Period Of Climate Warming Research Articles

Holocene climate variability in north-eastern Italy: potential influence of the NAO and solar activity recorded by speleothem data

Abstract. Here we present high-resolution stable isotope and lamina thickness profiles as well as radiocarbon data for the Holocene stalagmite ER 76 from Grotta di Ernesto (north-eastern Italy), which was dated by combined U-series dating and lamina counting. ER 76 grew between 8 ka (thousands of years before 2000 AD) and today, with a hiatus from 2.6 to 0.4 ka. Data from nine meteorological stations in Trentino show a significant influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on winter temperature and precipitation in the cave region. Spectral analysis of the stable isotope signals of ER 76 reveals significant peaks at periods of 110, 60–70, 40–50, 32–37 and around 25 a. Except for the cycle between 32 and 37 a all periodicities have corresponding peaks in power spectra of solar variability, and the 25-a cycle may correspond to NAO variability. This suggests that climate variability in northern Italy was influenced by both solar activity and the NAO during the Holocene. Six periods of warm winter climate in the cave region were identified. These are centred at 7.9, 7.4, 6.5, 5.5, 4.9 and 3.7 ka, and their duration ranges from 100 to 400 a. The two oldest warm phases coincide with the deposition of sapropel S1 in the Mediterranean Sea indicating that the climate in the cave region was influenced by this prominent pluvial phase in the Mediterranean area. For the younger warm phases it is difficult to establish a supra-regional climate pattern, and some of them may, thus, reflect regional climate variability. This highlights the complexity of regional and supra-regional scale Holocene climate patterns.

Decadal‐ to centennial‐scale tropical Atlantic climate variability across a Dansgaard‐Oeschger cycle

The patterns and forcing mechanisms of climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales represent a major void in our current understanding of Earth's climate system. Furthermore, the response of the low latitudes to abrupt climate change is also not well understood, as most high‐resolution paleoclimate studies are from midlatitudes and high latitudes. This study explores the tropical Atlantic response to a Dansgaard‐Oeschger cycle (Interstadial 12) using ultra‐high resolution (∼2–3 years) foraminiferal census data from Cariaco Basin sediments. The interpretation of the abundance records for the onset of Interstadial 12 is complicated by the competing effects of rising sea level on Ekman‐induced upwelling within the Cariaco Basin and migrating Intertropical Convergence Zone–associated variations in trade wind location and fluvial nutrient delivery to the basin. The foraminiferal abundance records for the latter part of the interstadial suggest a southerly shift in the average annual position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone that acted to enhance upwelling and productivity within the Cariaco Basin. Sea level eventually reached a critical point in the transition back to stadial conditions that led to upwelling of nutrient‐depleted waters and a decline in productivity within the basin. Spectral analyses of theGlobigerina bulloidesabsolute abundance records reveal significant variability ranging from subdecadal‐ to centennial‐scale. Atlantic multidecadal‐scale climate variability is only evident in the warmest interval of Interstadial 12, suggesting that variability on this scale may only operate during warm climate periods, something that has significant implications for modern and near‐future climate variability.

Temporal variation in elytral colour polymorphism in Hippodamia variegata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Lady beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) are a classical group for studying the mechanisms that determine local and temporal trends in colour polymorphism. Here we report long term trends in variation in the percentage of different morphs in a population of Hippodamia variegata (Goeze) at Štúrovo, Slovakia (47°48´N, 18°43´E). The morphs differ in the number and location of the spots on their elytra. Beetles were sampled from stands of herbaceous plants using a standard method each year in August over a period of 74 years from 1937 to 2011. Twenty two morphs (out of 74 possible) were recorded in a total sample of 6,984 individuals. Four dominant morphs made up 90% of the total sample and varied in their annual frequency independently of one another. Frequency of "pale" morphs (0-3 spots per elytra), supposedly favoured by a warm climate, increased from 1981 to 2000s' during a period of climate warming, but only after a decrease that took place between 1937 and 1981, which did not parallel a change in climate. Moreover, the differences in the extent of the melanization of the elytral surface are too small to significantly affect thermoregulation in the different morphs. Therefore, the results presented do not provide unequivocal support for climate change determining the long term trends in the variation in the proportions of the different morphs.

