Period Of Turmoil Research Articles

Youth Transition, Culture and Identity in Timor-Leste

Over the years, young people in Timor-Leste have faced difficulties accessing employment, and youth violence continues to rise. This study examines how historical events and social changes have shaped youth behaviour in Timor-Leste. It also explores the cultural representation and identity of youth who lived through periods of social turmoil and political tension. Additionally, the study addresses social issues that impact the transition of today's youth. Practical measures to improve the well-being of today's youth are crucial, including encouraging job accessibility, developing relevant youth policies, and enhancing youth-related activities.

Comparative analysis of newly graduated nurse support through periods of turmoil: lessons learnt for building a future workforce for uncertain times

AimTo compare newly graduated nurse retention and employment experiences across two distinct graduate nurse programs through periods of health care delivery stability and instability.BackgroundA global nursing workforce shortage, coupled with increasing demands on health services, requires a specific focus on building capability and improved retention of nurses. The graduate nurse cohort is a critical supply source that potentially can be harnessed if their needs are better understood.DesignA longitudinal (2015–2023) cross-sectional design was used to examine retention and experiences of newly graduated nurses from two (‘traditional, unit-based’ versus ‘mobile’) supported programs.MethodsRetention rates were obtained through analysis of employment databases. Descriptive data on impressions and experiences was collected at two time points via a short series of questions contained in a survey, from graduate nurses who remained in employment.ResultsRetention rates for graduate nurses were high (85%) during periods of stability, but even higher for the ‘mobile’ graduate nurse program. Both programs were adversely affected by instability however, the impact was substantial (around 50%) for the peak period of instability (2020) in the ‘mobile’ program. Survey data indicated that during the period of instability graduate nurses in traditional, unit-based programs had a more positive experience when compared with graduate nurses participating in the ‘mobile’ program; This contrasts with the period of stability, where graduate nurses in the ‘mobile’ program indicated more positive responses.DiscussionFindings re-emphasise the importance of supportive structures for newly graduated nurses as effective in retaining these staff. However, for the first time, evidence is provided that ‘mobility’, diversity, and difference can be viewed positively by graduate nurses. Furthermore, it provides improved understanding about mechanisms, support and boundaries, all interrelating factors, in ‘stretching’ capacity of graduate nurses.ConclusionLongitudinal analysis of graduate nurses, participating in two diverse programs, through periods of stability and instability offers insights into their challenges and outcomes. These insights can directly inform targeted strategies for inclusion in supported programs that lead to improved graduate nurse retention and contribute to building an agile nursing workforce.

Arctic Governance in the Face of Climate Change: A Case for “Inclusive Regionalism”

Abstract Arctic governance has entered a period of turmoil following the March 2022 Arctic Council pause in operations and, subsequently, the strained relations between the member states. As climate change dramatically alters the Arctic environment, opening the region to new economic possibilities and more global attention, the need for cooperation is greater than ever. This article examines the current geopolitical and environmental pressures that are undermining the Arctic Council’s legitimacy and operations at a critical juncture in Arctic governance. It contends that the Arctic Council must rethink how it engages with Arctic Council observers and the wider global community to ensure that pressing ecological, economic, and social issues are addressed judiciously to prevent potentially irreparable harm in the region. Specifically, the case is made that a shift to “inclusive regionalism” could secure the Arctic Council’s position as the pre-eminent forum to address Arctic issues and to re-establish the spirit of collaboration that reigned for a quarter century.

Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe-haven asset during the period of turmoil? Evidence from the currency, bond and stock markets

Market turmoil, such as that induced by Covid-19, tends to create huge pressure on financial markets, forcing decision-makers and investors to analyze risks and manage their investment portfolios. Taking the market turmoil induced by Covid-19 as an example, this study addresses the question of whether Bitcoin exhibits a hedging and safe haven property during the period of turmoil. We employ the TVP-VAR approach to investigate return spillovers and interconnectedness among Bitcoin and stock, money, and bond markets. In addition, we employ three portfolio techniques, including minimum variance portfolios, minimum correlation portfolios, and minimum connectedness portfolios, to evaluate the Sharpe ratios of the portfolios as well as the cumulative return before and during the epidemic. The results demonstrate that incorporating Bitcoin decreases total connectedness across markets, and Bitcoin provides stronger hedging and safe haven capabilities. Notably, the portfolio with minimum connectedness approach reaches the highest Sharpe ratio during the pandemic.

