Period Of Turmoil Research Articles

Volatility spillover and connectedness among REITs, NFTs, cryptocurrencies and other assets: Portfolio implications

ABSTRACT We investigate the return and volatility spillovers among NFTs, REITs, and other major financial assets from January 2019 to November 2022, using connectedness approaches. The findings indicate that total return and volatility connectedness increased during the COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war. REITs partially maintained their historical independence from shocks from other assets, while NFTs emerged as the new portfolio diversifiers. Findings suggest that investors can use REITs or a combination of NFTs, OIL, GOLD, and REITs with other assets to hedge against volatile assets during periods of financial turmoil. These findings have significant implications for heterogeneous market participants aiming to identify optimal portfolio diversifiers.

Talent management in hospitality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Macao: a contingency approach

PurposeThis study aims to examine talent management (TM) in the hospitality industry in Macao during COVID-19. It deploys a contingency theory perspective (Luthans and Stewart, 1977) to illuminate the heightened uncertainties and challenges talent managers faced during the pandemic and the urgent adaptations to TM practices they embraced in response.Design/methodology/approachAdopting a phenomenological approach, this study analyzed data collected through semi-structured interviews conducted with a representative sample of 20 hotel managers in Macao.FindingsManagers reported four major categories of COVID-19-induced challenges and a corresponding set of contingent TM practices. The four contingent TM practices were found to contribute to the shaping of the next new normal in TM in hospitality and included the following: Contingent TM planning; contingent TM deployment and replacement; talent training and development under contingent arrangements; and changed “talent” attitude and practices in recruitment and retention.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings are limited to the geographical and industry context of the study. This study should be refined with larger samples.Practical implicationsThis study provides a useful framework for guiding professionals on how to manage talent during turmoil periods. It also contributes toward understanding the shifting meaning of talent and TM in hospitality.Originality/valueThis study demonstrates the applicability of contingency theory in managing hospitality talent during turbulent times, which extends TM knowledge and enriches the contingency theory. The findings also facilitate our understanding on how contingent TM practices create processes that lead in setting the new normal.

Impact of geo-political risk on stocks, oil, and gold returns during GFC, COVID-19, and Russian – Ukraine War

The study uses wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence transformation methodologies to examine how geopolitical risk affected the returns on stocks, oil, and gold during the GFC, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine war-three disruptive events that affected the world’s financial markets. For better diversification benefits during the turbulent times, we further investigate the degree of co-movement in frequency and time domains. We observe that GPR has high variations during Russia-Ukraine war period compared to COVID-19 period and is shown to have least variation during the GFC period. WTI crude oil and DJGI indexes are observed to have high variations during GFC, and COVID-19 periods followed by Russia-Ukraine war. We further observe that GOLD offers better diversification opportunity as well as leading movement against WTI and DJGI during disruptive events in financial markets. The results provide new understanding of how geopolitical risk affects financial assets for international investors, fund managers, and regulators, which would further aid to find risky and safer haven possibilities during the turmoil periods.

“Ha! Suck on that Corona, I Found Something to Do”

In the spring of 2020 young people were living in an exceptional period of isolation, messiness and emotional turmoil. The pandemic situation in Finland serves as the background of this study, which focuses on participation and the voice of adolescents in times of crisis. My inquiry is based on 75 diaries collected by diverse museums and archives and originally created by 11- to 18-year-olds during remote schooling, and my aim is to ascertain how they were invited in and responded to making the stuff of history. Combining oral history and media ethnographic methods, I provide an analysis of the diaries focusing on the emotional resilience attached to hobbies, the echo that the narrators’ information habits generate, and the media ecologies that resulted from the crafting and writing of diaries. My main argument is that although the diaries capture the narrators’ reactions to the crisis, the strong presence of their ordinary lives exposes shared generational traits that are worth preserving beyond this strange time. The students were writing in and about the immediate environment in which they lived their lives, which resulted in an uncommon and rich form of oral history that raised new questions about young people’s experiences during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

Comparative study on digital inclusion among socially vulnerable activists and leaderships of organized social movements in Brazil

This article analyses the challenges experienced by activists with social vulnerabilities who continued their activism online or face-to-face during the pandemic, focusing especially on Black and Indigenous women. I have also studied the types of resistance found in the period between March 2020 and July 2021. On the other hand, I will analyse leaders of organized social movements – or those in the process of formalization – to understand how these leaders organized themselves in the digital world. This qualitative and quantitative research was carried out through online questionnaires and online focus groups composed by activists with social vulnerabilities and leaders of organized social movements in different parts of Brazil. Due to a long period of turmoil, social division, self-isolation and perpetual stress have become the daily norm in our country. As we faced various political conflicts and social trials, the strength of our relationships and associations allowed us to endure. This research will also follow the digital difficulties in Brazil, finding levels of partial and total digital exclusion among the analysed groups. Despite the difficulties of navigating the digital world, activists and leaders of Brazilian social movements sought alternatives through resistance and solidarity, including sharing access to the internet via cell phones. This reflection is based on the research New Forms of Representation While Facing Digital Transformation finished in December 2021 for the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Foundation.

