Permafrost Thickness Research Articles

The Structure of Permafrost in Northern West Siberia: Geophysical Evidence

The permafrost of Arctic West Siberia stores extremely rich resources of hydrocarbon fuels that remain a key energy source and an important element of the global economy. A large amount of natural gas in permafrost is bound in gas hydrates which may become an alternative fuel of the future. Shallow subsurface in the permafrost area of northern West Siberia has been studied by transient electromagnetic (TEM) soundings to estimate the permafrost thickness and to detect faults as channels for fluids and heaving features as possible indicators of gas hydrate accumulations. The shallow transient electromagnetic (sTEM) surveys were conducted in discontinuous and continuous permafrost at two sites in northern West Siberia (the northeastern Yamal Peninsula and the southern Gydan Peninsula), with a focus on the vicinities of lakes and cryogenic landforms (frost mounds). The sTEM method resolves well the heterogeneous permafrost structure, with faults, numerous unfrozen zones (taliks), and frost mounds marked by resistivity and seismic anomalies. Some lakes are located above faults, and their origin may be related to deformation, whereas the frost mounds may mark deep-seated fluid dynamic processes. Local thickening of permafrost may be associated with the presence of gas hydrates. The detected features may trace gas migration pathways and reveal possible sites of gas emission.

Periglacial Landforms and Fluid Dynamics in the Permafrost Domain: A Case from the Taz Peninsula, West Siberia

Most of the developing oil and gas fields in Russia are located in Arctic regions and constructed on permafrost, where recent environmental changes cause multiple hazards for their infrastructure. The blowing-up of pingos, resulting in the formation of gas emission craters, is one of the disastrous processes associated both with these external changes and, likely, with deep sources of hydrocarbons. We traced the channels of fluid migration which link a gas features reservoirs with periglacial phenomena associated with such craters with the set of geophysical methods, including common depth point and shallow transient electromagnetic methods, on an area of a prospected gas field. We found correlated vertical anomalies of acoustic coherence and electrical resistivity associated with gas chimneys in the upper 500–600 m of the section. The thickness of the ice-bonded permafrost acting as a seal for fluids decreased in the chimney zone, forming 25–50 m deep pockets in the permafrost base. Three pingos out of six were located above chimneys in the study area of 200 km2. Two lakes with parapets typical for craters were found. We conclude that the combination of applied methods is efficacious in terms of identifying this type of hazard and locating potentially hazardous objects in the given territory.

Impacts of ecological succession and climate warming on permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins of the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Northwest Territories, Canada

AbstractRapidly increasing air temperatures will alter permafrost conditions across the Arctic, but variation in soils, vegetation, snow conditions, and their effects on ground thermal regime complicate prediction across spatial and temporal scales. Processes that result in the emergence of new surfaces (lake drainage, channel migration, isostatic uplift, etc.) provide an opportunity to assess the factors influencing permafrost aggradation and terrain evolution under a warming climate. In this study we describe ground temperatures, vegetation, and snow and soil conditions at six drained lake basins (DLBs) that have exposed new terrain in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands in the last 20–100 years. We also use one‐dimensional thermal modeling to assess the impact of ecological succession and future climate scenarios on permafrost conditions in historical and future DLBs. Our field observations show that deep snow pack and shallow organic layers at shrub‐dominated DLBs promote increased thaw depth and ground temperatures compared to a sedge‐dominated DLB and two ancient DLB reference sites. Modeling of past and future drainages shows that climate warming projected under RCP 8.5 will reduce rates of permafrost aggradation and thickness, and drive top‐down thaw that could degrade permafrost in shrub‐dominated DLBs by the end of the century. Permafrost at sedge‐dominated sites was more resilient to warming under RCP 8.5, with the onset of top‐down thaw delayed until about 2080. Together, this indicates that the effects of ecological succession on organic soil development and snow drifting will strongly influence the aggradation and resilience of permafrost in DLBs. Our analysis suggests that DLBs and other emergent landscapes will be the first permafrost‐free environments to develop under a warming climate in the continuous permafrost zone.