Amplified psychological reaction to civil unrest among Holocaust survivor descendants.

The evidence regarding the intergenerational effects of the Holocaust points to a heightened sensitivity to traumatic and stressful events, as well as to threats. These effects were found across at least three generations: the survivors themselves, their children, and their grandchildren. More specifically, this sensitivity is manifested in increased psychological reactions to adverse circumstances, especially when such situations trigger associations with the Holocaust. During 2023 Israel has experienced unprecedented civil unrest and protests following the government's plan to promote a judicial overhaul. Many expressed fears for Israeli democracy and the integrity of the social fabric in Israel. The current study examined how Holocaust descendants (i.e., children and grandchildren of Holocaust survivors) experienced this prolonged social unrest. A web-based random sample of 706 Israeli Jews born after World War II completed questionnaires several months before the unrest began (Wave 1, 2022) and seven months into the unrest (Wave 2, 2023). Supporting most of our hypotheses, Holocaust descendants reported higher civil unrest salience (i.e., more preoccupation with the political and social upheaval) relative to comparison descendants (i.e., children and grandchildren of those not directly exposed to the Holocaust). Relative to comparison descendants, Holocaust descendants were also at a greater risk of reporting exacerbation in anxiety since the judicial overhaul was introduced, but not in depression or somatisation symptoms. Results remained significant after controlling Wave 1 distress level, background characteristics, level of engagement in civil unrest, and participants' viewpoint on the judicial overhaul. The findings further corroborate unique reactions to stress among Holocaust descendants, this time by highlighting increased preoccupation and increased exacerbation in anxiety during a period of prolonged political and social turmoil.

Decrypting Metaverse crypto Market: A nonlinear analysis of investor sentiment

This study aims to investigate the role of investor sentiment in the emerging metaverse market, a novel entrepreneurship model. Empirical analyses are conducted through various causality tests to reveal the predictive power of investor sentiment on the price developments of the metaverse market. The Nonlinear Granger causality test indicates causal effects running from BTC (Bitcoin), GT (Google Trend), and FGI (Fear-Greed Index) to MVI (Metaverse Index). Further examination of these interactions through MS-VAR analysis reveals that under bear market regimes, both investor sentiment proxies (GT and FGI) and BTC have a statistically significant causal effect on the returns of MVI. This finding suggests that metaverse crypto market returns are substantially influenced by investor sentiment during periods of anxiety and turmoil, evident in steep bear markets, rather than during periods of tranquility and euphoria characteristic of bull markets. The results of the time-varying approach confirm this finding by indicating spikes in causal effects towards the end of 2021, during which a severe crash in cryptocurrency markets occurred. Overall, the causal links during market downturns may stem from the fear of missing out (FOMO) in retail investors, who mainly dominate the sentimental factors utilized in this study.

Quantile and time-frequency spillover between rare earth and its interlinked markets: A geopolitical perspective

Underlying vulnerability of geopolitical risk for rare earth markets and its interlinked markets motivated this research is to explore their nexus by using different connectedness models. In doing so, the current study employed three diversified set of methodologies namely, quantile vector autoregression, BK framework, and cross-quantilogram to investigate connectedness structure across different market conditions. The dataset of this study spanning from March 29, 2018 to April 28, 2023, covering several turmoil periods. Surprisingly, the empirical findings reveal significant evidence of connectedness between all markets. Notably, in lower quantile, geopolitical uncertainty, rare earth, and green energy stocks are the major transmitters, while oil is the major receiver. At the same time, rare earth, clean energy, technology, natural resource markets, and all green energy tokens except carbon are the significant transmitters in the upper quantile. In contrast, BK measures demonstrate that total frequency connectedness is more significant in the short and long run. While, cross-quantilogram results reveal that connectedness is more pronounced in the long run for rare earth, clean energy, technology, and mining stocks. Specifically, it is important to note that spillover effect are more substantial and differ across different crisis episodes. In addition, large swings in the connectedness index between geopolitical risk and chosen markets is observed after the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine War. The empirical results offer several important implications for investors and policymakers to apply effective risk management techniques and safeguard investments especially during economic turbulence.