Asymmetric efficiency and connectedness among green stocks, halal tourism stocks, cryptocurrencies, and commodities: Portfolio hedging implications

This study examines asymmetric efficiency and connectedness among halal tourism stocks, green stocks, cryptocurrency, gold, and oil using data covering the period from 2018M12–2022M09. Employing asymmetric multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, this study finds gold to be the most efficient asset and halal tourism stocks to be more efficient than green stocks. The asymmetric connectedness approach identifies green stocks as net transmitters of return shocks in all market conditions and halal tourism stocks (oil) as net receivers of return shocks in normal and upward (downward) market conditions. The connectedness among the assets increases during major economic events such as COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war. Portfolio analysis suggests that the minimum connectedness portfolio outperforms all the other methods and shows halal tourism and green stocks offer significant hedging effectiveness. Our findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers seeking to diversify portfolios, manage risks, and regulate information in periods of financial turmoil and asymmetric market conditions.

Imagining the Lived Experience of Democracy in Peru

AbstractAfter more than six years of increasing political instability, in December 2022, Peru entered a period of turmoil marked by nation‐wide state violence. As people all over Peru contest the rise of Dina Boluarte's presidency and the country's history of neoliberal reforms, state authorities use unfounded accusations of terrorism to criminalize demonstrators and sustain militarized repression. This wave of violence—unmatched since the Internal Armed Conflict (1980‐2000)—has overwhelmingly affected Indigenous, rural, and racialized communities. In this essay, our editorial assistant, Alonso Gamarra, shares an intimate perspective of the current unrest in his home country.

Dynamic volatility spillover between oil and marine shipping industry

Oil consumption not only makes up a large percentage of the overall operating expenses for the marine shipping industry, besides that, the tanker sector is a major carrier of global oil supply, which magnifies the relevance of oil market for the shipping industry. In this backdrop, the following study examines the volatility transmission between marine shipping industry’s tanker and dry cargo market and oil market using daily data from May 2006 to August 2021 by employing spillover index methodology. The empirical results suggest pronounced spillovers for the tanker market while lower spillovers are observed for dry cargo market, indicating the well-integrated tanker market in comparison to dry cargo sector and oil market. The volatility in oil prices contributed higher spillovers in the tanker market, and remained a net contributor. The volatility in oil prices is a significant source of the volatility transmission during periods of the sudden drop in oil prices coupled with the higher volatility in oil market, and is a net receiver during stable periods. The period of higher spillovers lasts longer for the tanker sector as compared to dry cargo sector. In the particular case of dry cargo market, the smaller (larger) the size of the vessels, the greater (lower) are the spillovers observed (From and To). Hedging turns out be irrelevant during turmoil periods, as the comovement between shipping and oil market becomes stronger. The spillovers are pronounced during the period of financial crisis, COVID-19 and 2014–2016, owing to the significant fluctuations in oil prices and a troubled period for marine shipping industry.

Macro news effects on exchange rates: Difference between carry trade target and safe-haven currencies

We compare the effects of the US macro news on the exchange rates of carry trade target currencies and safe-haven currencies in the post-GFC period. Relying on the data of 5-min changes of exchange rates, we find significant responses of currencies to the surprises of the US macro news. The significance of responses was similar between the two types of currencies during the normal periods, but were weaker for target currencies in the turmoil periods. Furthermore, the turmoil periods witnessed more diverged effects of macro news between carry trade target currencies and safe-haven currencies.

Pricing of Asian Options on Tesla Based on BSM model

Due to the interaction of the changes in the world political situation and the influence of the global epidemic, the world economy has entered a period of instability and turmoil. This can be an opportunity for people who would like to make an investment. However, without adequate research and good preparation, they may face huge losses. Therefore, this research shows how to choose a reasonable investment approach for a particular market. To be more specific, the research topic of this paper is to show how Asian put options work well in Tesla Market, and the methods of this study include the BSM model, sensitivity analysis, and making a comparison of the Asian options with the European options. Then, the results could be seen that the Asian options will be a more affordable and less risky investment strategy for the Tesla market which is a market with high volatility. Thus, to invest in a market in the current society, it is better for investors to make a clear understanding of their target income and then make multifaceted research. As a result, the investor could reduce their unnecessary losses.

