Performance Of Prediction Models Research Articles

Advancing hydrogen storage predictions in metal-organic frameworks: A comparative study of LightGBM and random forest models with data enhancement

The escalating consumption of fossil fuels has given rise to a substantial upsurge in greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures, which, in turn, has triggered severe climate-related consequences. The critical imperative to reduce CO2 emissions and combat global warming has spurred extensive investigations into clean energy alternatives, with hydrogen emerging as a compelling zero-emission energy source. As a pivotal component of clean energy strategies, hydrogen requires designing compact, lightweight, and efficient storage systems. This study focuses on the development and evaluation of machine learning models for predicting the efficiency of Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs) in hydrogen storage, a key aspect of advancing clean energy technologies. MOFs, a class of nanoporous materials, show remarkable potential for hydrogen storage due to their high surface area and porosity. However, selecting the most suitable MOF for this application from a vast array of possible structures is a daunting task. In this context, machine learning algorithms offer an efficient alternative for predicting MOF suitability by considering their structural and chemical properties. We used ensemble learning methods, specifically Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and Random Forest (RF), to predict hydrogen uptake of MOFs based on a dataset of 219 experimentally tested samples. Two modeling scenarios were considered: one using the entire dataset, and the other involving strategic data pre-processing, including outlier removal and feature engineering. The results demonstrate that the measures taken to refine the dataset significantly enhance the predictive performance of the developed models, reducing prediction errors and improving overall goodness of fit. Specifically, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values for both the LightGBM and random forest models were reduced from 0.48 and 0.94, respectively, to 0.16 for both models, and the coefficients of determination (R2) increased substantially from 0.84 and 0.72 to 0.95, in both cases. Moreover, feature importance analysis unveiled that pressure-related features make the most significant contributions to the formation of tree ensembles during the model training process. A parametric sensitivity analysis was conducted revealing that H2 uptake in MOFs is most sensitive to changes in adsorption enthalpy, followed by surface area and temperature, while showing lower sensitivity to variations in pressure, consistent with established literature. These results underscore the pivotal role of data enhancement methods in refining machine learning models and can be instrumental in accelerating the development and optimization of MOF materials for clean energy applications.

A genetic algorithm-based feature selection approach for diabetes prediction

<p>Genetic algorithms have emerged as a powerful optimization technique for feature selection due to their ability to search through a vast feature space efficiently. This study discusses the importance of feature selection for prediction in healthcare and prominently focuses on diabetes mellitus. Feature selection is essential for improving the performance of prediction models, by finding significant features and removing unnecessary among them. The study aims to identify the most informative subset of features. Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disorder that poses significant health challenges worldwide. For the experiment, two datasets related to diabetes were downloaded from Kaggle and the results of both (datasets) with and without feature selection using the genetic algorithm were compared. Machine learning classifiers and genetic algorithms were combined to increase the precision of diabetes risk prediction. In the preprocessing phase, feature selection, machine learning classifiers, and performance metrics methods were applied to make this study feasible. The results of the experiment showed that genetic algorithm + logistic regression i.e., 80% (accuracy) works better for PIMA diabetes, and for Germany diabetes dataset genetic algorithm + random forest and genetic algorithm + K-Nearest Neighbor i.e., 98.5% performed better than other chosen classifiers. The researchers can better comprehend the importance of feature selection in healthcare through this study.</p>

Covid-19 induced data shift causes degradation of predictive model performance in perioperative medicine

Covid-19 induced data shift causes degradation of predictive model performance in perioperative medicine

Population pharmacokinetics and dosage optimization of linezolid in Chinese older patients.

To assess the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of linezolid in a retrospective cohort of hospitalized Chinese older patients. Patients > 60years of age, who received intravenous linezolid (600mg), were included. A population pharmacokinetics (PPK) model was established using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. The predictive performance of the final model was assessed using goodness-of-fit plots, bootstrap analyses, and visual predictive checks. Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the achievement of a pharmacodynamics target for the area under the serum concentration-time curve/minimum inhibitory concentration (AUC0-24/MIC). A total of 210 samples were collected from 120 patients. A one-compartment PPK model with linear elimination best predicted the linezolid plasma concentrations. Linezolid clearance (CL) was 4.22 L h-1 and volume of distribution (Vd) was 45.80 L; serum uric acid (SUA) was a significant covariate of CL. The results of this study indicated that the standard dose was associated with a risk of overexposure in older patients, particularly those with high SUA values; these patients would benefit from a lower dose (300mg every 12h).