Pure contagion vs. financial interconnection in the subprime crisis context: Short- and long-term dynamics

This paper examines the difference between pure contagion and financial interconnection by studying the U.S. and some American and Asian markets in the subprime crisis context. These markets are affected by the mortgage crisis, with data available from January 1, 2003 to December 30, 2011. The paper first identifies the turmoil period via the wavelet technique and adopts cointegration and Granger causality approaches by estimating vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) models. Based on daily returns from stock market indices in five American countries (Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Argentina, and the U.S.) and eight Asian ones (Hong Kong, Japan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, and China), the results show eight cases of pure contagion and 10 cases of financial interconnection. In addition, there were high co-movements in the short term and low co-movements in the long term for financial interconnection cases. These findings have several implications for investors looking to diversify their portfolios internationally and for portfolio managers to expect and limit market risk. The results provide additional guidance to regulators and policymakers.

Sustainable development and investor confidence: The safe‐haven appeal of green‐bond issuing firms

AbstractThis study investigates the performance of a green‐linked portfolio as a safe haven and hedge against traditional assets during periods of market turmoil, such as the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia‐Ukraine war. Utilizing a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach, the study analyzes the portfolio's correlations with global asse like SENSEX 30, BSE ESG 100, Gold, S&P Green Bond Index, and US 10‐year Treasury bonds, demonstrating its stability. Our findings demonstrate that the green‐linked portfolio outperforms both individual stocks and major indices as well as traditional safe havens like gold and US Treasury bonds. The portfolio exhibits superior risk‐adjusted returns and lower volatility, particularly during crisis periods. The portfolio's strong positive correlation with the S&P Green Bond Index highlights its alignment with the broader green market. Interestingly, with a 95% hedge effectiveness, it emerged as a viable safe haven investment, surpassing gold in stability during market uncertainties. Further, forecast matrix results and VAR analysis confirm the portfolio's potential as a diversifier and safe haven asset, characterized by significant positive returns. Additionally, the SAP‐LAP framework provides clarity to stakeholders on safe‐haven options within green markets. Moreover, while green bond markets are more mature in developed economies, our results suggest that green‐linked investments in emerging markets, such as India, offer a promising avenue for investors seeking both financial returns and environmental impact. Overall, the study provides empirical evidence supporting the inclusion of green‐linked assets in diversified portfolios to enhance risk management and capture long‐term growth opportunities.

Fashion and Politics, The Politics of Fashion: Józef Simmler’s Portrait of Emilia Włodkowska, Society Portrait and Haute Couture

The article proposes an analytical approach tuned to 19th-century society portraiture and tests it on Józef Simmler’s Portrait of Emilia Włodkowska (1865, National Museum in Warsaw). The pictured ball gown was likely by Worth and presented as being worn in Paris rather than in Warsaw to respect the politically-motivated Polish national mourning (1861–1866), culminating during the January Uprising (1863–1864) against Russian rule, that precluded organizing and attending balls at home. The portrait was an act of public performance—and indeed it was publicly exhibited at the artist’s posthumous exhibition in Warsaw in 1868. Its staging and costuming reflected the sitter’s particular agenda fine-tuned to multifarious current contexts: she promoted her Warsaw fashion house and herself as a respectable society lady and competent agent of French fashion in the period of political turmoil and resultant expectations concerning Polish women’s dress and conduct. The portrait showcases Simmler’s juste milieu approach and illustrates a very current shift in the fashionable female silhouette, advocated by Worth, while referencing the dress and artistic tradition of the 17th and 18th centuries and drawing inspiration from the new medium of photography.