Influence of the Active Layer Thickness of Permafrost in Eastern Siberia on the River Discharge of Nutrients into the Arctic Ocean

Large rivers are important links between continents and oceans for material flows that have a global impact on marine biogeochemistry. Processes in the catchment areas of large rivers can affect the flow of solutes into the global ocean. The goal was to determine how the concentration of individual components of nutrients in the rivers of Eastern Siberia changes depending on the active layer thickness of the permafrost (ALT) and to elucidate whether the ALT is a factor that can control nutrient flux to the Arctic Ocean. The method of canonical correlation analysis was applied to the data on the concentration of nutrients in the 12 largest rivers of Eastern Siberia and the active layer thickness in their catchments. We found that the concentration of nutrients such as ammonium ion (NH4) and total phosphorus (Ptotal) in river waters is higher in catchments with a deeper active layer. The waters of the mountain rivers in the south of the region (the Chara and Vitim rivers) are the richest in nutrients. Arctic rivers such as the Indigirka and Anabar were low in nutrients. The permeability of soils also affects the discharge of nutrients into rivers with surface runoff. We conclude that in the future, in the context of global climatic changes and the projected deepening of the active layer throughout the permafrost zone of the Northern Hemisphere, an increase in the supply of nutrients to the Arctic Ocean is possible.

Gas hydrate stability zone in Muri coalfield, Qinghai Province, China

ABSTRACTThe gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is the essential condition for gas hydrate accumulation, which is controlled by three main factors: gas component, geothermal gradient and permafrost thickness. Based on the gas component of hydrate samples from drilling in Muri coalfield, the gas hydrate phase equilibrium curve was calculated using Sloan's natural gas hydrate phase equilibrium procedure (CSMHYD) program. Through temperature data processing of coalfield boreholes, some important data such as thickness of permafrost and geothermal gradient were obtained. The GHSZ parameters of a single borehole were calculated by programming based on the above basic data. The average thickness of GHSZ of 85 boreholes in Muri coalfield amounted to approximately 1000 m, indicating very broad space for gas hydrate occurrence. The isogram of GHSZ bottom depth drawn from single borehole data in Muri coalfield demonstrated the regional distribution characteristics of GHSZ, and identified three favourable areas of gas hydrate occurrence where the bottom of GHSZ had a burial depth >1500 m – namely, the southern part of Juhugeng Mining Area, the middle part of Duosuogongma Mining Area and the eastern part of Xuehuoli Mining Area.

Recent warming reverses forty-year decline in catastrophic lake drainage and hastens gradual lake drainage across northern Alaska

Lakes represent as much as ∼25% of the total land surface area in lowland permafrost regions. Though decreasing lake area has become a widespread phenomenon in permafrost regions, our ability to forecast future patterns of lake drainage spanning gradients of space and time remain limited. Here, we modeled the drivers of gradual (steady declining lake area) and catastrophic (temporally abrupt decrease in lake area) lake drainage using 45 years of Landsat observations (i.e. 1975–2019) across 32 690 lakes spanning climate and environmental gradients across northern Alaska. We mapped lake area using supervised support vector machine classifiers and object based image analyses using five-year Landsat image composites spanning 388 968 km2. Drivers of lake drainage were determined with boosted regression tree models, using both static (e.g. lake morphology, proximity to drainage gradient) and dynamic predictor variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, wildfire). Over the past 45 years, gradual drainage decreased lake area between 10% and 16%, but rates varied over time as the 1990s recorded the highest rates of gradual lake area losses associated with warm periods. Interestingly, the number of catastrophically drained lakes progressively decreased at a rate of ∼37% decade−1 from 1975–1979 (102–273 lakes draining year−1) to 2010–2014 (3–8 lakes draining year−1). However this 40 year negative trend was reversed during the most recent time-period (2015–2019), with observations of catastrophic drainage among the highest on record (i.e. 100–250 lakes draining year−1), the majority of which occurred in northwestern Alaska. Gradual drainage processes were driven by lake morphology, summer air and lake temperature, snow cover, active layer depth, and the thermokarst lake settlement index (R 2 adj = 0.42, CV = 0.35, p < 0.0001), whereas, catastrophic drainage was driven by the thawing season length, total precipitation, permafrost thickness, and lake temperature (R 2 adj = 0.75, CV = 0.67, p < 0.0001). Models forecast a continued decline in lake area across northern Alaska by 15%–21% by 2050. However these estimates are conservative, as the anticipated amplitude of future climate change were well-beyond historical variability and thus insufficient to forecast abrupt ‘catastrophic’ drainage processes. Results highlight the urgency to understand the potential ecological responses and feedbacks linked with ongoing Arctic landscape reorganization.

