Introduction: There is increasing evidence of the effects of long term exposure to air pollutants and mortality, especially related to cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the association between long term exposure to low concentrations of fine particulates (PM2.5) and nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx) and all-cause mortality as well as stroke-specific mortality and morbidity. Method: We used data from the Health in Men Study (HIMS), a cohort of12,201 elderly men aged 65 years and above, who lived in Perth Metropolitan Area and were followed from 1996 to 2012. Estimation of long term exposure to PM2.5, NO2 and NOx at each participant’s home address was based on land use regression models. The hazard ratios (HR)s and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the impact of the pollutants and health outcomes were estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression models. Results: The annual average concentrations of PM2.5 was 4.7µg/m3, NO2 11.3µg/m3 and NOx 23.4 µg/m3. There were 6,344 deaths from all causes, 405 deaths from stroke, and 2134 of study participants developed stroke during the follow up. The preliminary analyses indicate the following results: for all causes mortality, the hazard ratio associated with a 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure was 1.05 (95%CI 0.99 – 1.11). Similar associations were found for NO2 and NOx with HR of 1.05 (95%CI 1.02 – 1.09) and 1.03(95%CI 1.01 – 1.04), respectively. The hazard ratio for stroke mortality associated with every 5 µg/m3 increase in the concentrations of PM2.5 was HR:1.05 (95%CI 0.95 – 1.16), for NO2 HR:1.01 (95%CI 0.96 – 1.07) and for NOx HR:1.01 (95%CI 0.98 – 1.03). Similar associations were observed between stroke incidence with all air pollutants. Conclusions: Long term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and NOx may increase the risk of all-cause mortality and stroke-causes mortality and morbidity in Perth even at low concentrations.
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