Coupling high-resolution measurements to a three-dimensional lake model to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics of the cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens in a medium-sized lake

In a medium-sized pre-alpine lake (North Italy) the cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens has strongly dominated the phytoplankton assemblage since 2000, similar to many pre-alpine lakes, despite improvements in water quality. The objective of this study was to determine the factors governing the spatial distribution of P. rubescens, including the major hydrodynamic processes and the influence of long-term reduction in nutrient concentrations during a period of climate warming. We used an intensive field campaign conducted from February 2010 to January 2011, to evaluate distributions of phytoplankton phyla, as well as P. rubescens, using spectrally resolved fluorescence measurements. These data provided highly spatially and temporally resolved phytoplankton population data suitable to calibrate and validate a coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic (ELCOM) and ecological model (CAEDYM) of the lake ecosystem. The simulations revealed the fundamental role of physiological features of P. rubescens that led to observed vertical patterns of distribution, notably a deep chlorophyll maximum, and a strong influence of lake hydrodynamic processes, particularly during high-discharge inflows in summer stratification. The simulations are used to examine growth-limiting factors that help to explain the increased prevalence of P. rubescens during re-oligotrophication.

A high resolution multi-proxy record of pronounced recent environmental change at Baker Lake, Nunavut

Arctic aquatic systems are considered to be especially sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance, which can have cascading effects on biological communities as aquatic food-web structure is altered. Bio-indicators that respond to major limnological changes can be used to detect and infer major environmental change, such as climate warming, with the use of paleolimnological techniques. A multi-proxy approach was used to quantify recent environmental changes at Baker Lake, Nunavut, Arctic Canada. Analyses of fossilized remains of chironomids and diatoms were conducted on a sediment core of 20 cm in length sampled at 0.5-cm intervals. A new surface sediment training set of subfossil chironomid assemblages from 65 lakes across the eastern Canadian Arctic generated a robust (r jack 2 = 0.79) surface water paleotemperature transfer function. The transfer function was applied to stratigraphic intervals from the Baker Lake sediment core to generate a paleotemperature reconstruction of sub-decadal resolution. The surface water temperature reconstruction inferred a 2°C increase in mid-summer surface water temperature for Baker Lake over the last 60 years, which was corroborated by the local instrumental record spanning the period of 1950–2007 AD. The chironomid record shows a recent decline of several cold-water taxa and appearance of warm-water indicators. This shift in community structure began circa 1906 AD, and intensified after 1940 AD. The corresponding fossil diatom record showed an increase in small planktonic Cyclotella taxa over the past 60 years, intensifying in the last 5 years, which also suggests a warmer climate and longer ice-free periods. The shifts in the diatom assemblages began later than the shifts in the chironomid assemblages, and were of lower magnitude, reflecting differences in the mechanisms in which these two indicators respond to environmental change.

Reduced variability in range‐edge butterfly populations over three decades of climate warming

AbstractPopulations at the high latitude edge of species’ geographical ranges are thought to show larger interannual population fluctuations, with subsequent higher local extinction risk, than those within the ‘core’ climatic range. As climate envelopes shift northward under climate warming, however, we would expect populations to show dampened variability. We test this hypothesis using annual abundance indices from 19 butterfly species across 79 British monitoring sites between 1976 and 2009, a period of climatic warming. We found that populations in the latter (warmer) half of the recording period show reduced interannual population variability. Species with more southerly European distributions showed the greatest dampening in population variability over time. Our results suggest that increases in population variability occur towards climatic range boundaries. British sites, previously existing at the margins of suitable climate space, now appear to fall closer to the core climatic range for many butterfly species.

