Perceptions Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Immersed in Coleman's bathtub: multilevel dynamics driving new venture survival in emerging markets

PurposeThe authors probe the relationships between country institutional support for entrepreneurship and new venture survival. Specifically, the authors unpack the nuanced influences of entrepreneurs' perceived environmental uncertainty and their subsequent entrepreneurial behavioral profiles and how this particularly bolsters venture survival in contexts with underdeveloped institutions for entrepreneurship.Design/methodology/approachColeman (1990) ‘bathtub’ framework is applied to develop a model and propositions surrounding how and when emerging market entrepreneur's perceptions of their countries institutional support toward entrepreneurship can ultimately enhance new venture survival.FindingsEntrepreneurs' interpretations of regulatory, cognitive and normative institutional support for private enterprise helps them embrace uncertainties more accurately reflective of “on the ground” realities and stimulates constructive entrepreneurial behaviors. These are critical for increasing survival prospects in characteristically turbulent, emerging market contexts that typically lack reliable formal resources for cultivating nascent ventures.Practical implicationsThis paper has implications for international policymakers seeking to stimulate and sustain entrepreneurial ventures in emerging markets. The authors shed light on the practical importance of understanding the social realities and interpretations of entrepreneurs in a given country relating to their actual perceptions of support for venturing—cautioning a tendency for outsiders to over-rely on aggregated econometric indices and various national ‘doing business' rankings.Originality/valueThis study is the first to create a conceptual framework on the mechanisms of how entrepreneurs in emerging economies affect new venture survival. Drawing on Coleman's bathtub (1990), the authors develop propositional arguments for a multilevel sequential framework that considers how developing economies' country institutional profiles (CIP) influence entrepreneurs' perceptions of environmental uncertainty. Subsequently, this cultivates associated entrepreneurial behavior profiles, which ultimately enhance (inhibit) venture survival rates. Further, the authors discuss the boundary conditions of this regarding how the national culture serves to moderate each of these key relationships in both positive and negative ways.

Thriving in uncertainty: examining the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and corporate eco-innovation through the lens of dynamic capabilities

Introduction: Objective environmental uncertainty has important impacts on entrepreneurial decision-making, but entrepreneurs’ perception of uncertainty may be a more crucial factor. This is because objective environmental uncertainty may need to be filtered through entrepreneurs’ perceptions to influence their decision-making. Therefore, exploring how entrepreneurs’ perceived environmental uncertainty (PEU) affects their corporate eco-innovation behavior has significant theoretical and practical implications.Methods: Drawing on the dynamic capability view, we utilize data from the 2016 China Private Enterprise Survey (CPES) on 2,733 small and medium-sized enterprises (SEMs) to highlight the impact of entrepreneurs’ PEU on corporate eco-innovation. We also examine the moderating effect of government intervention (government subsidies and government official visiting) on this relationship.Results: Our study reveals a positive impact of entrepreneurs’ PEU on corporate eco-innovation, confirming the critical role of dynamic capability in corporate strategic adjustment under uncertain conditions. Additionally, we find that government intervention (government subsidies and official visits) has a positive moderating effect on this relationship, with entrepreneurs’ PEU and eco-innovation being mediated by corporate dynamic capability.Discussion: The study contributes to the literature on environmental uncertainty, dynamic capabilities, and eco-innovation, and provides practical implications for SMEs in developing countries. The findings highlight the importance of subjective perceptions of environmental uncertainty over objective uncertainty. The study also demonstrates that environmental uncertainty is not inherently negative, but can be managed strategically with dynamic adjustment and government support.

Structured visuospatial representations revealed through serial reproduction.