Comparing the hedge and safe haven properties of individual commodities for China and United States equity sectors

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the safe haven benefits of 13 individual commodities for the USA and Chinese equity sectors during the financial turmoil period. Therefore, sectoral investors in the USA and China could invest in those specific commodities that provide stable returns during the health crisis and financial turmoil periods.Design/methodology/approachThe daily data spans from February 1, 2015, to July 28, 2022. The present study applies several different approaches to analyzing the data set. The author apply the cross-quantilogram (C.Q) methodology to capture the lead-lag bivariate quantile interdependence between two stationary time series variables during the bearish, bullish and normal periods. Then the study used the hedging effectiveness (HE) and conditional diversification benefits (CDB) approaches to capture the hedging and diversification benefits of commodity classes and individual commodities.FindingsThe noteworthy findings of the quantilogram methodology reveal that livestock and agriculture commodities serve as better refuges as compared to the precious metals and energy index in both countries. On average, precious metals failed to serve as safe haven investments for the USA and Chinese equity market sectors. All energy commodities except soybean oil had strong comovements with China and the US equity sectors during bearish, bullish and normal periods. Lean hogs, fiddler cattle and live cattle are perfect hedging assets for both countries due to the presence of blue color at normal and bullish periods in all C.Q heat-maps. The HE table depicts that commodity indices and individual commodities failed to serve as hedging assets for the Chinese equity sectors. But commodities are semistrong hedging assets for the US equity sectors and the S&P 500 due to the average HE values being 0.7 and above. The CDB values depict that precious metals provide diversification benefits in both equity markets.Practical implicationsThe present study results have important implications for equity sector investors of the USA and China in suggesting particular commodity during the financial turmoil period. During the bearish market condition, risk averse equity sector investors can invest in livestock commodities and agriculture commodities, due to their relatively stable returns. In addition, policymakers can use the analysis insights to formulate policy tools and monitoring mechanisms, effectively mitigating the unfavorable effects arising from asymmetric dependence between commodities and equity sectors during the upper tail, middle and lower tail. Policymakers can suggest equity investors to invest in which commodity during extreme conditions.Originality/valueThe current study has the following points of originality. First, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the individual commodities’ roles as safe havens taken from all four major commodity classes. More importantly, it is also noticeable that the safe haven abilities of commodities are usually tested for the stock market, but the equity sectors are ignored. Therefore, the present study used both stock market and sectoral indices data.

MEASURING CONNECTEDNESS AND NETWORK ANALYSIS IN STOCK MARKETS FOR DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Countries are experiencing a surge in political, economic, and financial integration, consequently shaping international market linkages. Financial crises can rapidly spread between countries, emphasizing the need to monitor and assess stock market connections. This paper investigates the degree of financial market connectedness using daily stock returns from January 1997 to August 2017 for 13 countries, both developed and developing. The connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009-2012) is applied to examine the connectedness of stock market returns and the direction of spillovers for all stock markets. This study also analyzes the dynamic connectedness from the U.S. stock market to all other stock markets. The results indicate that the U.S. stock market is the most influential stock market to the others. The results of the dynamic analysis show that connectedness changes over time, specifically during turmoil periods. Most developed countries are transmitters of return spillover shocks while developing countries are recipients.

Announcement effect of tender offer share buyback around turmoil period – evidence from India

The announcement of a buyback informs the market about the company’s decision to repurchase its own shares. This announcement highlights the company’s price valuation and the inefficiencies that exist in the market. This study examines the share buyback announcement effect during the COVID-19 period. The study considered the stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) that offered share buyback under tender offer mode during the pre-pandemic period between April 2016 and February 2020 and the post-pandemic period between March 2020 and March 2022. 75 firms in the pre-pandemic period and 43 in the post-pandemic period that announced share buyback under the tender offer method were analyzed. The event study methodology using a market model was employed to determine the presence of abnormal returns during the event period, which consisted of –21 days and +21 days. The findings of the study revealed the existence of abnormal returns in and around the announcement date. Besides, statistically significant cumulative abnormal average returns (CAAR) were also found on the event day, i.e., on Day 0. The study found that the impact of buyback announcements on stock returns significantly differed before and after COVID-19 for 10 and 21-day periods, with no significant differences for shorter periods. These insights can help traders and fund managers make informed portfolio adjustments during turbulent market periods surrounding buyback announcements. AcknowledgementThe authors express their sincere gratitude and special thanks to Dr. Krishna T.A., Assistant Professor, Department of Professional Studies, School of Commerce, Finance and Accountancy, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bangalore, India, for encouraging, motivating and providing all the required support throughout this empirical investigation and to accomplish this research task.