Characteristics of the Siberian coal basins permafrost: An example of Ytymdja depression

Ytymdja depression is one of the Mesozoic structures with discovered large coal deposits of the Aldan Upland. Lack of industrial development and farness from agglomerations explain the knowledge gap about the environmental conditions of the Ytymdja depression. A field monitoring network with existing deep boreholes was absorbed to investigate permafrost conditions and to assess potential impacts of local factors and climate change. This paper describes analyse temperatures at the depth down to 240 m by these boreholes with air and ground temperatures of the Ytymdja depression to determinate permafrost conditions. The research was carried out in a 1800 km2 area of the South Yakutia, Siberia, using satellite imagery-based classification. The field investigations and analysis of ground temperatures indicated that permafrost underlies of the ground entire area of Ytymdja depression, but likely absent under large rivers. Permanent negative temperatures have been detected in the borehole, which shows evidence of the existing of widespread permafrost conditions nowadays in the coal basins in Siberia. Permafrost temperatures vary between −3.1 °C and −1.5 °C at 35 m below the surface, and annual ground temperatures at 1 m depth ranged from −4.9 °C to −1.2 °C. Thermal conductivity of rocks determined by individual core samples varies from 1.1 to 2.9 W m−1 °C−1 with geothermal heat flux in the permafrost zone of 0.02 W m−2 and an increase in the zone below permafrost to 0.03 W m−2. Spatial modelling for the entire territory of the Ytymdja depression deduced a continuous permafrost distribution with a thickness between 106 and 251 m. The considerable thickness of permafrost probably prevents the emission of greenhouse gases from coal seams into the atmosphere, but detailed studies in this direction have yet to be carried out.

Hybrid artificial ground freezing as a sustainable solution for containing hazardous-waste in critical environmental projects

Permafrost degradation represents a severe challenge for mining operations in Northern Canada. The foundations of the infrastructures rely on the steadiness of the permafrost. Accordingly, changes in permafrost durability may contribute to destructive failures if not appropriately preserved. Thus, it is of the greatest interest to maintain the integrity of permafrost in the affected areas. One of the safest methods to sustain permafrost is by employing artificial ground freezing (AGF). The associated AGF system, in contrast, is usually designed to operate continuously to sustain permafrost stability. This non-stop mode of operation requires intensive energy consumption. Therefore, an innovative, reliable operational technique is crucial to ensure permafrost sustainability. This paper presents and illustrates a novel concept of a ‘renewable energy’-based AGF system, with zero human-generated energy input, comprising a closed-loop thermosyphon coupled with a cold-energy storage tank that could be filled with a phase-change material (PCM). A mathematical model has been derived, validated, and exploited to simulate the AGF under various operating and design parameters. The results suggest that the employment of the coupled system of closed-loop thermosyphon and cold-energy storage unit reduces overall power consumption while maintaining the permafrost's thickness, notably during the summer.

Meteorological, snow and soil data (2013–2019) from a herb tundra permafrost site at Bylot Island, Canadian high Arctic, for driving and testing snow and land surface models