Working memory is a reconstructive process that requires integrating multiple hierarchical representations of objects. This hierarchical reconstruction allows us to overcome perceptual uncertainty and limited cognitive capacity but yields systematic biases in working memory as individual items are influenced by the ensemble statistics of the scene, or of their particular group. Given the importance of the hierarchical encoding of a display, we aim to characterize what structures people use to encode visual scenes using a nonparametric data-driven approach. In Experiment 1, we examine visuospatial memory for locations by asking participants to recall the locations of objects in a serial reproduction task. We show that people report items in a more compact structure than they initially were and organize them into clustered spatial groups. In Experiment 2, we explicitly introduce discrete color groups, allowing us to test whether the color feature governs the spatial grouping. We find that the spatial structures were color-contingent. By analyzing color groups, we circumvent the grouping uncertainty in Experiment 1 and further reveal that people compress color groups into collinear structures with similar orientations and equidistant spacing. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The managerial perception of uncertainty and cost elasticity

Theoretical research demonstrates the important role of uncertainty in shaping a firm's cost elasticity. We contribute to this literature by analyzing the inherent tension between the effects of uncertainty about unit contribution margin (CM) and sales volume on cost elasticity. We identify the occurrence of words implying uncertainty in managerial forward-looking statements and employ a novel methodology to construct distinct measures of the managerial perceptions of overall, unit CM, and volume uncertainty. We find a significantly positive (negative) association between the uncertainty about unit CM (volume) and cost elasticity. These associations vary predictably with firm and industry characteristics. Our empirical evidence supports the theoretical argument that managerial perceptions of uncertainty and its components differentially influence their resource allocation decisions and suggests that any analysis of the relation between uncertainty and a firm's cost elasticity should specify the type of uncertainty as well as the firm and industry characteristics.

The Interaction Effect Crisis Communication on Emotional Exhaustion: A Study on the Banking Sector of Pakistan

In this study the researcher wants to examine the impact of crisis communication on employee’s emotional exhaustion with mediating role of perceived uncertainties in the banking sector of Gujranwala district of Pakistan with the moderating impact of organizational intransigence, which may cause workers to rely less on official communication to alleviate those doubts. Moreover, this study analyses the impact of crisis communication on the perception of uncertainty based on uncertainty reduction theory. Furthermore, the moderating influence of social support in terms of perceived uncertainties on the relationship between crisis communication and emotional exhaustion is investigated in this study. 300 sample sizes are used by the investigator in this study, however 298 responses were selected for final analysis. Employees from all private banks completed a questionnaire in all over the Pakistan. The SPSS and process by Hayes used for the outcome analysis. SPSS is used for demographic results, Cronbach’s alpha and Pearson’s model correlation. Results of significances of variables would be determined in process by HAYES. Results indicates that Crisis communication has correlation with emotional exhaustion. Crisis communication also has significant negative relationship with emotional exhaustion. Moreover, crisis communication has a negative and significant relationship with perceived uncertainties. Perceived uncertainties have a positive and significant impact on emotional exhaustion. However, perceived uncertainties play a mediating role among crisis communication and emotional exhaustion Practical Implications.

Globalized Distributionally Robust Counterpart

We extend the notion of globalized robustness to consider distributional information beyond the support of the ambiguous probability distribution. We propose the globalized distributionally robust counterpart that disallows any (respectively, allows limited) constraint violation for distributions residing (respectively, not residing) in the ambiguity set. By varying its inputs, our proposal recovers several existing perceptions of parameter uncertainty. Focusing on the type 1 Wasserstein distance, we show that the globalized distributionally robust counterpart has an insightful interpretation in terms of shadow price of globalized robustness, and it can be seamlessly integrated with many popular optimization models under uncertainty without incurring any extra computational cost. Such computational attractiveness also holds for other ambiguity sets, including the ones based on probability metric, optimal transport, ϕ-divergences, or moment conditions, as well as the event-wise ambiguity set. Numerical studies on an adaptive network lot-sizing problem demonstrate the modeling flexibility of our proposal and its emphases on globalized robustness to constraint violation. History: Antonio Frangioni, Area Editor for Design & Analysis of Algorithms—Continuous. Funding: Z. Chen was supported by [General Research Fund Grant 9043424, NSFC/RGC Joint Research Scheme N_CityU105/21] from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council. S. Wang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 71922020, 72171221, and 71988101, entitled “Econometric Modeling and Economic Policy Studies”] and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [Grant UCAS-E2ET0808X2]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2022.0274 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2022.0274 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

