Personal Remittances Research Articles

Interactive effect of exchange rates with remittance on informal remittance channel: a dynamic analysis

Purpose- It has been commonly observed that remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries surpassed overseas development assistance. It is also often noted that the sums remitted through formal channels represent only a fraction of total remittances: a large though unknown amount of funds finds its way to families in migrants’ areas of origin through informal channels. In Nigeria for instance, there is high prevalence of informality and the country currently has multiple exchange rates and adopts the managed floating exchange rate system. The objective of this paper is to examine whether multiple exchange rate has been an incentive for the popularity of unsafe informal channels in the remittance ecosystem of Nigeria. In order to achieve the objective, this study examines the interactive effect of exchange rate with remittance on informal remittance channels in Nigeria. Methodology- Annual time series data were employed for the study. The data spanned the period 2004 to 2020 and were sourced from Index Mundi.com and the Global Economy.com. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to analyze the data. Findings- The interactive term i.e., LOGOEXC*LOGREMR (official exchange rate * personal remittances received) has positive and significant influence on informal remittance channel only in the short run. Conclusion- Exchange rate has been an incentive for the popularity of unsafe informal channels in the remittance system of Nigeria. The implication is that government must carry out exchange rate reforms, including a unified market-clearing rate that reduces the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates which would enhance sending remittances through formal channels. Keywords: Exchange rates, remittance, commercial banks, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), Nigeria. JEL Codes: B26, C51 F31

Remittance Flows and Health Outcomes in Nigeria: Implication for Economic Growth

Remittance flows have usually been channelled to the improvement of health outcomes among its recipients in different countries of the world. Its implication for the overall wellbeing of the people and growth of the economy has been tremendous. This study therefore examined remittance flows and health outcomes in Nigeria and its implication for economic growth. Using time series data set from 1980 to 2019, VAR-granger causality approach, and VAR-impulse response function method, it was found that personal remittances granger causes out-of-pocket health expenditure. The results of the VAR-impulse response function indicated that shocks to life expectancy exert positive significant impact on economic growth. Similarly, shocks to mortality rate have positive significant influence on economic growth. However, shocks to personal remittances exert significant negative impact on the Nigerian economic growth. Policies that support the free flow of remittances should be put in place by the government. Again, households should use their remittance receipts largely on expenditures that promote their health and well-being.

Linking personal remittance and fossil fuels energy consumption to environmental degradation: evidence from all SAARC countries

Linking personal remittance and fossil fuels energy consumption to environmental degradation: evidence from all SAARC countries

Foreign Inflows and Existence of Dutch Disease: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

This paper tries to evaluate the economic importance of foreign inflows in determining the real effective exchange rate. Monetary policy plays a substantial role in determining the stability of prices, trade and foreign inflows like foreign direct investment, personal remittances, and foreign aid. In this study, the causal relationship is analyzed among policy variables and control variables. The study used secondary time series data from 1960-to 2020. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) unit root tests are used to check the stationary of the variables. Results showed that all variables are stationary at the level I (0) and the first difference I (1). The auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach and Granger Causality approach is discussed to find cointegration and causality respectively. ARDL Bound test reveals the cointegration existence among the variables. ARDL results suggest that foreign inflows (Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Aid, Personal Remittances), Trade and Inflation showed a significant relationship with Real Effective Exchange Rate in the long run. Granger Causality suggested the existence of Causality among Foreign Aid and Real Effective Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Aid, Trade and Remittances. The results of the study are found in contradiction with the law of one price.

Discovering the Socio-Economic, and Environmental factors of Health Expenditure: Case Study of Regions

The aim of the current study is to reduce the burden of the government’s spending on health expenditure and also determine the factors which contribute to health spending. For the present examination, the data was collected from World Bank, covering the time span from 2000 to 2016 for regions i.e., East Asia & Pacific (EA&PR), Europe & Central Asia (E&CAR), Middle East & North Africa (ME&NAR), South Asia (SAR), and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSAR). The key goal of this work is to examine the important macroeconomics determinants of health expenditure (MDHE). The outcome of the study is concluded that all the determinants have significantly influenced the health expenditures across the regions. Moreover, the CO2 emission, personal remittances, urbanization, unemployment, and crude birth rate have a twin impact on well-being spending. Whereas trade openness and gross domestic product have an important and adverse impact on health expenditure, literacy, life expectancy at birth, and population age 65 and above have a significant positive impact on health expenditure.