Abstract. Seasonal snow covers Arctic lands 6 to 10 months of the year and is therefore an essential element of the Arctic geosphere and biosphere. Yet, even the most sophisticated snow physics models are not able to simulate fundamental physical properties of Arctic snowpacks such as density, thermal conductivity and specific surface area. The development of improved snow models is in progress, but testing requires detailed driving and validation data for high Arctic herb tundra sites, which are presently not available. We present 6 years of such data for an ice-wedge polygonal site in the Canadian high Arctic, in Qarlikturvik valley on Bylot Island at 73.15∘ N. The site is on herb tundra with no erect vegetation and thick permafrost. Detailed soil properties are provided. Driving data are comprised of air temperature, air relative and specific humidity, wind speed, shortwave and longwave downwelling radiation, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation. Validation data include time series of snow depth, shortwave and longwave upwelling radiation, surface temperature, snow temperature profiles, soil temperature and water content profiles at five depths, snow thermal conductivity at three heights, and soil thermal conductivity at 10 cm depth. Field campaigns in mid-May for 5 of the 6 years of interest provided spatially averaged snow depths and vertical profiles of snow density and specific surface area in the polygon of interest and at other spots in the valley. Data are available at https://doi.org/10.5885/45693CE-02685A5200DD4C38 (Domine et al., 2021). Data files will be updated as more years of data become available.

Soil water content in permafrost regions exhibited smaller interannual changes than non-permafrost regions during 1986–2016 on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Permafrost is an important factor affecting soil hydrology in cold regions, while the effects of permafrost on temporal changes in soil water content largely remain unknown. Here, based on the calibrated Climate Change Initiative (CCI) soil moisture products using field observation soil water data at 5 cm depth from 8 representative sites, we examined changing trends of climate conditions and soil water contents during 1986–2016 between the permafrost and permafrost-free sites on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We found that all the sites have been experienced continuous warming during this period. Soil water contents showed significant increasing or decreasing trends at three of the four permafrost-free sites, but there were no significant increasing or decreasing changes at all the four permafrost sites. In addition, the Mann-Kendall (M−K) test showed that there were 2 change-points in soil water content for the sites with the active layer thickness was about 2 m, while the sites with active layer thickness larger than 3 m and permafrost-free sites showed 3–5 change-points, indicating that the soil water contents in areas with shallower active layer showed smaller changes. The different changing trends and change-points between permafrost and permafrost-free sites were associated with the existence of permafrost and active layer thickness. Although soil water contents can be affected by many factors, our results suggested that permafrost existence can affect interannual changes in soil water contents, and permafrost degradation including increasing active layer thickness and disappearance of permafrost may decrease ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change.

Modeling and mapping permafrost active layer thickness using field measurements and remote sensing techniques

Quantifying end of summer season Active Layer Thickness (ALT) of permafrost is critical for understanding the effects of climate warming, disturbance, and hydrologic changes on permafrost. Current research mainly focuses on ALT estimation and mapping at large scales using process-based or statistical-empirical models with biophysical variables as predictors. Here we modeled multi-year ALT field measurements between 2014 and 2019 at a site in Interior Alaska using 1-m hyperspectral imaging data and an object-based ensemble approach at a local scale (1 km2), examined the efficacy of the multispectral sensor WorldView (WV)-2 for ALT estimation, and explored the potential of integrating single-date imaging data with multi-year in-situ measurements for mapping the spatial and temporal variation of ALT. Modeling results showed hyperspectral imaging was accurate for estimating ALT with a correlation coefficient (r) larger than 0.7, while application of WV-2 data produced an r around 0.4. Reasonable ALT patterns were generated, and the spatial and temporal variation of ALT was delineated between the shallowest (2015) and deepest (2019) years using hyperspectral data. This study suggests hyperspectral imaging is a promising tool for predicting field ALT measurements and monitoring ALT change at local scales. We expect this study will stimulate hyperspectral optical sensors for permafrost studies in general, and particularly for ALT upscaling.

Landscape Indication Of Permafrost Conditions For Geoecological Assessment &amp; Mapping At Various Scales

In this paper, the features of landscape indication of permafrost characteristics required for assessing the environmental state at various research scales are discussed. A number of permafrost characteristics affect the geoecological state and stability of natural landscapes, especially in the context of climate warming and technogenic surface disturbances. These include the distribution, temperature regime, thickness and cryogenic structure of permafrost, seasonal freezing and thawing, as well as the development of cryogenic processes. Their determination through the landscape view, however, is ambiguous. The choice of certain permafrost characteristics for geoecological assessment is based on many years of experience in creating cryo-ecological maps on a landscape basis by the school of Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University. The recent studies on the identification of regional cryoindicators are analyzed, including the issues of cryogenic landscapes classification and clarification of the boundaries of geocryological zones using the landscape structural method. The content of the two maps, «Permafrost Landscape Differentiation Map of the Russia Cryolithozone» at a scale of 1: 15,000,000 and «Permafrost Landscape Map of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)» at a scale of 1: 1,500,000, is presented, as well as their use as a basis for environmental planning and geoecological assessment.