The Miocene Nullarbor Limestone, southern Australia; deposition on a vast subtropical epeiric platform

The early to middle Miocene Nullarbor Limestone forms the vast, karsted Nullarbor Plain in southern Australia, and may be the most extensive Miocene carbonate deposit described to date. These carbonates were deposited at southern paleolatitudes of ~40°S and are interpreted to be subtropical to warm-temperate in character because of the presence of certain genera of tropical coralline algae (rhodoliths and articulated types), large benthic foraminifera, tropical molluscs, zooxanthellate corals, and micrite envelopes. Facies are dominated by skeletal grainstones and floatstones that accumulated in three interpreted paleoenvironments: (1) seagrass banks (upper photic zone), (2) rhodolith pavements (lower photic zone), and (3) open seafloors (lower photic to subphotic zone). A decrease of tropical components from west to east across the platform implies that warm oceanic currents (possibly related to a proto-Leeuwin Current), as well as a period of warm climate (Miocene Climatic Optimum), resulted in subtropical deposition at southern latitudes. The Southern Ocean extended inboard ~450km from the shelf edge during Nullarbor Limestone deposition, but interpreted paleodepths did not extend much below the base of the photic zone. A small slope angle (~0.02°) over a wide shelf (~300,000km2) implies deposition on an epeiric platform or epeiric ramp. A Miocene barrier reef was likely coeval with Nullarbor Limestone deposition. Therefore, the inboard portion of the Nullarbor Limestone can be considered part of an extensive back-reef lagoon system on a rimmed epeiric platform, perhaps attaining a size similar to the modern Great Barrier Reef system.

Geochemical Compositions of Marine Fossils as Proxies for Reconstructing Ancient Environmental Conditions

A brief summary is given here about some of the geochemical methodologies that are often used to obtain information from fossils and sediments about the past environment. Such methods are frequently applied in our project in which the formation of Paleogene phosphate sequences in North Africa is investigated. These layers were deposited in shallow marine seas during a period of extreme warm climate with a high CO(2) concentration in the atmosphere. Some of the characteristics of this greenhouse interval are similar to the modern anthropogenic situation hence it is intensively investigated from several aspects by many scientists. Here the geochemical compositions of fossils deposited during this time are discussed, focusing on how the data are obtained and how they could be evaluated in terms of palaeo-environmental conditions.

Late Pleistocene lake and glaciation evolution on the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau: a review

Late Pleistocene paleoclimatic history on northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has been reconstructed mainly from lake sediments; however, data regarding dry–wet climate changes reported in this region are still not clear and controversial. Based on shoreline features and highstand lacustrine sediments around lakes on the QTP, high lake level histories in this paper were summarized and compared with paleoclimatic records from lake sediments, ice core and glaciation evolution surrounding mountains on the NE QTP during late Pleistocene. The results indicate that periods of high lake level occurred at MIS 5, MIS 3 and early-middle Holocene and most likely corresponding to warm and wet climate periods, while periods of low lake level existed in intervening intervals, corresponding to cold and dry climate periods, which most likely coincide with glacial advances surrounding high mountains. With an exception, no wide glacial advance in study area was found during MIS 3, possibly suggesting that effective moisture is lower than that in the other region of NE QTP in this period.

Temporal progression trends of cypress mortality at permanent plots in a National forest reserve of Austrocedrus chilensis (Patagonia, Argentina)

Longevity is a characteristic of forest trees that influences their responses to challenges by biotic and abiotic stresses and the temporal development of symptoms. Monitoring programs have been extensively used to detect the impact of climatic change, air pollution and outbreaks of pathogens on forest health, growth and dynamics. In Argentina, forests of Patagonian cypress are affected since mid twenty century by a mortality process called “mal del ciprés” (cypress mortality), but information about their temporal progression is scarce. In the present work we used a database from a program of dasometric permanent plots to analyse the temporal development of cypress mortality on plot and tree level, and determine qualitatively the spatial distribution of affected trees. Particular pulses of appearance of affected trees shared by all plots, rapid or slow progress of mortality at tree level and a homogeneous distribution of affected trees without a clear pattern of expansion from a central point were determined. The results indicate that the episodic appearance of affected trees can be related with warm and dry climatic periods and suggest that the individuals affected by cypress mortality share some special characteristics such as genetic background, developmental conditions or physiological mechanisms for drought responses.