Machine learning for development of ECG-based prediction models for atrial fibrillation, thromboembolism and mortality in patients with heart failure

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) is a worldwide epidemic affecting more than 64 million people. Given its massive burden both socially and economically, early identification of individuals at risk for complications is important. Purpose To test the predictive performance of non-invasive models from 12-lead digitalized electrocardiography (ECG) and cycle ergometer for adverse outcome in individuals with heart failure. Methods 598 Patients scheduled for right heart catheterization due to unexplained dyspnea were screened. All ECG recorded at admission were further analysed using the software "ECG-Precision-Analysis V-1-2023" to measure the duration of amplified p-wave (APWD at 175mm/sec, 80mm/mV) and to confirm the diagnosis of inter-atrial block. Ergometer was performed in a supine position with increasing intensity adapted to individual capacity (25 or 50W). The maximum physical capacity (Watt-max) was determined. Follow-up (FU) was scheduled at 12-,36-, 60- and 120-month after discharge with the primary endpoint as MACCE (a composite of new onset of AF, ischemic stroke and peripheral embolism) in at baseline event-free patients and the secondary endpoint as all-cause mortality in the total cohort. Three machine learning (ML) algorithms (COX regression, BSR and LASSO regression) were used to select candidate variables and establish predictive models for MACCE and all-cause mortality. Model evaluation was performed in terms of discriminatory power using C-statistics for each endpoint. Results Prediction models developed using machine learning (ML) algorithms (COX regression, BSR and LASSO regression) identified Watt-max and/or APWD as core components for MACCE and mortality prediction . APWD and Watt-max were key components of ML models for prediction of thromboembolic risk and AF (MACCE) and reached accurate diagnostic performances (C-statistics up to 0.74), moreover, another model consisted of APWD and aIAB (advanced inter-atrial block) was established to serve as a reference to ML models with moderate performance for MACCE (mean C-statistics <0.70). All ML models for prediction of all-cause mortality included Watt-max and achieved C-statistics > 0.75. Conclusions In patients with heart failure, the combination of APWD, aIAB and maximum excercice capacity allow to identify patients at risk for AF and stroke, whereas mortality is predominantly predicted by maximum exercise capacity but not APWD.Kaplan-Meier curves for MACCE/MortalitytimeROC curves for MACCE/Mortality

A deep learning-based radiomics model for predicting lymph node status from lung adenocarcinoma

ObjectivesAt present, there are many limitations in the evaluation of lymph node metastasis of lung adenocarcinoma. Currently, there is a demand for a safe and accurate method to predict lymph node metastasis of lung cancer. In this study, radiomics was used to accurately predict the lymph node status of lung adenocarcinoma patients based on contrast-enhanced CT.MethodsA total of 503 cases that fulfilled the analysis requirements were gathered from two distinct hospitals. Among these, 287 patients exhibited lymph node metastasis (LNM +) while 216 patients were confirmed to be without lymph node metastasis (LNM-). Using both traditional and deep learning methods, 22,318 features were extracted from the segmented images of each patient's enhanced CT. Then, the spearman test and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were used to effectively reduce the dimension of the feature data, enabling us to focus on the most pertinent features and enhance the overall analysis. Finally, the classification model of lung adenocarcinoma lymph node metastasis was constructed by machine learning algorithm. The Accuracy, AUC, Specificity, Precision, Recall and F1 were used to evaluate the efficiency of the model.ResultsBy incorporating a comprehensively selected set of features, the extreme gradient boosting method (XGBoost) effectively distinguished the status of lymph nodes in patients with lung adenocarcinoma. The Accuracy, AUC, Specificity, Precision, Recall and F1 of the prediction model performance on the external test set were 0.765, 0.845, 0.705, 0.784, 0.811 and 0.797, respectively. Moreover, the decision curve analysis, calibration curve and confusion matrix of the model on the external test set all indicated the stability and accuracy of the model.ConclusionsLeveraging enhanced CT images, our study introduces a noninvasive classification prediction model based on the extreme gradient boosting method. This approach exhibits remarkable precision in identifying the lymph node status of lung adenocarcinoma patients, offering a safe and accurate alternative to invasive procedures. By providing clinicians with a reliable tool for diagnosing and assessing disease progression, our method holds the potential to significantly improve patient outcomes and enhance the overall quality of clinical practice.

