Period Of Economic Prosperity Research Articles

Will the Release of Presale Housing moderate or exacerbate residential price volatility? - Taking Apartmemt complexes Units in Taichung City as an Example

During periods of economic prosperity, increased profit opportunities lead to active transactions in the existing housing market and heightened consumer risk preferences. At this time, developers increase the launch of presale housing projects to expand business opportunities, indirectly filling the supply gap of existing homes and alleviating housing demand. However, in reality, prices in both the presale and existing housing markets mutually drive each other up, further delaying the stabilization of housing prices. Therefore, whether the launch of presale housing projects can alleviate the demand for existing homes and achieve the function of price moderation becomes a research-worthy question. This study aims to investigate whether the volume of presale housing projects moderates or exacerbates housing prices. We focus on the volatility of aggregate residential housing prices in Taichung City, Taiwan, using transaction data of monthly average prices for Apartmemt complexes Units (high-rise buildings and high-rise apartments) from August 2012 to June 2023. We employ the ARCH/GARCH models to analyze the impact of presale housing project volumes on housing price volatility. Stability and convergence indicate a moderating effect of presale housing project volumes on housing prices; otherwise, it indicates exacerbation. After model testing, this study selects the most appropriate model as the ARIMA(3,1,0)-GARCH(1,0) model. This study finds that during periods of economic prosperity, the volume of presale housing projects does not aid in stabilizing or converging residential housing prices; instead, it exacerbates market disruption.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF THE DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT AND WORKING CAPITAL LOANS FOR MICRO-ENTERPRISES – RESEARCH FOR POLAND DURING COVID-19

Aim: The study aims to find an answer to the question of whether and how the economic indicators in the industrial processing, construction, trade, and services sectors reflect changes in the market size related to investments and working capital loans for micro-enterprises. Methods: The study used data on investment and working capital loans and data on economic conditions. Monthly data for the years 2019–2021, covering the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, were used for the analyses. The estimation of dynamic models was carried out using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Results: The conducted research showed that economic factors play a significant role in shaping the demand for investment and working capital loans in the micro-enterprise sector, but the impact of the economic situation was more significant in the case of investment loans than working capital loans. In periods of economic prosperity, micro-enterprises are more likely to take out investment loans than in periods of economic downturn. Micro-enterprises’ propensity to take out working capital loans is more dependent on their current situation and expectations regarding the demand for products and services. Conclusions: The research revealed differences in the characteristics of the factors significantly influencing the demand for credit, depending on the sector to which the indicator is concerned. The research shows that access to external financing is crucial for the functioning, survival, and expansion of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. The research fills the literature gap by showing how the economic situation in individual industries affects the credit market for the micro-enterprises sector.

