Period Of Economic Prosperity Research Articles

Climate policy in hard times: Are the pessimists right?

Conventional wisdom holds that the state of the economy has a strong impact on citizens' appetite for environmental policies, including climate policy. Assuming median voter preferences prevail, periods of economic prosperity are likely to be conducive, and economic downturns are likely to be detrimental to ambitious climate policy. Using original surveys in the United States and Germany, we engage in a critical re-assessment of this claim. The results show that, for the most part, individuals' perceptions of their own economic situations have no significant effect on their policy support. Negative perceptions of the national economic outlook reduce support for climate policy in the US, but not in Germany. However, the magnitude of this national economy effect in the US is small. On the other hand, individuals' climate risk perceptions consistently have a statistically significant and large effect across various model specifications, and interestingly, this pattern holds for the US, whose government is among the less ambitious in global climate policy, as well as Germany, which is among the frontrunners. Our study indicates that the state of the economy may not trump climate risk considerations as conventional wisdom claims.

Economic Conditions, Risk Perception and Climate Policy Preferences

Conventional wisdom holds that the state of the economy has a strong impact on citizens' appetite for environmental policies, including climate policy. Assuming median voter preferences prevail, periods of economic prosperity are likely to be conducive, and economic downturns are likely to be detrimental to ambitious climate policy. Using original surveys in the United States and Germany, we engage in a critical re-assessment of this claim. The results show that, for the most part, individuals' perceptions of their own economic situations have no significant effect on their policy support. Negative perceptions of the national economic outlook reduce support for climate policy in the US, but not in Germany. The magnitude of this national economy effect in the US is small, however. On the other hand, individuals' climate risk perceptions consistently have a statistically significant and large effect across various model specifications, and interestingly, this pattern holds for the US, whose government is among the less ambitious in global climate policy, as well as Germany, which is among the frontrunners. Our study indicates that the state of the economy may not trump climate risk considerations as much as conventional wisdom claims.

Three Urbanisms in One City: Accommodating the Paces of Change

In current times urban developments can no longer be seen as straightforward building of the required number of houses, industries and parking spaces. Instead, the problems in many cities are of different nature: urban conurbations may shrink, or climate impacts cause a serious disaster. These problems all have a different pace of development. The fast development must be combined with slower development pace fitting with shrinking cities and the sudden change climatic impacts requires. Therefore, in this article three types of urbanisms are proposed, which each care for an increase of resilience in the city. Fast urbanism accommodates the growth of the city in a calculated way in periods of economic prosperity; slow urbanism designs spaces for slowly developing uses such as ecology or food in times of shrinkage; and suddenism anticipates future climate impacts through designing spaces for temporary use.

The Economic Performance Index (EPI): An Intuitive Indicator for Assessing a Country's Economic Performance Dynamics in an Historical Perspective

Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).

The Economic Performance Index (EPI): an Intuitive Indicator for Assessing a Country's Economic Performance Dynamics in an Historical Perspective

Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).

High-risk occupations for suicide.

High occupational suicide rates are often linked to easy occupational access to a method of suicide. This study aimed to compare suicide rates across all occupations in Britain, how they have changed over the past 30 years, and how they may vary by occupational socio-economic group. Method We used national occupational mortality statistics, census-based occupational populations and death inquiry files (for the years 1979-1980, 1982-1983 and 2001-2005). The main outcome measures were suicide rates per 100000 population, percentage changes over time in suicide rates, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and proportional mortality ratios (PMRs). Several occupations with the highest suicide rates (per 100000 population) during 1979-1980 and 1982-1983, including veterinarians (ranked first), pharmacists (fourth), dentists (sixth), doctors (tenth) and farmers (thirteenth), have easy occupational access to a method of suicide (pharmaceuticals or guns). By 2001-2005, there had been large significant reductions in suicide rates for each of these occupations, so that none ranked in the top 30 occupations. Occupations with significant increases over time in suicide rates were all manual occupations whereas occupations with suicide rates that decreased were mainly professional or non-manual. Variation in suicide rates that was explained by socio-economic group almost doubled over time from 11.4% in 1979-1980 and 1982-1983 to 20.7% in 2001-2005. Socio-economic forces now seem to be a major determinant of high occupational suicide rates in Britain. As the increases in suicide rates among manual occupations occurred during a period of economic prosperity, carefully targeted suicide prevention initiatives could be beneficial.