#1469 Predicting mortality risk in incident dialysis patients using clinical predictors and patient-reported predictors

Abstract Background and Aims Prognostic prediction models can be used to identify dialysis patients that are at high risk of dying. By doing so, vulnerable patients can be monitored more closely and treatment can be intensified where needed. In addition, individualized predictions can help inform patients about their prognosis. Traditionally, prognostic models primarily rely on known clinical predictors such as age, comorbidities and laboratory markers. Although it is still unchartered territory in the field of nephrology, studies in other fields have shown that patient-reported predictors, like pain and fatigue, can be of use as predictors of survival. Predictive performance of current prognostic models for mortality risk amongst dialysis patients is subpar and we hypothesized that the addition of patient-reported predictors may improve predictions. Therefore, we aimed to develop a novel prognostic model for the prediction of two-year mortality in patients starting dialysis using both clinical predictors and patient-reported predictors. Method Data from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD) were used to develop two prognostic models for the prediction of 2-year all-cause mortality in incident dialysis patients: a base model consisting of clinical predictors and an updated model containing additional patient-reported predictors. Missing data were handled using a tenfold multiple imputation with fully conditional specification. The imputation model included all candidate predictors as well as the outcome variable of 2-year mortality. Predictors for the base model were selected based on existing mortality models and clinical expertise. Patient-reported predictors to add to the base model were chosen based on availability in NECOSAD, clinical expertise and literature describing patient-reported predictors. The models were developed using multivariate logistic regression and their discriminative abilities were assessed by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Results A total of 1956 patients from NECOSAD were used for the analyses. Of these, 447 (22.9%) died within two years after baseline (3 months after dialysis initiation). The base model contained the following predictors: age, sex, serum albumin, C-reactive protein, diabetes mellitus, hemoglobin, residual kidney function (GFR at 3 months), body mass index, cardiovascular disease, dialysis modality, malignancy and primary kidney disease. The discriminative abilities of the base model were moderate with a AUC of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77-0.82). The base model was updated using the following patient-reported predictors: mental component score, physical component score, general health perception, number of symptoms, symptom burden (measured with the KDQOL instrument) depressive symptoms, fatigue and pain. The addition of the patient-reported predictors marginally improved the predictive performance of the model achieving an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79-0.84). Conclusion The base model including clinical predictors was enhanced slightly by the addition of patient-reported predictors.

Construction and validation of a novel tumor morphology immune inflammatory nutritional score (TIIN score) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a multicenter study

BackgroundTumor morphology, immune function, inflammatory levels, and nutritional status play critical roles in the progression of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This multicenter study aimed to investigate the association between markers related to tumor morphology, immune function, inflammatory levels, and nutritional status with the prognosis of ICC patients. Additionally, a novel tumor morphology immune inflammatory nutritional score (TIIN score), integrating these factors was constructed.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on 418 patients who underwent radical surgical resection and had postoperative pathological confirmation of ICC between January 2016 and January 2020 at three medical centers. The cohort was divided into a training set (n = 272) and a validation set (n = 146). The prognostic significance of 16 relevant markers was assessed, and the TIIN score was derived using LASSO regression. Subsequently, the TIIN-nomogram models for OS and RFS were developed based on the TIIN score and the results of multivariate analysis. The predictive performance of the TIIN-nomogram models was evaluated using ROC survival curves, calibration curves, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThe TIIN score, derived from albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR), albumin–globulin ratio (AGR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and tumor burden score (TBS), effectively categorized patients into high-risk and low-risk groups using the optimal cutoff value. Compared to individual metrics, the TIIN score demonstrated superior predictive value for both OS and RFS. Furthermore, the TIIN score exhibited strong associations with clinical indicators including obstructive jaundice, CEA, CA19-9, Child–pugh grade, perineural invasion, and 8th edition AJCC N stage. Univariate and multivariate analysis confirmed the TIIN score as an independent risk factor for postoperative OS and RFS in ICC patients (p < 0.05). Notably, the TIIN-nomogram models for OS and RFS, constructed based on the multivariate analysis and incorporating the TIIN score, demonstrated excellent predictive ability for postoperative survival in ICC patients.ConclusionThe development and validation of the TIIN score, a comprehensive composite index incorporating tumor morphology, immune function, inflammatory level, and nutritional status, significantly contribute to the prognostic assessment of ICC patients. Furthermore, the successful application of the TIIN-nomogram prediction model underscores its potential as a valuable tool in guiding individualized treatment strategies for ICC patients. These findings emphasize the importance of personalized approaches in improving the clinical management and outcomes of ICC.