Social and economic determinants of electoral behavior in Turkey

PurposeIn this study the authors aim to comprehensively investigate the determinants of voting behavior in Turkey, with a specific focus on the dynamics of the center-periphery debate. Mainly, the authors focus on regional voting patterns during the period that is dominated by the Justice and Development Party (JDP/AKP) in the elections. The authors apply the random effects generalized least squares (GLS) methodology, and analyze electoral data covering four pivotal parliamentary elections (2007, 2011, 2015 and 2018) across all 81 provinces (NUTS III regions). The authors individually examine voting dynamics of the four major parties in parliament: the JDP/AKP, the Republican People's Party (RPP/CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP/MHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP/HDP). The authors contribute to a comprehensive understanding of how socioeconomic cleavages, economic performance, party alignment and social dynamics shape voter preferences in the Turkish context, thereby addressing gaps in the existing literature.Design/methodology/approachThis research employs an ecological study of Turkish NUTS III sub-regions, covering national elections from 2007 to 2018. The authors utilize the random effects GLS method to account for heteroscedasticity and time effects. The inclusion of the June and November 2015 elections enables a comprehensive analysis of the evolving dynamics in Turkish voting behavior. The results remain robust when applying pooled OLS and fixed effect OLS techniques for control.FindingsThe study's findings reveal that economic performance, specifically economic growth, plays a pivotal role in the sustained dominance of the JDP/AKP party. Voters closely associate JDP preference with economic growth, resulting in higher voting shares during periods of economic prosperity. Along with economic growth; share of agriculture in regions' GDP, female illiteracy rate, old population rate, net domestic migration, terrorism and party alignment are also influential factors in the Turkish case. Furthermore, differences among sociocultural groups, and East–West dichotomy seem to be important factors that reveal the impact of social cleavages to understand electoral choice in Turkey.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by offering a comprehensive multidimensional analysis of electoral behavior in Turkey, focusing on the JDP/AKP dominance period. The main contribution of this study is its multidimensional perspective on the power bases of all main parties, considering key voter choice theories (cleavages, party alignment and retrospective economic performance voting) that have not been systematically analyzed in prior research. The main research question of this study is to examine which factors affect voting behavior in Turkey and how the dynamics of center-periphery or eastern-western region voting behavior under the JDP hegemony can be explained. The contribution of this study consists not only in its empirical testing of panel data approaches but also in its comprehensive analysis of four major political parties. Building upon existing studies in the literature, this research seeks to extend the understanding of voting dynamics for the four main parties in the parliament — JDP/AKP, RPP/CHP, NMP/MHP and PPDP/HDP — by delving into their dynamics individually, thereby expanding the scope of previous studies. This study aims to make a contribution by not only empirically testing panel data approaches but also conducting a comprehensive analysis of four major political parties. Furthermore, the separate inclusion of the 2015 elections and utilization of a panel data approach enrich the analysis by capturing the evolving dynamics of Turkish voting behavior. The study underscores the significance of socioeconomic factors, economic performance and social cleavages for voters' choices within the context of a dominant party rule.

Inflation Persistence and Implications for the Euro Area

The deceleration of consolidation trends subsequent to the previous financial crisis has had a mitigating effect on price dynamics. Furthermore, the expansionary fiscal and monetary measures implemented to stimulate the recuperation of crisis-affected economies did not yield substantial inflationary consequences. The disruptions in supply chains caused by the pandemic, the increased use of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in response to the outbreak, and the influence of geopolitical factors such as energy prices have recently rekindled the capacity of price level dynamics to react. When the underlying economic factors deteriorate, it leads to an increase in vulnerability and a decrease in the ability of the euro area to withstand adverse events. During periods of economic prosperity, the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB) has the tendency to enhance the convergence of countries within the euro area and bolster its resilience against adverse economic disturbances. The findings of the article provide support for arguments emphasizing the need to adjust the institutional framework of the euro area, hence reinforcing the rationale for the concept of a two-speed euro area.

Financial stability and sustainable development

AbstractFinancial institutions operating in a stable financial system seem to be willing to support the realization of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). This view assumes that financial stability is crucial for sustainable development. We investigate the effect of financial stability on sustainable development. We use a unique financial stability index, sustainable development index and four SDG indicators. We analyse 26 countries from 2011 to 2018 using the system GMM method. The findings of the sustainable development index analysis show that financial stability has a significant effect on the level of sustainable development and the effect is negative in Asian countries. European and Asian countries have a high sustainable development index compared to African countries. The result of the individual SDG analyses show that financial stability has a significant effect on SDG3. Financial stability has a negative effect on SDG10 in Asian countries and a negative effect on SDG3 during periods of economic prosperity. Financial stability has a positive effect on SDG3 and SDG7 in countries where the banking system have high capital buffer. The results show that the effect of financial stability on sustainable development depends on how sustainable development is measured.

Community Bargaining with Urban Growth: The Case of J Village in Guangzhou.