Do foreign inflows contribute to Economic Growth of India: An Investigation using ARDL Approach?

The study analyses the association between various kinds of foreign inflows and India's economic growth using yearly data from the World Bank from 1975 to 2019. The ADF test was applied to check the incidence of integrating effects in the data, and the ARDL model estimates long and short-run relationships. The results approved a long-run association between external inflow and economic growth in India. ARDL test results suggested that foreign inflows play a vital role in enhancing economic growth. The influence of FDI and foreign aid on economic growth was positive and substantial in the long and short run. The results suggested that personal remittance and external debt negatively influenced the growth of the economy in the long and short run.

Human Capital Development, Remittances, and Poverty in Central and Eastern European Countries: What Do the Data Tell Us?

The study investigates the impact of human capital development on poverty in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) using dynamic generalized methods of moments (GMM), fixed effects, random effects, and pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) with panel data ranging from 2008 to 2019. Using the same panel data analysis methods and data set, the study also explored the influence of the complementarity between human capital development and personal remittances on poverty in CEECs. What triggered the investigation into this topic is that the available literature on the subject matter is mixed, divergent, and very much conflicting. The lag of poverty, remittances, the interaction between human capital development and remittances, trade openness, unemployment, and partly financial development significantly increased infant mortality rates in CEECs. On the other hand, human capital development, infrastructural development, and partly financial development were found to have reduced infant mortality rates. These results mean that human capital development, financial development, and infrastructural development reduced poverty in CEECs during the period under study. Central and Eastern European Countries are therefore urged to craft and implement financial development, infrastructural development, and human capital development enhancement policies to combat poverty. Future empirical research could also investigate at what threshold the level of human capital development, financial and infrastructural development would poverty be significantly reduced in CEECs.

DYNAMIC MODELLING OF THE INFLUENCE OF DIASPORA CASH REMITTANCE ON MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN NIGERIA

<p>Remittance flows into low-income and fragile states represent a lifeline that supports households as well as provides much-needed tax revenue (IMF - Sayeh & Ralp Chami; 2021).<strong> Purpose</strong>: on the basis of this record, the study sought to examine the dynamic modelling of the influence of diaspora cash remittance as measured by Personal Remittances Received (PRR); Exchange Rate (EXCHR); and Outward Remittances Flows (ORF) on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria as measured by Unemployment Rate (UNEMPR) and Gross Domestic Product per capita growth (GDPpcgr) using quarterly time-series data sourced from World Bank and World Development Indicators for the periods 2010Q1-2020Q4.<strong> Technique/Approach</strong>: the study was disintegrated to apply Engle-Granger two-step method of error correction model (ECM) together with Granger Causality test to analyse the causal effect of Personal Remittances Received; Exchange Rate; Outward Remittances Flows on Unemployment Rate, as well as, utilize vector autoregressive (VAR) technique to investigate the dynamic influence of Personal Remittances Received; Exchange Rate and Outward Remittances Flows on gross domestic product per capita growth.<strong> Findings</strong>: the result of Granger Causality test upheld the hypothesis of PRR does not involve Granger causality of UNEMPR and the hypothesis that UNEMPR does not involve Granger causality of PRR. However, unidirectional causality runs from EXCHR to UNEMPR; as well as, from ORF to UNEMPR. The result of the error correction model (ECM) demonstrated that personal remittances received and exchange rate have insignificant and significant short-term and long-term effects on increasing the rate of unemployment. Whereas, outward remittances flow significantly minimized the rate of unemployment. More so, the results of the vector autoregressive (VAR) technique portrayed that the past realization of GDPpcgr was associated with a significant increase of 0.84 percent in GDPpcgr. Whilst, the past realization of Personal Remittances Received and outward remittances flows were related to an insignificant increase in GDPpcgr respectively; also, the past realization of exchange rate retarded the GDPpcgr. Furthermore, variance decomposition forecast of 4-period horizon reported that 100 percent of deviation in GDPpcgr is explicated by GDPpcgr in the short-term, indicating that personal remittances received, exchange rate, and outward remittances flows had no strong exogenous influence on predicting GDPpcgr in the future. Whereas, in the long-term forecasted error in GDPpcgr produced about 97.57 percent; while, Personal Remittances Received, exchange rate and outward remittances flow had a weak influence on predicting GDPpcgr in the future.<strong> Concluding Remark</strong>: the study concluded that it is an imperative for policy makers to design more policy measures that will encourage, facilitate a smooth and efficient inflow of cash remittance from abroad into the country so as to stabilize the economy.</p><p> </p><p><strong>JEL: </strong>E01; E20; E24<strong></strong></p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu_01/0965/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Impact of Macroeconomic and social Factors on Economic Growth: Moderating role of Belt and Road Initiative