Prognosis prediction models for post-stroke depression: a protocol for systematic review, meta-analysis, and critical appraisal.

Post-stroke depression (PSD) is a prevalent complication that has been shown to have a negative impact on rehabilitation outcomes and quality of life and poses a significant risk for suicidal intention. However, models for discriminating and predicting PSD in stroke survivors for effective secondary prevention strategies are inadequate as the pathogenesis of PSD remains unknown. Prognostic prediction models that exhibit greater rule-in capacity have the potential to mitigate the issue of underdiagnosis and undertreatment of PSD. Thus, the planned study aims to systematically review and critically evaluate published studies on prognostic prediction models for PSD. A systematic literature search will be conducted in PubMed and Embase through Ovid. Two reviewers will complete study screening, data extraction, and quality assessment utilizing appropriate tools. Qualitative data on the characteristics of the included studies, methodological quality, and the appraisal of the clinical applicability of models will be summarized in the form of narrative comments and tables or figures. The predictive performance of the same model involving multiple studies will be synthesized with a random effects meta-analysis model or meta-regression, taking into account heterogeneity. Ethical approval is considered not applicable for this systematic review. Findings will be shared through dissemination at academic conferences and/or publication in peer-reviewed academic journals. PROSPERO CRD42023388548.

Suicide attempts and non-suicidal self-injury in Chinese adolescents: Predictive models using a neural network model

IntroductionSuicide attempts (SA) are a significant contributor to suicide deaths, and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) can increase the risk of SA. Many adolescents experience both NSSI and SA, which are affected by various factors. This study aimed to identify the risk factors and essential warning signs of SA, establish a predictive model for SA using multiple dimensions and large samples, and provide a multidimensional perspective for clinical diagnosis and intervention. MethodsA total of 9140 participants aged 12–18 years participated in an online survey; 6959 participants were included in the statistical analysis. A multilayer perceptron algorithm was used to establish a prediction model for adolescent SA (with or without); adolescents with NSSI behavior were extracted as a subgroup to establish a prediction model. ResultsBoth the prediction model performance of the SA group and the NSSI-SA subgroup were strong, with high accuracy, and AUC values of 0.93 and 0.88, indicating good discrimination. Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the clinical intervention value of the prediction results was high and that the clinical intervention benefits of the NSSI-SA subgroup were greater than those of the SA group. ConclusionsOur study demonstrated that the predictive model has a high degree of accuracy and discrimination, thereby identifying significant factors associated with adolescent SA. As long as adolescents exhibit NSSI behavior, relative suicide interventions should be implemented to prevent future hazards. This study can provide guidance and more nuanced insights for clinical diagnosis as well as a foundation for clinical treatment.

Weighted metrics are required when evaluating the performance of prediction models in nested case–control studies

