Persistent Trend Research Articles

County-level total factor productivity of food in China and its spatio-temporal evolution and drivers

In the context of the ongoing process of high-quality development in the new era, which is focused on improving total factor productivity, it is of great importance to explore the spatial and temporal variations of total factor productivity growth and its driving factors in China’s county regions’ grain cultivation industry. This paper employs a three-stage DEA-Malmquist productivity method, the Gini coefficient method, and a panel fixed-effects model to analyze data from Chinese counties between 2009 and 2019. The analysis indicates that the growth of county food total factor productivity (FTFP) exhibits a fluctuating upward trend during the examination period, with an average annual growth rate of 2.43%. This is primarily driven by technological progress, yet the core driving role of technological efficiency is not effectively played. The average annual growth rate of county FTFP varies across different regions. The highest average annual growth rate of county FTFP in the eastern region and the primary grain-producing area is 2.75 and 3.04%, respectively. The lowest growth rates were observed in the western region and the main grain marketing area, at 1.44 and 1.23%, respectively. Secondly, the Gini coefficient of county FTFP continues to demonstrate a persistent upward trend during the examination period, with an average annual growth rate of 14.729%. The primary factor contributing to the observed variation in total factor productivity growth of the food sector at the regional level is the existence of disparate technological progress. Thirdly, there is a notable positive correlation between county financial deepening and financial self-sufficiency rates and county FTFP growth, with impact coefficients of 0.0503 and 0.0924, respectively. Conversely, county population density, degree of economic development, farmers’ income level, and industrial structure exert a significant negative influence on county FTFP growth and technological progress.

Sparseness-constrained nonnegative tensor factorization for detecting topics at different time scales

Temporal text data, such as news articles or Twitter feeds, often comprises a mixture of long-lasting trends and transient topics. Effective topic modeling strategies should detect both types and clearly locate them in time. We first demonstrate that nonnegative CANDECOMP/PARAFAC decomposition (NCPD) can automatically identify topics of variable persistence. We then introduce sparseness-constrained NCPD (S-NCPD) and its online variant to control the duration of the detected topics more effectively and efficiently, along with theoretical analysis of the proposed algorithms. Through an extensive study on both semi-synthetic and real-world datasets, we find that our S-NCPD and its online variant can identify both short- and long-lasting temporal topics in a quantifiable and controlled manner, which traditional topic modeling methods are unable to achieve. Additionally, the online variant of S-NCPD shows a faster reduction in reconstruction error and results in more coherent topics compared to S-NCPD, thus achieving both computational efficiency and quality of the resulting topics. Our findings indicate that S-NCPD and its online variant are effective tools for detecting and controlling the duration of topics in temporal text data, providing valuable insights into both persistent and transient trends.

Temporal dynamics of socioeconomic inequalities in depressive and anxiety symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.

The existence of socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of symptoms of depression and anxiety is widely acknowledged, and individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds tend to exhibit higher rates of symptoms. However, the direction in which the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced these disparities remains uncertain. We therefore aimed to systematically outline the available evidence on the temporal dynamics of socioeconomic inequalities in symptoms related to depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic across high-income countries. A scoping review was conducted by searching the databases Embase, Scopus and PsycINFO. According to pre-defined eligibility criteria, two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts as well as full texts of the compiled records. Data from the included studies were extracted using a standardised data-extraction form and analysed numerically and narratively. The scoping review followed the PRISMA-ScR guidelines. A total of 49 studies comprising 149 analyses of socioeconomic indicators in relation to symptoms of depression and anxiety were included. Despite heterogeneous study designs and results, there was a tendency of increasing (40.9%; n = 61) or persistent (38.2%; n = 57) inequality trends to the detriment of those in socially more disadvantaged positions. Increasing inequalities were most pronounced when income was used as a socioeconomic indicator. Groups with lower socioeconomic status appeared most vulnerable in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Throughout the pandemic, dynamics were diverse, with persistent trends most frequently reported. Overall, to the detriment of those with lower socioeconomic status, mental-health inequalities persisted or increased in most analyses. Continually monitoring socioeconomic inequalities over time is crucial, since this makes it possible to adapt prevention and intervention strategies to specific pandemic phases. Interventions targeting job security, income security and educational attainment could reduce mental-health inequalities. The results can contribute to preparedness plans for future pandemics and crises.