PERCEPTION OF UNCERTAINTY AND GREEN INNOVATION: MACHINE LEARNING EVIDENCE FROM PUBLICLY LISTED FIRMS IN CHINA

Using a unique panel dataset consisting of 2997 Chinese manufacturing firms publicly listed in the A-share market between 2003 and 2020, we examine whether and to what extent a firm’s perception of uncertainty affects green innovation. After integrating textual analysis with a machine learning approach to measure perception of uncertainty, we find that a firm’s perception of environmental uncertainty negatively affects the number of green patents submitted or approved. The negative effect is weaker for firms followed by more professional analysts, operating in more competitive markets, or located in regions with better institutional settings. In addition, there is significant heterogeneity in the negative effect between non-state-owned versus state-owned firms as well as polluting versus non-polluting firms. The results are robust to different measures of green innovation and perception of uncertainty, and after addressing for potential endogeneity problem. Our study contributes to the literature on behavioral environmental economics by demonstrating that it is not only the environment uncertainty but also how firms perceive the uncertainty matters for green innovation and corporate social responsibility.

Firm's perception of economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation efficiency

Current Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) indicators are highly correlated with macroeconomic growth. To better reveal the EPU perceived by each firm, a firm-level EPU index is constructed using a text mining method. Using data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2020, this study examines the impact of a firm's perception of EPU on corporate innovation efficiency, computed using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) with a time-varying decay model. The empirical results show that corporate innovation efficiency decreases with a firm's perception of EPU. Additionally, the impact of traditional EPU indicators on innovation efficiency becomes statistically insignificant after the macroeconomic variable is added, demonstrating the importance of introducing firm-specific perceptions of EPU. Moreover, this negative impact is attenuated for firms with higher board independence and lower board ownership, while State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are less impacted. Furthermore, the impact of a firm's perception of EPU on corporate innovation efficiency is more pronounced for high-tech firms and those without political connections. We propose the following policy implications: First, it is vital for governments to provide stable economic circumstances to maintain corporate innovation efficiency. Second, mixed ownership reform is crucial in China; the risk-taking of non-state-owned firms will be greatly improved; thus, the innovation efficiency of non-state-owned firms will improve.

Calibrated Uncertainty: How In-Vitro Fertilization Patients Use Information to Regulate Emotion

The acquisition of information and its use in decision making and coping by people with health concerns have garnered much attention in CSCW. This study investigated patients' information behavior during a critical treatment, in vitro fertilization (IVF). Based on in-depth interviews with 29 IVF patients, this study uncovered several underlying drivers and mechanisms accounting for patients' information behavior. Their behavior is shown to be driven by coping concerns - specifically, dealing with the unpredictability of the treatment outcome, overcoming feelings of powerlessness and the sense of being out of control, and managing difficult emotionality. These factors shape patients' information needs and drive their behaviors in seemingly irrational but ultimately logical and adaptive ways. In contrast to the conventional wisdom that patients typically seek information that can help them fill knowledge gaps to resolve treatment uncertainty and foster their positive emotions, we discovered that in response to the desire to control their perceptions of irresolvable uncertainty and the difficult emotional needs of the moment, IVF patients frequently used ?calibrated uncertainty" - a psychological mechanism or state driven by the simultaneous seeking of varying levels and contradictory valences of certainty - to actively conduct targeted searches and actively use the information sought. This behavior has not always been understood by the IVF clinicians, who have assumed that information was primarily for knowledge transfer. This study shows that coping, emotion regulation, and information-seeking are inextricably bound together in the patient experience, and that this intertwining must be considered in the clinical setting for physician-patient communication and for patient-facing information. The findings have several valuable design implications for improved health informatics technology and service delivery systems.