BackgroundNested case–control (NCC) designs are efficient for developing and validating prediction models that use expensive or difficult-to-obtain predictors, especially when the outcome is rare. Previous research has focused on how to develop prediction models in this sampling design, but little attention has been given to model validation in this context. We therefore aimed to systematically characterize the key elements for the correct evaluation of the performance of prediction models in NCC data.MethodsWe proposed how to correctly evaluate prediction models in NCC data, by adjusting performance metrics with sampling weights to account for the NCC sampling. We included in this study the C-index, threshold-based metrics, Observed-to-expected events ratio (O/E ratio), calibration slope, and decision curve analysis. We illustrated the proposed metrics with a validation of the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA version 5) in data from the population-based Rotterdam study. We compared the metrics obtained in the full cohort with those obtained in NCC datasets sampled from the Rotterdam study, with and without a matched design.ResultsPerformance metrics without weight adjustment were biased: the unweighted C-index in NCC datasets was 0.61 (0.58–0.63) for the unmatched design, while the C-index in the full cohort and the weighted C-index in the NCC datasets were similar: 0.65 (0.62–0.69) and 0.65 (0.61–0.69), respectively. The unweighted O/E ratio was 18.38 (17.67–19.06) in the NCC datasets, while it was 1.69 (1.42–1.93) in the full cohort and its weighted version in the NCC datasets was 1.68 (1.53–1.84). Similarly, weighted adjustments of threshold-based metrics and net benefit for decision curves were unbiased estimates of the corresponding metrics in the full cohort, while the corresponding unweighted metrics were biased. In the matched design, the bias of the unweighted metrics was larger, but it could also be compensated by the weight adjustment.ConclusionsNested case–control studies are an efficient solution for evaluating the performance of prediction models that use expensive or difficult-to-obtain biomarkers, especially when the outcome is rare, but the performance metrics need to be adjusted to the sampling procedure.

Evaluating spatial resolution and imperfect detection effects on the predictive performance of inhomogeneous spatial point process models trained with simulated presence-only data

Evaluating spatial resolution and imperfect detection effects on the predictive performance of inhomogeneous spatial point process models trained with simulated presence-only data

Performance of the neural network-based prediction model in closed-loop adaptive optics

Adaptive optics (AO) technology is an effective means to compensate for atmospheric turbulence, but the inherent delay error of an AO system will cause the compensation phase of the deformable mirror (DM) to lag behind the actual distortion, which limits the correction performance of the AO technology. Therefore, the feed-forward prediction of atmospheric turbulence has important research value and application significance to offset the inherent time delay and improve the correction bandwidth of the AO system. However, most prediction algorithms are limited to an open-loop system, and the deployment and the application in the actual AO system are rarely reported, so its correction performance improvement has not been verified in practice. We report, to our knowledge, the first successful test of a deep learning-based spatiotemporal prediction model in an actual 3 km laser atmospheric transport AO system and compare it with the traditional closed-loop control methods, demonstrating that the AO system with the prediction model has higher correction performance.

Machine learning algorithm predicts urethral stricture following transurethral prostate resection

PurposeTo predict the post transurethral prostate resection(TURP) urethral stricture probability by applying different machine learning algorithms using the data obtained from preoperative blood parameters.MethodsA retrospective analysis of data from patients who underwent bipolar-TURP encompassing patient characteristics, preoperative routine blood test outcomes, and post-surgery uroflowmetry were used to develop and educate machine learning models. Various metrics, such as F1 score, model accuracy, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, Youden Index, ROC AUC value, and confidence interval for each model, were used to assess the predictive performance of machine learning models for urethral stricture development.ResultsA total of 109 patients’ data (55 patients without urethral stricture and 54 patients with urethral stricture) were included in the study after implementing strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. The preoperative Platelet Distribution Width, Mean Platelet Volume, Plateletcrit, Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time, and Prothrombin Time values were statistically meaningful between the two cohorts. After applying the data to the machine learning systems, the accuracy prediction scores for the diverse algorithms were as follows: decision trees (0.82), logistic regression (0.82), random forests (0.91), support vector machines (0.86), K-nearest neighbors (0.82), and naïve Bayes (0.77).ConclusionOur machine learning models’ accuracy in predicting the post-TURP urethral stricture probability has demonstrated significant success. Exploring prospective studies that integrate supplementary variables has the potential to enhance the precision and accuracy of machine learning models, consequently progressing their ability to predict post-TURP urethral stricture risk.

Deep Learning for Predicting Progression of Patellofemoral Osteoarthritis Based on Lateral Knee Radiographs, Demographic Data, and Symptomatic Assessments.