Trend inflation and exchange rate dynamics: A new Keynesian approach

This study examines the exchange rate implications of trend inflation within a two-country New Keynesian (NK) model. An NK Phillips curve generalized by trend inflation makes the inflation differential smoother, more persistent, and less sensitive to the real exchange rate. A Bayesian analysis with post-Bretton Woods data for Canada and the U.S. shows that the model's equilibrium, which relies on Taylor rules with a persistent trend inflation shock and strong policy inertia, mimics empirical regularities in exchange rates that are difficult to reconcile within a standard NK model. Trend inflation helps explain the empirical puzzles of the exchange rate dynamics.

Trends in dupilumab persistence among patients with chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps.

Background: Establishing effective treatment algorithms for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) remains challenging, particularly concerning biologic therapies' discontinuation rates. Limited real-world data exist on the persistence of dupilumab, a biologic used in CRSwNP. We conducted a large-scale claims-based analysis to compare dupilumab discontinuation rates. Methodology: Utilizing the IBM MarketScan® Research Database, we identified CRS patients treated with dupilumab from July 2019 to December 2021. We assessed drug discontinuation rates, comorbidities, demographics, and surgical history using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of 1718 CRS patients on dupilumab, median age at initiation was 45 years, with 44% male. Dupilumab persistence varied by comorbidity, with patients with comorbid asthma exhibiting the longest median usage (652 days). Statistically significant differences in drug persistence were observed among comorbid conditions (p<0.001). Younger patients (<50 years) had higher discontinuation rates (p<0.001). Conclusions: Our study reveals that many CRS patients without comorbidities discontinue dupilumab within the first year, with a median duration of 366 days. Age and comorbidities significantly influence dupilumab persistence. These findings aid clinicians in counseling CRS patients and underscore the need for further research to optimize treatment strategies.

Precipitation-induced abrupt decrease of Siberian wildfire in summer 2022 under continued warming

Wildfires in Northeast (NE) Siberia have become more frequent owing to the warming climate, exerting a profound impact on the global carbon cycle. While an increase in global temperature is recognized as a primary driver of unprecedented wildfires, the role of precipitation during wildfire season is relatively unexplored. Here, we present evidence that an increase in summer precipitation led to a sudden decrease in NE Siberian wildfires, especially in 2022, notwithstanding the persistent warming trend in the northern high latitudes. The interannual variability of summer precipitation, linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, known as the Scandinavia (SCAND) pattern, significantly impacts the regulation of wildfires. Climate models project enhanced variability in summer precipitation, potentially amplifying year-to-year fluctuations in wildfire occurrences. The interplay between the temperature and precipitation patterns in NE Siberia under ongoing warming may increase the occurrence of extreme wildfires, leading to a substantial release of carbon and further contributing to climate warming.

