Period Of Hyperinflation Research Articles

Conditions for the Hi-tech Complex Development

A project for the long-term strategy of Russian break-through into post-industrial society is suggested which is directed at transformation of the hi-tech complex into the leading factor of economic development. The thesis is substantiated that there is an opportunity to realize such a strategy in case Russia shifts towards the mechanism of the monetary base growth generally accepted in developed countries: the Central Bank increases the quantity of "strong" money by means of purchasing state securities and allocates the increment of money in question according to budget priorities. At the same time for the realization of the said strategy it is necessary to partially restore savings lost during the hyperinflation period of 1992-1994 and default of 1998 and to secure development of the bank system as well as an increase of the volume of long-term credits on this base.

Money Demand and Exchange Rate Determination under Hyperinflation: Conceptual Issues and Evidence from Yugoslavia

A modified monetary model of exchange rate determination is advanced and tested for the Yugoslav hyperinflation of 1992-94, stating that the exchange rate is determined directly in the money market thus implying that private agents, due to dollarization, denominate their real money holdings in foreign currency. Empirical evidence supports the advanced model. Apart from the last seven months of the Yugoslav hyperinflation, the exact RE present value model of the exchange rate is accepted, while that of the price level is rejected. For the whole period of hyperinflation the modified money demand schedule, with money holdings denominated in foreign currency, is nonlinear with decreasing semielasticity of money demand.

Stock returns during the German hyperinflation

We examine the relationship between stock returns and inflation during the German hyperinflation period. As Cagan (1956) argues, hyperinflation is close to a pure monetary phenomenon, the monetary sector is almost isolated from the real sector of the economy. We can thus study the impact of inflation on common stock returns directly, unaffected by the potential interactions of other economic variables such as expected real output. The negative relationship between inflation and stock returns widely reported in the literature may be spurious because they have not made such a distinction. By using forward exchange rate premium as a proxy for expected inflation, we find that stock returns, inflation, expected inflation, and unexpected inflation are cointegrated during the German hyperinflation period. The results also indicate that the fundamental relationship between stock returns and both realized and expected inflation is highly positive. JEL classification: E310; G120

Forms of technological modernization and human resources management in privatized argentine companies

After the period of hyperinflation (1989, 1990) the Argentine economy stabilized and most of public companies were privatized. The return on investments was concentrated on promoting the technological change which adopts two basic forms: systemic modernization and revamping of existing teams. The first variant -ilustrated by the national telephone network- makes obsolete the knowledge accumulated during the period when the company was public. To confront the structural deficiency of knowledge and experience which result, the private operators invest massively in transfering educational technologies and in the development of costly and sofisticated internal systems of training, while they negotiate numerous and various agreements of cooperation with educational system institutions, public as well as private. In the second variant - illustrated by a steel and metallurgic company - the preexisting knowledge continues being necessary even though it may need a vis-a-vis updating facing the new demands which are stated referring to the productivity, quality, effectiveness and productive efficiency in markets which are open to competition. Taking into account the significant achievements which are being obtained by this second alternative of modernization - most of the privatized companies fall into this pattern- the article invites to a reopening of the old debate on technological blending.

Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets

This study examines the kinds of events that cause large shifts in the volatility of emerging stock markets. We first determine when large changes in the volatility of emerging stock market returns occur and then examine global and local events (social, political, and economic) during the periods of increased volatility. An iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm is used to identify the points of shocks/sudden changes in the variance of returns in each market and how long the shift lasts. Both increases and decreases in the variance are identified. We then identify events around the time period when shifts in volatility occur. Most events tend to be local and include the Mexican peso crisis, periods of hyperinflation in Latin America, the Marcos-Aquino conflict in the Philippines, and the stock market scandal in India. The October 1987 crash is the only global event during the period 1985–1995 that caused a significant jump in the volatility of several emerging stock markets.

Bianchi Type I Viscous Universe with Variable G and Λ

Exact solutions for an anisotropic Bianchi type I model with bulk viscosity and variable G and Λ are obtained. We have found some solutions that correspond to our earlier work for the isotropic one. Unlike Kalligas et al., an inflationary solution with a variable energy density has been found where the anisotropy energy decreases exponentially with time. There is a period of hyper-inflation during which the energy density remains constant.

Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets

This study examines the daily, weekly, and monthly behavior of volatility in emerging stock markets in local currency and in dollar-adjusted returns. An iterated cumulative sums of squares methodology is used to identify the points and magnitude of shocks/sudden changes in the unconditional variance of returns in each market. Both increases and decreases in the variance are identified. The high volatility in emerging markets is not simply continuous, but is marked by shocks. The large changes in volatility seem to be related to important country-specific political, social and economic events. These events include the Mexican Peso crisis, periods of hyperinflation in Latin America, the Marcos-Aquino conflict in the Philippines, and the stock market scandal in India. The October 1987 crash is the only “global event” in the last decade that caused a significant jump in the volatility of several emerging stock markets. After accounting for these shocks, ARCH/GARCH effects are considerably reduced.

Relative price dispersion and inflation: evidence from Taiwan's hyperinflation

Evidence is presented that a positive association existed between inflation and relative prices for Taiwan during a period of hyperinflation (1946–1949). The empirical result is consistent with most of the findings in the literature. Intramarket price dispersion is positively related to the average market rate of price change, but the strength of this relationship differs across the market.

The time series behaviour of spot exchange rates in the German hyper-inflation period: (Was the process chaotic?)

A discrete time approximation to the continuous time hyper-inflation model of Sargent and Wallace (1993) in which the authorities finance a given budget deficit by printing money appears to admit the possibility of chaotic solutions. In this paper we investigate the time series properties of daily observations on the Pound Reichsmark spot exchange rate in the inter-war hyper-inflation period. Our empirical analysis is suggestive that spot rates were generated by a non-linear possibly chaotic process.

REAL WAGES AND DISTRIBUTIONAL CONFLICT IN THE GERMAN HYPERINFLATION*

Real wages during the German hyperinflation are analyzed in terms of the conflict between workers' demands and the pricing and employment decisions of firms. This framework incorporates the pressure effects of expected inflation and the wage gap between workers' target real and its observed value. Both of these effects are conditioned by unemployment that limits workers' ability to obtain their desired money adjustments. Empirical estimation over 1920-23 provides strong support for the hypothesized interaction between unemployment and real growth over the hyperinflation period. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia

War Finance, Reconstruction, Hyperinflation and Stabilization in Hungary, 1938-48

Part 1 Introduction and summary: war finance the economic cosequence of the Second World War hyperinflation stabilization why study the Hungarian hyperinflation? the framework of the analysis plan of the book. Part 2 The basic data: prewar data data from the hyperinflation period money supply and government debt prices unemployment and output data from the stabilization period. Part 3 Hungary and the German War economy: Hungary's dilemma supplying the German war economy conclusions. Part 4 The Gyori program and its macroeconomic consequences: introduction the Gyori program the credibility of the Gyori program monetary policy and inflation , 1938-44 the impact of the Gyori program on the labour market conclusions. Part 5 The end of the war and the financial toll of reconstruction: the end of the war and its financial toll reparations. Part 6 State finances and peacetime economic prospects: introduction a difficult beginning the inevitability of the inflation tax the influence of politics in the choice of policies reparations and reconstruction conclusions. Part 7 Attempts to control inflation: the three phases of the hyperinflation the tax on the Pengo the Pengo indexation experiment Calory wages the role and significance of alternative transaction media. Part 8 Monetary and fiscal policy during the hyperinflation: a statistical overview of the hyperinflation money and prices demand for money and inflationary expectations does the hyperinflation constitute a homogeneous period? policy expectations and the demand for money the links between monetary policy and inflation the tax 'pengo' period and the final acceleration of inflation conclusions. Part 9 The end of hyperinflation and its consequences: introduction a quick end to the hyperinflation? the credibility of the stabilization of August 1946 monetary following stabilization demand for money prices, money supply, and government debt policy influence on inflation economic costs of price stability relative price effects employment and unemployment output and productivity summary and conclusions. Part 10 The lessons to be learned from the hyperinflation and its termination: introduction supply side influences the role of credibility applicability to other inflations unemployment indexation concluding remarks. Appendix A: historical statistics 1938-48 daily data - 1945-46 weekly data - 1945-48 monthly data - 1938-48. Appendix B: additional statistical results endnotes bibliographic abbreviations references glossary of selected terms index.