Thaw-driven mass wasting couples slopes with downstream systems, and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks

Abstract. The intensification of thaw-driven mass wasting is transforming glacially conditioned permafrost terrain, coupling slopes with aquatic systems, and triggering a cascade of downstream effects. Within the context of recent, rapidly evolving climate controls on the geomorphology of permafrost terrain, we (A) quantify three-dimensional retrogressive thaw slump enlargement and describe the processes and thresholds coupling slopes to downstream systems, (B) investigate catchment-scale patterns of slope thermokarst impacts and the geomorphic implications, and (C) map the propagation of effects through hydrological networks draining permafrost terrain of northwestern Canada. Power-law relationships between retrogressive thaw slump area and volume (R2=0.90), as well as the thickness of permafrost thawed (R2=0.63), combined with the multi-decadal (1986–2018) increase in the areal extent of thaw slump disturbance, show a 2 order of magnitude increase in catchment-scale geomorphic activity and the coupling of slope and hydrological systems. Predominant effects are to first- and second-order streams where sediment delivery, often indicated by formation of recent debris tongue deposits, commonly exceeds the transport capacity of headwater streams by orders of magnitude, signaling centennial- to millennial-scale perturbation of downstream systems. Assessment of hydrological networks indicates that thaw-driven mass wasting directly affects over 5538 km of stream segments, 889 km of coastline, and 1379 lakes in the 994 860 km2 study area. Downstream propagation of slope thermokarst indicates a potential increase in the number of affected lakes by at least a factor of 4 (n&gt;5692) and impacted stream length by a factor of 8 (&gt;44 343 km), and it defines several major impact zones on lakes, deltas, and coastal areas. Prince of Wales Strait is the receiving marine environment for greatly increased sediment and geochemical fluxes from numerous slump-impacted hydrological networks draining Banks Island and Victoria Island. The Peel and Mackenzie rivers are globally significant conveyors of the slope thermokarst cascade, delivering effects to North America's largest Arctic delta and the Beaufort Sea. Climate-driven erosion of ice-rich slopes in permafrost-preserved glaciated terrain has triggered a time-transient cascade of downstream effects that signal the rejuvenation of post-glacial landscape evolution. Glacial legacy, ground-ice conditions, and continental drainage patterns dictate that terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, and marine environments of western Arctic Canada will be an interconnected hotspot of thaw-driven change through the coming millennia.

Freezing Pressurized Water into a Standard Cylindrical Ice Sample in a Triaxial Cell

The mechanical characteristics of high-pressure frozen ice are a basis for the design of deep underground frozen walls, the drilling of thick permafrost and ice sheets, and the probing of extraterrestrial ice. The continuous control of the sample stress state from freezing to testing is essential for the experimental study of in situ mechanical response of high-pressure frozen ice. In the context, we developed a preparation technique for freezing pressurized water into a standard cylindrical ice sample in a triaxial cell. Through theoretical analysis, a cylindrical water sample with precise dimensions and strong sealing was fabricated using heat shrinkable tubing, sectional end caps, and an assembly cylinder. A mounting device was designed to insert the water sample into the triaxial cell without deformation. In order to deal with the lateral surface irregular of the resulting ice sample caused by freezing expansion, we proposed a pressurization method in which the volume of the confining medium is controlled to restrict the radial deformation of the sample, and the axial pressure on the sample is kept constant; thus, the freezing expansion will develop along the height direction through releasing the expansion pressure. Based on the analysis of sample deformation and finite element numerical simulations, the control method of the temperature fields of the sample and the confining medium was obtained, and the standard cylindrical ice sample which satisfies the geometric accuracy requirements was produced. The comparison of ice samples frozen by different freezing methods showed that the control of the confining medium mean temperature and the sample unidirectional freezing is necessary to improve the dimensional precision of the ice sample.