Retrospective analysis of the structure of closed-eye injuries in children

AIM: This study aimed to analyze retrospectively the status of closed-eye injuries in children based on clinic data of the Tashkent Pediatric Medical Institute (TashPMI) from 2018 to 2022. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study analyzed TashPMI clinic’s reporting records for 2018–2022. RESULTS: During the reporting period, 5,938 patients with various diseases of the eye and its appendages were treated. Of these, 1,438 (24.2%) patients were diagnosed with eye traumas and their complications. Among complications of closed eye injury, retinal detachment and traumatic cataracts accounted for 8.3% and 7.5%, respectively. Closed eye injury were more common among boys (57.2%) aged 5–14 years (64.4%). From 2018 to 2022, the number of patients with post-contusion retinal detachment declined, despite a persistent upward trend in the number of hospitalized patients with blunt traumas. This decline was likely due to the timely diagnosis and treatment of these injuries in the acute period. CONCLUSION: For 2018–2022 in TashPMI clinic, patients with closed-eye injuries accounted for 7% of the total number of hospitalized patients and 28.9% of the total number of injuries. The number of patients with closed-eye injuries tended to increase over 5 years, both in relation to the total number of hospitalized patients and the total number of patients with injuries and their complications for each year separately. The results of the retrospective analysis of closed-eye injuries in children based on TashPMI clinic data demonstrated the urgency of treating ophthalmic injuries in children, which requires prevention, prompt first aid, and specialized high-tech assistance.

Effectiveness of vestibular rehabilitation therapy and yoga in the management of chronic peripheral vertigo: A randomized controlled trial.

The purpose of the study was to compare the effectiveness of yoga as a form of Vestibular Rehabilitation (VR) to standard VR for managing patients with symptoms such as dizziness, disequilibrium and gait instability. 150 participants based on 18-point difference in the DHI score were randomly assigned to group 1- Yoga, group 2- VR and group 3- control group using block randomization. The intervention was provided for 12 weeks. The participants were assessed for Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI) at baseline, 4 th, 8 th and 12 th week. The mean DHI for group 1(41.12±7.13) group 2 (42.96±10.54) group 3 (50.84±10.78), p<0.001 decreased significantly in group 1 and 2 when compared to baseline. There was no statistically significant difference in overall Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI) scores between the Yoga and Physiotherapy groups after one month; however, both groups resulted in a significant decrease in scores when compared to the control group. Similarly, by the end of the second and third months, there was no significant distinction between the Yoga and Physiotherapy groups, even though both had a considerable decrease in DHI scores when compared to the control group. Furthermore, an examination of the functional, emotional, and physical components of DHI demonstrated persistent trends of significant improvement in both the Yoga and Physiotherapy groups as compared to the control group over a three-month period. In addition to VR, Yoga and medications administered concurrently can provide effective therapeutic effects. Yoga has an advantage over VR since it offers a customized cure for giddiness in addition to symptom relief. Yoga might be a great alternative to the conventional VR because along with enhancing overall body relaxation, it is affordable and is easy to learn.

The impact of land expropriation on changing livelihoods: The case of displaced peri-urban farmers in Kon and Gashena towns, Ethiopia

The research examines how urban growth and land expropriation have affected farming communities in the towns of Gashena and Kon over the past twenty years. The study used a case study approach, utilizing methods such as open-ended interview checklists, structured questionnaires, and focus group discussions. It reveals a significant reduction in available farmland due to horizontal urban growth, leading to the displacement of numerous farm holdings and disruption of agricultural practices. By analyzing municipal data and employing simple regression modeling, the research anticipates further expansion, underscoring persistent urban growth trends. Economic displacement emerges as a pressing issue, as farmers grapple with finding alternative sources of income, exacerbating food insecurity within affected communities. Moreover, the study unveils diverse impacts on displaced farm holdings, including shifts away from agriculture in livelihoods and substantial income losses. The loss of land assets poses a threat to agricultural productivity and community sustainability. Despite assurances from municipal authorities, the lack of support, guidance, and training contributes to community dissatisfaction. The research underscores the interconnectedness of land, food, culture, and identity, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive strategies to address the multifaceted impacts of land expropriation. Recommendations include policy interventions, support for transitioning farmers, promotion of sustainable land use practices, and fulfillment of promises regarding support and infrastructure development. Providing training and guidance services for displaced individuals is also crucial for addressing the challenges of land expropriation effectively.

Racial Disparities in Alcoholic Hepatitis Hospitalizations in the United States: Trends, Outcomes, and Future Projections.