In this study, we propose a novel framework that utilizes deep learning and attention mechanisms to predict the radiographic progression of patellofemoral osteoarthritis (PFOA) over a period of 7 years. This study included subjects (1,832 subjects, 3,276 knees) from the baseline of the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST). Patellofemoral joint regions of interest were identified using an automated landmark detection tool (BoneFinder) on lateral knee X-rays. An end-to-end deep learning method was developed for predicting PFOA progression based on imaging data in a five-fold cross-validation setting. To evaluate the performance of the models, a set of baselines based on known risk factors were developed and analyzed using gradient boosting machine (GBM). Risk factors included age, sex, body mass index, and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index score, and the radiographic osteoarthritis stage of the tibiofemoral joint (Kellgren and Lawrence [KL] score). Finally, to increase predictive power, we trained an ensemble model using both imaging and clinical data. Among the individual models, the performance of our deep convolutional neural network attention model achieved the best performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.856 and average precision (AP) of 0.431, slightly outperforming the deep learning approach without attention (AUC = 0.832, AP = 0.4) and the best performing reference GBM model (AUC = 0.767, AP = 0.334). The inclusion of imaging data and clinical variables in an ensemble model allowed statistically more powerful prediction of PFOA progression (AUC = 0.865, AP = 0.447), although the clinical significance of this minor performance gain remains unknown. The spatial attention module improved the predictive performance of the backbone model, and the visual interpretation of attention maps focused on the joint space and the regions where osteophytes typically occur. This study demonstrated the potential of machine learning models to predict the progression of PFOA using imaging and clinical variables. These models could be used to identify patients who are at high risk of progression and prioritize them for new treatments. However, even though the accuracy of the models were excellent in this study using the MOST dataset, they should be still validated using external patient cohorts in the future.

Enhanced Pet Behavior Prediction via S2GAN-Based Heterogeneous Data Synthesis

Heterogeneous data have been used to enhance behavior prediction performance; however, it involves issues such as missing data, which need to be addressed. This paper proposes enhanced pet behavior prediction via Sensor to Skeleton Generative Adversarial Networks (S2GAN)-based heterogeneous data synthesis. The S2GAN model synthesizes the key features of video skeletons based on collected nine-axis sensor data and replaces missing data, thereby enhancing the accuracy of behavior prediction. In this study, data collected from 10 pets in a real-life-like environment were used to conduct recognition experiments on 9 commonly occurring types of indoor behavior. Experimental results confirmed that the proposed S2GAN-based synthesis method effectively resolves possible missing data issues in real environments and significantly improves the performance of the pet behavior prediction model. Additionally, by utilizing data collected under conditions similar to the real environment, the method enables more accurate and reliable behavior prediction. This research demonstrates the importance and utility of synthesizing heterogeneous data in behavior prediction, laying the groundwork for applications in various fields such as abnormal behavior detection and monitoring.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for glioma grade using machine learning.

Histopathological evaluation is currently the gold standard for grading gliomas; however, this technique is invasive. This study aimed to develop and validate a diagnostic prediction model for glioma by employing multiple machine learning algorithms to identify risk factors associated with high-grade glioma, facilitating the prediction of glioma grading. Data from 1114 eligible glioma patients were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, which was divided into a training set (n= 781) and a test set (n= 333). Fifty machine learning algorithms were employed, and the optimal algorithm was selected to construct a prediction model. The performance of the machine learning prediction model was compared to the clinical prediction model in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity to assess the performance of the prediction model. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the machine learning prediction models (training set: 0.870 vs. 0.740, test set: 0.863 vs. 0.718) were significantly improved from the clinical prediction models. Furthermore, significant improvement in discrimination was observed for the Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) (training set: 0.230, test set: 0.270) and Net Reclassification Index (NRI) (training set: 0.170, test set: 0.170) from the clinical prognostic model. Both models showed a high goodness of fit and an increased net benefit. A strong prediction accuracy model can be developed using machine learning algorithms to screen for high-grade glioma risk predictors, which can serve as a non-invasive prediction tool for preoperative diagnostic grading of glioma.