Internal structure and palsa development at Orravatnsrústir Palsa Site (Central Iceland), investigated by means of integrated resistivity and ground‐penetrating radar methods

AbstractThe natural cyclical development of palsas makes it difficult to use visible signs of decay as reference points for environmental change. Thus, to determine the actual development stage of a palsa, investigations of the internal structure are crucial. Our study presents 2‐D and 3‐D electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) and 2‐D ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) results, measurements of surface and subsurface temperatures, and of the soil matric potential from Orravatnsrústir Palsa Site in Central Iceland. By a joint interpretation of the results, we deduce the internal structure (i.e., thickness of thaw zone and permafrost, ice/water content) of five palsas of different size and shape. The results differentiate between initial and mature development stages and show that palsas of different development stages can exist in close proximity. While internal characteristics indicate undisturbed development of four palsas, one palsa shows indications of environmental change. Our study shows the value of the multimethod geophysical approach and introduces measurements of the soil matric potential as a promising method to assess the current state of the subsurface.

General concept of determining the parameters of non-mining walls of ultra-deep diamond deposits development open pits

A specific feature of open pit mining of diamond deposits in Western Yakutia is the construction of the open pits in the zone of negative ambient temperatures, which includes thick permafrost rock mass, and which is at the same time complicated by the influence of cryogenic processes on deformation of pit wall benches. The paper presents the comparative analysis of strength characteristics in frozen and thawed rocks, stability of benches during mining, the general geomechanical approach to the determination of parameters of non-mining walls of the ultra-deep open pit diamond mines, and the parameters of nonmining walls and benches. Optimization of open pit wall configuration should primarily be based on the maximum utilization of the strength properties of frozen rocks in combination with the development of new approaches, calculation schemes and methods for assessing stability of open pit walls and benches of unconventional design, including the non-mining vertical benches. The main design characteristic that determines the parameters of open pit walls is the structural tectonic relaxation coefficient, which specifies the calculated value of cohesion in rock mass. For the diamond deposits, the values of the structural relaxation coefficient were obtained in a series of field tests and back calculations. Full-scale tests were carried out both during exploration operations in underground mines and in open pits. The accuracy of determining the values of the structural relaxation coefficient in the range of 0.085–0.11 is confirmed by the parameters of non-mining walls in an open pit mine 385–640 m deep, with overall slope angles of 38–55° and a steeper H 0.35–0.5 lower part having the slope angle of up to 70° with average strength characteristics of 7.85–11.84 MPa and the internal friction angle of 28.1–37.4°. Using the natural load-bearing capacity of rock mass to the full advantage, which the values of the structural relaxation coefficient of deposits show, allows optimization of open pit wall slope design and minimization of stripping operations.

Unravelling the complex geological evolution of one of Earth's final remaining frontiers: East Siberia

East Siberia represents one of the most remote and inhospitable regions on the planet, home to the coldest permanently inhabited settlement on Earth (Oymyakon), where temperatures frequently fall below −50°C in winter. Geological investigations in this part of northern Asia are severely hampered by thick permafrost, a lack of infrastructure, vast tracts of barren uninhabited rough terrain, and political challenges. However, the rocks buried below the freezing tundra and taiga of this remote land provide evidence of an interesting and diverse geological history, including vast hypersaline salt basins, voluminous volcanic eruptions, Himalayan‐style mountain ranges, and extensive swamps. Following a comprehensive study of publically available literature, the majority published in Russian language and challenging to obtain in the UK, we aim to decipher the diverse and complicated geological history of this remote region over the past 1650 Myr.