Socially responsible banking: Weathering the Covid-19 storm

This paper investigates the impact of socially responsible banking activities on banks’ risk profiles, using data from the period of turmoil caused by the Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak in Europe. Our findings show that socially responsible banking activities served as a risk-hedging strategy at the peak of the pandemic. Furthermore, we reveal the role of banks’ environmental and social engagement in reducing the exposure to country-level Covid-19 cases and public perception using a Google Trends sentiment analysis. Finally, in explaining the ESG-bank risk relationship, we identify a mediating role of the Covid-19 “panic” as a viable economic channel.

Anticipated organizational identity change, job anxiety and affective commitment during macro-level turbulence: a cross-lagged study in the shifting sands of Brexit

ABSTRACT The current study examines how events external to organizations raise a challenge to perceptions of organizational identity continuity leading to a negative affective and attitudinal workforce response. This 5-wave study surveys full-time employees (N = 1309) from around the UK during a period of socio-political turmoil during negotiations of terms of withdrawal from the EU (Brexit). Drawing on Conservation of Resources Theory and Affective Events Theory we hypothesize that employees’ anticipation of change in organizational identity will lead to negative individual-level affective responses of job anxiety and a subsequent reduction in affective commitment. Utilizing a Random Intercept Cross Lagged Panel Model, the results show that within-person increases in perceptions of anticipated organizational identity change are followed by increases in job anxiety, which is followed by reductions in affective organizational commitment. Thus, the turbulent external context challenges employees’ enduring sense of organizational identity which can have profound effects on employees and their relationship with their employer.

The Relationship Between Parenting Styles and Self-Harm Behavior in Adolescents

Individuals are required to be able to adapt to the many changes that occur during adolescence, so support from the family is needed to deal with these changes. Normal development in this period of turmoil with rapid physical, cognitive and emotional transformations is influenced by parental interest and emotional involvement as well as parenting styles that determine the overall climate and communication in the family. Parents apply different parenting styles, ranging from authoritarian, democratic and permissive parenting. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between parenting patterns in adolescents and self-harm behavior in adolescents. This study was an analytic study with a case control design. The sample was 42 students of SMPN 1 Plaosan and their parents using a total population technique for the case group and a simple random sampling technique for control group. The independent variable was parenting style, the dependent variable was self harm behavior in adolescents. The instrument in this study used a questionnaire. To analyze the correlation used chi square test was used with α 0.05. The research results showed that most parents provided an authoritarian parenting style in the case group and some parents provided a democratic parenting style in the control group. The chi square test results obtained p = 0.00 (p = <0.05). The conclusion in this study is that there is a correlation between parenting patterns and self-harm behavior in adolescents. It is recommended that parents provide democratic parenting patterns for their children.

Does Bullion Appeal As A Hedge Or A Safe Haven For Oil Wild Ride During The Russia-Ukraine War? A Wavelet Approach

In this research, we empirically evaluate whether Indian bullion market instru- ments glitter as a hedge or a safe haven against oil volatility shock before and during the Russia-Ukraine war. The wavelet coherence mechanism is used to encapsulate the hedge or a safe haven potential over the time-frequency horizon. We find evidence that gold and silver act as a medium horizon investment hedge for crude oil during pre - and invasion periods. However, the results unveil that gold and silver act as a weak safe haven for crude oil during the turmoil period, partly consistent with the prior research findings. The results further show that there is a positive relationship between gold and oil at the beginning of the war and at intervals, 29/06/2022 to 15/07/2022, illustrating that gold acts as a diversifier for crude oil

The comovements of tail risks in time and frequency domains: evidence from US and emerging Asian stock markets

The study applies the wavelet local multiple correlations to investigate the level of comovements among the tail risks of US and emerging Asian stock markets in both time and frequency domains. Through this empirical investigation, we address the question of how the transmission of tail risk across the concerned stock markets is changing over specific timescales, varying from short term to long term. Empirical results from the multivariate time–frequency correlations show that the comovements of tail risks are distinctively higher during periods of economic and political turmoil in the short term. The multivariate long-term comovements are highly stable and extremely strong which can be taken as evidence of long-term integration. In contrast, the bivariate time–frequency correlations are remarkably weaker in the short term not only during periods of crises but over most of the sample period. The results of the bivariate analysis also highlight the instability of the long-term pairwise correlations of the tail risks, showing that it is susceptible to sudden changes, which indicates that the tail risks of the US and emerging Asian stock markets are actually not completely integrated in the long term. This finding also implies that the tail risks of US and emerging Asian stock markets are nonlinearly connected in the long term.