Liquidity Expectation, Financing Ability and Credit Rating: Evidence from China

Sovereign Credit Ratings of many countries and credit rating of dozens of firms has been downgraded since the latest financial crisis. However in China short-term financing market, the credit rating seems to show a counter-cyclical phe- nomenon. We find that when the market and the economy upsurge, the bond principal rating is relatively poor; when the market and economy downturn, the bond principal rating is relatively high. In other words, the ratings of short-term financing bills show a counter-cyclical phenomenon. We propose the liquidity hypothesis for this phenomenon that during the period of economic prosperity, market liquidity and capital is relatively abundant; therefore even the compa- nies with poor ratings have access to raise funds. When the market downturns and liquidity is poor, there are not enough funds in the market, thus the companies with poor ratings may fall to finance due to the lack of funds. Therefore, the liquidity of the market causes the bond rating to show a counter-cyclical phenomenon. Empirical research supports this hypothesis.

Recession and housing wealth

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the changing role of housing wealth from an investment vehicle to a welfare resource. It also considers the implications of economic prosperity and decline in the UK on homeowners, intentions of equity withdrawal, and the consequences of managing household budgets.Design/methodology/approachThe paper takes the form of a quantitative longitudinal analysis of national data and panel survey, including random effects logistic regression model.FindingsHousing wealth is increasingly being used as a financial safety net across the life course. Homeowners are equally likely to have engaged in equity‐borrowing episodes during periods of economic prosperity as they are during periods of decline; particularly, lone parents with non‐dependent children and unemployed people. Housing tends to be used as a last resort once other forms of credit have been exhausted.Research limitations/implicationsThere are data constraints; equity withdrawal can only be calculated from 1994 and the latest wave of data available is 2008. The research is not therefore able to consider the full extent of the consequences of the current recession, however, it does provide an indication of the problems that may emerge.Social implicationsSocial implications arise from the concentration of resources into housing wealth; homeowners may suffer through having increased debt and there are implications for financial and sustainable welfare policy where home ownership is positioned as a nation's welfare resource.Originality/valueThe paper draws upon the author's recent work (in collaboration with others) which offers insights into the motivations for equity borrowing. This paper offers an original contribution through presenting empirical evidence on the effect of economic prosperity and economic decline on household behaviour, and adds new insights in respect of the implications for households who rely on housing wealth in the context of the current recession.

The effects of industrial diversification on regional unemployment in Taiwan: is the portfolio theory applicable?

Unemployment issues, particularly recently, have been the subject of heated rhetoric in Taiwan due to the currently high unemployment rate in this small open economy. This paper investigates regional unemployment in 23 counties or cities from 1982 to 2004. Izraeli and Murphy (Ann Reg Sci 37:1–14, 2003) suggested that the Herfindahl index of industrial structure is positively correlated with the unemployment rate. In this regard, the portfolio theory argues that industrial diversification can only reduce volatility in the regional labor market. In other words, there is a relatively higher regional unemployment rate during periods of economic prosperity and relatively lower unemployment rate during periods of economic slowdown. This view is fully confirmed from the fixed effects model using panel data and the implication is that a comprehensive industrial policy to lower both the unemployment rate and risk in regional labor markets is critical in Taiwan today.

Judah, Philistia, and the Mediterranean World: Reconstructing the Economic System of the Seventh Century B.C.E.

The seventh century b.c.e. was a period of economic prosperity, for which several lines of evidence for trade and settlement expansion have been found along the coastal plain, in the Judaean desert and the Negev. The discovery of Judahite wheat in Ash kelon, together with other available archaeological evidence of trade and data on the local geographical conditions, enables us to reconstruct the well-integrated economy of the seventh century. Ashkelon, the site of a huge Mediterranean port, was at the heart of the local economic system. Ashkelon's immediate vicinity was used primarily for the production of the most profitable economic product of the time?wine. The inner coastal plain and the Shephe lah, farther to the east and best represented by Ekron, were used mainly for the pro duction of olive oil. Judah and the Negev formed the third and fourth zones of production (for grains and grazing). The growing need for these products was behind Judah*s ex pansion to the previously un-/under-exploited regions of the Judaean desert and the Negev. This complex economic system was peripheral to the Mediterranean economic system of the seventh century, the driving force behind which was Phoenician maritime trade.