Northeastern Atlantic cold-water coral reefs and climate

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Late-arriving barn swallows linked to population declines

Barn swallows ( Hirundo rustica) are arriving later in the spring than they did 30–40 years ago at numerous sites in Korea. In some cases their arrival times are later by more than 1 month. This result is perplexing as spring activities of plants and animals are generally getting earlier due to warming temperatures. The first arrival dates of swallows are not related to temperature, suggesting that another factor is involved. On the basis of a questionnaire, a large majority of long-term observers are confident that there has been a moderate to severe decline in swallow populations at their field site over the study period. The greatest delays in arrival times are associated with sites with more severe reported declines in population size. Simulations using trapping data of large migratory bird populations from the United States, consisting of hundreds of individuals, suggest that severe population declines of 99% can result in delays of 10–12 days in arrival times. In summary, our results suggest that the large delays in arrival time of Korean swallows are due, at least in part, to severe reductions of more than 99% in what were formerly very large populations. Significant delays in spring phenology over time during a period of climatic warming may indicate population decline, though alternative explanations, such as changes in range or migration path or changing number of broods per season, should also be investigated. Delays in first arrival data can provide a valuable new tool to conservation biologists by indicating declines in a population that would otherwise go unnoticed. This can, in turn, lead to efforts by researchers to verify the dynamics of a population and draw attention to the conservation needs of the species.

From riches to rags: organic deterioration at Star Carr

The 11,000-year old lake edge archaeological site of Star Carr in the Vale of Pickering of North Yorkshire is one of the most famous Mesolithic sites in Europe, and one of the earliest, dated to the period of climatic warming that immediately followed the final termination of the last ice age. One of the main reasons for this international importance is the richness of its organic artefacts, faunal assemblage and environmental data. However, recent investigations have demonstrated that these organic remains have severely deteriorated over the last 60 years due to the decay and acidification of the surrounding peat. This paper presents research into the effects on the bone (histological analysis using light and polarising microscopy, and Transmission Electron Microscopy, bulk collagen analysis, and amino acid analysis), antler (visual and metrical analysis, loss on ignition and Scanning Electron Microscopy) and wood (visual analysis, decay assessment tests and Scanning Electron Microscopy).

Paleoclimate study of mountain ecosystems by multiple group biological analysis

Methodological problems of climatic reconstruction for different periods of Holocene are discussed on the basis of a multiple group biological analysis on peat-sapropel sediments. The possibility of biological analysis is exemplified by the paleoclimatic reconstruction for Carpathian and Altai Mountain ranges. For the “Skolevsky Beskidy” national park of Carpaty the paleoclimatic scenarios have been drown up aiming at the more precise definition of climatic conditions for the period of mass mountain slope terracing. The stability of terrace systems of various designs in the current climatic conditions has been assessed. It is shown that during periods of humid climate the terraces, whose designs have been focused on drainage, were built. In periods of dry and warm climate the terrace systems capable of accumulating water were built. Both these types of terrace systems are destroyed in nowadays. Only those terrace systems are stable which were adjusted by their builders to contrast variations of precipitation.