How Does Firm-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China

Innovation is the main driving force of the sustainable development of enterprises. Economic policy uncertainty has increased dramatically in recent years due to events such as COVID-19, which will alter the business environment of enterprises and ultimately affect their innovation behavior. How economic policy uncertainty will affect corporate innovation has become a crucial topic, but empirical studies have not reached consistent conclusions, and few have noted the heterogeneity of different firms’ perceptions of uncertainty. This study used a textual analysis approach to create firm-level economic policy uncertainty indicators from the texts of annual reports of Chinese A-share listed firms. Based on the effectiveness of our measure of economic policy uncertainty, we further examined its impact on firm innovation. We find that our uncertainty measure has negative effects on enterprise innovation activity, and this negative impact is more significant among non-state-owned enterprises, and firms with higher financial constraints and lower government subsidies. We extend the measurement of economic policy uncertainty from the micro level and provide some suggestions for policymakers at the macro level. In the period of increasing uncertainty in the external environment, the government should try to maintain the stability and transparency of economic policies, and provide more targeted policy support to enterprises, such as by broadening their financing channels and providing innovation subsidies.

Investigating the Psychological Risk and Protective Factors Related to Fear of COVID-19 During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Iran

Objective: The current COVID-19 pandemic is associated with numerous psychological issues, such as anxiety and distress as a result of individual, health-related, social, and economic issues. This study aims to assess the general population in Iran for the negative impacts of the current pandemic on psychological well-being and to find possible protective and risk factors when facing such situations in the current COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A total of 317 people participated in an online survey in Iran from August 3, 2020, to September 20, 2020. Anxiety, depression, fear of COVID-19, emotion regulation, intolerance of uncertainty, illness perception, neuroticism, social support, and self-efficacy were evaluated. Results: The results showed that measures that assess anxiety, depression, emotion regulation, intolerance of uncertainty, illness perception, neuroticism, social support, and self-efficacy were significantly related to fear of COVID-19. Meanwhile, the results of regression analysis demonstrated that neuroticism, intolerance of uncertainty, and illness perception could predict fear of COVID-19 beyond and above anxiety and depression. Conclusion: Some factors, including neuroticism, illness perception, and intolerance of uncertainty are considered risk factors for mental health during this pandemic.

The role of line-orientation processing in the production of the Poggendorff illusion: A dual-task study.

Using a dual-task paradigm, the present investigation examined whether processes related to line orientation play a critical role in the production of the Poggendorff illusion. In Experiment 1, we assessed the magnitude of the Poggendorff illusion under three different task conditions. In the single-task condition, participants were asked to report how they perceive the alignment of transversal lines in the Poggendorff figure. In two different dual-task conditions, the participants were asked to read aloud the time displayed on a digital or analogue clock while also performing the Poggendorff perception task. The method of constant stimuli was used to calculate the point of subjective equality (PSE) and bistability width values, which represent illusion strength and perceptual uncertainty, respectively. PSEs indicated that the magnitude of the illusion did not vary between single, dual-analogue, and dual-digital task conditions, which suggests that the additional demands placed by the dual tasks had no effect on the illusion strength. Perceptual uncertainty and clock-reading errors were greater in the dual-analogue task condition. Experiment 2 revealed that the analogue clockface was more difficult to read than the digital clockface. Based on these results, we conclude that having participants perform a secondary task does not influence the magnitude of the Poggendorff illusion.

Development of business-to-business relationships in turbulent environments

This research examines business relationship structure, formation, development, and maintenance where the socio-political and economic environment for both exchange partners is highly turbulent. Based on multiple case-study data from 33 firms located in the Middle East, we find that turbulent environments create perceptions of uncertainty, dependence, vulnerability, urgency, and crises, leading to the formation of interimistic relationships different from those found within non-turbulent environments. These relationships are characterised by a constant search for new partners and the maintenance of a diverse portfolio of relationships. Relationships typically develop rapidly comprising three phases where a unique dynamic and structure is apparent. Dominant relationship characteristics include competence-based trust alongside control, high levels of instantaneous commitment, informal and rapid adaptation, frequent informal communication, and significant and ongoing efforts at strengthening social bonds with existing and potential partners.