The primary purpose of this study is to investigate how the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) affects the relationship between macroeconomic and social factors (i.e., foreign direct investment (FDI), lending rate, inflation, personal remittances, and secondary school education) and gross domestic product (GDP). We have collected the data from the World Bank from 1990 to 2019 (n=870, countries=23). The study has used statistical techniques such as regression analysis and hierarchical regression. The study found that macroeconomic and social factors (i.e., foreign direct investment (FDI), lending rates, inflation rates, personal remittance, and Secondary School Education) affect GDP. We also found that BRI moderates the association between macroeconomic and social factors with GDP. We have collected the data from the countries that have become the BRI partners by 2016. Future studies may consider using the data that have joined BRI after 2016.

Do personal remittances cause environmental pollution? Evidence from the top eight remittance-receiving countries.

This study aims to examine the asymmetric impact of personal remittances on environmental pollution with financial development (FD) as an explanatory variable. It utilizes annual panel data on the top eight remittance-receiving countries and employs panel generalized least square (GLS) method, pooled mean group (PMG) model, and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H) panel causality test to realize the objective. The GLS estimation reveals that both the positive and negative components of remittances mitigate CO2 emission in the long run, while FD increases the pollution level. The PMG estimation also provides similar results and validates the robustness of the GLS model estimation outcomes. The D-H causality test provides several unidirectional and one bidirectional causality. FD causes environmental quality. There is a feedback relationship between the positive component of remittances and environmental pollution, while there is one-way causation from the negative component of remittances to CO2 emissions. Both positive and negative shocks of remittances cause FD, and positive shock of remittances causes that of negative shocks. The outcomes suggest that the policymakers may formulate agreeable rules and incentives for the financial institutions to finance environmental-friendly economic projects and production processes and channel the personal remittances through banking channels to mitigate CO2 emissions.

An Economic Analysis of Interest Rate Spread in the Commercial Bank of Bangladesh

This study aims to present the discussion on the Interest Rate Spread (IRS) of the commercial banks in Bangladesh perspective. This paper also explains the interest rate spread in the commercial banks of Bangladesh using time series data of 60 banks covering the period of 1976 to 2020. The analysis shows that the higher the non-interest income as a ratio of total assets of a bank, the lower its spread. In this study, I tried to show the relationship among the lending interest rate with broad money, inflation, quasi money, official exchange rate, and personal remittance. Variables are using time series data. Here I used some proxy data of Bangladesh Bank based on the time series data from 1976-2020 periods from world development indicator and also collected data from various publications of Bangladesh Bank and other relative sources. In this paper, I used different statistical tools such as bar graph, pie chart, line bar, column, area, etc. The analyze the money supply and its effect on the interest rate spread in Bangladesh and analyze the official exchange rate and trend on interest rate spread. Here shows the efficiency of the commercial banking sector and hence the economic growth and development of Bangladesh.

Assessing the effects of fuel energy consumption, foreign direct investment and GDP on CO2 emission: New data science evidence from Europe & Central Asia

Environmentalists and scientists are agreed that the rapid growth of the global economy and human activities has become the reason for the environmental deterioration. The typical energy resources like fossil fuels are considered ecological devastation factors. This research investigates the relationship between a sustainable environment and economic growth in the European and Central Asian Countries by using yearly data series from 1971 to 2016. The ARDL approach is used to determine the short and long-run relationship among the selected set of variables. The CO2 emission represents environmental sustainability while energy consumption, personal remittances, GDP, and FDI are independent variables and archetypal of economic growth. The CO2 emission is the Granger cause of GDP while energy consumption and FDI Granger cause CO2 emission. The results confirm long and short-run relationships among variables. Conclusively, a significant negative relationship for the long run and a positive relationship for the short-run between CO2 emission and GDP authorizes the worsening of environmental sustainability is because of economic growth for a longer term. By analyzing data series and determining their impact on the environment, this research suggested that the adaptation of the green resource is necessary for the individual sector of the economy sooner rather than later to maintain the environment for the living being. This research will be a healthy contribution to the discussion of green growth and help policymakers establish the normative ground for economic sectors to contribute to environmental sustainability.