A century of tree line changes in sub-Arctic Sweden shows local and regional variability and only a minor influence of 20th century climate warming

Aim Models project that climate warming will cause the tree line to move to higher elevations in alpine areas and more northerly latitudes in Arctic environments. We aimed to document changes or stability of the tree line in a sub-Arctic model area at different temporal and spatial scales, and particularly to clarify the ambiguity that currently exists about tree line dynamics and their causes. Location The study was conducted in the Torneträsk area in northern Sweden where climate warmed by 2.5 °C between 1913 and 2006. Mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) sets the alpine tree line. Methods We used repeat photography, dendrochronological analysis, field observations along elevational transects and historical documents to study tree line dynamics. Results Since 1912, only four out of eight tree line sites had advanced: on average the tree line had shifted 24 m upslope (+0.2 m year−1 assuming linear shifts). Maximum tree line advance was +145 m (+1.5 m year−1 in elevation and +2.7 m year−1 in actual distance), whereas maximum retreat was 120 m downslope. Counter-intuitively, tree line advance was most pronounced during the cooler late 1960s and 1970s. Tree establishment and tree line advance were significantly correlated with periods of low reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) population numbers. A decreased anthropozoogenic impact since the early 20th century was found to be the main factor shaping the current tree line ecotone and its dynamics. In addition, episodic disturbances by moth outbreaks and geomorphological processes resulted in descent and long-term stability of the tree line position, respectively. Main conclusions In contrast to what is generally stated in the literature, this study shows that in a period of climate warming, disturbance may not only determine when tree line advance will occur but if tree line advance will occur at all. In the case of non-climatic climax tree lines, such as those in our study area, both climate-driven model projections of future tree line positions and the use of the tree line position for bioclimatic monitoring should be used with caution.

A new Orobrassolis butterfly (Nymphalidae, Brassolini): a casualty of habitat destruction?

A new species of the brassoline genus Orobrassolis (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Satyrinae) is described based on specimens collected in the early 1900’s from the highland grasslands of Paraná, Brazil. The geological history of these highland grasslands suggests that they underwent climatic fluctuations, with warm climate periods leading to contraction and fragmentation. This fragmentation may have led to the isolation and divergence of southern Orobrassolis populations. Human impact to these areas may have led to the extinction of the species described here.

The application of satellite remote sensing for assessing productivity in relation to fisheries yields of the world's large marine ecosystems

Abstract Sherman, K., O'Reilly, J., Belkin, I. M., Melrose, C., and Friedland, K. D. 2011. The application of satellite remote sensing for assessing productivity in relation to fisheries yields of the world's large marine ecosystems. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 667–676. In 1992, world leaders at the historical UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) recognized that the exploitation of resources in coastal oceans was becoming increasingly unsustainable, resulting in an international effort to assess, recover, and manage goods and services of large marine ecosystems (LMEs). More than $3 billion in support to 110 economically developing nations have been dedicated to operationalizing a five-module approach supporting LME assessment and management practices. An important component of this effort focuses on the effects of climate change on fisheries biomass yields of LMEs, using satellite remote sensing and in situ sampling of key indicators of changing ecological conditions. Warming appears to be reducing primary productivity in the lower latitudes, where stratification of the water column has intensified. Fishery biomass yields in the Subpolar LMEs of the Northeast Atlantic are also increasing as zooplankton levels increase with warming. During the current period of climate warming, it is especially important for space agency programmes in Asia, Europe, and the United States to continue to provide satellite-borne radiometry data to the global networks of LME assessment scientists.

Climate change and large-scale human population collapses in the pre-industrial era

Aim It has long been assumed that deteriorating climate (cooling and warming above the norm) could shrink the carrying capacity of agrarian lands,depriving the human population of sufficient food.Population collapses (i.e.negative population growth) follow. However, this human‐ecological relationship has rarely been verified scientifically, and evidence of warming-caused disaster has never been found. This research sought to explore quantitatively the temporal pattern, spatial pattern and triggers of population collapses in relation to climate change at the global scale over 1100 years. Location Various countries/regions in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the pre-industrial era. Methods We performed time-series analysis to examine the association between temperature change and country-wide/region-wide population collapses in different climatic zones.All of the known population collapse incidents in the NH in the period ce 800‐1900 were included in our data analysis. Results Nearly 90% of population collapses in various NH countries/regions occurred during periods of climate deterioration characterized by shrinking carrying capacity of the land.In addition,we found that cooling dampened the human ecosystem and brought about 80% of the collapses in warmer humid,cooler humid and dry zones, while warming adversely affected the ecosystems in dry and tropical humid zones. All of the population collapses and growth declines in periods of warm climate occurred in dry and tropical humid zones. Malthusian checks (famines, wars and epidemics) were the dominant triggers of population collapses, which peaked dramatically when climate deteriorated.