Sensory and environmental uncertainty in perceptual decision-making

In perceptual decision-making, uncertainties regarding both noisy sensory information and changing environmental regularities must be considered. We aimed to clarify the relationship between these two sources of uncertainty using a combined motion discrimination and audiovisual reversal learning task with Bayesian modeling. As predicted, the influence of learned beliefs regarding audiovisual associations on perceptual decisions was greater under high sensory uncertainty. Critically, this modulatory effect was larger under high than low environmental uncertainty. Moreover, the degree to which observers relied on learned beliefs when making perceptual decisions depended on their individual tendency to change beliefs. While these findings suggest that weighting of the available sensory information against learned beliefs is modulated by their respective uncertainties, belief learning was not found to rely on sensory uncertainty. Unraveling of these interactive effects of sensory and environmental uncertainties in perception might aid in the understanding of aberrant perceptual inference in psychopathology such as schizophrenia.

Solving the product uncertainty hurdle in social commerce: The mediating role of seller uncertainty

Social commerce, which combines the transactional side of e-commerce with social interactions, has grown in popularity throughout the last years. Despite the fact that the issue of uncertainty in e-commerce has been extensively discussed, little is known about the mechanisms that customers of social commerce employ to lessen their perceptions of uncertainty. The role of various factors, including return policy leniency, information quality, seller popularity, seller reputation, and number of positive comments, in product uncertainty in social commerce is still little understood. Additionally, the social commerce literature indicates that more research is required on the mediating role of seller uncertainty. According to the empirical evidence from 471 customers, return policy leniency, information quality, seller popularity, seller reputation, and number of positive review comments all have significant negative effects on seller uncertainty. In addition, the results demonstrate that seller uncertainty partially mediates the relationships between these factors and customers’ perceptions of product uncertainty in social commerce. These findings reveal important implications for both practice and theory.

Real-Time Evaluation of Perception Uncertainty and Validity Verification of Autonomous Driving

Deep neural network algorithms have achieved impressive performance in object detection. Real-time evaluation of perception uncertainty from deep neural network algorithms is indispensable for safe driving in autonomous vehicles. More research is required to determine how to assess the effectiveness and uncertainty of perception findings in real-time.This paper proposes a novel real-time evaluation method combining multi-source perception fusion and deep ensemble. The effectiveness of single-frame perception results is evaluated in real-time. Then, the spatial uncertainty of the detected objects and influencing factors are analyzed. Finally, the accuracy of spatial uncertainty is validated with the ground truth in the KITTI dataset. The research results show that the evaluation of perception effectiveness can reach 92% accuracy, and a positive correlation with the ground truth is found for both the uncertainty and the error. The spatial uncertainty is related to the distance and occlusion degree of detected objects.

The Early Warning Mechanism of Public Health Emergencies Through Whistleblowing: A Perspective Based on Considering the Uncertainty of Risk Perception.

During the early warning period of public health emergencies, the information released by whistleblowers on the risk posed by the given event can reduce uncertainty in the public's risk perception and help governments take timely actions to contain the large-scale dissemination of risk. The purpose of this study is to give full play to whistleblowers and draw attention to the risk events, forming a pluralistic model of the risk governance during the early warning period of public health emergencies. We construct an evolutionary game model of the early warning of public health emergencies through whistleblowing that involves the government, whistleblowers, and the public, discussing the mechanism of interaction between these subjects under the uncertainty of risk perception. Furthermore, we use numerical simulations to analyze the influence of changes in the relevant parameters on the evolutionary trajectory of the subjects' behaviors. The results of the research are obtained by numerical simulation of the evolutionary game model. The results show that the public's cooperation with the government encourages the latter to take a positive guidance strategy. Increasing the reward for whistleblowers within an acceptable cost, strengthening the propaganda of the mechanism and the higher level of risk perception of the government and whistleblowers will promote whistleblowers' vocalization actively. When the government's reward for whistleblowers is lower, the whistleblowers choose negative vocalization with the improvement of the public's risk perception. If there is no mandatory guidance from the government at this point, the public is prone to passively cooperating with the government owing to a lack of risk-related information. Establishing an early warning mechanism through whistleblowing is important for containing risk in the early warning period of public health emergencies. Building the whistleblowing mechanism in daily work can improve the effectiveness of the mechanism and enhance the public's risk perception better when the public health emergencies arise.

