energy planning studies and in dictating the energy strategies as a potential tool.

Energy and Emission Benefits of Alternative Transportation Liquid Fuels Derived from Switchgrass: A Fuel Life Cycle Assessment

We conducted a mobility chains, or well-to-wheels (WTW), analysis to assess the energy and emission benefits of cellulosic biomass for the U.S. transportation sector in the years 2015-2030. We estimated the life-cycle energy consumption and emissions associated with biofuel production and use in light-duty vehicle (LDV) technologies by using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model. Analysis of biofuel production was based on ASPEN Plus model simulation of an advanced fermentation process to produce fuel ethanol/protein, a thermochemical process to produce Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) and dimethyl ether (DME), and a combined heat and power plant to co-produce steam and electricity. Our study revealed that cellulosic biofuels as E85 (mixture of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline by volume), FTD, and DME offer substantial savings in petroleum (66-93%) and fossil energy (65-88%) consumption on a per-mile basis. Decreased fossil fuel use translates to 82-87% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all unblended cellulosic biofuels. In urban areas, our study shows net reductions for almost all criteria pollutants, with the exception of carbon monoxide (unchanged), for each of the biofuel production option examined. Conventional and hybrid electric vehicles, when fueled with E85, could reduce total sulfur oxide (SO(x)) emissions to 39-43% of those generated by vehicles fueled with gasoline. By using bio-FTD and bio-DME in place of diesel, SO(x) emissions are reduced to 46-58% of those generated by diesel-fueled vehicles. Six different fuel production options were compared. This study strongly suggests that integrated heat and power co-generation by means of gas turbine combined cycle is a crucial factor in the energy savings and emission reductions.

A Review of the Energy Situation in Turkey

In this review paper general information about the energy situation of Turkey is outlined. The ongoing energy policy of the recent governments of Turkey is given and the regulations that are in place regarding energy are mentioned. Then, a summary about various energy sources such as oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, geothermal energy and wind energy etc. is given. Regarding oil, Turkey's petroleum production and consumption, reserves and refineries are described. Then, similar emphasis is made for coal and thermal-electric power plants. The total electricity transmission grid installed across the country is argued in terms of years and finally environmental concerns and privatization attempts about the energy situation are explained.

Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Global Perspective

Energy sources will play an important role in the world's future. Recently, environmental problems resulting from energy production, conversion, and utilization have caused increased public awareness in all sectors of the public, industry, and government in both developed and developing countries. States have played a leading role in protecting the environment by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. State emissions are significant on a global scale. Emissions of CO2 caused by human activity are generally considered the most important. Total world CO2 emissions from the consumption of petroleum, natural gas, and coal, and the flaring of natural gas increased from 5,892 million metric tons of carbon equivalent in 1992 to 6,568 million metric tons in 2001.

Introduction to this special section: India

This special section about India is of special relevance because providing affordable energy is a key requirement for economic development in our nation. Rapid urbanization and industrialization after India's independence led to a multifold increase in petroleum consumption and the demand for petroleum products continues to grow with no sign of abatement. Presently, India produces about 820 000 barrels of crude oil per day but consumes about 2 560 000 barrels per day. This means that India can produce only 30% of the petroleum products that it consumes. Similarly, gas production is about 29.4 billion m3 per day and we consume about 32.1 billion m3 per day, a total which is expected to increase many times. This indicates that there is a huge gap between the indigenous production and demand which is likely to increase in the years to come.

06/01548 What motivates membership in non-renewable resource cartels? The case of OPEC: Mason, C. F. and Polasky, S. Resource and Energy Economics, 2005, 27, (4), 321–342

In this paper, we analyze the question of membership in a non-renewable resource cartel, with specific application to OPEC. One would expect the benefits of cartel membership to be positively related to the size of remaining reserves, while domestic petroleum consumption should be negatively related to membership if countries care about consumer interests. Our econometric analysis indicates that larger reserves and lower consumption are positively associated with OPEC membership. On the other hand, membership does not appear to be systematically related to countries' religious makeup. Our regressions correctly predict membership for the vast majority of oil-producing countries.