Mammalian Evolution May not Be Strictly Bifurcating

The massive amount of genomic sequence data that is now available for analyzing evolutionary relationships among 31 placental mammals reduces the stochastic error in phylogenetic analyses to virtually zero. One would expect that this would make it possible to finally resolve controversial branches in the placental mammalian tree. We analyzed a 2,863,797 nucleotide-long alignment (3,364 genes) from 31 placental mammals for reconstructing their evolution. Most placental mammalian relationships were resolved, and a consensus of their evolution is emerging. However, certain branches remain difficult or virtually impossible to resolve. These branches are characterized by short divergence times in the order of 1–4 million years. Computer simulations based on parameters from the real data show that as little as about 12,500 amino acid sites could be sufficient to confidently resolve short branches as old as about 90 million years ago (Ma). Thus, the amount of sequence data should no longer be a limiting factor in resolving the relationships among placental mammals. The timing of the early radiation of placental mammals coincides with a period of climate warming some 100–80 Ma and with continental fragmentation. These global processes may have triggered the rapid diversification of placental mammals. However, the rapid radiations of certain mammalian groups complicate phylogenetic analyses, possibly due to incomplete lineage sorting and introgression. These speciation-related processes led to a mosaic genome and conflicting phylogenetic signals. Split network methods are ideal for visualizing these problematic branches and can therefore depict data conflict and possibly the true evolutionary history better than strictly bifurcating trees. Given the timing of tectonics, of placental mammalian divergences, and the fossil record, a Laurasian rather than Gondwanan origin of placental mammals seems the most parsimonious explanation.

Lentic Basommatophora molluscs and hygrophilous land snails as indicators of habitat and climate in the Early-Middle Pleistocene (0.78 Ma) at the site of Gesher Benot Ya‘aqov (GBY), Israel

The lentic Basommatophora molluscs and hygrophilous land snails of the Early-Middle Pleistocene site of Gesher Benot Ya‘aqov (GBY), 0.78 Ma, crossed by the Matuyama–Brunhes chron boundary [MBB] were studied in order to reconstruct their specific habitats and possible reactions to climate change along the site sequence. Samples of equal sizes from 27 of the 46 layers along the 100 k.yr. time-span of the site were examined. About 2000 specimens of 21 lentic and hygrophilous species belonging to five families: Planorbidae (11), Lymnaeidae (6), Acroloxidae (2), Carychiidae (1) and Succineidae (1) were identified. The family with the largest biodiversity is the Planorbidae and of these, the most abundant species include Gyraulus piscinarum (937), Planorbarius corneus (210) and Radix labiata (160). The recent known zoogeographic origin of 81% of the species is Palaearctic and Holarctic. The MBB coincides with remarkable environmental changes reflected in molluscs, other faunal and floral elements and stable isotopes. The Planorbidae and Lymnaeidae reach greater abundance (90% and 80% of their assemblages, respectively) pre-MBB, while Acroloxidae, Succineidae and Carychiidae are more abundant (74%, 64% and 90%) post-MBB. Our data indicate that GBY molluscs show a two-phase pattern (shallow and deep lake) in each of the five defined cycles. Their numbers increase during the shallow water phases, thus the site climate changes from cold and humid in the oldest layers, to dry and cold up to the MBB and few succeeding layers. Between cycles 2 and 3, post-MBB, we see a short period of warm and humid climate that enables the influx of African and Asian elements. At the same time, cold climate species of Euro-Siberian and Palaearctic origin disappear. The succeeding layers indicate a cooler and humid climate. Finally, the sequence indicates deep water in the oldest layers and desiccation towards MBB and deeper water post-MBB.