The past several decades have seen China undergo a rapid urbanization process. During periods of economic prosperity, cities expropriate outlying lands, often villages, for economic development with the support of various local and national government programs designed to encourage urban expansion. However, the autonomy of the villages has not been paid enough attention. How does incorporation into an urban development zone affect the community identity and autonomy of a village? How does the village bargain with external urban institutions? This research is based on ethnographic research and interviews conducted in 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2021. The results reveal that villagers are generally willing to accept the loss of their collective land in exchange for a larger share of the promised prosperity of industrialization, but over time they tend to find that the immediate benefits of expropriation are outweighed by long-term costs. They lose the support of the state and are exposed to new vulnerabilities, such as pollution and economic instability. Indeed, they agree to undertake unknown future risks in exchange for short-term gains. They cannot gain the right to the city, but gradually lose control of the village.

Government Subsidies and Enterprise Innovation

The current round of COVID-19 has increased the uncertainty of the economic environment, which may have an impact on government policies and enterprise innovation. Therefore, this paper tries to analyze the impact of government subsidies on enterprise innovation behavior under different business circles. According to the empirical results of a-share listed companies from 2017 to 2019, government subsidies play a significant positive influence on enterprise innovation behavior, and the business cycle plays a counter-cyclical role in the relationship between government subsidies and enterprise innovation behavior. That is, in the period of economic prosperity, the business cycle negatively adjusts the relationship between government subsidies and enterprise innovation. During the economic depression, the business cycle positively regulates the relationship between government subsidies and enterprise innovation. The grouped test shows that the above effects are concentrated in the enterprises located in the eastern region, while in the enterprises located in the non-eastern region, the influence of government subsidies on enterprise innovation does not change significantly in the fluctuation of business cycle. In this paper, the conclusion shows that it is necessary for government departments to attach great importance to the influence of business cycle on enterprise innovation behavior and formulate more targeted fiscal policies.

Post-Covid tourism planning: based on the Azores residents’ perceptions about the development of regional tourism

ABSTRACT During 2020, in the context of COVID-19 pandemic, many touristic destinations noticed a drop above 70% of tourists compared to the previous year - 2019. Moreover, some destinations registered a drop in more than 80% in overnight stays compared to 2019. Therefore, in the current period of economic crisis, residents' perceptions of the impacts of tourism may differ substantially from those relating to periods of economic prosperity. Furthermore, the island destinations are more likely to suffer the adverse effects of tourism arising from their inadequate planning. The present study aims to know the current perceptions of residents in an insular region concerning the impacts of tourism development on their islands of residence. In this sense, several statistical methods were used in the scope of a quantitative approach, including some algorithms of Cluster Analysis, and Categorical Principal Component Analysis. Throughout this study, it is possible to identify the “Improve public infrastructure” as the most positive impact of this new tourism paradigm for this ultra-peripheral territory. It becomes clear that the Azores regional actors should follow the sustainable development strategy (including sustainable tourism) if this destination desires to prosper in the post-pandemic period as a potential rural tourism destination.

Determinants of bank income smoothing using loan loss provisions in the United Kingdom

Purpose This paper examines the determinants of bank income smoothing using loan loss provisions in the United Kingdom or Great Britain from 1999 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach The study used ordinary least square (OLS) regression and applying the HAC robust standard error correction test. Findings The findings showed that UK banks use loan loss provision for income smoothing purposes. Income smoothing is greater in times of high economic policy uncertainty. The extent of bank income smoothing is reduced by foreign bank presence, UK GAAP adoption, IFRS9 adoption, and high levels of voice and accountability. Also, there is reduced income smoothing using loan loss provisions during a financial crisis and in periods of economic prosperity. Research limitations/implications The implication is that economic conditions, institutional governance and accounting disclosure rules can influence the extent of bank income smoothing in the United Kingdom. The findings of the study contribute to several studies that explore the determinants of bank income smoothing. Originality/value No study has extensively examined the determinants of bank income smoothing in Great Britain or the United Kingdom. The present study fills this gap in the literature.