Nonlinear effects of pandemic uncertainty on depression, pandemic preventive behavior intentions, and positive life attitudes: Moderating effects of high and low uncertainty grouping.

COVID-19 is difficult to end in a short time and people are still facing huge uncertainties. Since people's lives are gradually returning to normal, the sense of control and intolerance of uncertainty, which were mainly focused by past studies, are not specific to COVID-19 and will be more influenced by some factors unrelated to the pandemic. Therefore, they may be difficult to accurately reflect the individuals' perceptions of uncertainty. Besides, past research just after the outbreak mainly investigated people in high levels of uncertainty, we don't know the impact of uncertainties on individuals' psychological states when people gradually recovered their sense of control. To solve these problems, we proposed the concept of "pandemic uncertainty" and investigated its impact on people's daily lives. During October 20, 2021 to October 22, 2021, this study obtained data about uncertainty, depression, positive attitude, pandemic preventive behavior intentions, personality, and social support from 530 subjects using convenient sampling. The subjects were all college students from the Dalian University of Technology and Dalian Vocational and Technical College. According to the distribution of uncertainty, we divided the dataset into high and low groups. Subsequently, by using uncertainty as the independent variable, the grouping variable as the moderating variable, and other variables as the control variables, the moderating effects were analyzed for depression, positive attitude, and pandemic preventive behavior intentions, respectively. The results showed that the grouping variable significantly moderate the influence of uncertainty on positive attitude and pandemic preventive behavior intentions but had no significant effect on depression. Simple slope analysis revealed that high grouping uncertainty significantly and positively predicted positive attitude and pandemic preventive behavior intentions, while low grouping effects were not significant. These results reveal a nonlinear effect of pandemic uncertainty on the pandemic preventive behavior intentions and positive life attitudes and enlighten us about the nonlinear relationship of psychological characteristics during a pandemic.

Effect of anticipatory multisensory integration on sensory-motor performance.

Multisensory integration (MSI) is a phenomenon that occurs in sensory areas after the presentation of multimodal stimuli. Nowadays, little is known about the anticipatory top-down processes taking place in the preparation stage of processing before the stimulus onset. Considering that the top-down modulation of modality-specific inputs might affect the MSI process, this study attempts to understand whether the direct modulation of the MSI process, beyond the well-known sensory effects, may lead to additional changes in multisensory processing also in non-sensory areas (i.e., those related to task preparation and anticipation). To this aim, event-related potentials (ERPs) were analyzed both before and after auditory and visual unisensory and multisensory stimuli during a discriminative response task (Go/No-go type). Results showed that MSI did not affect motor preparation in premotor areas, while cognitive preparation in the prefrontal cortex was increased and correlated with response accuracy. Early post-stimulus ERP activities were also affected by MSI and correlated with response time. Collectively, the present results point to the plasticity accommodating nature of the MSI processes, which are not limited to perception and extend to anticipatory cognitive preparation for task execution. Further, the enhanced cognitive control emerging during MSI is discussed in the context of Bayesian accounts of augmented predictive processing related to increased perceptual uncertainty.

Intolerance of Uncertainty and Social Anxiety: An Experimental Investigation

AbstractIntolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a cognitive bias that leads to perception and intolerance of uncertainty and has associated negative cognitive, emotional, and behavioural responses. It plays a strong role in social anxiety disorder (SAD; Counsell et al., 2017). Our experimental study examined the impact of uncertainty related to a social stressor on SAD using a speech task. We examined features of SAD including anticipatory anxiety, anxiety during the task, willingness to perform the task, and avoidance of the task. Undergraduate students (N = 110, 88% female) with significant social anxiety completed a series of questionnaires, then were randomised to one of two conditions related to level of uncertainty about an impromptu speech task. The experimental condition (state IU) did not predict any of the outcome variables, while trait IU significantly predicted anxiety levels. Results indicate that increased uncertainty of a social situation does not impact acute anxiety levels in SAD and reinforce the strong role of trait IU as a transdiagnostic cognitive variable. Neither trait nor state IU predicted the willingness and avoidance variables. Results also highlighted the central role of the experience of anxiety on avoidance behaviours, above cognitive factors such as IU.