Institutions, Incentives, and Consumer Bankruptcy Reform

Consumer bankruptcy filing rates have soared during the past 25 years. From 225,000 filings in 1979, consumer bankruptcies topped 1.5 million during 2004. This relentless upward trend is striking in light of the generally high prosperity, low interest rates, and low unemployment during that period. In response to this anomaly of ever-upward bankruptcy filing rates during a period of economic prosperity, Congress passed the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA), which fundamentally rebalances the consumer bankruptcy system by creating new safeguards against fraudulent and abusive filings. Although BAPCPA drew broad bipartisan support on Capitol Hill, it is controversial within the academy. Critics have argued that these reforms are unnecessary and punitive, and that private market adjustments such as higher interest rates and more restrictive credit rationing are adequate policy responses to the problem of rising bankruptcy filings without the need for legislative reform. These criticisms are misplaced, and fail to appreciate the causes of the consumer bankruptcy crisis and the appropriate responses to it. Scholars have previously identified two models of the consumer bankruptcy process, the or distress model and the economic incentives model. Neither model, however, can explain the observed bankruptcy filing patterns of recent decades. This article offers a new model of consumer bankruptcy rooted in New Institutional Economics that explains the rise in consumer bankruptcy filings as reflecting changes in the institutions, incentives, and constraints surrounding the consumer bankruptcy filing decision. It is argued that this new model of consumer bankruptcy is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional model. The demise of the traditional model, which has dominated bankruptcy scholarship for a century, has created a need for a new theory of consumer bankruptcy filings that can better explain the observed data. The model offered here fills that gap. This article identifies three institutional factors that can explain the observed rise in bankruptcy filings over the past several decades: (1) A change in the relative economic costs and benefits associated with filing bankruptcy; (2) A change in social norms regarding bankruptcy; and (3) Changes in the nature of consumer credit, toward more national and impersonal forms of consumer credit. All of these factors have tended to increase the incentives and opportunity for filing bankruptcy or reduce the constraints imposed on filing bankruptcy. In contrast to the traditional distress model, which purports to focus on changes in underlying household financial condition as the cause of rising bankruptcies, this model presented here examines the economic demand for bankruptcy itself, focusing on the incentives and institutions that condition consumer bankruptcy filings. The result of all of these changes has been to increase the equilibrium level of bankruptcy filings in America. In light of these changes, the article briefly discusses some policy implications of accepting this new model of consumer bankruptcy. In particular, the model described here explains the economic logic of BAPCPA, showing its key provisions to be consistent with the logic of the new model of consumer bankruptcy presented here. In addition, the article also addresses more far-reaching proposals, such efforts to reverse changes in social norms or proposals to allow contracting-around the mandatory discharge provision of current law.

The added worker effect over the business cycle: evidence from urban Mexico

This paper investigates whether the added worker effect is an important determinant of the increased labour force participation by women and whether the magnitude of the added worker effect differs between the peak and trough of the business cycle. Use is made of repeated observations from spouses in urban Mexico, collected during the Peso crisis (1994:4–1995:4) and during the period of economic prosperity (1998:4–1999:4). Significant added worker effects are found in both periods. The magnitude of the added worker effect during the crisis period is found to be twice as large as that observed during the period of economic prosperity.

Bad Times But Still Swingin': World Series Coverage Before and During the Depression

The Great Depression was a time of severe social and economic upheaval for the United States. The hardships precipitated by the stock market crash and subsequent bank and business closings resulted in widespread unemployment, disillusionment, and turmoil. Though newspapers proved a surprisingly resilient industry during the late 1920s and early 1930s, even they were not immune to the harmful effects of economic decline. (1) Average circulation (and thus newspaper readership) dipped only slightly, but as businesses closed, newspapers lost advertising revenue--45 percent over the four years following 1929. (2) Even today, newspapers in similar situations, to compensate for the advertising revenue shortfall, often reduce production expenses by decreasing the number of pages they print. The decisions on how to cut content, however, do not come easily. Certain sections are preserved at the expense of others--an agonizing decision-making process that can anger both journalists and readers. One likely victim of cuts would seem to be the sports section, with its emphasis on diversion and escape over hard news. Previous studies have attested to the popularity of the sports page in the years preceding the Depression, particularly the 1920s. (3) But that decade was a period of economic prosperity, both for the nation and for its newspapers. How well did the sports section survive the economic disaster of the years that followed? Did readers lose their appetite for sports coverage during harsh economic times? Did the growing need for so-called hard news during a critical point in history relegate sports to a smaller portion of the newspaper? Previous research has not addressed such questions. This paper will help remedy that shortfall by presenting research that examines sports coverage from eight newspapers in 1927 and in 1932. Coverage of a specific sporting event of high public interest--baseball's World Series--will be compared to see whether major newspapers from a variety of geographical regions devoted less space to that sporting event, and to sports in general, when the Depression's effects were being fully felt. Such data can help determine the priority assigned sports during a period when most of the hard news, while bad, was in fact arguably more important news. More than merely quantifying editorial decisions, however, this paper will also seek to interpret Depression-era culture by using newspapers as a cultural text. As one sports researcher acknowledged: American newspapers are a mirror in which the nation is reflected in all its complex cultural diversity. (4) Sports heroes such as baseball players were popular (though perhaps not as well paid) cultural icons in the 1930s as much as in the 1920s. A sustained level of sports coverage would demonstrate that, even in the midst of economic depression, newspaper readers valued the diversions of the sports page, and newspaper editors obliged them. EVOLUTION The development of sports journalism, starting in the nineteenth century and climaxing in the Jazz Age, the 1920s, has been the subject of extensive previous research. In many ways the evolution of the newspaper sports page paralleled the evolution of baseball and other modern sports, reflecting their symbiotic relationship. By the early nineteenth century the Industrial Revolution provided Americans with more leisure time, and they began to turn their interest toward sports. (5) The earliest sports journals originated in Great Britain, the first being Pierce Egan's Life in London and Sporting Guide, which began publication in 1824. It was retitled Bell's Life in London four years later. Under that title it gained in popularity, reaching a circulation of 75,000 by the mid-1800s. (6) Similarly, in the United States, magazines reached enthusiasts more successfully than did newspapers. While James Gordon Bennett's New York Herald reported on horse races and prize fights from the 1840s on, most newspaper publishers looked down on such pursuits and left sports reporting to magazines such as Spirit of the Times. …