A framework to analyze the dynamics of the socioeconomic metabolism of countries: A Portuguese case study

AbstractSocioeconomic metabolism dynamics are relevant to identify (un)sustainable development pathways in different economies, particularly if the evolution of resource productivity of critical economic sectors can be quantified. This paper offers a four‐step methodological framework to quantify these dynamics for an economy in a way that can be replicated for a series of years and countries. This methodological framework is based on the compilation of economic and physical flows in the form of input‐output tables in a time series, making use of publicly available data. The data download and processing were automatized using Python, creating an expedited analysis process. The results characterize the flows through and within a country and allow the user to identify structural changes in the economy by tracking both monetary and physical flows for 17 material groups and up to 37 economic sectors. The application of the methodological framework is illustrated in a case study covering the 2008 economic crisis in Portugal, in which the socioeconomic metabolism, the underlying structural changes, and the corresponding environmental impacts are characterized. The use of this information for the design of decoupling policies is discussed, in view of promoting sustainable dematerialization during periods of economic prosperity.

FDI spillovers and firm productivity during crisis: Empirical evidence from transition economies

Most studies on foreign direct investment (FDI) are nested within periods of economic prosperity. Our study investigates the impact of FDI spillovers on productivity during the global financial crisis (2006–2014) and the accompanying credit shortage. A dynamic panel analysis of firm-level data from two neighbouring but distinct transition economies, Croatia and Slovenia, reveals that the impact of the crisis may go as far as halting the process of learning through spillovers if firms have difficulties in accessing external funds. The implications of the study may prove particularly beneficial to policy makers grappling with the economic crisis following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Do Economic Performance Indicators Support Firms’ Claiming a Goodwill Impairment Loss During a Prosperous Year?

Results from the academic literature stream support both the informative and uninformative aspects of goodwill accounting. However, gaps exist in the literature stream pertaining to the timing and managerial motivation for claiming goodwill impairment losses. Our study fills a gap in the literature by examining firms’ goodwill impairment loss write-offs during the year of 2006, a period of economic prosperity. We examine the association of firms’ goodwill impairment losses with both economic performance and accounting indicator variables. Our findings do not support the informative role of goodwill accounting. Further, goodwill impairment losses provide a marginal increase in the explanatory power of operating earnings as a predictor of the following period’s operating cash flows.

Shedding light on the convergence debate: Using luminosity data to investigate economic convergence in Ecuador

AbstractThe objective of this research is to analyze convergence in incomes per capita in Ecuador over the period 1992–2013. Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s satellite data capturing nighttime luminosity by region to proxy income, we undertake an analysis of economic convergence between provinces and cantons in Ecuador over the period 1992–2013. Traditional regression analysis alongside dynamic distribution analysis is used to verify the existence and determine the nature of convergence among Ecuadorian territories. What is found is that economic convergence across Ecuador’s provinces can be confirmed with a speed of convergence approximating Barro’s iron‐law of 2% per annum. In contrast to the expectations of finding convergence over recent years, the major progress in economic convergence was made over the 1992–2002 period. This was the period with the highest political and economic uncertainty. Investigating convergence in human development indicators such as infant mortality rates suggests that the boom‐financed period of economic prosperity did however coincide with a significant catchup of provinces lagging in human development achievements to leaders in this dimension.

Pervasive Arctic lead pollution suggests substantial growth in medieval silver production modulated by plague, climate, and conflict

Lead pollution in Arctic ice reflects large-scale historical changes in midlatitude industrial activities such as ancient lead/silver production and recent fossil fuel burning. Here we used measurements in a broad array of 13 accurately dated ice cores from Greenland and Severnaya Zemlya to document spatial and temporal changes in Arctic lead pollution from 200 BCE to 2010 CE, with interpretation focused on 500 to 2010 CE. Atmospheric transport modeling indicates that Arctic lead pollution was primarily from European emissions before the 19th-century Industrial Revolution. Temporal variability was surprisingly similar across the large swath of the Arctic represented by the array, with 250- to 300-fold increases in lead pollution observed from the Early Middle Ages to the 1970s industrial peak. Superimposed on these exponential changes were pronounced, multiannual to multidecadal variations, marked by increases coincident with exploitation of new mining regions, improved technologies, and periods of economic prosperity; and decreases coincident with climate disruptions, famines, major wars, and plagues. Results suggest substantial overall growth in lead/silver mining and smelting emissions-and so silver production-from the Early through High Middle Ages, particularly in northern Europe, with lower growth during the Late Middle Ages into the Early Modern Period. Near the end of the second plague pandemic (1348 to ∼1700 CE), lead pollution increased sharply through the Industrial Revolution. North American and European pollution abatement policies have reduced Arctic lead pollution by >80% since the 1970s, but recent levels remain ∼60-fold higher than at the start of the Middle Ages.