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a serious complication of alcohol consumption with high morbidity and mortality, particularly in the United States where alcohol-related liver diseases rank as one of the leading causes of preventable death. Our study aims to analyze the morbidity and mortality of AH across racial groups and project hospitalization trends up to 2028, thereby informing public health initiatives. We conducted a cross-sectional study utilizing data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) spanning 2012 to 2021. The study population comprised hospitalizations identified using specific ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM codes for AH. We assessed hospitalizations, in-hospital mortality rates, length of stay (LOS), and morbidities related to alcoholic hepatitis adjusting for sociodemographic factors and hospital characteristics. Statistical analyses were performed using Stata and R software, employing logistic and linear regression analyses, and SARIMA models for forecasting. Our results indicated a predominantly White cohort (68%), with a notable increase in AH hospitalizations among Hispanics (129.1% from 2012 to 2021). Racial disparities were observed in inpatient mortality, liver transplant accessibility, and the occurrence of in-hospital complications. The study forecasts a continued rise in hospitalizations across all racial groups, with Hispanics experiencing the sharpest increase. Our study reveals a disproportionate rise in the AH burden among Hispanics with projections indicating a persistent upward trend through 2028. These findings highlight the need for targeted public health strategies and improved healthcare access to mitigate the increasing AH burden and address disparities in care and outcomes.

Persistent trends and inefficiencies in the Greek housing market: a sentiment based approach

PurposeWe examine the aggregate price trend of the Greek housing market from a behavioral perspective.Design/methodology/approachWe construct a behavioral real estate sentiment index, based on relevant real estate search terms from Google Trends and websites, and examine its association with real estate price distributions and trends. By employing EGARCH(1,1) on the New Apartments Index data from the Bank of Greece, we capture real estate price volatility and asymmetric effects resulting from changes in the real estate search index. Enhancing robustness, macroeconomic variables are added to the mean equation. Additionally, a run test assesses the efficiency of the Greek housing market.FindingsThe results show a significant relationship between the Greek housing market and our real estate sentiment index; an increase (decrease) in search activity, indicating a growing interest in the real estate market, is strongly linked to potential increases (decreases) in real estate prices. These results remain robust across various estimation procedures and control variables. These findings underscore the influential role of real estate sentiment on the Greek housing market and highlight the importance of considering behavioral factors when analyzing and predicting trends in the housing market.Originality/valueTo investigate the behavioral effect on the Greek housing market, we construct our behavioral pattern indexes using Google search-based sentiment data from Google Trends. Additionally, we incorporate the Google Trend index as an explanatory variable in the EGARCH mean equation to evaluate the influence of online search behavior on the dynamics and prices of the Greek housing market.

Nine-Month Trend of IgG Antibody Persistence and Associated Symptoms Post-SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Between 2 and 8.5% of patients who recover from COVID-19 do not develop antibodies, and the durability of IgG antibodies is under scrutiny. Therefore, the presence and persistence of IgM and IgG antibodies were evaluated in a group of patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 from May to August 2020. Out of 2199 suspected COVID-19 cases, 1264 were confirmed for SARS-CoV-2 by rRT-PCR; 328 consented to participate in the study, with 220 participants followed for 9 months, including 124 men (56%) and 96 women (44%). The primary symptoms were headache, dry cough, and fever. IgG antibodies developed in 95% of patients within 4 weeks post-diagnosis, and a second evaluation at 9 months showed that 72.7% still had detectable IgG antibodies. The presence of IgM in one individual (0.45%) suggested the possibility of reinfection.