Crafting a colony: Geochemical insights into 1000 years of state craft in the Moquegua Valley, Peru

The long-distance movement of craft items and ideas about their manufacture contribute to imperial projects; facilitating the dissemination of ideologies, serving as tribute, and acting as media for actors to assert affinity with elites and for elites to reward subjects. We interrogate how pottery production and distribution were influenced and involved in different imperial strategies over approximately 1000 years in one Andean valley. Attractive to colonizing polities for its agricultural potential, the Moquegua Valley was first incorporated into expansive states during the Middle Horizon (500–1000 CE) when both the Wari and Tiwanaku established provincial enclaves there. In the 15th century, the valley was subject to Inka colonization. A century later, it was Spanish imperialism that shaped Moquegua’s sociopolitical dynamics. Despite this recurrent pattern of conquest and incorporation, the nature of these incursions likely varied. The elemental data discussed here were generated through LA-ICP-MS on ceramics excavated from archaeological sites that span this millennium of imperialism; they include ceramic material associated with all four political incursions as well as the four centuries long Late Intermediate Period (LIP) when Moquegua was not under the influence of external state authority. Coupled with a robust compositional database of clays that facilitates distinguishing imported ceramics and also the exploitation of different resources within the valley, the data from Moquegua present an opportunity to a) reconstruct a diachronic picture of resource acquisition, the organization of production, and participation in local, regional, and long distance exchange networks and b) interrogate similarities and differences in how craft was implicated in diverse strategies of statecraft. The elemental data suggest that crafting activities were configured in different ways for each of the four expansive polities in Moquegua. As such these data add weight to recent scholarship that argues that crafting activities in contexts of imperialism cannot be reduced to simple models. Additionally, the data from the LIP contribute to comparative dialogue on production and exchange during periods of political localism, and illustrate the ways in which crafting activities participate in intercommunity dynamics during periods of social turmoil.

Prevalence and predictors of depression among college going youth of Meghalaya: A cross-sectional study

Abstract Backgrounds: College years are characterized by transitioning from pre-adult to adulthood, a period of turmoil, adjusting to the new condition, separation from parental supervision, independence, and countering new things throughout everyday life. Depression and health-risk behaviors, including alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drug, are often found in college students, particularly during their first year. Aim: To study the prevalence and predictors of depression among college-going youth of Meghalaya, India. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional community-based study has been undertaken to find the prevalence of depression, alcohol use, and drug use in college-going youth in Shillong, Meghalaya. A random sampling technique was used for the selection of colleges, and total enumeration was used for the selection of college-going students. A total of 358 respondents were selected for the present study. Permission from the college authority was obtained, and written informed consent was taken from the students. The participants have been explained the purpose of the study and the samples were selected voluntarily. The present study’s data were analyzed and interpreted using Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 20.0. Socio-demographic datasheet, Beck Depression Inventory-II, Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale, Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test, and drug abuse screening test were administered. Results: In the present study, 40.5% fall under the normal range of depression, while 38.3% had mild mood disturbance, 10.3% had borderline clinical depression, 9.7% had moderate depression, and severe depression was found in 1.1%. Alcohol use, drug use, and gender contribute significantly to the prediction of depression among college-going students (F[5,19.551] = 855.3, P = 0.000) accounting for 21.7% variance. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the need for a college mental health program for early identification and screening of substance use and depression in college students.

On the Dangers of International Maritime Trade in the Tang Era (The Incidents of Genocide of the Arab-Persian Population of China in 760 and 879)

At the end of the Tang Empire (618–907), the universally recognized “golden age” of imperial China, the country entered a long period of socio-political and ethnic turmoil. The broader set of problems associated with the An Lushan uprising (755–763) is widely known — this civilizational catastrophe marked a turning point in the development of the dynasty and, by impacting all aspects of a powerful empire, caused the sun to start setting on Tang China. Still, many episodes remain relatively unexplored, among them the crises that befell Arab-Persian communities in southern China, which fell victim to the echoes of the An Lushan and Huang Chao uprisings (878–884), which also aimed to put an end to the Tang Dynasty. In layman’s Asian studies and public consciousness, the tragedies that occurred in Yangzhou and Guangzhou a little more than a century apart and took the form of largescale massacres of foreign merchants of Arab and Persian descent are often taken out of context and extrapolated to the entire system of interactions between China and foreigners — in particular, Muslims from West Asia arriving in the ports of the Tang Empire. This article seeks to place these dramatic events in a tighter historical context. Part of the difficulty here lies in the absence of Chinese sources about the Guangzhou massacre, known to researchers only from reports by Arab authors. The paper aims to consider some of the pre-requisites of these incidents, showing the role of Arab-Persian merchants not only as victims of violence by rebels and locals alike, but also by analyzing their own raid on Guangzhou at the very beginning of the events in question. The author also warns against simple projections around conflicts in China’s coastal cities because these sunset episodes of the Tang Dynasty do not extrapolate well to later history.