The effect of hyperinflation on lung elasticity in healthy subjects

In acute severe asthma, lung distensibility may increase. To determine whether hyperinflation alon can increase lung distensibility acutely total lung capacity (TLC) and static volume-pressure (VP) properties were mesured in six healthy subjects after quiet breathing, and two periods of hyperinflation of 20–60 min, with negative pressure assistance at the chest wall (NPA) in one period and positive airways pressure assistance (PPA) in the other. In five subjects there was no change with NPA; with PPA lung volume at a static transpulmonary pressure of 10 cm H 2O (V L 10) increased by 0.3 L ( P < 0.01) and K, the shape constant of an exponential function fitted to the deflation VP curve, increased ( P < 0.001) without a change in TLC. In Subject 6, with both NPA and PPA, V L 10 increased ( P < 0.001 with NPA; P < 0.01 with PPA); volume hysteresis was unchanged. The small increased of lung distensibility in five subjects after PPA we attribute to decreased pulmonary blood volume; in Subject 6 the changes with hyperinflation suggest decreased tissue forces. We conclude that hyperinflation can cause an acute increase in lung distensibility in some individuals. The variable response between subjects parallels that seen in astma.

Causality and the independence phenomenon: The case of the demand for money

We examine the demand for money using causality results with data from two alternative policy regimes. For Spanish series of money and prices we obtain the same result of independence that Feige and others found with U.S. data. The result of the test for the German hyperinflation period reveals bidirectional causality. It is shown that the somehow striking results of widespread independence among economic time series do not disprove but rather confirm the existence of a true underlying causal relationship. Causality results, and independence in particular, give us testable restriction for the structural form. In the case of models for expectations in the rate of inflation, these restrictions allow us to revalidate the stability of the demand for money as postulated by the Quantity Theory.

THE GOLD SOVEREIGN MARKET IN GREECE-AN UNUSUAL SPECULATIVE MARKET

A GREAT DEAL of theoretical and quantitative research into speculative markets has been concerned with the relationship between risk and return. It is generally accepted that it is possible, on the average, to obtain an above-normal return by taking extra risks. One of the basic concepts of this work has been that of a asset. The most obvious asset is cash, which has complete liquidity and zero return. In most situations superior riskless assets are available; assets which also have complete or near complete liquidity and also give a positive return. One example is a callable loan at a fixed rate of interest, such as a deposit in a Post Office or Government savings bonds. However, if there has been a period in the recent past when public confidence in cash has completely collapsed, as would occur during a period of hyper-inflation, cash may no longer be viewed as and the public may need to look elsewhere for low-risk investments. Further, if one has retained any capital after a period of currency collapse, one may well become extremely risk averse. The kinds of investments that might be considered would include property or land but of course the traditional ones are silver and gold. In Greece there was a particularly well-developed market in gold sovereigns which was of considerable importance to the middle class. As it gave very small, or even negative returns over long periods we shall suggest that it survived entirely because its clientel was very risk adverse because of lack of confidence in the currency following earlier politically and economically troubled periods. In the next section the basic features of this market are described. Section three discusses the returns available on various investments. Section IV presents an analysis of the price series for gold sovereigns during a period of free movement. The final section contains some concluding comments.

Prolonged alteration of lung mechanics in kyphoscoliosis by positive pressure hyperinflation.

The effects of a short period of large inflation pressures, delivered by intermittent positive pressure devices, on the abnormal lung mechanics of patients with kyphoscoliosis were studied. Their chronically decreased lung compliance was, on the average, increased by 70 per cent by this procedure and this increase was maintained for as long as 3 hours. Lung tissue resistance, but not the Plethysmographic airway resistance, also decreased after the hyperinflation. The large increases in lung compliance, without correspondingly large increases in functional residual capacity, suggested that a reorientation of alveolar surface forces might have been responsible for this phenomenon, although expansion of collapsed air spaces could not be excluded. The accompanying decreases in work of breathing after the brief period of hyperinflation suggest that this procedure might be of clinical use in the patient with kyphoscoliosis.