An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Ethiopia Using an Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model Approach

Between 1980 and 2020, the study looks at “An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Ethiopia Using an Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model Approach.” The appraisal coefficient of population growth (POP) and the implication is positive and significant, according to the findings of this study. However, in response to the long‐term association between population expansion and economic growth in Ethiopia, the macroeconomic variables were subjected to a limit test and a broader causality test. From the finding of bound test, since the value of F‐statics is greater than the upper boundary line, there are long run equilibrium relationships among RGDP, population size, foreign direct investment, personal remittance, population growth rate, rate of inflation, and gross capital formation. According to the findings of the Granger causality test, real gross domestic product can cause Ethiopian population size (POP), but population number (POP) cannot cause real gross domestic product at the same time. The motivation of doing this research was to know the sign and effects of population growth on economic growth. Finally, in order to boost Ethiopia’s economic growth, the government should implement policies that would attract foreign investors. The government should also establish a benchmark to ensure that the economy increases faster than the population.

A Proposal for Capitalization of Remittances in Nepal

Inflow of personal remittances has exceeded 20 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Nepal for several years. Compared to foreign direct investment (FDI) or foreign aid (grants & loans), the money injected to the economy of Nepal through remittances is markedly larger. Huge investment in the real estate sector and large sums of money applied for share subscription indicate the need and opportunities of channelizing remittances in the infrastructure development and productive sector. However, most studies on remittances are focused on the ex-post analysis of the economy and few studies focus on the planning and policy issues aimed to utilize remittances. This paper reviews literature on utilizing remittance money and analyzes the prospects of capitalizing remittances in Nepal. A conceptual model is proposed on utilizing remittance money for infrastructure development. The proposed model of a remittance investment trust aims to synergize the three best attributes of the three domains of stakeholders, namely, abundant remittance money of the people, excellent management skills of the private sector, and the superior public trust to the government. Remittance money can serve as a great investment vehicle for executing properly investigated and attractive infrastructure projects. As estimated for Lumbini province, the remittance investment trust may contribute to fulfill 20% of the deficit of investment towards achieving the sustainable development goals. While the model is proposed for a province, it is expected to be replicable to the national and sub-national governments in Nepal.

A Long-Term Polydromic Function to Disentangle Personal Remittance, Migration and Employment in Agriculture in Order to Raise the GDP of the Donor aid Ratio in Five African Countries

Economic statistics concerning the quinquennial features of Agriculture employment (A), net Migration (M), Donor aid (D) and Personal remittances (P), available for over forty years from five West African countries have here been related to the GDP (G). The overall results of a multilinear regression (R2 0.84) have confirmed that the GD ratio, which is an index of aid efficiency, is significantly and positively driven by the PD ratio (high P and low D - favorable) and the PA ratio (high P and low A - favorable), but negatively driven by the PG ratio ( a higher D efficiency is obtained for constant G and lower P). A higher migration flux corresponds to a non-significant rise in the GD ratio. The five countries are clustered, by means of a principal component analysis, into three types. Partial least square regressions fitted to the GD ratio within each cluster provide a long-term polydromic function that highlights certain particular cluster features: reactive to forcing factors, such as Donor diminutions (SEN), active, as driven by Personal remittance (MLI), and mostly entropic for GMB, GNB and MRT. The learnt from the database is that Donor variations may follow different evolutions of the GD ratio in the three clusters.

Do personal remittances influence economic growth in South Asia? A panel analysis

AbstractThis paper investigates the remittance and economic growth relationship using annual panel data for the period 1986–2019 on selected South Asian economies with trade openness (TOP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow as control variables. The cross‐sectional dependency test, second‐generation panel unit root test, panel generalized least square (GLS), panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and Dumitrescu–Hurlin (D–H) panel causality tests are employed to accomplish the study. Both the GLS and FMOLS estimations ensure the positive impact of remittance on economic growth. The D–H causality test discloses unidirectional causality from remittances to economic growth. The findings suggest that South Asian economies may strive to attract more remittances, through augmenting international migration, enabling migration‐friendly policy and regimes, creating training and support facilities at different levels for international migrants, diversifying exports, and being selective to FDI inflows, which will take care of economic growth in the region.

Funding health in developing countries: foreign aid, FDI, or personal remittances?