Использование многолетнемерзлых пород для закачки дренажных вод коренных месторождений алмазов на примере участка «Ноябрьский» (рудник «Айхал»)

Thick permafrost strata in the territory of the Yakutsk diamondiferous province make it possible to take into account and use this natural favorable factor in environmental protection. For the environmentally safe exploitation of the fields, ALROSA is injecting drainage water into the existing and developed in the permafrost strata reservoirs. Consequently, an important research problem is assessment of the resulting impact of injection on the state of the geological environment by designing a method for predicting the position of the technogenic horizon for the estimated life of the field. The parameters of the planned distribution of the injected drainage water were obtained by the geophysical methods and study of the regime of the piezometric surface. The capacity of the drainage brine injection site was estimated based on the injection results in the mode of pilot operations. The conducted studies and calculations allow us concluding that the use of the method of drainage water pumping into permafrost from the Aykhal mine on the Noyabrskiy site made it possible to reduce the impact of mining operations on the geological environment and surroundings, eliminating the possibility of brines to contaminate the surface water. Key words: permafrost

Numerical modelling of permafrost spring discharge and open-system pingo formation induced by basal permafrost aggradation

Abstract. In the high Arctic valley of Adventdalen, Svalbard, sub-permafrost groundwater feeds several pingo springs distributed along the valley axis. The driving mechanism for groundwater discharge and associated pingo formation is enigmatic because wet-based glaciers are not present in the adjacent highlands and the presence of continuous permafrost seems to preclude recharge of the sub-permafrost groundwater system by either a subglacial source or a precipitation surplus. Since the pingo springs enable methane that has accumulated underneath the permafrost to escape directly to the atmosphere, our limited understanding of the groundwater system brings significant uncertainty to predictions of how methane emissions will respond to changing climate. We address this problem with a new conceptual model for open-system pingo formation wherein pingo growth is sustained by sub-permafrost pressure effects, as related to the expansion of water upon freezing, during millennial-scale basal permafrost aggradation. We test the viability of this mechanism for generating groundwater flow with decoupled heat (one-dimensional transient) and groundwater (three-dimensional steady state) transport modelling experiments. Our results suggest that the conceptual model represents a feasible mechanism for the formation of open-system pingos in lower Adventdalen and elsewhere. We also explore the potential for additional pressurisation and find that methane production and methane clathrate formation and dissolution deserve particular attention on account of their likely effects upon the hydraulic pressure. Our model simulations also suggest that the generally low-permeability hydrogeological units cause groundwater residence times to exceed the duration of the Holocene. The likelihood of such pre-Holocene groundwater ages is supported by the geochemistry of the pingo springs which demonstrates an unexpected seaward freshening of groundwater potentially caused by a palaeo-subglacial meltwater “wedge” from the Weichselian. Whereas permafrost thickness (and age) progressively increases inland, accordingly, the sub-permafrost meltwater wedge thins, and less unfrozen freshwater is available for mixing. Our observations imply that millennial-scale permafrost aggradation deserves more attention as a possible driver of sustained flow of sub-permafrost groundwater and methane to the surface because, although the hydrological system in Adventdalen at first appears unusual, it is likely that similar systems have developed in other uplifted valleys throughout the Arctic.

Factors Affecting the Formation and Evolution of Permafrost and Stability Zone of Gas Hydrates: Case Study of the Laptev Sea

The key factors controlling the formation and dynamics of relicpermafrost and the conditions for the stability of associated gas hydrates have been investigated using numerical modeling in this work. A comparison was made between two scenarios that differed in the length of freezing periods and corresponding temperature shifts to assess the impact on the evolution of the permafrost–hydrate system and to predict its distribution and geometry. The simulation setup included the specific heat of gas hydrate formation and ice melting. Significantly, it was shown that the paleoscenario and heat flows affect the formation of permafrost and the conditions for gas hydrate stability. In the Laptev Sea, the minimum and maximum predicted preservation times for permafrost are 9 and 36.6 kyr, respectively, whereas the presence of conditions consistent with methane hydrate stability at the maximum permafrost thickness is possible for another 25.9 kyr. The main factors influencing the rate of permafrost degradation are the heat flow and porosity of frozen sediments. The rates of permafrost thawing are estimated to be between 1 and 3 cm/yr. It is revealed that the presence of gas hydrates slows the thawing of the permafrost and feeds back to prolong the conditions under which gas hydrates are stable.