Efficacy of Phlogenzyme® in men following transurethral laser enucleation of prostate hyperplasia: results of a randomized trial

Introduction. The most advanced and effective method of surgical treatment for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is transurethral laser enucleation of the prostate (tLEP). Recently, there has been a growing interest in exploring new approaches to reduce the risk of complications following tLEP.Objective. To evaluate the efficacy of using Phlogenzym® as part of a comprehensive treatment plan for patients following tLEP to reduce dysuria (urinary discomfort), leukocyturia (white blood cells in urine), and prevent infectious and fibrosis-related complications.Materials &amp; methods. An open-label, randomized trial enrolled 105 patients undergoing tLEP. The patients were randomly assigned to two groups: the study group (n=50) received standard postoperative care in combination with Phlogenzym® for 30 days, while the control group (n=55) received standard care (α1-adrenergic blocker for 28 days) only. uring the follow-up period, which lasted for 1, 3, and 6 months postoperatively, complaints were evaluated using the IPSS-QoL, and IIEF-5 questionnaires, as well as indicators of urinalysis and urine culture, prostate volume measurements, residual urine volume, and uroflowmetry data.Results. Among all patients, the median preoperative values for prostate volume, IPSS, QoL score, and median peak urine flow rate were 90 cc, 18 points, 5 points, and 7.9 mL/s, respectively, with no significant differences between the groups. One month after surgery, in the study group, there was a more significant decrease in prostate volume (57% vs. 41%), although this difference was not statistically significant (p &gt; 0.05). At the 6-month follow-up, bacteriuria was less common in the study group (42% vs. 67%), and there was a consistent trend toward a reduction in the incidence of fibrous complications, although these differences were not statistically significant either (p &gt; 0.05). No adverse events occurred during the follow-up period.Conclusion. Our experience suggests that the use of Phlogenzym® is safe during the postoperative period following tLEP surgery. The use of this drug leads to a reduction in prostate volume postoperatively and significantly reduces the bacteriuria by the six-month follow-up. Additionally, there is a persistent positive trend towards reducing the overall incidence of fibrotic complications in the surgical site. The results achieved and the absence of significant side effects characterize Phlogenzym® as having a favorable clinical profile.

Recent developments in antibiotic contamination of animal products, soil, and water worldwide

Abstract Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), facilitated by antibiotic consumption, remains one of the biggest threats to global health and food security. The burgeoning AMR has an estimated forecast of 10 million deaths and 100 trillion USD economic losses annually worldwide by 2050 if no urgent actions are taken. The indiscriminate use of antibiotics in food animal production plays an expressive role in the AMR crisis. This paper compiles information regarding antibiotics and AMR in animals, animal-derived products, and agriculture-impacted environment. A holistic approach is needed to mitigate the burden of AMR within the context of human-animal-environment. Currently there are few approaches to this problem such as nanotechnology, anaerobic digestion, biochar composting, and alternatives to antibiotic treatments (like herbal plant extracts, probiotics, vaccines, enzymes, and antimicrobial peptides) have been developed. However, there are gaps in knowledge about AMR and areas for improvement are obvious. There is no a clear path to put an end to the persistent trends of AMR. Despite the trends for stricter regulation on the use of antibiotics worldwide, they find their way into food animal production, water, and soil as a result of misuses in many countries. We need to acknowledge the antibiotic contamination and/or AMR as a silent pandemic, and we are challenged to adopt a global approach to reducing and improving their use.

Evaluation of liver transplantation services in Kazakhstan from 2012 to 2023

There is a scarcity of publications evaluating the performance of the national liver transplantation (LTx) program in Kazakhstan. Spanning from 2012 to 2023, it delves into historical trends in LTx surgeries, liver transplant centers, and the national cohort of patients awaiting LTx. Survival analysis for those awaiting LTx, using life tables and Kaplan–Meier, is complemented by time series analysis projecting developments until 2030. The overall per million population (pmp) LTx rate varied from 0.35 to 3.77, predominantly favoring living donor LTx. Liver transplant center rates ranged from 0.06 to 0.40. Of 474 LTx patients, 364 on the waiting list did not receive transplantation. The 30-day and 1-year survival rates on the waiting list were 87.0% and 68.0%, respectively. Viral hepatitis and cirrhosis prevalence steadily rose from 2015 to 2023, with projections indicating a persistent trend until 2030. Absent targeted interventions, stable pmp rates of LTx and liver transplant centers may exacerbate the backlog of unoperated patients. This study sheds light on critical aspects of the LTx landscape in Kazakhstan, emphasizing the urgency of strategic interventions to alleviate the burden on patients awaiting transplantation.