State Fiscal Responses to Welfare Reform during Recessions: Lessons for the Future

The 1996 welfare reform transformed open-ended matching grants to states to fixed block grants. This article considers whether, given the new regime, states will be able and willing to meet the need for public assistance during recessions. The accumulation of large balances of unspent federal welfare funds helped states weather the first year or so of the current recession without having to cut programs for needy families. While new fiscal rules promoted positive reform during a period of economic prosperity, they may be leaving states and their most vulnerable citizens at serious risk as the economic and fiscal slowdown continues.

Balancing Social and Economic Development in Korea: Flexible Labor Market Reforms and Productive Welfare

Abstract Korea experienced a long period of economic prosperity from the 1960s until the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The Korean government launched a series of economic structural reforms to liberalize and deregulate the economy. In fact, the reforms were initiated in the early 1990s when the Korean government developed its globalization policy. Flexible labor market reform was one of the major initiatives to keep the Korean economy competitive in the global market. Such reforms were accelerated by the financial crisis and supplemented by improved social services as a form of “productive welfare.” This paper describes the rationale for flexible labor market reform in Korea from the early 1990s, with special focus on the post-financial crisis period and the impacts on employment. The reforms in social services in response to the crisis are presented and achievements of programs under the banner of productive welfare are evaluated. While the reforms alleviated the problems, it is yet to ...

The other breadwinners: The mobilization of secondary wage earners in early twentieth-century black families

This study examines black families' reliance on secondary wage earners in Atlanta, GA during the early twentieth century (1900 and 1936). In periods of economic prosperity and decline, two-parent black families routinely relied on the employment of mothers, children, and extended kin to supplement the family income. These other breadwinners had different positions within the black family economy, and families' reliance on them was affected by diverse, albeit complementary factors. The employment of mothers and children was affected by economic need and the demands associated with the family life cycle. The presence of working relatives in extended family households was affected by the age of relatives, household size, and, to a limited degree, the ages of the host families' children.

Decadence or Crisis in the Luso-Brazilian Empire: A New Model of Colonization in the Eighteenth Century

Decadence or Crisis in the Luso-Brazilian Empire: A New Model of Colonization in the Eighteenth Century

Ex-post accounting in incremental budgeting: A study of norwegian municipalities

The paper examines management control and control systems in Norwegian municipalities, using the machine metaphor (Morgan, B., Images of Organizations, Sage. Beverly Hills, 1986) and the model of incremental budgeting (Wildavsky, A., Budgeting — A Comparative Theory of Budgetary Processes, Little Brown, Boston, MA, 1975) as the theoretical point of departure. An analysis of data from all Norwegian municipalities covering the period 1983–1986, a period of economic prosperity and steady growth, shows that budgets in Norwegian municipalities are well integrated over time. The observed behaviour can be explained by reference to Wildavsky of incremental budgeting. Ex-post accounts in Norwegian municipalities are also well integrated over time but only loosely integrated with budgets, despite the fact that 94% of all Norwegian municipalities in 1986 showed a negative budget variance on gross operating expenditure. The findings lead to the conclusion that ex-post accounting plays only a modest role in incremental budgeting when a country is experiencing growing wealth and the predictability of future expenditures and revenues is high.

Fordulóponton a magyar területfejlesztési politika, avagy szem elől veszítjük-e a francia mintát?

Fordulóponton a magyar területfejlesztési politika, avagy szem elől veszítjük-e a francia mintát?

Suicide in Japan: socioeconomic effects on its secular and seasonal trends.

Changes in male and female suicide death rates for 33 years following the end of World War II in Japan were analyzed. The death rates for men and women decreased during periods of economic prosperity and then increased during the years preceding economic depression; that for men also increased after economic depression. When examined by profile analysis, the seasonal variation was slightly but significantly different in the four time periods (1950-1955, 1955-1967, 1967-1974, and 1974-1982) in both sexes except between the last two periods (p less than .05). We suggest that death by suicide and its seasonal variation in Japan were affected by changes in socioeconomic conditions.