Albanija tokom 1939-1944. prema poljskim diplomatskim dokumentima

On April 7, 1939, Italy's invasion of Albania marked a significant escalation in Benito Mussolini's imperialist aspirations. This invasion, driven by Mussolini's expansionist policies, swiftly resulted in the conquest of Albania. The country's strategic importance to Italy had long been recognized, making it a target for Italian territorial ambitions. The invasion precipitated the rapid departure of King Ahmet Zogu from Albania, as Italian forces quickly established control over the country. This event underscored Albania's vulnerability to external powers and its susceptibility to being manipulated for geopolitical gains. In this study, I aim to provide insights into the events surrounding Albania's occupation during World War II, drawing from Polish documents of the time. Polish diplomats and ambassadors were extensively informed about the situation in Albania and were able to offer objective perspectives, often emphasizing Poland's lack of political interest in the region. Additionally, the analysis incorporates data obtained from popular Polish newspapers of the era, which published articles and featured numerous photographs, providing valuable context to understand the political dynamics in Albania during this period. The role of the Polish ambassador in Rome, Wieniawa Długoszewski, was pivotal in informing Italy's connections about the invasion of Albania.Through diplomatic channels, Długoszewski facilitated communication regarding the unfolding events in Albania, contributing to a better understanding of the situation among allied nations. Following Italy's occupation of Albania, King Ahmet Zogu sought refuge in various countries, including a visit to Warsaw in July 1939. This visit, documented through studies and photographs from the time, sheds light on the diplomatic efforts and interactions between Albania and its allies during this tumultuous period. Additionally, key documents such as Ahmet Zog's letter to Wladyslaw Sikorski, the Polish Prime Minister in London, and Antoni Balinski's correspondence regarding Britain's stance towards Zogu provide valuable insights into the diplomatic maneuvers undertaken by Albania and its allies. Despite efforts to gather comprehensive information, certain gaps remain, such as the absence of a report from a Polish officer who was part of the British mission in Albania. This underscores the challenges in fully understanding Albania's situation post-Italian occupation and during Nazi Germany's subsequent annexation. The impact of World War II on Albania was profound, leading to significant political, social, and economic upheavals. The invasion by Italy and subsequent occupation, followed by Nazi Germany's annexation, plunged Albania into a period of turmoil and conflict. The partisan warfare that ensued, led by communist factions under the direction of Enver Hoxha, further intensified the country's struggles. The aftermath of the war left Albania fundamentally transformed, with the establishment of a communist regime led by Enver Hoxha, which endured for decades. The war's legacy left an indelible mark on Albania, shaping its governance, society, and economy for years to come.

Harnessing volatility cascades with ensemble learning

AbstractThis paper introduces a simple yet effective modification to bootstrap aggregation (bagging) and boosting techniques, aimed at addressing substantial errors arising from parameter estimation, particularly prevalent in macroeconomic and financial forecasting. We propose “egalitarian” bagging and boosting algorithms, where forecasts are derived through an equally weighted combination scheme following variable selection procedures, rather than relying on estimated model parameters. Our empirical work focuses on volatility forecasting, where our approach is applied to a hierarchical model that aggregates a diverse array of volatility components over different time intervals. Significant improvements in predictive accuracy are observed when conventional bagging and boosting approaches are replaced by their “egalitarian” counterparts, across a range of assets and forecast horizons. Notably, these improvements are most pronounced during periods of financial market turmoil, particularly for medium‐ to long‐term predictions. In contrast to boosting, which often yields a sparse model specification, bagging effectively leverages a diverse range of volatility cascades to capture rich information without succumbing to increasing estimation errors. The proposed “egalitarian” algorithm plays a crucial role in facilitating this process, contributing to the superior performance of bagging over other competing approaches.