Феномен правління жінок-фараонів Хатшепсут та Таусерт: легітимація влади

Introduction. This article explores the phenomenon of female pharaohs' reign in Ancient Egypt, focusing on the rule of Hatshepsut and Tausert during the New Kingdom. The research delves into the historical context, cultural significance, and peculiarities of power legitimization during their reigns. By analyzing primary sources, including inscriptions, statues, and archaeological artifacts, this study aims to shed light on the unique circumstances that allowed these women to ascend the throne in a society traditionally dominated by men. The accession of Queen Hatshepsut, 18th Dynasty, challenged prevailing expectations, which required the use of various additional instruments to legitimize her power: adopting male portrayals, emphasizing divine lineage, implementing an extensive building program, military and trade expeditions, and more. Later, Queen Tausert, 19th Dynasty, who ruled during a period of political turmoil and decline, employed similar strategies. Tausert's reign serves as a contrasting example, characterized by her association with her deceased husband, Seti II, as a means of maintaining legitimacy. The article explores the complexities of Tausert's rule, including her attempts to consolidate power, overcome the influence of the powerful Theban priesthood, and the challenges she faced as a female ruler during uncertain times. Methods.The methods of textological and critical analysis were used in the work with sources, and the translation of Egyptian hieroglyphic texts into Ukrainian was also carried out. Through a comparative analysis of the reigns of Hatshepsut and Tausert, we can understand the broader socio-political dynamics of Ancient Egypt, the shifting structures of power, religious policies, and society's attitudes towards gender roles. Conclutions. The result of these research is the creation of new hypotheses regarding the interpretation of the phenomenon of the reign of female pharaohs in Ancient Egypt. This allows a comprehensive consideration and understanding of an important aspect of the legitimation of power during the crisis periods of the political history of Ancient Egypt.

Тимур-султан и Керим-бирди: два нападения на венецианскую Тану в 1410 и в 1418 гг.

The purpose of the study is to consider the problem of the existence of the Venetian and Genoese trading stations in Tana within the territory of the Golden Horde city of Azak during the internecine war in the Golden Horde between the sons of Toktamysh and Idegei. Through an analysis of sources, an effort is made to determine the circumstances of the attacks of the Golden Horde khans and the level of damage that arose from them. Research materials: Unpublished documents of the State Archives of Venice (Italy), as well as Venetian chronicles and historical works of the 15th–16th centuries. Results and scientific uniqueness: The study of Venetian sources showed that during the second period of turmoil in the Golden Horde which erupted after the defeat of Toktamysh by Tamerlane, Tana trading stations underwent extremely difficult times during the period of the domination of beklerbek Idegei. The point of disagreement between the Tatar khans and the Venetians was the non-payment of a tax for renting land, called terraticum, by the Venetian merchants who traded at the mouth of the Don. The Venetians tried to maneuver between the sons of Toktamysh and the henchmen of Idegei, but since power in the Horde often changed hands at the time, Tana became a hostage in this internecine struggle. In 1410, Tana suffered from an unexpected night raid by Timur Khan and was captured. The damage amounted to between 100,000 and 120,000 ducats. Many Venetian sources tell us about these events, but with great discrepancies in details. Thanks to the inclusion of an important commerce-related source – the protocol of the Venetian judges on petitions – we can determine the exact date of the attack, the name of the khan, and the amount of damage. In 1418, there was an even more devastating second attack on Tana by Khan Kerim-birdi. After that, the Venetian Senate, having comprehensively studied the situation, decided to surround Tana with stone walls and repair its fortifications. Thanks to the erection of strong fortifications at Tana, it was possible for the town to hold out until the Ottoman Turkish conquest in 1475.