Discovery of 6-Acylamino/Sulfonamido Benzoxazolone with IL-6 Inhibitory Activity as Promising Therapeutic Agents for Ulcerative Colitis.

Ulcerative colitis has been widely concerned for its persistent upward trend, and the sustained overproduction of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6 remains a crucial factor in the development of UC. Therefore, the identification of new effective drugs to block inflammatory responses is an urgent and viable therapeutic strategy for UC. In our research, twenty-three 6-acylamino/sulfonamido benzoxazolone derivatives were synthesized, characterized, and evaluated for anti-inflammatory activity against NO and IL-6 production in LPS-induced RAW264.7 cells. The results demonstrated that most of the target compounds were capable of reducing the overexpression of NO and IL-6 to a certain degree. For the most active compounds 3i, 3j and 3 l, the inhibitory activities were superior or equivalent to those of the positive drug celecoxib with a dose-dependent relationship. Furthermore, animal experiments revealed that active derivatives 3i, 3j and 3 l exhibited definitive therapeutical effect on DSS induced ulcerative colitis in mice by mitigating weight loss and DAI score while decreasing levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6 and IFN-γ, simultaneously increasing production of anti-inflammatory cytokines IL-10. In addition, compounds 3i, 3j and 3 l could also inhibit the oxidative stress to alleviate ulcerative colitis by decreasing MDA and MPO levels. These finding demonstrated that compounds 3i, 3j and 3 l hold significant potential as novel therapeutic agents for ulcerative colitis.

Spatio-Temporal Morphodynamics of a Nourished Sandy Shore Based on LiDAR Measurements

Coastal erosion is a pervasive global phenomenon, exemplified by the Hel Peninsula situated in the Gulf of Gdańsk, the southern Baltic Sea. The geological constitution of the Hel Peninsula, characterized by sandy and loosely consolidated material, predisposes its coastal zones to continual morphological changes. The peninsula’s limited width and elevation exacerbate shoreline erosion, particularly during periods of heightened storm activity. This study scrutinizes the effectiveness of coastal nourishment interventions, with a specific focus on segments influenced by the Władysławowo port and the Kuźnica vicinity, over several years. This specific section of the coast serves as a significant case study due to its role as a transit zone for sand transport along the whole peninsula. Protective measures, including shore nourishments and coastal groynes, aim to mitigate erosion impacts. Utilizing Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data spanning from 2008 to 2022, erosion dynamics were analyzed. The analysis reveals significant erosion patterns coinciding with the frequency and volume of nourishment material deposition, particularly evident in heavily nourished areas proximate to Władysławowo and Kuźnica. Despite persistent monitoring endeavors, persistent erosive trends pose imminent threats to Kuźnica’s infrastructure, necessitating further research into the efficacy of implemented coastal protection measures.

A novel approach to identify priority areas for optimal nutrient management in mixed land-use watersheds through nutrient budget assessment