PurposeThis paper presents three models of funding health care in 130 developing countries, based upon a public system, a private system and personal remittances.Design/methodology/approachThe authors trace the funding of health from foreign aid to health funding and health outcomes in the public system, foreign direct investment to health funding in the private system, and personal remittances to health outcomes. This is followed by panel data, fixed effects models subjected to 2-, 3- and 4-stage least squares regressions.FindingsFindings from the first model were that aid in the form of Technical Cooperation Grants funded Infrastructure. Infrastructure Spending due to aid funds Government Health Plans, which reduced the Incidence of Tuberculosis, which in turn reduced Undernourishment and increases Life Expectancy. Other positive health outcomes included reduced Birth Rate and reduced Maternal Mortality. In the second model, Foreign Direct Investment increased Female Employment and GDP per Person, funding Private Health Plans, which increase Life Expectancy, reduced Undernourishment, increased Skilled Care at Birth, increased the Number of Hospital Beds, reduced Maternal Mortality and increased the Birth Rate. In the third model, Remittances influenced both Out-of-Pocket Medical Expenses and Private Plans.Social implicationsPublicly funded programs may be directed to nutrition, increasing life expectancy. Private funding may be directed to improving maternal conditions, with remittances removing the liquidity constraints.Originality/valueThis paper is the first attempt to trace health funding from its sources of foreign aid, foreign direct investment and personal remittances using three separate paths.

Determinants of health expenditure from global perspective: A panel data analysis

A prominent enhancement in health expenditure is a severe apprehension for the whole world because of the increasing cost of health. Consideration of various aspects that are playing role in the increase of health expenditure need to be considered. Health is one of the significant parts of the world, therefore, improvement in health status has become the main objective of the nations and a top leading goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The main goal of the present study is to investigate the worldwide, and income-based categorized countries (developed, developing, and transitional countries) macroeconomic determinants of health expenditure. The aim is to estimate the health expenditures, and its impact on demographic, economic, and environmental determinants. For the empirical analysis, the data was retrieved from the World Bank, covering the time span 2000-2016 for developed, developing, and transitional countries. The results of the study concluded that macroeconomic variables significantly affect health expenditures. Moreover, personal remittances have a dual effect on health expenditure, i.e. a positive impact on transitional economies, while a negative impact on developing economies. In the same way, CO2 emission has a negative impact on worldwide, developed countries.

БРИКС и партнерство в интересах устойчивого развития: перспективы расширения торговли с наименее развитыми странами

The informal BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is actively working to solve the most acute global problems. This is why opportunities for implementing the sustainable development goals (SDGs) at BRICS summits is a topic for urgent research. This article discusses the prospects for achieving SDG 17.11 by the least developed countries (LDCs) in the framework of mutual trade with BRICS. SDG 17.11, unlike other goals, was expected to be achieved in 2020, but World Trade Organization (WTO) estimates for 2018 showed that progress was too slow. Against the sharp drop in international trade in 2020 due to economic shutdowns, the implementation of this goal is especially high on the agenda. This article describes the current implementation of the SDG by BRICS. A general analysis of mutual trade between LDCs and BRICS shows the low involvement of least developed countries in trade with BRICS. The methodology for the study involves computations of two trade indices and the identification of new clusters of LDCs. The export propensity index and trade intensity index are calculated in order to identify the countries with the most promise to increase exports to BRICS. The authors selected 13 LDCs with prospects for trade development with BRICS—Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Bangladesh, Guinea, Mauritania, Nepal, Tanzania, Zambia, Bhutan, Lesotho, Malawi and Solomon Islands. Among 34 other LDCs, the authors identify five clusters based on their economic structure, including the role played in their economies by official development assistance (ODA) and personal remittances. Clustering allows BRICS to provide targeted support to LDCs in order to increase their export potential through the most effective mechanisms for each economy.

Effects of remittance's inflow and measuring the impact of remittances on GDP per capita growth: Application of ARCH/GARCH and logit model

This research aims to explore the dynamics of remittances and their volatility, applying the ARCH/GARCH model in the countries of the Balkans (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Croatia and Albania). Furthermore, the comparative aspect of remittance’s effect on the probability of GDP per capita growth using ML Logit Binary model within these countries including Serbia as well was also investigated. UN and World Bank annual aggregate data on personal remittances inflow as % of GDP and GDP per capita from 1998-2019 were used. The volatility spillover within the countries can be noticed. It means that remittance’s inflow volatility in these countries is influenced by its own ARCH and GARCH factors or own shocks. The separate results from Logit models show that the probability of GDP per capita growth as a function of remittances for the period (1998-2019 and 2007-2019 for Serbia) has been under positive significant effect only for Albania at 5% level and for Bosnia and Herzegovina at 10% level.