Economic Crisis and Macro-economic Status of Small and Medium Enterprises

Summary Small and medium enterprises comprise an optimal unity with large enterprises. Such approach provides an effective long-term economic structure. In the EU, the number of employees and added value of SMEs grew until 2008, followed by a stagnant trend during the crisis in the EU. As early as 2010, the added value started recovering, while a number of companies and employees stagnated. As for BiH, SMEs revenues dropped in the period from 2008 to 2009, followed by their recovery and growth, while the investments maintained constant decline to the end of the observed period. Macroeconomic indicators do not indicate a radical change of trends from 2008 to 2011. In that period, the EU recorded significant oscillations. Correlation analysis for BiH has shown an interconnection between GDP and industrial production, with SMEs revenues. The ratio of investments and SMEs revenues does not indicate the existence of a correlation. The economic crisis and instability of BiH affect the poor economic situation. BiH underutilizes EU funds for SME development. The EU Programme for SMEs and job creation has failed to demonstrate significant results in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Balkan region. The economic crisis and instability affect the economic situation in BiH. Stimulus of creating new and expansion of existing SMEs is a prerequisite for economic recovery of the country in times of crisis and in the periods of economic prosperity.

“Telling our stories”: Print media interpretations of Moscow lesbians' life stories in 2004 and 2005

ABSTRACTThis article analyzes print media interviews of Moscow lesbians in Moskovsky Komsomolets in 2004 and 2005 using qualitative content analysis. The qualitative content analysis shows recurring and consistent themes: (1) the stereotypes lesbians face; (2) public negativity toward same-sex relations and the impact on their families; (3) the expectations of heterosexuality and all that that entails; (4) the existence of lesbian-only spaces in Russia and the importance of those spaces; and (5) the complexities of navigating motherhood, previous heterosexual relationships, and current partnerships. Analysis of print media representations of female same-sex sexuality in a period of economic prosperity, popular culture visibility, and before restrictive laws were passed that suppress homosexuality adds to the previous literature on lesbianism in Russia.

Iasos di Caria e il rilancio del suo porto in età bizantina: il ruolo del marmo

Placed inside one of the deep inlets indenting the Carian Coast, Iasos knew a period of economic prosperity in Justinian times, thanks to the increased demand of the polychrome marble quarried locally. At that time the marble, extracted from the nearby reliefs, was used mainly in revetment slabs. These were used in open book compositions which embellished many imperial buildings. The marbles were sawn into slabs in the quadriporticus of the mausoleum of the 2nd century A.D. placed nearby the East harbor. In that building, placed close to the aqueduct, were found numerous marble blocks, showing saw traces, abandoned over thick emery layers. The East harbor seems therefore the starting place for the marble artifacts diffusion, ascertained on eastern Mediterranean shores and Italy. At the time probably the quarries were imperial properties; so it is likely that here worked also Constantinopolitan stonemasons. These exchanges with Constantinople brought in Iasos the coloristic taste typical of the period: this is attested by the agora basilica, where, in the Justinian age, different kinds of marble were used, some maybe imported from the capital.