Does safe haven exist? Tail risks of commodity markets during COVID-19 pandemic

This paper investigates the tail behavior patterns of commodity assets, the risk exposure of these assets, and how they rank given their safe haven properties. We use state-of-the-art dynamic generalized autoregressive score models to jointly estimate tail risk measures for ten commodity assets (aluminum, copper, crude oil, gasoline, gold, heating oil, lead, soybeans, tin, and wheat) over the period from September 14, 2011 to June 30, 2021. Our in-sample findings suggest that aluminum outperforms gold as a safe haven in both pre- and COVID-19 times. The out-of-sample results confirm that aluminum retains its leading role during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings bear implications for constructing well-diversified portfolios which is vital for investors, portfolio managers, and financial advisors, and for policymakers to design policies that ensure financial stability during periods of market turmoil, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Stability or change? Social inequality at the transition from bachelor’s to master’s degree programmes in Germany. Empirical evidence from four graduate cohorts

For German higher education, the introduction of a two-cycle study structure resulted in a new transition stage after the completion of the bachelor’s degree. In contrast to some other countries, this structural change was stretched over a relatively long period. At the same time, the number of students enrolled in higher education has increased substantially. Existing empirical evidence indicates that starting a master’s degree programme is socially selective – in favour of students with tertiary qualified parents. Against this backdrop, we analyse how the level of social inequality at the new transition from the bachelor’s to the master’s level has developed over the course of the past two decades. Drawing on data from large-scale DZHW graduate surveys (graduate cohorts from the years 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017), we are able to replicate previous findings showing considerable social inequality at the transition to the master’s level. However, this inequality could not be detected for the 2005 graduate cohort, the ‘early adopters’. It seems that after an initial period of turmoil and uncertainty in the early stages of the implementation process, established patterns of inequality had re-emerged by the 2009 graduate cohort. We discuss the implications of our results for further research and policy-making.

Three Major Crises and Asian Emerging Market Informational Efficiency: A Case of Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 Index

Periods of economic turmoil distort the ability of stock prices to reflect the available information. In the last three decades, emerging markets experienced numerous crises. The major three of them are the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998), Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009) and Global Pandemic Crisis (2020–2022). The nature, intensity and duration of these crises differ significantly. This study investigates the impact of these varying natures of crises on the level of informational efficiency. The empirical evidence is based on the emerging stock market of Pakistan. Index-level data are collected from Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 Index for the period 1995–2022. The rebalancing is done each year to ensure that the final sample is composed of only 100 stocks with the highest market capitalization. The results based on the Variance Ratio (VR) test show that informational efficiency is time-varying. Among all the three crises, informational efficiency deters more in the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit the market efficiency recovers soon. This implies that the arbitrage opportunity is marginal in crisis periods, while investors prefer to invest in post-crisis periods. Finally, our results reveal that among all the crises, investors were more informed in the Global Financial Crisis. Investors must keep a close eye on market regimes for designing investment solutions.

Approach to Radical Hysterectomy for Cervical Cancer in Pregnancy: Surgical Pathway and Ethical Considerations.

Cervical cancer is currently the fourth most common cancer in women and in the poorest countries this neoplasia still represents a widespread and potentially lethal disease. We present a rare case of cervical cancer in pregnancy, analyzing the historical changes behind the procedure of radical hysterectomy for cervical cancer and discussing variations in surgical techniques and anatomical definitions that have since been proposed. We present the case of a 33-year-old patient who attended with vaginal bleeding in the second trimester of pregnancy. Examination revealed an abnormal looking cervix, with investigations concluding stage IIb squamous cell carcinoma. Following extensive discussion regarding management options, the patient went on to have a peripartum foetocidal type III nerve sparing radical Wertheim hysterectomy at 18 weeks gestation with conservation and transposition of the ovaries above the level of the pelvic brim. The patient recovered well without significant morbidity and received further input from fertility and psychological medical teams in addition to adjuvant treatment within the department of clinical oncology. This case represents several elements of great interest and learning. Notably, we highlight this both due to the surgical challenges that a gravid uterus presents in the execution of a radical hysterectomy; and regarding the compassionate care demonstrated by the team - not only in supporting the patient and her partner in a period of profound turmoil in terms of the management of their cancer diagnosis and unborn child, but also regarding the uncertainty in consideration of the oncological and fertility related outcomes. This manuscript adds to the growing literature on the appropriate use of radical surgery for cervical cancer, more specifically during pregnancy and in consideration of such ethical dilemma, where management guidelines do not exist to aid clinicians further in their provision of treatment.

Volatility and correlation of Islamic and conventional indices during crises

We examine the correlation and volatility of Islamic indices and their conventional counterparts during the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis as well as the Covid-19 pandemic. We provide evidence that the volatility of Islamic indices is relatively lower than that of conventional peers during turmoil periods. Consistent with the decoupling hypothesis, our results indicate that the volatility of Islamic and the volatility of conventional indices tend to move in tandem in tranquil times but diverge in times of crises. Our results also indicate that the correlation between Islamic and conventional indices is a priced risk factor for Islamic index returns.