Excessive nutrient supply in agricultural regions has led to various environmental issues, thereby requiring concentrated management owing to its persistent upward trend. Nutrient budgets (NBs), a vital agricultural environmental indicator, are employed for nutrient management in agricultural areas, using data surveyed by administrative agencies. However, the spatial extent of nutrient data for nutrient budgeting is limited by administrative boundaries according to the surveying organization, posing challenges in interpreting spatial patterns at the watershed level. In this study, a novel approach was developed to identify priority nutrient management areas by applying hot spot spatial analysis to watershed-level NBs, considering hydrological characteristics. This method was applied to approximately 850 subwatersheds across the Republic of Korea, where land cover characteristics are complex. Reassessing nutrient budgets at the watershed scale, accounting for overlapping administrative boundary areas and crop cultivation ratios, indicated similar levels between the two methods. Hot spot analysis revealed that watersheds with elevated NBs mirrored the spatial patterns of livestock excreta and cropland. The spatial distribution characteristics of watersheds with high nutrient levels in rivers corresponded with the concentration characteristics of industrial and commercial areas. Therefore, applying watershed-level NBs based on land cover ratios that consider nutrient input characteristics in agricultural regions is deemed appropriate for selecting priority nutrient management areas. Collectively, this study presents a method for selecting nutrient management priority areas by simultaneously considering the spatial characteristics of various environmental factors, such as land cover, livestock excreta, river water quality, and land area-based watershed-specific NBs. The proposed approach, considering mixed land cover characteristics, is anticipated to be valuable for selecting priority management areas in watersheds with diverse pollution sources. Future research is needed to explore nutrient budgets within watersheds, the influence of land use on pollution sources, and their correlation with water quality.

Species motif participation provides unique information about species risk of extinction.

Loss of species in food webs can set in motion a cascade of additional (secondary) extinctions. A species' position in a food web (e.g. its trophic level or number of interactions) is known to affect its ability to persist following disturbance. These simple measures, however, offer only a coarse description of how species fit into their community. One would therefore expect that more detailed structural measures such as participation in three-species motifs (meso-scale structures which provide information on a species' direct and indirect interactions) will also be related to probability of persistence. Disturbances affecting the basal resources have particularly strong effects on the rest of the food web. However, how disturbances branch out and affect consumer persistence depends on the structural pattern of species interactions in several steps. The magnitude, for example, the proportion of basal resources lost, will likely also affect the outcome. Here, we analyse whether a consumer's risk of secondary extinction after the removal of basal resources depends on the consumer's motif participation and how this relationship varies with the severity of disturbance. We show that consumer species which participate more frequently in the direct competition motif and less frequently in the omnivory motif generally have higher probability of persistence following disturbance to basal resources. However, both the strength of the disturbance and the overall network structure (i.e. connectance) affect the strength and direction of relationships between motif participation and persistence. Motif participation therefore captures important trends in species persistence and provides a rich description of species' structural roles in their communities, but must be considered in the context of network structure as a whole and of the specific disturbance applied.

Dipole Pattern of Holocene Hydroclimate Variations Across the Asian Drylands: Critical Evidence From West Asia

AbstractExploring the spatiotemporal differences of hydroclimate variations is crucial for managing future climate change. In the Asian drylands, West Asia (WA) and arid central Asia (ACA) are both climatically dominated by the westerlies and have shown a dipole pattern in precipitation variation during the past several decades. However, it is unclear whether such a difference exists during the Holocene, mainly because the dispute between the δ18O‐based early Holocene hydroclimate optimum and the pollen‐based mid‐Holocene optimum in WA. Here we present a precisely dated record based on lipid biomarkers from Almalou Peatland in the western Iranian Plateau. The chain length of n‐alkanoic acids was interpreted as a hydroclimate indicator based on a proxy validation study. Our record reveals a wetting trend during 9–7.5 cal ka BP, a mid‐Holocene hydroclimate optimum (7.5–3 cal ka BP), and a rapidly drying trend during 3–0 cal ka BP. The hydroclimate variation was supported by a water‐level reconstruction from the same core. The most negative δ18O values during the early Holocene could be partly attributed to the impacts of water vapor sources. Comparing our reconstruction from WA to those from ACA, we found a dipole pattern of hydroclimate variations on the millennial timescale during the Holocene. The simulation results revealed that, unlike the persistent wetting trend in ACA, the pivotal shift of spring insolation led to a transition from wetting to drying conditions in WA, ultimately leading to the generation of dipole pattern. This demonstrates that despite the consistent control by westerlies over the Asian drylands, there are distinct spatial differences in hydroclimate responses to natural forcings.