Scientific And Literary Progress During Medieval Period With Special Reference To Medicine (750-945)

During the Abbasid period, Muslim culture and civilization was at its zenith. It was a period of economic prosperity and of great intellectual awakening. The Abbasid Caliphate provided the most congenial atmosphere for the advancement of learning and education. In fact, the reign of Mamun-ar-Rashid who has deservedly been called the 'Augustus of Arabs' formed the culmination of the intellectual achievements of the Muslims. He was followed by a brilliant succession of Caliphs who continued his work. Muslims gained access to the Greek medical knowledge of Hippocrates, Discords, and Galen through the translations of their works in the seventh and eighth centuries. These initiatives by Muslims could be seen in the different aspects of the healing arts that were developed. The translation movement of the twelfth century in Latin Europe affected every known field of science, none more so than medicine. The present paper is an attempt to give a detailed contribution of Muslims to science with special reference to medicine. It is in this context the present paper has been analyzed.

Managerial Motivation for Claiming a Goodwill Impairment Loss During a Period of Economic Prosperity

This study examines the link between goodwill impairment losses and firms’ relative economic performance during a period of economic prosperity. Results from the academic literature stream support both the informative and uninformative aspects of goodwill accounting. From the informative perspective, goodwill impairment losses improve earnings’ predictability of cash flows and stock returns. From the uninformative side, goodwill impairment losses have been linked to opportunistic management behavior. Thus, gaps exist in the literature stream pertaining to the timing and managerial motivation for claiming goodwill impairment losses. Our study fills a gap in the literature by examining firms’ goodwill impairment loss write-offs during a particular period, specifically the year of 2006, a period of economic prosperity. By examining the association of firms’ goodwill impairment loss write-offs during this period with both economic performance and accounting indicator variables, managerial motivation for claiming goodwill impairment losses becomes clearer. We find economic performance indicators do not support firms’ goodwill impairment loss write-offs. Further, accounting indicator variables are associated with firms’ goodwill impairment loss write-offs. Also, goodwill impairment losses provide a marginal increase in the explanatory power of operating earnings as a predictor of the following period’s operating cash flows. These results do not support the informative role of goodwill accounting. Rather, firms manage their goodwill impairment loss write-offs in conjunction with other accruals within a much broader earnings management strategy. Our study extends prior research related to firms’ contracting incentives with respect to goodwill impairment loss write-offs.

Проблемы латиноамериканской демократии в интерпретации исследователей

The article deals with problems of the modern Latin American democracy in the context of various research methods, factors of stability and proneness to conflict, as well as new challenges for democracy set by the developing modern society. The author analyzes the leading experts' opinions in the field – mainly Spanish and Latin American researchers involved in modern social and political problems. Much attention is given to: political development issues in the region; transformation of the political parties' and civil society's role in response to consolidation of Latin American democracies; the youth activity as a new political phenomena; the increase of social protests, and the phenomenon of exaggerated social expectations. The important role of the social policy in stabilization of the political situation in the region, as well as in a successful democratic consolidation process is noted. Almost all countries of the region used the period of economic prosperity and growth (2003–2013) to develop and implement a targeted social policy aimed at the social sphere development, employment growth, and the improvement of education and public health systems. But the majority of successful social projects were devoted mainly to solving the most daunting and morbid problem of the Latin American society – poverty, which has been significantly lowered. Thus, the state targeted social policy played a significant role in shaping a positive attitude towards democracy. However, even over a ten-year period of economic growth, a state was unable to solve all problems accumulated. These challenges have been left unattended. It poses a serious threat to political stability. It is noted that the assessment of the democratic development prospects in the leading countries is closely related to social pessimism, which has been spreading among different classes of the Latin American society in recent years, and is associated not only with the worsening economic situation, but also with the growing disappointment in possibilities of democracy itself. Ineffective public administration, bureaucratization of state agencies and corruption cause irritation and discontent among the population. At the same time, along with criticism and emphasis on the subject of “disappointment” in politics, the commanding view among researchers is that the liberal democracy must be defended despite all its drawbacks and weaknesses, as the challenges for democracy set by the modern developing society, however serious they may be, are merely the tests of its prospects and possibilities, and not the evidence of its inconsistency.