In this four-year longitudinal study, we examined how reading comprehension, as assessed with PISA reading achievement, literacy motivation, and school burnout symptoms at the end of comprehensive school predict the choice of educational track (academic or vocational) and educational attainment in upper secondary education. The sample consisted of 1351 Finnish students whose PISA reading achievement, self-concept of ability in literacy, task value in literacy, and symptoms of school burnout (cynicism and exhaustion) were assessed at the end of comprehensive school. Information concerning their educational track during the first year of upper secondary education was derived from self-reports and information concerning the completion of upper secondary education were collected from school registers. The results indicated that PISA reading achievement, self-concept of ability in literacy, cynicism, and exhaustion were unique determinants of educational track choice after comprehensive school. The results suggest that there is a need, in comprehensive schools, to consider not only the development of basic skills but also literacy motivation and school well-being, as these all can have a long-term impact on students' educational paths. Educational relevance statementThe analyses of the present data showed relatively modest predictive value on the part of PISA performance for adolescents' later educational outcomes. The results of the present longitudinal study suggested that PISA reading score does not predict the completion of upper secondary education but that it is a unique predictor of educational choice after comprehensive school over and above other predictors in the model, suggesting that the explanation for the impact of PISA reading on educational track choice is not due to gender, parental socioeconomic status, or motivational or well-being factors. In addition to the PISA reading test score, a high self-concept in literacy and also symptoms of exhaustion increased the likelihood of attending general upper secondary school, whereas symptoms of cynicism increased the likelihood of attending vocational school. The results suggest that there is a need, in comprehensive schools, to consider not only the development of basic skills but also literacy motivation and school well-being, as these all can have a long-term impact on students' educational paths.
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