Stockpiling to Contain OPEC

I maximize present valued world GDP over the stockpile of petroleum used to contain price shocks administered by OPEC. Long run price elasticity of demand and non-OPEC supply exceed those in the short run, so OPEC profits from sudden, as opposed to gradual, increases in price. These shocks damage the world economy. I simulate interaction among consumers, non-OPEC producers, a profit-maximizing, monolithic OPEC, and an International Energy Agency that punishes OPEC by releasing oil from stockpiles onto the market during upward shocks to price. A stockpile of 6 billion barrels would add much more to world GDP than the cost of holding it and the lost profits to OPEC under a range of assumptions, though private actors do not have incentive to maintain and use stocks to maximize GDP. Authority over stockpiles should be shielded from the influence of the energy industry, whose profits may not be maximized at oil prices that maximize GDP. Prices equal to marginal costs would be low into the 2030’s, then rise rapidly with costs. World consumption of petroleum reaches a peak of 67 bbl/yr in 2045, and declines quickly thereafter.

Correlation between energy usage and the rate of economic development

This paper reviews the correlation between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of different sources of energy for OPEC Member Countries, the G-7 and three Asian countries, both with and without natural logarithm. In addition, the paper estimates the ratios for total GDP and total energy consumption of different sources of energy and also estimates GDP energy consumption elasticities. The paper concludes that on a per capita basis most OPEC Countries exhibit negative and weak relationships for all forms of energy, including electricity. For the G-7 and Asian countries, this relationship is positive and strong, with the exception of oil for G-7 countries, where there is a weak correlation. Surprisingly, most OPEC Countries showed a comparatively strong and positive correlation when tested for total GDP in relation to total energy consumption of the respective energy sources. The relationship for the rest of the countries remains unchanged. Population might have distorted the results in OPEC Countries. These results suggest that one should be cautious when drawing conclusions and not ignore the aggregate comparison, as this could otherwise lead to wrong results. For G-7 countries, there has been a significant shift in the pattern of energy consumption in relation to GDP when comparing 1960–73 and 1973–2001. All adjusted downward in the later period. However, the greatest adjustment was associated with petroleum consumption. The general conclusion is that wealth creation in G-7 countries is directly associated with the efficient use of all forms of energy. In contrast, most OPEC Countries exhibit a weaker linkage between energy consumption and economic development on a per capita basis, probably due to inefficient usage of resources or due to disproportionate distribution of wealth and thus energy usage.

A Study of the Patterns of Production and Consumption of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products in the Sultanate of Oman

The patterns of production and consumption of crude oil and petroleum products in the Sultanate of Oman over the period of 1970–2000 are studied in this article. A graphical description of the patterns is first presented. Simple and more sophisticated econometric models are then employed to empirically examine the relationships between petroleum-related variables and other macroeconomic variables. The analysis shows many interesting features of the behavior of crude oil and petroleum products in the Sultanate of Oman, including the following: crude oil production remained relatively stagnant until the early 1980s, but started to rise more rapidly since then. The pattern of consumption of petroleum products in the year 2000 showed a very marked difference from the consumption patterns of 1970s. Gasoline consumption grew very rapidly in the Sultanate of Oman, with a high compound annual growth rate of nearly 13%. The consumption of Regular90 variety was relatively stagnant compared to the rapid increase in the consumption of Super97 variety. The vehicular population grew at a high rate of nearly 12% per annum during the last few decades. The empirical econometric analysis has shown that the gross domestic product (GDP) and crude oil prices of the current as well as the previous year have been significant variables influencing crude oil production of any given year. The GDP is strongly related to crude oil exports, total petroleum consumption, and gasoline consumption. However, prices are not highly significant. Crude production is highly correlated to natural gas production.

PUSH ON HILL FOR FUEL INDEPENDENCE

AMERICA'S RELIANCE ON IMported oil is receiving new attention on both sides of Capitol Hill Recently, birjartisangroups of lawmakers introduced legislation designed to curtail domestic petroleum consumption, particularly in the transportation sector, while increasing demand for renewable fuels and alternative technology vehicles. It's good common sense to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and it's doable in the near term, Sen. Sam Brownback (RKan.) remarked at a Nov. 15 press conference. This dependence limits our foreign policy and national security options, and there is broad public support for reducing oil consumption. We can create market incentives to use technologies available today to deal with a problem that will only get worse unless we take action. The Vehicle & Fuel Choices for American Security Act would set specific oil-saving targets to reduce U.S. dependence and require the mass production of automobiles that can run on any combination of gasoline and alternative fuels or, alternati...