Lysosome-related genes predict acute myeloid leukemia prognosis and response to immunotherapy.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a highly aggressive and pathogenic hematologic malignancy with consistently high mortality. Lysosomes are organelles involved in cell growth and metabolism that fuse to form specialized Auer rods in AML, and their role in AML has not been elucidated. This study aimed to identify AML subtypes centered on lysosome-related genes and to construct a prognostic model to guide individualized treatment of AML. Gene expression data and clinical data from AML patients were downloaded from two high-throughput sequencing platforms. The 191 lysosomal signature genes were obtained from the database MsigDB. Lysosomal clusters were identified by unsupervised consensus clustering. The differences in molecular expression, biological processes, and the immune microenvironment among lysosomal clusters were subsequently analyzed. Based on the molecular expression differences between lysosomal clusters, lysosomal-related genes affecting AML prognosis were screened by univariate cox regression and multivariate cox regression analyses. Algorithms for LASSO regression analyses were employed to construct prognostic models. The risk factor distribution, KM survival curve, was applied to evaluate the survival distribution of the model. Time-dependent ROC curves, nomograms and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the prognostic models. TIDE scores and drug sensitivity analyses were used to explore the implication of the model for AML treatment. Our study identified two lysosomal clusters, cluster1 has longer survival time and stronger immune infiltration compared to cluster2. The differences in biological processes between the two lysosomal clusters are mainly manifested in the lysosomes, vesicles, immune cell function, and apoptosis. The prognostic model consisting of six prognosis-related genes was constructed. The prognostic model showed good predictive performance in all three data sets. Patients in the low-risk group survived significantly longer than those in the high-risk group and had higher immune infiltration and stronger response to immunotherapy. Patients in the high-risk group showed greater sensitivity to cytarabine, imatinib, and bortezomib, but lower sensitivity to ATRA compared to low -risk patients. Our prognostic model based on lysosome-related genes can effectively predict the prognosis of AML patients and provide reference evidence for individualized immunotherapy and pharmacological chemotherapy for AML.

MDs-NP: a property prediction model construction procedure for naphtha based on molecular dynamics simulation

In the context of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, molecular management has become a focus of the petrochemical industry. The key to achieving molecular management is molecular reconstruction, which relies on rapid and accurate calculation of oil properties. Focusing on naphtha, we proposed a novel property prediction model construction procedure (MDs-NP) employing molecular dynamics simulations for property collections and gamma distribution from real analytical data for calculating mole fractions of simulation mixtures. We calculated 348 sets of mixture properties data in the range of 273 K–300 K by molecular dynamics simulations. Molecular feature extraction was based on molecular descriptors. In addition to descriptors based on open-source toolkits (RDKit and Mordred), we designed 12 naphtha knowledge (NK) descriptors with a focus on naphtha. Three machine learning algorithms (support vector regression, extreme gradient boosting and artificial neural network) were applied and compared to establish models for the prediction of the density and viscosity of naphtha. Mordred and NK descriptors + support vector regression algorithm achieved the best performance for density. The selected RDKFp and NK descriptors + artificial neural network algorithm achieved the best performance for viscosity. Using ablation studies, T, P_w and CC(C)C are three effective descriptors in NK that can improve the performance of the property prediction models. MDs-NP has the potential to be extended to more properties as well as more-complex petroleum systems. The models from MDs-NP can be used for rapid molecular reconstruction to facilitate construction of data-driven models and intelligent transformation of petrochemical processes.

Orthodontic treatment outcome predictive performance differences between artificial intelligence and conventional methods

ABSTRACT Objectives To evaluate an artificial intelligence (AI) model in predicting soft tissue and alveolar bone changes following orthodontic treatment and compare the predictive performance of the AI model with conventional prediction models. Materials and Methods A total of 1774 lateral cephalograms of 887 adult patients who had undergone orthodontic treatment were collected. Patients who had orthognathic surgery were excluded. On each cephalogram, 78 landmarks were detected using PIPNet-based AI. Prediction models consisted of 132 predictor variables and 88 outcome variables. Predictor variables were demographics (age, sex), clinical (treatment time, premolar extraction), and Cartesian coordinates of the 64 anatomic landmarks. Outcome variables were Cartesian coordinates of the 22 soft tissue and 22 hard tissue landmarks after orthodontic treatment. The AI prediction model was based on the TabNet deep neural network. Two conventional statistical methods, multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) and partial least squares regression (PLSR), were each implemented for comparison. Prediction accuracy among the methods was compared. Results Overall, MMLR demonstrated the most accurate results, while AI was least accurate. AI showed superior predictions in only 5 of the 44 anatomic landmarks, all of which were soft tissue landmarks inferior to menton to the terminal point of the neck. Conclusions When predicting changes following orthodontic treatment, AI was not as effective as conventional statistical methods. However, AI had an outstanding advantage in predicting soft tissue landmarks with substantial variability. Overall, results may indicate the need for a hybrid prediction model that combines conventional and AI methods.